Tag Archives: sterling forecast

Sterling Continues to Benefit From Eurozone Uncertainty (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling continues to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone, in particular the on-going economic downfall in Greece. Despite a deal being put in place we are already hearing rumours that Greece will not be able to meet its next repayment deadline in August, which if true is likely to throw the markets back into chaos again.

I do feel a general lack of confidence in the Eurozone is now so deep rooted that the EUR is suffering as a result. Its slightly ironic as GBP/EUR levels continue to trade near a 7 year high, not because the Pound is believed to be impenetrable but because investors cannot have any long-term faith in the EUR, whilst the Eurozone continues to be dragged down by individual member states. I do feel Sterling is over-valued against the EUR, possibly by as much as six or seven cents but until the markets can be confident that the Eurozone is once again moving forward together as a single entity, then the EUR will not be able to make any great strides against the Pound.

Eurozone data yesterday in the form of Consumer & Business Confidence was positive but this did little to help the single currency, with GBP/EUR rates moving back towards 1.43 on the exchange. We have a further key data out for the Eurozone today, with the latest inflation data and unemployment rate likely to cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates.

GBP/AUD rates have moved back towards a six and a half year high, with on-going concerns surrounding the Chinese economy hurting the AUD. Due to Australia’s trade links with China, any slowdown in this sector is always going to have a negative knock-on effect and with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) committed to devaluing the AUD in order to boost exports, I cannot see any major turnaround for the AUD in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Drops Sharply Following Poor UK Retail Sales Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has dropped sharply during Thursday’s trading following poor UK Retail Sales figures released this morning. With heavy losses against the EUR and most of the other major currencies, are we finally seeing the end of the Pound’s recent run?

This morning’s poor UK Retail Sales were certainly a shock to the system, following a run of positive UK data stretching back a number of weeks. The official figure of -0.2% growth was well below the expected 0.3% and immediately Sterling was hit, losing almost 2 cents from the high of this morning by the close of European markets. The question now will be whether this trend continues or are we witnessing another false dawn for the EUR? Personally I did feel the EUR was likely to find some support sooner rather than later and it may be that this morning’s poor UK data was the catalyst it required. With a deal now in place between Greece and its creditors we may find that GBP struggles to break back through the highs of last week. I’m not anticipating a huge slide for the Pound but EUR buyers may now look to secure their currency near the high and not risk any further losses.

GBP/USD rates have also dropped with the pair now floating close to 1.55 and it feels as though we are approaching something of a crossroads for the pair. With positive noises being made from both the Bank of England (BoE) and US FED regarding a potential hike in interest rates, I feel the markets are waiting for something more concrete form either central bank before making their next decisive move.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currnecies.co.uk

Bank of England minutes tomorrow and all eyes on GBP/AUD rates (Joshua privett)

Overnight the minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia show a mixed view of the current economic forecast for the Australian economy.

While they hinted that increased employment had ‘put a dent’ in the chances for another rate cut, this was balanced out by negative views on the current state of the world economy. As such the Australian Dollar is now lower once the minutes revealed developments in Greece and China would influence future rate decisions.

After such a morbid view, inflation data to be released tomorrow morning must be positive to stop a complete slide on Dollar value.

Today is a quiet day for data releases, so markets are looking to the release of Bank of England minutes and interest rate decisions.

Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, suggested that interest rates may rise at the turn of the year. This means we could see a change in the voting tally for raising rates tomorrow. This could bolster Sterling, yet the alternative (no change from the 0 out of 9 who voted for a rate hike last month) will do the opposite. It will show that Carney’s comments may be more bluster than concrete policy supported by the rest of the board, which could lead to Sterling weakness.

Call into the trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua to discuss how to take advantage of a specific economic event. A number of tools are available to help you buy at the high, or buy before the rates fall back to far to prevent any losses. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rates Drop Ahead of Prospective Greek Deal (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rates have dipped against the EUR during Friday trading, with rumors rife that a deal between Greece and its creditors is close.

