Tag Archives: sterling forecast
Sterling has continued to hold its position in the market this week, a trend which has been familiar over recent months. It has been widely discussed how UK economic data has improved sufficiently to bring confidence back in the UK recovery, which in turn has allowed the Pound the opportunity to make significant gains against most of the major currencies through the first half of 2014.
Despite the fact the Pound has fallen away from its recent two year high against the EUR, rates are still sitting above 1.25 on the exchange, providing some of the best buying opportunities of this year. Whilst the EUR has found support around the current levels it is struggling to make any sustained inroads and every time it seems as if a EUR fight back is on, market confidence disappears and the Pound quickly realigns itself.
It’s been a quiet week of economic data releases for both the UK & Eurozone but tomorrow could be key with the latest Eurozone inflation data and unemployment figures, both of which are usually key market movers.
GBP/USD have dropped again this week, as the USD continues its fight back against the Pound. Although this move has been tempered by recent false dawns, it does seem as if the positive momentum being built by the Greenback will continue. GBP/USD rates have moved back below 1.66 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cable back below 1.60 by the end of 2014.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
It’s been a mixed week for Sterling, following a run of inconsistent economic data releases. The Pound lost position against the EUR early in the week as UK inflation data came out worse than expected. However, just as it looked as though the EUR may start to build some positive momentum the Pound fought back, following the release of the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. These showed that two of the central banks members had voted in favour of an interest rate hike, news which immediately helped to boost market sentiment in the Pound, moving GBP/EUR rates back through 1.25 on the exchange.
Considering the up and down nature of this particular trading week it shouldn’t have been a surprise when the markets were once again thrown by worse than expected UK Retail Sales figures, which were released yesterday. The effects of this has now culminated in GBP/EUR floating just below the 1.25 level during this morning’s trading , with little movement expected today due to the relative lack of UK & Eurozone activity.
The USD continues to show an improvement against the Pound and following the release of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, the USD moved back under 1.66 on the exchange. This recent trend of USD strength has helped to alleviate some pressure on the green back, which has found itself handicapped by a stagnant economy over recent months.
Are we now finally seeing the recovery many analysts expected the USD to make at the start of 2014 year? I believe we are and the FED’s recent minutes have reaffirmed this belief, indicating that policy makers on a whole are happy with improvements in the job market but more importantly that they may raise interest rates sooner than expected. This news is likely to help the USD continue to strengthen against the Pound, with further gains likely in the short to medium-term. Personally I feel we are now likely to see GBP/USD put pressure back on 1.65, so if you need to purchase USD’s it may be prudent to move sooner rather than later.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on email@example.com
So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.
I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.
Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!
For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.
Tomorrow is a vital day for sterling exchange rates.
We expect a further decline in the Unemployment rate , sterling may find a lift on the back of continued improvement in the number of people in work. Also released at this time is the Claimant count which measures the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance. Changes in the rates of Earning and Wage growth is bound to attract attention too since concerns remains about the extent to which improvements in the economy are being reflected in better wages for workers. There is fair scope for sterling strength and weakness therefore as the different elements of the ‘Unemployment’ data are released.
To really maximise this event you might want to put a ‘Limit’ or Stop Loss order into the market, this guarantees your rate once the price is hit. With such quick turns on the exchange rate this is the best way to maximise your transaction. Have you made provisions for volatility today? Are you concerned that your bank or broker might not quite be getting you the ‘best deal?’. Email me Jonathan on email@example.com and let me see if I can help out.
Key Data for Wednesday – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report 10.30 am. Once the labour data has hit home there is a only a small window within which to assess the situation before the Bank of England report of key economic topics and we have a speech by Mark Carney. Sterling has soared this summer on expectations the Bank will raise the interest rate sooner than expected but I feel too much has been placed on these comments. Sterling strength might be good if you are buying a new home in France or paying Invoices from Germany but it has a detrimental effect on UK business as they lose their competitive advantage. Lately many UK business have grabbed headlines bemoaning the strong pound and the millions wiped off in profits. I will be watching for any comments on the detrimental effects of a strong pound, the recent worse data for the UK – lower GDP plus a declining rate of growth in the Industrial and Manufacturing sectors all points to slightly worse prospects for the UK economy up ahead and therefore a slightly weaker pound.
