Tag Archives: unemployment
This week is to be of great interest for those with upcoming currency transfers – A lot of economic data to consider!
This week is expected to be a fairly volatile one for Sterling against most major currencies as we are due lots of economic data out from across the globe over the course of the weeks trading.
Today will no doubt be the calm before the storm as we have Labour day over in the States leading to slightly thinner trading conditions and not too much in the way of data out either.
Here is an overview of what to expect for the week ahead and which moments to keep an extra keen eye on the market for in your particular circumstances.
Tuesday
One for very early starters and potentially to think about today if you are based in the U.K is the Australian Interest Rate decision due at 05:30am on Tuesday morning. No change to rates is expected however be aware we could see a surprise on this one as there Had been speculation of a rate cut to push back the ever strong AUD. An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned and a hike positive so any movement or even hint of rate movement could lead to market volatility overnight.
Following this another for early birds is the Swiss Gross Domestic Product figure – GDP measures the amount an economy grew or shrank during a specific period and in this instance the Swiss economy is expected to grown but by a lot less than the rate it had been growing at, should this happen we may see the Swiss Franc lose a little ground on Tuesday morning so for anyone looking to sell Swiss Francs it may be prudent to do at some point today.
For Euro followers we than have a little Inflationary data for the Euro zone at 10:00am.
Wednesday
Again Australia starts the ball rolling on Wednesday with GDP figures coming out at 02:30am – Expectations are for the economy still to be growing however for the pace to have dropped a little, potential for AUD weakness overnight is there should this be the case.
Some Inflation Data out at 08:15am for Switzerland following by a raft of inflationary data floating in from Europe, European Retail sales and the European unemployment rate at 10:00am so Euro buyers and sellers really do need to be on the ball during the morning session, if you have an upcoming Euro transfer yet don’t have time to follow a market that moves every two seconds then let me do the donkey work for you – Feel free to email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and get a specialist on your side which could save you thousands of Pounds.
Later in the day we have the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 14:00pm – No change to interest rates is expected however any comments on economic change may lead to a volatile afternoon for the Canadian Dollar.
Thursday
Thursday doesn’t let us down when it comes to data and we have some larger releases for Sterling, Euro and Dollar interest.
First things first we have European GDP figures at 10:00am to kick start the day with a bang followed by the U.K interest rate decision due out at 12:00pm – Again no change in rates is expected but mention of QE and any other economic tactics could lead to a shaky afternoon for the Pound.
Shortly after this we have the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and an interest rate cut is on the cards for this one. Should we see a cut the Euro may slightly weaken however when a release is already forecast by analysts the market tends to move in advance of this so should we not see a cut the Euro may strengthen further with force as the market corrects itself. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi also holds a press conference at 13:30pm and this can give indication on future policy and lead to a very jumpy hour or so for Euro Exchange Rates.
Thursday afternoon will see the release of some employment data for the States so the Dollar may join the volatility party if we do see any change from expectations.
Friday
To finish the week off we have early morning Swiss Unemployment at 06:45am and then some Industrial and Manufacturing data out for the U.K at 09:30am which can lead to large swings for the Pound depending on how it comes out, further GDP data for the Euro zone is due at 11:00 and then finally Non Farm Payroll data at 13:30pm we have a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.
This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumours and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.
If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk I welcome all enquiries for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.
What now for the pound? Forecast GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, AUD, NZD and ZAR
Sterling exchange rates fell yesterday to a 3 week low against the greenback falling back into the 1.59 territory. This is a something that I personally feel could continue, particularly with the continuing unrest in Europe. With the US dollar still very much the global currency of choice (mainly as so many commodities are priced in dollars) during times of unrest the dollar will normally outperform most majors. I for one feel this trend is close to happening as investors digest the problems facing Spain (their bond prices reached a record high for 2012 on Monday at 6.218%). This is creeping ever closer to the 7% levels at which Greece, Portugal and Ireland had to seek bailouts and with Spain potentially a much larger problem, I really feel this will weigh on the Euro (I would expect levels to remain above 1.25 heading towards 1.26 and beyond in the short term).
For this reason I too think the US dollar will begin to find support as investor’s look to move their money to the relative safety of the dollar and we could easily see a move back towards 1.58 in the coming days. For the best exchange rates on your transfer and to discuss the various contracts we can offer in an attempt to maximise your currency exchange then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Greece heads back to the polls as Hollande officially takes over from Sarkozy
Greece is set to go to the polls again after days of coalition talks failed to produce an agreement on a new government, on the day the new French president Francois Hollande was officially sworn into office. Mr Hollande said he was aware of the challenges ahead, including the debt crisis, and vowed to “open a new path in Europe”.
Mr Hollande called for “a compromise” over the German-led focus on austerity as the way out of the Eurozone, however in on goings in Greece still appear to be dominating the Eurozone and the Euro.
At the elections on 6th May, the results showed a majority of Greek voters backing parties opposed to austerity plans demanded by the EU and IMF in return for two bailouts. Polls suggest the leftist Syriza bloc, which came second in the 6th
May vote and rejects all further cutbacks, could become the largest party after a new election. Syriza wants to renegotiate the bailout package but also wants to keep Greece in the euro.
However European leaders say they will cut funding for Greece if it rejects the bailout agreed in March. This would effectively mean bankruptcy for Greece and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble again ruled out amending the agreement. The Greek president Karolos Papoulias will meet all political leaders at 13:00 local time (10:00 GMT) on Wednesday to put in place an interim government until the new vote, which is expected to take
place on 10th or 17th June.
