Tag Archives: sterling forecast
As pressure remains on the pound we have the best rates for selling Dollars to buy sterling for 10 weeks and very good rates for buying sterling with Euros. (Ben Amrany)
The pound has really been hit against a host of currencies over the course of this week. Trading is now down at a 10 week low against the USD and is down by around 2 cents against the Euro this week. If the weakening of the pound is having an effect on the currency you need to purchase then please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the options that are available to you to help you minimise your risk to the currency markets.
The fall for sterling all started with the drop in Inflation for the UK economy. As inflation falls it leaves the market to believe that the Bank of England are unlikely to raise interest rates and this then weakens the currency. Following on from the fall in inflation we then had the Bank of England release their minutes from their last interest rate and monetary easing decision on Wednesday. Once again this worked against the pound as three members of the Bank of England voted in favour of quantitative easing (QE). The reason why on this occasion it had such a big effect on sterling was due to the fact that the markets were expecting the number of members voting for QE to have dropped down to one or maybe two out of the nine. Recent growth figures
for the UK economy has been moving in the right direction so I think it was a surprise that three members still voted for further QE.
Going forward this could keep the pressure on the pound for the coming weeks up until the next Bank of England interest rate decision in June. Today the revised figures to the UK GDP came out the exact same so for those of you that were hoping this would have boosted the pound this did not happen. If you have an up and coming transfer to make I normally recommend my
clients act on spikes in their favour. The last couple of the weeks the pound has been fairly flat so now this movement has occurred many clients have once again capitalised on selling their Dollars and Euros to buy the pound. I feel in the long run that the pound will rise again against both the Dollar and Euro but be cautious as we have hit a low this year of 1.48 V USD and 1.13 v the EUR.
If you would like to speak with me you can call the trading floor and ask for Ben Amrany or alternatively email me at bma@currencies.co.uk with your requirement and contact details and I will discuss the best plan of action for your
circumstances.
Thank you for reading.
Ben Amrany
Why the sterling rally may now be over!
I have been watching with interest GBP movements of late very sure that we are soon to be witnessing a decline. Yesterday’s fall has continued today and I cannot see any immediate return to the kind of trading levels we saw earlier this month. If you are looking to sell the pound to buy a foreign currency say for an overseas property purchase or for business, buying sooner rather than later may be sensible. If you do not have full availability of funds a forward contract could be perfect.
Today the IMF has said the UK is a long way from from recovery and this is likely to weigh on sterling in the short term. We have pointed out the major problems for the pound in many posts and it is likely this is the start of another dip. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy sterling then you are looking at an excellent opportunity that may yet get better in the short term. Where we go from now will depend on the economic data releases before the end of the week but it is clear a negative sterling bias has developed. If you are selling beware of getting too excited as the trend will of course depend which currency pair you are interested in! For a full overview of your transfer and to be kept informed of the latest news on your rate please register your interest at jmw@currencies.co.uk
Important data this week will be the GDP data due tomorrow at 09.30 am UK time. Expectations for the release are at 0.3% growth but any deviation, (hesitation or repetition) could cause market movements! Friday we have German business consumer confidence and US Durable goods orders, all potential market movers. Sterling will I feel remain on the back foot but we could of course see some profit taking or even a ‘Friday Run’ to provide a quick boost. Remember too the Bank Holiday on Monday for the UK, this will affect payments internationally and you may find it difficult to book a price with a currency dealer on this day. Taking advantage of our ‘Market Watch’ service may be invaluable to avoid the disappointment of missing out on your desired rates over the weekend. As usual please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk to find out more, an account can be opened instantly and you can be trading within minutes. We offer same day payments so ‘not having time’ is no excuse to settling for poor exchange rates!
The sterling rally always looked to be under pressure from weaker UK data and the possibility of more QE down the line. It appears that just as quickly as it started the pound is likely to be weakening again soon.
As well as offering assistance planning and managing your exposure to the currency markets we also offer exchange rates for which we have won awards. For a free, no obligation discussion of all the events affecting your rate please feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to me Jonathan
I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in any way I can… Even if you are quite happy with the rates you are achieving a quick call or email to us to check what you are doing and at what rates could save you money.
Thank you,
Jonathan
The majority of our business is generated via referrals and recommendations. I would greatly appreciate you passing on my details to any friends or colleagues who may be in need of better exchange rates and / or market information.
