As we approach the halfway point of the month we see the pound holding some of the gains we have witnessed in April but still very much under pressure! Unfortunately there is very little on the horizon to indicate significant further gains this month. If you are selling pounds to buy another currency holding out for further gains could be very risky, current levels should not be easily dismissed. Here are some of the key thing to note if you are buying or selling which may affect your rate.
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Will the UK leave the EU? Expect pressure on sterling due to political uncertainty. Markets and investors want certainty in their investments. Fears of the damage a split Tory government, the rise of UKIP and a broken coalition would do to UK business weighed on sterling yesterday. Can Cameron tackle the ghost of conservative past and deal with the question of Europe? It is doubtful I have to say and this will weigh down the pound.
UK Growth Last months data was impressive and welcome but 0.3% is not anything to get too excited about. True the latest data sets have all been positive but the marginal improvements on what were dire figures still have a long way to go. Ultimately the UK’s stagnant housing market (particularly outside London) needs invigorating – Construction is the main drag in recent years. The second revision of growth figures at the end of the month could easily be a market mover.
Depending on which currency pair you are trading there will of course be many other things to move the market. Looking in my crystal ball (which has been pretty clear lately) I cannot see significant gains for GBP against the majors. Maybe a cent or two? Once again I see more danger of things dropping as the confidence of the last few weeks wears off.
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An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. email@example.com
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
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Sterling is finding better support against most currencies as a positive GDP figure is expected on Thursday. This is of course good news or bad news depending on what you need to do! A positive figure will not in my opinion be enough for sterling to shake the blues but, it may be enough to provide anyone hanging on for dear life with a little sweetener in their price!
The pound has been suffering this year and it is likely this pressure will remain. Economically the UK is in a mess! What has improved lately is the economic conditions in the US which will help UK businesses. Europe on the other hand is on the cusp of worse troubles and with less orders for UK businesses as a result, sustained economic growth from business in the months and years ahead will be difficult. You have been warned!
I suggest therefore if you are considering moving on a currency transaction you pay particular attention to what happens this Thursday. Earlier in the year I wrote about the three key issues to beware of on the pound this year. You can read the post here. The three issues were the EU referendum, the triple A rating and the triple dip recession. Two of those topics have come true, in two days time we will find the answer to the third. The pound is absolutely on the edge!
Expectations are swaying daily but the general consensus seems to be we have narrowly avoided the dip. Such data is notoriously difficult to predict and as such I expect the pound to be very volatile in the coming 48 hours. Do not mistake the UK avoiding the triple dip for proof of a return to the rates we saw last year or earlier this year. The outlook remains negative and this is why I feel anyone selling sterling for another currency should really take stock now!
If you have an exchange to consider in the next couple of weeks Thursday’s data is very much worth being aware of. Our proactive personal service aims to ensure our clients get the best information relevant to their requirements. We are currency specialists with many years experience assisting and guiding both private and corporate clients through their transfers. We offer an unbeatable rate of exchange and it is very rare any of us would be beaten on price by another company or the banks.
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The most important issue regarding pound sterling rates at present! How to get the best exchanges rates
The pound had been one of the worst performing currencies of 2013 until a few weeks ago when it bounced back from the very worst levels. The answer to the question of is the worst really over will be evidenced next week in the form of GDP data. Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the output or growth in the economy and is a key factor in determining the strength or weakness of sterling.
What strategy should I adopt for buying or selling the pound?
If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds and you are keen to take a risk it may be worth waiting until next Thursday as there is an outside chance you could see much better levels by 2 or 3 cents. If you are not keen to risk then I would tee things up a bit sooner as it is probable the pound may become more expensive. Please note if you are considering any exchanges and would like to run through your options please speak to me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org
The consensus among commentators seems to be that the UK has avoided the triple dip recession. This would mean that it is likely the pound will strengthen next Thursday. However because this expectation is quite high, if for any reason the data is bad we could see a big fall for the pound. Markets often move ahead of the event too, so it can be argued the pound is stronger lately due to this expectation. It is also true the pound is stronger due to events in Cyprus, money has moved out of Europe and despite all the economic woes for sterling, found its way to the relative safe haven of the UK.
If you are selling pounds to buy another currency then it may be wise to see how the data comes out next Thursday. This is because the pound may strengthen by a cent or so against most currencies. It is impossible to say exactly what will happen so the best way to ensure you don’t lose out unnecessarily is to register an interest with me so I can keep an eye on the movements for you. Rates can move up to one or two cents per day and on big volumes of currency this can become very costly.
