Tag Archives: U.S Dollar
The week ahead of economic data – Pound Sterling forecast against Euro, U.S Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and all majors – What will happen next with the Euro?
Euro Forecast and latest news from Europe
The Euro will remain the main talking point for weeks and months to come. Bond markets are showing extreme stress which is usually the first sign of a major crisis and the Euro has hit record lows against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar recently.
The real question everyone is asking is just how much further will it go? Personally I feel there is more weakness to come. Bond markets in Spain are now at Euro era highs and well over 7% (usually the unofficial trigger point for a bailout) Spain is the headline concern at present and on Friday Valencia, Spain’s most indebted region asked for assistance and an 18 Billion Euro assistance program aimed to assist regional finances.
Should Spain require a bailout then we will see a much different kettle of fish to the bailouts we have seen of late, personally I feel it will trigger the beginning of the end of the Euro for numerous economies and global markets worldwide will become extremely fragile to say the least. If you have Euros to sell or indeed are in the process of selling a property overseas a forward contract may be sensible. With a forward contract you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years for just a small deposit (which can be taken in Sterling) taking away the stress of continuing Euro weakness and leaving you in the peace of mind you know how much money you will actually receive for your property. Feel free to get in touch today on 01494 787 478 or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk for more information on this contract type.
Pound Sterling Forecast The week ahead
Tomorrow gives us a fairly quiet start to the week with European Consumer Confidence the most notable data release due out in the afternoon, however personally I feel the markets will be fixated on what is happening with European bond levels I feel the Sterling – Euro rate will edge closer to 1.30 throughout the day.
Tuesday we have mortgage approvals data for the U.K which was fairly poor last time around, and retail sales figures for Canada later on in the afternoon. One thing that may throw up some volatility at any point in the day is the fact that Troika (lenders from the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union are due to visit Greece.
Wednesday we have inflationary data from Australia very early in the morning so anyone with AUD interest may wish to put protection in place by means of a stop loss or limit order overnight. U.K GDP data is also out at 09:30am on Tuesday morning and after a fairly poor performance from the U.K of late any sign of things looking up and the Pound may have a good day. Lastly on Wednesday later on in the evening those with an interest in New Zealand Dollars should be aware we have the interest rate decision for New Zealand at 10:00pm. No major changes are expected however a sudden cut in rates could lead to a sharp weakening of the NZD overnight.
Thursday is fairly quiet data wise however like with Monday bond markets will no doubt be key and by Thursday I expect the pace of speculation about the troubles with Spain to be at a maximum leading to very volatile rates of exchange.
U.S annualized GDP figures are due on Friday afternoon along with a host of other data. In times of uncertainty you do tend to see the Dollar gain strength as investors pull of riskier assets and look for a ‘safer haven’. The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents a volatile end to the week.
Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.
Sterling forecast and currency update against USD EUR AUD ZAR NZD CAD and general market view
The Pound
Again still being one of the best of a bad bunch the Pound is remaining fairly stable against most of the majors – The NIESR (National Institution of Economic and Social Research) Britain’s longest established economic research institute with over 60 years doing so. Their predictions tend to be fairly close to the mark and are well respected so we may see a drop for the Pound should they place the U.K further back in recession.
The Euro
The Greek election will be a major point in the Eurozone’s history and it looks like the Anti-Austerity party just about have their heads in front. Should this continue to be the case then we may be looking at seeing the first economy leaving the Euro as no negotiation appears to be the stance from Germany and that is exactly what this party are looking for. Greece may then essentially be declared bankrupt and in my opinion this would signal plans being put into action for them leaving the Euro.
On top of this we have the latest news on the banks in Spain. They have been allocated up to 100 Billion Euros however we saw roughly 66 Billion Euros leave Spanish banks alone in March so I personally only see this as putting buckets of water into a boat
which clearly has much bigger holes in it… Unless severe action is taken that boat will eventually sink.
AUD/NZD/CAD/ZAR
As we have seen of late these currencies are being highly effected by investors attitude to risk and seeing further problems for Europe could well lead to these becoming even more jittery. I personally can see a spike occurring against these currencies for
the Pound if the Greek election goes in favour of the Anti-Austerity party.
U.S Dollar
The USD benefited greatly over the past few weeks as concerns regarding the Eurozone grew and personally I think we could see this happen again in the next week or so (depending on election results) I doubt we will see rates creep back up to the 1.60 mark for some time now unless we see some highly positive news for Europe or some very negative comments from the states.
