Tag Archives: sterling forecast

Next week is a very busy week for sterling exchange rates!

If you need to buy or sell the pound and are looking for a bit more for you money then next week could offer up some opportunities with plenty of economic data to move the market. With pound sterling exchange rates having taken a noted diversion south from previous high expectations, investors are keenly awaiting the next round of economic data to identify the next trend lines. To summarise I believe sterling is likely to fall on Tuesday before making a recovery on Wednesday and then falling again on Friday, let me explain why!

The Pound next week

Tuesday’s Inflation data will I believe cause the pound to fall owing to lower Oil prices and other factors having negatively impacted the Inflation numbers. Sterling is quite susceptible to these numbers since it is a key determinant in when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. Wednesday is UK Unemployment data which I believe will help the pound to rise as this data has been one of the most encouraging aspects of the UK economy in the last couple of years. Moving to Friday there is some very important Eurozone economic data which will I believe lead to Euro strength weakening the pound in the process.


The pound remains at elevated levels as investors still hold hope of a UK interest rate rise in the future yet this prospect has diminished greatly in the last few weeks. Further falls seem likely but there will be spikes to take advantage of! If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and have a particular target level in mind please let me know by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk, I can then monitor the market and provide information on how to achieve your rate.

The Euro next week

The important Eurozone news is Wednesday with Industrial and Manufacturing data. The corresponding data from Germany on Wednesday this week actually caused the Euro to weaken since it showed a surprise fall in the amount of activity in this ever so important aspect of the German economy. Fast forward to Friday next week and we have the very important Eurozone Inflation data which I believe could be positive for the Euro as it shows an improvement in the Eurozone economy and helps the Euro to strengthen.


The Euro’s period of consolidation has levelled off in the last week or so as fresh concerns over the Eurozone economy come back into focus. The reports have quite frankly been rather mixed from Europe and the GBPEUR and EURUSD rates have mainly been driven by goings on in the UK and the States. With the Federal Reserve appearing to have stepped back plans to raise interest rates, the USD has been sold off which has favoured the Euro. All in all I think if you need to sell Euros for sterling taking advantage of the current spike is worthwhile. To get the latest updates on the Euro to sterling exchange rate and receive  important information on the market please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

The USD next week

The most important economic data next week for the USD focuses on Inflation data towards the end of the week. I believe the main driver on the dollar will continue to be the prospect of when they will raise interest rates and this could easily slip into next year if Inflation is not an issue in the US. Movements on the USD are important because they will impact movements on the Euro and sterling, understanding what is happening here could help you to make a decision on your currency pairing.

The AUD, NZD and CAD next week!

These currencies remain susceptible to the recent trends in commodity currencies which has lately been positive. With Oil rising in value and the Federal Reserve holding off their plans to raise interest rates these currencies are enjoying a spike. I believe they could surge even further against the pound depending on next weeks data, here are some of the key points to look out for!

AUD – I think Thursday’s Unemployment data is the big one to watch and some reports suggest this could be a negative one! With the Australian economy coming under lots of pressure jobs are suffering and this could present some opportunities.

NZD – There isn’t too much important data next week for the Kiwi but I expect sentiments over the raising of the Federal Reserve Interest rate to affect attitudes towards the currency.

CAD – The rising oil price is a big factor in the market and we have already seen that causing the CAD to strengthen. Next week we have the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaking which may well lead to some spikes on the CAD as he seems likely to be impressed by the recent upturn following the improvements in the Oil price. I think therefore if you need to buy CAD then moving sooner rather than later is going to be the best idea.

Understanding all the important factors driving your exchange rate is key to getting the best deal and whilst I cannot tell you exactly what will happen I am confident I can offer something useful. For more information on all the events driving your exchange rate which may lead to improvements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I am very confident I can help with a better exchange rate than the banks and some insight into the market to help you make an informed decision.

Thank you,



Will Sterling Recover After its Recent Losses? (Matthew Vassallo)

We have Sterling’s value dip over the past couple of weeks with losses against most of the major currencies, in particular the EUR & USD. Whilst GBP/EUR rates are still looking very attractive when you consider recent history on the pair, we have seen the Pounds value decrease by the best part of 10 cents since the summer. This news has been welcomed by those clients selling EUR positions, as the single currency finally found some respite following months of negative downturns.

