Tag Archives: strength

Sterling loses momentum as manufacturing data disappoints (Joseph Wright)

Despite the Pound rallying over the past week or so we’ve seen it’s bullish run come to an end today, as the currency has softened by at least half a percent versus both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Economic news out of the UK recently has mostly been coming out considerably better than analysts expectations, and that’s left Sterling sellers with the opportunity to make their conversions at considerably better rates of exchange than would have been available just a couple of weeks ago. Those hoping to capitalise on these improvements may be wise to consider making that move sooner as opposed to later, because as we’ve seen today I’m expecting financial markets to react quickly and negatively to weak economic data out of the UK at the moment due to market sentiments towards Brexit.

Today’s economic update, released by the Office of National Statistics showed that Manufacturing Production contracted by a considerable 0.9% in July, which was disappointing for those hoping the Pound would continue to climb as previous to today’s news release the last set of Manufacturing data we saw (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) was particularly positive.

Moving forward, I expect to see the Pound come under further pressure as despite the recent Services PMI figure posting the biggest gain record (on Monday), we still haven’t seen the Pound test the psychological level of 1.20, and I think after the Pounds recent gains there is likely to be profit taking from market speculators which may drive Sterling’s value down once again.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make and would like to discuss it, feel free to get in contact with me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I’ll be happy to discuss timings with you as well as being able to offer award winning exchange rates. If you would like a quote just email me with an outline of your plans and I’ll be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 



Has the pound bottomed out yet?

Yesterday’s news of the interest rate cut was not wholly unexpected but the measures including 50bn of QE and a new ‘Term Funding Scheme’ were not priced in helping contribute to GBP weakness. So is this the end or the beginning of measures by the Bank of England and where will sterling head next?

Even in yesterday’s meeting the BoE were signalling further cuts and this indicates to me sterling could have further to fall. The pound is essentially a barometer of the health of the UK and with all the business and consumer survey’s so far pointing towards a decline it seems like the data will in the short term only get worse. IHS Markit which surveys the recruitment and employment Industry has reported today a two month decline in the number of people finding a permanent job. If Unemployment is shown to be going up over the next few months then sterling will undoubtedly come under further pressure. September 15th is the next Bank of England meeting and we could easily see another interest rate cut then. If you are considering any kind of transaction buying or selling the pound and wish to be kept informed and secure a better rate of exchange why not get in touch with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Any information is completely free of charge and at no obligation, please note I can only offer information for clients moving over£10,000 on a bank to bank transfer eg business and overseas property buyers and sellers.

Although it is difficult to be overly optimistic at present we do appear to have avoided the worst case scenarios so far. Sterling is still trading against the Euro in the high teens and remains above 1.30 on GBPUSD. Many of the big banks predicted Brexit would lead to GBPUSD hitting 1.20 and parity or 1 for 1 on GBPEUR. We are by no means out of the woods but the UK does now have a new PM and a base to work from in order to secure Brexit. As we learn of further Brexit news the pound could rise but with Article 50 unlikely to be invoked until 2017 there is lots of time for sterling to languish and markets to digest the situation.

Generally speaking if you are buying a foreign currency with the pound moving sooner rather than later and trading on any spikes is probably the safest bet to avoid further disappointment. If you have a transfer you are debating please contact me to learn more. This site is primarily to provide market news but we can help save you money on your currency exchanges too. I have many clients with currency accounts with some of the UK’s top currency brokerages and they always come back to me because I can undercut other company exchange rates. Any information from me is completely free of charge and at no obligation, I am sure I can make it worth a quick email. Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

How far can the pound fall?

The pound has actually made some very small gains today but the outlook remains grim in my opinion. Despite the markets bouncing off the bottom today I do not think there is going to be a huge amount to be cheerful about and the rally of this morning quickly halted. The UK has no Prime Minister, the EU say there will be no special deal for the UK and business confidence and investment is down. There is a harsh choice for the next PM will it be abandoning free movement of people or retaining access to the single markets. According to the EU we cannot have both! If you are considering a currency exchange (£10,000 over only bank to bank exchanges please) please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to keep up with the latest news on how the pound is performing.

