Tag Archives: sterling forecast

How much higher can sterling go? Important upcoming events for the pound!

Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!

Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.

Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.

Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.

Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.

For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Will sterling rise higher still? When will this happen?

This week we predicted the pound could rise higher and so it has. Improvements in the Unemployment picture have given sterling a leg up against its peers which represents yet more fantastic opportunities for anyone buying a foreign currency with sterling. Assuming the forecasts for GBP strength are right, how high will the pound rise and when will we see the next spikes?

Despite the awareness of problems in the UK’s recent economic surge there appears to be little stopping the pound at present. A suspected housing bubble, problems of low wages and fears of an over reliance on consumer spending have all done little to dent confidence in the pound which seems to be going from strength to strength.The overriding factor is the fact the UK is on an economic upturn well established versus a Eurozone effectively going backwards and a US still reliant on a QE programme. The UK offers an excellent place to invest with the prospect of higher interest rates and a more buoyant economy in 2015.

Next week is a range of data to move the market, all of which should be quite interesting and could provide yet more opportunities for the brave! Wednesday and Friday next week look like the busier days to me. Wednesday we have the Bank of England Minutes form their latest meeting and Friday PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) data. Last month PSNB caused the pound to drop a little so these releases are by no means guarantees you will get more for your money!

Ultimately no one can tell you what is going to happen on the market. However our position as currency market specialists gives us strong insight into what may happen, plus we have the experience and expertise in place to properly manage your exposure to the currency markets. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling hits the big time!

Sterling has hit the big time this year as it shakes off the worst of the last few years and sets sights on the future. The UK’s economic position has improved massively of late and is arguably now one of the worlds leading economies again. Especially when compared to other leading economies and currencies like for example the US and Euro.

There are risks up ahead of course, notably the Scottish Referendum and any further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. On balance we would have to expect sterling to remain well supported and should it manage to avoid the more obvious risks ahead of next year, we could see further strength in the new year as it becomes more apparent the UK’s recovery is underway and the prospect of raising interest rates looms.

Should you have any currency transfers please don’t hesitate to contact us for a forecast on just where the rates could be once your transaction is settled. Getting the best rates through the multiple sources we trade through, we are very well placed to help you maximise any transfers.

 

For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Busy week on exchange rates! What will happen to your exchange?

Recent positive sterling moves have been exacerbated by improvements in the currency outlook for the pound. Services data today showed yet further improvements which should mean we expect only further GBP strength against most currencies, but not all! Read on to get a quick overview of important things to note regarding your pair. For a more detailed outlook and information on making international payments at better exchanges rates than banks and other sources please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD – The USD is on the back foot following some bad GDP data last week. Despite an improving employment outlook the USD still stands to lose out in the future and I am sure we will see 1.70 soon. The chance of any US Interest rate hike is now miles off in the future, well behind that of the UK and the pound hence the improvements on this pairing. The USD will find favour however whether from Ukraine uncertainty or an improving economy so don’t hold out too long…

GBPEUR - The Euro appears weak against sterling but is actually very strong. If you look at the Euro against the US dollar and Australian dollar you can see it is at historically very strong levels. Much will be outlined by Thursday’s ECB decision, will they look to weaken the Euro? One interesting fact to note is that the ECB view EURUSD at 1.40 as unfavourably strong so if the trend of Euro strength, USD weakness continues the ECB may speculate over intervention into the market. Watch this space!

GBPAUD - The RBA have achieved their primary goal of weakening the Aussie, indeed this has been very successful. They are no longer targeting a weaker Aussie and improvements in the Chinese economy warrant a firmer Australian currency.

The pound looks set to be the main beneficiary of improved economic sentiments. All in all if you are planning to buy currency soon with sterling, taking stock of the current market is very sensible. We can forward buy currency and offer a range of options to limit your exposure to the market. A quick phone call or email to us really is a wise move as we are specialists with many years experience in the planning and execution of your international payments.

Hope to hear from you soon!

