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Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report, EU GDP figures and the Australian Budget. Busy week on the currency markets! (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling started the week poorly against a number of currencies falling against the Euro and US dollar but continuing its recent resurgence against the Australian dollar. This week there is plenty of data to keep anyone with a keen eye on the money markets with some of the notable data sets as follow:
- Today 09:30 BST - Australia will release its yearly budget. This will be keenly viewed as the Australian government faces questions about its handling of the economy ahead of elections later this year. With the economy having been affected by weaker global forecasts and in particular from China, for which the Australian economy is heaviliy reliant, the outcome of the budget could be very interesting. Some analysts say that while the mining sector has been the driving force behind Australia’s steady economic expansion, other parts of the economy have stagnated or grown much less quickly. A key reason has been the strength of the AUD and the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) have been open in highlighting their concerns and may act to devalue the dollar, potentially good news for those buying dollars.
- Wednesday 10:00 BST- anyone with an interest in the Euro should watch out for EU GDP figures. Figures are expected to stay at -0.9% but any deviation from the expected figure and watch out for volatility on Euro exchange rates.
- Wednesday 09:30 BST – UK unemployment figures expected to stay at 7.9%
- Wednesday 10:30 BST – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and Mervyn King press conference. The BofE publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. Watch out for any clues with regards to QE, I personally believe the Bank will stay firm on its current p[olicies until the new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July.
- Friday 00:45 BST – Japan GDP release, expected to show an increase from a flat 0% to 0.7%.
- Friday 13:30 BST - to finish off the week on Friday we have inflation figures and unemployment data from the US at 13:30 BST.
As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD exchange rate forecasts. Get help to maximise your currency exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As expected the Bank of England (BofE) decided to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and decided against extending its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.
This outcome was very much forecast and the market did very little as a result as many analysts expect little to come from the BofE until new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July. Following the release the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released its forecast for GDP for the last three months to include April, the figures showed a stronger than expected level of 0.8% continuing the recent positive tones coming from the UK, something that could lead to sterling strength against a number of major currencies.
GBP/EUR
Sterling exchange rates have shown a marked improvement against the single currency since the year low of 1.1370 in March. Since this time the market has peaked at 1.19 (a shift of 4.5%) but has now remained range bound between 1.1750-1.1850 since the start of May. But what now for GBP/EUR?
For me I believe the pound will begin to find further support and may break through the 1.20 barrier heading into June, however I believe when Mr Carney takes over his reign as the head of the Central Bank then I believe he will look to impose himself immediately and look to extend QE to help boost the UK economy further. Should we see this then I would expect Sterling exchange rates to fall back towards the 1.18 territory as a result. For this reason anyone looking to buy Euros I feel you may get better value in the weeks to come but those selling may wish to consider their options.
GBP/USD Exchange Rates
As against the Euro, sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback rallying from the year low of 1.489 in March to 1.559 earlier this week. This again represents a 4.5% shift in less than two months and to me represents a strong buy opportunity.
For me I feel GBP/USD is reaching a peak and would expect levels to fall back towards the 1.52/53 level as again the pound is likely to come under threat from future expectations regarding QE. I also feel it is a matter of time before problems in Europe re-surface and the major benefactor is likely to be the USD.
For those looking at GBP/USD in the coming days watch out for a speech from Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon at 13:30 – positive tones from Bernanke are likely to lend support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Has the Aussie bubble burst?
In the last month the pound has rallied close to 9 cents against the AUD following weaker sentiment from China, and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates earlier this week. This is creating some great opportunities for AUD buyers a trend that may continue.
For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at 1.52 you are still ahead of the game. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.
Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling at a three month high against the Euro, Aussie and US dollar (Mike Vaughan)
As expected the European Central Bank cut its base rate to a record low of 0.5% from 0.75% earlier today pushing GBP/EUR close to 1.19 for the first time in nearly three months, as Mario Dragji (head of the ECB) indicated he would consider cutting rates further and could not rule out negative interest rates. The move for sterling has been a welcome relief for many and showing little sign of slowing, in fact the pound has now gained 4.3% against the single currency since its low in mid March and a very similar trend has been experienced against a number of major currencies.
