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Sterling Euro rates hit lowest point since November (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to tumble during the week with GBPEUR rates now at their lowest point to buy Euros since early November 2016.

The Pound has also fallen against all major currencies with big losses seen vs the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar.

The Pound has struggled as it appears, at least for the moment, that we could be facing a hard Brexit which means we may not necessarily remain in the single market which has sent shockwaves through the currency markets and therefore Sterling has fallen.

Personal debt per household has continued to rise and this means that with inflation also set to rise it may be difficult for the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the future as this could cause further problems and this has resulted in weakness for the Pound.

Indeed, Bank of England member Andy Haldane went on to say ‘interest rates are still very low, and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future.’

On the continent the Eurozone’s leading economy Germany has announced strong economic data in the form of GDP which came out at 1.9% for 2016 which was better than expected.

As the Eurozone’s strongest economy this has led to the Euro strengthening against the Pound creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Next week Prime Minister Theresa May is set to address the nation on Tuesday and hopefully we will have the announcement of the recent Supreme Court judgement coming soon.

However, MPs have been explicit in that they want Theresa May to clarify her position with regards the single market before any Brexit talks can begin.

With the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit I feel there are further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as well as other major currencies so if you need to send money abroad in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also able with my experience to help you with the timing of your transfer.

To find out more or if you’d like a free quote when buying or selling currency then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Supreme Court and Article 50 uncertainty causes Sterling weakness Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have continued to fall since yesterday afternoon as the positive gains following the Italian referendum seem to have disappeared.

The focus will now turn to the ongoing discussions with the Brexit discussion and the current court case involving the Supreme Court.

Prime Minister Theresa May agreed yesterday that she will publish her plan about how the UK will leave the European Union but the timing of the release is as of yet unclear.

It appears as though Theresa May has had her hand forced by Labour who wanted to see what the plan is in order to proceed with Article 50.

Labour would like the plan to be published by January which may coincide with the judgment made by the Supreme Court.

The next potential for volatility for Sterling vs the Euro will come on Thursday when the European Central Bank meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision.

The ECB have been really struggling to control falling inflation recently and their current Quantitative Easing programme does not appear to have had the desired effect.

Therefore, I think even if the central bank does not change the current QE programme any hints that more easing could come could potentially see Sterling make some gains vs the Euro.

The NIESR publishes it latest set of GDP data for the three months up until November at 3pm today and although this data is not the official release it is usually fairly accurate and therefore often has a big impact on exchange rates.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than by using your bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds. 

If you have a currency requirement and would like to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Italian referendum and the impact for Sterling vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates broke briefly past 1.20 overnight on the Interbank level as predicted in some of my previous articles. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced that he will be resigning following the ‘no’ vote in the Italian referendum aimed at reforming the constitution.

In the same way as David Cameron allowed the Brexit vote to happen Renzi authorised this vote to take place and it has ended up going against him forcing him to resign.

The Five Star movement who are aiming to hold their own referendum on EU membership are now likely to gain a bit of momentum and this could see a shift in the political feeling in France, Holland and Germany as they go to the polls next year.

Today, the Supreme Court will be looking at the government’s challenge to overrule the High Court in an attempt to ensure Article 50 will be triggered in March 2017 as planned by Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, the announcement about the ruling is not likely to come out until January 2017 so we could be in for a very uncertain December.

The European Central Bank are due to meet on Thursday and with inflation still running extremely low on the continent the ECB are struggling to combat this problem and could end up with the central bank announcing further Quantitative Easing measures on Thursday and if this happens this could also help push Sterling in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Generally speaking economic data in the UK has been relatively strong during 2016 and it is really only the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote which continues to keep the pressure on Sterling exchange rates. However, as Europe appears to be destabilising politically recently then I think we may see further gains for the Pound towards the end of the year.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The impact of the Italian referendum on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Euro has hit its best level to buy Euros with Sterling since September with the Pound making huge gains against all major currencies during the course of this week

On Thursday the Brexit secretary David Davis made claims that the UK could look to pay money to the European Union even after we have left the EU in an attempt to keep rights with the single market. This is one the main concerns for the UK’s negotiations and sets the tone that the UK may opt for s ‘soft’ Brexit. This helped the Pound to make some very big gains towards the end of this week.

On Sunday the Italians hold their own referendum on constitutional reform with Italian Prime Minster suggesting previously that he may resign if he is unable to get what he wants. Part of the reform is to centralise the banking system which is currently under huge pressure with large amounts of bad debt. If the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi and he does resign this could see Sterling Euro arguably challenge 1.20 during the early part of next week.

During 2016 we have seen many political upsets first with the Brexit vote back in June and then last month’s US election with Trump becoming the next President. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see a ‘protest’ vote with Renzi possibly resigning. Currency does not react well to political uncertainty and this is why I think we could see GBPEUR rates go in an upwards direction next week.

 

Next week the Supreme Court challenge concerning Article 50 is due to take place so I personally expect next week to be volatile to say the least. If you’re either buying or selling Euros in the weeks and months ahead and are worried about what may happen to exchange rates then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you. If I haven’t covered your currency pair and you would like further information again please get in touch.