If you are weighing up whether or not to sell or buy pounds and hoping for slightly more on the rate, then the outcome of this decision next week is key. You can be made aware of all your options and run through any ideas on what you feel may happen by speaking directly with me on email@example.com
The authors of site are specialist currency providers who can offer much better rates than the banks and other sources. We also offer assistance with the timing of your exchanges and providing forecasts. Ultimately no one can tell you exactly what will happen, but our expert knowledge of what drives rates and guidance on the processes involved will ensure you make an informed decision.
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GBPEUR Forecast – Will rates drop lower in April? Unlike the weather which remains as cold as a few weeks ago, the pound has shaken off some of the worst of this year. Concerns over Cyprus and the stability of euro zone banks, plus a slightly better performing pound indicate to me a fairly range bound few weeks of anywhere between 1.16 and 1.19. Significant gains for sterling look limited, as do significant gains for the euro. On balance I expect rates to be higher towards the end of the month as sterling slightly recovers and attention remains on the Euro zone economies.
What next for sterling? Will we triple dip? How can I protect myself? The next big event this month will be confirmation of whether or not the UK is in a triple dip recession. Numerous recent reports have hinted that the UK may have avoided the triple dip. I personally think this will be the case and we may see the pound find a bit of strength towards
the end of the month. If you are selling a foreign currency to buy pounds it may be prudent to act sooner rather than later. The New Zealand dollar is at close to all-time highs against sterling as are many other currencies. For more information to help you decide on when may be best to enter the market you can speak to our trading floor direct on UK Freephone 01494 787 478 and check live interbank rates here.
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It is no secret that the pound has been under immense pressure in 2013 but have those losses now come to an end? The three events I highlighted at the start of the year have to varying extents come true. To read my post you can click here. I think personally that the pound has reached a limit against certain currencies which means if you are banking on further improvements you may end up disappointed. This post will outline some of things to beware of, so you can take steps to ensure you don’t miss out.
Of course the answer to whether or not sterling rates will suffer is down to which currency pair you are talking about! GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPSEK are close to some of the lowest rates ever. That means if you are holding any of these currencies looking to buy the pound, there has never been a better time to capitalise. The continued excellent economic news benefitting these economies and the pitiful news for the pound has all helped to lead to this situation.
On the other hand you have GBPZAR which is up at close to an all time high! A truly excellent time to buy the Rand. This too may continue as long as economic uncertainty weighs on the ZAR and the pound finds some favour.
Against the USD and Euro the pound is struggling to maintain but this may be about to change. Mervyn King the Governor of the Bank of England has said that he thinks the pound has lost enough value. This led to sterling rising last week as it became apparent that perhaps the Bank of England would not be pulling out all the stops to make the pound lose value. Many commentators have commented on to what extent a devalued pound actually benefits the economy anyway. Therefore it would seem on the euro that particularly with events unfolding in Cyprus the best rates selling euros may have passed. On USD I would not be surprised to see rates tick down a little lower but feel that here too, we may have reached close to a bottom.
To sum up selling USD to buy GBP, you are still at close to a 3 year high! And selling EUR to buy GBP you are not far from a 1 1/2 year high.
Tomorrow we have UK GDP data and Thursday US GDP data. These events could easily move rates and the continued Cypriot saga is bound to add some extra uncertainty too. Will Cyprus bank account holders get access to their money on Thursday? The news is literally changing every few minutes. The markets are reacting to the news and it makes forecasting all that more difficult. Suffice to say it is creating opportunities for some.
If you have any transfers to consider this blog has directly and indirectly helped thousands of people save money. If you have a currency exchange to consider exploring all of your options could save you money. Even if you think your bank or other source of currency get you a good deal, a quick call to us could really be worth your time!
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This quote by Albert Einstein rings true for those making predictions or looking into the future. Sooner or later the day comes and you find out what you have been waiting for. Tomorrow is always one of those days as we are always looking ahead to see what will happen. Tomorrow in particular could be a very interesting day for sterling and shape movements for the next week or two.
The current spike on GBPEUR and recent improvements for the pound are begging the question will this carry on or will the pound falter? Looking solely at the pound and despite Mervyn King’s comments that he thought the pound had dropped enough, I think sterling will remain under pressure. This will become much clearer tomorrow when we have the UK Bank of England Minutes and the UK Budget. Just what has Osborne and the MPC got up their sleeve? Well probably not much!
