Tag Archives: u.s
This week is to be of great interest for those with upcoming currency transfers – A lot of economic data to consider!
This week is expected to be a fairly volatile one for Sterling against most major currencies as we are due lots of economic data out from across the globe over the course of the weeks trading.
Today will no doubt be the calm before the storm as we have Labour day over in the States leading to slightly thinner trading conditions and not too much in the way of data out either.
Here is an overview of what to expect for the week ahead and which moments to keep an extra keen eye on the market for in your particular circumstances.
One for very early starters and potentially to think about today if you are based in the U.K is the Australian Interest Rate decision due at 05:30am on Tuesday morning. No change to rates is expected however be aware we could see a surprise on this one as there Had been speculation of a rate cut to push back the ever strong AUD. An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike positive so any movement or even hint of rate movement could lead to market volatility overnight.
Following this another for early birds is the Swiss Gross Domestic Product figure – GDP measures the amount an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and in this instance the Swiss economy is expected to grown but by a lot less than the rate it had been growing at, should this happen we may see the Swiss Franc lose a little ground on Tuesday morning so for anyone looking to sell Swiss Francs it may be prudent to do at some point today.
For Euro followers we than have a little Inflationary data for the Euro zone at 10:00am.
Again Australia starts the ball rolling on Wednesday with GDP figures coming out at 02:30am – Expectations are for the economy still to be growing however for the pace to have dropped a little, potential for AUD weakness overnight is there should this be the case.
Some Inflation Data out at 08:15am for Switzerland following by a raft of inflationary data floating in from Europe, European Retail sales and the European unemployment rate at 10:00am so Euro buyers and sellers really do need to be on the ball during the morning session, if you have an upcoming Euro transfer yet don’t have time to follow a market that moves every two seconds then let me do the donkey work for you – Feel free to email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org and get a specialist on your side which could save you thousands of Pounds.
Later in the day we have the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 14:00pm – No change to interest rates is expected however any comments on economic change may lead to a volatile afternoon for the Canadian Dollar.
Thursday doesn’t let us down when it comes to data and we have some larger releases for Sterling, Euro and Dollar interest.
First things first we have European GDP figures at 10:00am to kick start the day with a bang followed by the U.K interest rate decision due out at 12:00pm – Again no change in rates is expected but mention of QE and any other economic tactics could lead to a shaky afternoon for the Pound.
Shortly after this we have the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and an interest rate cut is on the cards for this one. Should we see a cut the Euro may slightly weaken however when a release is already forecast by analysts the market tends to move in advance of this so should we not see a cut the Euro may strengthen further with force as the market corrects itself. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi also holds a press conference at 13:30pm and this can give indication on future policy and lead to a very jumpy hour or so for Euro Exchange Rates.
Thursday afternoon will see the release of some employment data for the States so the Dollar may join the volatility party if we do see any change from expectations.
To finish the week off we have early morning Swiss Unemployment at 06:45am and then some Industrial and Manufacturing data out for the U.K at 09:30am which can lead to large swings for the Pound depending on how it comes out, further GDP data for the Euro zone is due at 11:00 and then finally Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm we have a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.
This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumours and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.
If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me directly email@example.com I welcome all enquiries for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.
Pound Euro fairly flat today – Further drop against U.S Dollar and a welcome climb against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand
The Pound has had a mixed day of trading so far staying fairly flat against the Euro during a week of gains, dropping away against the Dollar as investors plunge back into safer havens.
We also have seen fairly good gains against the Australian Dollar following poor unemployment figures overnight and the prospect of seeing poor GDP figures for China tomorrow, which may lead to a great end to the week for those in the process of emigrating either currently or in the near future.
The Pound has once again had a poor run against the so called ‘riskier currencies’ such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and could really do with making a fightback, tomorrow hopefully may be the catalyst for this. Personally I feel we aren’t far away from another front page European ‘crisis’ subject and that alone may push these currency pairings back in the right direction again as half the reason we have been held back is due to the fact that although all has far from gone quiet on the European crisis front there is a little bit of certainty surrounding the situation.
Global certainty tends to strengthen the riskier currencies and can weaken the Dollar so another big spanner thrown in the works surrounding the European situation could lead to further Dollar strength and a buying opportunity for those with an interest in AUD, NZD and CAD.
