Category Archives: AUD

Pound Sterling forecast – Positive week against the Euro and New Zealand Dollar – Negative against the Dollar and Australian Dollar (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly mixed week against the majors, seeing a fresh two year high against the Euro and also gaining three cents against the New Zealand Dollar over the course of one night. On the flip side we saw exchange rates drop below 1.70 against the Dollar for the first time in a little while and also sub 1.80 against the AUD too.

Sterling data this week has not been too bad, however the Bank of England minutes still showed that members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) had still voted 9-0 for no change in interest rates however this did not dent the Pound too badly. European data released on Tuesday and Wednesday led to Euro weakness and we did actually hit a 25 month high to buy Euros with the Pound during this period.

The Dollar made a fight back after a prolonged period above 1.70 mainly due to good solid economic data surrounding jobs in the States and coupled with investors and speculators alike becoming increasingly worried about on-going political relations and turmoil around the world. Gold is also seen as a safer haven and priced in Dollars so this also helps the Dollar gain strength.

The gains against the New Zealand Dollar came shortly after an expected interest rate hike over in New Zealand – Usually an interest rate hike should give strength to a currency however this rate rise was widely expected and comments from the RBNZ that they were actually unhappy with the current value of the NZD and that its strength was unjustified , unsustainable and had the potential for a significant fall led to investors dropping the currency like a stone.

Finally, governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens also commented this week and has seemingly once again decided he is not so worried about the strength of AUD which gave the Australian Dollar a lift overnight, making it more expensive to buy and at one stage pushing it back below the 1.79 mark.

If you have a curency transfer to carry out either next week or in the coming weeks and months then it would make sense to get in touch with me directly as I can help you both in terms of achieving a great rate of exchange and to ensure the transfer is smooth and efficient. Please do feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to call you personally.

 

 

GBPEUR forecast – UK Retail figures and GDP forecasts

GBPEUR rates have again hit new highs this week, reaching fresh 2 year highs against the EURO and near 5 year high against the Dollar.  My personal view is that these levels are the top we will see this month with the peak either expected this morning on Retail figures being released or tomorrow with UK GDP figures.  Thereafter economic data which traditionally drives the markets is fairly thin as they are generally released at the beginning of the month with data on the previous month.  Longer term levels will probably revisit these levels through August but there will probably be less opportunity due to the August slow down over a majority of Europe.

September will then have more opportunity as we focus on the referendum in Scotland and speculation will probably build on when UK interest rates will rise.

Currently central bank prices are challenging 1.27.  Unfortunately the banks will not offer this level for you to trade and can be up to 6% off these levels adding a significant cost to your transfers. Here we get a lot closer and therefore provide a saving on every trade. Plus with pro-active service helping you time the trade the experience and therefore cost in generally reduced significantly.

Simply put if we could not save you money on your exchange we would not be in business. PLUS with awards given to us for both our service and rates of exchange you can be comfortable in the knowledge you will experience a professional service.

For more information, live prices or to register for our service contact the author STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

Will sterling keep up this current trajectory?

Tomorrow is UK Retail Sales and Friday is the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data. Both of these releases could easily spark volatility in the market underlining the importance of keeping up to date with the market. In the last few weeks sterling exchange rates have crept up notably against the Euro but we are at multi year highs against pretty much everything! Can sterling keep on this trajectory?

Well early indications seem to think so with recent poor borrowing economic data being ignored in anticipation of an interest rate at hike at some point in the future. As is so often the case with exchange rate it isn’t just which currency is the best, it is that others are very unpopular! Take the Euro for example, we may still see some QE (Quantitative Easing) in the future. This form of ‘printing money’ is very bad for the currency as by increasing the money supply it effectively dilutes the strength of the currency. The UK used QE many years ago and this is one of the reasons the pound dipped to almost parity with the Euro, imagine the detrimental effect QE in the Eurozone would have on GBPEUR rates!

