Tag Archives: weakness

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

To what extent will sterling recover in the coming weeks?

Sterling is down against all currencies on political uncertainty arising from the most uncertain General Election in decades. The Tories and Labour are neck and neck fighting to gain any seats to reduce their reliance on other parties in coalition. Just what can we expect for the pound in the next 24 hours and weeks? It looks like sterling is going to fall further whoever gets into power!

Tory Majority – Sterling Positive. As plans on the economy to keep on the current course should help investor confidence surrounding the pound. Although the Tories have pledged a referendum on Europe which could damage business confidence for the coming months and in the future.

Tory and Lib Coalition – Sterling Positive. The Current partnership has reduced Unemployment and is currently in charge of a growing economy.

Tory, Lib, UKIP – Mildly Sterling Positive. Increaeses the chances of an EU Referendum being held sooner than expected which could be GBP negative.

Labour Majority – Sterling Negative. The increased spending plans are unlikely to boost confidence in sterling and fears over the mismanagement of the economy would be rife.

Labour Lib Coalition – Mildly Sterling Negative. The Liberal Influence may be viewed positively by markets.

Labour SNP Coalition – Strongly Sterling Negative. The SNP are likely to seek another referendum on the Union which they are more likely to win than before. The splitting up of the Union could be very worrying for investors seeking certainty on the outlook of the UK.

In short there are many outcomes that may affect your price! To be kept up to date with all the potential outcomes and learn what happens please contact jmw@currencies.co.uk

Tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll could be more important than the rate decisions today!

US ~Non Farm Payroll data is due tomorrow which could be a big market mover as it is the first one since the US stopped their QE programme. Today’s meeting with Mario Draghi might also be very interesting and should be a market mover, the least interesting thing is probably the UK’s Bank of England decision which is not expected to yield anything new.

How can you make a decision on when is the right time to enter the market if you don’t know what is happening? The idea of this blog is to provide information on just where rates are headed and make sure you get the best price when you do decide to enter the market. If you have a transaction that you need to consider why not get in touch with our specialist team to find out more about moving money internationally at the very best rates.

Sterling has done really well this year as the UK economy improves and investors position themselves for the UK to raise interest rates. Next year we would expect the UK elections to move the market, the increased uncertainty surrounding the political situation in the UK is bound to cause ripples on exchange rates.

When considering making a currency exchange understanding what is driving the exchange rate is vital to getting the most from the market.  Please contact  Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a quick overview of your position and to learn more about getting the best rates.

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

Sterling could be in for a very tough Winter…

Sterling has had a truly remarkable year making firm gains against pretty much all currencies and presenting some of the best rates to buy a foreign currency with in years. GBPUSD hit a 5 year high, GBPEUR has hit a two year high (and not far off a 6 year high!) and GBPNZD and GBPAUD are also both at multi year highs… Clearly sterling is faring well but this now begs the question will it continue?

October is looking like a tough month for the pound  with economic releases from September’s data likely to be poor owing to lower business and consumer confidence due to the Scottish referendum. I feel this is likely to feed into the rest of the year and with it interest rate hike expectations (currently expected in April) liable to be pushed back further. Economic growth in the UK is currently running at 0.8% and with house prices not rising as fast as previously I think the need to raise rates will dampen in Q4.

Tomorrow is some very important Eurozone news on Inflation which will be indicative of how much QE we can expect Thursday from the ECB. With so much volatility surrounding this release making some careful plans ready to trade on the news seems sensible.

I couldn’t possibly fit everything important in one post, would you read the whole article anyway? So if you need to consider a currency exchange and wish for further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a foreign exchange dealer and we focus on a personal proactive service to help you get the most from the market. Please contact me for more information regarding your situation.

Will sterling continue to rise

The pound remains at elevated levels and it would appear it shall continue to do so. Expectations of Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone next month are keeping the Euro weak and following the dollar’s recent surge investor appetite for favourite the safe haven looks set to remain cooled for the time being.

The pound was looking in serious danger on the back of a possible Yes vote in the referendum but these fears have now cooled with the No vote. There are however significant reasons for concern for GBP weakness down the line with the UK election and the possibility of the EU referendum to follow. These topics could make the Scottish referendum look like a Parish Councillors meeting by comparison…

All in all the news is generally very positive for the pound at present but further gains in the absence of something ‘new’ to impress investors look limited. If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling capitalising on these extremely impressive levels might be the best course of action. To be notified of any impressive spikes please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Scottish Referendum still dominating the headlines and causing wide swings for sterling exchange rates. (Ben Amrany)

So we are getting closer and closer to the key Scottish referendum tomorrow. The markets over the last couple of weeks have been extremely volatile purely on the back of will the YES or NO campaign be victorious. We are expecting voting to start tomorrow with the decision filtering through in the early hours of Friday morning.

The way that I see it is as follows. There is likely to be a major reaction for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a massive sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

One of the main reasons why the pound could decline by so much and for so long should the YES campaign win would be due to the reaction from the Bank of England. Interest rate hikes could be pushed back further from the expected Spring 15 target and another bout of Quantitative easing has been muted to get the markets moving should the unlikely happen. This could be disastrous for those looking at buying EUR, AUD, NZD & USD.