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling close to 2 month high to buy the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has gained vs the Euro and the US Dollar after mortgage approvals in the UK jumped to over 67,5000 from the estimate of 65,000. This shows that even in the wake of the Brexit vote people are still borrowing and it highlights that the UK economy is still doing well in spite of the vote to leave the European Union back in June.

The good news about UK mortgage approvals is that it is a good indicator as to the overall health of an economy and one of the first sectors to fall in an economic downturn.

Over the weekend we could see a huge amount of volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates when the Italians hold their own referendum on Sunday regarding constitutional reform.

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suggested that he might step down if the vote does not go his way and political uncertainty often has a big negative impact so if the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi we could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.

Other European countries are going to the polls next year including France and with the right wing Marine Le Pen gaining 20% of the vote according to some recent polls this could see things changing on the continent politically next year.

If you’re in the process of selling your property in France or Spain and are worried about the Euro going in the wrong direction it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank and also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!

Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Autumn Statement to decide Sterling exchange rate movement (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up negatively this morning against all major currencies including vs the Euro and the US Dollar as we are now only a few hours away from the Autumn Statement.

The recently appointed Chancellor or the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver the news later today and it could be a tricky release bearing in mind the political events that have taken place so far during 2016.

One of the key issues will be how the Chancellor plans to move away from Osborne’s previous plan to cut the trade deficit by 2020. With GDP expected to be downgraded for 2017 from 2.2% to 1.3% it will be difficult for Hammond to provide too many positive ideas for the UK so I think we could see some problems for Sterling during today’s trading session.

The Pound has seen some gains recently as the tone from Europe appears to be softening towards the Brexit and ongoing talks are that we could see a soft Brexit with possible access to the single market when the negotiations finally begin.

The Italian referendum is also due in a fortnight so politically there are clearly problems ahead for the Eurozone and this could be reflected in Euro weakness in the medium term.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term then it may be worth looking at doing something shortly before the Autumn Statement is released.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Or call me directly on 00441494787478 and ask for me directly when calling in.

 

 

Sterling exchange rates receive another boost, but will the Pound hold onto its recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is the best performing currency in the G10 so far this week, after it was boosted yesterday off the back of some Brexit positive news from the UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May.

Whilst addressing the CBI conference (a gathering of the leading names from the world of business, politics and media) May gave a number of hints that the government will be looking to create new opportunities through ‘new and dynamic’ trade deals. She implied that she would be looking for a transitional deal for business after the Brexit which suggests that she’s open to the UK retaining access to the single market for as long as possible.

Readers hoping for a stronger Pound should continue to pay close attention to comments by leading figures within the UK surrounding the Brexit.

The Brexit is the biggest driver of currency movement involving the Pound, with any talk of the UK retaining access to the single market, the Brexit initiation process being delayed or extensions to the 2 year separation process being met well by the markets.

The Pound is at it’s highest level vs the Euro in 2 months after gaining around 6 cents in a short period of time, mostly due to the High Courts recent ruling, Trumps election victory and May’s comments yesterday at the CBI conference.

There are a number of major financial institutions that despite Sterling’s recent gains, are still expecting the Pound to decline to levels not seen for 5 years during 2017.

HSBC remains particularly bearish regarding Sterling’s projected value next year, and DNB Markets have specifically given the GBP/EUR pair a 12 month price target of 1.0869 which is almost 10 cents weaker than its current level.

If you would like to be kept up to date with the latest Sterling news, and would like to discuss the timing of an upcoming currency exchange you’re planning on making involving the Pound, feel free to get in touch with me (Joe) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk for a free overview. 

We’re here to help you make a well informed decision on when to make your currency transfer, and to help you benefit from highly competitive exchange rates as we’re one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joe on 01494 787 478. 

Sterling hits a two-day high after positive ‘Brexit’ comments, but is this just a short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

After facing an increasing amount of pressure throughout October, the Pound is under less downward pressure this afternoon after some positive comments from a Brexit minister.

At the time of writing Sterling is up against every major currency pair, and the reason behind the positive move is down to comments from junior Brexit minister David Jones, who suggested that any UK-EU treaty would be debated by parliament which is Sterling positive news as parliament is generally considered to be favouring a ‘Soft Brexit’.

By ‘Soft Brexit’ financial markets are referring to a long drawn out period of negotiations between the UK and EU whereby the UK retains access to the single market.

Those planning on making a currency conversion involving the Pound and another major currency, will need to be aware of how talk of a ‘Hard Brexit’ can negatively impact the Pound’s value. Earlier in the month a number of key public European figures such as Francois Hollande and Donald Tusk outlined their own ‘Hard Brexit” stance, and their comments sent the Pound downward.

Their comments added fuel to the fire after UK Prime Minister, Theresa May announced that the ‘Brexit’ initiation process will begin in March of next year.

Today’s Sterling positive comments have pushed the Pound up to a two-day high, and personally I think this has created a good opportunity for Sterling sellers as numerous financial institutions have predictions of a weaker Pound next year, with HSBC outlining GBP/EUR parity at the end of 2017 being one of the stand out predictions.

Tomorrow’s UK GDP Figures at 9.30am could further boost the Pound if the figure beats expectations, and feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this news event and the potential outcomes.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound and another major currency, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in directly on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe.