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Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead (Daniel Wright)
The Pound has had a fairly good start to the week against the majority of major currencies, slipping a little against the Dollar and Yen but gaining well against the Antipodean currencies, most notably against the Rand gaining almost 2%.
The rest of the week is also fairly busy, overnight we have the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes which may give the nod to any future interest rate cuts over there. The AUD has weakened today following weaker than expected growth figures from China.
Tomorrow morning we see key inflation releases for both the U.K and Eurozone – No major changes are expected for the U.K however anything different to market expectations could lead to a volatile morning for the Pound.
In the afternoon head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaks at 2pm so for those of you with the need to buy or sell Euros in the near future you need to be extremely wary of any mention of fiscal approach surrounding Cyprus or any of the other economies in the Eurozone finding life difficult at present.
Wednesday morning is of key importance for anyone looking to buy or sell Pounds in the near future as we have the Bank of England minutes from the last U.K interest rate decision and the unemployment levels, the minutes will show us how the members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of matters such as further QE (Quantitative Easing) and Interest rates. Any indication that the stance on policy may change in the near future may lead to a highly volatile morning for the Pound so if you have a pending transaction to make involving either buying or selling Sterling then it may be worthwhile letting me know so i can be the eyes and ears on the market for you. You can email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you feel I may be able to help.
Thursday we have Retail Sales figures for the U.K which could be a key indicator as to whether or not the U.K has dipped back into a recession so be very wary of a figure worse than expected as it could lead to Sterling weakness.
Personally I think that as long as the Bank of England do not come out with any surprises the pound could have a good week this week but of course anything can happen in this strange market that we have today.
If you have a pending transaction to make involving buying or selling Sterling against any other major currency then it is key that you make me aware, I can then inform you of any opportunities that arise in a market that literally moves every two seconds.
Feel free to reply to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk
I have thousands of satisfied clients that I have personally dealt with and quite simply I am here to save you money over your bank or current choice of broker along with helping you get a smooth and efficient service.
Pound Sterling exchange rate update – The week so far – Cyprus, Bank of England minutes, The Budget and what may happen going forward this week?
Good afternoon,
Wow, what a choppy week so far for Sterling especially against the Euro!
News on Friday night that Cyprus were planning to essentially tax money from savings accounts sent the Euro into a plunge and made buying Euros a lot cheaper over the weekend, following this there has been constant speculation as to what may happen next leading to exchange rates for GBP/EUR going up and down like a yo-yo.
This volatile market has led to some great buying opportunities over the course of the week and I have made many people that have informed me of upcoming transfers aware of these spikes in the market.
This morning the Bank of England minutes from their previous interest rate decision actually helped the Pound a little against all major currencies as they showed there had been no extra votes in favour of any further Quantitative Easing.
The budget this lunchtime led to exchange rates moving by over a cent from high to low during its announcement – a difference of £735.00 on a €100,000 purchase. Luckily nothing too terrible has been announced so the Pound has indeed held its ground so far.
The Pound has indeed had a terribly rocky start to 2013 and unless we start to see potential that the U.K may avoid a triple dip recession then we may see these minor gains drop back again.
The on-going situation in Cyprus will however hold the most force this week in my personal opinion, purely by mentioning the plans to tax savings accounts we may see panic in Cyprus and possibly other troubled economies once the Cypriot banks re-open and the longer that they don’t the more chance of trouble erupting too.
Tonight we have the Federal Reserve Interest rate decision over in the States and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) details from the States.
No change in interest rates is expected in the USA but do be aware they may bring in or comment on new fiscal policies. Over in New Zealand GDP figures are expected to show growth of 0.9% which will be fairly solid for the NZD if they do come out as expected, any change to this however may lead to a sharp correction for GBP/NZD overnight.
If you have a pending transaction to make involving buying or selling Sterling against any other major currency then it is key that you make me aware, I can then inform you of any opportunities that arise in a market that literally moves every two seconds.
Feel free to reply to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk
I have thousands of satisfied clients that I have personally dealt with and quite simply I am here to save you money over your bank or current choice of broker along with helping you get a smooth and efficient service.
The European Central Bank is far from exit – Draghi comments lead to Euro strength, what economic data is ndue out tomorrow and how will it affect Sterling exchange rates?
Mario Draghi – ECB is far from an exit
Latethisafternoon Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi spoke in public and the main thing to take from his comments were that he feels that the ECB is far from an exit and that Euro breakup fears were totally unjustified.