I feel this will continue to heap pressure on the Euro and any Euro sellers, certainly if funds are not liquid, may wish to consider a forward contract to guarantee their rate in advance. For Euro buyers this is potentially good news, however for anyone with an interest in GBP/EUR look out for the unemployment figures and Bank of England Inflation report at 09:30 and 10:30 respectiveley.
What now for the Aussie, Kiwi and Rand?
Recent moves against these three currencies have been dramatic to say the least. Since the year lows in February we have seen the pound gain 9.5% against the Aussie, 9.7% against the Kiwi and 10.8% against the Rand. On a transfer of £200k between the high and low during this time this makes a respective difference of AUD 29,400, NZD 41,400 and ZAR 288,000. Is it time to take advantage?
This recent trend must be somewhat of a relief to the many clients and individuals emigrating to that part of world. I personally feel with the volatility in Greece this trend could continue in theshort term. But to use the analogy of an elastic band, I do feel these currencies could snap back at any point. However until a degree of stability is restored in Greece (Christine Legarde head of the IMF was quick to rule out a breakup of the Euro) this run may continue, just make sure you are in a position to take advantage.
To dicuss the this report and my views or to run through yoru individual exchange requirement then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478
U.K Unemployment hits worst levels in 17 years
This morning saw the release of U.K unemployment and it once again highlighted what I said yesterday…..
All the hype and news surrounding the Eurozone is indeed helping people forget that the U.K economy is certainly not in great shape and we have plenty of problems to deal with here ourselves, let alone having to throw money into assistance for other failing European economies .
Sterling rates have dropped against most major currencies in trading this morning, and just to round off the morning we have Mervyn King releasing his quarterly inflation report – Over the past few years the pattern seems to have been the Pound gaining value over a short period of time, all looking rosy and then before you know it something coming out to knock us straight back down again, and Mervyn King usually has his say in that talking down the economy at every opportunity!
Could lead to an interesting end to the week for sure, if you have a transfer to carry out and wish to know what is happening and why, and want to secure a much better rate of exchange than your bank or current broker, contact me today djw@currencies.co.uk
Unemployment rate highest since 1994 – Day of doom and gloom again for the Pound however a sharp jump against the Dollar
To quote one of my fellow traders Sam this morning, “The Government schemes to get people into work to drive us out of economic turmoil are about as useful at the moment as a Blackberry mobile phone.” Both are having a hard time of it lately thats for sure!
This followed poor unemployment figures out for the U.K yesterday, which assisted Sterling in dropping below 1.14 against the Euro for the first time in a couple of weeks after a few minor spikes and some great buying opportunities for those purchasing a property or goods from within the Euro Zone.
This once again highlights how easy it is to keep holding out for that little bit more and to then get caught out. I see so many people do this on a daily basis and if I could give any of you a tip that are in a similar situation, set yourself a realistic target you are happy with and if it gets there – BUY IT.
You can always place a limit order, this tool means that even if your rate becomes achievable at 4am on a Sunday then your currency gets bought out for you – eliminating the risk of you missing out through being unavailable, you would merely receive a phone call upon the limit order being filled asking for settlement under the terms agreed.
If you want more information on limit orders then email me djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain them to you in full.
Today we see trade balance figures for the U.K at 09:30am – keep your eyes peeled for this one as further negative data for the the U.K could add to Sterling woes for the week.
The only plus point so far, is the gains against the USD and JPY – The Pound climbed over 1% against the two in yesterdays trading however appears to be slipping back again first thing, we have a flurry of U.S data out this afternoon so this minor spike may be short lived.
Sterling against the perceived riskier currencies has felt the pinch as investors have maybe started to look into carry trading and riskier investments even though in my opnion we are in a market much like 2008 where you just do not know what is around the corner next!
Contact me djw@currencies.co.uk whether you have a currency requirement be it buying or selling any of the majors then I will be able to help you save money over the banks or your current broker, along with ensuring you receive the bery highest level of service to boot.
Sterling shaky ahead of U.K unemployment data
The Pound is once again on a knife edge this morning ahead of unemployment data due out this morning. Should we see another negative release for the U.K we could be pushed even closer to the 1.10 level following the surprise fall in inflation yesterday.
Following that release the Pound dropped against most major currencies and even I didn’t expect that! As I have been saying for some time now this market really is not one to play around with and the outlook doesn’t look like it will change for the time being.
Interest rate hikes in the U.K appear once again to be drifting away and with that so does the value of the Pound, this time last year most analysts were predicting three rate hikes in 2010 and Sterling to be way into the 1.20s by the end of last year, it nearly got there, however we have had no rate hikes still and may not for some time and the Pound has taken a huge knock again against most currencies.
The only shining light for those with currency to buy is against the Dollar, we are still at great levels as the States appear to also have lots of problems of their own and are also quite a way off of a rate hike.
An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors and the markets move on rumour as well as fact so the mere chance of a hike can shift a currencies value quite rapidly.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
Sterling set for interesting morning with important data releases – money supply, mortgage approvals, net lending and PMI – Euro Unemployment rate following shortly after
This morning promises to be interesting for the Pound as we see a flurry of data releases due out at 09:30am.
We have M4 money supply data, mortgage approvals (perhaps the most important) Net lending and PMI (Purchasing Managers Index).
I often find that when you get a batch of releases all at once they can sometimes counter act each other and this can lead to the markets not being impacted as much a a single release however if they all come out particuarly poorly or extremely positively then we may see large movements for the Pound.
We also see the unemployment rate for Europe at 10:00am which may well guide us as to how the Euro Zone is performing so far in 2011.
If you are buying a property abroad, have business transactions to carry out or need to get money overseas for any other reason and want the best exchange rates, just fill in the form on the right hand side and one of the experienced traders that write on this blog will be in touch shortly.
