Tag Archives: weakness
The most important issue regarding pound sterling rates at present! How to get the best exchanges rates
The pound had been one of the worst performing currencies of 2013 until a few weeks ago when it bounced back from the very worst levels. The answer to the question of is the worst really over will be evidenced next week in the form of GDP data. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the output or growth in the economy and is a key factor in determining the strength or weakness of sterling.
What strategy should I adopt for buying or selling the pound?
If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds and you are keen to take a risk it may be worth waiting until next Thursday as there is an outside chance you could see much better levels by 2 or 3 cents. If you are not keen to risk then I would tee things up a bit sooner as it is probable the pound may become more expensive. Please note if you are considering any exchanges and would like to run through your options please speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The consensus among commentators seems to be that the UK has avoided the triple dip recession. This would mean that it is likely the pound will strengthen next Thursday. However because this expectation is quite high, if for any reason the data is bad we could see a big fall for the pound. Markets often move ahead of the event too, so it can be argued the pound is stronger lately due to this expectation. It is also true the pound is stronger due to events in Cyprus, money has moved out of Europe and despite all the economic woes for sterling, found its way to the relative safe haven of the UK.
If you are selling pounds to buy another currency then it may be wise to see how the data comes out next Thursday. This is because the pound may strengthen by a cent or so against most currencies. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen so the best way to ensure you don’t lose out unnecessarily is to register an interest with me so I can keep an eye on the movements for you. Rates can move up to one or two cents per day and on big volumes of currency this can become very costly.
If you are weighing up whether or not to sell or buy pounds and hoping for slightly more on the rate, then the outcome of this decision next week is key. You can be made aware of all your options and run through any ideas on what you feel may happen by speaking directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk
The authors of site are specialist currency providers who can offer much better rates than the banks and other sources. We also offer assistance with the timing of your exchanges and providing forecasts. Ultimately no one can tell you exactly what will happen, but our expert knowledge of what drives rates and guidance on the processes involved will ensure you make an informed decision.
Please contact me Jonathan Watson personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information at no cost or obligation.
I look forward to hearing from you and personally assisting you, thank you
Cyprus helps support GBPEUR rates to highest in 30 days – When to buy the Euro (Steve Eakins)
We have been particularly busy this morning due to the news breaking out of Cyprus. Not that the small economy, the third smallest across the Eurozone is receiving a bailout, but that as part of it funding needs to be raised by a bank levy. This bank levy is currently expected to be 6.75% on anything under €100,000 in any personal account held by a Cyprus account and closer to 8% on anything over. It seems that Germany is uncomfortable to pay out a country that they see as a hotspot for money laundering of rich Russians. This current proposal is being voted on today inside the Cyprus Government which could see a deduction to 3%.
It resulted in a run on the banks across Cyprus in a similar way we saw back in 2008 on Northern Rock here in the UK and the concern is this could spread across other European countries causing the house of cards to fall apart. It has in turn weakened the Euro significantly over the weekend making it the best time to buy the euro for over 30 days with the pound, a month high.
So when shall I buy euros?
Well the knee jerk reaction currently is quite attractive, I personally cannot see any spread of contagion in the near future so would be looking sooner rather than later. We also have to respect the UK Budget later this week on Wednesday which could easily put the Pound back on the negative sloop which is the more common route through 2013 with a 8% loss seen at some points against both the dollar and the euro this year.
However as the US markets have not traded on this news I can imagine a further gain for the pound this afternoon. If I needed to buy euros within the next 15 days I would be very much looking at rates today to complete my exchange or to limit my exposure but doing some and employing limit orders and stop orders. For more information on what these contracts are and the other benefits of using a currency broker over your bank contact me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk
This spike in the market has seen quick moving clients that had registered for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS via hse@currencies.co.uk save nearly 3% compared to a week ago or £6,250 on a €200,000 purchase. If you would like to benefit from these notifications register your interest by giving me a call, Steve Eakins on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates SPIKING – Best time to buy in 4 weeks (Steve Eakins)
Over the last few days rates have pushed up for GBPEUR exchange rates, it has been two consecutive big days of gains that present the quick moving clients with an opportunity to buy at a 4 week high. In monetary forms this equates to a saving of £2,600 on a €200,000 in less than 36 hours.
What is the reason for the rally?
Yesterday we saw gains following the news that the UK economy could have avoided a recession which had been priced into the market. This resulted in a rally of nearly 1 cent on the day. Today the market has gained nearly another cent following comments from Mervyn King the current head of the Bank of England when he said “There Is Momentum Behind Recovery That Is Coming.”
Will it last long?
Probably not, these knee jerk reactions don’t normally last long so if you have funds available and need to buy within the next few weeks I would see current levels as an opportunity to buy. I personally don’t believe his comments long term as you only have to look at recent data from the UK to see there is no real recovery. It may be he is talking about a recovery coming this year but I certainly cannot see one within the next few months.
