Tag Archives: strength
Pound strength following King Speech (Steve Eakins)
Today, which is probably the busiest day this week has already provided a few surprises. It was this morning confirmed that France has re-entered a recession creating euro weakness, UK Unemployment is improving and then currently the current Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, in his last speech seems to be talking the value of the Pound up. In summary GBPEUR rates have now risen from the 2 week low at the beginning of the day towards a near 4 month high we last visited 4 weeks ago.
So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?
Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April. The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.
Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals. Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases. This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.
Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June. He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program. It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.
If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
Our service is designed to save people money on their currency exchanges. This is not just through offering better rates than the banks and other currency brokers, but by assisting with the actual timing of your exchange. Even if your transfer is just a one off we can help guide you through the process of moving money internationally at the very best rates.
Even if your transfer is not required for some time we can forward book rates for a small deposit. For more information on the services and to make a comparison or register an alert for certain trading levels, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
Thank you
Is now a good time to buy foreign currency with pounds?
GBPEUR Forecast – Will rates drop lower in April? Unlike the weather which remains as cold as a few weeks ago, the pound has shaken off some of the worst of this year. Concerns over Cyprus and the stability of euro zone banks, plus a slightly better performing pound indicate to me a fairly range bound few weeks of anywhere between 1.16 and 1.19. Significant gains for sterling look limited, as do significant gains for the euro. On balance I expect rates to be higher towards the end of the month as sterling slightly recovers and attention remains on the Euro zone economies.
What next for sterling? Will we triple dip? How can I protect myself? The next big event this month will be confirmation of whether or not the UK is in a triple dip recession. Numerous recent reports have hinted that the UK may have avoided the triple dip. I personally think this will be the case and we may see the pound find a bit of strength towards
the end of the month. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds it may be prudent to act sooner rather than later. The New Zealand dollar is at close to all-time highs against sterling as are many other currencies. For more information to help you decide on when may be best to enter the market you can speak to our trading floor direct on UK Freephone 01494 787 478 and check live interbank rates here.
Should you have anything to consider in the future our specialist service is designed to save you money. For a free, no obligation chat or quote to see jus how good we really are you can speak with me directly on jmw@Currencies.co.uk
How will an EU referendum affect GBP rates? (Jonathan)
Cameron’s announcement today is welcome in some respects but presents a whole new set of challenges for the pound. Whilst in principle it makes sense as the UK does need to be clearer about how it engages with Europe, in practice the political wranglings and speculation we are now to endure for months and years will not be good for the pound.
Why is sterling suffering?
- Political Uncertainty - Where does the UK stand on Europe?
- Economic Uncertainty - Is Cameron and Obsorn’s economic plan flawed? Will the UK ever return to growth? Are we in a triple dip recession? Is the UK about to lose its triple A credit rating?
- The UK is no longer a safe haven – Last year at the height of Eurozone worries, the UK and pound found favour as a safe haven. There were also major fears over the US fiscal cliff and fears of a hard landing for China. These three big global concerns have all played out fairly well. Consequently investors are liquidating GBP positions because they see better returns elsewhere.
Where do you stand? As human beings we generally like certainty and clarity, we like to know where we stand. The same is true of investors, they want to understand their money will be safe and provide a decent return. Lately investors considering investing in the UK have been put off by the factors above and turning this tide will take time.
Friday’s GDP data for the UK is looking more and more important as it will underline the recent moves and determine how justified the GBP sell off has been. Don’t be surprised to see a small increase in the value of the pound if the number turns out to be not as bad as expected.
The pound is continuing to suffer lately but there will be spikes to take advantage of. Even if your transfer is a one off, we can help provide all the information to make an informed decision on when to enter the market. For a quick discussion of what you should know about your exchange and how it all works, please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you
They say Bad News Comes in Three’s! Will it be so for the pound? These three T’s indicate quite possibly
There are three things that could really slip up the pound this year. Knowing what may happen and when allows you to make an informed decision about when to exchange your currency. No one can tell you exactly what will happen but we aim to ensure our readers and clients have a slight advantage when they do enter the market!
Triple Dip Recession – Unprecedented in modern times but these fears could easily become reality and cause a GBP sell off.