If you have any need to buy large volumes of foreign exchange getting the best exchange rate is central to making the most of your money. The authors of this blog and I are extremely confident we can undercut other sources like banks and other currency brokers on exchange rates, plus also offer practical assistance in the timing and management of your payments. For a quick rundown of your situation and a comparison why not make contact? We can then have a quick chat at no cost or obligation and you can decide for yourself what is better! After all if you were entirely happy with your current situation you probably wouldn’t have read this far!

Jonathan Watson, jmw@currencies.co.uk

Bank Of England Minutes Released This Morning – Expect Sterling Volatility (Colm Gilhooly)

The latest Bank of England Minutes are published this morning at 9.30 and could be hugely important to the short term future of sterling exchange rates.  The BofE held interest rates this month despite calls in some quarters for them to start hiking interest rates.  Indeed even some of the members have themselves mentioned that the case for an interest rate hike is more balanced than previously suggesting they must now at least be considering when to hike.

However last month was a unanimous 9-0 in favour of holding interest rates, and if this morning shows the same then sterling could struggle as it would suggest a possible interest rate rise is still a way off yet.  On the other hand if the Minutes show one or more members have voted to hike, then we could see sterling rally further as the prospect of higher UK interest draws closer.

The Euro has wobbled again yesterday on the back of increasing European debt to GDP ratios, and I expect the single currency to remain under pressure in the run up to the next ECB decision where we will find out what the ECB plan to do (if anything) to combat low inflation and growth.  EU unemployment figures come out of the 31st July (a week Thursday) so again if these are not very impressive we could see the Euro slip even deeper.

It has broken below 1.35 against the USD and with the Fed announcement and jobs figures next week I think the Dollar could rally further should they take even a slightly less dovish stance Stateside.  The Aussie Dollar was once again riding up versus the Euro yesterday due to the European debt fears, and Glenn Stevens not mentioning the strength of the currency in his speech the other day.  Overnight Aussie CPI data was reasonably good and has helped the currency strengthen further.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to get a good exchange rate and some options about how best to approach it, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currenices.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

Sterling exchange rates may be in for a volatile few days to end off the week? (Daniel Wright)

Important Economic data still to come out this week

Following a very quiet start to the week for the Pound here are a few key pieces of economic data due out over the coming few days that may affect the value of Sterling against these major currencies.

The two key days for me may be the Bank of England meeting minutes tomorrow morning at 09:30am followed by BOE Governor Mark Carney speaking in the early afternoon and U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data due on Friday, also at 09:30am.

We are currently still very close to a two year high against the Euro and a nearly at a six year high against the Dollar so trading levels are still extremely attractive for anyone looking to buy either of these two currencies.

Last night we had Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speak and he has now once again spoken and confirmed that he is happy with the current monetary policy in Australia, seemingly changing his view that the AUD is too strong and giving the Australian Dollar some early morning strength.

Today – Reasonably quiet for economic data today with the main focus being on U.S inflation data which is due out at 13:30pm this afternoon. As with most U.S data this can have an effect on all major currencies as it does affect global attitude to risk.

Wednesday – Inflation data also starts the day off tomorrow with Australian having their turn this time. Australian inflation data is due out at 02:30am so could be an overnight market mover so if you have a requirement to buy or sell Australian Dollars in the near future it may be prudent to place a limit order or stop loss to either take advantage of a short spike or protect yourself from adverse market movement. Contact me for more details on how these options work.

Tomorrow morning does has the potential to be a big market mover although it has not been led to too much market volatility over the last few months. We have the Bank of England minutes out for the U.K which are from the last interest rate decision. The key will be if any members of the Bank of England have started voting in favour of an interest rate hike, for a long time now the vote has been all nine members of the monetary policy committee in favour of no change but with all the talk of interest rate changes coming closer will anyone have changed their mind?

In early afternoon Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney speaks at 12:24pm so be very aware that investors will be hanging off of his every word so Wednesday for me has real potential to be the most volatile of the week.

For those tracking the New Zealand Dollar we have the RBNZ Interest rate decision out at 22:00pm and a small hike in interest rates is expected, if this happens be cautious of a little NZD strength overnight, if they do not hike as expected then we could see the Pound gain a little back. Again a stop loss or limit order overnight may be a sensible approach.

