Category Archives: AUD

Will the Recent Sterling Recovery Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has found some much needed market support over recent days and the current trend continued during Wednesday trading, with GBP/EUR & GBP/USD rates improving.

The Pound spiked by over a cent against its EUR counterpart, following worse than expected Unemployment data from the Eurozone. The official figure of 10.1% immediately caused a EUR sell off, which inadvertently boosted Sterling’s value. With reports also surfacing this morning that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is chairing a Brexit brainstorming meeting at Chequers, we may find that developments surrounding our Brexit move forward quicker than many first thought. Whilst it is possible that article 50 will not be triggered for another two years or more, any solid indications of how we will facilitate it and the likely time-frame, should help to alleviate some of the current pressure on Sterling moving forward.

I still feel it is unlikely that the Pound will gain any major ground under current market conditions but we may now see GBP finding some sort of foothold after weeks of negative downturns. Personally I would be keen to protect my current position and not gamble on such an uncertain and volatile market.

There is no quick fix and it likely that the Pound will hit some type of glass ceiling for months and possibly years to come. Any clients holding out for GBP/EUR rates to recover above 1.30 and GBP/USD to hit 1.40 again this year are likely to be left disappointed.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling continues its recovery as UK growth estimates meet expectations, but will the recovery continue? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been quite a bullish week for the Pound this week as economic data releases have impressed and Sterling has gained a good few cents vs many other major currency pairs.

Towards the end of last week the UK’s Retail Sales Figures for July were better than expected, and this week the weak Pound has resulted in the UK’s Manufacturing Output reaching a 2 year high as people overseas are keen to pick up goods at low prices. These positive sets of data, coupled with today’s Gross Domestic Product estimates coming out as expected,  have boosted sentiment towards the Pound as this has been reflected within currency markets as the Pound has gained almost 3 cents vs the US Dollar, and almost 2 cents vs the Euro.

Those that plan to convert their Sterling into a foreign currency at a higher rate will of course be hoping that the Pound continues to climb, and whilst I think it may do, there are a number of risks to holding off so it may be an idea to make at least part of that trade at current levels with the hope of averaging up in future. This is an approach many of our clients are currently taking and we’re here to help by keeping them updated with what’s going on in the marketplace.

Those who plan to purchase Pounds, by converting their Euros,US Dollars or Aussie Dollars for example, may wish to get in contact and check whether our rates are better than your current providers/banks as whilst current levels are particularly favourable, a return to risky attitudes from investors is likely to drive up Sterling’s value, especially if economic data out of the UK continues to surprisingly impress.

Major economic announcements that could sway markets next week are Thursday’s Manufacturing Data which is expected to show an improvement, and then next Friday will be Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Data out of the US. If you would like to discuss these and how they can affect markets, do get in touch and I’ll be happy to explain.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency requirement you’re planning, in terms of the timings and getting the best rate of exchange available, feel free to contact me on jxw@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in directly to reception and ask for Joe on 01494 787 478.

How will Friday’s UK GDP Figures Affect Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has found some much needed support over the early part of the trading week, recovering ground against both the EUR & USD. The Pound has benefited from some improved economic data late last week, with Unemployment data and UK Retail Sales figures coming in better than expected.

This in turn boosted GBP/EUR rates, with the pair hitting 1.1784 at the high and bringing some much needed respite to those clients holding the Pound, following weeks of devaluation. These losses were born out of a complete lack of confidence in the UK economy, with investors risk appetite dissipated by the uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to exit the EU. This is and will remain to be the underlying reason behind Sterling recent demise, with the Bank of England (BoE) cementing the downfall with their recent interest rate cut. With the possibility of further monetary easing (QE) and/or another rate cut, we may see the situation get worse before it gets better.

GBP/USD rates have seen a similar trend, with the pair falling below 1.30 at the recent low. Despite an improvement above this threshold, I do anticipate a sustained recovery anytime soon, certainly not under current market conditions. The greenback has made huge strides since the turn of the year, in line with economic improvements in the US and despite the political battle between Donald Trump & Hilary Clinton heating up ahead of Novembers election, I do not expect a recovery back towards 1.40 until we at least have some clarity on when and how the British government are likely to facilitate our Brexit.

Once some of this uncertainty has been removed then the Pound has a better chance of recovering its losses but until then I would be looking to protect any short to medium-term Sterling positions, with further market volatility expected.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, you can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Could we have another Referendum?

Well well politicians are a right bunch aren’t they. Just as the UK economy was recovering following the worst financial crisis in living memory we have had the politicians calling this Referendum which has of course knocked confidence and no leaves us with plenty of uncertainty up ahead. It is far to early to be calling Brexit good or bad since we just don’t know what it is at present. For now the UK economy is ticking along nicely, it is growing, people have jobs and they are confident to be spending their hard earned cash as it has been a lovely summer. As I have repeatedly said however we cannot (unfortunately) rely on the weather to support the economy, still with the Olympic glory still fresh in everyone’s minds let us keep positive.