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Be aware there could be big news around the corner – U.S Dollar gathers pace and bond markets are stressed
I do not want to cause a panic but I am starting to get the feeling that we could have some major news coming out fairly soon.
The Dollar appears to be strengthening at an extremely rapid pace and is very jumpy. The last time I saw rates acting like this was in 2008 and we all know what happened then… Yes there is the argument that the Dollar is acting as such due to growing concerns over the Euro but also it just seems that there is a lot going on and a fairly consistent climb for the greenback against everything.
I’m not saying that we are definately due to see something major, but this is only my personal opinion and I just have a funny feeling about the path that currency rates have taken this week, you do tend to see a sell of at the end of a month which can present fairly big movements but i’m not sure this is all down to that.
One thing that is guaranteed is that we have a really rocky period ahead of us whatever you are looking to do.
If you have a currency transaction to carry out then you need to have a broker on your side, and an active one as well as rates are jumping around a lot without warning, so unless you are able to keep a close eye on rates all day every day then make sure you have assistance. I can help you with bank to bank transfers, we have numerous contract types available such as a limit order, stop loss and forward contracts. Feel free to contract me directly by emailing me email@example.com or calling me directly 01494 787 478 please ask for Daniel Wright.
Brief Update – Sterling gains rapidly against Dollar this afternoon following U.S growth expectation downgrade
The pound has made great gains against the U.S dollar this afternoon following comments from membersa of the Federal Reserve that growth expectations are lower than originally expected, also another member of the Fed has commented that he believes their latest policy will not work… leading to concerns that the Fed are arguing amongst themsleves – not a good sign at all!
Keep your eyes peeled, the week is getting interesting again
Pound Sterling forecast against Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar – What data is due out this week? What will happen during the start of the week?
The U.K faces a flurry of extremely important data this week, we also see some key releases from other economies that could well effect other currencies against Sterling – the following releases are due:
Tonight 02:30am – Australian Meeting Minutes – Much like the Bank of England minutes this release will explain how the Reserve Bank of Australia came to their decision on how to combat their economic situation and what to do with interest rates. This may lead to major movements for GBP-AUD overnight so if you do have an upcoming transfer to do be it buying or selling it may be prudent to consider your options in advance. We saw a tricky few weeks for the RBA, at one point it looked like Australia may cut rates, then raise them and now i’m fairly sure that investors are quite unsure as to what may happen so tonights release is extremely important.
Tomorrow 07:00am – German GDP data - With Germany being the largest economy within the single currency this release has fair importance as to what we see happen to the Euro tomorrow, it is followed up later on at 09:00 by European Union GDP figures and EU Trade balance. Predicted for Germany is a pretty solid growth, however for the EU a minor one, and weaker than predicted ans the Euro may suffer throughout the course of the day so keep your eyes peeled for this one!
Tomorrow 09:30am – U.K Inflation Data - Inflation is slowly rising in the U.K and already well above BOE Govenror Mervyn king’s 2% target, should inflation be creeping up further then it causes a little bit of a sticky situation for the BOE – In order to combat rising inflation generally central banks would look to raise interest rates, however with the current economic situation within the U.K the BOE can’t really take this as an option just yet, therefore they are stuck between a rock and a hard place as to what to do… Potentially the Quantitative Easing seen over the past couple of years is a large factor to the level of inflation along with rising global commodity prices however something will need to be done sooner rather than later to avoid this spiraling too much further and making life very difficult for the Pound and the people in the U.K.
Wednesday – Bank Of England minutes& Employment data 09:30am - Wednesday sees the turn of the Bank Of England to show their hand as to what they plan to do next, we see the result of the voting at the last interest rate decision and who was in favour of any further Quantitative Easing (more votes in favour of it would be seen as very negative for the Pound.) Mervyn King seems to have a talent generally involving weakening the Pound by opening his mouth so be aware if you have a pending transaction to do this week.
Thursday – U.K Retail Sales – 09:30am - Another busy morning for the Pound on Thursday as retail sales are released, a key indicator to economic performance and investors will be looking for a positive movement in the retail sector, expected is a mere increase of 0.3% so any change to this could lead to great volatility.
