Tag Archives: selling euro

Pound Sterling Forecast – Can Sterling win the Currency War? GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD Forecast

February 13, 2013   AUD, Economic data, Euro, Predictions, Sterling strength, Sterling weakness, USD

GBPEUR has not really found its feet so far this year and I see no reason this uncertainty won’t continue! Movements over 1% in a day have not been surprising and looking ahead I feel is only bound to continue. Since the start of the year buying €200,000 has become £12,115.40 more expensive.

With the possibility of triple dip recessions, the UK leaving the EU and confidence largely returning in Europe it is likely this current bad run for sterling, particularly against the USD and Euro, is far from over. The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) has this morning predicted the UK will actually avoid a triple dip recession but I fear snow and flooding last month has had a negative impact so far this quarter on economic growth.  To me it looks like the pound will only continue to suffer and things could very easily get worse. Have you made provisions for further movement?

This morning we have the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Historically BoE Governor Mervyn King speaking is GBP negative and I would not be surprised to see the pound suffer this morning due to further negative news surrounding the UK economy. If you are considering any transfers involving the pound you can speak direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 or make a direct enquiry with me at jmw@currencies.co.uk

Currency Wars – Race to Growth!

The G7 stated yesterday it was concerned about excessive JPY movements and that markets only must set exchange rates. Mario Draghi countered claims from last week that the ECB may intervene to artificially weaken the Euro to help exports in the Eurozone. This helped the Euro to strengthen in the afternoon and contributed to another day of volatile trading.

When an economy is not growing there are limited options to stimulate growth. One is to spend more to get the economy growing which in these austere times is unpopular. Another option is to artificially weaken the currency which serves to increase the competitiveness of the nation’s exporters and help drive the recovery.

There is currently much speculation about the extent to which major economies are engaging in this practice. Whether it is intentional or just a product of these increasingly interesting economic times we are living in, it is creating volatility on rates. Why not ask about our Market Watch service to help limit your exposure? Speak to me on (+44) 01494 787 478 or make a direct enquiry with me at jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD ‘Cable’ Forecast: Will the USD weaken?

Yesterday the US dollar touched a 6 month high against the pound presenting the best time since August to sell USD for GBP. Cable has been slowly ebbing down in the last few weeks although significant further USD moves look limited since risk appetite is still fairly high. Investors have confidence as evidenced by the excellent performance of stocks and shares this year. The poor performance of the pound looks likely to the main drag on this rate and I expect we will see rates in the mid 1.50’s for the
rest of the week.

The State of the Union speech by Obama last night helped to further fuel this confidence with his pledge to increase employment via increased capital spending and the introduction of a minimum wage. To me it looks like America will continue to spend its way to growth which does raise interesting questions over the debt ceiling talks due in May. Looking slightly further ahead the uncertainty this presents could result in a reversal of the current risk appetite and see GBPUSD head closer towards 1.50. If you are buying or selling US Dollars you can speak direct to the trading floor on (+44) 01494 787 478 or directly email me at jmw@currencies.co.uk

DATAWATCH – US Retail Sales 13.30 – US economic data has been fairly mixed lately so this could easily affect movements in the afternoon.

Important Eurozone News to affect Euro rates

Tomorrow we have Eurozone GDP which is predicted to affirm the Eurozone in recession. On the face of it, this appears to be good news for anyone buying Euros but do not be misled. The dire straits of the Eurozone are well known to investors and bad news will not be a huge shock. If you are buying Euros with pounds this release could provide the opportunity you need to get a little more on the rate but it could easily help the Euro if it is better news. Our personal proactive service aims to manage your risk

GBPAUD Forecast The prospect of an interest rate cut in Australia is preventing a significant strengthening of the Australian Dollar although the poor performance of the pound is dragging the rate down. On balance I expect the GBPAUD rate to decline back towards the 1.50 mark and cannot see any immediate return to the rates of 1.60 and above.

Markets often move ahead of the event so the best way to ensure you don’t suffer is to speak to your personal account manager here or if you don’t have one, open a free, no obligation trading facility by clicking here. The careful use of one of our contracts will ensure you do not lose out. For further information feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

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GBPEUR rates start the month falling (Steve Eakins)

February 1, 2013   Euro, Predictions, Sterling strength

GBPEUR rates have fallen again today braking limits and hitting new ticker levels under 1.16. (See info on what tickers are here) There has been a number of reasons for this downward move today including:

  • Eurozone manufacturing figures showed an improvement
  • German Manufacturing showed another improvement (any German data pushes the Euro price due to it being seen as the engine of Europe.)
  • Manufacturing in the UK falls further – adding to concerns the UK continues its road towards a recession again
  • UK banks again in a fight about potentially another £1 billion PLUS compensation claim due to miss-selling

News seems to continually paint a better picture for Europe over that for the UK. Last year there were worries that Greece would leave Europe in a referendum but not it’s the UK that could leave.  All this news adds more fuel to the risk of a recession in the UK plus adding pressure that the UK could loss the highly valued AAA credit rating.    I think most people can see good reason that rates could continue to fall in the near future. Even one of the banks suggested 1.10 being the low point this year.  This all adds pain to a lot of people with anything from property to services to buy in Europe.  What I would say is that to make the most out of your transfer, and limit the losses you are experiencing you need to be very aware of the markets movements and be ready to move quickly when an opportunity appears.  Over the next week there is a host of data released due from Europe and the UK which could surprise the market and give you the opportunity.  Here we offer a pro-active service helping you be kept aware of these SPIKES.  We offer award winning exchange rates that could easily save you money, even compared to money brokers.

For a no obligation chat about how to help and for a potential strategy on when to trade feel free to contact us today.  Either call on the normal number or email me directly at hse@curerncies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

hse@currencies.co.uk

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The Single Currency Finally Gets That Friday Feeling

May 11, 2012   Economic data, Euro, Predictions, Sterling strength, Sterling weakness

GBP/EUR rates touched past 1.25 this morning and with this resistance barrier seemingly broken, the question was where not if the current trend would stop. However, as analysts around the country are writing the euro’s obituaries, it seems the single currency has decided to buck the recent trend and start a mini revival of its own.

At time of writing the single currency had moved away from the 1.25 mark and was sitting comfortably in the low 1.24’s as we head into the weekend. This may not seem like much to talk about but given the current climate in Europe and the recent market trends I would say this is a mini victory for euro and proof that’s its consistent decline is not quite as cut and dry as some may think. To put it in perspective if you had made a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer this afternoon, you would have received an additional £1,300 compared to trading this morning.

GBP/EUR levels are at a three and a half year high however and this is certainly a great time for those looking to buy euro. Whilst it is tempting to wait for levels to continue to improve, there are a couple of issues that need to be considered. At present we are seeing Sterling gain sharply on the single currency due in part to better economic data in the UK but more so because of the on-going, well documented problems in Europe, which seem to be over shadowing any of those on our shores. This means Sterling is being over valued and for this reason it has the ability to snap back to some extent and if we saw some sort of shift in momentum or public opinion on Europe, then a move back to 1.20 -1.22 very quickly is not out of the question.

One of the other issues to consider is how much higher our government will actually let the Pound go, especially against the euro? We have to remember Europe is our largest trading partner (over 40% of our exports) and any continuing rise for Sterling against the single currency will seriously hamper our ability to trade, as goods will be too expensive for economies already struggling with high unemployment and poor growth prospects. Personally I feel they will talk down our economy in order to dampen expectation and hopefully keep the Pound at a reasonable level against the euro, in order not to alienate the region our exports rely on the most.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement or would like to be kept updated with the latest market information and trends, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.

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