This morning the latest Gross Domestic Product Figures will be released for the UK at 9.30am. The quarterly figures are expected to show growth of 0.1% against last quarter, however compared to this time last year there is thought to have been a decline of 0.3%. The main significance of this data today is that since the Brexit referendum has taken place the UK economy has stayed buoyant and durable. Over the past few months UK data has started to be rocky and I think this trend will continue.
In my opinion the GBP/EUR rate has the potential to fall this morning to the low 1.11’s, if not potentially breaking into the 1.10’s which will be the first time since November 2016. The negative data earlier this year appeared out of nowhere and was unexpected which had an adverse effect on the currency markets, today there could be the same effect.
There is very little optimism around for Sterling at the moment, with the IMF downgrading the 2018 growth over the weekend being the latest negative news for the UK currency. The UK does appear to be engaging heavily in foreign trade talks however none of these can come into effect until the UK has left the EU in 2019. Therefore despite the good news that there will be significant trade deals the markets are struggling to find to much hope just yet.
If you have a upcoming requirement you would like to discuss or ask any questions about my forecast please send me an email Ben Fletcher at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please write me a brief description of what you’re looking to do, I would be more than happy to share my thoughts to try and help you develop a plan that will enable you to maximise your transfer. I will aim to provide you with a response quickly, if you have a urgent query I can be reached on the trading floor at 44 01494 725353.