Tag Archives: Selling Euros

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Strong ahead of Retail Sales Data (James Lovick)

Despite some sizeable wobbles at the top the pound continues to maintain the higher ground against most of the major currencies. GBP EUR is back over 1.16 and has recovered from Tuesdays sharp decline following a leaked report surrounding Brexit which turned out to not be credible. GBP USD is struggling to climb much higher but is safely over 1.24 for the time being.

UK retail sales data are released this morning and could create some volatility for the pound. Often in the Christmas run up there can be big spike higher in retail sales but I don’t think we are at that time yet.

EU inflation data is also released today and should give the European Central Bank (ECB) some new direction. The ECB has been fighting a losing battle against persistent low inflation and weak growth for years. With the Trump election victory expected to cause uncertainty for the Eurozone then it is likely that ECB President Mario Draghi will look to extend its Quantitative Easing scheme sooner rather than later. An extension of 6 months is on the cards and such action would likely see the Euro weaken. A weak inflation number this morning could be the signal that Mario Draghi will take action at the next ECB meeting in December. There may be a jump higher for GBP EUR on the back of a weak number. Clients looking to buy Euros should be aware of the December ECB meeting as it could provide a very good opportunity to buy Euros.

Clients who are holding sterling are finally seeing some better times after all the Brexit uncertainty. There may be a little bit further to go for the pound although there will inevitably be more problems to come for the pound in the form of Brexit. Clients who are selling Euros or selling Australian dollars for example would be wise to consider taking advantage of the excellent levels which are currently still available.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling hits a two-day high after positive ‘Brexit’ comments, but is this just a short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

After facing an increasing amount of pressure throughout October, the Pound is under less downward pressure this afternoon after some positive comments from a Brexit minister.

At the time of writing Sterling is up against every major currency pair, and the reason behind the positive move is down to comments from junior Brexit minister David Jones, who suggested that any UK-EU treaty would be debated by parliament which is Sterling positive news as parliament is generally considered to be favouring a ‘Soft Brexit’.

By ‘Soft Brexit’ financial markets are referring to a long drawn out period of negotiations between the UK and EU whereby the UK retains access to the single market.

Those planning on making a currency conversion involving the Pound and another major currency, will need to be aware of how talk of a ‘Hard Brexit’ can negatively impact the Pound’s value. Earlier in the month a number of key public European figures such as Francois Hollande and Donald Tusk outlined their own ‘Hard Brexit” stance, and their comments sent the Pound downward.

Their comments added fuel to the fire after UK Prime Minister, Theresa May announced that the ‘Brexit’ initiation process will begin in March of next year.

Today’s Sterling positive comments have pushed the Pound up to a two-day high, and personally I think this has created a good opportunity for Sterling sellers as numerous financial institutions have predictions of a weaker Pound next year, with HSBC outlining GBP/EUR parity at the end of 2017 being one of the stand out predictions.

Tomorrow’s UK GDP Figures at 9.30am could further boost the Pound if the figure beats expectations, and feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this news event and the potential outcomes.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound and another major currency, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in directly on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe.

Will Sterling Euro exchange rates fall further owing to the Brexit issue and Article 50? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have had an interesting week with the Pound struggling to make gains even though inflation has shown a rise. Since the Brexit vote back in June Sterling has suffered badly against all major currencies and we are now over 20 cents lower against the single currency and I think we could further losses for Sterling ahead.

Some analysts at Credit Suisse have predicted that we could see GBPEUR rates hit 1.05 soon and GBPUSD rates hit as low as 1.10. The reasons for the predictions are down to the higher possibility of a ‘hard’ rather than a ‘soft’ Brexit.

Since the news that Article 50 will be triggered in March next year Sterling has plummeted against both the Euro and the US Dollar and even positive UK economic data is doing little to lift Sterling’s value. Recently both Bank of England governor Mark Carney and Ben Broadbent have both spoken about the value of the Pound and don’t appear to be too concerned. They have both spoken out saying that the Pound’s value is not their highest priority so to me this signals that we could see an interest rate cut when the Bank of England next meet in November.