Could we see some more GBP strength? Where next for Sterling rates? (Alistair Ryan)
Sterling has made a fair bit of ground against most major currencies over the past couple of days. This seems to have come off the back of governor of The Bank of England Mervyn Kings Inflation Report yesterday. This was his last inflation report before he hands over the reigns to Mark Carney in July and he announced an improved growth forecast on the state of the UK economy. Since the start of the financial crisis this is the first time data has been revised in a positive manner. This is a very positive boost for the pound and although a lot of people expected it and it could have been marginally priced in to the markets we have still seen Sterling gain against the majority of currencies.
Jobs data out for the UK yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag. It was announced that although the number of unemployed people had risen, the overall percentage of people out of work fell. It is usually the way in the UK that as soon as some positive data comes out there is another data release out to counteract it. Although this may not be an extremely bad stat for the UK it does highlight that there is still a lot of work to do but we are going in the right direction.
I generally feel that we will see more Sterling strength in the near future as it seems that we are seeing a lot more positive data coming out of the UK at present. We have recently seen better than expected figures for Manufacturing, Construction and Services and I believe that unless something drastic happens in any of the main sectors the pound will gain some more ground.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement we have a number of different contract options that can help safeguard your funds against market movements. If you would like to speak with one of our specialist, friendly currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates wobble but will an interest rate change GBPEUR forecasts (STEVE EAKINS)
Following the UK avoiding a recession late last week rates spiked up to the highest seen since the end of January. By definition a SPIKE does not last for long and these levels were slowly taken away through Monday and Tuesday trading. Many clients managed to benefit of these spikes following their registration to the SPIKE NOTIFICATION service here. (If this is of interest simply send your contact and transfer details to hse@currencies.co.uk)
But what next for GBPEUR rates of exchange?
Well the next focus point is the European interest rate decision which is released on Thursday afternoon. There is a view that rates may be lowered following pressure from countries trying to balance their debt burdens, Germany’s economy becoming sluggish and inflation falling across the single currency. There are two views in the market as to what would happen if they were cut from the current record low of 0.75% to 0.5%. Firstly traditionally when an interest rate is cut drops investors’ appetite so there is less demand and therefore weakens that currency. The second is that as in this case the suggested drop is so small, it could be seen as a proactive move and actually drive investment making the euro more expensive to buy.
I think the latter is more probably personally, however I am also leaning towards them not actually lowering rates this week. Either way the release will be key for ANYONE with a currency transfer to make as the Governor of the European Central Bank will be taking questions on the matter driving rates over the press conference so make sure you are close to a computer or have a broker actively keeping an eye on your situation as the news breaks. To put this event into contents it could move the markets by upwards of 1.5 cents adding £1,700 onto a €150,000 purchase.
If you would like to keep up to date on the event or to talk through how this could affect your currency exposure, speak to the experts. Feel free to get in contact with myself or the team here. My name is Steve Eakins and I am one of the elite traders here. Call on the normal number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
The most important issue regarding pound sterling rates at present! How to get the best exchanges rates
The pound had been one of the worst performing currencies of 2013 until a few weeks ago when it bounced back from the very worst levels. The answer to the question of is the worst really over will be evidenced next week in the form of GDP data. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the output or growth in the economy and is a key factor in determining the strength or weakness of sterling.
What strategy should I adopt for buying or selling the pound?
If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds and you are keen to take a risk it may be worth waiting until next Thursday as there is an outside chance you could see much better levels by 2 or 3 cents. If you are not keen to risk then I would tee things up a bit sooner as it is probable the pound may become more expensive. Please note if you are considering any exchanges and would like to run through your options please speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The consensus among commentators seems to be that the UK has avoided the triple dip recession. This would mean that it is likely the pound will strengthen next Thursday. However because this expectation is quite high, if for any reason the data is bad we could see a big fall for the pound. Markets often move ahead of the event too, so it can be argued the pound is stronger lately due to this expectation. It is also true the pound is stronger due to events in Cyprus, money has moved out of Europe and despite all the economic woes for sterling, found its way to the relative safe haven of the UK.
If you are selling pounds to buy another currency then it may be wise to see how the data comes out next Thursday. This is because the pound may strengthen by a cent or so against most currencies. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen so the best way to ensure you don’t lose out unnecessarily is to register an interest with me so I can keep an eye on the movements for you. Rates can move up to one or two cents per day and on big volumes of currency this can become very costly.