How much lower will GBPUSD drop?

The problem on this pair is the US Election is not far away which is bound to lead to uncertainty on the exchange rate. The prospect of a Trump Presidency has in my mind not been properly factored into the dollar. The Brexit vote also makes a US Interest rate hike less likely which I feel is not being reflected on the pair. I expect this rate to trade between 1.30 – 1.40 until August before moving back to 1.40-1.50 August to September. From there the picture is less clear but a move back above 1.50 could not be ruled out. If you have any USD transfers to consider the USD is almost at a 30 year high against the pound. To understand the latest movements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR hit 1.25?

For Euro buyers this is the question I am being asked most. Well I think Greek concerns and worries may resurface in the next few months and a top of 1.25 is possible, the negative impact of Brexit is also hurting the Euro. But I think sterling will be the main loser and would call lows in the 1.10-1.15 range up to September. From there much will depend on how Brexit negotiations but I think the pound will remain weak until we have certainty. If you have any Euro transfers on amounts above £10,000 (eg property sale of business transfer) please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on securing the best GBPEUR and EURGBP exchange rates.

Brexit may well not prove to be too bad in the long run but it is clear to me the impact on sterling exchange rates still has much further to run, we still know very little about what to expect next. Any signs of an interest rate cut or further Quantitative Easing could easily send the pound lower and I would be most worried about this prospect towards the end of this year or early next.

Sterling is at multi year lows against GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPCHF and GBPZAR..  Make sure you don’t miss out..

  This aware winning blog has enabled tens of thousands of people globally to save money on their currency exchanges through helpful, friendly knowledgeable information from experienced currency brokers. As one of the Chief contributors here I would be delighted to hear from any of you wish for information at this important historic time for the pounds. An email will only take you a minute and the savings on offer could be thousands, what have you to lose. If you have a currency exchange to consider and would like to learn the latest exchange rate forecast please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.


What can we expect this week for the pound? (Jonathan Watson)

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Great British Pound (GBP)

Important news this week for sterling is  Unemployment data on Wednesday which is expected to remain stable at 5.1%, this has been one of the key strengths of the UK economy, if the predicted rise in average earnings from 2.1 – 2.3% rings true sterling could be in for a good day on Wednesday! Thursday is Retail Sales figures which are always a volatile release and can impact markets, if you don’t see the sterling move you are looking for on Wednesday then this could be the one to watch.

In summary sterling should remain in a better position this week, the pound has slipped in recent weeks but found some form last week with better than expected Inflation data and better news concerning the government. David Cameron’s dreadful previous week was recovered from the worst points and a particular damning report by the Treasury on the Brexit has reconfirmed the governments position potentially further aiding the Remain camp. I expect this report and better UK data to help give the pound a lift by the end of the week but a lift that will be rather fragile when we (and financial markets) take into consideration the Referendum only 9 weeks away!


A fairly tame start to the week with some Construction and Current Account figures gives way to a busy end of the week as Friday sees Manufacturing and Services data for the Eurozone. Thursday is the key date for the Euro however as we have the European Central Bank decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The last meeting saw almost 4 cents movement in the afternoon and whilst I don’t expect quite the volatility this is usually a volatile time as markets digest Mario Draghi’s assessment of the Eurozone. Following the ECB bazooka of low interest rates and QE last month Inflation has risen which should give Mario Draghi cause for cheer and possibly help the Euro rise.

In Summary the Euro looks set to remain strong but might lose some ground to a stronger pound on Wednesday. Thursday is the key date so if you need to buy Euros moving before Thursday might be sensible, GBPEUR buyers have received almost 3 cents improvements from the lows of April which given the uncertainty ahead should not in my opinion be dismissed too easily.

United States Dollar (USD)

This week is a range of mid tier releases in the US focusing on Housing Starts (Tuesday), Home Sales data (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). The dollar had weakened on the news the Fed were resigned to just the two rate hikes this year but has now found traction again. Two hikes is better than none and with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone still focused on ‘easing’ measures the dollar is still top of the class.