The week for the Pound has been a little more positive – Sterling strength following better PMI construction and services data highs against U.S Dollar and South African Rand
The Pound has had a better week this week after last weeks gloomy GDP figures.
We saw some great figures in the construction and services sectors which has really helped the Pound gain against pretty much all major currencies inclusive of a 12 week high against the U.S Dollar.
All eyes for those with Euro interests will be on the European Central Bank interest rate decision today at 12:45pm and the next big one for the States is Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm tomorrow.
We seem to be reasonably stable against the Australian Dollar however have made really big gains against the South African Rand due to problems in Egypt.
Plenty going on at the moment globally so be sure to check back on a regular basis for the latest news and views from us.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Sterling hits an 8 month high against the USD
Pound sterling exchange rates have hit an 8th month high against the USD this morning hitting a high of 1.6065. The USD seems to weakening by the day at the moment hitting a 15 year low against the YEN and hitting parity with the CAD all on the back of growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy next month.
There have been rumours that the same will happen in the UK which has resulted in the pound losing around 8 cents against the Euro recently. If the same happens with the USD we could see GBP-USD exchange rates hover over the 1.60 barrier for the next few weeks.
Historically the pound has always been around the 1.50-1.60 leveland we all got quite spoilt when the pound was trading with the US Dollar at above 1.90. Unfortunately I can not see the pound getting anywhere near those levels for a very long time and now seems to be a fantastic time to be buying the US Dollar if you have an up and coming currency requirement.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
CHF and JPY Continue their climb as flight to safety goes on
Sterling lost further ground against the Jananese Yen and Swiss Franc yesterday following investors continuing to run to the perceived ‘safer havens’ of the JPY and CHF.
Years ago the flight to safety would have been to the Dollar and indeed gold however in the current climate and the states seemingly heading closer and closer to a double dip recession investors are now running scared from the USD and putting their funds into the CHF and JPY hence making both stronger.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Pound Sterling forecast – will it gain strength this summer against Euro, Australian Dollar, U.S Dollar and all major currencies?
Good morning to you all!
Sterling has faced a rocky few years of late and as all of you will be aware has lost a huge amount of ground against various major currencies.
Many of my clients have been asking me of late whether or not this is the start of the turnaround? Well, in truth I think it is against the Euro and Australian Dollar yet we still have a battle on our hands against the U.S Dollar and Swiss Franc.
The reason behind my thoughts are as follows…. The Euro Zone is finally showing the major cracks they have managed to smooth over for the past few years and with one central bank dealing with such a variety of economies in my opinion this only spells trouble going forward.
The Australian Dollar will more than likely still make the odd comeback along the way against the Pound however I think the main strength has now disappeared as they bring in the super tax for the mining industry and the potential (be it further down the line) of a hung Parliament will keep on holding it back – remember what happened to the Pound during our election?!
The U.S continue their fears of a double dip recession however the common saying is that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold which leads me to believe that this will hold us back from major gains for the time being, the problem is every time they show a poor data release investors will be wary of what is to come further down the line for the U.K.
The Swiss Franc appears to be going from strength to strength… the currencies reserves have increased four-fold in the past year and it is apparently now the most favourable currency for investors at present, this is mainly due to it being a ‘safer have’ compared to currencies of many other major economies now perceived as generally quite risky.. I know given the choice of the Euro Zone or Switzerland exactly where I would look to shift my funds with their current banking situation!
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Daniel Wright
Sterling weak against most major currencies – holding up against Euro
Sterling has continued to fall over the weekend against a basket of major currencies inclusive of the U.S Dollar, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen and many more.
The Pound has lost a lot of value on a trade weighted basis over the past week however has pretty much stayed solid against the Euro due to the many underlying problems throughout the group of economies.
Obviously the PIIGS of Europe especially Greece are still holding back any positive movement for the Euro against all major currencies and it appears that the Pound and Euro are locked into a battle as to who can weaken the most.
The Bank Of England minutes this week are key for Sterling and are due out on Wednesday morning, those with upcoming transactions to make must keep in close contact with a professional and dedicated broker who can ensure you have the tools in place to make sure you don’t get hit hard whatever the result.
There are a variety of other releases due out this week for the U.K and overseas which will all have an effect on the cost of your currency, today however is rather quiet.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
