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A new year and a new look for Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened while we have been away?? (Daniel Wright)
Well as expected the Fiscal cliff episode did go down to the wire and will now probably still be spoken about for a while before we hear the end of it – What did it do to the currency markets?
Essentially it increased global attitude to risk (this was shown in the sharp rise in share prices today) which also led to investors pulling out of the ‘safer haven’ of the Dollar and pushing funds into the riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.
With this we saw a fairly sharp drop in the value of the Dollar and Swiss Franc making them cheaper to buy and a surge in strength for both the AUD and NZD. The Sterling/Euro pairing has spent the day not really knowing which way to head jumping between the mid 1.23s down to the late 1.22s over the course of the day.
In this current market you either have to have an eye on the rate all the time or you need someone to do this job for you, as the cost of your purchase can change sharply in a matter of minutes and you may get a nasty surprise when you come to purchase or sell your chosen currency.
We can help you with this, a large part of our service includes monitoring the markets on your behalf and we have a range of tools to protect you from adverse market movements such as stop loss and limit orders – Feel free to get in touch and ask how these work , they aren’t as daunting as they may sound!
If you would like an experienced currency broker on your side for any upcoming purchases either large or small for a private individual or a company then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on firstname.lastname@example.org or by filling in the enquiry form on this page – I will personally get back to every email I receive and please do not think that we are too big for any of you – We are more than happy to help whatever your situation but we do not deal in travel money or cash.
We also have a mailing list on this page so feel free to fill in your email address and you will get my weekly currency updates.
Personally I feel the U.K may see some fairly good data releases this month so the Pound could be in for a good run – However as always the on-going European crisis and Fiscal cliff could easily turn things upside down at any time!
Happy new year to all of my regular readers and I wish you all a fantastic 2013!
Currency markets see the calm before the storm yesterday – Will the hurricane change exchange rates?
Many clients of mine called in yesterday asking if their positions would be affected by the hurricane and quite honestly you never know what it may bring, natural disasters can be known to weaken exchange rates for the particular currency attached to them however for example when we had the horrific tsunami in Japan a few years back the Japanese Yen actually strengthened considerably as it was thought the Japanese Government were selling off investments and bringing money back into the JPY to help the costly need to deal with the disaster.
Yesterday was quiet on the markets and I think investors attitude to risk may be key for exchange rates this week. Should things really effect the States attitude to risk may drop and the riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR may weaken a little and you may even see a little Dollar strength. Personally I don’t see a huge effect on the market from the hurricane unless something fairly substantial comes from it which of course nobody wants to see.
Today head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaks so anyone with an interest in either buying or selling the Euro should be aware that rates could shift this morning and tomorrow we have Canadian GDP figures which could see some movement for the Canadian Dollar.
Friday has the potential to be the biggest market mover this week with Non Farm payroll data for the USA which is a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.
This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumour and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.
All in all apart from potentially Friday a fairly quiet week for economic data however that doesn’t mean nothing will happen, if you have an upcoming currency transfer it is key to have someone like me on your side, to let our regular readers we have now had over 3000 people contact us through the site and so far we have managed to get better rates of exchange and win business from numerous companies, if you are using one of the following it may be worth you getting in touch for a direct comparison:
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I deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from one thousand Pounds to multi million Pound transactions for both private clients and corporate clients… We have a regular payments facility too which is free and can assist anyone with smaller payments to Europe.
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Will the data this week lead to a better performance for the Pound? Much depends on GDP figures due on Thursday (Daniel Wright)
The U.K has seen some fairly good data releases over the past week or so however the Pound has struggled to gain any major ground against the majority of currencies asides from the continuing charge against the South African Rand which is still taking quite a battering.
For those with an interest in Canadian Dollars it is the Canadian interest rate decision this afternoon so be aware we may see some volatility there is any surprises are thrown up.
Tonight we have some inflation data for Australia (Australian data has not been great of late) and then we lead on to tomorrow which has the potential to be a market mover for the Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is off to Germany which may throw up a few comments and i’m sure investors will be hanging off every word. The Bank of Canada will release their monetary policy report which again has the potential to lead to a shift for the Canadian Dollar depending on what is detailed in it.
Tomorrow evening the Federal Reserve are expected to input QE3 at their interest rate decision however this is widely expected so I would not expect to see huge movements for the Dollar unless they decide to come up with any new fiscal policies.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and monetary policy statement happens tomorrow night so if you have an interest in NZD then make sure you have protection in place for vast movements overnight – No change in rates is expected but then and again most analysts didn’t expect Australia to cut rates last time around!
The main talking point this week for Sterling followers in my mind will be Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released on Thursday morning at 09:30am expectations are for 0.6% growth for the U.K economy which would lead to us technically being out of a recession (at last) and should hopefully provide a minor boost to Sterling. Of course there is a chance this may be worse than expected and this may dent Sterling fairly heavily but personally I get a good feeling about the release this time around.
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Will the Pound get stronger in the next few weeks? Sterling strength against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and more?