Moves against the greenback and Aussie have been even more substantial seeing a shift of 4.5% since mid March against the US dollar and 5.2% against the Australian Dollar in the last month. This makes a significant difference on your money exchange and may represent a strong buy opportunity for some, however I guess the question for many is will this last?
For me I believe this could be the start of a correction for the pound, certainly against the Euro and Australian Dollar but I feel the US dollar is less clear and will remain range bound between 1.53-1.55. Those buying Euros and AUD may get more from the market and I would look for levels to head towards 1.20 for GBP/EUR and possibly 1.55 for GBP/AUD. AUD buyers should watch out for the next RBA meeting (Reserve Bank of Australia) scheduled for Tuesday next week, should the RBA Australia cut interest rates (as some analysts are predicting) we could see a further shift for GBP/AUD, I feel the RBA may also be considering further rate cuts later this year and would expect to see more value for AUD buyers in the coming weeks, particularly should China show further signs of an economic slowdown.
For those looking to buy the US dollar I would certainly consider 1.55 to be viewed as good value and feel this has the potential to move back towards 1.50, although data of late from the US has been weaker than many expected which has pushed cable close to 1.56. Tomorrow watch out of US non-farm payroll figures that are expected to show a strong increase from last month, something again that could lend support to the dollar in tomorrows afternoon session. Much of the dollars moves will come down to perceived appetite for risk and I think with the market still so jittery losses for the dollar will slow and would expect levels to shift back in the dollars favour, I would expect US dollar sellers to get more value in the coming weeks.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Crunch time for the UK, will recession be avoided? Exchange rate forecasts (Mike Vaughan)
As my colleagues post highlights opinion in the office is entirely divided. The majority of traders believe a 0.1% figure will be released and this in turn should lend support to sterling exchange rates as a result. I for one have predicted this and hope for a better day pushing GBP/EUR above 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.54 and GBP/AUD pushing closer to 1.50 – a trigger point for many AUD buyers.
Of course the decision will be a close one and many of those with an interest in the money markets will be keeping a very close eye on the 09:30 release. The office has a range of predictions from 0.1% to – 0.2%. To avoid recession we need to see 0% or better, something that may give the economy a much needed boost. Of late data in the UK has been somewhat better with the only exception retail sales, but these have been affected by unseasonably poor weather, something you cannot legislate for. Today could prove incredibly volatile, should you wish to remove this uncertainty then get in touch early on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Although UK GDP data is likely to dominate today’s trading, other data to watch out for will include the following:
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 – expecting to show a slight decrease possibly lending support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Overnight we have the interest rate decision from Japan – expected to stay on hold at 0.1% and should cause little movement for GBP/JPY but watch out for the Bank of Japans monetary statement that will follow. This will outline the policies the BofJ will have in store and could have an impact on riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the JPY is often used in conjunction with these currencies through he use of a carry trade. This is when investors borrow in a low yielding currency i.e. JPY and look for higher grossing currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR. It is a risky trade as the exchange rate movement can remove any gains from the higher yield offered and as a result economic sentiment from Japan could adversely affect the riskier currencies. I for one feel further opportunities will be seen for buyers of the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the coming few days and weeks.
To finish off the week watch out for annualised US GDP at 13:30 tomorrow. Expected to show a strong improvement which should drive cable rates back towards 1.51/52 to finish off the working week.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Bank of England minutes this morning, what impact will this have on the pound? (Mike Vaughan)
Today, as the country pays its last respects to the Iron Lady, the Bank of England will release its latest minutes from the interest rate decision held at the beginning of the month. The minutes are widely scrutinised for any clues as to future monetary policy and in particular whether the bank is considering further QE (Quantitative Easing). It is my view that the bank will not consider any QE in the short term and I hope the pound may have a positive day as a result. Of course any indication that QE will be considered again and the pound could fall across the board against the majors – for this reason today could prove very volatile.
For me the Bank of England will hold steady on any radical policies until the result of the latest GDP figures on the 25th April are released. This will officially confirm whether the UK has avoided recession, and I feel the result will be very close. With the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) just last week forecasting revised figures of 0.1% I am confident the UK will scrape through and we may see sterling strength as a result. I would hope to see GBP/EUR moving towards 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.55 and GBP/AUD breaking the 1.50 barrier.