These comments led to the Euro gaining a little strength back towards the end of the trading day after a cagey start to the week thanks the Italian elections we saw ruffle investors feathers at the start of the week as covered in our previous posts.
Personally I feel this may now calm down fears surrounding Europe in the short term (which Draghi appears to be the master of doing) and may now lead to the Euro pushing back down into the 1.14s in the next few days – If only Mervyn King seemed to speak with the same confidence the Pound would be much stronger I am sure.
European data out tomorrow
We have a host of economic data out for the Eurozone tomorrow morning which will no doubt also be key to the Euros performance tomorrow, with European unemployment and some inflation data all due to be released before 10:00am.
No major change to unemployment is due and PMI data is predicted to be stable, so any improvement on predictions could back up Draghi’s comments and may assist the Euro with another push back against the Pound in trading this morning.
If you wish to be kept abreast of the action as it happens then fill in the enquiry form on this page and one of our highly efficient brokers will get straight in touch to discuss the various options available to you.
U.S GDP figures out tomorrow afternoon
The states are next to take the limelight as US GDP figures (Gross Domestic Product) figures are released.
Gross Domestic Product is a key indicator to the performance of an economy and any change to the predicted figure may lead to a swift shift in exchange rates for almost all currencies.
Expectations are for the level to come out at 0.50% growth so keep a close eye on the markets at 13:30pm this afternoon especially if you have a pending currency transfer to carry out.
This release will not just effect the Pound and the Dollar, it can affect all major currencies as with the U.S being seen as a guide to global activity it can effect attitude to risk so you can see sharp movements in the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
Feel free to contact me directly should you be concerned as to what any of these data releases may do to exchange rates, I can assist you with any bank to bank currency transfers for your company, a property purchase or sale or indeed any particular reason. You can email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number, a good time to call and a brief description of your requirements.
A new year and a new look for Pound Sterling Forecast – What has happened while we have been away?? (Daniel Wright)
Well as expected the Fiscal cliff episode did go down to the wire and will now probably still be spoken about for a while before we hear the end of it – What did it do to the currency markets?
Essentially it increased global attitude to risk (this was shown in the sharp rise in share prices today) which also led to investors pulling out of the ‘safer haven’ of the Dollar and pushing funds into the riskier currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.
With this we saw a fairly sharp drop in the value of the Dollar and Swiss Franc making them cheaper to buy and a surge in strength for both the AUD and NZD. The Sterling/Euro pairing has spent the day not really knowing which way to head jumping between the mid 1.23s down to the late 1.22s over the course of the day.
In this current market you either have to have an eye on the rate all the time or you need someone to do this job for you, as the cost of your purchase can change sharply in a matter of minutes and you may get a nasty surprise when you come to purchase or sell your chosen currency.
We can help you with this, a large part of our service includes monitoring the markets on your behalf and we have a range of tools to protect you from adverse market movements such as stop loss and limit orders – Feel free to get in touch and ask how these work , they aren’t as daunting as they may sound!
If you would like an experienced currency broker on your side for any upcoming purchases either large or small for a private individual or a company then feel free to contact me directly by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk or by filling in the enquiry form on this page – I will personally get back to every email I receive and please do not think that we are too big for any of you – We are more than happy to help whatever your situation but we do not deal in travel money or cash.
We also have a mailing list on this page so feel free to fill in your email address and you will get my weekly currency updates.
Personally I feel the U.K may see some fairly good data releases this month so the Pound could be in for a good run – However as always the on-going European crisis and Fiscal cliff could easily turn things upside down at any time!
Happy new year to all of my regular readers and I wish you all a fantastic 2013!
Currency market – The week ahead for the Pound against the Euro, Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar – Will the markets be rocked before Christmas? (Daniel Wright)
This week sees head of the ECB Mario Draghi speaking this afternoon, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes this evening, Inflation data for the U.K tomorrow, Bank of England minutes on Wednesday morning and GDP figures for the U.K, New Zealand, Canada and the States during the week. Please ensure you get your exchanges in early too as Christmas is fast approaching.
Pound Sterling Forecast – The week ahead
Today We have head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 14:30pm so for those with the need to either buy or sell Euros it may be prudent to keep a close eye on rates during this period – hopefully the current slide against the Euro will not continue but it would be rare for Draghi to say anything too negative this close to Christmas. Tonight we have the minutes from the latest Australian Interest rate decision so anyone with a requirement for AUD may wish to put protection in place in case we get an overnight slide.
