Pound Sterling Forecast

Ok, I called that data may be negative yet once again the markets have surprised us and the Pound has gained this morning!

I know, it is kind of crazy but it is mainly down to the fact that further QE doesn’t look as close as had been expected – This has been an extremely negative subject for the Pound over the past few years and the fact it is a little further away again has been seen as a positive for the Pound, eroding the poor growth worries (for the time being).

That’s my take on it so far…

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and want to achieve the very best exchange rates along with an extremely high level of personal service, contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to assist you.

After a reasonably quiet day on the markets tomorrow could bring much of the same, however first thing at 09:30am we do have the release of U.K Retail Sales for the month of December.

For those of us unlucky enough to be stuck in the U.K last December you may remember just how dire it was with all the snow, and the high street took a bit hit over what should have been a booming time for many retailers.

This year, I have seen reports that business was booming, this may lead to a reasonable figure in the morning and a short term spike for the Pound.

Of course many analysts will already be expecting a good figure so anything less than good may do quite the opposite but this is certainly one to keep a keen eye on.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker…. Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.

Some great movements seen of late for those looking to buy Euros, however you must still be aware of the problems within the U.K that are managing to slither beneath the headlines currency wise and the Pound is still making great gains against the Euro.

Unemployment in the U.K has hit its highest point in 17 years and we just this mornnig had much worse than expected Retail Sales results, there are consistent mentions of strikes in the U.K in many different sectors and there is certainly a grey cloud emerging over us for 2012, yes it might blow over and we may see blue skies towards the summer, but also it could open up to create a real downpour on the U.K economy.

I have many clients at present waiting for the golden 1.20 mark against the Euro however all I can say is this needs to be thought out more…. Just like setting your alarm clock in the morning it is very easy to aim for an exact figure like 07:30am or 08:00am, this is the same with currency rates, everyone aims for 1.15 or 1.20 – The problem you get is that when rates approach these levels they find it very hard to break through as thousands and thousands of orders get filled at 1.20 pushing rates straight back down again. Remember, you need rates to go over and above 1.20 to be able to buy at 1.20 yourself so this makes it very hard to achieve.

The sensible option is to aim for 1.19 and be one step ahead of the rest in case rates just don’t break through 1.20 enough and you miss the boat… That would be my tactic in this minefield of currency movements.

Great news for USD or AED sellers as all this uncertainty is pushing your rates in the right direction again, also those looking for the Antipodean Currencies AUD,NZD and ZAR) however remember these trends are very much short term at the moment and rate movements are turning around quicker than  I can say Quantitative Easing (Although that does take a while!)

The key to this market is being in a postiion to book out a rate of exchange and making sure you don’t get too greedy, should you have an upcoming transfer to make be it buying or selling Sterling then feel free to contact me directly, leaving a brief message and a contact number for me to give you a call on – I can be reached on djw@currencies.co.uk  Or you can fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page.

Again it appears that Italy, Greece and Europe are taking the headlines but we also need to remember that there are still key data releases due for the U.K this morning and this afternoon.

At 09:30am we see Industrial and Manufacturing data, last time around this was particuarly poor so should this be getting any worse then it could start a turn around for the Pound, however a slightly better release may well push us on that little bit higher. Later on today we see the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) release their GDP predictions. The NIESR are a well respected think tank within the U.K and their opinion can drive the markets should it be different than predicted. Expected is for them to echo the last release and come out with 0.5% however from memory I feel seem to note they have revised their predictions down a few times this year… This and indeed poor manufacturing data could come in from the blindside for those waiting on more Euro doom and gloom today and knock the Pound back a peg or two.

If you have an upcoming transaction to make and want to compare your bank or current broker (you don’t buy a TV without shopping around!) Contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and see just how much I can save you along with adding the very highest level of customer service.

Good morning readers, an early start for Pound followers this morning, GDP figures for the U.K are released at 09:30am and as mentioned above, although they are not as important as the initial release, any major change to expectations could easily lead to high volatility.

Expectations are for no change to the first release and for GDP for quarter one to stay at 0.5% so a drop would be worrying and and increase great news.