IMF cuts global growth for the fourth consecutive time
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headed by Christine Legarde reduced its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area’s recovery lagging behind the rest of the world, its then stated it felt the global economy to grow a further 3.3% this year, less than the 3.5% forecast in January, after 3.2% growth in 2012 – this beings its fourth consecutive reduction in a row. The market didn’t react a great deal, as this news is of little surprise due to the state of much of the economic world, however it still is not particularly positive.
China’s growth forecast, is this a concern for the global economy?
Although figures from China were poor they are still considerably higher than much of the developed world, however signs that China is slowing may give cause to concern for the commodity based currencies such as the AUD and ZAR. Following the reduced forecasts the AUD weakened over 1.5% and the ZAR over 2.5% against the pound, a trend that may continue, all be it on not such a heavy scale. Figures for GBP/AUD are the best in nearly 6 weeks (1.4850) and GBP/ZAR has reached above 14 – I would expect those buying these currencies to get better opportunities in the next few days but these levels may not hang around for too long.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement.
To find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 787478 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run through your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBP/USD at 1 month highs. GBP/USD, GBP/EUR, GBP/NZD exchange rate forecast (Mike Vaughan)
Sterling exchange rates have had an interesting time of late rallying against the Euro in the wake of the Cyprus debacle (ministers meet today to finalise the bailout with some analysts suggesting the cost of the rescue may rise to €23bn) and the USD but still looking significantly out of favour when paired against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. In fact the latter two are currently trading at near record highs against the pound a trend that may well continue in the short term and I would certainly urge anyone selling AUD and NZD to take stock of their positions whilst rates are so strong.
What’s in store for Sterling?
For me the overriding factor to determine the direction for Sterling against a host of currencies will be the avoidance of the triple dip recession. Earlier this week the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) released its latest prediction showing revised figures of 0.1% suggesting the UK may just scrape through into positive territory as far as GDP and growth is concerned.
We will not find out the official results until the 25th April and expect market volatility in the run up to this date, but should we avoid the ‘triple dip’ then we may finally see some much need support for sterling. Of course with the result very much on a knife edge it could swing Sterling either way and continue this period of market volatility and uncertainty.
GBP/USD exchange rates
Sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback having regained over 6 cents from the 1.48 lows seen this time last month. This is a near 4% swing in favour of sterling and to me represents a good buy opportunity.
Today we have plenty of data that could affect cable starting with retail sales figures at 13:30 BST and finishing with a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at 17:30. Retail sales are expected to show a drop month on month and may create further opportunities for those clients that are in a position to take advantage.
Those looking to buy dollars may wish to avoid Bernanke’s speech at 17:30. Tuesdays FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes suggested the FED’s stance on quantitative easing could be wound down throughout the course of 2013 and should Bernanke re-confirm this then we may see the dollar recover late on, his speech may also indicate as to what future policies the FED could introduce and outline the FED’s stance on the current US economy. The old saying goes that ‘when the US sneezes the world catches a cold’, therefore any
sentiment from Bernanke is keenly viewed by investors worldwide and can cause large shifts on the money markets.
NZD at record highs
As mentioned in yesterday’s market report the Kiwi dollar has been going from strength to strength in recent weeks and in fact reached near record high over the course of yesterday’s trading. Recent trends have been attributed to improved imports from China, and in particular an increase in demand for products in New Zealand.
The moves have been quite staggering in recent years having gained in excess of 20% since March 2011 and over 10% since the start of this year. Should you have a requirement to sell NZD you will do very well to find a better time than this.
In other news…………
The Bitcoin virtual currency lost half its value on Wednesday because of a panic sell-off. From a high of $260 (£169) for each Bitcoin, the value dropped to about $130 (£84) in just six hours. The selling frenzy began as Bitcoin’s main exchange, MTGox, struggled to keep up with the volume of trade in the virtual currency. The “soaring price” of the Bitcoin has made it impossible for MT to cover what it owes to members – has the Bitcoin bubble burst?
As one if the UK’s longest standing independent currency brokers we have the ability to buy and sell nearly all major currencies but sadly for some cannot trade the Bitcoin. However shouldyou be looking at a more traditional investment such as property overseas, or emmigration, or have a substantial corporate trasnsaction to arrange then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk for further information on the currency service we can provide.