I have a huge amount of clients in the middle of buying a property overseas at present and the general thought on their minds is should I buy my currency now or shall I hold on until closer to completion?
Always a hard choice and one way to look at it is that you would never go forward with a house purchase in the U.K if you didn’t know how much it was going to cost and essentially that is exactly what you are doing if you have agreed on a foreign property yet you have not secured your exchange rate – It is indeed a pure gamble as the markets unfortunately do not move on hope.
There are a few options available for you to protect yourself from a nasty surprise should the market suddenly shift, I will list them below:
Forward contract – This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance, paying just a small deposit to hold the rate and then paying the balance on or before the date that has been agreed. This contract is great if the rates are above budget and you want to take advantage of them without having full availability of funds.
Limit order – If there is a specific rate you want to achieve then a limit order is for you, there is no cost to place the order and it can be canceled or amended at any point in time as long as the order has not been filled. The order stays in the market 24 hours a day 7 days a week so if you are a busy individual and do not have time to keep watching the exchange rates than this may be ideal for you.
Stop loss order – The opposite to a limit order if there is a rate you want no worse than then this is for you, If rates should suddenly drop away then as soon as the market hits your lower level your currency is bought out meaning you are protected from going over budget.
Hedge your bets – Why book out all your currency in one go, many of my clients split the risk by carrying out their transactions in chunks, meaning if rates should drop away they are not as exposed and if rates should spike they still have the ability to take advantage with a proportion of their money.
How will the Pound perform in the near term?
Of course we can never be sure exactly what is around the corner but after some positive news for the U.K yesterday I think the Pound could be on to have a good few weeks against the majority of major currencies, the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) actually believe that our economy grew by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2012. 0% or above would technically mean the U.K is back out of recession and although I have no doubt that we still have a huge amount of problems to resolve in the U.K this can only be seen as a positive thing for the Pound.
I generally have a good feeling about economic data this month and think the Pound could have a solid performance, however be aware that there is a lot going on with other economies most notably within Europe so even with good data for the U.K this still could switch our fortunes back around.
For more information on getting the very best exchange rates plus a forecast unique to your particular requirements please feel free to make contact directly with me Daniel Wright email@example.com or call 01494 787 478 asking for me directly. I welcome any enquiries for clients looking for assistance on their transfers. I look forward to hearing from you and hopefully enlightening you! Thank you.
The Pound has started to creep up again against the Euro as speculation continues to rise once more as to what we will see next from the European Crisis.
Somehow part time magician and head of the European Central Bank had managed to magic away negativity surrounding the Euro and had helped it gain back more than five cents against the Pound in the last two weeks following comments that he felt the Euro was irreversible and that the European Central Bank would continue to buy up European bonds in order to keep levels lower.
Before this, Spainish and Italian bonds had crept above the 7% mark which not officially but has in the past led to countries asking for a bailout. In my opinion Spain have already kind of had their bailout as their banks have received a boost of funds and numerous regions in Spain have been bailed out, This in my opinion is a very tactful way of bailing out the country without having to actually say that they have.
With so many issues in Europe at present I struggle to see the Euro gaining much more strength before the next big news hits the front pages and investors get shaky again, this could weaknen the Euro so in my opinion now may be a good time to sell Euros and take advantage of the shift in your favour. This could also weaken the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and New Zealand Dollar. If you are looking to buy Euros then it may be worth keeping a keen eye on rates as things are changing so quickly you may need to act fast if the Bank of England decide to put a spanner in the works for the Pound before any negative Eurozone news arises.
The Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision were indeed released this morning and nothing of great note had been spoken about so for the time being Pound holders are safe.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and you wish to receive the best exchange rates for your transfers then it is imperative that you get in touch with me directly, I have saved thousands upon thousands of clients money on their currency transfers against banks and other currency brokers along with offering a high level of customer service, feel free to get in touch by emailing me directly firstname.lastname@example.org using PSF as your subject header or by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy to get in touch.
The week ahead of economic data – Pound Sterling forecast against Euro, U.S Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and all majors – What will happen next with the Euro?
Euro Forecast and latest news from Europe
The Euro will remain the main talking point for weeks and months to come. Bond markets are showing extreme stress which is usually the first sign of a major crisis and the Euro has hit record lows against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar recently.
The real question everyone is asking is just how much further will it go? Personally I feel there is more weakness to come. Bond markets in Spain are now at Euro era highs and well over 7% (usually the unofficial trigger point for a bailout) Spain is the headline concern at present and on Friday Valencia, Spain’s most indebted region asked for assistance and an 18 Billion Euro assistance program aimed to assist regional finances.
Should Spain require a bailout then we will see a much different kettle of fish to the bailouts we have seen of late, personally I feel it will trigger the beginning of the end of the Euro for numerous economies and global markets worldwide will become extremely fragile to say the least. If you have Euros to sell or indeed are in the process of selling a property overseas a forward contract may be sensible. With a forward contract you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years for just a small deposit (which can be taken in Sterling) taking away the stress of continuing Euro weakness and leaving you in the peace of mind you know how much money you will actually receive for your property. Feel free to get in touch today on 01494 787 478 or email me directly email@example.com for more information on this contract type.