How do I get notified of these spikes?
Well timing trades can save thousands on an exchange. Using a pro-active currency broker will help as they will notify you of these spikes so you can take advantage. Contact me directly if this service is of any interest, Steve Eakins, at hse@currencies.co.uk
Why would I use a broker?
Here I work for a company called Foreign Currency Direct, and comparisons have shown that we can save clients as much as 3% – 6% on currency transfers when compared to rival brokers and the high street banks. Simply put, if we could not save you money we would not be in business. We are an FSA regulated company and have been highlighted as the “Best Exchange Rate Provider” with the “Best Exchange Rates” in Britain by The Sunday Times for three consecutive years and more recently by the Telegraph.
For more information along with possible strategy options on when to trade now and in the future contact me through hse@currencies.co.uk or 01494-787 478
Quick update – HSBC feel Sterling may still get ‘smoked’ Sterling weakness ahead?
I just came across the following article link below regarding the Pound – A little worrying for those looking to buy foreign currency.
If you have a pending transfer to make and want to find out more about how you can secure a rate in advance for just a small deposit fill in the enquiry form on this site and one of our experienced brokers will be more than happy to assist you.
How will the pound fare against these currencies in 2013? AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR Forecasts.
The pound has had a typically uncertain start to 2013 with declines in Services and Construction, but with improvements in Manufacturing. As always these early month releases have affected short term movements against currencies giving well prepared clients opportunities to maximise their rate. This site of course focuses on GBP but when looking at rates on your currency it is important to be aware of global events that may affect the currency you trade. I have chosen AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR because there are many common themes affecting their movements. Sterling doesn’t see too many independent moves in the same way these currencies do and with the global economy the way it is, the moves on these currencies can be unexpected. An awareness of what drives your rate is key to understanding the market and getting a good deal. Whatever your level of interest in the markets always feel free to post a comment below or contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk for information.
I think the big movers for the pound itself this year will stem from the prospects of further QE as well as UK growth prospects. Significant independent GBP moves should only really be affected by these concerns. For the month of January we are unlikely to see QE and henceforth a big drop for the pound looks unlikely. Therefore anyone who can hold out longer before they sell the pound for a currency may find an opportunity in the future. This means that those selling a foreign currency to buy sterling may wish to position themselves to move sooner particularly since current rates are so good.
GBPAUD – Positive data from China and improved global sentiments due to the fiscal cliff are keeping the Aussie strong. 1.60 has been a target for many of my GBPAUD buyers but this rate looks unlikely to be hit anytime soon. Conversely those selling are targeting a 1.50 so we are loosely in the middle of such rates. Current market conditions indicate to me there is more chance of the rate hitting 1.50 before 1.60 due to likelihood the Australian economy will remain strong and the fact the pound looks unlikely to stage the kind of resurgence that would enable 1.60 to be hit. The general improvement in market sentiments due to eurozone stability and resolution of the fiscal cliff back up my claim here but things can change quickly. If you are a buyer or seller of Aussies you can make an enquiry directly with me on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I can keep you posted on developments.
GBPNZD – The Kiwi has strengthened lately as Asian data remains positive. A move towards 2 looks unlikely but we could easily see a change in sentiment down the line. As with the Aussie the current market conditions coupled with a weak pound indicate a move towards 1.90 is more likely than the higher rates. On both currencies sentiments can quickly change so some preparation ahead of needing to make an exchange will help you in achieving the best rate.
GBPCAD – The Canadian Dollar has been boosted from the fiscal cliff deal and improved global sentiments. Now back comfortably below 1.60, this could be a good time for sellers to enter the market. The Canadian economy relies heavily on the US and the indications from the US Federal Reserve QE will end in 2013 also helped the currency. Much like the Aussie and Kiwi I expect the Loonie to be well supported and to only be moved by sharp changes in sentiment. I would be surprised to see us above 1.60 in the short term although the debt ceiling negotiations could provide the kind of spikes we saw late December. If you missed the boat on buying at this time and are waiting for an improvement you could be in luck depending on how long you can hold out and how steady your nerves are.
GBPZAR – The ZAR suffered massively due to uncertainty last year. Political uncertainty is a major turn off for investors and the much lower than expected growth in South Africa due to the uncertainty dented confidence. Nevertheless the South African economy has lots going for it with many mineral resources of interest to the West and East. As with those above it looks more likely the currency has recovered somewhat and a settling of tensions globally has helped the Rand. I think this is the currency the pound is most likely to enjoy strength against simply because it is the weakest overall. Sentiments on the Rand are frayed and it will take time to restore confidence. I would not be surprised to see a move above 14 again but unless there is major uncertainty presented to markets, cannot see it moving significantly higher.
