Tag Archives: weakness
Well folks it is that time of year when we reflect on the year so far and look to next year. As the site suggest we make forecasts and the forecast for sterling in 2014 would have to be positive. What are the possible pitfalls however and against which currencies will see the most gains? And what can you do to maximise your deals with this knowledge?
Watch the US – where is market sentiment?
The UK is leading the pack with the highest growth rates amongst European economies. The US is growing faster but their QE programme is without doubt fuelling these increases. At some point the US will have to turn off the QE taps and there will be a very strong market reaction not just on the US dollar but on the euro, pound almost every other currency.
Market Sentiment is a key determinant of the value of sterling. If investors are confident in the global economic outlook the pound should do well as the UK relies heavily on trade from overseas and the services sector which makes up a large part of our economy, relies on international trade.
The pound is likely to do well in 2014 as the global economic outlook improves and the UK recovery remains on track. Of course there are many pitfalls ahead and so the right type of contract is key. A forward contract is the perfect way to lock in your rate for the future without exposing yourself. If you are unsure about how this works or would like any information on the currency markets it really is worth your while speaking to us. Please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org
Pitfalls, highs and lows
I expect the EU referendum and Eurozone debt crisis will be key factors that could affect sterling rates in 2014. The Aussie looks likely to be on the back foot as does the rand so I think sterling will push higher against these currencies. Whilst the early part of the year should see GBPUSD at similair levels, the prospect of QE tapering means GBPUSD should drop to the kind of levels we saw earlier this year. Although if you ask me we are a very long away away from the US economy being ready to give up its QE addiction.
I do hope you have found this information useful and look forward to hearing from you if you would like to learn more about our excellent rates, informative forecasts and friendly helpful service.
GBPZAR 5 year high, GBPAUD and GBPCAD 4 year highs, GBPUSD at 2 1/2 year high and GBPEUR over 1.20…
Sterling is at truly exceptional levels against most currencies as the UK’s recovery rakes hold and the UK sets itself apart from other leading economies by appearing to be likely to be one of the first leading economies to be raising interest rates. Whilst the United States are debating when to stop QE, the UK have not done any QE for the last year. The ECB are looking at possibly negative interest rates and the Bank of Canada is no longer looking to tighten policy. Overnight we learnt that GDP in Australia was weaker than expected, again a sign of another leading economy weakening whilst the UK has been performing well.
With the often crazy Christmas period fast approaching and changes in banking days there is a lot to be said for wrapping up a transfer like a present. The recent spike on exchanges rates has been a great gift to you and now could be an excellent time to either buy your currency or lock into a forward contract to minimise any losses. You can then remove the stress of the transfer and focus on the more important things at this time of year!
If you have a pending transfer we offer a specialist service to assist you in securing the most from the market. For more information at no cost or obligation please do feel free to get in touch. I am a specialist currency broker and my job is to assist private clients and businesses in managing their exposure to the currency markets, ensuring payments are made quickly and safely at the very best rates.
Please feel free to contact me Jonathan on email@example.com or call +44 1494 787 478 and ask to speak to me.
The current outlook for the pound is now very much positive with the pound posting some important gains against many different currencies. Of note is GBPCAD, GBPNZD, GBPAUD which are all posting very strong rates well above the the recent averages. With such strong moves in a short period of time it is highly likely there will be lots of profit taking which will pull things back down, this could be a very good opportunity for anyone buying sterling to enter the market.
Positive GDP this morning has cemented sterling’s position against most currencies and with central banks globally threatening looser policy, it is only really the Bank of England which appears to be on a track to tightening policy. This of course could be years away but with other banks looking at more accommodative measures the pound is standing out and it is likely will strengthen further.
The ECB are looking at possible negative deposit rates, the RBA is actively seeking a much weaker currency and the Fed is largely committed to continuing the QE programme until the economic conditions improve of which we have seen not much hope so far.
If you are buying or selling the pound an awareness of the latest trends and themes is key to securing the best rates. For more information on what is driving your rate and assistance with the very best rates of exchange please contact the author directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Just when we all thought the ECB was far too cautious to make a bold policy move, it cuts the base rate across the Eurozone by 0.25% to 0.25%. This has weakened the Euro pushing EURUSD down to 1.33 yesterday and GBPEUR up to 1.2045 at the high.
