The pound has seen an excellent rally against most currencies after a recent run of upbeat UK data. The most recent gains for sterling exchange rates have been as a result of the manufacturing export numbers from the Confederation of Business Industry which arrived at a two year high.
These numbers are for the post Brexit period which gives us some clues as to the real impact of the vote to decide to leave the EU. Furthermore it signals a very buoyant manufacturing sector which is excellent news for the British economy in what is an uncertain period.
The numbers complement the other better data from last week which saw unemployment hold steady at 4.9% but with an improvement in the numbers of individuals claiming unemployment benefit. The bumper retail sales numbers for July also painted a brighter picture for the British economy which have also helped support the pound.
With no UK economic data releases today then focus moves to tomorrows UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. These figures represent the 2nd quarter of 2016 and include the 3 month period in the run up to the referendum.
My view is that there is a chance that these figures may see the very slightest deterioration as many businesses may have scaled things back in the run up to the vote. UK GDP has also been on the decline throughout 2016 so a move lower to 0.5% cannot be ruled out. This would be sterling negative as it would potentially be seen as a precursor to how the economy will react post Brexit.
This data release has the potential to give new direction for the pound tomorrow. Anyone holding pounds to either buy or sell currency would be wise to get in touch to talk through your options.
If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on firstname.lastname@example.org