Tag Archives: sterling exchange rates
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
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Sterling Exchange rates expected to drop after credit ratings downgrade and GDP Data due out Thursday
Credit ratings agency Fitch has downgraded the UK to AA+ after a period of low economic outlook and a poor performance as of late. the other credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the UK during February so this is the second agency to do the same. British Chancellor George Osborne has come out to defend his policy of austerity measures and and the government’s plan to continue with cuts.
The International Monetary Fund has already downgraded the UK towards the end of last week and suggested that Britain needs a different plan to get back on the right track. Last Wednesday the IMF published its World Economic Outlook and changed its growth forecast for the UK to 0.7% in 2013 from January’s suggestion that it expects the UK to grow by 1%. The impact this could have on Sterling exchange rates could be negative as a lack in confidence in the UK means less investment therefore potentially weakening the Pound.
European interest rates are not being cut in the short term according to ECB member Weidmann. The meeting held on Friday saw Sterling vs Euro exchange rates fall by approx 0.5% on last Friday’s afternoon following the announcement. With European interest rates currently higher than the UK and the Bank of England keeping QE on hold at the moment Europe is now seemingly a little more attractive than the UK.
With some analysts predicting a rate cut during this quarter this has given the Euro a boost which could see further strengthening early this week as the sentiment continues to drive the single currency. For information about contract types that might suit your currency requirement contact me directly via email Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk
The most important issue regarding pound sterling rates at present! How to get the best exchanges rates
The pound had been one of the worst performing currencies of 2013 until a few weeks ago when it bounced back from the very worst levels. The answer to the question of is the worst really over will be evidenced next week in the form of GDP data. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the output or growth in the economy and is a key factor in determining the strength or weakness of sterling.
What strategy should I adopt for buying or selling the pound?
If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds and you are keen to take a risk it may be worth waiting until next Thursday as there is an outside chance you could see much better levels by 2 or 3 cents. If you are not keen to risk then I would tee things up a bit sooner as it is probable the pound may become more expensive. Please note if you are considering any exchanges and would like to run through your options please speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The consensus among commentators seems to be that the UK has avoided the triple dip recession. This would mean that it is likely the pound will strengthen next Thursday. However because this expectation is quite high, if for any reason the data is bad we could see a big fall for the pound. Markets often move ahead of the event too, so it can be argued the pound is stronger lately due to this expectation. It is also true the pound is stronger due to events in Cyprus, money has moved out of Europe and despite all the economic woes for sterling, found its way to the relative safe haven of the UK.
If you are selling pounds to buy another currency then it may be wise to see how the data comes out next Thursday. This is because the pound may strengthen by a cent or so against most currencies. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen so the best way to ensure you don’t lose out unnecessarily is to register an interest with me so I can keep an eye on the movements for you. Rates can move up to one or two cents per day and on big volumes of currency this can become very costly.
If you are weighing up whether or not to sell or buy pounds and hoping for slightly more on the rate, then the outcome of this decision next week is key. You can be made aware of all your options and run through any ideas on what you feel may happen by speaking directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The authors of site are specialist currency providers who can offer much better rates than the banks and other sources. We also offer assistance with the timing of your exchanges and providing forecasts. Ultimately no one can tell you exactly what will happen, but our expert knowledge of what drives rates and guidance on the processes involved will ensure you make an informed decision.
Please contact me Jonathan Watson personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information at no cost or obligation.
I look forward to hearing from you and personally assisting you, thank you
Is now a good time to buy foreign currency with pounds?
GBPEUR Forecast – Will rates drop lower in April? Unlike the weather which remains as cold as a few weeks ago, the pound has shaken off some of the worst of this year. Concerns over Cyprus and the stability of euro zone banks, plus a slightly better performing pound indicate to me a fairly range bound few weeks of anywhere between 1.16 and 1.19. Significant gains for sterling look limited, as do significant gains for the euro. On balance I expect rates to be higher towards the end of the month as sterling slightly recovers and attention remains on the Euro zone economies.
What next for sterling? Will we triple dip? How can I protect myself? The next big event this month will be confirmation of whether or not the UK is in a triple dip recession. Numerous recent reports have hinted that the UK may have avoided the triple dip. I personally think this will be the case and we may see the pound find a bit of strength towards
the end of the month. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds it may be prudent to act sooner rather than later. The New Zealand dollar is at close to all-time highs against sterling as are many other currencies. For more information to help you decide on when may be best to enter the market you can speak to our trading floor direct on UK Freephone 01494 787 478 and check live interbank rates here.
Should you have anything to consider in the future our specialist service is designed to save you money. For a free, no obligation chat or quote to see jus how good we really are you can speak with me directly on jmw@Currencies.co.uk
Is the recovery around the corner for GBP? (Ben Amrany)
So with the pound nicely rising against a basket of currencies we learnt yesterday that the governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King felt that recovery for the UK economy is with in sight and that the weakening of the pound has gone low enough.
King who himself has recently talked the pound down has made a U turn and stated that he thinks “we are moving to a properly valued exchange rate. I think we’re probably there” This assisted sterling to rise over 1% against the USD, 0.72% against the Euro and we witnessed gains against the southern hemisphere currencies. If you would like to capitalise on these gains then please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the options that are available to you.
You could be reading this article thinking that King’s comments could pave the way for the pound to start to claw back the average loss of 6% across the board this year. Playing devils advocate if the governor may think that an average of 1.15 against the Euro and 1.50 against the USD is the right level for the currency pairs then surely this gives the bank scope to try and devalue the pound as soon as it starts to strengthen!! For this reason I would not get too excited.
