Tag Archives: weakness
Today has been a very quiet day on the market for sterling exchange rates as we saw a slight decline against the Euro but we have seen gains against the AUD & NZD.
Tomorrow sees a raft of data released including economic sentiment figures and consumer confidence numbers in the Eurozone alongside retail sales figures for Italy and unemployment data for Spain. The big news though is likely to be the first revision of UK Gross Domestic Product (Growth figures for the economy) which, if revised up could give the pound a big boost and represent some excellent opportunities for those clients looking to transfer funds internationally. Tuesday afternoon sees the focus move across the Pond to the States with their latest consumer confidence figures being possibly the most notable data set. If you have not traded by close of trading in the evening latest UK consumer confidence figures are set to be announced which will give a good indication as to how UK consumers view the economy and any positive figures here could also contribute to the pound gaining on Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday eyes will move over to data from Europe and the US. If there is a strong GDP number from the UK tomorrow and data from other economies are not so favourable Wednesday could be a very good day for the pound. We have German retail sales and unemployment figures, Spanish GDP figures and probably most notably, the latest set of Eurozone inflation data. Inflation has been one of the main factors influencing the Euro recently as there is a large amount of concern that the single currency economy could fall into deflation which could have lasting pressure on their economy. So, should these figures show another drop it could weaken the EUR and lead to more calls for the European Central Bank to act before it is too late hopefully resulting in a spike for GBP/EUR.
Wednesday afternoon we have US GDP figures which, as per the UK’s are likely to be crucial for USD exchange rates but following this we also have US interest rate decision where rates are expected to remain on hold at the record low of 0.25% and another $10bn being reduced from their bond buying scheme as this continues to taper down. Any change from these expected figures could cause volatility.
So the first part of the week is due to be fairly busy with what will I am sure create good buying opportunities regardless of the currency you require purchasing. I always recommend that clients act on spikes in the market to make your funds go as far as possible. We have different contract options which can give you the peace of mind in knowing exactly how far your funds are going. If you would like more information on the currency service I can provide then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at firstname.lastname@example.org
For information on what is due out in the latter part of the week please continue to check out our site.
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at email@example.com
The pound has dipped this morning despite a raft of good economic data showing improvements in government borrowing and falling budget deficit. There had been some high expectations of seeing the pound move higher due to a more hawkish outlook by the Bank of England but this failed to materialise. As one of my clients said to me ‘you can’t even trust the Bank of England’ nowadays…
This was in reference to their commitment to consider raising interest rates if the Unemployment rate dipped below 7%. This particular caveat was of course met recently causing the pound to spike but for now the BoE will not be raising interest rates, it would simply cause more problems.
If you are expecting the pound to just keep rising you could therefore be very disappointed as we need to see some really good data to warrant such a spike. I find the best way to maximise your return on your currency exchange is to set realistic targets and limits. If you would like some assistance in the execution and planning of your transfers please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org, even if your transfer is just a once off, we can help get you the most for your money.
For those looking to buy or sell Canadian Dollars I read an interesting report surrounding Canada this morning.
Nouriel Roubini (or Dr Doom as he is known) the man that predicted the big financial market crash before it happened has recently commented that he feels that the Canadian Dollar still needs to weaken by 10% to maintain the Manufacturing sector for the North American Country, this could be achieved by some aggressive easing measures in the near future.
of course whether we actually see something like this happen is actually completely in the hands of the Bank of Canada and not this widely respected economist, however due to the fact that the markets do move on speculation as well as fact this could mean that the Canadian Dollar may be in for a rocky couple of weeks.
At present the GBP-CAD rate is already almost 30 cents better than it had been a year or so ago so those looking to buy Canadian Dollars must already have a smile on their faces – there is a chance that they may even get a little more for their money in the coming weeks.
If you are looking to buy or sell Canadian Dollars in the coming days, weeks or indeed months then it is prudent to have an efficient and proactive currency broker on your side and I can help you with this personally.
The brokerage I work for has won numerous awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so I would be confident I could better any deal you currently receive from your bank or currency broker, feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly by email on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to help you personally.
Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.
Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.
Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.
Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.
Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!
This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
Mark Carney and the Bank of England have raised UK growth forecasts helping sterling to gain against a number of currencies. At the same time they have underlined interest rates will be on hold for a long period of time which limits just how much higher we can expect sterling to rise in the coming weeks and months.
If you have a sterling transfer to consider in the coming weeks and months making some plans now at these levels may be a sensible move.
In other news the new Federal Reserve Chairmen Janet Yellen underlined Quantitative Easing in the US is likely to continue until there are significant improvements in the jobs market. And overnight Chinese economic data was much stronger than expected presenting what I believe is a very good opportunity for anyone selling Australian dollars or South African Rand to buy GBP.
I am available to assist in the planning and execution of any international money transfers you need to make (including bringing funds back to the UK or Europe). Unfortunately no one can tell you exactly what will happen on exchange rates but having won awards for our service and rates, we are extremely well placed to offer expertise in managing your currency exposure.
For a breakdown of strategies and options on your particular exchange please call me Jonathan in UK office hours on 01494 787 478 or if you prefer email a quick outline of your position to email@example.com
Next Wednesday is a key date for anyone with an interest in sterling. The Bank of England will announce its QIR or Quarterly Inflation Report which will provide insight into just how the pound will perform for the next few sessions. Whether you are buying or selling sterling this release is likely to create some movement on the markets which will alter the value of your currency purchase.
I am of the opinion some sterling weakness is likely and it is for a reason I have been highlighting for much of 2014. That is the gulf between what the Bank of England is saying about interest rates and what the market has priced in.
80% of currency transactions are speculative. The reason we see movement on exchange rates is indicative of what the market thinks or feels may happen. Since Mark Carney took office the pound has performed very well as the UK economy has improved. By tying Unemployment to the raising of interest rates focus has been very much on a UK interest rate hike. And perfectly legitimately the market has over bought sterling in anticipation of UK interest rates being raised sooner. If you look at the language of Mark Carney and the Bank of England however any possible rate hike is much further ahead than the market speculators are guessing.
Therefore I think despite the improvements in the UK economy warranting increased confidence, these high expectations surrounding sterling may now be misplaced and the risk to the downside has increased. Tomorrow we have some Industrial and Manufacturing data which last month caused sterling to weaken. We also have Trade Balance data tomorrow which we know is one of the major negatives surrounding sterling and the UK economy.
The outlook therefore for sterling has changed and just like the market has been subtly amending its positions anyone considering an international money transfer involving sterling too, should take note.
We are specialist currency brokers who offer market insight and commentary alongside award winning exchange rates. if you have a transaction to consider, small differences in your rate can make a huge impact on the amount of currency you receive.
For further information please contact the author directly on firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with Jonathan.