Pound Sterling Forecast

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Following on from Jonathan’s post and to show just how undecided even the most ‘in the know’ people are, I personally feel we will see QE at 12:00 and some Sterling weakness….. Who will come out on top with this one, myself or Jonathan?????

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… djw@currencies.co.uk

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Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
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also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

The Pound has once again this week been fairly range-bound against the Euro as neither currency has managed to put it’s right foot forward and take command in this strange market… Against the Dollar however we have had an extremely volatile week so far and i’m sure the Non-Farm Payroll data (unemployment data) due out tomorrow afternoon will not be a quiet one either to wrap up the week.

Again uncertainty had been the key in early week trading with the Dollar slowly gaining ground and looking liee it may continue to with minor force then out of nowhere we see yet another surprise pop up yesterdaywith the Central Banks agreement to pump some liquidity into the financial system in a bid to get things moving again. This bought some confidence back into the markets, stocks and shares soared and we also saw a large Dollar sell off leading the Dollars becoming cheaper to buy.

Following the usual pattern of late, the ‘riskier’ currencies also found some huge force as investors looked to get involved with them, increasing demand and meaning that currencies like the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar bit back with a vengance.

Tomorrow non farm payroll data will set the scene for afternoon trading, with the liquidity boost and such rapid currency movements following it, this does suggest that if you do have transfers to carry out you must make sure you protect yourself from unexpected and rapid adverse market movements. A tool we offer here is a stop-loss which does exactly that. Feel free to contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain exactly how it works and assist with any currency transfers you are looking to carry out.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Well what can I say…. I go away for a long weekend and the Pound has slipped away again against the Euro….. The single currency appears to not know how to lay down and give up, and investors out there somewhere are still more than happy to back it.

Tomorrow morning is the next key data due for the U.K and indeed the Pound – further doom and gloom from the U.K could knock the Pound even further against the Euro.

The Pound is indeed still gaining ground against the perceived ‘riskier currencies’ such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as investors risk appetite declines accross the world, as mentioned before when risk appetite is generally low then the more exotic currencies can tend to weaken…. great news for those of you looking to emigrate further afield!

Personally I feel the Pound will creep up a little further against the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the near term, until some major issues accross Europe at least have reasonably solid solutions in place to resolve them.

Tomorrow will be key for those with Euro requirements be it buying or selling as we could easily see a shift of quite some force surrounding the Bank of England’s release. It would not surprise me to see the Pound struggle again against the Euro and a spanner to be thrown into the works, it is easy when you have a currency transaction to carry out to stare upwards and just hope that rates follw suit, the problem is the currency markets can quite easily nip in your back pocket and steal your wallet whilst you are looking at the sky, and there is no guarantee that they will give it back and rates will return.

If you have a currency requirement imminently or in the coming months then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be confident that you receive a much better rate of exchange than using your bank or another broker by using me – So far this year through this site alone 231 people have got in touch and used me personally, joining our growing list of over 40,000 clients here at Foreign Currency Direct.

This morning saw the release of U.K unemployment and it once again highlighted what I said yesterday…..

All the hype and news surrounding the Eurozone is indeed helping people forget that the U.K economy is certainly not in great shape and we have plenty of problems to deal with here ourselves, let alone having to throw money into assistance for other failing European economies .

Sterling rates have dropped against most major currencies in trading this morning, and just to round off the morning we have Mervyn King releasing his quarterly inflation report – Over the past few years the pattern seems to have been the Pound gaining value over a short period of time, all looking rosy and then before you know it something coming out to knock us straight back down again, and Mervyn King usually has his say in that talking down the economy at every opportunity!

Could lead to an interesting end to the week for sure, if you have a transfer to carry out and wish to know what is happening and why, and want to secure a much better rate of exchange than your bank or current broker, contact me today djw@currencies.co.uk

Much of the headline news these days is focused on the European debt crisis, and of course it should be as it is a huge problem that probably will not go away for years to come. It is easy however sometimes to forget that indeed the U.K economy isn’t exactly smelling of roses currently, and there are plenty of economic data releases coming out on a daily basis that are effecting the strength of the Pound in an adverse way.

As well as political stories, the buy/sell demand for currency is traditionally driven by economic releases, ranging from unemployment to manufacturing figures. There are roughly 30 releases for each economy a month with a forecast for the release being priced into the market in advance of this, the economic calender on the right hand side of this page should keep you informed of what is due out next and what expectations are. When the release is made, and if it differs from expectations then you can see the markets shift and readjust accordingly, should there be quite a difference on a larger, more important release then you could see a swift movement either creating a spike in the market for what you are looking to do, or potentially meaning your purchase could cost you a lot more.

The more uncertainty we see in the Eurozone in the coming months, the more the Euro will struggle to make a real fight back from the recent losses seen, so it may be sensible to look at selling Euros now or booking out a forward contract should your house sale overseas be in the process of going through at present. Along with the Euro struggling, the uncertainty should lead to the Dollar gaining more strength as investors still class it as a ‘safer haven’ and run to the Dollar in times of need. They had been using the Swiss Franc primarily but due to the recent devaluing  of the Swiss Franc it isn’t the safe haven of choice an y more. With whispers of further devaluing in the pipeline the CHF may well continue to weaken in the near term until the SNB (Swiss National Bank) confirm they have no further intention to weaken the currency.