Will the UK avoid recession? The BCC certainly thinks we will…..could the pound get stronger? (Michael Vaughan)
Today has been a slightly strange day as the pound has lost ground against the majority of currencies, and in some cases quite heavily losing over 1% against the New Zealand Dollar, 0.9% against the Australian Dollar, 0.7% versus the US dollar and 0.6% against the Euro. This comes following a much needed Easter break, and although the UK is showing little sign of spring like conditions, could we be seeing the beginnings of an economic recovery to brighten up your day? Certainly the British Chambers of Commerce thinks so. In a report released this morning the BCC indicated that a strong performance by Britain’s service industries during the first three months of the year has kept the economy growing. The BCC’s survey, which included more than 7,000 firms, found that conditions for both the services and manufacturing sectors were improving, but the services sector saw some of the biggest improvements, with strong domestic sales and exports, and with Services accounting for about three-quarters of the UK economy this is certainly positive news.
Following this news from the BCC the Euro zone released their latest unemployment figures showing a record high of 12% and bringing total unemployment to over 19 million. The highest jobless rates were 26.4% in Greece, although this figure was from December, and 26.3% in Spain. This you would think would all lead to a good, positive day for the pound, but we have infact seen the exact opposite. I for one cannot see an exact explanation for the pounds losses however to me this really empasises what a volatile market place this currently is. I do feel this is a s light blip for the pound and would expect levels against the Euro in particular to remain range bound between 1.17-19, I do also feel the overall benefactor of the ongoing Cyprus debacle will be the US dollar as it gains from its historical ‘safe haven’ tag. For this reason look for a move back to 1.50 for GBP/USD and EUR/USD to move towards 1.27.
Should you have any upcoming money transfers to arrange and you have found this blog useful then why not contact us to see what we can do for you? The purpose of the site is to give you independent market views to help you make an informed decision with your currency exchange. By giving yourself as much information as possible it can put you in a far stronger position when attempting to maximise your currency exchange, allowing you to limit your exposure to adverse market movement. Should you wish to find out more about the specialist currency service we provide, whether you are a private or corporate client, then we can help. Please get in touch either on 01494 725353 or by emailing me with a brief description of your individual requirement and I will happily contact you and run though your options. You can reach me direct at mgv@currencies.co.uk
Sterling sees further gains against the Euro as GBP/EUR breaks above 1.18, get the best deal on your foreign exchange (Michael Vaughan)
As we head towards a much needed extended weekend break the pound is continuing its mini-recovery against the Euro moving nearly 5 cents in the last two weeks. This is bringing some unexpected respite for many and creating some good opportunities for Euro buyers. I do also feel those selling Euros should still look at the current levels as an opportunity. Taking a look back across the last two years trading the average price for GBP/EUR sits at 1.195 so you are still ahead of the game sitting at the 1.18 level and still some 7.5% better than the pre-Christmas 2012 levels.
For me this could be the start of prolonged recovery for the pound, particularly if the UK can avoid the triple dip recession. Recent data suggests it will be a close run thing but is certainly starting to look a little more optimistic for the UK with better than expected retail sales and public sector net borrowing figures from last week shining a brighter light on the UK’s slow road to recovery. I have been saying for some time how I couldn’t understand why the pound was so out of favour, particularly when compared to the Euro. For me it was inevitable that the European bubble would burst and those with an interest in the GBP/EUR pairing were possibly focusing to much on Sterling’s woes and forgetting the deep rooted problems facing the Euro zone. With Cyprus looking to agree terms to their €10bn bailout by imposing strict bank levies on deposits, this means in some cases holding up to 40% of individuals hard earned cash.
Some will argue that Cyprus has no choice, and in many ways they do not, but its sets a very dangerous precedent to the rest of Europe. Should this scenario spread to the rest of the euro zone then the knock on effects could be catastrophic and create a significant shift in investor confidence. This could cause a significant shift in GBP/EUR and EUR/USD exchange rates and you may also find a large shift from riskier currencies offering higher yields such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. A major benefactor could be the USD and the ultimate loser the Euro. We are some way from this situation but I certainly feel opportunities will arise for those looking to buy Euros. Should you be selling however I would start to get a little concerned with the current trend and you may wish to explore your options.