If you are weighing up whether or not to sell or buy pounds and hoping for slightly more on the rate, then the outcome of this decision next week is key. You can be made aware of all your options and run through any ideas on what you feel may happen by speaking directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The authors of site are specialist currency providers who can offer much better rates than the banks and other sources. We also offer assistance with the timing of your exchanges and providing forecasts. Ultimately no one can tell you exactly what will happen, but our expert knowledge of what drives rates and guidance on the processes involved will ensure you make an informed decision.
Please contact me Jonathan Watson personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information at no cost or obligation.
I look forward to hearing from you and personally assisting you, thank you
Negative data out for the UK yesterday…..Build up to GDP. (Alistair Ryan)
Yesterday was a very busy day on the markets for Sterling, making larger than expected movements against most major currencies. I personally believe that from now until UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are released next Thursday the pound will undergo heightened volatility.
Sterling took a major hit yesterday after unemployment data was released showing that the amount of people out of work in the UK has risen by 2.56m up to 7.9%. We saw this have a major effect on the pound in early trading yesterday but as the day went on Sterling seemed to make a small fight back against most major currencies. This negative data is not good for the UK and Sterling in the build up to GDP figures next week, remember if there is negative growth in the first quarter of 2013 then the UK will officially be back in a recession.
I am not expecting any large announcements over the next couple of days regarding the pound but it could be worth keeping an eye on Retail Sales figures this morning. With volatility in the market so rife at present and the slightest hint of positive or negative data managing to move the markets this has the potential to form a short term spike for Sterling rates.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like more information on how the currency markets work or the best way to obtain a favourable exchange rate then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk . We have a team of professional, experienced currency brokers here to make your currency exchange as easy and efficient as possible.
Sterling exchange rates set to have a busy week!! Best rates for buying your Euros and Dollars (Ben Amrany)
It turned out to be a fairly flat week for the pound in general with only a cent or so movement against the single currency. Against the USD though we witnessed a welcome boost with the pound climbing now over 4% from the lows of 1.48 recently seen. The spike saw the pound gain to 1.54 on Friday and I feel this represents a good buying opportunity. If you need to buy the USD and wish to capitalise on this current spike please do email me at bma@currencies.co.uk. Let me know what your target level is and I will keep you informed should the rate occur.
Comments from the Federal Reserve have led the markets to believe that they may be starting to slow their monetary easing programme. Couple this with the uncertainty of threats from North Korea the Dollar has taken a bit of a hit this week. Looking into next week against the Greenback their is a host of inflation data out on Tuesday and the FED’s beige book (The Beige Book reports on the current US economic situation) but apart from that significant economic data is a little bleak.
Here in the UK their is also a host of inflation data out on Tuesday and the biggest release will be on Wednesday morning when the Bank of England will release their minutes from the last interest rate decision. The minutes will show how many members of the BoE voted for interest rates to change and how many voted for the dreaded QE. The last few months there has been no QE and it has given the pound a slight boost. On Wednesday though should more members show that they voted for QE it will bring up the question will it happen in May? This is one of the key releases which can cause the pound to be very volatile against a host of currencies. If you have a transfer to make in the next few weeks Wednesday’s release may give you an indication if you should hold out a little longer before making your conversion. Email me with your requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can go over the options that are available to you to help you try and maximise your exchange. Plus the rate will be a lot better than your bank!!!!
If you do not trade next week then the next key release that the markets will be keeping a very close eye on will be the GDP figures on the 25th April. If data continues to be positive and the UK misses a triple dip recession then the pound I feel will remain stable and not nose dive. However I still cant see the rates pushing back towards the 1.20 verses the Euro. If we do hit a triple dip then I think the pound will test the 1.14 level against the Euro and the 1.50 level again against the USD. Things are certainly on a knife edge so if you do not want to take any risks with your funds their are good options that are available. Email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can go over all the info for you.
Not only do we offer you our expert opinion on the markets but we can help you achieve rates up to 4% better than some banks. If you have not contacted me in the past can you afford not too with the state of the pound. Even if you are buying sterling and the rates are attractive it is human nature to want to achieve as much as possible so feel free to contact me to help you try and maximise your currency exchange.
Thank you for reading.
Ben Amrany
