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Sterling starts the week off with a little weakness – What may the rest of the week bring for the Pound? (Daniel Wright)
Sterling started the week off in a rather somber mood today, losing ground against almost all major currencies apart from the ever weakening Japanese Yen.
Tomorrow morning sees the release of Industrial and Manufacturing productions figures along with the Trade balance level for the U.K – Yet again these may help to again indicate whether or not the U.K has avoided the dreaded recession and however they do come out you can almost guarantee it will lead to lots of major analysts jumping in to make their fresh predicitons on the matter which could lead to a bit of early morning volatility – The releases come out at 09:30am.
In a reasonably quiet week for U.K economic data heads will then turn stateside on Wednesday evening as we see the FOMC meeting minutes from the last interest rate decision over in the U.S. These minutes may easily affect global attitude to risk, just like we saw with the sharp movements on Friday after the U.S jobs data, so if you have a pending transaction to carry out involving the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar or any of the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies then it may be prudent to have a limit order or stop loss in place to take advantage of market movements or indeed protect yourself from adverse market movements. If you would like more information on these handy and free market tools then feel free to ask me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain them.
If you are looking to make a currency transfer either imminently or in the future then feel free to get in touch, not only do we pride ourselves on providing great market information on this site but we can get much better rates of exchange than the banks, along with beating other brokerages on both rates and service. Why not get in touch and get a comparison, it takes just two minutes to email me and I will get back to you swiftly during U.K office hours – Contact me (Daniel Wright) the owner and main author of this site and I will be happy to assist you personally. djw@currencies.co.uk
Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened and what may happen to the pound going forward? Sterling exchange rate news against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Swiss Franc and South African Rand
Good afternoon – Please find the latest news surrounding the Pound and what may happen going forward:
Sterling – Euro
The Pound has had a fairly stable week against the Euro.
Today could have created a great deal of volatility and there were some fairly swift exchange rate movements however head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi did not announce anything of any great significance during his press conference this afternoon and the bank of England kept everything as normal regarding interest rates and Quantitative Easing.
Tomorrow morning we have European Retail Sales figures out which you would imagine will not be great so we may see a small Euro buying opportunity in the morning.
Sterling – Dollar
The Dollar is seemingly making a little fight back once again against the Pound however four factors could affect this in the short term. Firstly the BOE interest rate decision today, secondly the issue with North Korea…. Hopefully this will calm down before any major action happens however be wary that you could see swift movements for the USD should the current threats start to gain some traction.
Thirdly, we have chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke speaking this evening on the U.S economy so be aware of potential sharp swings for the Dollar overnight depending on what he says regarding future economic policy.
Finally, we have Non-Farm Payroll data out tomorrow for the States which can actually affect all major currencies. NFP data is essentially the number of people in non agricultural employment within the U.S and the reason it can lead to market volatility is it can effect global attitude to risk – Keep your eyes peeled for this data at 13:30pm tomorrow.
Sterling – Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
The Pound is still finding these two as tough opposition and with news that commodity prices had risen by over 7% recently and that the Reserve Bank of Australia have once again kept rates on hold. The strange thing with these pairings is that both Governments appear to be disappointed with how strong their currencies are however neither seems to be doing much about it.
The general outlook is that the trend may continue unless someone steps in to do something about it however if global attitude to risk suddenly decreases then there is a good chance we may see a sharp spike and a potential buying opportunity – contact me today if you want to be made aware should this situation occur.
Sterling – South African Rand
This pairing has been fairly stable of late however once again attitude to risk falling globally may lead to the ZAR weakening again along with any further troubles over in South Africa that we saw a few months back.
Sterling – Swiss Franc
Again, no major movements of late for the pound against the Swiss Franc since the huge charge the Swissy made against Sterling a few months ago – Gaining around 8 cents in a week or so. This pairing is a strange one as the Swiss Government are still not particularly happy with the strength of their currency at present so at any point we could see them bring in a new fiscal policy like we saw quite some time ago where the Swiss Franc lost 10 cents in an hour!