The situation in Greece has dominated headlines for some time and the negative connotations attached to it have certainly handicapped the EUR. The latest developments indicate that a deal is getting closer, with the Greek Prime Minister now back tracking on proposals set out in the recent referendum. There seems to be some middle ground found in terms of the austerity measures required for Greece to receive further bailout funds and if this finally comes to fruition, then I expect the EUR to find support around the current levels.

GBP/EUR rates have dipped back below 1.39 and it seems as though the markets are starting to factor in a deal for Greece. Whilst I feel the Pound will struggle to break back through the recent highs, I don’t anticipate a major fall either and even these short-term opportunities for EUR sellers could be worth taking advantage of.

It is a different story for Cable exchange rates however, with the Pound making inroads against the USD throughout today’s trading. Due to the possible Greek deal it may be that investors are moving away from the safe haven Dollar and back into riskier currencies. This spike could be short-lived if a deal between Greece and its creditors is not upsurged through, so again it could be worth taking advantage of today’s improvement for the Pound.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Strong (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile week for Sterling, with big swings against most of the major currencies. We saw GBP/EUR rates spike back to an 8 year high before falling away during the week and with global uncertainty due to the Greek crisis, we have seen investors sell off their EUR positions. This has helped boost the USD, which is always considered a safe haven currency in times of global unrest and in turn this has boosted the Greenbacks position against Sterling over the past couple of days.

The biggest swing we have seen however has come today on GBP/AUD rates, which has seen the Pound gain over 2 cents and moved the pair back out to a fresh 6 year high. Australian Retail Sales figures were released overnight and came out worse than expected at 0.3%. This coupled with positive UK data this week has helped boost Sterling’s value and I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current spike and not gamble on such a volatile market.

GBP/EUR rates have dipped from the high of last weekend but still look very attractive for EUR buyers. With so much uncertainty surrounding Greece it is very difficult to predict exactly how the situation will evolve. Personally I feel a deal will be reached next week but with a referendum scheduled for Sunday, when the Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the proposals being put forward by Greece’s creditors, we may find the landscape and market conditions have changed considerably by then.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

Greek Bailout Negotiations Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rate continue to be affected by the unstable economic situation in Greece and as a result we have seen the Pound spike back above 1.40 this week. The Greek debt crisis continues to dominate headlines and with no agreement yet in place and with Tuesday’s repayment deadline fast approaching, the situation is looking very grave indeed.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has today resumed talks with Greece’s creditors, in the hope that an agreement can finally be reached after days of unproductive talks. Whilst Greece is trying to provide a reform package that will satisfy its international creditors, it is refusing to budge on key issues including pensions and public-sector wages. This is proving to be a major sticking point and unless Greece will negotiate the IMF’s position is unlikely to change. If an agreement is not reached then Greece will be given no further funds from their bailout package and will default on their debt, a scenario which is likely to spell the end of their participation in the single union.

However, I am still of the opinion that this scenario remains unlikely, certainly in the short-term. The IMF & ECB have remained steadfast in their support of Greece’s continuation as a member of the EUR and far too time, energy and most importantly money has been thrown at the situation for them to allow to implode. ECB President Mario Draghi will not want to lose Greece on his watch and my instinct tells me that they will most likely come to an 11th hour solution, which will sweep this under the carpet for another 6 months until we find ourselves in a similar situation again.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Finds Support During a Tough Week (Matthew Vassallo)

The recent volatility on Sterling exchange rates has continued during Wednesday’s trading, with the Pound gaining ground against both the EUR & USD. With GBP/AUD rates also sitting near a 5 year high, it seems as though the recent concerns over the Pound’s loss of value were unwarranted, at least for the time being.

GBP/EUR rates have moved back through 1.37, after a dip towards 1.35 earlier in the week. The mixed messages coming from the Eurozone regarding Greece are certainly not helping to steady the markets and with fears over a Grexit from the EU still rife, I do not anticipate this uncertainty to disappear anytime soon. It’s difficult to assess exactly how the markets are likely to react to any prospective Greek exit but whilst the uncertainty remains, it will be difficult for the EUR to gain any sustained momentum against Sterling. Therefore spikes like we’ve seen this week look to be good opportunities for EUR sellers.

