Tag Archives: weakness

Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)

It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.

Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.

In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.

My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…

The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.

If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.

If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.

What will move your rate this December?

Regular readers might by now becoming familiar with the two key events for December, that is the European Central Bank meeting this Thursday and the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 18th December. These two events carry significant weight on the markets and could easily change the current forecasts on a number of currencies. Whilst clearly not UK based events they will have a big impact on sterling exchange rates as investors move funds in and out of the Euro, USD and others, and then into and out of sterling. Let us remind ourselves what moves an exchange rate, it is the buying and selling of said currency. That demand is in the main triggered by corporate investors looking to capitalise or speculate on the currency markets, basically investing money to make money. Examples include hedge funds, pension funds and banks all seeking to invest funds to turn a profit. Understanding their attitudes to the market and their investing brains can help you too to navigate the markets and not get caught out!

The pound is one of the world’s leading currencies and in any currency portfolio will make up a reasonable share since it represents the wholly independent Bank of England and the UK is politically and economically seen as a safe bet. With the UK on a path to raising interest rates at some point in the future the UK represents a good investment opportunity and this explains some of the pounds gains this year. The outlook is therefore quite favourable for the UK and the pound but because much of this good news is priced in, we could easily see events take a turn in the future, particularly if the UK data does not live up to expectation.

If you have a transfer to consider involving the pound the next few weeks could be critical to determining what you actually receive. Understanding the market and everything going in will really help you to make an informed choice about what is the best way forward. If you have a transfer to consider and would like to receive some expert help and insight on the currency markets and all of your options please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling flops following inflation drop off – Pound finishes the day down against all major currencies (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has been performing about as well as the England rugby team over the past few weeks and I am afraid that trend has continued today.

Inflation figures released this morning led to further Sterling weakness and it seems like the chances of any interest rate hike in the U.K have been pushed back even further once again.

Interest rate hikes or even the mere speculation of an interest rate hike can be very positive for a currency and the fact that this has effectively kicked the ball down the road has now led to Sterling dropping off considerably.

I am still of the opinion that this is a minor blip for Sterling exchange rates and that we may see a Sterling fight back in the near future however I would now suggest that any pending currency exchange you need to make is approached with caution and it may be sensible to look at exchanging a small chunk or even half of your requirement fairly soon to remove a little of the risk.

Tomorrow morning we have U.K unemployment figures and average earnings figures released at 09:30am. These are extremely important again for the U.K and will have further impact on what the Bank of England do next.

Expectations are for a small rise in average earnings which may give the Pound a little strength back, unemployment figures are expected to remain at 5.5% so any figure that differs from this may cause us another volatile morning of trading.

We assist with not only getting you the very best of market information but for those that are not aware we can actually save you money on the exchange rates when you come to booking out a transfer too. The company all of the writers of this site work for has won numerous awards for rates of exchange and customer service and we would love to add you to our book of over 50,000 clients.

If you were planning on using a bank or already have a currency brokerage lined up then it would be mad not to email me for a quote and to see how I can help you. You can contact me (Daniel Wright) the chief editor of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact  number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Next week is a very busy week for sterling exchange rates!

If you need to buy or sell the pound and are looking for a bit more for you money then next week could offer up some opportunities with plenty of economic data to move the market. With pound sterling exchange rates having taken a noted diversion south from previous high expectations, investors are keenly awaiting the next round of economic data to identify the next trend lines. To summarise I believe sterling is likely to fall on Tuesday before making a recovery on Wednesday and then falling again on Friday, let me explain why!

The Pound next week

Tuesday’s Inflation data will I believe cause the pound to fall owing to lower Oil prices and other factors having negatively impacted the Inflation numbers. Sterling is quite susceptible to these numbers since it is a key determinant in when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. Wednesday is UK Unemployment data which I believe will help the pound to rise as this data has been one of the most encouraging aspects of the UK economy in the last couple of years. Moving to Friday there is some very important Eurozone economic data which will I believe lead to Euro strength weakening the pound in the process.


The pound remains at elevated levels as investors still hold hope of a UK interest rate rise in the future yet this prospect has diminished greatly in the last few weeks. Further falls seem likely but there will be spikes to take advantage of! If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and have a particular target level in mind please let me know by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk, I can then monitor the market and provide information on how to achieve your rate.

The Euro next week

The important Eurozone news is Wednesday with Industrial and Manufacturing data. The corresponding data from Germany on Wednesday this week actually caused the Euro to weaken since it showed a surprise fall in the amount of activity in this ever so important aspect of the German economy. Fast forward to Friday next week and we have the very important Eurozone Inflation data which I believe could be positive for the Euro as it shows an improvement in the Eurozone economy and helps the Euro to strengthen.