Pound Sterling Forecast The week ahead
Tomorrow gives us a fairly quiet start to the week with European Consumer Confidence the most notable data release due out in the afternoon, however personally I feel the markets will be fixated on what is happening with European bond levels I feel the Sterling – Euro rate will edge closer to 1.30 throughout the day.
Tuesday we have mortgage approvals data for the U.K which was fairly poor last time around, and retail sales figures for Canada later on in the afternoon. One thing that may throw up some volatility at any point in the day is the fact that Troika (lenders from the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union are due to visit Greece.
Wednesday we have inflationary data from Australia very early in the morning so anyone with AUD interest may wish to put protection in place by means of a stop loss or limit order overnight. U.K GDP data is also out at 09:30am on Tuesday morning and after a fairly poor performance from the U.K of late any sign of things looking up and the Pound may have a good day. Lastly on Wednesday later on in the evening those with an interest in New Zealand Dollars should be aware we have the interest rate decision for New Zealand at 10:00pm. No major changes are expected however a sudden cut in rates could lead to a sharp weakening of the NZD overnight.
Thursday is fairly quiet data wise however like with Monday bond markets will no doubt be key and by Thursday I expect the pace of speculation about the troubles with Spain to be at a maximum leading to very volatile rates of exchange.
U.S annualized GDP figures are due on Friday afternoon along with a host of other data. In times of uncertainty you do tend to see the Dollar gain strength as investors pull of riskier assets and look for a ‘safer haven’. The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents a volatile end to the week.
Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.
What can you expect this weekend with the Greek elections? Personally I feel we may not see the volatility many expect now – But we may well do in the coming weeks! Greek election effect on the currency market
I have had hundreds of calls from my regular clients in the past few weeks in panic about the pending elections and quite frankly this is unprecedented therefor it is extremely hard to know just what state or position the currency market will be in following the weekend elections.
Any of the following may happen:
The Anti Austerity party win, the Euro weakens as it suggests Greece may leave the Euro and the Dollar gains strength. Riskier currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR lose strength as global economic concerns are high.
The Anti austerity party win, the Euro strengthens as it is seen as one of the bad parts of the apple that may be due to be cut out. The Dollar weaknes and the riskier currencies strengthen.
The Pro austerity party wins the Euro strengthens the Dollar weakens and riskier currencies gain strength as it would suggest Greece may be willing to carry on with their austerity measures and although potentially this could easily change a little further down the line it may look like Greece will stay in the Euro for the time being.
Either side wins, the markets are a little jumpy but we don’t see any major movements – personally I think this is the most likely, the key for me will be what we actually see come out in the days following the elections… What comments are made and which actions are put in place, this will be the real bread and butter information for investors and this will be the key to where the markets may head in my opinion.
Of course anything can happen so do not take my work for it. and there is no doubt we are about to engage in one very rocky ride, I hope whichever way you need the currency markets to move for you they head in the right direction and I will try and come back to you all with updates throughout Sunday evening.. I am however away for the weekend so no promises!
If you have a currency transaction to carry out next week or in the next few months or carry out regular transfers and you want to have an experienced currency broker on your side then I can help you both in terms of getting you the best rate of exchange when you do carry out your transfer alongside helping you make the decision as to when to book out a rate of exchange which may save you a huge amount of money too. Email me directly email@example.com with a brief description of what you need to do and a contact number and I shall be happy to get in touch with you personally.
What will happen if Greece leave the Euro – How will they create their new or even relaunch their old currency?
Many of my regular clients have been asking me of late just what will happen should Greece actually leave the Euro? How long will it potentially take? What would the process be?
I have found a cracking article on the BBC regarding this matter and it explains everything in great detail – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18279522
My thoughts are that now that Greece will end up leaving the Euro no matter what happens in the elections this weekend however I don’t think it will be a big loss for the Eurozone it may well be seen as one of the rotten parts of the apple being removed.
The bigger issue will be if one of the larger economies steps forward and needs to leave, that will more than likely lead to a lot more complications, we are seeing signs of the issues Greece first showed signs of a few years back from these economies which indeed is a worry… 2012 will in no doubt be a nig year in economic history and if you have a requirements to either buy or sell Euros then it is key you have a currency expert on your side.
If you carry out bank transfers of anything from £1000 up to multi million Pounds then I can assist you both with your timing and getting the best exchange rate when you do carry out your transfer, depending on volume for corporate clients we can get better rates than almost all banks and brokers and for private clients I will bend over backwards to win your business from the banks or your current broker if you do get in touch via the site. I work for one of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the U.K and have done for many years, we are authorised as a payments institute by the FSA and we are a Public Limited Company so you can have peace of mind you are dealing with one of the best. Please feel free to contact me firstname.lastname@example.org quoting PSF in your subject header and I will be more than happy to help.