On the subject of Referendums we might yet have another one! Owen Smith the prospective Labour candidate has stated he will be looking to call another Referendum before invoking Article 50, putting the new deal to the test of a public vote. Owen Smith the potential future Labour leader has made this call as part of his campaign to be the new Labour leader. So far this is not wholly likely but the prospect remains.

If you have a transfer involving the pound the uncertainty is set to continue for many months and maybe years, making some plans in such uncertain times seems to me a very sensible option. To discuss further your options and the market please contact me Jonathan Watson on the form below or email me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the UK and the pound enjoy an Olympic boost?

The UK is basking in Olympic glory at present and shrugging off those Brexit blues. For now consumers are spending and the economy has a healthy unemployment picture. This good news is very much welcome and reminds us all of the power of hard work, determination and training. The Olympics will have helped raised the UK’s profile internationally and could help boost tourism particularly with the pound at such low levels. Measuring the true impact of all of this in an economic sense is actually very difficult and in my opinion it would be misplaced to be overly complacent about the future direction for the pound.

An important point to make is that whilst the weak pound is good for exports it is not overall a benefit for the UK since the UK as a net importer buys more from overseas than it sells. That means because we spend more overseas when the currency is weak it is overall a bad thing. That is not to say a weak pound doesn’t present opportunities, many businesses selling overseas will be enjoying the weaker pound and there have been some headline grabbing stories of UK companies being purchased at a discount because of the weak pound.

The key news for me is the business surveys since the Brexit vote, these are the key indicators because ultimately it is business that drives the economy forward. Business is the key barometer of what will happen next. Consumers will not keep spending when the weather turns and they are worried about their job, it will be business’ reaction to the the economy which will shape what happens next. With hiring down and confidence lower I can see the pound coming under further pressure in the coming weeks and month, any clients buying a foreign currency with the pound should not be overly complacent.

If you are buying or selling the pound exchange rates remain volatile and there are various upcoming events to help determine the next leg of direction on the pound. Brexit news is unlikely to develop quickly, indeed we are probably going to need to wait until 2017 to learn just what is happening next. In this time as confidence is sapped, so too sterling should fall.

If you have a transfer to consider making some firm plans in advance is sensible. If you are considering buying or selling the pound then understanding all of your options is key to mitigating the uncertainty. To learn more please fill in the form below or if you prefer a direct contact with me please email jmw@currencies.co.uk

What do we really think is going to happen next for the pound?

Unfortunately all the positive thinking in the world will not help move an exchange rate. You can try all manner of methods to try and alter your situation but unfortunately the market is impersonal and does not react for these reasons. Looking at the economic reality sterling has had a slightly better week although in my opinion this is against the grain of a continuing negative decline in the value of sterling. Let us look at the positive news so far this week which has helped the pound, is it indicative of a big rebound in the value of the pound, is it a sign that Brexit is nothing to worry about and everything is going to be okay? Let us drill down into the detail of the figures and make an assessment if two pieces of good news this week are going to be enough to turn the tide on a raft of negative indicators.

  • Positive Unemployment data. The data released only covered the period up until the vote. The claimant count reduction (people claiming benefits) fell in July but this is not something I would be drawing too much positivity for the UK from. We won’t know the full impact on Unemployment from the Brexit until October or even the New Year as the data is always 3 months behind. Plus it takes many months for workers to leave jobs or lay offs to occur so it might not be until well into 2017 until we know the true Unemployment picture. The fact remains all the economic data is showing big declines in business, this will cause problems down the line.
  • Excellent Retail Sales Figures. The data for July showed a huge boost in Retail activity much better than June. What makes Brits go out and spend money? Sunshine! The excellent weather which on some days was 9 degrees higher than the average for that period saw lots of money on extra food, drink and clothes as people socialised more and went out more. Can we rely on sunshine to drive the UK recovery? Well I wouldn’t be banking on it….

It is only 2 months since the vote and I believe there are still many skeletons finding their way into the cupboards of the UK economy. Misplaced positivity can be a very dangerous thing. I prefer a careful, measured and balanced assessment of the facts. The pound has risen this week and may yet spike a little further following some very tough weeks. But with so little really known about the political and economic impact following Brexit I feel that sterling will fall further in the remaining months of 2016. If you are buying or selling the pound and have a transfer to consider please fill in the form below and I will contact you to discuss further the market and your options. Alternatively you can email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk for a more personal service. I have nearly ten years experience working as a specialist currency broker for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokerages and would be delighted to hear from you and offer some assistance to help you get the most for your money.

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rates have remained fairly flat during Wednesday’s trading, with the latest UK unemployment rate coming out as expected. The official reading of 4.9% was likely factored into the current GBP exchange rates by investors and as such we saw very little movement on the exchange.