Whilst the Pound is unlikely to recover all of these losses any time soon, I still feel it will be well supported around the current levels and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it creep back up towards 1.40 over the coming weeks, although I do feel the EUR will now find support under this level. Personally I wouldn’t be gambling on a full recovery for the Pound as many factors, especially all the uncertainty surrounding Greece, has been removed for the time being. This to me indicates that we are seeing a much fairer value on the pair, than we did when rates were trading north of 1.40.

UK data has been steady with positive Manufacturing figures this morning tipping GBP/EUR rates back above 1.36. All eyes will now turn to tomorrow’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and the subsequent minutes. Whilst rates are likely to be kept on hold at 0.5%, it will be the minutes that may give investors the greatest insight into the central bank’s current thinking. Last month 1 member voted in favour of a rate hike and if this number increases, expect the Pound’s value to be boosted as a result.

GBP/USD rates have also dropped and it did seem that the US FED were likely to hike rates before the turn of the year. If this move had occurred I would have anticipated Cable exchange rates to move below 1.50 but with the rate hike now looking less likely over the last quarter of 2015, it may well be that GBP finds support above this threshold. We also have to consider the USD’s status as a safe-haven currency and with problems mounting in Russia and Syria, we may find investors continue to move their funds into USD, which is likely to help support the Greenback below 1.55 against Sterling.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast. (Dayle Littlejohn

In recent weeks GBP/ EUR has fluctuated between 1.35 and 1.38. Clients that have been looking to buy euros over the last 3 months in order to pay a company invoice or purchase a property, hopefully purchased their euros when trading levels were in the 1.40s. However for some clients this wouldn’t have been the case, as its human nature to try and get that little bit more and some forecasters were predicting 1.50 (unrealistic in my eyes).

My forecast for GBP/EUR for the next 2 months, I believe the euro will weaken against sterling and GBP/EUR exchange rates will increase towards the 1.40 level. My reasoning for this, the Greek elections begin on the 20th September and it wouldn’t surprise me if talks of a ‘Grexit’ will reignite. Depending on which party gains power, will influence how Greece proceed with the bailout terms, set with the ECB & IMF. I expect both parties in order to win more votes will exclaim their party will renegotiate the bailout.  Alexis Tsipras (previous Greek Prime Minister) has already done this.

Therefore clients looking to buy euros, I would recommend emailing me your requirements drl@currencies.co.uk and together we will put a strategy in place to maximise your trade. If you are holding onto euros this is your window of opportunity to sell and again I would recommend emailing me for further information and a free quote.

Sterling Rallies Ahead of Key UK Data Tomorrow (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has rallied during the early part of the trading week, with improvements against most of the major currency pairs. This will come as relief to many clients who had become concerned with the recent dip we’ve seen, particularly against the EUR & USD.

We have seen GBP/EUR rates spike back up over the past 24 hours after a difficult couple of weeks, which saw the pair head back under 1.35 during ‘Black Monday’. The fear was that the EUR may rally further following the positive developments in Greece and a run of better than expect Eurozone data. However, as often happens after such an aggressive move the markets do realign themselves and I believe that what we are seeing now. Today’s positive move for Sterling against the single currency is slightly surprising, given that Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures came out better than expected at 0.4%. I do not expect a full recovery and I would be surprised to see GBP/EUR rates head back above 1.40 under current market conditions. It will be interesting to see how investors view the Greek elections at the end of this month, which could cause more negative reports, which in turn may drag the EUR value back down.

Looking at Cable exchange rates and the Pound has also rallied against the USD this morning. This improvement has helped push the pair back above 1.54 at this morning’s high and brought some respite for clients holding Sterling, who have seen its value deteriorate over the past couple of weeks. With the markets anticipating an interest rate hike from the US FED before the Bank of England (BoE), it is likely this is being factored in, which is why we saw such a jump for the USD.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

ECB monetary policy statement focus for markets today (Joshua Privett)

Investors fleeing the stock-market recently following global turmoil have fled into the Euro and USD recently, much more so than Sterling. The Euro is cheap and has proven itself to be more stable over the past few months. The USD is itself the main currency that stocks are denominated in, so it tends to benefit in some way from any mass stock-sell off. Sterling has fallen by the wayside in a way, as there are certainly no prizes for third place in this saga.