Tomorrow Tomorrow morning is key for the Pound as we have a flurry of inflationary data out for the U.K along with the Bank of England quarterly bulletin. The rest of the day is fairly quiet when it comes to data releases so inflation could set the scene for the day.
Wednesday The Bank of England get their last chance of the year to rock the boat as we see the minutes from the last interest rate decision. How they voted for key fiscal policy decisions will be announced and the key here is once again to avoid more potential Quantitative Easing as it could lead to the Pound dropping once again. Later Wednesday night we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting minutes from their last interest decision, the key here will be how they plan to attack their economy going forward and we could see shifts overnight so be aware if you need any NZD in the near term.
Thursday US GDP figures will be the main talking point however we do have inflation data for Europe in the morning. The US GDP figures can have an effect on all major currencies as it may affect attitude to risk globally.
Friday could end the week with a bang, we have revised GDP figures for the U.K which are expected to remain steady however any alteration to this might lead to a sharp reaction for Sterling followers. Friday afternoon we have a similar release for Canada coupled with some inflationary data which will both be key for CAD followers.
Transfer to carry out?
If you are one of my regular clients then do feel free to get in touch with me directly and I shall be more than happy to monitor the market for you over the week however do be aware that between 24th December and the end of the year we are in on all working days however may close the trading floor early if demand is low.
If you have not used me before yet have a currency transfer to carry out it may be prudent to consider your options and ensure that you have a proactive currency broker on your side. If you currently do not use a currency broker or you feel you could get a better price or level of service than you are currently getting then by all means feel free to email me directly and I will be happy to personally help you for any currency transfer. djw@currencies.co.uk and i look forward to hearing from you.
Will the data this week lead to a better performance for the Pound? Much depends on GDP figures due on Thursday (Daniel Wright)
The U.K has seen some fairly good data releases over the past week or so however the Pound has struggled to gain any major ground against the majority of currencies asides from the continuing charge against the South African Rand which is still taking quite a battering.
For those with an interest in Canadian Dollars it is the Canadian interest rate decision this afternoon so be aware we may see some volatility there is any surprises are thrown up.
Tonight we have some inflation data for Australia (Australian data has not been great of late) and then we lead on to tomorrow which has the potential to be a market mover for the Euro, Dollar, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi is off to Germany which may throw up a few comments and i’m sure investors will be hanging off every word. The Bank of Canada will release their monetary policy report which again has the potential to lead to a shift for the Canadian Dollar depending on what is detailed in it.
Tomorrow evening the Federal Reserve are expected to input QE3 at their interest rate decision however this is widely expected so I would not expect to see huge movements for the Dollar unless they decide to come up with any new fiscal policies.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and monetary policy statement happens tomorrow night so if you have an interest in NZD then make sure you have protection in place for vast movements overnight – No change in rates is expected but then and again most analysts didn’t expect Australia to cut rates last time around!
The main talking point this week for Sterling followers in my mind will be Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released on Thursday morning at 09:30am expectations are for 0.6% growth for the U.K economy which would lead to us technically being out of a recession (at last) and should hopefully provide a minor boost to Sterling. Of course there is a chance this may be worse than expected and this may dent Sterling fairly heavily but personally I get a good feeling about the release this time around.
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Sterling currency movements today – Pound forecast against Euro, Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar and South African Rand GBP,EUR,USD,AUD,NZD,CAD and ZAR (Daniel Wright)
Sterling Exchange Rates today and what to expect tomorrow
Sterling – Euro
A busy day for GBP/EUR today as interest rate decisions were released from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, along with a press conference from head of the ECB Mario Draghi.
Neither rate decision really threw up any huge surprises however the press conference over the course of the afternoon did lead to quite a jittery market. Draghi once again reconfirmed his statement from last month that he feels the Euro is irreversible, and this coupled with the news that Spanish bonds were still remaining fairly steady ensured that the Euro is still holding firm against the Pound.
With little data out today for the U.K and indeed the Eurozone I would expect rates to remain fairly range bound of the course of today unless we hear of any progression with the almost certain pending Spanish bailout. If you look back at the week for both currencies then personally I feel the Euro has nudged it so might strengthen again slightly today.