For those looking at selling the pound the risk to gain ratio is not worth taking the gamble on what may occur. With the polls so close at the moment the risks of losing thousands of the currency you need to buy by waiting until after the vote could be extremely costly and we have seen many clients capitalise on the current rates due to the uncertainty. Although we believe the NO vote to independence will happen it is not inconceivable that the polls and bookies are incorrect and we could be in for one of the largest historical shocks of our time.

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then speak with myself Ben Amrany and I will explain the options available to you and how best to minimise any risks you have on the currency.  You can email me at bma@currencies.co.uk 

In other news the Minutes from the Bank of England’s last interest rate decision showed no change in the voting with a split of 7-2 not voting for a rate hike. Unemployment also dipped slightly which assisted the pounds gains so now eyes will be firmly on retail figures tomorrow and that key vote.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

 

The pound surges in late trading but further losses are expected in the days to come. (Ben Amrany)

Sterling has today had an extremely volatile day’s trading all mainly due to the uncertainty of the Scottish referendum. It is currently playing havoc with the pound and today we have seen a high to low spread against the Euro from 1.2397 to 1.2543 and over a cent high to low against the USD.

The last poll showed there was a 50/50 split but we are expecting an update tomorrow and any signs that the YES vote is ahead once again expect to see further sterling losses. The Swings in the market is going to show how nervous the UK markets are about Scotland voting in favour of independenceand several news reports have highlighted how damning it will be for the UK economy.

Here we have seen a massive increase in the volume of clients buying and selling the pound as the uncertainty is very concerning. With reports that a YES vote could cause the pound to fall by as much as 10% if you are buying or selling sterling you have to ask yourself how much risk to gain ratio you want to take on your exchange because even if a NO vote (which we do expect) happens the pound may only climb by 1-2%. If you take into account what the losses could be it is just not worth the gamble in not exchanging your funds now. This time next month we could be as high as 1.27 or as low as 1.17. This is a real likely spread depending on the outcome and you may be wise just to know how far your funds are going while the rates are still favourable.

So if you are looking at buying or selling a specific currency you may be wise to speak with myself Ben Amrany and I can explain all the options available to you to help you minimise your losses while helping you achieve a much better rate than what the high street banks will offer. You can email me with your contact details and requirement at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will contact you to explain the current market place and  how best to minimise those losses.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling back below 1.25 against the Euro (Ben Amrany)

After yesterdays bank of England which gave the pound a real boost after two members of the Bank of England voted for interest rate hikes we have seen the pound lose all of its gains against the Euro, USD and the southern hemisphere currencies. The losses have been on average about 0.3%

The Euro is now below 1.25 the Dollar is in the 1.65’s and this is a massive decline compared to two weeks again when the rates were above 1.26 & 1.70 respectively. The losses today occurred when retail figures showed a decline from the anticipated rate and has hindered the pound.

All data at present is having a real time effect on when the markets predict this first interest rate hike in the UK. The quarterly inflation report a couple of weeks ago hindered the pound when interest rate hike expectations were put back to February 2015 at the earliest now and all UK data which comes out negatively can theoretically push back this data back. We are expecting this dip for the pound to cement itself between 1.24 and 1.2550 over the next couple of weeks.

Tomorrow there is no data to note of out of the UK and we could find a very dull end to the week and with a bank holiday on Monday the markets should be flat until Tuesday. If you are looking at buying or selling you may wish to asses things before the long weekend to make sure you do not get caught out of there are any big movements.

With contracts available like forward buying where you can secure what you need now and pay for it at a later stage this can help you budget to the full and give you the peace of mind to know how far your funds are going. For more information on this or any other part of the service we offer please do feel free to contact myselfBen Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk 

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

 

Sterling weakened so now are the best rates to sell Euros & Dollars to buy the Pound (Ben Amrany)

The pound has had a very bad day weakening significantly against most of the majors. Comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney saw the pound fall from highs of  1.2632 to a low of 1.2468 against the Euro. The Dollar was a similar theme falling from 1.6843 down to 1.6685 and some the biggest losses were against the southern hemisphere currency with over a 1% drop against the Australian & New Zealand Dollar along with the Rand.

Have the wheels come off for sterling exchange rates? 

The Quarterly Inflation Report by the Bank of England dampened the hopes of any future interest rate rises in the UK as markets are now expecting that first rate to be no earlier than February 2015 while prior to the report we were expecting a rate hike as early as November. The report also slashed its wage growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.25% That forecast comes as official figures showed average wages excluding bonuses grew by 0.6%

Wage increase is one of the biggest concerns for the BoE before raising these interest rates. Carney’s also commented that the value of the pound has been to high and it has been effecting UK businesses and their exports of late.  So I ask. is this the start of the decline after we have witnesses really good gains in the last year. Nothing continues to go up for ever and this Friday the GDP figures will give us a good indication if the pound can recover today’s losses.

We expect to see growth for the UK economy but the key for the pound will be determined by whether growth is above or below 0.8% for the quarter and 3.1% for year on year.

If below forecasts we may see the pounds trend from today continue and a target of 1.2450 may occur so you may be wise to secure your funds before this key release. GDP is one of the biggest factors that affect the pounds movements and while we are still trading at very attractive levels now may be a wise move to act and secure your funds.

if you are looking at buying or selling the pound please feel free to email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will introduce myself and the service we can offer a little more formally. Rates can be up to 4% better than the banks and we will help youtry and time your exchange.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

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