It would be political suicide for the coalition to abandon the current plans. Abandoning the current course could potentially be more harmful to sterling. Ultimately whilst borrowing has increased and growth is minimal it could be much worse. Just look at what is happening in Europe right now. The Southern economies are in dire straits and the gulf with the Northern economies, Germany in particular is causing political tension. The so-called bank guarantees have been broken with the news bank accounts in Cyprus will now be subject to raids.
If we were talking purely about the euro I would say rates for buying euros will improve due to euro weakness. However tomorrow we have the UK budget, Bank of England Minutes and Thursday UK borrowing data. With the way the UK and the pound has fared in recent weeks these events are bound to attract international attention after the UK lost the triple A rating a few weeks ago. What hope does Osborne have to restore confidence. It appears the medicine for the UK will be based on more of the same.
A couple of weeks ago GBPEUR dropped to the mid 1.13′s in the morning before climbing to over 1.16 by the end of the day due to the Italian election. This was more movement in a day than you seem sometimes in a whole month! This just shows how if you are considering a transfer it is wise to make some plans to ensure you trade at the best rates.
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It has been quite difficult to escape all the problems for the pound over the last few weeks. I highlighted a few weeks ago here how I thought the pound was due some further losses but the key question is will it continue?
Trying to predict currency movements is a bit like predicting the temperature on a given day. You can give a loose range of where the temperature may be but it is unlikely you will guess the exact level. And just like you can make informed guesses on temperatures depending on the season, you can make informed guesses on currency according to the trend. Regarding sterling we are currently in the midst of Winter metaphorically speaking. And just like some of the UK was hit by unexpected snow flurries today, so too could the pound be hit by unexpected further bad news. The chance of any sunny spells (improvements for the pound) look limited and anyone hoping for rays of sunshine would be well advised to snap up any sunny opportunities they see!
Looking further ahead into my crystal ball we are bound to see the pound find favour but the problem is the number of hurdles before we get there. Mervyn King famously said last year he wasn’t sure if we were half way through the current economic crisis and sterling’s recent troubles are testament to that analysis. King will soon be assigned to history but his economic diet of QE and low interest rates looks set to be on the table for the foreseeable future. As does the coalition’s current economic path. Osborne has painted himself into a corner with austerity and any shred of credibility will be lost if he makes major changes. I expect the budget to contain little to get excited about although this is a date for the future for anyone looking for a change in current levels.
I don’t want to talk down the situation too much as the UK does have positives. Versus the euro zone we have an economy spluttering but not in a spiral. Versus the US we have some international confidence for at least trying to solve our budget deficit. The UK has taken steps (albeit unpopular ones) to rein in public spending and on paper at least this should put the UK in some good stead for the future. The flipside (and it is a big one) is that ultimately the measures taken have not had the intended consequence and markets are punishing the UK.
The thing with any market is that you should always expect the unexpected. To sum up the prospects for the UK I expect sterling to suffer a bit more but make a recovery in the none too distant depending on of course various unkown future events. Getting the best exchange rates can be achieved through understanding of what is driving exchange rates and making sure the source you purchase from are actually offering the best rates. Most banks give terrible rates and even if they do improve slightly it is highly likely we can undercut. Quite simply if we were not better we would not be in business.
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With so much bad press about the beloved pound in recent weeks it is pretty tempting to write off sterling prospects. And indeed it does look like further ground will be lost in the short term.
Looking to next week anyone considering buying or selling the pound could be in for another busy week of market watching. The reason for this is the UK MPC may be about to embark on yet more QE. This typically weakens the currency concerned and will spook investors. I posted last week stating the pound was due further troubles and lo and behold the UK’s credit rating was cut. I highlighted three key concerns for the UK, namely tripe dip, triple A and the EU referendum.
I think we can add to this list the prospect of QE and this may be seen as early as next week. There is a fairly high chance this would lead to the pound dipping by a cent or two. That may not sound like much but 2 cents at current levels on a €250,000 exchange is £3780. We don’t claim to be able to 100% predict the market (believe me I wish I could!) but our experience in watching and understanding markets, as well as managing client’s personal FX requirements means we can spot good opportunities and highlight future trends.
After a very busy week the pound seems to have found some support but we have tested fresh all time lows against the Kiwi and Aussie dollar. More sterling weakness could not be ruled out in the short term and most of the action next week on GBP will probably be Thursday.
If you are considering an exchange we can offer you an advantage via information on when to trade as well as offer an excellent market exchange rate. To find out more and for free information please contact me Jonathan on firstname.lastname@example.org, I look forward to hearing about your situation and offering a good deal.