Typically when a central bank cuts interest rates this causes the Pound to weaken and I would not be surprised to see this happen next month. Carney also recently spoke out about the previous interest rate cut and claimed that it was a good idea in the wake of the shock caused by the Brexit and therefore again I think we could see further intervention by the Bank of England.

With interest rates at historic lows in the UK the Pound is not offering its previous attractive yields and this is another reason for the decline in the vale of Sterling against the Euro and the US Dollar.

If you’re in the process of buying a property in Europe before Article 50 is triggered in March it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future. In the last month I have noticed a huge interest in my people buying forward contracts to avoid the uncertainty for Sterling in the months ahead.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you competitive rates of exchange when buying or selling Euros so if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank or if you’d like further information then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

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Will the Pound continue to fall this year, and what to look out for tomorrow (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting couple of days for Sterling exchange rates as the currency has been undecided on its general direction of movement.

At the time of writing the Pound is actually down on the day against all major currency pairs such as the US Dollar, Euro and the Australian Dollar. Although throughout today’s trading session Sterling has spiked upward at times, offering clients the chance to book their trades whilst the exchange rate was quite considerably higher than it’s lowest point throughout the day.

The reason for the buoyancy towards the Pound this morning and at times throughout the day, is most likely down to the better than expected inflation figures yesterday which demonstrated a 1% gain in inflation over the past year, which is currently a healthy level although that could change if it gets out of hand due to the rapidly weakening Pound.

It’s on days like today whereby our clients benefit from the service we provide, as the monetary difference between converting currency at the bottom of the day’s exchange rate range, compared with the top of the day’s range can be huge when converting large amounts of currency.

We’re already in a position to improve substantially on the exchange rates offered by high street banks, but with our proactive service we’re able to often maximize our clients exchanges to their benefit.

There are a number of analysts from major institutions offering forecasts for the GBP/EUR pair of parity, which means they’re expecting the Pound to fall another 9% or so between now and in many cases, the end of next year. HSBC are perhaps the most prominent entity to make such a claim, so feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss your options regarding this potential fall as there are methods of protecting yourself against such a fall.

Tomorrow is expected to be a busy day for exchange rates due to the raft of economic data releases, with the European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision likely to be the most prominent. Should there be a change to the 0% figure expected tomorrow by analysts, I would expect to see some substantial movement within exchange rates involving the Euro as well as many other pairs who’s performance is interconnected with the ECB’s monetary policy.

The ECB’s release is at 12.45pm which gives you plenty of time to get in touch beforehand should you wish. You can call me (Joseph) directly on 01494 787 478 if you wish to regarding the news release and our service. 

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Why is the Pound so Weak? British Politics Dictate (James Lovick)

The pound has found a degree of support after a torrid two weeks although it would be unwise to think sterling couldn’t fall lower. It is exactly one week today since the flash crash which saw 6% wiped of the price of sterling in the space of a couple of minutes in overnight trade and never fully recovered. An investigation by the Bank of England is underway but there is a chance there may be a repeat of this kind of behaviour as no official reason has to date been given.

Inflation data is released early next week for the UK and this release will be very keenly viewed in light of “marmitegate” and the huge public interest in this. The matter appears to be resolved after a standoff between the bosses of Unilever and Tesco before things got ugly. The reality though is that prices will go up in the supermarkets as a result of the weakness in the pound. It’s just a matter of when it starts feeding through into the official inflation numbers. You heard it here first – When it happens it is all going to be brought back to Brexit with heated debates from both Remainers and Leavers which will create more volatility for the pound.

The general consensus now is that Britain will follow the course of a hard Brexit and the markets appear to have been caught out somehow unaware. Even European Council President Donald Tusk has stated it’s hard Brexit or no Brexit.

