Tag Archives: US Dollar

US interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

This evening the Federal Reserve will release their latest interest rate decision. It was 12 months ago to the day when the FED decided to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5% and on the 12th month anniversary many economists believe a hike is inevitable.

If the US do decide to hike interest rates speculators should flock to the US dollar to make profit from their investments and therefore I expect GBPUSD (cable) to fall.

As for GBPEUR exchange rates, EURUSD is the most commonly traded pair and a general trend is that if one currency strengthens then the other weakens. Therefore we could see the pound make some gains against the euro if Chairlady Janet Yellen decides to hike.

Looking ahead to next year, the Supreme Court decision for the UK could put pressure on the pound and therefore exchange rates could fall. For people purchasing a foreign currency next year the safe option is to purchase upfront. 

If you are buying or selling the pound in the upcoming months UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s March deadline to invoke Article50 should have a major impact on the exchange rates you will receive.  Feel free to email me with the pair (GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPAUD) the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

 

Article 50 announcement causes Sterling to fall against all major currencies including Euro and the US Dollar (Tom Holian)

Over the weekend it has been announced by Prime Minster Theresa May that the UK will invoking Article 50 by the end of March.

Rumours have been circling for a while with Foreign Minister Boris Johnson speaking out a fortnight ago and now that we have seen a more official announcement this has caused the Pound to fall against the Euro to its lowest level to buy Euros in 3 years.

As previously predicted in some of my previous articles we could see further pressure on GBPEUR exchange rates as there is still no certainty as to what will happen next in terms of the deal itself.

Theresa May now faces a very difficult task ahead steering through the UK’s economy through an uncertain time whilst trying to maintain positive relations with our European neighbours.

As yet no deal has been done concerning immigration and access to the free market and this won’t happen for a long time to come which is why we have seen confidence in the Pound fall again vs the Euro and the US Dollar.

If you’re in the process of buying a house in Europe and are concerned about what may happen to exchange rates over the next few weeks then it may be worth considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate with a small deposit for a future date.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Having worked in the industry for over 13 years now I am confident not only of being able to offer you competitive exchange rates but to also help with the timings of your transfer.

Feel free to email me directly or fill in the form below and I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates drop once again as hopes of a ‘soft brexit’ fade, so where will the Pound go from here? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is facing increasing pressure at the moment as the impact of the UK’s upcoming exit from the EU is unsettling financial markets.

Sterling exchange rates dropped substantially as soon as it was announced that the UK electorate had voted to leave the EU, with the GBP to USD exchange rate dropping to a 31 year low, and the GBP to EUR exchange rate dropping to a 3 year low along with many other major currency pairs.

There was a slight rebound as a number of particularly positive business surveys within key UK industries showed that a weaker Pound had actually boosted economic output within the UK in it’s new post-brexit-vote environment. That rebound has now been reversed as we edge closer to those 52 week lows, and I think it’s worth noting that cable (GBP/USD) has now dropped back below the key psychological level of 1.30 which may trigger further falls for the pair.

Now that it’s common knowledge that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will likely invoke Article 50 towards the beginning of next year, hopes of a prolonged ‘soft exit’ have dwindled and this is being reflected within currency markets as the Pound weakens pretty much on a daily basis at the moment.

Those with an upcoming currency exchange requirement which involves converting pounds into another major currency, may wish to consider moving on that sooner rather than later as many economists have predicted parity for GBP/EUR, our clients are still comfortably in excess of 10 cents from this level so moving now may be a wise decision come later in the year/next year.

Today’s major news release will be the most recent Fed Reserve Bank Interest Rate decision, and although no change is expected a move by the Fed is likely to create volatile trading conditions which we would usually trade around with our clients, as sensitive news releases such as this one can widen exchange rates and our sole purpose is to obtain great rates for our clients.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling falls against the Euro following UK inflation data (Tom Holian)

UK inflation data published yesterday morning came in under the expectation and this caused the Pound to fall against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

The figures showed a fall and this means we could see a further intervention in monetary policy by the Bank of England this Thursday.

Personally I think we will see no change this month but the comments due to be made by governor of the central bank Mark Carney will be closely watched following the decision.

He has been rather bullish in the last few weeks and has claimed that the cutting of interest rates helped to stabilise the British economy following the vote to leave the European Union.

This morning we see the release of both average earnings and UK unemployment data at 930am.