Thursday will see Euro data take stage – Important if you are tracking GBPEUR. At 08.00 am German GDP is released which will be very interesting since German Industrial Output posted a shock fall last month. The famous German ZEW survey today showed investor sentiment at a 20 month low for Eurozone’s biggest economy. With Inflation and Growth concerns rife the data at 10.00 am – Eurozone GDP and Eurozone Inflation all become very significant in determining just where rates will head.
Last year GBPEUR dropped to 1.14 and GBPUSD 1.48. On both currency pairing and pretty much all other sterling rates we are around 10% higher than last year. There are never any guarantees on the market but tomorrow’s data looks like it could easily affect current levels, what do you need to do?
If you need to make an exchange understanding what moves the market is key to getting the best deal. We offer a personal, proactive service to help you get the most from the market as well as offer an award winning exchange rate when you do trade. To compare notes or run through all of your options please feel free to contact me Jonathan Watson directly using firstname.lastname@example.org.
Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?
Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!
If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!
Jonathan Watson, email@example.com
Looking ahead is always fraught with difficulties but sometimes it is easier when you know a little more than the average. Just now sterling is at 1.2613 on GBPEUR and 1.7160 on GBPUSD. Other exchange rates are also at multi year highs giving some well deserved relief for anyone transferring money abroad in recent years! I was helping some clients buying property in Europe at 1.10 a few years ago and I remember businesses buying the USD cheering at being able to get 1.50!
Tomorrow we have a very important release for the UK with the latest labour market statistics including the all important Unemployment rate. With Inflation having unexpectedly risen changes in Average earnings will attract slightly more attention, the prospects for GBP strength on the whole seem high.
Thursday is the all important CPI (Consumer Price Index) Inflation data for the Eurozone which will outline just how justified recent ECB (European Central Bank) actions have been in attempting to quell falling inflation or ‘disinflation’. Sterling may therefore make some further gains against a battered Euro.
Priced In? – Markets have probably been pricing in the prospect of a) good UK data and b) bad Eurozone data so anything that comes out worse than expected for the UK and better than expected for the Eurozone could trigger sharp corrections. Movements of up to one cent should not be ruled out depending on just what happens. I would personally be shooting for better rates to buy a foreign currency towards the end of the week (from tomorrow) in anticipation of some positive UK Unemployment data cementing and even lifting current levels.
Should you have further to hold on you can wait until next Friday when we get the first estimate of UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for the UK for Q2. I would personally not be surprised to see the rates tick higher on this release although arguably the good news is already in the market. As with the two releases above for me the risk is to the downside, markets expect positive numbers for the UK. Anything to the contrary could trigger sterling losses.
For more information on how to approach your transaction plus an award winning exchange rate when you do, please speak to me Jonathan Watson on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478.
Sterling has hit the big time this year as it shakes off the worst of the last few years and sets sights on the future. The UK’s economic position has improved massively of late and is arguably now one of the worlds leading economies again. Especially when compared to other leading economies and currencies like for example the US and Euro.
There are risks up ahead of course, notably the Scottish Referendum and any further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. On balance we would have to expect sterling to remain well supported and should it manage to avoid the more obvious risks ahead of next year, we could see further strength in the new year as it becomes more apparent the UK’s recovery is underway and the prospect of raising interest rates looms.
Should you have any currency transfers please don’t hesitate to contact us for a forecast on just where the rates could be once your transaction is settled. Getting the best rates through the multiple sources we trade through, we are very well placed to help you maximise any transfers.
For more information please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com