All in all I think the strength of the Pound will be reliant on what happens with the bank of England today and also any rumours or predictions surrounding whether or not the U.K will fall back into recession on the 25th April.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and you already have a trading facility then feel free to get in touch and I will be more than happy to assist you or monitor the market on your behalf. If you do not have a trading facility yet think I would be able to help you both in terms of a great rate of exchange and level of customer service then click here to register with us which is completely free and carries no obligation but will allow you to get a comparison against your current provider to see if I can help you.
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Sterling exchange rates – What has Cyprus meant for the Pound against the Euro, Dollar and other major currencies?
The trading floor here is absolutely manic today as it has been for the past week or so mainly thanks the the on-going tale of events over in Cyprus.
Quite simply how can you be comfortable now holding more than €100,000 in an account in a bank withing one of the more troubled economies – realistically you can’t!
The Sterling – Euro exchange rate has been up and down like a yo-yo of late and with news of a potential credit rating downgrade for the U.K by Fitch on Friday evening it did look like the week may start off on the back foot for Sterling unless something major came from Cyprus.
Sterling has indeed lost ground against a number of major currencies but has also gained against those linked to the Euro after events unfolding today.
The Cypriot issue has no doubt created a huge problem for banks all over Europe and in my view is absolutely ridiculous and personally I feel it will now hold the Euro back from gaining too much strength in the near term. For those of you looking to buy Euros in the near future there should be some great buying opportunities coming up however do not make the classic mistake of getting too greedy, in my experience it is always the clients that hold out for that little that seem to end up actually losing out.
If you would like to be informed of any spike in the market then feel free to email me directly for a spike alert djw@currencies.co.uk - just last week a client got in touch with me requesting this, I emailed and called him when the market shot up and then got him a much better rate than he was being offered by his current broker – We don’t only pride ourselves on a highly efficient service but also our rates of exchange too! You have absolutely nothing to lose by contacting me for a comparison just to make sure you are getting the best price around.
Now, what does the rest of the week bring? Personally I feel there will be an extremely volatile market throughout these next few days and it is very hard to put together a decent argument as to how the Euro will strengthen back so I feel (and this is merely an opinion) that the Pound may gain a little more ground against the Euro, especially with rumours that we may see an imminent Italian credit rating downgrade.
Against the Dollar and riskier currencies I see a much flatter market however if things really do kick off in Europe you may see a little Dollar strength as investors seek a safer haven to run to.
If you would like an up to date forecast regarding any currency pairing then feel free to email me directly or to fill in the enquiry form on this website and one of our highly knowledgeable traders will give you a call back to discuss your requirements. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to help pay bills overseas to multi-million Pound corporate transactions – Just leave a brief description of what you are looking to do and we will make sure the right person gets straight in touch. Contact me (Daniel Wright) the main author and owner of this site by emailing me at djw@currencies.co.uk I look forward to speaking with you.
Cyprus urged to rethink their plans by European ministers – What may happen to the Pound and the Euro? (Daniel Wright)
As mentioned on the BBC there are growing calls for Cyprus to rethink their plans to tax savings which has caused outrage among many and could lead to huge problems for the Euro zone as a whole.
As I mentioned in my previous post this could lead to a run on the banks in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and other European economies as fear will grow that if this can be done by Cyprus seemingly off the cuff then it may end up happening elsewhere.
The Cypriots now feel they have been invaded and I think politically this is going to cause much more trouble than the short term fix it will provide and will damage the Euro further down the line.
Keep checking back here for news on this subject, after being postponed on numerous occasions apparently we may get a decision today, if they have not had a rethink then we may look at larger problems further down the line and personally I would not be surprised to see the Euro weaken accordingly.
For those holding Sterling this may provide a short term opportunity to buy Euros, depending on what we see come from the budget tomorrow, if the Government and Bank of England continue their doom and gloom train the Pound may quite easily drop back again.