Triple A Credit Rating – The loss of the UK’s prestigious top tier credit rating could rapidly halt any sterling gains.
Trade and Budget Deficits – The UK has not enjoyed a trade surplus since 1981. Quite simply the UK has been living beyond its means for far too long.
Looking in a global context the UK ‘s problems may become more of an issue as Europe appears to have paved a way forward, the Chinese hard landing has not been so hard and the US’s immediate concerns are addressed. The worst case scenarios for each of these three issues has not played out. Confidence has returned for Europe as Greece did not leave and Spanish and Italian borrowing costs have been significantly reduced. Chinese data is still pointing to strong Manufacturing output and the solutions on the fiscal cliff have helped instill confidence.
The pound enjoyed a pretty good year last year. At various intervals we broke through many of our clients (realistic 
) target rates. GBPUSD at 1.60 +, GBPEUR at 1.20+ & 1.25+, GBPAUD at 1.60+, GBPNZD at 2, GBPCAD at 1.60+, GBPZAR at 14+ and of course many others. Whilst these rates have at times been taken for granted you do not need to go back more than year or so to find rates significantly lower.
Is this trend likely to continue in 2013? I would say on balance probably not. Services data for December showed the first contraction in the sector for two years. Services is one of the main sectors of the UK economy and if in decline we should be worried. We certainly cannot rely on Manufacturing to get us out of the mess, nor Construction. Services is the main feature of the UK economy so this needs to see positive news, not negative.
24th January we have the UK GDP figures for Q4 2012 and this is the next big event for me. Tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions could easily be a non event but are the main topic this week.
Should you be considering any transfers I would be more than happy to explain how to go about getting the best exchange rate. Please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
Thanks,
Sterling report and forecast – The week ahead (Daniel Wright)
Tonight we see the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision and expectations are for another interest ratecut to 3% – Will we see Australia surprise us the other way this time and hold off?
A cut in rates should lead to weakness for the AUD making it cheaper to buy and no cut may lead to the AUD becoming more expensive for those looking to buy Australian Dollars with the Pound.
Industrial and Manufacturing produuction figures are out for the U.K tomorrow morning which may kick start the month for Sterling, a positive start may push us through the 1.25 barrier against the Euro and back through the 1.60 mark against the USD however I feel the U.S election will help to strengthen the USD in the coming days as long as there are no big surprises thrown up in the next few days.
The Bank of England interest rate decision is not expected to throw any big surprises up on Thursday which is shortly followed by the European Central Bank interest rate decision… I feel the press conference following this may be the most important part of the day assuming the Bank of England don’t get up to any tricks with QE.
To round the week off we have trade balance figures for the U.K and should this come out as positive then it may lead to the good start to the month that those looking to sell Sterling and buy a foreign currency are looking for as it should start to back up the positive growth figures we saw at the end of last month.
If you have a currency requirement and want to get the very best of expert knowledge on your side along with awards winning exchange rates when you do decide to take the plunge then feel free to contact me directly and I will personally get back in touch with you to discuss your needs, I can be emailed on djw@currencies.co.uk and I welcome you all to get in touch with me if you wish to.
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U.K GDP Figures lead to Sterling strength as predicted at the start of the week :) Pound up against EUR USD CAD AUD NZD CHF ZAR and more! (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has had a good surge in strength this morning as U.K GDP figures came out better than expected. We have seen exchange rates for Sterling rise against the majority of majors which is great news for those looking to buy foreign currency. Regular readers would have seen this prediction on Monday as shown here so hopefully this once again proves we do know what we are talking about and don’t waffle on pointlessly.
U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data came out at 1% growth for the economy during the third quarter of 2012, meaning that the U.K is now technically out of a recession and hopefully this should place the Pound back in investors good books at least for the short term.
Much of the boost will be thanks to the Olympics but I also think that we are doing things the right way and that the recovery albeit at a lot slower pace will continue to happen as long as we can avoid dropping back into negative territory in the last quarter of the year.
If you have a currency requirement and want to get the very best of expert knowledge on your side along with awards winning exchange rates when you do decide to take the plunge then feel free to contact me directly and I will personally get back in touch with you to discuss your needs, I can be emailed on djw@currencies.co.uk and I welcome you all to get in touch with me if you wish to.