Unfortunately no one has a crystal ball to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. But an awareness of all of the fundamental issues surrounding your currency deal will help you make a decision. We aim to make things as easy and simple for our clients so even if your requirement is just a one off speaking to us could save you thousands. This site and the people behind it have won various awards for our straightforward approach to information for those considering currency transfers. It would be impossible to run trough all the details in one post so if you would like more information on anything to do with an international money transfer (even if it is a one off) please feel free to make contact and we can guide you through the process. We handle bank to bank transfers from 1000 GBP to multi million pound transactions and assure you of the very best rate and service. All the best for 2013, jmw@currencies.co.uk
U.S Federal Reserve announce QE3 and that interest rates will stay low until at least mid 2015
The Dollar has lost strength against most major currencies this evening following the decision from the Fed to announce Quantitative Easing once again leading to a great buying chance for those looking to buy Dollars or indeed Dirhams in the near term.
The Pound also found that sinking feeling against most other majors as it is widely felt that when the U.S sneezes the U.K catches a cold so this does suggest that we may see further QE further down the line for the U.K and that interest rates will not be creeping up for a while – A hike in interest rates is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned as it makes the currency more attractive to investors.
To be kept fully up to date with Sterling exchange rates and for a great analysis of your particular currency needs contact me directly by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be happy to help you.
Pound Sterling Forecast 04.09.12 – 07.09.12 – Still an extremely busy week ahead!
Despite the UK data so far being mixed but overall disappointing for September, ongoing global events are presenting some excellent buying opportunities on many of the more popular currencies we trade. GBPUSD is only a whisker away from a 3 and a half month high, GBPNZD is at a 3 month high, GBPAUD is at a 12 week high and GBPZAR is at a 3 year high!
GBP NEWS – The start of each month sees a snapshot of economic activity with the Purchasing Managers Index Surveys. Monday’s Manufacturing data was an improvement on July but still showed for August according to the survey, the sector shrunk. Yesterday we had Construction post an alarming 3 year low, although an administration error meant tomorrow’s Services data was published ahead of schedule this afternoon. The increase in activity in the Services sector provided some light relief and helped the pound make some small gains in afternoon trading.
So what next for the pound? Well these mixed signals continue to point to the Zig Zag economy Mervyn King referred to earlier this year. The general slowdown we are seeing globally is impacting the UK and anyone banking on sterling making strong gains against any currency should really start preparing for more losses. The economy is literally going backwards and with dark debt clouds whipping up more and more of a storm in Europe, it is difficult at present to see the light at the end of the tunnel. With more QE due at some point in the future it looks like the pound will be set for more losses in the future.
With no Services tomorrow, in the UK, the important data is the Halifax House Price release which could affect short term movements on the pound. With no QE expected Thursday we probably won’t see much affect the pound itself, but with so much focus on the ECB (European Central Bank) those interested in any currency transfers may wish to book something out today or early tomorrow to avoid disappointment.
Is the ECB’s word as good as its bond?
EUR NEWS – After weakening to 1.2860 against sterling over 6 weeks ago, the Euro has found support against a weak pound on the back of improved confidence in the single currency. This has stemmed from Mario Draghi, President of the ECB stating the ECB will do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the Euro. There has been lots of speculation in the last few weeks as to what this will take and the feeling is the ECB will announce some new form of bond buying. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs rose to dangerous levels earlier this year which spooked investors.
DATAWATCH – Tomorrow we have 10 year German Bund Auctions, 10 year Italian Auctions and 5 year Spanish Auctions. To finance day to day spending, governments around the world borrow money on a promise to pay back the money at a certain rate over a period of time. This impacts currency (particularly the Euro at present) because it shows investor appetite for investing in the region. If the bond auctions go badly the rate could fall, if it goes well, the Euro may find favour.
With all eyes on Mario’s actions and announcements Thursday, tomorrow could be a very good day to make preparations for Thursday. I would not be surprised to see movement of at least a cent in either direction on GBPEUR, and personally feel it would be in favour of the Euro.
Mario and the ECB’s decisions could affect movement on a range of currencies including the Kiwi, Aussie and Canadian Dollar. Friday sees a range of Industrial and Manufacturing Production data too.
The posts on this site are a snapshot of the kind of information we provide on a daily basis to our clients who need to make a currency transfer. If you are considering any transfers now or in the future it is well worth getting in touch as we can not only make you aware of all the events surrounding your trade, but also assist with an unbeatable commercial exchange rate.
I am happy to take any questions on any currency transactions personally at jmw@currencies.co.uk or on phone via 01494 787 478. Please note my services are for corporate and private clients looking to move money internationally (from 1000 GBP up to multi million pound transactions) bank to bank and not for travel money or speculative investment purposes.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Why September is a Key month for the Euro!