If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out involving buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and i’m sure I can make you a saving over your bank or current broker along with offering a much smoother and sharper service meaning you do not have to watch the market all the time.
Email me today djw@currencies.co.uk join our mailing list or fill in the enquiry for on this page. You can also call me directly during U.K office hours 08:30am – 18:00pm. I look forward to speaking with you.
Sterling Exchange rates – What has happened this week? What may early 2013 bring for the Pound against the Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, South African Rand, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc? (Daniel Wright)
Wow, what a volatile week we have seen this week especially for Sterling/Euro exchange rates.
The Pound started off the week on the back foot following Moody’s credit rating agency downgrading the U.K AAA credit rating for the first time since 1978. Exchange rates dropped away against all major currencies over the weekend which is rare , and Monday morning by the time we arrived on the trading floor those with a need to sell Sterling and buy a foreign currency were stuck with a much worse exchange rate than they originally expected.
The Pound has stayed low against most major currencies, and the general outlook is that this may well continue for the coming weeks and months – Not helped by analysts in the Sunday Times commenting that they feel we may see parity against the Euro and 1.40 against the USD!
Sterling Euro exchange rates have however made a slight recovery over the week following the Italian elections which have been nothing short of a little comical to say the least, they have managed to make investors a little edgy about the European debt crisis and hence we have seen the Euro weaken a little, making it cheaper to buy at present.
If you have a pending Sterling Euro transfer to carry out however, you must be extremely wary as the Government and Bank of England seem intent on seeing the Pound stay weak where as on the flip side Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi was once again extremely positive in his comments during the week regarding the Euro Zone.
We have even seen reports on the BOE considering negative interest rates which one would imagine would certainly not do the Pound any good. On top of this, with the credit rating downgrade and the prospect of a triple dip recession on the cards it makes it extremely hard to put together an argument as to why the Pound is going to strengthen too much in the coming weeks and indeed months.
Transfer to carry out?
If you are one of my regular clients then do feel free to get in touch with me directly and I shall be more than happy to monitor the market for you or book out an exchange rate on a forward contract.
If you have not used me before yet have a currency transfer to carry out it may be prudent to consider your options and ensure that you have a proactive currency broker on your side. If you currently do not use a currency broker or you feel you could get a better price or level of service than you are currently getting then by all means feel free to email me directly and I will be happy to personally help you for any currency transfer. You can contact me on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling me on 01494 787 478 asking for Daniel Wright. I look forward to hearing from you.
A new year and a new look for Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened while we have been away?? (Daniel Wright)
Well as expected the Fiscal cliff episode did go down to the wire and will now probably still be spoken about for a while before we hear the end of it – What did it do to the currency markets?
Essentially it increased global attitude to risk (this was shown in the sharp rise in share prices today) which also led to investors pulling out of the ‘safer haven’ of the Dollar and pushing funds into the riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.
With this we saw a fairly sharp drop in the value of the Dollar and Swiss Franc making them cheaper to buy and a surge in strength for both the AUD and NZD. The Sterling/Euro pairing has spent the day not really knowing which way to head jumping between the mid 1.23s down to the late 1.22s over the course of the day.
In this current market you either have to have an eye on the rate all the time or you need someone to do this job for you, as the cost of your purchase can change sharply in a matter of minutes and you may get a nasty surprise when you come to purchase or sell your chosen currency.
We can help you with this, a large part of our service includes monitoring the markets on your behalf and we have a range of tools to protect you from adverse market movements such as stop loss and limit orders – Feel free to get in touch and ask how these work , they aren’t as daunting as they may sound!
If you would like an experienced currency broker on your side for any upcoming purchases either large or small for a private individual or a company then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk or by filling in the enquiry form on this page – I will personally get back to every email I receive and please do not think that we are too big for any of you – We are more than happy to help whatever your situation but we do not deal in travel money or cash.
We also have a mailing list on this page so feel free to fill in your email address and you will get my weekly currency updates.
Personally I feel the U.K may see some fairly good data releases this month so the Pound could be in for a good run – However as always the on-going European crisis and Fiscal cliff could easily turn things upside down at any time!