I think we could see some problems as companies are unlikely to have been hiring as much as usual owing to the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote.

If we see the data come in lower than expected then I think we could see further losses for the Pound against both the Euro and the US Dollar during today’s trading session.

However, all is not necessarily gloom and doom as UK Retail Sales are due out in the morning.

The weather in the UK has seen one of the best summers in years and therefore people are likely to have been spending in the high street.

The combination of the warm weather and the Olympics could see tomorrow’s data come out strong which could help the Pound against all major currencies.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Has Sterling’s recovery against the Euro come to an end? (Tom Holian)

Sterling hit its best level to buy Euros since early August earlier this week but yesterday the recovery for the Pound was stopped in its tracks.

UK manufacturing and production data highlighted the problems that the British economy is facing since the vote to leave the European Union.

The problems for Sterling continued yesterday when the NIESR released its latest GDP estimate for the last three months which showed a fall to 0.3%.

Later today we could see the next trend emerging for Sterling vs the Euro when the European Central Bank meets to unveil its latest monetary policy decision.

With inflation in the Eurozone still struggling and worryingly low this could tempt the ECB to look at a change but I would be very surprised to see anything today.

However, any rhetoric showing signs of a further interest rate cut coming or further Quantitative Easing could see pressure on the single currency.

The ongoing issue for Sterling exchange rates against all major currencies is really when or if Article 50 may be triggered. The uncertainty has been one of the main reasons why the Pound has continued to struggle particularly against the Euro and the US Dollar.

UK Trade Balance data is due to be published tomorrow morning and this could also put pressure on the Pound vs the Euro if the figures come out lower than expected.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling loses momentum as manufacturing data disappoints (Joseph Wright)

Despite the Pound rallying over the past week or so we’ve seen it’s bullish run come to an end today, as the currency has softened by at least half a percent versus both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Economic news out of the UK recently has mostly been coming out considerably better than analysts expectations, and that’s left Sterling sellers with the opportunity to make their conversions at considerably better rates of exchange than would have been available just a couple of weeks ago. Those hoping to capitalise on these improvements may be wise to consider making that move sooner as opposed to later, because as we’ve seen today I’m expecting financial markets to react quickly and negatively to weak economic data out of the UK at the moment due to market sentiments towards Brexit.

Today’s economic update, released by the Office of National Statistics showed that Manufacturing Production contracted by a considerable 0.9% in July, which was disappointing for those hoping the Pound would continue to climb as previous to today’s news release the last set of Manufacturing data we saw (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) was particularly positive.

Moving forward, I expect to see the Pound come under further pressure as despite the recent Services PMI figure posting the biggest gain record (on Monday), we still haven’t seen the Pound test the psychological level of 1.20, and I think after the Pounds recent gains there is likely to be profit taking from market speculators which may drive Sterling’s value down once again.

If you have an upcoming currency exchange to make and would like to discuss it, feel free to get in contact with me (Joseph) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I’ll be happy to discuss timings with you as well as being able to offer award winning exchange rates. If you would like a quote just email me with an outline of your plans and I’ll be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

 

 

Sterling Euro rates break past 1.20 owing to leadership change (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have risen dramatically during this week’s trading vs the Euro with the news that Theresa May will be taking over as Prime Minister as of later today.

The leadership race was previously set to take 9 weeks with May going up against Leadsom. However, Leadsom withdrew earlier this week and this meant May would take over.

The political stability has helped to strengthen the Pound vs the Euro and the US Dollar as it means that confidence has returned to the British economy and therefore Sterling exchange rates.

There is potential for further volatility tomorrow with the UK’s next interest rate decision.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney was very pro-remain and has warned that a vote to leave the European Union could be damaging for the UK.

He has also hinted that the UK could cut interest rates in the near future so any change tomorrow could see Sterling’s gains against the Euro quickly eroded.

However, I think it would be a bit too early to interfere with monetary policy just yet as with the political landscape a bit more certain I think any policy change is unnecessary.

Turning the focus to the Eurozone the Italian banks are struggling at the moment and the ECB will likely have to do something and this could cause the Euro to weaken if the problem is not dealt with swiftly.

Indeed, the total amount that international banks have lent to Italy is as much as €550bn.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

Alternatively call me directly and ask for Tom Holian 0044-1494-787-478.

