Tag Archives: spain
Pound Sterling Forecast – Today may be key for Sterling exchange rates however I feel it may be yet another non event!
This morning we have another revision of second quarter GDP figures for the U.K and expectations are for there to be no changes anything other than this could lead to either a short spike for the Pound or Sterling weakness.
Gross Domestic Product essentially is how much an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and two consecutive quarters of negative growth places an economy in a recession (Just what we find ourselves in at present) and the key to officially being out of a recession is having one quarter of zero or positive growth -0.5% is still quite a way away from that so any improvement gives us a greater chance of creeping out of a recession in the third quarter of 2012.
I think the key for Sterling Exchange rates against other major currencies today will be what is going on elsewhere around the globe as we currently have riots in Spain and Greece and a flurry of data from the States due out over the next 24 hours.
Things have been a little quieter in South Africa and the South African Rand has gained back a little strength accordingly and I expect quite a lot to come out from Australia in the next week or two as the first few weeks of the month do tend to have a lot more in terms of economic data we also will see interest rate decisions across the board.
There is indeed an awful lot going on across the world at present, I even heard over the weekend that in Valencia many of the pharmacies are owed huge amounts of money by the Government for medicines and aid they have been giving out and the debt is racking up – Sooner or later this has to cause major complications and personally although many areas of Spain have requested bailouts I think there is no way of avoiding a full scale Spanish bailout in the coming weeks and months.
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Over the last week pound exchange rates have remained fairly flat with little movement however this changed yesterday when the Euro gained nearly a cent. This created the best time to sell Euros in nearly 2 months, trading at the high compared to the low yesterday would have made you over £500 more for every €100,000 sold back. This market movement was down to a sudden demand for Euros by city traders and again shows how quickly you need to be to take advantage. If you need to complete an exchange and would like to trade at the best price, register your interest via email firstname.lastname@example.org
Over the next week I agree with most specialists that Spain will become the main story;
- Their Stock markets are at a near 20 year low,
- Unemployment is at a record high
- Their banking system is failing
- Data showed yesterday their economy shrunk by 1.3% in the second quarter of 2012
- €72 billion was taken out of Spainish banks last month
It does not paint a great picture especially after the country’s most economically important region, Catalona, said it needed a €5 billion rescue package from Madrid. Even the Spanish deputy Financial Minister said that “the worst is yet to come.”
The Bank of Spain estimates it may have up to €180 billion in bad debt which many think may be more than can be raised. As a result I would expect GBPEUR to have a range of 3 cents from current levels over the next few weeks in either direction.
Please don’t just assume it will push GBPEUR up as we are unsure whether the UK will have to contribute to the bailout.
If you are exchanging currency contact us today and we can pro-actively help you try and catch your target rate. Either email me at email@example.com or contact me Steve Eakins on the normal number. Simply put if we could not help save you money we would not be in buisness so what have you got to lose? If you have a curerncy requirement please feel free to make contact.
The week ahead of economic data – Pound Sterling forecast against Euro, U.S Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and all majors – What will happen next with the Euro?
Euro Forecast and latest news from Europe
The Euro will remain the main talking point for weeks and months to come. Bond markets are showing extreme stress which is usually the first sign of a major crisis and the Euro has hit record lows against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar recently.
The real question everyone is asking is just how much further will it go? Personally I feel there is more weakness to come. Bond markets in Spain are now at Euro era highs and well over 7% (usually the unofficial trigger point for a bailout) Spain is the headline concern at present and on Friday Valencia, Spain’s most indebted region asked for assistance and an 18 Billion Euro assistance program aimed to assist regional finances.
Should Spain require a bailout then we will see a much different kettle of fish to the bailouts we have seen of late, personally I feel it will trigger the beginning of the end of the Euro for numerous economies and global markets worldwide will become extremely fragile to say the least. If you have Euros to sell or indeed are in the process of selling a property overseas a forward contract may be sensible. With a forward contract you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years for just a small deposit (which can be taken in Sterling) taking away the stress of continuing Euro weakness and leaving you in the peace of mind you know how much money you will actually receive for your property. Feel free to get in touch today on 01494 787 478 or email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org for more information on this contract type.
Pound Sterling Forecast The week ahead
Tomorrow gives us a fairly quiet start to the week with European Consumer Confidence the most notable data release due out in the afternoon, however personally I feel the markets will be fixated on what is happening with European bond levels I feel the Sterling – Euro rate will edge closer to 1.30 throughout the day.
Tuesday we have mortgage approvals data for the U.K which was fairly poor last time around, and retail sales figures for Canada later on in the afternoon. One thing that may throw up some volatility at any point in the day is the fact that Troika (lenders from the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union are due to visit Greece.
Wednesday we have inflationary data from Australia very early in the morning so anyone with AUD interest may wish to put protection in place by means of a stop loss or limit order overnight. U.K GDP data is also out at 09:30am on Tuesday morning and after a fairly poor performance from the U.K of late any sign of things looking up and the Pound may have a good day. Lastly on Wednesday later on in the evening those with an interest in New Zealand Dollars should be aware we have the interest rate decision for New Zealand at 10:00pm. No major changes are expected however a sudden cut in rates could lead to a sharp weakening of the NZD overnight.