GBP/USD rates have also spiked up, moving back through 1.55 at today’s high. It’s also been extremely difficult to gauge any trends on Cable exchange rates recently, with the US FED remaining unclear on whether they are likely to raise interest rates anytime soon. The improvement seen for the USD last week was off the back of rumours that we may yet see a rate rise this summer but in my opinion this remains unlikely.

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Sterling Rates Slide Again (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has lost more value during Friday morning’s trading, continuing the trend for the last couple of days. It’s been an extremely volatile week for the Pound but the underlying trend has been GBP weakness, particularly against the EUR & USD.

GBP/EUR rates have taken a sharp slide, with the pair trading in the mid 1.35’s at this week’s low. Although we have seen the Pound recover some of that ground, we are still trading almost 4 cents lower than last week’s high, with Greece taking up much of the headlines during this period. Today was meant to signal the first repayment deadline of the month for Greece but after days of talks with the IMF, they have been given more time to pay off the chunk of loan necessary to receive further funding, before they ultimately run out of money.

Whilst this deal has alleviated some short-term pressure, I personally cannot see how Greece will be able to come up with the necessary funds by the end of June. My feeling is that this is a ploy by Greece to put pressure on the IMF, with the hope they will renegotiate a more favourable bailout package. Either way this week’s developments have certainly helped to strengthen the EUR, along with European Central Banks (ECB) president Mario Draghi comments regarding the positive effect the ECB’s Quantitative Easing (QE) is having on the Eurozone.

GBP/USD rates have also dipped back to the lower 1.50’s, with the markets still factoring in a possible interest rate hike by the US FED this summer. Whilst I do feel this scenario is likely, even the possibility, coupled with some improved US economic data, has helped to strengthen the Greenbacks position.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Slides Following Draghi Comments (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s value has plunged against the EUR during Friday trading, with the single currency spiking by almost 2 cents at the high. This move has pushed GBP/EUR rates back below 1.40, proving once again how quickly market conditions and sentiment can change. Earlier this week we saw Sterling’s recent momentum against the EUR continue and with mixed reports surrounding Greece the markets seemed unsure which direction to take.

The catalyst for today’s EUR improvement is likely to be European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s comments during his press conference earlier today. He told the world’s central bankers that the current economic conditions inside the Eurozone had improved and it was looking “brighter today than it has done for seven years”. These comments immediately brought market support for the single currency and although the Pound has moved back above 1.40 this afternoon, I do feel the current levels should be taken advantage of if you have EUR to buy.

Despite these losses against the EUR the Pound has held its position against the USD and with rates back above 1.55 the Pound has certainly found some support following a tough couple of months. Cable rates had moved back below 1.50 recently but with uncertainty over when the US FED will raise interest rates, along with an inconsistent run of economic data, the Pound has managed to claw its way back up to the current levels.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

A Volatile Morning for Sterling Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been an extremely volatile day for Sterling exchange rates, with huge swings against the EUR, USD & NZD. The Pound was out of the blocks following the opening of European trading, with roughly a cent and a half gained on the EUR in less than an hour. These gains were quickly extinguished however, with the EUR gaining support following poor UK inflation data. The Pound had moved back towards 1.40 against the EUR at yesterday’s high but following this morning’s dip is now sitting around 1.3850.

GBP/USD rates have dropped sharply during Tuesday’s trading, with the Greenback gaining almost 2 cents from this morning’s low. The Pound has benefited from a run of poor US data, which pushed Sterling value up, although after today’s losses it is back below 1.55 on the exchange. It was widely anticipated that the US were going to raise interest rates this summer but this move looked ever more unlikely following the poor US economic data mentioned and this is one of the main catalysts for Sterling’s recent run against the USD. However, head of the FED Janet Yellen tried to downplay fears of poor US growth and even alluded to the fact they could still raise rates this summer. Personally I think this is highly unlikely but even the mere mention of this has helped ease the recent pressure on the USD, bringing some much needed respite.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

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