Happy new year to all of my regular readers and I wish you all a fantastic 2013!
Pound Sterling exchange rates – What to expect this week? (Daniel Wright)
We have a busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates with Wednesday being the big danger as we have the Bank of England minutes from the last interest rate decision coupled with unemployment figures for the U.K.
Any mention of further QE (Quantitative Easing) could lead to Sterling weakness and unemployment figures also released at 09:30am may be key.
Tonight those with an interest in Australian Dollars should be aware that we have the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes out at 02:30am which may lead to a shift in rates overnight, especially if there is a door left open for another interest rate cut in the next future. A cut in interest rates generally is seen as negative for the currency concerned so it could edge the pairing closer to the 1.60 mark.
Tomorrow morning we have a host of inflation data for the U.K and trade balance figures for the Eurozone so I would expect a little movement for GBP/EUR exchange rates tomorrow morning.
In my opinion Wednesday is the key day as mentioned above and this may set the scene for the rest of the week for the Pound against all major currencies – Especially if we do see the negativity of QE spoken about again.
Thursday we will see Retail Sales data for the U.K which is expected to have dropped a little but I still believe this figure should be fairly solid, Friday caps of a busy week for the Pound with Public Sector Net Borrowing figures once again for the U.K.
I would be a little wary of Fridays figures as borrowing figures by the U.K Government have not been great of late so if you have a transfer to carry out and the rest of the week has not led to you doing it then be aware this is certainly a release to watch as well.
Transfer to carry out?
If you are one of my regular clients then do feel free to get in touch with me directly and I shall be more than happy to monitor the market for you over the week
If you have not used me before yet have a currency transfer to carry out it may be prudent to consider your options and ensure that you have a proactive currency broker on your side. If you currently do not use a currency broker or you feel you could get a better price or level of service than you are currently getting then by all means feel free to email me directly and I will be happy to personally help you for any currency transfer. djw@currencies.co.uk and i look forward to hearing from you.
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Pound fighting back against the Euro what will happen next?
The Pound has started to creep up again against the Euro as speculation continues to rise once more as to what we will see next from the European Crisis.
Somehow part time magician and head of the European Central Bank had managed to magic away negativity surrounding the Euro and had helped it gain back more than five cents against the Pound in the last two weeks following comments that he felt the Euro was irreversible and that the European Central Bank would continue to buy up European bonds in order to keep levels lower.
Before this, Spainish and Italian bonds had crept above the 7% mark which not officially but has in the past led to countries asking for a bailout. In my opinion Spain have already kind of had their bailout as their banks have received a boost of funds and numerous regions in Spain have been bailed out, This in my opinion is a very tactful way of bailing out the country without having to actually say that they have.
With so many issues in Europe at present I struggle to see the Euro gaining much more strength before the next big news hits the front pages and investors get shaky again, this could weaknen the Euro so in my opinion now may be a good time to sell Euros and take advantage of the shift in your favour. This could also weaken the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and New Zealand Dollar. If you are looking to buy Euros then it may be worth keeping a keen eye on rates as things are changing so quickly you may need to act fast if the Bank of England decide to put a spanner in the works for the Pound before any negative Eurozone news arises.
The Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision were indeed released this morning and nothing of great note had been spoken about so for the time being Pound holders are safe.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and you wish to receive the best exchange rates for your transfers then it is imperative that you get in touch with me directly, I have saved thousands upon thousands of clients money on their currency transfers against banks and other currency brokers along with offering a high level of customer service, feel free to get in touch by emailing me directly djw@currencies.co.uk using PSF as your subject header or by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy to get in touch.
Global Decisions and Impact on the Pound – Pound Sterling Forecast – A quiet week on the markets?
The strength and weakness of the pound is mainly attributable to the performance of the economy in the UK. By and large when there are positive economic sentiments, the pound will gain and when the tone falls, the pound too suffers.
