Tag Archives: tom holian

Sterling Euro rates hit lowest point since November (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to tumble during the week with GBPEUR rates now at their lowest point to buy Euros since early November 2016.

The Pound has also fallen against all major currencies with big losses seen vs the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar.

The Pound has struggled as it appears, at least for the moment, that we could be facing a hard Brexit which means we may not necessarily remain in the single market which has sent shockwaves through the currency markets and therefore Sterling has fallen.

Personal debt per household has continued to rise and this means that with inflation also set to rise it may be difficult for the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the future as this could cause further problems and this has resulted in weakness for the Pound.

Indeed, Bank of England member Andy Haldane went on to say ‘interest rates are still very low, and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future.’

On the continent the Eurozone’s leading economy Germany has announced strong economic data in the form of GDP which came out at 1.9% for 2016 which was better than expected.

As the Eurozone’s strongest economy this has led to the Euro strengthening against the Pound creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Next week Prime Minister Theresa May is set to address the nation on Tuesday and hopefully we will have the announcement of the recent Supreme Court judgement coming soon.

However, MPs have been explicit in that they want Theresa May to clarify her position with regards the single market before any Brexit talks can begin.

With the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit I feel there are further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as well as other major currencies so if you need to send money abroad in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also able with my experience to help you with the timing of your transfer.

To find out more or if you’d like a free quote when buying or selling currency then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Outlook for 2017 (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have started the year poorly having fallen against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Since rallying just before Christmas the Pound has been on the back foot as uncertainty continues surrounding the issue of Brexit and the ‘will we won’t we’ impact of leaving the single market.

At the moment Prime Minister Theresa May is suggesting that if we are not able to have full control of our borders then she will look to leave the single market and this is one of the main reasons for Sterling’s recent demise against both the US Dollar and even more so against the Euro.

This week the Pound has continued to struggle even though both construction and services data have come out better than expected.

However, the fears continue to mount owing to the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote which will affect how the Bank of England may react in the future.

Next Wednesday the UK will announce both Industrial and Manufacturing data which have in recent times caused big movements for Sterling exchange rates particularly vs the Euro.

Any signs of negative data could cause Sterling to fall and I think with the political uncertainty continuing this will clearly weigh heavily on the Pound over the next few weeks.

With the Supreme Court judgment due to come out later this month until we have some form of resolution I think the Pound could fall lower against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

If you’re in the process of needing to send money to Europe and buy Euros then it may be worth be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates when buying or selling currency but I can also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Could Sterling increase against the Euro if the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trying to hit 1.20 recently and on one occasion following the news of the Italian referendum the Pound broke past the resistance level of 1.20 but the positive movement was rather short lived.

The Pound has been making strong gains vs the single currency since early October when the High Court challenge to Brexit was initially put in place.

With the US Federal Reserve due to meet tonight to discuss interest rates there is a 95% expectation that the central bank will increase interest rates.

The impact this may have on the foreign exchange markets could result in US Dollar strength which typically results in Euro weakness and this could provide clients buying Euros with Sterling the opportunity to possibly see GBPEUR rates break past 1.20 again.

UK inflation yesterday morning came out better than expected at 1.4% which was the highest level since October 2014 and this helped the Pound to make gains vs the Euro.

Tomorrow the Bank of England are due to meet and although there will be no chance of any change in interest rates any positive comments made by Bank of England governor Mark Carney could see Sterling go in an upwards direction.

I predicted last weekend that the Pound would have a strong week and so far my prediction has been accurate and I think the Fed’s decision tonight could see Sterling make gains against the Euro.

If you’re concerned about what is happening between Sterling and the Euro and need to buy or sell property in the Eurozone in the next few weeks or months it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money when buying currency compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like further information about the contracts available or would like a free quote then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@curencies.co.uk

 

 

Could the Pound make further gains against the Euro before the end of the year? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has made gains during the week hitting close to a 4 month high at the start of the week owing to the Italian referendum news which saw Renzi lose the vote on constitutional reform.

The Pound then struggled following the Supreme Court hearing but made gains after the government voted in favour of the UK pursuing Article 50.