However, the Euro’s recent strength is not only artificial. Germany has ratified the Greek Bailout, and Alexis Tsipras has called an election to purge the rebellious elements in his own party on September 20th. While polls are close, with the overall support in the Greek parliament for the bailout plan, it should be relatively simple for Tsipras to form a coalition.

Recent inroads have seen Eurozone unemployment to be at its lowest level in three years, and the cost of producing sell able goods for exports has fallen sharply – essentially the quantitative easing program introduced in January has been working, causing markets to rejoice.

The European Central Bank monetary policy statement this morning following its interest rate decision (expect no change) will likely reiterate this positive view. While the speech is normally a volatile period, with markets reacting instantly as Mario Draghi talks about various sectors of the economy in a positive or negative light, overall I would be expecting Euro strength from the event.

Those with Euros to buy should be looking to move ahead of this speech. GBP/EUR rates were being marveled as 7 year highs at the current levels we are seeing when they were first reached at the start of this year, and it seems that the tide is moving in favour of the Euro once more.

I strongly recommend calling me on 01494 787 478 and asking for Joshua for a free quote on your transfer ahead of the meeting at midday. If you quote this article I can guarantee beating any quote offered elsewhere.

Alternatively, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk for tailored advice on your transfer.


UK GDP Figures Released This Morning (Matthew Vassallo)

UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were released this morning and the figure of 0.7% growth came out as the market expected. We’ve seen a dip for Sterling against a basket of currencies and many investors are now trying to gauge whether this is just a short-term loss, or something more significant.

The Pound has struggled for the most part this week and it does seem as though its momentum has halted, after weeks of positive moves in the market. I still feel it is likely to find support around the current levels, as we have seen a steady run of economic data emanating from the UK for some time. However, whether we will see it recover all of the recent losses against the USD & in particular the EUR, is difficult to gauge under current conditions.

With the uncertainty surrounding Greece still hanging over the markets, despite the recent debt deal being agreed, we may have to wait to see how the situation develops there before the next major move is made. Any further negative developments are likely to push the Pound’s value back up but personally I feel it will struggle to move back above 1.40 unless there is another breakdown in negotiations.

We also need further confirmation of whether the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates sooner than the markets expect, again news that if confirmed is likely to benefit the Pound.

We’ve seen Cable rates drop below 1.54 this morning and again it does seem as if the USD is winning the battle at present, due to the likelihood that the US FED will raise their interest rate before the BoE does. GBP/USD rates have remained fairly stagnant over the past couple of months and I cannot see a major improvement for Sterling unless the BoE surprise the markets with a rate rise in the last quarter of this year.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Chinese impact on the pound! Will sterling keep falling now?

The Chinese impact on sterling exchange rates has been fairly pronounced with exceptional volatility on the stock market and also the pound. Essentially the worries in China have stoked fears that the UK will not be raising interest rates any time soon, perhaps for years! This has weakened sterling as investors seek alternative investments with their money. The volatility in the market is truly exceptional as everyone awaits China’s next move which could very easily tip the scales one way or the other. I expect the pound is going to continue to suffer and that anyone who needs to buy a foreign currency with the pound should move sooner rather than later.

What happens next will be largely determined by the Chinese who are key to making an impact on financial markets. If you wish to buy or sell the pound please get in touch with us to learn more about the latest forecast. Economic data has been quite positive for the pound in the last month increasing expectations the UK would raise interest rates. However the latest Chinese developments have really upset this balance presenting an amazing opportunity to buy the more risky currencies such as the Rand, AUD and NZD.

We are currency specialists here to assist in the planning and execution of your currency transfers. If you wish for a quote please fill in the form and we will be in touch immediately to work with you to help you get the best deal. Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Shares continue to plummet (Joshua Privett)

Sterling continues to lose value as financial markets go into turmoil. Since markets opened this morning the Pound is already 1.5 cents down against the Euro and looks set to continue sliding. Stock-markets in London opened 3% down already, with value evaporating rapidly.