The pound also draws strength from the fact the UK is a safe haven. Investors have confidence in investing in the UK because of the certainty and confidence presented to the markets by a strong government. Whilst the UK has taken a hit in recent years, London is still a financial centre and the UK with its strong international political influence is regarded as a safe place to keep money. The lack of volatility increases investors confidence in the UK and hence the pound.
The economy in the UK is heavily reliant on exports for its growth and trade, yet it remains a net importer. Which basically means we import more than we export and hence there is a cost to our economy for doing so. What is interesting is that whilst UK exports to Europe have dropped, so too have UK imports from Europe. Nevertheless there remains a deficit which is growing. From May 2012 to Ausgut 2012, the size of difference between imports and exports grew 24.4%. Compared to June 2011 it has grown 54.4%, which is a very worrying sign. Not only is the UK buying less from Europe, Europe is buying less from the UK. And to a greater extent.
Trade outside the EU is slightly harder to evaluate since there are so many more variables (a wider range of countries to distort data), but it paints a similar picture. Which is that the UK is a net importer. This does not bode well for the pound in the future as ideally we want the UK’s own businesses to grow and flourish rather than rely on overseas countries for our goods and services.
International Politics and Economic policies can also have an impact on sterling exchange rates. When buying or selling a foreign currency, an awareness of all the issues surrounding that currency are useful to know in order to get the best exchange rate. Ongoing events in Europe are having a big impact on the pound as the international response to Europe is affecting cash flows and trade with the UK. The UK’s main exports will only flourish when there is stronger international demand for those goods and services.
It looks like Europe is about to enter a recession and we have already had many talks of Chinese and Japanese slowdowns. This is bad news for the pound because a reduced lack of demand from these countries will affect Europe, and the UK will in turn be affected since we rely on Europe for 40% of our international trade.
There are ongoing meetings amongst Eurozone leaders and this Friday the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will meet other members of the Federal Reserve Bank to discuss economic policy, namely the extension of more QE in the US. The outcome of these meetings will have an effect on global confidence which will affect inflows into the pound. The outcome of these decisions will have a big effect on the most traded currency pair EURUSD and the cash flows in and out of these currencies will affect GBPEUR and GBPUSD.
Attitudes to risk will also be shaped by the outcomes of these meetings and currencies like the Aussie, Kiwi and Canadian Dollar will also be affected.
So whilst it is a quiet week on the economic data front, we could yet see much more movement on all exchange rates. For a full risk overview of all of the events affecting your currency transfers, plus a commercial exchange rate, please feel free to contact the author Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 asking to speak to Jonathan.
Sterling still close to four year high against the Euro yet dropping against most majors – What is next for the Pound?
The pound has made great progress against the Euro of late edging closer to a four year high and leaving a smile on the face of those looking to purchase a property overseas in the near future. If you are in this position you are probably currently wondering whether or not the charge will continue or whether this is the best we will get for some time.
To be honest, anyone that says they know the answer to this must by lying as there is so much going on behind closed doors at present that it is really hard to tell just how deep these underlying problems are not just for the PIIGS of Europe but also for the U.K – Our banks are taking a bashing again and there may well be compensation claims a plenty further down the line due to the latest scandal… Just think how many Billions were lost on PPI claims, this surely cannot help. The further Europe finds itself in trouble the more likely the Pound will continue to struggle against most other major currencies as we are so exposed to these European problems and personally I don’t think we are officially out ofhot water until the BOE start mentioning interest rate hikes again which is an awful long time away.
In short, if you are in the process of buying a property abroad or may be looking to buy one in the near future it may be sensible to secure the currency required for the property on a forward contract whilst rates are indeed favourable. A forward contract is where you can fix a rate for anything up to two years in advance for just a small deposit, meaning there are no nasty surprises that can pop up when you come to paying off your balance, it also means that you can budget accordingly and get on with the other important matters with the purchase.
If you feel a forward contract is of interest or you do have a currency transaction to carry out and you want to achieve the very best rate of exchange along with a great level of service then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I shall be more than happy to help you.