On Thursday afternoon the Pound then improved vs the single currency as the European Central Bank announced that although they may be reducing their monthly QE volume form EUR80bn to EUR60bn they did confirm that the current programme due to end in March 2017 will continue.

Yesterday morning UK Trade Balance figures published by the Office of National Statistics confirmed that the figure had reduced which is good news and this was reflected in GBPEUR exchange rates which went in an upwards direction breaking through 1.19 on the Interbank level.

I think there is further gains to be had for the Pound vs the Euro next week and we could possibly challenge 1.20 levels especially if the US Federal Reserve decide to increase interest rates at next Wednesday’s meeting.

If the US do raise rates then investors will likely plough into the Dollar causing Dollar strength and Euro weakness. Good new for anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling.

Both UK and Eurozone inflation data is due out on Tuesday and I think if we see the figures high in the UK then this could see Sterling make gains possibly hitting 1.20 if the news is good.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Supreme Court and Article 50 uncertainty causes Sterling weakness Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have continued to fall since yesterday afternoon as the positive gains following the Italian referendum seem to have disappeared.

The focus will now turn to the ongoing discussions with the Brexit discussion and the current court case involving the Supreme Court.

Prime Minister Theresa May agreed yesterday that she will publish her plan about how the UK will leave the European Union but the timing of the release is as of yet unclear.

It appears as though Theresa May has had her hand forced by Labour who wanted to see what the plan is in order to proceed with Article 50.

Labour would like the plan to be published by January which may coincide with the judgment made by the Supreme Court.

The next potential for volatility for Sterling vs the Euro will come on Thursday when the European Central Bank meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision.

The ECB have been really struggling to control falling inflation recently and their current Quantitative Easing programme does not appear to have had the desired effect.

Therefore, I think even if the central bank does not change the current QE programme any hints that more easing could come could potentially see Sterling make some gains vs the Euro.

The NIESR publishes it latest set of GDP data for the three months up until November at 3pm today and although this data is not the official release it is usually fairly accurate and therefore often has a big impact on exchange rates.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than by using your bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds. 

If you have a currency requirement and would like to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Italian referendum and the impact for Sterling vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates broke briefly past 1.20 overnight on the Interbank level as predicted in some of my previous articles. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced that he will be resigning following the ‘no’ vote in the Italian referendum aimed at reforming the constitution.

In the same way as David Cameron allowed the Brexit vote to happen Renzi authorised this vote to take place and it has ended up going against him forcing him to resign.

The Five Star movement who are aiming to hold their own referendum on EU membership are now likely to gain a bit of momentum and this could see a shift in the political feeling in France, Holland and Germany as they go to the polls next year.

Today, the Supreme Court will be looking at the government’s challenge to overrule the High Court in an attempt to ensure Article 50 will be triggered in March 2017 as planned by Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, the announcement about the ruling is not likely to come out until January 2017 so we could be in for a very uncertain December.

The European Central Bank are due to meet on Thursday and with inflation still running extremely low on the continent the ECB are struggling to combat this problem and could end up with the central bank announcing further Quantitative Easing measures on Thursday and if this happens this could also help push Sterling in an upwards direction against the Euro.

Generally speaking economic data in the UK has been relatively strong during 2016 and it is really only the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote which continues to keep the pressure on Sterling exchange rates. However, as Europe appears to be destabilising politically recently then I think we may see further gains for the Pound towards the end of the year.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The impact of the Italian referendum on Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Euro has hit its best level to buy Euros with Sterling since September with the Pound making huge gains against all major currencies during the course of this week

On Thursday the Brexit secretary David Davis made claims that the UK could look to pay money to the European Union even after we have left the EU in an attempt to keep rights with the single market. This is one the main concerns for the UK’s negotiations and sets the tone that the UK may opt for s ‘soft’ Brexit. This helped the Pound to make some very big gains towards the end of this week.

On Sunday the Italians hold their own referendum on constitutional reform with Italian Prime Minster suggesting previously that he may resign if he is unable to get what he wants. Part of the reform is to centralise the banking system which is currently under huge pressure with large amounts of bad debt. If the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi and he does resign this could see Sterling Euro arguably challenge 1.20 during the early part of next week.