The Euro’s period of consolidation has levelled off in the last week or so as fresh concerns over the Eurozone economy come back into focus. The reports have quite frankly been rather mixed from Europe and the GBPEUR and EURUSD rates have mainly been driven by goings on in the UK and the States. With the Federal Reserve appearing to have stepped back plans to raise interest rates, the USD has been sold off which has favoured the Euro. All in all I think if you need to sell Euros for sterling taking advantage of the current spike is worthwhile. To get the latest updates on the Euro to sterling exchange rate and receive important information on the market please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

The USD next week

The most important economic data next week for the USD focuses on Inflation data towards the end of the week. I believe the main driver on the dollar will continue to be the prospect of when they will raise interest rates and this could easily slip into next year if Inflation is not an issue in the US. Movements on the USD are important because they will impact movements on the Euro and sterling, understanding what is happening here could help you to make a decision on your currency pairing.

The AUD, NZD and CAD next week!

These currencies remain susceptible to the recent trends in commodity currencies which has lately been positive. With Oil rising in value and the Federal Reserve holding off their plans to raise interest rates these currencies are enjoying a spike. I believe they could surge even further against the pound depending on next weeks data, here are some of the key points to look out for!

AUD – I think Thursday’s Unemployment data is the big one to watch and some reports suggest this could be a negative one! With the Australian economy coming under lots of pressure jobs are suffering and this could present some opportunities.

NZD – There isn’t too much important data next week for the Kiwi but I expect sentiments over the raising of the Federal Reserve Interest rate to affect attitudes towards the currency.

CAD – The rising oil price is a big factor in the market and we have already seen that causing the CAD to strengthen. Next week we have the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaking which may well lead to some spikes on the CAD as he seems likely to be impressed by the recent upturn following the improvements in the Oil price. I think therefore if you need to buy CAD then moving sooner rather than later is going to be the best idea.

Understanding all the important factors driving your exchange rate is key to getting the best deal and whilst I cannot tell you exactly what will happen I am confident I can offer something useful. For more information on all the events driving your exchange rate which may lead to improvements please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I am very confident I can help with a better exchange rate than the banks and some insight into the market to help you make an informed decision.

Thank you,



Sterling drops against all majors in a poor final weekly session for the Pound – Will this last? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound ended the week down against all majors in a week where very little economic data was actually released for the major economies.

In my opinion this is just a slight blip and presents a fantastic window of opportunity for anyone looking to sell Euros, Dollars, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars or any other major currency to buy Sterling.

Betting on interest rate hikes for the U.K has indeed been put back and yesterday BOE Governor Mark Carney did warn on a potential house price crash due to the buy to let market, but the economy is still performing pretty well compared to many others and with the rugby world cup currently giving the U.K economy a shot in the arm.

With this in mind I would expect retail sales figures to rise over the coming months and if the U.S do move forward with their rate hike in the next few months then speculation will be rife on the U.K following suit and Sterling may well get a boost from this.

My personal opinion on what to do in a market like this is to make good use of limit orders. A limit order is basically where you can place an order into the market to buy currency at a specific rate of exchange and should that level become achievable, even for a few seconds at any point (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) then your currency is bought out automatically for you.

The beauty of the order is that it can be cancelled or amended at any point as long as they have not been filled and there are no extra costs to use them.

If you feel that we could be of great use to you in terms of helping with an upcoming exchange or you would like more information on a limit order then you are more than welcome to contact me directly.

We welcome all new clients and can not only offer different contract types but we can also get extremely good rates of exchange.

All you need to do to get further information is to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with your personally.

All eyes on the Federal Reserve…

The big news on exchange rates is the Federal Reserve Minutes due this evening. This is the latest views on just how the American policy makers views the shape of the global and domestic economy plus to what extent the world should be gearing itself up for the US to raise interest rates. This is important stuff because US economic policy has a great impact not just on the US Dollar but also other currencies which in turn can impact sterling exchange rates.

In the end the US is bound to raise their interest rate at some point in the future, the main question is one of timing. I am seeing more and more reports that expect the US will hike their interest rate next month although the recent news from China plus concerns in the Eurozone might still weigh on confidence. This latest report from the US will be very interesting as a guide as to when we can expect the US to raise their rate.

Most commentators expect the raising of the rate to lead to USD strength but I myself am a bit more sceptical. I don’t think it is a given that the USD will strengthen particularly if it is widely expected that they will raise interest rates. We might even see some unwinding of positions and USD weakness if they raise rates as investors feel more confident about improvements in the global economy.

Understanding the market is key to making an informed choice on exchange rates so please speak to me Jonathan to learn more about everything going on that might impact your exchange rate.

What can you do on pound sterling exchange rates this week?

Sterling is performing well as UK GDP pointed to further improvements in the UK economy and we get back to pre-crisis levels. The unbalanced recovery is a concern and it appears unlikely the pound will just keep rising!