If you have been following my site for some time now and you fine the information useful please click the link below and vote for us in the financial blog awards.
http://theinvoice.hitachicapital.co.uk/competition/
We pride ourselves on giving clients non biased and up to date information to assist with their currency transactions and help them try and time transactions right, if you have found us useful then please return the favour and vote for us to win
Will GBPUSD keep climbing? AUD and NZD Sell-Off Resumes
The last week saw some sharp but not wholly unexpected moves on exchange rates. If you are considering a currency transfer in the future read on to find out what may happen this week and how I expect the next few weeks to pan out. I can’t control the market but if you are making a trade soon or in the future, I can provide a thorough overview of the market and an unbeatable rate to help you maximise the exchange.
Will GBPUSD keep climbing?
The expectation of more QE in the US has been around for most of the year and regularly highlighted to our regular readers. The USD sell-off which has led to the four month high for buying Dollars will not in my opinion last much longer and go too much higher. The confidence present in the market will not just disappear overnight but with continued Eurozone uncertainty and slowdowns occurring in most major economies, the prospect of further USD strength as a result of global uncertainty seems high. Even with all of the ‘good news’ for the Euro last week, concerns remain. It will be interesting to see to what extent last weeks ‘boost’ of confidence which heavily affected EURUSD, GBPUSD and GBPEUR will remain in this week’s trading. If you are buying Dollars I would look to move soon so you aren’t left in the cold if things do change. The looming US election and ‘fiscal cliff’ (a series of spending cuts and tax hikes due for 2013) are bound to create much volatility on the Dollar and as we saw last week this will affect all currencies, not just the Dollar.
This morning we had the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Meeting Minutes at 01.30 am, whereby the RBA stated further loosening of policy was probable and perhaps more importantly the Australian Resources Minister suggested the commodities boom was ending. This has weakened the Aussie and the Kiwi a cent or two so far. On the Sterling side today we have UK Inflation data at 09.30 am.
Tomorrow is the UK Bank of England Minutes at 09.30 am, then Thursday we have UK Retail Sales at 09.30 am. And on Friday, Public Sector Net Borrowing figures are released
also at 09.30 am. Any of these could affect short term movements on the pound and despite some improvements last week on the data front, more QE looks on the cards for the UK and hence we expect the pound to suffer.
If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best deal on your transfer or even just check you are doing the right thing, then please feel free to email me directly jmw@currencies.co.uk for further information
Pound Sterling Forecast 04.09.12 – 07.09.12 – Still an extremely busy week ahead!
Despite the UK data so far being mixed but overall disappointing for September, ongoing global events are presenting some excellent buying opportunities on many of the more popular currencies we trade. GBPUSD is only a whisker away from a 3 and a half month high, GBPNZD is at a 3 month high, GBPAUD is at a 12 week high and GBPZAR is at a 3 year high!
GBP NEWS – The start of each month sees a snapshot of economic activity with the Purchasing Managers Index Surveys. Monday’s Manufacturing data was an improvement on July but still showed for August according to the survey, the sector shrunk. Yesterday we had Construction post an alarming 3 year low, although an administration error meant tomorrow’s Services data was published ahead of schedule this afternoon. The increase in activity in the Services sector provided some light relief and helped the pound make some small gains in afternoon trading.
So what next for the pound? Well these mixed signals continue to point to the Zig Zag economy Mervyn King referred to earlier this year. The general slowdown we are seeing globally is impacting the UK and anyone banking on sterling making strong gains against any currency should really start preparing for more losses. The economy is literally going backwards and with dark debt clouds whipping up more and more of a storm in Europe, it is difficult at present to see the light at the end of the tunnel. With more QE due at some point in the future it looks like the pound will be set for more losses in the future.
With no Services tomorrow, in the UK, the important data is the Halifax House Price release which could affect short term movements on the pound. With no QE expected Thursday we probably won’t see much affect the pound itself, but with so much focus on the ECB (European Central Bank) those interested in any currency transfers may wish to book something out today or early tomorrow to avoid disappointment.
Is the ECB’s word as good as its bond?