The pound is now under added strain with a high court case which commenced yesterday where a team of lawyers are trying to force the government to hold a vote in Parliament before Article 50 is invoked and for full consultation to take place. A decision is expected by the end of the month although it will most likely be referred to the supreme court and a slot has been made in December should this happen. The outcome though in this circumstance is expected to be concluded by the end of the year. This added complication of taking the government is just adding further uncertainty to an already volatile pound. Politics is now the largest driving force behind the pound! There has never been so much happening in these markets so it is certainly good to talk all of this through if you have a pending currency requirement.

Selling Euros?

Those clients who have a requirement to sell Euros would be wise to get in touch. There is so much happening in these markets even on a daily basis. The pound continues to remain under serious pressure following all the political developments and this situation is not going to change any time soon on the premise that Theresa May will be invoking Article 50 sometime in March 2017. This leaves us with almost another 6 months of Brexit limbo and there are likely to be some good opportunities around the corner.

Clients who are holding sterling are seeing a very volatile period at the moment which is unlikely to change any time soon. The Brexit jitters are keeping the pressure on the pound. If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling crashes as negative sentiment surrounds the Pound, will it’s value continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

The 52 week lows for Sterling exchange rates have deepened further during today’s trading session, and in the early hours of today’s trading session the marketplace was unsure as to exactly why.

Most are pointing in the direction of trading algorithms, or automated trading to put it simply, after in the early hours of this morning the Pound was sold off extremely heavily before correcting somewhat, although not back to the levels we saw prior to this almost unprecedented move.

The drop against the dollar was the second largest in history after the drop in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote earlier this year back in June, so that’s 2 historic sell off’s in this year alone.

Many reading will be wondering whether the Pound will continue to fall from these levels, and it’s looking like there’s a good chance that it will because the fundamentals coming out of the UK suggest the economy is healthy, even improving economic output since the Brexit vote (which the weaker Pound has assisted in some cases). Despite the healthy economy, weak sentiment is driving the Pound down, and investors are quick to react negatively to bad news out of the UK.

The are a number of key financial institutions forecasting a weaker Pound in the upcoming months and years, with HSBC today adding to a number of major institutions with predictions of GBP/EUR parity at the end of 2017. There’s quite some distance to go yet some for those working to a budget or timescale, it may be an idea to remove the risk from the currency exchange.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling is now trading around it’s lowest levels of the year, will it recover or get worse? (Joseph Wright)

We’re coming to an important time for Sterling exchange rates with  52 week lows either getting close to being breached, or actually being breached as GBP/EUR was during today’s trading session.

1.1542 was the previous 52 week low but today that figure has fallen to 1.1489, which is important for Sterling sellers to be aware of as at the moment the Pound is not putting up much of a fight when these levels are reached, which could indicate that further falls may be likely.

The Pound is currently trading at a 31 year low vs the US Dollar, but with regards to the Euro it is just at a 3 year low which is why I think the Pound has further to fall against the Euro than the US Dollar, as we’re not in uncharted territory when it comes to GBP/EUR exchange rates.

The falls in the Pound can be attributed to a number of things but what’s most likely driving the current fall, is the BoE’s most recent Quantitative Easing program, whereby £80bn more than expected will enter the economy as the Government buys up UK debt in an attempt to weather the ‘Brexit’ storm. The plans to make this substantial increase in QE were announced at the same time as the BoE’s decision to cut interest rates, and since then the Pound has been falling across the board.

Now that news is being released outlining how the UK economy is performing in it’s ‘post-brexit’ environment I envision further falls for the currency, as investors will be particularity sensitive to negative news out of the UK at the moment, for obvious reasons.

Major events to look out for this week are Tuesdays CPI figures which will offer us an idea of the movement within the cost of living in the UK. Wednesday’s unemployment data may also create volatility within exchange rates so do get in touch if you would like to discuss how these news releases can effect your upcoming currency conversion.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy or sell a foreign currency it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in and ask reception for Joseph on 01494 787 478. 