Sterling – Dollar
Today at 13:30pm we have Non-Farm Payroll Data followed by the U.S unemployment rate. Non-farm payroll data can lead to a volatile end to the week as analyst’s projections can be quite a way out leading to a sharp and rapid market correction so if you have a transaction to carry out involving Dollars contact your account manager here this morning so that he can keep you full informed on market movements 0800 328 5884 With a little confidence once again installed into the market from the ECB yesterday the Dollar weakened away a little again. A strange week all in all for this paring as Australian data earlier in the week had ruffled investors feathers and pushed them back to the safer shores of the Dollar (with GBP/USD creeping below 1.61 again) but now it appears markets are ready to push down hard on the risk button again.
Sterling – Australian Dollar
The Aussie has indeed taken a bit of a bashing this week following a slightly surprising cut in interest rates on Tuesday and poor trade balance figures on Wednesday, The Australian economy is still performing fairly solidly however it does seem to appear the strong AUD is starting to weigh Australia down so personally I feel that we may see this rate improve a little further to round off the week.
Sterling – New Zealand Dollar
Comments made by the Finance minister in New Zealand about the effect of the strong Kiwi Dollar slowly damaging their economy have led to the NZD also having a troubled week. FX intervention has been ruled out so do not expect any major moves in the near term however personally I would not be surprised to see GBP/NZD continue the charge back towards 2.
Sterling – South African Rand
The Rand is on the ropes again after a wave of strikes across the country even outside of the mining industry, threatening a huge industrial crisis and absolutely knocking confidence in the Rand for six.
Personally I would not be surprised to see this escalate further and I feel the Rand may be in for a rocky ride for at least the next few months, there may be traces back as things settle temporarily but until this complicated issue is unwound the ZAR will find it hard to fight back.
Sterling – Canadian Dollar
Tomorrow we see the release of unemployment figures from Canada and the Pound had been edging towards the 1.60 mark this week.
The Canadian Dollar does rely heavily on Commodity prices however unless unemployment figures throw up a surprise I do not see a huge movement for this pairing which has been range bound for some time now.
Pound fighting back against the Euro what will happen next?
The Pound has started to creep up again against the Euro as speculation continues to rise once more as to what we will see next from the European Crisis.
Somehow part time magician and head of the European Central Bank had managed to magic away negativity surrounding the Euro and had helped it gain back more than five cents against the Pound in the last two weeks following comments that he felt the Euro was irreversible and that the European Central Bank would continue to buy up European bonds in order to keep levels lower.
Before this, Spainish and Italian bonds had crept above the 7% mark which not officially but has in the past led to countries asking for a bailout. In my opinion Spain have already kind of had their bailout as their banks have received a boost of funds and numerous regions in Spain have been bailed out, This in my opinion is a very tactful way of bailing out the country without having to actually say that they have.
With so many issues in Europe at present I struggle to see the Euro gaining much more strength before the next big news hits the front pages and investors get shaky again, this could weaknen the Euro so in my opinion now may be a good time to sell Euros and take advantage of the shift in your favour. This could also weaken the riskier currencies such as the Australian Dollar, South African Rand and New Zealand Dollar. If you are looking to buy Euros then it may be worth keeping a keen eye on rates as things are changing so quickly you may need to act fast if the Bank of England decide to put a spanner in the works for the Pound before any negative Eurozone news arises.
The Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision were indeed released this morning and nothing of great note had been spoken about so for the time being Pound holders are safe.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and you wish to receive the best exchange rates for your transfers then it is imperative that you get in touch with me directly, I have saved thousands upon thousands of clients money on their currency transfers against banks and other currency brokers along with offering a high level of customer service, feel free to get in touch by emailing me directly djw@currencies.co.uk using PSF as your subject header or by filling in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy to get in touch.
Sterling gains against the Dollar, Flat against the AUD and NZD and also loses against the Euro
The Pound has had a mixed day today gaining ground against the U.S Dollar yet losing against currencies such as the Euro and South African Rand. Rates have remained reasonably flat against the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar which are usually fairly volatile currencies.
We saw that Deutsche Bank expect Australia to fall into recession in 2013 which may mean that it is coming to crunch time for those of you holding out that still have Australian Dollars to sell. here is a link with that story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443855804577602552781925554.html
Head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has backed bond buying plans by the European Central bank which has led to a little Euro strength over the day and also is more than likely why we have seen the Pound gain ground against the U.S Dollar as investors have probably gained back a little confidence in the markets following these comments, pulled out of their ‘safer haven’ investments such as the USD and put them into riskier investments such as the South African Rand.