EUR NEWS – After weakening to 1.2860 against sterling over 6 weeks ago, the Euro has found support against a weak pound on the back of improved confidence in the single currency. This has stemmed from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB stating the ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the Euro. There has been lots of speculation in the last few weeks as to what this will take and the feeling is the ECB will announce some new form of bond buying. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs rose to dangerous levels earlier this year which spooked investors.
DATAWATCH – Tomorrow we have 10 year German Bund Auctions, 10 year Italian Auctions and 5 year Spanish Auctions. To finance day to day spending, governments around the world borrow money on a promise to pay back the money at a certain rate over a period of time. This impacts currency (particularly the Euro at present) because it shows investor appetite for investing in the region. If the bond auctions go badly the rate could fall, if it goes well, the Euro may find favour.
With all eyes on Mario’s actions and announcements Thursday, tomorrow could be a very good day to make preparations for Thursday. I would not be surprised to see movement of at least a cent in either direction on GBPEUR, and personally feel it would be in favour of the Euro.
Mario and the ECB’s decisions could affect movement on a range of currencies including the Kiwi, Aussie and Canadian Dollar. Friday sees a range of Industrial and Manufacturing Production data too.
The posts on this site are a snapshot of the kind of information we provide on a daily basis to our clients who need to make a currency transfer. If you are considering any transfers now or in the future it is well worth getting in touch as we can not only make you aware of all the events surrounding your trade, but also assist with an unbeatable commercial exchange rate.
I am happy to take any questions on any currency transactions personally at jmw@currencies.co.uk or on phone via 01494 787 478. Please note my services are for corporate and private clients looking to move money internationally (from 1000 GBP up to multi million pound transactions) bank to bank and not for travel money or speculative investment purposes.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Why September is a Key month for the Euro!
September promises to be a very busy month with a number of important decisions due on the Euro. For the time being the boat may have sailed on the better Euro rates of the last few weeks, but this could easily change.
Following the Jackson Hole Summit the case for further QE in the US remains, but it is unlikely we will see any too soon. The global economy continues to be pulled from pillar to post with no real clear direction or trend being established.
And the Aussie, Kiwi, Rand and Canadian Dollar continue to suffer presenting some excellent buying opportunities.
Next week a few things to lookout for are:
Purchasing Managers Index Surveys. These surveys reflect business sentiment and provide an early indication on how an economy is performing. These are likely to affect the short term movements on a wide range of currencies. On Monday we have PMI for China which could affect the commodity based currencies AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR. We also have PMI from across the Eurozone, all in all plenty to start the week off!
On Tuesday there is UK PMI for Construction, plus Swiss GDP data. In the afternoon we have a range of US PMI data, which will provide further indication as to US QE decisions.
Early Wednesday we have Australian GDP data, then the Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision (plus more UK PMI, for the Services sector).
And Thursday the Australian Interest Rate decision, the Bank of England Interest Rate decision as well as the European Central Bank decision.
And if you haven’t seen your movement by then on Friday there is various Manufacturing and Industrial Production data for the UK, plus US Unemployment data in the US. There is also a preliminary UK GDP estimate Friday too.
GBPEUR Focus September could be MAKE or BREAK for the Euro
Last week saw further losses on GBPEUR as the edge of the excellent levels passed. PMI Surveys this week could well shape the short term movements although the key events to beware of are as follows:
This Thursday – ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Will Mario and co finally shed some light on their plans to ‘save’ the Euro? August saw a wave of calm sweep over the Euro, is it misplaced?
September 12th – Dutch Elections and German Court Ruling on legality of use of taxpayer funds for bailout funds.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund), ECB and EU Council will also be visiting Greece and Cyprus to discuss ways forward.
The outcome of these meetings and events could well shape the trend on the Euro and this will affect attitudes to risk on other currencies. To be kept up to speed on the latest developments on your rate please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
GBPEUR is currently at a one month low although I am sure this week we will see it break out of the ranges it seemed trapped in last week.
Don’t get caught out! Rates can move quickly for a variety of reasons. Our specialist service is designed to make you aware of everything important surrounding your trades so you do not miss out.
To be kept up to date with everything affecting your rate please contact me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
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