 

 

Sterling Outlook Uncertain over Brexit and August Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

Despite an excellent rally for the pound last week against all of the major currencies we are now seeing some resistance at these higher levels just below 1.20 for GBP EUR and 1.31 for GBP USD. There are two main reasons for these recent rapid gains – The formation of a new Conservative government with Theresa May as Prime Minister and also the decision from the Bank for England to not raise interest rates last week.

By ending the conservative leadership contest some two months early, this has given much greater political clarity which was absolutely needed. This single change may even help keep Britain out of recession as we move further forward into this uncertain period.

Theresa May will be visiting Berlin today to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and also French President Francois Hollande to open some very early dialogue between the leaders. It will be interesting to see the tone between them all later today as it is likely to have repercussions for both the pound and the Euro. If there are renewed suggestions that Europe will be tough on Britain then this is likely to see the pound weaken. I personally feel things may start to look more upbeat so there may not be too much ground for the pound to lose here.

The next essential date in the diary is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday 4th August. As interest rates were not cut as that markets had anticipated there is a growing expectation that action will be taken in August. Even Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond yesterday reiterated that Mark Carney has said there will be a package of monetary measures forthcoming.

For me this should keep the pressure on the pound from here on as two individuals have made clear the intention. If we don’t see a rate cut then we are probably looking at more Quantitative Easing which is also sterling negative. For anyone selling Euros this particular period could present you with some of the best opportunities.

Inflation data yesterday arrived slightly higher than expected but was not enough to drive the markets with these larger forces at work.

If you find this post useful and you have a currency requirement either now or in the future then it is well worth you getting in contact with me (James Lovick) personally. I work for a brokerage that has won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I would be quite surprised if I could not better the rates you can achieve with your current choice of provider.

It only takes a moment to get in touch and you may save thousands of Pounds so feel free to email me (James Lovick) on jll@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirement and a contact number and I will contact you as soon as I can.

Sterling Strength after Andrea Leadsom has Withdrawn from Conservaive Leadership Contest (James Lovick)

The pound is in for an incredibly volatile week with the Bank of England meeting this Thursday where we will discover whether an interest rate cut is made or whether Mark Carney and the Monetary Policy Committee will wait until August.

My view is that there will be an interest cut of 0.25% either this Thursday or otherwise in August and this is likely to see the pound weaken further. The prospect of Quantitative Easing will also keep a lid on the price of sterling.

However there has been a considerable development in British politics this afternoon. Conservative candidate Andrea Leadsom has officially withdrawn from the Conservative leadership contest. The market reacted with an immediate jump higher in the price of the pound, as a long drawn out contest will no longer be required with Theresa May set to become the first woman prime minister since Margaret Thatcher.

One of the reasons the pound has been so weak is because of the political uncertainty following the Brexit referendum. This announcement today in my view could be very good news for the UK economy going forward, and hence sterling exchange rates across the board.

With a new prime minister in place potentially very soon then there should be greater clarity over Brexit and how and when Article 50 will be invoked, which could be a real boost for the pound. The uncertainty now is of course when Theresa May will take over that roll although it seems unlikely a wait until September will now be needed.

The markets all over the world have been in a period of limbo and today’s developments have sped up the process by about two months. It will be interesting to see now whether or not Mark Carney sits tight on Thursday before making that interest rate cut he has made so clear will be happening over the summer.

For anyone selling Euros this may now be the time to take advantage of the excellent selling prices currently available. There could be some big changes brought forward in the political arena and a new level of confidence brought about which should see the pound rally. I wouldn’t expect major gains for the pound but this is a key turning point post referendum which may just take the edge off things for clients buying both Euros and dollars.

If you find this post useful and you have a currency requirement either now or in the future then it is well worth you getting in contact with me (James Lovick) personally. I work for a brokerage that has won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I would be quite surprised if I could not better then rates you can achieve with your current choice of provider.

It only takes a moment to get in touch and you may save thousands of Pounds so feel free to email me (James Lovick) on jll@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirement and a contact number and I will contact you as soon as I can.