Gross Domestic Product data generally means whether or not the economy grew or shrank over a period of time (usually measured on an either monthly, quarterly or yearly basis) and should an economy have two quarters of negative growth this leads to them officially being in a recession.

I do not believe the U.K will be heading back this way anytime soon, however there have been many surprises pop up over the past few years, personally it wouldn’t surprise me to see figures as expected if not slightly better this morning, and potentially some Sterling strength today.

If your business carries out regular transactions involving currency exchange, you are buying or selling a property abroad or have any other currency requirement be it large or small, fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to save you a substantial amount over using your bank.

Sterling had a minor spike this morning as inflation data was released this morning, however following the release rates have dropped back fairly close to where they started the day off again, apart from against the Japanese Yen, as i’m sure followers will be aware this one hasn’t exactly been stable ever since the horrific disaster.

A great overview of the latest inflation figures can be viewed here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13421614 however if you wish to discuss the implications then contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form on the right hand side of this page.

The Pound is once again on a knife edge this morning ahead of unemployment data due out this morning. Should we see another negative release for the U.K we could be pushed even closer to the 1.10 level following the surprise fall in inflation yesterday.

Following that release the Pound dropped against most major currencies and even I didn’t expect that! As I have been saying for some time now this market really is not one to play around with and the outlook doesn’t look like it will change for the time being.

Interest rate hikes in the U.K appear once again to be drifting away and with that so does the value of the Pound, this time last year most analysts were predicting three rate hikes in 2010 and Sterling to be way into the 1.20s by the end of last year, it nearly got there, however we have had no rate hikes still and may not for some time and the Pound has taken a huge knock again against most currencies.

The only shining light for those with currency to buy is against the Dollar, we are still at great levels as the States appear to also have lots of problems of their own and are also quite a way off of a rate hike.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors and the markets move on rumour as well as fact so the mere chance of a hike can shift a currencies value quite rapidly.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

The bank of England have just released the minutes from their last meeting and indeed there has been no change in the voting regarding an interest rate hike.

Some investors may have speculated that potentially one more member of the BOE may have voted in favour therefore the fact that they didn’t has led to weakness straight after the release.

This does now essentially push the probability of a rate hike in the U.K further back and for those of you that are not aware a hike in interest rates generally leads to strength for the currency concerned as it then becomes more attractive to investors.

If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.

Good morning all…. Retail sales data is due out at 09:30am this morning and in my opinion it will be a big market mover it is just a hard call as to which way things will go.

Personally I highly doubt that predictions will be spot on as with the terrible weather seen in the U.K in December it will be a really hard one for analysts to call… I am going to stick my neck on the line and say that the data will actually come out better than expected after speaking to many retailers I know.

Although the lead up to Christmas was particuarly poor, the section between Christmas and New Year was manic and many stores recorded record sales for that period…. there were people in their 1000s waiting to get into shopping centres to grab bargains, this may well push things back on track in my opinion but only time will tell and the release this morning may well set the tone for the rest of the days movements.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly. Alternatively, if you would like assistance in finding your dream home abroad then feel free to visit www.overseaspropertysearcher.com and let one of our property experts make the hunt much easier for you.

Good morning readers,

Today inflation is going to be the main focus for the Pound as we see a release at 09:30am which may give further information as to how much time the BOE have to play with before an interest rate hike becomes a necessity.

It appears inflation is still slowly creeping up and although some believe it may naturally drop away over the course of 2011 it is more than likely we will need a rate hike in the coming months to start pushing it back in the right direction.

People in the U.K have become used to lower interest rates and some are still spending freely keeping inflation high and potentially setting themselves up for a fall further down the line, therefore by raising interest rates it should slow spending and also lower inflation slightly.

Obviously this may cause problems for many if this is done too early however an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes it much more attractive for investors to invest money into that particular economy, so anyone waiting for Sterling rates to go up may want to keep a very close eye on comments surrounding rate hikes in the near term.

If you are buying or selling a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or simply need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly. Alternatively, if you would like assistance in finding your dream home abroad then feel free to visit www.overseaspropertysearcher.com and let one of our property experts make the hunt much easier for you.