Panic concerning the Chinese economy has caused a mass sell-off of shares, as investors are nervous that their assets will continue to be devalued. This atmosphere on the markets has completely changed the outlook for raised interest rates in the UK and US economy. Raising rates when it will be difficult for banks to make returns on a weakening global market would be self-destructive behaviour. Furthermore, low rates are considered a buffer against negative external market forces on a domestic economy, encouraging people to spend and keep the economy running from the inside.

Much of the recent run of Sterling and USD strength has been based around this accepted fact that they will be the first nations to raise rates in the Western World since the financial crash. This spanner in the works has likely added another 6 months/1 year to the timeline. Sterling’s value has deflated, and the Euro has benefited from investors moving away from Sterling and the USD searching for short-term returns.

I would strongly suggest those with Euros to buy over the next month to get in contact immediately for a free quote on their transfer. We will likely see 1.35 on the markets by the end of trading this morning, and this situation in China is not a short-term phenomenon. Call me on 01494 787 478 and ask Joshua – quote this article to receive a free quote on your transfer and tailored advice for your own situation. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling on the Slide! (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has taken another hit during Friday morning’s trading, following on from yesterday’s losses. GBP/EUR rates have now dipped below 1.39 on the market and the Pound is now trading 5 cents lower than it was a month ago.

We have seen the EUR gain support following news that the German government had ratified the Greek debt deal. This has been viewed as a positive step in trying to secure Greece’s future participation in the Eurozone and the EUR has benefitted due to this new found confidence. Personally I am sceptical as this is not the first time we have seen a  false dawn for the EUR, only for market sentiment to switch and the Pound regained its position very quickly.

We also had poor data for the UK in the form of the latest Retail Sales figures and this also dragged the Pound’s value down. Moving forward and whilst I do feel Sterling will struggle to move back to the highs we saw a month ago, I do expect GBP to find support around the current levels in the short-term. Whether this Greek deal is actually sustainable only time will tell but if I had EUR to sell I would certainly be considering my position following the positive move we’ve seen.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR crashing following FED minutes (Joshua Privett)

The Federal Reserve Bank of America’s minutes from their July meeting yesterday has altered the whole timeline for global interest rate rises. The consensus among analysts was that most were expecting an interest rate hike in September, but the views expressed in the minutes by the FED members has put seeds of doubt into the market prices had previous reflected a ‘sure thing’. The stimulus for their change in heart seems to be mainly attributed to a slowdown in China and prolonged low oil prices, which crashed again overnight, affecting all major commodity currencies like the CAD, USD and AUD.

What does this have to do with GBP/EUR rates?

Firstly, Sterling’s current strength is largely based around the established understanding that the UK will be following close behind the US in raising interest rates. Multiple reasons do not permit the Bank of England to raise rates before their cousins in the FED. Due to the current weakness in the Euro, should the UK be the first Western country to raise interest rates, the value of the Pound would go out of control, and our largest trading partner will not be able to afford our goods. As such the delay in America for raising rates will have a similar delay for the UK. This is why the Pound is weakening across the board against all major currencies as investors move away to get more short-term returns elsewhere. 

Furthermore, Euro strength is why these rates are crashing rather than simply move gradually against the favour of Euro buyers. Yesterday saw GBP/EUR fall following increased confidence in the Eurozone, a result of the final ratification of the Greek bailout deal. This was exacerbated by the FED minutes as, traditionally, when the USD weakens this translates into Euro strength. USD/EUR is the most commonly traded currency pair in the world, so USD weakening usually means that investors are selling off their USD for EUR, particularly while the single currency is a bargain.

There are no expected data releases today to counteract this rapid crash in GBP/EUR rates. I fully expect that rates will drop below 1.40 today. Those with Euros to buy over the next month will see their budgets tightened further down the road. This change to interest rate timelines will put long-term pressure on the Pound and not be reversed in a week.

I strongly recommend calling me on 01494 787 478 and asking for Joshua in order to receive a free quote, and some tailored advice to your particular situation. I guarantee to beat any rate offered by banks and other sources and will happily peg these current buying levels until the end of the year at no additional cost. Alternatively email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk for me information, particularly if you are a Euro seller and want advice on how to ride this move in your favour.

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