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

+44 (0) 1494 787 478

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,

Jonathan

 

 

GBP/EUR back over 1.21. Attractive buying Euro rates (Ben Amrany)

Key UK inflation figures were released this morning and has given the pound a tidy boost after weakening against many of the majors overnight. UK BRC retail sales monitor came in much lower than expected with a reading of -1.7%  against the consensus of -1.0% This did hurt the pound in early morning trading with GBP/EUR falling to 1.2067. Inflation figures measuring 1.6% assisted a rebound. Now although CPI is below the Government’s 2% target many analysts were predicting a steeper fall which would have raised questions whether the UK economy could cope with an interest rate hike next year.

The retail figures go to show that competition on the high street is fierce and is assisting this drop in Inflation. Now, should inflation remain low and stay below wage rises then this will give the BoE some relief that an interest rate hike next year could be coped with by the economy. This is what has given the pound a boost. If wages rise at a lower rate than  the inflation figure then the public would have less to spend and could cause a hole within the economy and the chances of a rate hike would be less likely hence harming the pound.

Looking forward tomorrow at 9.30 the key employment numbers for the UK will be very heavily scrutinized as the unemployment number is being directly linked to when an interest rate hike may occur due to the Mark Carney’s (Governor of the Bank of England) previous comments that interest rates may rise when unemployment falls below 7%.  The number is expected to fall from 7.2% to 7.1% Although this does not sound like a big movement the mere fact that we may get closer to 7% could give the pound a boost tomorrow morning against a host of the majors.  

The pound in general has been very volatile over the course of this year with significant losses against the southern hemisphere currencies in the last month but with gains against many of the majors like the USD & EUR. Depending on the currency you are buying or selling we may recommend different strategies to help you maximise your exchange. To find out my thoughts on the best solution for your currency exchange you may email me directly at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you feel that you would like assistance with an up and coming currency transfer you have to make we will strive to help you beat the rate of exchange your bank will offer you. Our savings can be up to 4% and I will also offer a very personal service to help you judge when you should buy the currency you require. if I know what your requirement is I can recommend the best options available to you.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sterling slides after BoE interest rate decision. Still best rates for buying the USD & Euro. (Ben Amrany)

The pound has weakened today after we learnt that the Bank of England kept their base rate of interest on hold at 0.5% for the month of April. It also left its Asset purchasing programme on hold too. We were not expecting any rate hike which would have strengthened the pound and GBP/EUR is now at 1.2076 GBP/USD 1.6780 GBP/AUD 1.7810.

Now until the bank of England look at hiking interest rates we will not see any real significant rises for the pound. We are expecting them to raise rates in 2015 and before other central banks providing economic activity continues to grow. The central bank does have an obligation not to raise the interest rates to quickly as this could hamper the UK economies growth. With low inflation and an unemployment rate that’s above 7% it seems not a great deal will happen this year.

In other news Greece have returned to debt markets for the first time since 2010. This is giving the single currency a boost and has risen on average by 0.35% today against the pound and US Dollar. It seems the European bond market has advanced after the Federal Reserve minutes (US) damped speculation that policy makers are moving toward raising interest rates anytime soon. One main reason why the USD is weakening at an alarming rate against the pound.

I feel going forward that GBP/EUR will rebound as the risk of inflation continuing to fall will have to be dealt with at some stage by the European Central Bank and i fully expect the rate to head back above 1.21 soon. For GBP/USD with the news from the latest minutes stating a rate hike is unlikely in teh next few months the pound will probably try to test 1.70 but i do think there will be a big resistance level and will then fall once getting close. Rates at the moment are around a 4 year high. If you are buying the Dollar why take the risk on this.

If you do require to buy or sell any of the major currencies then we are here to help you achieve a better rate of exchange than your bank. Savings can be up to 4% and we will give you our expert knowledge to help you time your transfer. if you feel you would like to know more about our service then please do email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk with your contact details and requirement and we can then discuss the options available to you.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

How will the pound perform in April?

Well what a difference a year makes. A year ago sterling was trading at a low of 1.16 and economists were lining up to explain a possible triple dip recession. Most of the UK was also enjoying a nice thick blanket of snow too!  Since then the pound has made a solid recovery and we are predicted one of the hottest summers in years, although just like forecasting currency movements, forecasting weather can be unreliable.