A decrease in demand for the Dollar following this of course then weakens the currency which may be why we have seen such shifts in trading today.
Tomorrow the most important release on the markets is in the form of the FOMC minutes over in the States, basically the minutes from the last Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision which may involve the discussions around QE3 (Quantitative Easing) and could lead to some overnight volatility depending on what has been discussed.
QE is generally seen as negative for the currency concerned however this has been fairly common knowledge that we may see QE3 at some point in the future so mentions of it being put back may actually strenghen the Dollar.
The most important release for the U.K this week is GDP or Gross Domestic Product figures out for the U.K on Friday, expectation is to see a revised figure to be slightly better for the U.K which may give the Pound a slight boost at the end of the week so if you have a foreign currency you are looking to sell then tomorrow and Thursday may be your opportunity.
For a free analysis of your position and what may move your rate of exchange in the coming weeks and months please feel free to speak with me Daniel Wright directly on 01494 787 478 or you can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk I welcome private and corporate clients of any size so do feel free to contact me today.
The slightest change in exchange rates can make quite a difference to the cost of an overseas property or the amount you will get back from the sale of one, get in touch with me today if you are in a position regarding overseas property and I shall be more than happy to assist you.
The week ahead of economic data – Pound Sterling forecast against Euro, U.S Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Canadian Dollar, South African Rand and all majors – What will happen next with the Euro?
Euro Forecast and latest news from Europe
The Euro will remain the main talking point for weeks and months to come. Bond markets are showing extreme stress which is usually the first sign of a major crisis and the Euro has hit record lows against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar recently.
The real question everyone is asking is just how much further will it go? Personally I feel there is more weakness to come. Bond markets in Spain are now at Euro era highs and well over 7% (usually the unofficial trigger point for a bailout) Spain is the headline concern at present and on Friday Valencia, Spain’s most indebted region asked for assistance and an 18 Billion Euro assistance program aimed to assist regional finances.
Should Spain require a bailout then we will see a much different kettle of fish to the bailouts we have seen of late, personally I feel it will trigger the beginning of the end of the Euro for numerous economies and global markets worldwide will become extremely fragile to say the least. If you have Euros to sell or indeed are in the process of selling a property overseas a forward contract may be sensible. With a forward contract you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years for just a small deposit (which can be taken in Sterling) taking away the stress of continuing Euro weakness and leaving you in the peace of mind you know how much money you will actually receive for your property. Feel free to get in touch today on 01494 787 478 or email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk for more information on this contract type.
Pound Sterling Forecast The week ahead
Tomorrow gives us a fairly quiet start to the week with European Consumer Confidence the most notable data release due out in the afternoon, however personally I feel the markets will be fixated on what is happening with European bond levels I feel the Sterling – Euro rate will edge closer to 1.30 throughout the day.
Tuesday we have mortgage approvals data for the U.K which was fairly poor last time around, and retail sales figures for Canada later on in the afternoon. One thing that may throw up some volatility at any point in the day is the fact that Troika (lenders from the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Union are due to visit Greece.
Wednesday we have inflationary data from Australia very early in the morning so anyone with AUD interest may wish to put protection in place by means of a stop loss or limit order overnight. U.K GDP data is also out at 09:30am on Tuesday morning and after a fairly poor performance from the U.K of late any sign of things looking up and the Pound may have a good day. Lastly on Wednesday later on in the evening those with an interest in New Zealand Dollars should be aware we have the interest rate decision for New Zealand at 10:00pm. No major changes are expected however a sudden cut in rates could lead to a sharp weakening of the NZD overnight.
Thursday is fairly quiet data wise however like with Monday bond markets will no doubt be key and by Thursday I expect the pace of speculation about the troubles with Spain to be at a maximum leading to very volatile rates of exchange.
U.S annualized GDP figures are due on Friday afternoon along with a host of other data. In times of uncertainty you do tend to see the Dollar gain strength as investors pull of riskier assets and look for a ‘safer haven’. The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents a volatile end to the week.
Should you have a bank to bank currency transaction to carry out either imminently or in the future then I can personally help you. I deal with private and corporate clients and offer not only award winning rates of exchange but an award winning level of customer service to match. Email me today djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance and I shall be more than happy to call you back, If you just want updates for now then feel free to join our mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand side of this page.