Thursday is fairly quiet data wise however like with Monday bond markets will no doubt be key and by Thursday I expect the pace of speculation about the troubles with Spain to be at a maximum leading to very volatile rates of exchange.
U.S annualized GDP figures are due on Friday afternoon along with a host of other data. In times of uncertainty you do tend to see the Dollar gain strength as investors pull of riskier assets and look for a ‘safer haven’. The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents a volatile end to the week.
Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today email@example.com if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.
GBPEUR rates continue to climb up to 4 year highs of 1.28, but will it continue??
Well no one knows the answer to this but I personally would not be surprised to see it push up to 1.30. This is due to the continuing proof that the euro is falling as borrowing costs between the North and South widen further. The borrowing costs of France and Germany (Northern Europe) are close to 1.5%, while in Southern Europe, Spain, Portugal and Italy are continuing to climb up and over 7%. This is the fundamental reason why rates are continuing to climb, it is simply a massive concern for the Euro, in its current state the Euro is failing. Yes – they are making steps forward, Spain will probably get their bailout confirmed later today and Italy are rumoured to be close to going to the ECB with their hands out for more money, but the process takes too long and rates as a result will continue to climb as a result, in my opinion.
We all know the Pound is doing well against the Euro, but that does not mean the UK economy is actually performing well. I think we can all see the effect on the high street, it was again confirmed today that things are not improving as the UK government borrowed more money last month than expected pushing our total borrowed to over £1 trillion again!
So when do you trade if you are buying this coming week?
Honestly, I would hold out and continue to watch the rates. We are entering the volatile time of the month with little economic data, resulting in markets being driven by both demand and expectation. Use your broker to help you time the transfer to try and get the most out of your trade. For example I have a number of clients that were waiting for the next high. That came yesterday afternoon and I managed to help
90% of my clients which were ready to take advantage.
Saying all that, if I had told you we would be this high in January or even May I don’t think you would have believed me! So make sure to take stock and re-calculate how much you are willing to lose if rates start falling back!
If you would like a more personal discussion about your situation feel free to contact me, Steve Eakins on 01494 787 478 or via email me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org
Spain sees credit rating downgrade leading to further Euro weakness against Pound – US GDP data due out today market volatility expected for all majors
Credit rating agency Standard and Poors have knocked down Spains credit rating another two notches to BBB+. With Spanish unemployment nearing 25% and the economy looking in great danger of becoming Greece the part two….
Spain now appears that it may be the next weight piled on the European Central Bank’s shoulders in the coming weeks and months and as mentioned before this is a much bigger situation than we have had previously and will indeed make confidence in the Euro extremely low.
If you have Euros to sell then it may be prudent to look at all the options available to you fairly quickly, if you are in the process of selling your property overseas then a forward contract may be the right option, this is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance for just a small deposit… The deposit can indeed be taken in another currency if you have no access to Euros at this time. Email me directly if you would like more details on this email@example.com
U.S GDP data today
Todaywill see the release of U.S GDP figures to round off what has been a reasonably volatile week on the currency market. This data release can lead to volatility for all major currencies with the U.S being a key indicator as to how the entire global recovery is going as a whole. Poor figures could lead investors to be a little more risk adverse which may lead the them pulling out of the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR meaning that they weaken and are cheaper to buy. Should U.S figures be much
better than expected it may lead to investors being more prepared to take risk and these particular currencies may become much more expensive to buy. If you have a pending currency transaction to carry out then feel free to contact me directly as I can save you money by getting you a better exchange rate and save you time and hassle with a proactive and high level of customer service too. Email me today firstname.lastname@example.org
You can protect yourself from adverse market movements by
using such tools as a stop loss order or forward contract, contact us today on
0800 328 5884 if you would like a more detailed explanation on how these work.
Sterling drops in early morning trading…. interest rate expected to be on hold for 23rd month running however I feel an interesting day ahead
The Bank of England are expected to keep U.K interest rates on hold for the 23rd month running at midday today, however always be aware surprises may pop up.
For quite some time there has only been one member of the MPC (Monetary Policy Commitee) in favour of a rate hike, however in the minutes from todays meeting, usually announced on a Wednesday approximately two weeks from today should in my opinion show that a few more members are now in favour of the hike.
After reasonable indusrial and manufacturing data out today we are consistantly hearing mutterings of a potential rate hike, personally I think this may happen around March and for those of you that closely follow the markets you will be aware that an interest rate hike is gererally seen as positive for the currency concerned.
Markets move on rumour as well as fact so any mention of this potential hike by a member of the MPC may well lead to rapid Sterling gains, if you have a foreign currency to exchange into Pounds it may be prudent to consider your options or at least let someone who is constantly watching the markets know what you are looking to do.
I can do this for you and jump on the phone should we see any major market movements be it a great opportunity or the markets moving rapidly against you.
Also be aware of the current European bond sales….. It is Spains turn today so expect volatility from this too – Aidan has placed an explanation of this below but just get in touch for further information!
Personally I think we will be back above the 1.20 mark against the Euro and over 1.58 against the Dollar by the end of the week however as always you just never know!
If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly. Alternatively, if you would like assistance in finding your dream home abroad then feel free to visit www.overseaspropertysearcher.com and let one of our property experts make the hunt much easier for you.