For AUD, NZD and ZAR buyers, the uncertainty is also great as it means investors pull out of the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR meaning there is less demand and they are cheaper to buy, Ausralia may well be ever so slightly feeling the pinch lately with a recent rate cut so those waiting for a spike agains the AUD may be in luck.

My personal opinion is in the lead up to Christmas there will no doubt be some great buying and selling opportunites and those quick enough to act and that do not get to greedy could do well in the current market. It is key to have a proactive broker on your side, I can help you with any upcoming transfers both with getting commercial levels of exchange for personal transfers and keeping you fully up to date with market movements, I can also offer forward contracts, stop loss and limit order contracts.

The company I work for is FSA regulated and authorised as a payments institute, we have been trading for over 11 years and have over 40,000 clients so you can have the peace of mind you are dealing with a well respected company in the industry.

Contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk leaving a contact number and a brief explanation of your requirements and I shall personally contact you to discuss exactly how we work and how I can help you in this extremely volatile market.

The table below shows the percentage movement of exchange rates on Friday along with the extra foreign currency you could have bought if buying with £200,000 catching your rate at the right moment.

Ongoing European crisis, global uncertainty and what it means for your currency transfer

EU Finance ministers met over the weekend and will be in discussion most of the week to finally try and come up with a resolution to a problem that appears to be spiraling out of control across Europe. Greece will need a second bailout, European banks need to be recapitalized to cope with Greek debt exposure and numerous economies are desperately trying to bring in cuts to take their expenditure below GDP.

Many economies within Europe have large exposure to Greek debt and if Greece is allowed to fail, many others may slowly follow suit. In my opinion the meetings this weekend and that we have seen after the last few months are only going to bring in temporary solutions and that inevitably at some point, finance ministers will have to throw in the towel and stop throwing money into the Greek black hole.

No headline deal has been announced however so far on Saturday ministers announced that €110 Billion of new capital must be raised by European banks to cover their loans to indebted nations, as the EFSF (European Financial Stability Fund) quite honestly has too much to deal with trying to prop up Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal – To be kept up to date with the very latest releases and market movements get in touch by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page and let us be the eyes and ears on the market for you.

If you have a requirement to buy or sell Euros this week then you should ensure you are protected against adverse market movements by means of a stop loss order. An announcement can be made at any time and we will be sure to be receiving constant updates over the first few days of the week leading to a volatile time for the Euro.

Personally I feel there may be a few spikes for Sterling against the Euro this week, however like in the past once the meeting has ended and a new apparent fantastic approach to resolving the problems has been announced the Euro may strengthen considerably, putting us back down to 1.13 by the end of the week. If you get the chance to buy when the mid-market level is above that, then in my opinion I would be highly tempted. Contact us today by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page should you be worried about what the week may bring and one of our experienced traders will be happy to explain the various options available to you.

U.S credit rating downgrade again?

An interesting report I read over the weekend suggests that the U.S are in for another credit rating downgrade before the end of the year, according to the Bank of America. Ratings agencies had previously said that if congress did not have credible solutions and policies in place regarding debt problems in the states then this is something they would have to look at, and a downgrade could happen as soon as November.

Although you may think this would weaken the Dollar, the downgrade we saw for the States last time led to Dollar strength, probably as it heightened global uncertainty and in risk-averse times the Dollar is still one of the frontrunners as a safe haven for investors to place their funds into. One other note of caution is the saying on the market that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold, so how much longer will we indeed hold on to our top rating and what effect will that have on the Pound…. Surely a negative one?

Sterling forecast – the week ahead

Without a doubt the most important release on the financial markets this week will be the result of the current European summit, this will affect all currencies worldwide as it will change attitude to risk and potentially paint the picture as to where the world economy will be in the lead up to Christmas. Personally I feel the result will lead to immediate Euro strength and the antipodean currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR) will also gain against the Pound as for the time being as investors will still be willing to get invest in the riskier currencies, increasing demand and making them stronger.

Cable (GBP-USD) is expected to plummet by top foreign exchange information site FX Street, however I feel that this week we could temporarily break the 1.60 barrier for the final time this year and we see key Gross Domestic Product figures out for the States on Wednesday at 13:30pm.

There are numerous interest rate decisions throughout the week with Canada, New Zealand and Japan all expected to keep rates on hold, any changes to expectations may lead to high volatility, be aware too that the markets are on alert for Japan to move to devalue the Yen and the interest decision overnight on Tuesday may be the ideal time for them to do so.

In short, an extremely volatile week ahead beckons for all major currencies and those in a position to act fast will benefit from opportunities that may arise, keep in close contact with your account manager and if you know you have an imminent requirement then email me djw@currencies.co.uk and we will be more than happy to assist you.

If you have any questions or queries regarding anything in this report then please do feel free to email me djw@currencies.co.ukor fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page..