When buying foreign currency it is important to give yourself the best opportunity to maximise your conversion. By using the services of a specialist foreign exchange brokerage this will give you the ability to take control of your currency requirement. This can be done through utilising one of the many contracts we have available such as spot/forward contracts and stop/loss or Limit orders. We will also aim to contact our clients as soon as a particular target rate has been achieved through our market rate alert service. To discuss the service we provide in full or to have me contact when a particular rate becomes available then please contact me at mgv@currencies.co.uk giving a brief description of your particular requirement and target rates in mind and I will be sure to alert you if this price becomes available.
To discuss the full currency service please contact 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Further gains against the Euro and USD this morning, rates have moved 3.5% against the Euro and 2.5% against the dollar in less than a week, is this the time to buy?
In what is a break from the recent norm, certainly since the turn of the year, the pound is finally finding some support with rates having rallied from a low of 1.137 to just shy of 1.18 against the single currency in a week, the trends have been similar against the US dollar moving from 1.485 to 1.52 in the same period. Regular readers of this website will have seen the coverage on Cyprus and this uncertainty is playing havoc with the Euro and US dollar, but this morning we may have also seen some signs that the UK economy could, all be it slowly, be on a path to recovery as the UK’s public sector net borrowing figures and retail sales figures were much better than expected. The government’s budget plans have been plagued by weak growth, but retail sales figures have suggested at least some temporary relief after a dismal January for retailers. Official figures increased month on month by 2.1% against the expected 0.5% showing the biggest monthly return since March 2012.
These figures will come as welcome news to many and could be the opportunity many Euro and US dollar buyers have been looking for. As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to take advantage of spikes as they can often be short lived. Our aim is do maximise our clients positions and to keep them up do date with market trends. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to hear more about the currency service we proved then I would be happy to discuss the service in full. We can offer you contracts ranging from standard spot and forwards to stop/loss and limit orders, we also have a rate alert service ensuring we will contact you when a particular rate becomes available.
Anyone looking at buying Euros and US dollars in the short term may wish to take stock of their current position as these rates may not hang around for too long. Of course the situation in Cyprus will continue to cause a great deal of uncertainty. To discuss the market and your individual requirement then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Pound continues mini resurgence against Euro and US dollar, will this continue?
Sterling exchange rates continued their mini revival breaching 1.16 level against the Euro for the first time in 2 weeks and gaining over three cents against the US dollar. Rates have retraced a touch this afternoon but still leaves the pounds gains against the single currency and US dollar at 1.5% in just over 24 hours. With market conditions so volatile and with the pound so out of favour since the start of the New Year these spikes have been few and far between and may represent a strong buy opportunity. Much of the movements have come about following comments made by Mervyn King the Governor of the Bank of England yesterday suggesting that the economy is on path to recovery and that he feels the pound has moved to a “properly valued exchange rate”. This has gone against the grain as King is usually very cautious about the UK economy, but may have caused an unexpected opportunity.
Is this the start of a recovery? For me I feel Sterling has been undervalued for a while and have been a little surprised at how far the pound has fallen in recent weeks. I personally think levels will stabilise and remain range bound between 1.15/16 for the next few weeks with cable (GBP/USD) at 1.50-1.52. For buyers this brings a little ray of sunshine to an otherwise very drab and dreary 2013, as for sellers the current levels must still be viewed as an opportunity – gains are still in excess of 7% on a basket of major currencies, a good return in anyone’s eyes.
As a specialist currency broker we have a number of tools available to take advantage of spikes as they can often be short lived. Our aim is do maximise our clients positions and to keep them up do date with market trends. Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like to hear more about the currency service we provide then I would be happy to discuss the service in full. We can offer you contracts ranging from standard spot and forwards to stop/loss and limit orders, we also have a rate alert service ensuring we will contact you when a particular rate becomes available.
Having worked in the industry for a number of years I know what a difference a fraction on the exchange can make. Whether your are buying that dream Spanish villa, importing a luxury car, settling an invoice or diversifying your portfolio then our currency service may well be of use to you. To find out more please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information.
