Tag Archives: strength

What to look out for on the pound in the coming months…

When considering making a currency exchange an understanding of what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market. How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

GBPEUR Forecast and Rate Predictions Q4 2014

With the UK economy and the pound performing extremely well for the majority of 2014, the last quarter has some high expectations to live up to. In the end it might be this high expectation which is ultimately sterling’s downfall although of course it depends on which pairing you are concerned with. Below is a brief overview of the key issues, if you have a transfer to consider making some careful plans is always sensible. We offer a specialist service designed to assist you in the planning and execution of your transfers at the very best rates of exchange.

GBPEUR – GBPEUR moved over 3% in September which would have meant transferring £200,000 at the high compared to the low would have saved or cost you €7,921. We usually beat the banks by anywhere from 1 to 4% which at the very least would be €2300.on this volume. These big differences underline the importance of a service like ours, one that gets you a better rate in the first instance and offer information on the better times to execute the deal.

Sterling has risen on the back of the No vote in the Scottish referendum but has dipped in October owing to economic data coming showing September was plagued by uncertainty and hence business confidence and spending was low. Much of the strength we have seen for the pound this year is based on interest rate hike expectations. Investors have bet big on the UK being the first leading economy to raise interest rates. It may be however that the UK does not raise interest rates as soon as expected and this would negatively impact sterling rates.

The other big reason GBPEUR has been up to a two year high is the Eurozone have cut their interest rate. Crucially today they announced Quantitative Easing measures which is likely to underpin Eurozone policy moving forward for the next couple of months. I personally feel it more likely it will be Eurozone policy which will have the biggest impact on GBPEUR and if the data continues to impress GBPEUR could easily comes back to the 1.25 level in October, particularly if sterling suffers on weak data.

Looking to November I would expect rates to trade above 1.20 but for more uncertainty over the UK raising rates to creep in and the Eurozone to finally benefit from all the measures taken to rectify their economy. Don’t forget the UK benefits from doing 40% of its trade with the Eurozone which means if the Eurozone economy struggles, the UK economy can be afflicted too. Looking to December I would foresee rates remaining in the mid 1.20’s perhaps with a mildly GBP positive tone as investors start to bet back on the pound.

2015 certainly has much in store on the rates with the UK election and the possibility of a referendum on Europe. Of course the prospect of rising interest rates and evidence of a sustained economy recovery will also impact sterling.

Do you need to move any funds still in 2014? Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what is around the corner but should you wish for a little more insight and information on the rates plus deals which I am confident will save you money over your bank or broker, why not drop me an email? I will do my best to give you some pointers on what might be the best course of action.

Thank you,

Jonathan Watson

jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling could be in for a very tough Winter…

Sterling has had a truly remarkable year making firm gains against pretty much all currencies and presenting some of the best rates to buy a foreign currency with in years. GBPUSD hit a 5 year high, GBPEUR has hit a two year high (and not far off a 6 year high!) and GBPNZD and GBPAUD are also both at multi year highs… Clearly sterling is faring well but this now begs the question will it continue?

October is looking like a tough month for the pound  with economic releases from September’s data likely to be poor owing to lower business and consumer confidence due to the Scottish referendum. I feel this is likely to feed into the rest of the year and with it interest rate hike expectations (currently expected in April) liable to be pushed back further. Economic growth in the UK is currently running at 0.8% and with house prices not rising as fast as previously I think the need to raise rates will dampen in Q4.

Tomorrow is some very important Eurozone news on Inflation which will be indicative of how much QE we can expect Thursday from the ECB. With so much volatility surrounding this release making some careful plans ready to trade on the news seems sensible.

I couldn’t possibly fit everything important in one post, would you read the whole article anyway? So if you need to consider a currency exchange and wish for further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a foreign exchange dealer and we focus on a personal proactive service to help you get the most from the market. Please contact me for more information regarding your situation.

Will sterling continue to rise

The pound remains at elevated levels and it would appear it shall continue to do so. Expectations of Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone next month are keeping the Euro weak and following the dollar’s recent surge investor appetite for favourite the safe haven looks set to remain cooled for the time being.

The pound was looking in serious danger on the back of a possible Yes vote in the referendum but these fears have now cooled with the No vote. There are however significant reasons for concern for GBP weakness down the line with the UK election and the possibility of the EU referendum to follow. These topics could make the Scottish referendum look like a Parish Councillors meeting by comparison…

All in all the news is generally very positive for the pound at present but further gains in the absence of something ‘new’ to impress investors look limited. If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling capitalising on these extremely impressive levels might be the best course of action. To be notified of any impressive spikes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Scotland decides on NO – What impact has this had on the Pound and what may we see for Sterling in the coming weeks? (Daniel Wright)

Scotland decides to stay in the U.K

Following an extremely volatile few weeks for the Pound we finally have the decision from the Scottish referendum and Scotland has decided to stay with the United kingdom giving the pound a little strength against most major currencies.