With the uncertainty surrounding Greece now removed from the market attention has shifted to wider concerns on interest rates and economic recovery. Personally I cannot see the UK raising interest rates any time soon but the pound appears likely to reach to the data as it has done in the last week.

I think it is really important to understand your options when buying currency with us so here is the information!

1 – Store currency safely in a client account. You don’t need a foreign bank account to buy foreign exchange with us! You can buy Euros and we can keep them here until you need them sending out perfect for business or overseas property investors who don’t yet have a foreign bank account. You can split payments too. eg buy 200k euros and send out 20k euros for deposit leaving remainder here until a foreign bank is open or you need sending out. This means you can buy whilst rates are good not just when you need the currency or have opened a foreign bank account.

2 – We can offer a forward contract to fix today’s rates for up to one year in advance useful for business and anyone buying a large volume of currency. You pay a deposit and choose how far forward. Eg you could fix 300k euros for 3 months and draw it down after 8 weeks if you needed them earlier. Again you don’t need a foreign bank account open to buy with us and can buy or lock in to a price whilst rates are good.

3 – Limit Order’s target a rate you wish to buy currency at in the future. eg 1.60 on GBPUSD. You give us a firm order and we place it into the market. Once the rate is achievable we buy at your desired rate.

If you need to buy or sell the pound understanding all of your options and what is going on in the market is the best way to minimise your exposure. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. Just email a quick outline of your position and your situation and I can hopefully offer some useful information to help you get a better deal.

I look forward to hearing from you!


Why the pound can only strengthen from here

When trying to determine the exchange rate forecast there are various indicators to consider which can help us to work out the ultimately impossible to answer question ‘what will happen next on exchange rates’. My favourite indicator to look at is the words and comments of the central bankers and their teams to see what kind of language they are adopting. The Bank of England today confirmed that they felt the time for an interest rate rise is moving forward and as such sterling is highly likely to strengthen in the future.

One of the main reasons the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold this month is the fears over Greece. That is not to say that removing Greece from the equation would have led to an interest rate rise but that it was a factor preventing most members from looking at the economic situation of the UK. With Greece seemingly dealt with now market attention has and will continue to look more at the economic data and see to what extent it corresponds to the Bank’s own language on raising interest rates.

Why do interest rates strengthen a currency?

Raising Interest rates by a central bank strengthens the currency concerned and the mere prospect of that event happening in the future will serve to increase the value of the currency concerned. When considering a large currency purchase and trying to understand which direction your exchange rate will take, working out what drives the exchange rate will be of key importance to understand what might happen.

Therefore if UK economic data keeps showing the UK economy is growing, creating jobs and people are spending money the Bank of England will be more likely to raise the base rate which should strengthen the pound.

The pound has strengthened and is currently enjoying multi-year highs against the Euro, Australian dollar, Rand, Canadian dollar, Kiwi dollar and the Swedish Kroner. If you need to buy the pound then you might wish to make some plans sooner rather than later. If you are business getting paid in Euros or an overseas property investor looking to repatriate funds and buy in the UK our services might really be up your street.

If you are considering a large volume currency purchase why not get in touch to see if we can offer some assistance with your exchange? Alongside friendly and knowledgeable customer service you can check your current exchange rate to see if you really are getting the best deal.

My name is Jonathan and I have been working as a currency specialist for over 5 years. I like to think I am approachable and can answer any questions you might have not just on the markets but also our services!

Please feel free to drop me an email on jmw@currencies.co.uk and I really do look forward to hearing from you :)

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk


To what extent will sterling recover in the coming weeks?

Sterling is down against all currencies on political uncertainty arising from the most uncertain General Election in decades. The Tories and Labour are neck and neck fighting to gain any seats to reduce their reliance on other parties in coalition. Just what can we expect for the pound in the next 24 hours and weeks? It looks like sterling is going to fall further whoever gets into power!

Tory Majority – Sterling Positive. As plans on the economy to keep on the current course should help investor confidence surrounding the pound. Although the Tories have pledged a referendum on Europe which could damage business confidence for the coming months and in the future.

Tory and Lib Coalition – Sterling Positive. The Current partnership has reduced Unemployment and is currently in charge of a growing economy.

Tory, Lib, UKIP – Mildly Sterling Positive. Increaeses the chances of an EU Referendum being held sooner than expected which could be GBP negative.

Labour Majority – Sterling Negative. The increased spending plans are unlikely to boost confidence in sterling and fears over the mismanagement of the economy would be rife.

Labour Lib Coalition – Mildly Sterling Negative. The Liberal Influence may be viewed positively by markets.

Labour SNP Coalition – Strongly Sterling Negative. The SNP are likely to seek another referendum on the Union which they are more likely to win than before. The splitting up of the Union could be very worrying for investors seeking certainty on the outlook of the UK.

In short there are many outcomes that may affect your price! To be kept up to date with all the potential outcomes and learn what happens please contact jmw@currencies.co.uk