The advantage of forecasting currency however is market knowledge and understanding of what is actually driving exchange rates. 80% of currency transactions and therefore 80% of the reasoning behind currency movements is speculative. That is investors buying and selling foreign exchange to make a profit. Once you understand some of the key things they are looking for, you can begin to understand and forecast what may happen in the future.

This week there are a range of data releases which could affect sterling and also the currency pairs it trades against. One important thing to point out at this stage is interest rates. Interest rates affect currency in a similar way to the way a higher or lower interest rate affects a bank account. So as a central bank (the Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve) seek to raise or lower their base interest rate investors (remember most currency movements are speculative) move money around according to where they feel it will offer the best return. To learn what will affect your transaction this month email me jmw@currencies.co.uk. This may be of interest for anyone buying or selling an overseas property, anyone who needs to move a large volume of currency and wants to get the best deal.

The UK is looking at raising interest rates well ahead of other leading economies which is an underlying reason why sterling is stronger against a range of currencies. Having been set at 0.5% for close to 5 years now there is an expectation interest rates will rise in 2015. As we are slowly coming out of this abnormal period of low interest rates (and it will be slow and gradual) we will start to see sterling exchange rates rise.

Getting the best exchange rate involves looking at the timescales that you have and assessing the market in that period. This website has directly assisted 1000′s of clients and is also read by many more who I am sure appreciate our expert opinion and knowledge. If you are considering a currency exchange buying or selling the pound understanding what is likely to happen on the market is the best way to maximise your return. We offer a personal proactive service to maximise your exchange rate through careful monitoring and analysis of the market and your unique position.

As we buy direct into the currency market we would never have real trouble undercutting other sources of currency such as and including currency brokers and banks. Making a comparison on a large volume of currency could potentially save you hundreds if not thousands of pounds. If you would like to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or please call 01494 787 478

Will the pound weaken again?

Sterling has found favour today due to the impressive Retail Sales figures showing the UK is on the up. Sterling seems to have shaken off the more recent wobbles and is now looking like a safe bet to make further gains in the future. If you need to make a transaction involving the pound, I would strongly recommend speaking to us to find out the very best rates of exchange and allow us to explain the current forecast. Please feel free to drop me a line on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The outlook on the pound is positive and the recent euro gains against the pound look set to be on the back burner for the time being. If you need to sell euros to buy the pound then I would focus on making the transaction sooner rather than later as the longer term prediction would appear to favour GBP. The main driver in this situation will be the likelihood of any interest rate hike, tomorrow’s UK GDP data whilst old news, could act as a very interesting trigger for further GBP strength.

We are currency specialists, experts in forecasting and managing client risk to the foreign exchange market. If you need to make a transaction and want the very best rates and service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am very confident of being able to undercut any other firms and save you money.

Important Information on the pound if you have a currency exchange soon! Best rates in 2014 to sell EUR for GBP… (Jonathan Watson)

As predicted here back in February on this website the pound has suffered due to the bad weather. It has been ticking down lower against pretty much everything notably a much stronger Euro. This is partly due to all the economic data releases showing declines in the rates of growth as people struggled to get to work and businesses were closed. So we know why rates have ticked down, the question is what will happen next?

“Next week is a whole host of very important UK data which will very likely to move sterling exchange rates”

If you need to buy or sell sterling in the coming days and weeks you should take note of the UK Budget, UK Unemployment data and the Bank of England minutes next week. There is a very strong chance sterling could rise or fall on this data and making any clear prediction is incredibly difficult. If I was to stick my chin out I would probably say the pound would rise, I would rather be selling the pound than buying it. And that is why if you need to sell a foreign currency to buy the pound I would be making preparations for these key events.

Currency Transfer soon? We are currency specialists who offer much better exchange rates than the banks and other sources. If you are currently speaking to another company or the bank about a large volume currency exchange you should speak to me too to check your exchange rate. We source exchange rates direct from the market and this allows us to undercut other companies, I am confident I can show you a saving. Even a small difference in the price on a large volume of currency makes a major difference in the amount of currency you receive.

We offer a personal proactive service to manage your exposure to the currency markets. If you are considering something soon and would like a quick overview on the rates, process, current market and forecast please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 during UK business hours.

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