Thursday  Thursday morning is fairly busy once again with a flurry of services and manufacturing data out for Europe throughout the morning from 8:00am until 9:00am followed by U.K Retail Sales data at 09:30am. Expectations are for a small rise in Retail Sales but as you are all aware these releases don’t always come out as expected.

Friday Once again 09:30am is the key for those following Sterling exchange rates as we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data out for the U.K at this time. GDP measures the amount the economy has grown or shrunk within a specific period of time. This can be one of the most important releases of the month an again expectations are for a minor increase year on year but no revision to quarter 2.

All in all a fairly busy few days, so if you have a currency transfer to carry out involving any major currency it is well worth making me aware of it or giving me a call so I can notify you of any large market movements or so that you can secure these fantastic exchange rates so that the market does not have a chance to drop back away again if data is not too great.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. You can email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you.

 

 

Big Week For The Pound Next Week (Colm Gilhooly)

It’s been a pretty quiet day today with very little data out of note except in Canada, where inflation and sales figures were slightly higher than forecast helping the Loonie claw back a little bit of ground against the pound from earlier trading, although rates are still pretty attractive to buyers.

To this end it would be worth looking into next week for the main data releases that may affect your currency purchase.

For the Aussie Dollar we have a speech by Glenn Stevens overnight Monday, followed by Inflation figures in the early hours of Wednesday.  The Aussie has also clawed back a bit of ground versus the pound compared with the last 48 hours however I expect the see-saw to continue in the short term until one or other central bank makes a decisive policy change.

For the US Dollar we have CPI data on Tuesday afternoon and Durable Goods orders on Friday- US data recently has been very disappointing so it will be interesting to see if this can turn at all.  At some point it must surely and force the Federal Reserve into a slightly more hawkish stance, but until it does Cable is offering a great buy.

It is a huge week for sterling next week as the pound made big gains recently particularly on the back of this weeks high inflation figures.  However the Bank of England Minutes are published on Wednesday so we will get to see whether any members did indeed vote to hike rate this month.  Last month was a unanimous 9-0 in favour of holding interest rates steady despite some calls and indicators to hike.  If it is the same on Wednesday it could suggest we are still a way off an interest rate rise and the pound may give up some of its recent gains.  However any members voting to hike could give sterling another boost.  We also have GDP for Quarter 2 due on Friday- if this shows the UK economy is still picking up then it will likely consolidate the pounds position and put it in line for further gains.

There is very little European data out next week so I expect the Euro to remain under pressure until the next ECB rate decision rolls around, as investors are nervous what the ECB may do.

Finally the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their latest rate decision on Wednesday evening.  The Kiwi has fallen lately as some feel calls for another rate hike may be wide of the mark so expect to see a bit of volatility here.

If you need to make a currency transfer and would like assistance to make sense of all the market information and how it may affect your currency purchase, feel free to email Colm at  cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work and how we can get you the best exchange rate.

Will the pounds positive trend continue? (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has started he day on a relatively quiet note with the only notable shift being against the Australian Dollar having lost nearly 1 cent between the high and low. Today is a quiet day in terms of any data and I would expect the pound to remain relatively stable against most majors.

Following yesterdays suspected shooting down of a Malaysian airline it is difficult to predict the impact this may have on the markets and may create some volatility as the events surrounding the tragedy unfold. Keep in contact with your broker for updates on the market.

Looking ahead and the main focus for me will be the Bank of England minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday next week. The report will give insight as to how the nine members of the MPC voted in relation to interest rates and will also give clues as to future monetary policy. What the market is looking for is clues as to when the bank is likely to raise interest rates with some analysts forecasting a rate hike during Q4 of this year. For me I still believe the bank will wait until 2015, but it is this speculation that has pushed the pound to a near two year high against the Euro and a six year high against the US dollar. For me I believe this trend is likely to continue and I would expect more value from the pound in the coming weeks.