Pound sterling rates were improved on by this news as funds found their way to the pound keeping GBPUSD in familiar ranges. This afternoon is a very important release for the US with Non-Farm payroll employment data. It bears more significance following last month’s shutdown as this may have impacted on Employment. The likelihood would be a bad number equalling USD weakness. This could cause euro strength in the afternoon as dollars are moved to the Eurozone.
However as the last few releases show ‘likelihood’ does not always mean much. The majority expected the Fed to taper back in September – they didn’t. The majority expected the US budget impasse last month to be solved by the deadline – it wasn’t. Few really expected the ECB to cut rates yesterday – it was. Therefore it is not unreasonable to expect that the payroll report could be better than expected and cause some USD strength. This may lead to GBP strength too as it shows the shutdown last month was not as bad as expected. It was such sentiments (the shutdown not having such a bad effect on the UK) which helped sterling to climb this week on the services PMI.
Making predictions on currency is no easy task. But giving yourself an advantage by exploring all your options is fairly easy. all you need to do is write an email (preferably with a phone number) outlining your position and we can offer our opinion on everything to beware of. We cannot tell you what to do but can highlight the news and tell you what is driving your price. We offer a professional and friendly service on the markets plus much better rates than banks and other sources of currency.
For more information please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com
Pound Sterling weakness following poor Manufacturing, Trade balance and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures
The Pound has taken a minor tumble today following much worse than expected manufacturing data, trade balance data and ever so slightly worse than previous GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures.
Sterling had been really rocking and rolling over the past month or so with economic data being extremely positive in almost all aspects of the U.k economy however is this the start of things not turning around but slowing down slightly?
It certainly has put a minor grey cloud over the feel good factor that had come into the U.K and had been helping the Pound gain ground on all major currencies.
This evening we have two more possible issues that may affect global attitude to risk so could actually effect the strength of all major currencies. Firstly at 19:00pm we have the FOMC minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting in the States which may give an insight into why tapering of QE did not happen and could give a clue as to when it may happen in America.
later on at 20:00pm we have President Obama speaking who may give us an update on the latest with the U.S Government which also may lead to market volatility.
If you have a pending currency transaction to carry out and you wish to receive the very best rates of exchange for it along with a high level of customer service then feel free to email me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to help you.
Well once again it is politicians causing uncertainty on exchange rates! Amazing really that in 2013 we still have politicians acting quite frankly like babies! In the US the budget impasse and government shutdown has caused a sell off on the dollar whilst in Italy we are due to have a vote of no confidence in the ruling coalition which has weakened the Euro. Berlusconi is still exerting pressure on the government and all the while this continues, urgent reforms to the Italian economy are missed.
I say calm before storm because these issues taken alone whilst significant are not disastrous. What they may pave the way for however could be and as we know nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates. Careful preparation in advance of such uncertainty is often the best course of action, leaving everything until the last minute can prove costly.
Will sterling remain strong? Today and this week is key for shaping the next few week’s movements on GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD and many more. Whilst the pound has been trading at excellent levels due to better economic data, it is also being seen as a temporary haven due to the current background of bad news and uncertainty over the US and Euro.
US Shutdown Many have suggested that the Republicans are strengthening their negotiating position by allowing the shutdown so that they are taken more seriously ahead of the all important Debt ceiling deadline on the 17th October. 17th? Ah yes that was the date last month when the Fed unexpectedly kept QE on hold and the USD weakened by 3 cents. For now it would appear markets are fairly relaxed but as this deadline approaches we are bound to see more USD weakness, the flipside of course is that any negotiation will pave the way for a strengthening of the USD and hopefully an agreement for the debt ceiling too.
Important Economic data this week! This week remains a very important one for sterling, will the latest run of data remain favourable? Yesterday’s Manufacturing was not as good as expected and today’s Construction and tomorrow’s Services data will be closely watched for signs the recovery is consistent. Today we have the ECB banking decision in Paris and tomorrow the Bank of England meeting.
All in all sterling should remain well supported but it is likely to be overseas developments which provide the biggest catalyst on rates. If you are considering a currency deal we can offer assistance with the timing of your exchange plus a commercial exchange rate.
There are some important events on the horizon which are likely to move rates so some careful preparation may prove prudent. Please contact me Jonathan on email@example.com for more information.