Tag Archives: strength

Great Expectations… GBP Weakness…

The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…

This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.

If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.

Thank you,

Jonathan

 

 

Important Information on the pound if you have a currency exchange soon! Best rates in 2014 to sell EUR for GBP… (Jonathan Watson)

As predicted here back in February on this website the pound has suffered due to the bad weather. It has been ticking down lower against pretty much everything notably a much stronger Euro. This is partly due to all the economic data releases showing declines in the rates of growth as people struggled to get to work and businesses were closed. So we know why rates have ticked down, the question is what will happen next?

“Next week is a whole host of very important UK data which will very likely to move sterling exchange rates”

If you need to buy or sell sterling in the coming days and weeks you should take note of the UK Budget, UK Unemployment data and the Bank of England minutes next week. There is a very strong chance sterling could rise or fall on this data and making any clear prediction is incredibly difficult. If I was to stick my chin out I would probably say the pound would rise, I would rather be selling the pound than buying it. And that is why if you need to sell a foreign currency to buy the pound I would be making preparations for these key events.

Currency Transfer soon? We are currency specialists who offer much better exchange rates than the banks and other sources. If you are currently speaking to another company or the bank about a large volume currency exchange you should speak to me too to check your exchange rate. We source exchange rates direct from the market and this allows us to undercut other companies, I am confident I can show you a saving. Even a small difference in the price on a large volume of currency makes a major difference in the amount of currency you receive.

We offer a personal proactive service to manage your exposure to the currency markets. If you are considering something soon and would like a quick overview on the rates, process, current market and forecast please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 during UK business hours.

Pound Sterling Forecast

Sterling remains supported but the more recent data for February is as expected looking worse than expected. Small declines in Construction and Services output are perhaps potentially indicative more of the recent bad weather than any likely declines in the pace of growth in the UK economy although few would doubt that the strong growth spurts witnessed earlier this year seem to have receded for the time being.

Today’s Interest rate decision does not appear to hold too much in store, I am expecting more in the ECB (European Central Bank) statement. Essentially some slightly better news for the Eurozone that Inflation is rising last week, will have helped to keep the lid on further action for the ECB. The pound to euro exchange rate may fall slightly following the statement.

All in all the pound is performing very well and there is an expectation the pound will remain supported. The chance of the pound making significant further gains in the short term do however look limited so if you are keen to look at buying a foreign currency with the pound I suggest moving sooner.

If you are planning a transaction and wish to achieve a better exchange rate and find out about a better service please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

Pound Sterling exchange rates at brilliant levels once again!

Daniel Wright

Daniel Wright

Sterling exchange rates rose against all major currencies yesterday following Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaking shortly after the quarterly inflation report for the U.K.

Carney, who is now getting a reputation for talking the Pound up compared to Sir Mervyn King who seemed to have an ability of making the Pound drop like a stone increased growth forecasts and spoke about the possibility of interest rate hikes and what would need to be met in order for him to start seriously considering hiking rates. In fairness to King he was in a much more dire economic situation than Carney, however for anyone looking to buy foreign currency with Sterling Mr Carney should be added to your Christmas card list at the moment!

As mentioned in my previous post I feel there is still a little risk of the flooding starting to weigh on the U.K economy which is one to be a little wary of if you are looking to buy foreign currency in the near future, however news yesterday can only be seen as good for the time being.

If you have a requirement either now or in the future to buy or sell foreign currency then is would be sensible to get in touch with me directly so that I can assist you both with the timing of the transaction and get you a great rate of exchange when you come to carry it out. I cannot ever directly advise you however with years and years of experience in the currency markets having me on your side should help to save you money.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirements and a contact telephone number and I will be more than happy to give you a call.

Mark Carney helps sterling to rise, will it last?

Mark Carney and the Bank of England have raised UK growth forecasts helping sterling to gain against a number of currencies.  At the same time they have underlined interest rates will be on hold for a long period of time which limits just how much higher we can expect sterling to rise in the coming weeks and months.

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

If you have a sterling transfer to consider in the coming weeks and months making some plans now at these levels may be a sensible move. 

In other news the new Federal Reserve Chairmen Janet Yellen underlined Quantitative Easing in the US is likely to continue until there are significant improvements in the jobs market. And overnight Chinese economic data was much stronger than expected presenting what I believe is a very good opportunity for anyone selling Australian dollars or South African Rand to buy GBP.

I am available to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what will happen on exchange rates but having won awards for our service and rates, we are extremely well placed to offer expertise in managing your currency exposure.

For a breakdown of strategies and options on your particular exchange please call me Jonathan in UK office hours on 01494 787 478 or if you prefer email a quick outline of your position to jmw@currencies.co.uk

Would you really bet against the Bank of England?

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

‘Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy’ is a famous quote by the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Markets often don’t go the way everyone expects and initial reactions can exaggerate the true value of a situation. I think this is very true with the current bets on UK Interest rates being raised and anyone expecting exchange rates to just keep climbing may end up very disappointed.

Tomorrow we have the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney speaking at the Davos summit which could well be a market mover. To be clear the policy of forward guidance has indicated the bank will consider an interest rate hike if the Unemployment rate falls below 7%. This does not mean that they will actually do so and therefore the current bets that the UK will be raising rates soon as a result of the improvements in the Labour market may be wide of the mark.

Yes of course interest rates must be raised but it may not be for some time yet. It could easily be another year or two and in that time the pound could be very susceptible to shocks and dip lower. The longer term forecast would be sterling strength as the economy is clearly on the right trajectory. However markets do not follow set paths and with rates so good at the moment it would be foolish to gamble that they will keep climbing and be available in the coming weeks and months.

I feel some kind of correction is due for the pound and that could happen as soon as tomorrow once Mark Carney makes clear why interest rates have to be on hold despite improvements in the jobs market.

If you need to buy or sell sterling the current market is at a very important level. With multi year highs against a range of currencies we are at a key crossroads on many different currency pairings. For a quick overview of your situation please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan.

Important sterling news is early today

Jonathan Watson

Jonathan Watson

This morning we have Retail Sales for the UK released at 09.30 am. Retail accounts for a large portion of our GDP and the figures will be closely watched and may well move sterling. Therefore if you have a transaction to consider an awareness of the possible outcome and how to prepare yourself is wise!

The pound is performing very strongly against a range of currencies and this morning’s data is expected to show an improvement of 0.1% in the sector. I have read a few forecasts that predict a lower number which would weaken sterling. I however would expect a higher number as despite some supermarkets reporting lower numbers many other retailers like Next and John Lewis reported very high sales. We also had retailers discounting in the weeks leading up to Christmas and many sales started on Christmas Day.

Another interesting point to consider however is the growth of online sales and the impact of this on the High street. The widely reported increases are of course welcome but are the sales going overseas or is it benefiting the British economy? I have actually emailed the ONS (Office National Statistics) and will let you know!

We can book a price in minutes following your initial contact. We are able to undercut other sources of currency and give you insight into the issues and events affecting your exchange. For more information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.

Sterling breaks through 1.21 against the Euro. The best rates to buy the Euro this year. (Ben Amrany)

Sterling exchange rates have had an excellent start to 2014. We have seen excellent gains against most of the majors and the pound has now broken through 1.21 against the Euro spiking by 0.70% today. The high was 1.2132. Tomorrow we have interest rate decisions in both the UK and the Euro zone and while we are not expecting any movement in the base rate the tones from both central banks will be key as to how the currency pair performs for the rest of the month.

My personal thoughts are that over the next 2-3 months we will continue to see a slow gradual increase for the pound against the Euro as economic data from the UK improves and we pull further away from the long recession that we were in. The stance between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank seems to be  completely different. While the UK may take the stance of the US and start to slow down their monetary easing the Euro zones economy is still a little behind the UK and the US and will more than likely try to keep liquidity with in the markets. Plus while the Euro zone continues to see their inflation fall the likelihood of any interest rate rises are slim at present.

So the indication is that if you are buying the Euro capitalise on any spikes in the market and maybe ride this wave the right way to see how far GBP/EUR will go. If you are looking at selling the Euro to buy sterling my recommendation would be to look at selling your Euros sooner rather than later. if you have been watching the rate continue to depreciate be cautious as you do not want a situation like what has happened with the Australian Dollar where the declines just continued and continued and get caught out chasing your losses.

If you do need to buy or sell the pound against the Euro or any of the majors then why not get in contact and see if we can make you a saving on the rate of exchange over your bank or current provider.  I offer my clients a personal service to give you the information needed to help you decide when to convert your funds. Please feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

Sterling remains at excellent levels! Economic picture remains mixed however (Jonathan Watson)

The National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) today confirmed that the UK economy grew at 0.8% in the last three months to November. Sterling has been performing excellently against a range of currencies but just how far can this go? With much uncertainty still surrounding the global economic outlook the pound may yet still suffer.

Economic growth is rising but just how sustainable is it? House prices are rising at their fastest in many years but there is already talk of a bubble and Mark Carney has indicated he will be ready to step into the market to calm everything down if needs be. Much of sterling strength in recent months has been down to expectations the UK will be raising interest rates in the next year or two when in fact the bank’s own forecasts actually go out to 2016.

With many troubles remaining in the Eurozone  which accounts for 40% of the UK’s overseas trade it would not be surprising to see UK growth suffer in the future. It is wrong to be reliant on a booming housing market and increased consumer spending as drivers of sustainable growth because ultimately both can lead to their own problems – housing bubbles and increased debt.

Whether buying or selling a foreign currency understanding the pitfalls and ways to handle the transfer are key to getting the best exchange rate. As well as offering excellent rates above banks and other sources we also offer guidance on the markets and processes for international payments. No one can predict the market but we can highlight current trends and themes and make sure if rates or sentiments change you are kept up to speed.

On a large currency purchase a difference of one or two cents makes a huge difference. For example if you are selling 500,000 Australian dollars today rather than two weeks ago you are getting close to £16,000 less. Likewise if you are buying 500,000 AUD today rather two weeks ago it is £16,000 cheaper! We undercut the banks by as much as 4 or 5 cents depending on how much you exchange so it really is worth checking in with us and exploring all of your options.

The worst thing you can do when making a currency exchange is to just do it through your bank. For more information at no cost or obligation from a currency specialist please feel free to speak with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I will be very happy to speak to you and answer any questions. Even if your exchange is just a one off we can help you, I look forward to hearing from you.

Wrap that transfer up like a neat gift

GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20… 

Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.

With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!

If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.

Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.