To get further information on the currency service we provide and for assistance with your currency transfer then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Will Current GBP Trend Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have moved back through 1.26 on the exchange this week, moving the currency pair up to a two year high. It looked as though Sterling may come under pressure yesterday when UK employment figures were released, with average earnings coming in worse than expected. It quickly recovered however and with unemployment figures holding firm at 6.5%, it is likely the Pound will continue to find support around the current levels.

Looking ahead to the end of the trading week and there is little data of note for the UK. This morning we have some inflation data out for the Eurozone, which could prove to be a key market mover if figures come outside expectation.

GBP/USD rates continue to hold firm above 1.70, despite yesterday’s announcement by FED governor Janet Yellen that the US economy was improving. GBP/USD rates have been trading above 1.70 for some time now and every time the USD spikes and it seems pressure will be on this resistance level, it quickly runs out of steam.

GBP/AUD rates have moved back through 1.83 this week and close to a 3 month high. GBP has performed well against the AUD recently but as yet, we have not seen levels return to the four year highs witnessed at the turn of the year. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen in the short-term, even more so following the release of the latest Chinese GDP figures. These were released yesterday and showed an improvement from Q1, news which has boosted the AUD this morning and could help to push levels back below 1.82 on the exchange.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling has another positive day against most majors (Daniel Wright) Why did inflation data lead to Sterling strength?

The Pound has had a fairly good day on the market once again with a further small improvement against the Euro pushing the GBP/EUR exchange rate extremely close to a two year high which makes it an extremely tempting time to secure Euros for the purchase of property overseas or indeed for any business requirements.

I have had many clients this week decide to lock into their exchange rate on a forward contract to make sure they do not miss out on this current spike should the Pound drop away again and it is indeed turning into a very prudent approach, as many of those clients agreed to buy their property in Europe when the rates were a lot worse.

As an example, if you were buying €120,000 three weeks ago it would have cost you roughly £3,000  less now – This could pay for you to start furnishing your new holiday home or indeed pay for flights over there and back ten times over! To lock into a rate of exchange you only need to have a small deposit available so you do not even need the full availability of funds and you can lock in your rate for anything up to a year – Feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk for more information on how to take full advantage of this handy contract type and I will be happy to answer any questions or queries you may have, along with helping you book something out if you wish.

The reason we saw the main spike yesterday was all due to a climb in inflation. A way to combat high inflation is to raise interest rates and generally a hike in interest rates can be seen as positive to the currency concerned. With the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this high inflation level did spark investors to believe that rates may go up earlier than first thought.

Today we saw unemployment figures improve a little for the U.K to 6.5% however this was pretty much cancelled out by the fact that wage growth was a little worse than expectations  and the Bank of England have also stated they need to see wage growth out weight inflation for a period of time before they feel that the recovery is on top form and they really can start to move interest rates up so this was a minor setback.

We do not have a huge amount left to come out this week for the U.K however one release to watch out for, for anyone following the Euro we do have European inflation data out at 10:00am.

If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  I welcome all contact for bank to bank transfers however I am afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.

So just when will the UK raise interest rates?

Tomorrow is a range of UK data to beware of for any short term needs including the Bank of England Interest rate decision. Sterling rates are at such interesting levels compared to the last few years making some careful preparations seems to me sensible. Contact our trading floor directly on 01494 787 478 to speak with one of our team who can let you know of everything important that may move your rates.

We aim to ensure our clients are well informed this blog has served thousands of happy clients providing assistance with the timing of their exchange and a much better exchange rate than the high street banks and other sources of currency. We can undercut  other brokers and even if you feel you get a good deal and just want information, comparing with us too is recommended. Due to the unique way we source currency in the foreign exchange market we are able to improve on prices offered by other brokers and banks.

Sterling is at multi-year highs against most currencies and this is primarily related to the high expectation interest rates will rise sooner rather than expected. Even the Governor of the Bank of England is contributing to the unease with badly thought out comments causing 1-2% swings on sterling rates which as you can see from the table is significant. With such high expectations for sterling it is very easy to forget the long road to where current levels have found themselves.

For more information please email me Jonathan Watson directly jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

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