We saw a huge turnout as far as voting goes (84%) which just goes to show how much this has captivated Scotland and divided opinion north of the border. Sterling has had a roller coaster ride against all major currencies over the past few weeks as polls have swung back and forth both ways after we had months of the markets almost assuming we would see a No vote. More importantly what this means for the Pound is that it has bought both economic and political certainty to the U.K for the time being, both of which should give the Pound a little strength in the coming days.

Investors and speculators alike hate uncertainty and the mere fact that the referendum had seemingly been in the balance has been holding Sterling back recently even with fairly solid economic data still being released almost on a daily basis. Sterling exchange rates have moved around three and a half cents from high to low against the Euro, four cents against the Dollar and ten cents against the Australian Dollar in the past two weeks as the markets try to second guess just what would happen with the vote.

Finally on Friday morning the decision came and I am pleased to say the U.K will indeed remain as one and now hopefully politicians and the Bank of England can fully concentrate on pushing the economy forward as a whole, rather than having to unravel an exceedingly complicated tangle that may have cast a grey cloud over the Pound and kept it weak for months to come.

If you find this site of use and would like assistance with any pending currency transfers involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound then feel free to contact me by email with a brief description of what you are looking to exchange and a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

So what does this mean for me if I have currency to exchange?

Being an unprecedented situation, nobody really knows the exact impact this will have on Sterling but in my personal opinion I now feel that the Pound will kick on and gain a little strength over major currencies and heads can now turn towards if or indeed when interest rates may rise.

For those looking to sell foreign currency I would say now could be the time to secure your exchange rate. If you take the Euro as an example, it was only a few weeks ago that the European Central Bank not only cut interest rates but also indicated a few changes in Fiscal policy coming up.

Most notable of these is QE (Quantitative Easing). QE can generally weaken a currency once put into place and was one of the big reasons we saw both Sterling and the Dollar weaken a lot over the past few years. In my opinion once the dust has settled over the referendum the focus will come back on to Europe which still has huge problems to tackle and I feel the Euro could be in for a tough time of things.One must remember however we have crossed this bridge before and The Euro is a powerful beast. Only two years ago most analysts expected a rise through 1.30 when the Euro had even more problems than they do today and within a few months it was back below 1.20.

In essence the key thing you need to make sure you do is to keep in close contact with a currency broker no matter what your requirement in these particularly volatile times. Here at FCD we pride ourselves on not only the very best rates of exchange but also in being extremely proactive for our clients, making them aware of any spikes in their favour or drops against them.

We can’t let you know if we aren’t aware of what you are looking to do so make sure you email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally. Sterling is trading at over a two year high against the Euro, a two week high against the Dollar and the highest we have seen against the Australian Dollar since March this year. If you would like to speak with one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders about any currency pairing then feel free to call us on 01494 787 478 or email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to call you personally.

Are you placing too high an expectation on sterling exchange rates rising?

So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.

I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.

Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!

For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

 

Interest rates dictate the movements for the pound and Euro in the UK and Eurozone. (Ben Amrany)

On a day where there was an outside chance of the Bank of England hiking interest rates the pound was left very much disappointed with no movement by the Governor of the Bank of England which left the pound hovering around 1.26 against the Euro and 1.6820 versus the US Dollar.

For those buying or selling Euros the main spotlight for the day was firmly on the European Central Bank (ECB) who also  released their latest interest rate for the month of August. We were expecting more of a chance of policy change from the ECB after two months ago they announced unprecedented monetary easing which assisted the pound in gaining to the highs of 1.2699. The ECB stated they were not making any change to policy and may look at things next month should inflation not start to rise so it may be another month before a further push for the pound occurs.

Even if this does happen though the IMF (International Monetary Fund) recently stated that they felt the pound is a good 10% overvalued and if the Bank of England feel the same we could see a rate hike be put off until next year as it may strengthen sterling further if it happened to soon.

 

As we head into the last day of the week tomorrow the UK trade balance figures could weigh on the pound should our trade balance not fall as much as expected.  We still feel that GBP/EUR will be range bound from a low of 1.25 to 1.2650 and GBP/USD  from 1.6750 to 1.69 for the next week or two.

If you are looking at making an  exchange to buy any of the major currencies we can help you make a saving n your exchange by up to 4% over the high street banks. I offer a very personal service to give you the information needed to help you decide when to buy. If you feel that you would like to compare our rates then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

How Secure is Sterling’s Meteoric Rise in 2014?

Sterling has clearly risen sharply this year representing an excellent time to buy a foreign currency with the pound. There are however a number of factors to beware of which could easily see the pound drop in the coming months. If you need to make a foreign payment understanding the market and how to go about getting the best deals is central to enhancing your advantage.

Ultimately no one knows what will happen in the future but like weather forecasters, we can look ahead and based on what we know make certain calls as to what may or may not happen. Tomorrow is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision meeting where we could see some movement on GBP rates. No change is expected but the release by nature can be volatile as investors seek to second guess the market. Perhaps more interesting is the ECB decision and Press Conference afterwards at 13.30. Recent Eurozone data has not been particularly encouraging and any comments by Mario on this could cause some EUR movements affecting GBPEUR positioning

If you need to make a currency exchange please email me Jonathan jmw@currencies.co.uk for information to help you get the best deals.

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