 

 

Brexit vote results in huge losses for the Pound against the Euro and US Dollar (Tom Holian)

The Brexit vote has caused Sterling to fall by 11 cents against the Euro and 16 cents against the US Dollar as the Pound went into free fall during yesterday’s trading session. This has led to huge demand from clients looking to sell Euros or US Dollars into Sterling.

The vote to Leave the European Union caused a big surprise to financial markets as bookies had given odds of 10-1 on that the UK would vote to Remain just hours before the results came in.

Prime Minister David Cameron has also announced his resignation, which will take place in October, so we have another four months of political uncertainty as well as the economic uncertainty surrounding the European Union issue.

Currency does not like uncertainty and with yesterday’s results this is what caused the Pound to suffer and in my 13 years dealing in the foreign exchange markets I have never seen such huge single day movements for GBPEUR rates and GBPUSD rates during that time.

We could see further struggles for Sterling in the week ahead as the media is likely to hype up the story over the weekend.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded the UK’s credit rating outlook to negative as the uncertainty of the vote is likely to lead to big falls in GDP and cause the UK’s economy to struggle.

The result of the referendum could also see a second independence referendum in Scotland as the vote to stay in the European Union in Scotland was huge.

I expect to see Sterling continue to come under pressure next week so if you’re looking at either selling Euros or indeed any other currency to buy Pounds now is an incredible opportunity to do so.

 

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote.

For a quicker response on Monday morning please email me this weekend with your requirement and a phone number. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Sterling on the rise against the Euro following opinion poll (Tom Holian)

We are now only a few days away from one of the biggest political and economic events in the UK’s history when the UK goes to vote in the EU referendum on Thursday.

Votes should be in by early Friday morning depending how close the voting is and with the most recent YouGov poll showing a marginal lead for the Remain vote at 44% compared to 43% this has caused Sterling to rally against all major currencies including the Euro and the US Dollar.

The vote will be crucial to how Sterling Euro exchange rates will move in the near future but the outcome is currently far too close to call. Therefore, one thing is likely is that we will see big movements for the currency pair between GBPEUR rates.

Personally, I expect to see a Remain vote when the results are announced and I base this on the fact that so many important institutions are backing a Remain vote including the Bank of England, International Monetary Fund and the European Union to name but a few.

I have worked in this industry since 2003 and have been present during the credit crunch, Scottish referendum and various general elections during this period and all have caused big movements for Sterling exchange rates but arguably this event could be even more volatile.

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling and Euro and are worried about the potential risk that the next few days may bring then it may be worth looking at a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP exchange rates open the week flat, will Sterling hold on to it’s recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

With the recent gains made by Sterling exchange rates many may have wondered over the weekend whether they’d missed the boat. Fortunately for those that didn’t take advantage last week, they still have the opportunity of selling their Pounds at surprisingly good levels considering next month the UK public will be voting on it’s political future.

Having hit a 3 month high last week, GBP/EUR is still trading above 1.2900 at the central level and personally I think there could be some short term support at that level as the pair bounced back up above 1.2900 after briefly dropping as low as 1.2893 earlier today. Expect the fears over Greece’s bad debt to help Sterling hold it’s ground although should we hear of a turn in the polls/bookies regarding the EU Referendum next month, I’ll expect GBP to spike downwards against all major currencies.

Earlier in the month GBP/USD, commonly know as cable, hit a 4 month high and since then once again Sterling is more or less holding on to those gains. I think anyone with an upcoming currency requirement involving selling GBP to buy USD should be well aware of how an Interest Rate hike from the Fed will effect the pair, and how likely that hike is likely to occur and when.

Sterling is likely to see weakness in the event of an Interest Rate hike in the US when compared with Sterling, and analysts have currently got an increase in the rate next month at 30% so we shouldn’t rule out those chances. Odd’s are at 60% for September so for GBP sellers, it may be in your best interest to begin organizing your US Dollar purchase sooner as opposed to later.

Major events which could affect GBP exchange rates and potentially erode Sterling’s recent gains consist of Tuesday’s Public Sector Net Borrowing for April, and UK GDP figures on Thursday. Both figures will be held under high scrutiny within the market place and expect big movements should either figure come out far from analysts expectations.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you have to make, and ensure you’re getting the best rates possible with high levels of client security, feel free to get in touch with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joseph on the Sterling desk.