At present many of the central banks around the world are happy for their currency to remain weak as it will help their exports. I tend to call this a currency war. With political, economic and credit rating issues in the UK the pound has weakened all by itself with out the Bank of England having to re stimulate the economy with more quantitative easing (QE).
If the pound is able to gain further by the end of the month I would seriously consider securing your currency even if you do not require the funds immediately. We have different contract options like forward buying which can help you minimise your risk to volatile exchange rate fluctuations should you not have full funds available at present. This can give you the peace of mind that your funds will not weaken any more. If you would like information on this or any other contract that we offer then please do contact me with your contact details and I will explain all the options that are available to you.
If you have any specific target levels that you would like to be informed about for any of the major currencies then email me at bma@currencies.co.uk
Thank you for reading
Ben Amrany
Interest rate decision for the UK fast approaching. This could be one of the most volatile days for the pound against the Euro and USD. (Ben Amrany)
Yesterday was a fairly positive day for the pound as it stabilised slightly over the last couple of days after the volatile times that we have witnessed over the last few weeks. In fact yesterday the pound was one of the best performing currencies out of all the majors and we saw some good gains against the USD and Euro. Although we had a good day the levels are still extremely weak for clients looking at selling the poound. If you are looking at purchasing the pound then you are currently trading at a two and a half year high for US Dollar sellers and a 15 month high for Euro sellers. While if you are one of the southern hemisphere currencies you are bordering at all time highs for selling Australian & New Zealand Dollars against the pound.
This morning the Governor of the Bank of England is speaking and I am sure you are all aware that they have made comments over the last few weeks that a weak pound is good for the UK economy so it will be interesting to see if his comments continue to weaken the once great British Pound.
Tomorrow will be the big day for the UK though. With the interest rate decision for March fast approaching we beleive that the bank of England may look at further monetary stimulus in the form of QE. If this were to occur then the losses could well continue tomorrow against a host of majors. Recently one memeber of the BoE even stated that we could have negative interest rates. If ever there are signs that the bank would like to weaken the pound those comments should frighten you. If you need to sell the pound you may be wise to look at your position before this key data release tomorrow morning. If you are buying then why not place a limit order in the market so you can try and achieve a better rate than what is currently available.
In the Euro zone there will also be an interest rate decision. If the ECB decide to cut rates (although unlikely) then this could counter act the potential QE in the UK. If the UK do QE and the Eurozone do not cut rates then I would exect the pound to weaken. If there is no QE in the UK and the eurozone cut rates then I would expect to see some sterling strength. So overall tomorrow could be very volatile. I do however feel the Euro will continue to gain as confidence is slowly moving back into the single currency.
If you have a requirement to buy or sell any major currency then please do conatct me with your currency requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk or call the trading floor and ask for Ben Amrany. I will strive to make sure that you receive a better rate than your bank or current provider plus we will make sure that you receive a very personal service to try and help you maximise your conversion by giving you the information to decide when may be a good time to do your currency conversion.
Thank you for reading.
Ben Amrany
With retail sales improving will the UK avoid recession? Busy week for the UK, what impact will this have on Sterling exchange rates?
Latest figures have shown that retail sales have grown at their fastest pace in three years. The British Retail Consortium said like-for-like sales were up 2.7% from the previous year the best since December 2009. This is some welcome news for the UK economy and suggests we are on the right move to avoiding the ‘triple dip’ recession. Should figures continue to show positivity this could be some much needed respite for the pound which has had a torrid time since the start of the year falling over 8% against the single currency, 7.75% against the greenback and 7% against the Australian dollar.
Should you have an exchange requirement involving sterling then this mornings retail sales data is certainly a welcome boost but I would err on the side of caution. Today is relatively quiet day but heading into Wednesday and Thursday there is plenty of data to spoil the party. This starts with a speech from Bank of England Governor Mervyn King at 09:45 GMT tomorrow. King, as with many of his Bank of England colleagues, has been very open in recent weeks and months about talking down the value of sterling. The theory behind this is the weaker the pound the better the UK’s exports and hence an injection of funds from overseas to the UK. Of course if this works in its simplest form then great and this could help the UK avoid recession and it is a stance I believe the bank will continue to take, certainly during the month of March, something that is likely to keep the pounds value in check.
Following Kings speech tomorrow, Thursday will see the UK and Eurozone releasing their respective interest rate decisions at 12.00 and 12:45. I would expect rates to remain on hold but watch out for any talk from the Bank of England about Quantitative Easing (QE). It could be a close call as to whether they extend as King himself voted for more QE in February but was out voted by his fellow monetary policy committee members. Should we see QE extended then expect sterling weakness. Possibly one to avoid.
Anyone looking at GBP/EUR should also watch out for the Eurozone release. Again expect no move from Mario Draghi but watch out for his post decision press conference held at 13:30 for insight as to the future policy within Europe.
Looking toward the Australian dollar interest rates have been kept on hold by the Reserve Bank overnight but keep an eye on GDP data at 00:30 tomorrow morning. Expected to show a slight increase month on month from 0.5% to 0.6% – those buying Australian dollars are likely to get little benefit in the short term, unless these figures are worse than expected.
With so much data released this week it is important to keep regularly updated with market movements and trends as the market is becoming increasingly volatile. To find out more about the currency service we provide contact the office on 01494 725353 or email me with a brief description of your currency requirement and timings and I will be happy to track the market on your behalf and to help you decide the best course of action to try and maximise your exchange. I am also very confident I can better any price you are offered by any other provider. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.