September promises to be a very busy month with a number of important decisions due on the Euro. For the time being the boat may have sailed on the better Euro rates of the last few weeks, but this could easily change.
Following the Jackson Hole Summit the case for further QE in the US remains, but it is unlikely we will see any too soon. The global economy continues to be pulled from pillar to post with no real clear direction or trend being established.
And the Aussie, Kiwi, Rand and Canadian Dollar continue to suffer presenting some excellent buying opportunities.
Next week a few things to lookout for are:
Purchasing Managers Index Surveys. These surveys reflect business sentiment and provide an early indication on how an economy is performing. These are likely to affect the short term movements on a wide range of currencies. On Monday we have PMI for China which could affect the commodity based currencies AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR. We also have PMI from across the Eurozone, all in all plenty to start the week off!
On Tuesday there is UK PMI for Construction, plus Swiss GDP data. In the afternoon we have a range of US PMI data, which will provide further indication as to US QE decisions.
Early Wednesday we have Australian GDP data, then the Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision (plus more UK PMI, for the Services sector).
And Thursday the Australian Interest Rate decision, the Bank of England Interest Rate decision as well as the European Central Bank decision.
And if you haven’t seen your movement by then on Friday there is various Manufacturing and Industrial Production data for the UK, plus US Unemployment data in the US. There is also a preliminary UK GDP estimate Friday too.
GBPEUR Focus September could be MAKE or BREAK for the Euro
Last week saw further losses on GBPEUR as the edge of the excellent levels passed. PMI Surveys this week could well shape the short term movements although the key events to beware of are as follows:
This Thursday – ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Will Mario and co finally shed some light on their plans to ‘save’ the Euro? August saw a wave of calm sweep over the Euro, is it misplaced?
September 12th – Dutch Elections and German Court Ruling on legality of use of taxpayer funds for bailout funds.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund), ECB and EU Council will also be visiting Greece and Cyprus to discuss ways forward.
The outcome of these meetings and events could well shape the trend on the Euro and this will affect attitudes to risk on other currencies. To be kept up to speed on the latest developments on your rate please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.
GBPEUR is currently at a one month low although I am sure this week we will see it break out of the ranges it seemed trapped in last week.
Don’t get caught out! Rates can move quickly for a variety of reasons. Our specialist service is designed to make you aware of everything important surrounding your trades so you do not miss out.
To be kept up to date with everything affecting your rate please contact me Jonathan on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
This site has helped thousands of people save thousands of pounds and we would be very pleased to hear from and help anyone who has not yet got in touch.
Pound Sterling Forecast – 24.08.12 – How to get the best sterling exchange rates
UK GDP Figures just released showed the Economy shrank less than expected. The revision upward from -0.7 to -0.5% was not wholly unexpected and despite being an improvement is nothing to get too excited about.
I expect the pound will continue to struggle against most currencies and anyone holding out for major improvements in the short term should brace themselves for further losses. The best options for managing currency risk will be different for each situation as each client will have their own specific requirements and limitations with which they have to work to. For a full discussion of what you should be thinking of and how to approach your particular exchange, please contact me Jonathan Watson on 01494 787 478 or jmw@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR – 2 week LOW GBPUSD – 3 month HIGH GBPAUD – 1 month HIGH GBPCAD – 1 month HIGH
GBPNZD – 5 week HIGH GBPZAR – nr 1 Year HIGH EURUSD – 7 week LOW
GBPEUR
The Euro has clearly found some favour in recent weeks as US QE expectations weigh on EURUSD, optimism weighs on a Spanish bailout and Greece appears to be offered more time. A fall in borrowing costs of Italy and Spain too has helped ease the pressure of the last few weeks. 1.30 for the time being looks out of the questions and anyone holding out for this would do well to remember we were at 1.1978 at the turn of the year and the highest the rate has been is 1.2880, and that was over a month ago.
The recent change in mood surrounding the Euro may well turn out to be misplaced down the line, but for the time being faith has returned for the Euro and the pound, which is still in a recession looks unable to capitalise.
GBPUSD
As I have been expecting GBPUSD continues to ebb higher and we are currently at a 3 month high. I would not rule out the 1.60 rate in the coming weeks and months particularly if there is more QE in the US. QE is however not quite the dirty word it once was on both sides of the Atlantic and consequently the market may have already priced this in. Any further gains on this pair may be hampered by the general poor state of the pound.
GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPZAR
A surprise fall in Japanese Imports and Chinese warnings over their economic growth caused a wobble on the Aussie proving it is not immune to the general slowdown engulfing the rest of the world.
This has had a knock on effect on the Kiwi, Cad and Rand, presenting some excellent buying opportunities (see above).
For a free, no obligation full discussion of your options and more detailed forecast please speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk
It is always worth a second opinion and I have never had any trouble getting my clients the very best rate.
Thank you,
Jonathan