In summary there remains a good chance that the dollar will strengthen further against the pound longer term but this is sterling’s week. If you need to buy dollars with the pound taking advantage of any spike this week is I believe the best way forward.

Do you have a currency transaction to consider involving the pound? If so this week could see a return to favour which given the Referendum ahead is I believe something well worth taking advantage of! For more information on events to be aware of surrounding your currency transaction please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk



How can I protect myself from a falling exchange rate?

There are many options to buy currency which can be very useful with sterling exchange rates as volatile as they currently are. This year has seen the pound fall as fears over the outcome of the EU Referendum have led to investors selling off their sterling holdings. Exchange rates are likely to slip further in the coming weeks as investors fears increase over just what exactly the Brexit entails. This means that if you are buying a foreign currency in the future there is a strong likelihood your exchange rate will get worse and making some plans in advance is sensible.

Buy Now

The best way to predict the future is to create it! As tempting as it is to hang on when considering a foreign currency transaction this can prove very costly if rates unexpectedly move against you and the EU Referendum is just the kind of event to trigger large unexpected sterling losses. Even if you don’t need your funds at this moment making plans to be able to buy your currency now or on any spikes is the sensible thing to do. It is often those least prepared who get the worst deals, unfortunately sitting on your hands hoping exchange rates will magically rise can cause real upset.

In or Out?

The actual outcome is of course important but in the coming weeks and months as we approach the date the market is pricing in the worst case scenario of Brexit. According to some reports GBPEUR could be trading as low as 1.15, GBPUSD 1.30,GBPAUD 1.60 and GPBNZD 1.80. This is the worst end but looking back at how good exchange rates were last year would anyone have predicted the levels currently on offer?

Exchange rates move every second and understanding the forecast can help you to get a better deal. Making plans in advance is always a good idea so for some top tips on how to fix your exchange rate for up to one year and access to the very best commercial exchange rates please get in touch with me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates continue the charge against Euro and Swiss Franc – Dollar gains back a little ground (Daniel Wright)

The positive trend for Sterling continued against most major currencies today, hitting 1.26 against the Euro and making good gains against the Swiss Franc. There were minor losses against the Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar but in general the Pound just seems like it has come ever so slightly back into fashion.

This follows positive inflation figures and a number of pieces of good news for those campaigning to stay in the European Union. My personal opinion regarding the referendum now (and I may be wrong) is that I feel we vote to stay and that Sterling may rise.

There are far too many analysts and organisations out there looking for the headlines that are more than happy to pitch doom and gloom to the general public and although there is the potential for it to happen, there is a much higher chance of Sterling going back up than there is of it dropping by 20% as some have said.

Generally with elections and referendums such as this the group in the undecided camp tend to stick with what they know and now that the Government have sent out leaflets confirming that even if we leave we actually will almost end up on the same terms with many of the matters that annoy people there is no real good solid reason for us to go.

Tomorrow we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 12:00pm. Positive news from these will have the potential to push us up even further and considering Sterling has dropped by so much this year, even the slightest piece of good news give us room to strengthen considerably.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Latest media coverage from our writers! What next for the pound?

bbcnew3Last night I was very pleased to be asked to appear on BBC News to discuss the ‘Brexit’ question and Sterling weakness. I was asked how I thought upcoming events would influence the pound moving forward and as regular readers will know in my opinion the future is because of this very issue not looking too rosy for the pound. At the beginning of this year I wrote here how I believed the pound would like lose value (you can read the post here) and I can offer further predictions on Sterling exchange rates here. The remaining question of course is will this continue? Well my answer is that yes I believe it will but following such a torrid day yesterday this may not manifest immediately. In fact the rest of this week could be quieter but that isn’t any reason to hold back from making plans! Thursday is an important day with the latest GDP figures for the UK, sterling is unlikely to come under renewed pressure again this week but could easily trade in the recent lower ranges against most currencies.

When should I buy Euros?