In short the start of this week sees a huge amount of economic data out, and this may well take the reigns again as to the main driver of the currency markets this week instead of ongoing debt issues, downgrades, devaluing and carry trading being at the forefront.
This week could well either lead to the pound being loved again, or people steering well and truely clear dependant on what we see come out, I would be wary of Wednesday’s minutes as the bigger release this week and personally I feel we may see Sterling have a bad (but not terrible) week.
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Whilst in London we are seeing scenes of pure disgrace on the streets, the world is facing some serious and extremely worrying times ahead and today it was the turn of the European Central Bank to step forward and take the limelight with their announcement that they will be buying large amounts of Spanish and Italian debt in another step to try and stop the next level of economies involved with the Euro climbing aboard the next train to bailout central station – A very dark and gloomy place full of angry Germans!
This led to another dire day on the stock markets and somehow overshadowed the downgrading of the U.S credit rating by S & P. I personally thought I would wake up to see major Dollar weakness today, however some quick talking from high profile figures has meant that maybe S & P were a little too quick to judge and although in truth the States are in trouble and have one hell of a battle on their hands – A downgrade is not something they should be receiving at this stage in many peoples eyes.
Currency markets are so hard to judge at the moment because in all honesty you just do not know what is coming next and from which direction, trying to judge them is probably the same as being a policeman in full riot gear in London tryingto work out where the next rock is coming from – a horrible situation to be in and not one to gamble on.
Whatever currency you need to transfer there are ways to protect yourself, you can place a limit order or stop loss order to ensure you don’t wake up to the nasty surprise that the property you are buying abroad has become 4% more expensive. These tools work 24 hours a day and cost nothing to place, they can be cancelled, changed or amended as you please assuming they have not filled and just give you the peace of mind you aren’t going to get a shock at the next stop of this financial jorney the world is going on right now.
Contact me directly email@example.com or fill in the enquiry form if you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and are worried yourself as to what to do and I will be happy to explain the options available and how to go about them.
U.K – Sterling GBP
The Pound has had a strange few weeks, continuing to drop away against the Swiss Franc, New Zealand and Australian Dollar, yet gaining back some ground against the U.S Dollar and Euro.
Economic data from the U.K has not been terribly good however not terribly bad either of late compared to many others, the key would be for data to improve, spending cuts to appear to be working and investors to start believing that the Pound is a good currency to hold once again during these troubled times worldwide.
Europe - Euro
Well documented problems in the Euro Zone have led to a shaky time for the Euro of late, we have seen various credit rating agencies downgrading numerous countries, not to mention the ongoing problem with Greece that appear to be merely delayed rather than anywhere near fully rectified.
My opinion on the Euro is that I am merely waiting for big trouble to arise, this may not neccesarily mean that the pound will suddenly gain a huge amount of ground back due to the exposure the U.K has of these countries. I do however expect us to be higher than we are once the cracks start appearing again.
U.S .A – Dollar
The States also are having big issues and with GDP (Gross Domestic product) figures today being revised down it looks like a rocky road ahead. I would not be surprised to see the pound make some gains against the Dollar at times in the short term, however a saying on the market is that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold so do be a little wary that we could see a ripple effect head this way which in turn may hold back our recovery and hit us against most major currencies.
The Australian Dollar has had a good week following higher than expected inflation figures in Australia leading to the chance of rate cuts disappearing for now and the AUD holding firm below the 1.50 barrier.
Personally, at some point in the future I expect a major movement against the AUD much like what we saw in October 2008 as investors ruch to unwind carry trades and be ahead of the currency market movements, this could lead to a snowball effect and the AUD losing ground rapidly however recovery in the U.K may need to start showing decent signs of recovery first and foremost.
Swiss Franc – CHF
The Swiss Franc has still gone from strength to strength against the Pound and also still appears to be at the forefront of investors minds when looking for a safe haven currency. Surely this cannot continue and sooner or later the fact that Swiss exports will be so expensive it may bring them trouble further down the line. This once again brings back the hope that the Pound takes over the Swiss Franc as the safe haven of choice, and those with sky high Swiss Franc mortage costs can breath a small sigh of relief that things are going back in the right direction.
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Have a great weekend!