During 2016 we have seen many political upsets first with the Brexit vote back in June and then last month’s US election with Trump becoming the next President. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see a ‘protest’ vote with Renzi possibly resigning. Currency does not react well to political uncertainty and this is why I think we could see GBPEUR rates go in an upwards direction next week.

 

Next week the Supreme Court challenge concerning Article 50 is due to take place so I personally expect next week to be volatile to say the least. If you’re either buying or selling Euros in the weeks and months ahead and are worried about what may happen to exchange rates then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you. If I haven’t covered your currency pair and you would like further information again please get in touch.

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling close to 2 month high to buy the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has gained vs the Euro and the US Dollar after mortgage approvals in the UK jumped to over 67,5000 from the estimate of 65,000. This shows that even in the wake of the Brexit vote people are still borrowing and it highlights that the UK economy is still doing well in spite of the vote to leave the European Union back in June.

The good news about UK mortgage approvals is that it is a good indicator as to the overall health of an economy and one of the first sectors to fall in an economic downturn.

Over the weekend we could see a huge amount of volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates when the Italians hold their own referendum on Sunday regarding constitutional reform.

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suggested that he might step down if the vote does not go his way and political uncertainty often has a big negative impact so if the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi we could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.

Other European countries are going to the polls next year including France and with the right wing Marine Le Pen gaining 20% of the vote according to some recent polls this could see things changing on the continent politically next year.

If you’re in the process of selling your property in France or Spain and are worried about the Euro going in the wrong direction it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank and also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Will Sterling rise against the Euro next week? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Euro has recently hit 10 week highs with the Interbank level breaking through 1.18 during the course of this week. The Pound has gained against all major currencies and particularly vs the single currency with EUR/USD exchange rates close to their lowest levels in over 10 years.

There are various problems on the continent and with 2016 seemingly the year of anti-establishment with the Brexit vote and recently Donald Trump I think there could be further problems for the single currency caused by political instability in the longer term.

The Italians will be holding a referendum in less than 2 weeks which will look at constitutional reform and with the Italians having had 65 governments since the World War politically this could cause further uncertainty and this could be reflected in the value of the Euro against Sterling.

In France Marine le Pen is looking to run for the French president next year and with 5 months to go this is also another reason why I think the Euro could struggle.

However, the problems facing the UK and therefore Sterling is again being caused by political uncertainty. The recent High Court judgement ruled that Theresa May will need parliamentary approval to invoke Article 50 and the next step will be the government’s challenge in the Supreme Court to try and overrule the verdict made by the High Court. This is due to take place in early December but we may not know the outcome until January.

Turning the focus towards UK economic data we have a number of key data releases to watch out for which could impact GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Wednesday UK Consumer Confidence is published which has rebounded back to pre-Brexit levels recently. Business investment has been apparently resilient to the uncertainty caused by the vote to leave the European Union and this data release is likely to highlight my assumption.

On Thursday PMI manufacturing data for November is due to be released. After the index fell in July it has started to gain supported by a weaker Sterling which has encouraged exports so again I think this data could provide Sterling with further support to send GBPEUR rates in an upwards direction.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your trade.

If you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

To find out more or for a free quote then please get in touch directly by sending me an email and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Autumn Statement to decide Sterling exchange rate movement (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have opened up negatively this morning against all major currencies including vs the Euro and the US Dollar as we are now only a few hours away from the Autumn Statement.

The recently appointed Chancellor or the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver the news later today and it could be a tricky release bearing in mind the political events that have taken place so far during 2016.

One of the key issues will be how the Chancellor plans to move away from Osborne’s previous plan to cut the trade deficit by 2020. With GDP expected to be downgraded for 2017 from 2.2% to 1.3% it will be difficult for Hammond to provide too many positive ideas for the UK so I think we could see some problems for Sterling during today’s trading session.

The Pound has seen some gains recently as the tone from Europe appears to be softening towards the Brexit and ongoing talks are that we could see a soft Brexit with possible access to the single market when the negotiations finally begin.

The Italian referendum is also due in a fortnight so politically there are clearly problems ahead for the Eurozone and this could be reflected in Euro weakness in the medium term.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term then it may be worth looking at doing something shortly before the Autumn Statement is released.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling currency but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Or call me directly on 00441494787478 and ask for me directly when calling in.