If you need to buy Euros with pounds and want a little more for your money make sure you are ready to buy by the 10th March! Many of my clients are concerned with GBPEUR movements and the one hope for Euro buyers with pounds is next month’s ECB decision on Quantitative Easing on the 10th March.  If (and it is an if) the ECB embark on further QE this should weaken the Euro making it more attractive to buy Euros. Thursday this week is also important because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us a clearer picture on what to expect next month for the European Central Bank (ECB).  Essentially worse Inflation data makes it more likely we will see more QE in March. Understanding upcoming economic events are key to making some plans on when to make your currency purchase so if you are unsure or just wish to have a chat about your requirements please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

If you are selling Euros dare I ask what you are waiting for? Since November you have made 10% on your currency deal. This is normally the kind of mov
ement you may see between the high and low in a year. Current Euro to GBP rates are the best in 16 months and whilst of course they may improve further if I was selling Euros I would be very worried about next month’s ECB decision and just how this could impact my purchase. If you have Euros to sell and wish to learn some information on the best time to sell in this market, please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will USD to GBP rates improve further?

This week is the release of US GDP figures which will help provide some further direction on cable prices. GBP weakness has helped drag the pair down to fresh lows touching close to a 7 year high but I cannot see it getting too much better in the short term. Thursday and Friday’s GDP data will be key to determining the next moves but I do feel much of the bad news for sterling is priced in and because of a high chance of the Federal Reserve reviewing their previous bold comments that they will raise rates again, the dollar will weaken.

I have worked a specialist foreign exchange broker for 6 years personally assisting both businesses and private clients with their foreign exchange requirements. I am a big fan of talking abut the market and am very pleased to be quoted in the press and other articles online. If you are considering a currency transaction involving the pound this is a very interesting market at present and I would be very happy to discuss with you all your options and the latest forecast for you. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your situation and preferably a phone number, I will respond as quickly as I can!

Busy day for the pound! Will sterling rise or fall?

Sterling is likely to really struggle in the current environment with lots of pressure over expectations the Bank of England will cut growth and inflation forecasts for the UK. There has been immense uncertainty surrounding the UK’s Brexit expected to be finalised in the coming months. The Bank of England is likely to discuss today the uncertainty relating to this event and this will in my opinion undoubtedly lead to GBP weakness. The EU Referendum is just another worry to lump on the back of the pound which has had one of its worst ever starts to a year.

Falling Inflation has removed any need for an interest rate hike and expectations for a hike which seemed so likely only a few months ago are now being price well into 2017. The main trigger for the pound to rise should be an interest rate rise or signs of an improving economy. With little sign of the right conditions arising for an interest rate rise I would expect the pound will really struggle in the coming weeks and months. From an investors point of view I think sterling is really likely to struggle to maintain composure in this market and today’s data is key to highlighting the extent to which uncertainty is rife.

For more information on the latest tends and themes to impact your exchange rate please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. In my role as a foreign exchange specialist I am very confident I can offer you some useful facts and information to help you get a better deal.

Euro strength at present – What is causing the current level of strength?

We have an exceedingly busy trading floor here today so I thought I would direct you all to my most recent market report on the Euro which can be found by clicking here.

This report should explain just what is causing Euro strength and how long we may expect for it to continue.

For news on the Australian Dollar and how the Chinese stock plunge is having an impact click here


Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like any further information.

GBP to rise this morning?

The pound is in for a very busy day with a number of key releases mainly from the labour market with UK Unemployment data due. This release actually rose last month and could be a cause for concern. If we see a further increase sterling might really come under some pressure owing to the weaker economy. All in all if you are looking at making a transfer buying or selling pound sterling an awareness of all of your options well in advance is usually a good idea. If you need to make a transfer how do you know you are getting the best rates? Speak to me to find out by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

The next thing to beware of on exchange rates is very much likely to be this Chinese news with the Chinese central bank cutting their pegged level to other currencies. This has presented much uncertainty into the forex markets with a major sell off on the Aussie and Kiwi presenting a very good time to buy these currencies with the pound. The volatility of the last 48 hours just shows nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates!

For more information on your options and how to navigate the uncertainty please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk