Pound Sterling Forecast

The Pound has once again made gains against the USD over the start of this week as all seems relatively quiet on the European front (not for long though i’m sure) and global attitude towards risk appears to be increasing off the back of this.

In turn, this means that investors tend to pull funds out of their perceived ‘safer currencies’ such as the USD (gold is also priced in Dollars) decreasing the demand for this currency and also making it cheaper to buy.

We have also seen the ‘riskier currencies’ such as the South African Rand, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar make gains from this as demand for them increases.

My view is that more European troubles are sure to come to front page news again it is just a case of when…. As and when this does happen we should see things turn around again… Those looking to sell Dollars or Sell AED Dirhams (pegged to the Dollar) will have a selling opportunity and those buying AUD, NZD or ZAR will have a great buying opportunity (compared to recent times anyway) however the European Central bank would all be great poker players as they are all very good at keeping their cards close to their chest so we may have a little wait on our hands first.

If you have a currency transfer to make be it buying or selling then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk for a direct comparison against your currenct bank or broker and I will do everything I can to beat it by enough to make it worth you using me instead as there is always room for improvement in my experience.

A currency we don’t touch on too often – JPY which has indeed been extremely volatile of late, making excellent gainst against the Euro, U.S Dollar and Pound yesterdayas we heard the Bank of Japan intended in extend its asset purchasing programme, these gains appear to be short lived however as already this morning we are almost back to square one again. Much like the Swiss Franc I feel this currency is going to be jittery until we see any movement from central banks regarding potential devaluation.

It is key that you have an efficient broker on your side if you have an upcomnig transfer to carry out, why not try our new currency audit service to check just how well you did on your last currency transaction, just fill in the form on the right hand side of this page or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk

Good morning all, sorry about the lack of posting in the last few days, I spent Tuesday at the brit awards and yesterday feeling like I had been hit by a train!

Yesterday whilst I was on anual leave the Bank of England minutes were realeased and indeed led to major Sterling weakness pretty much against all majors and once again stinging those that have 1.20 stuck in their mind as the only rate they are willing to buy Euros at. This is the 8th time Sterling has risen above 1.20 for a minor amount of time and then bombed so next time please bear this in mind, like I have said on the site many times before the people one step ahead out there aim for slightly less than everyone else (1.19) as to get through 1.20 and stay above there the movement has to be so strong that it breaks through the millions of orders at 1.20.

Of course this has been fantastic news for those selling foreign currency, personally I cannot see the Pound staying low for a major amount of time, indeed I feel it will be fairly range bound, however now at a lower level than we have seen.

If you have a transfer to carry out be it buying or selling the Pound then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to make sure you get a better rate than your bank or current broker, we can potentially save you thousands depending on the amount you are doing – I worked for a company that has been around for 11 years now, has over 40,000 clients and has won awards from the Sunday Times and Daily Telegraph for exchange rates and a National Business award for customer service. If you find the site useful then you have nothing to lose, drop me a line and I will be more than happy to help you too.

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Following on from Jonathan’s post and to show just how undecided even the most ‘in the know’ people are, I personally feel we will see QE at 12:00 and some Sterling weakness….. Who will come out on top with this one, myself or Jonathan?????

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… djw@currencies.co.uk

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Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Halfway to recession?

Yesterday morning saw the release of U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 released and unfortunately they did not make great reading for the U.K. Gross Domestic Product figuresshow how much an economy grew or contracted in that particular period and the prediction was for the U.K economy to have shrunk by 0.1%

The figure actually came out at -0.2% which doesn’t sound a lot but it does however mean we are indeed closer to a recession than many had first thought.

An economy is officially in a recession when it has two consecutive quarters of negative growth and with the U.K ending the year with one there is every chance now we could start the year with our second and the Pound may drop accordingly.

We will not find out the results for Q1 2012 until April – but if indications are there that this may be negative then Sterling exchange rates may find the next few months very tough – So far in the U.K we have managed to dodge any serious winter conditions, such as the weather we saw this time last year however should it come back and the economy take a hit accordingly then this may be enough to tip the balance.

Of course there are various problems globally that will no doubt hold back many other major currencies, The Euro Zone is also expected to drop back into recession territory as a whole at points this year so there will no doubt be various buying and selling opportunities along the way. Call us today on 0044 1494 725353 should you have an upcoming requirement and let us be that extra pair of eyes and ears on the market for you.

BOE Minutes – How will further QE affect the Pound?

The Bank of England minutes were also released yesterday and the results of which are probably why the Pound did not take a nosedive yesterday. All nine members of the BOE voted in favour of interest rates staying on hold and also, which is key the (QE) stimulus plan to be left on hold for the time being. It looks like the market had slightly priced in further QE in the near term and the fact that not one member was in favour right now should delay further stimulus for another month or two.

When more money is pumped into the economy it generally does weaken the Pound, and regular readers will be aware the mere mention of this does lead to weakness for the Pound, so be aware this will be a hot topic in the coming months.

Federal Reserve minutes and Dollar Exchange rates

Last night the Federal Reserve released their minutes from the first interest rate decision of the year in the U.S. They also tend to comment on economic conditions and how they plan to tackle their economic problems going forward.

In a Statement the Fed state that they expect interest rates to remain extremely low until late 2014 which did weaken the Dollar slightly shortly after the release. Interest rate hikes generally make a currency more attractive to investors and the fact they are planning to keep this low for quite some time may put investors off of putting their money into the USD.

I personally still expect the Dollar to perform well this year due to the problems globally, if you have Dollars to purchase this could be a great opportunity for you as it wouldn’t surprise me to see the GBP-USD rates below 1.50 in the next six weeks.

However, in a press conference later on last night some slightly positive news for Dollar buyers was the fact that Ben Bernanke had stated that the Fed would still be prepared to inject financial stimulus in the near term, which has opened up the door for QE3 in the U.S. This has been expected for some time though so I do not expect this to weigh too heavily on the Dollar.

KEY DATA WATCH: U.S  GDP Data Tomorrow at 13:30pm – This data could lead to a volatile end to the week as it is a key indicator as to how the U.S economy is performing. Expectations are for a reasonable jump in the right direction which could round off the week on a high for the Dollar.

RBNZ Interest Rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates on hold last night, giving the NZD a little more strength overnight. NZD rates are (like the AUD) closing in on the lowest we have seen in years and there is no guarantee they will be shooting back up again soon, with interest rates staying high and economic data fairly solid you may have quite a wait on your hands if you are awaiting a large movement back.

Data that may affect the Pound Today

Today is extremely quiet on the data front for the Pound and most majors, however do be aware that at any point we could hear news on the Greek debt talks. If so called ‘positive’ news comes from the talks then going on previous movements we could see some Euro strength pushing the Pound back below 1.19 and back out of arms reach of 1.20.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes….

There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

The Pound has once again this week been fairly range-bound against the Euro as neither currency has managed to put it’s right foot forward and take command in this strange market… Against the Dollar however we have had an extremely volatile week so far and i’m sure the Non-Farm Payroll data (unemployment data) due out tomorrow afternoon will not be a quiet one either to wrap up the week.

Again uncertainty had been the key in early week trading with the Dollar slowly gaining ground and looking liee it may continue to with minor force then out of nowhere we see yet another surprise pop up yesterdaywith the Central Banks agreement to pump some liquidity into the financial system in a bid to get things moving again. This bought some confidence back into the markets, stocks and shares soared and we also saw a large Dollar sell off leading the Dollars becoming cheaper to buy.

Following the usual pattern of late, the ‘riskier’ currencies also found some huge force as investors looked to get involved with them, increasing demand and meaning that currencies like the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and the New Zealand Dollar bit back with a vengance.

Tomorrow non farm payroll data will set the scene for afternoon trading, with the liquidity boost and such rapid currency movements following it, this does suggest that if you do have transfers to carry out you must make sure you protect yourself from unexpected and rapid adverse market movements. A tool we offer here is a stop-loss which does exactly that. Feel free to contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain exactly how it works and assist with any currency transfers you are looking to carry out.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Well what can I say…. I go away for a long weekend and the Pound has slipped away again against the Euro….. The single currency appears to not know how to lay down and give up, and investors out there somewhere are still more than happy to back it.

Tomorrow morning is the next key data due for the U.K and indeed the Pound – further doom and gloom from the U.K could knock the Pound even further against the Euro.

The Pound is indeed still gaining ground against the perceived ‘riskier currencies’ such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as investors risk appetite declines accross the world, as mentioned before when risk appetite is generally low then the more exotic currencies can tend to weaken…. great news for those of you looking to emigrate further afield!

Personally I feel the Pound will creep up a little further against the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the near term, until some major issues accross Europe at least have reasonably solid solutions in place to resolve them.

Tomorrow will be key for those with Euro requirements be it buying or selling as we could easily see a shift of quite some force surrounding the Bank of England’s release. It would not surprise me to see the Pound struggle again against the Euro and a spanner to be thrown into the works, it is easy when you have a currency transaction to carry out to stare upwards and just hope that rates follw suit, the problem is the currency markets can quite easily nip in your back pocket and steal your wallet whilst you are looking at the sky, and there is no guarantee that they will give it back and rates will return.

If you have a currency requirement imminently or in the coming months then do feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be confident that you receive a much better rate of exchange than using your bank or another broker by using me – So far this year through this site alone 231 people have got in touch and used me personally, joining our growing list of over 40,000 clients here at Foreign Currency Direct.