Sterling did however, receive a timely boost yesterday, with UK inflation data coming in above market expectation. Despite levels remaining relatively low and a long way from the government’s target of 2%, the official readings helped GBP gain some traction against the EUR, USD & AUD. With so much uncertainty surrounding the UK economy at present any positive readings are welcomed by those clients holding GBP, who have had to watch the Pound’s value disintegrate over recent weeks.

Inflation levels have been the cause of much debate and are seen as a key market trigger for investors. Given their relevance in terms of the health of the overall economy, this positive reading may help to alleviate some of the pressure that has been building on Sterling over recent weeks.  How the Bank of England (BoE) will look to counter any aggressive rises in inflation is yet to be debated but for now the small improvements seen are likely to give GBP some much needed market support.

Personally I am of the opinion that Sterling will find a foothold sooner rather than later and we should get some protection around the current levels. We still remain well above the lows of 2008 and whilst it is likely that the longer-term Brexit outlook will restrict any aggressive Sterling advances above 1.20, I don’t believe it is all doom & gloom as some analysts are predicting.

Any client holding GBP should be aware of the pitfalls they currently face and it may be wise to protect themselves against a negative market by utilising one of our forward contracts, which are in place for situations such as this. They can give you piece of mind during a turbulent period and allow clients to budget on their foreign property and asset purchases, helping to remove the fear of further market drops.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt. Alternatively, you can register your details through this blog or email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Will the pound continue to fall?

Sterling has been on the back foot ever since the Referendum and the big question is will this continue? Well in short I think the answer is yes! Quite frankly there is bound to be lots more bad news relating to this scenario, it has not even been two months since the Brexit vote and we are haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of what lies ahead. Markets do not like uncertainty and at present there is plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen to the UK both economically and politically. The economy is on the back foot with slides in growth, employment and business activity. All in all I would not be surprised to see the pound fall further touching fresh lows against all the major currencies. These include the US Dollar, the Euro, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. If you have a transfer involving the pound and these currencies preparing for further falls in the value of the pound seems the most sensible option.

Last week we heard news Theresa May might not invoke Article 50 until much later than planned, as explained above we are nowhere near knowing any firm details of what Brexit actually is and what it entails. It will lead to many months and years of waiting to understand exactly what is going between the relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner. As long as this uncertainty continues business and the public will be loathe to make any big financial decisions which will lead to the slowdown in the economy and rising Unemployment.

If you have to buy the pound now is a fantastic time to be considering all of your options and making some plans on the future. The market is likely to offer better deals for buying pounds which anyone with a currency transfer to consider should be taking on board. If you wish to learn more please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. This blog has helped thousands of people to save thousands of pounds through better information and a much better exchange rate than they thought possible. To learn more please email me or fill in the form – you have nothing to lose and lots to gain!

Sterling exchange rates suffer again this week – Where will the pound head next? (Daniel Wright)

So we have seen yet another poor week for the Pound against all major currencies, seeing Sterling exchange rates drop by over 2% against the Euro, 4% against the Australian Dollar and almost 2% against the U.S Dollar.

Those readers looking to sell foreign currency will have been watching the rate movements with a big smile on their face, the main question now is how long will the rate stick around at these levels??? Will the rate go lower or are we getting close the the Pound hitting its lowest point.

One point to note is that we have seen multi year lows against a number of currencies and at some point I would expect to see the rates bounce back ,the only issue is working out when that may happen.

August had been expected to be a fairly poor month for the Pound as we start to see the first sets of post brexit economic data. On top of this, the Bank of England also decide to throw a triple whammy of fiscal change into the market when announcing an interest rate cut, increase of QE and an addition to their funding for lending project – all last Thursday.

Since we had this announcement sterling has been slowly sinking and I do feel that it may suffer a little more before it does get better.

Next week we have inflation figures, Unemployment data and Retail Sales figures so be prepared for another interesting week ahead.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency exchange or one coming up in the future then I can help you with all aspects mentioned above.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K – You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form below and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the options available to you.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates to be decided abroad today (Joshua Privett)

Barring any curve-balls from the developing Brexit situation, those looking to buy Euros and/or Dollars will have to sit back and see what happens abroad to see how rates will be effected. Frankly, with the spotlight taken off the UK and it’s negative economic atmosphere, we may see some respite.

Inflation data for key individual Eurozone economies will be released, as well as the unemployment rate for some of the more struggling economies, such as Portugal.

We have already seen French industrial output figures showing a contraction for the third month in a row, despite the lifting of prominent striking taking place a few months ago.

Inflation has been a pain-point for the Eurozone for a number of years, and was the main reason why the Eurozone dropped their interest rates to 0% in a bid to encourage the healthier economic activity which comes from increased spending. Due to this I have little doubt that this data will continue to reflect poorly on the Eurozone as a whole, the only question is whether this is still old news? Will markets bat an eyelid at the confirmation of what was already known?

What may cause markets to move is that this mornings results will be used as an indication for Friday’s release of Eurozone GDP during the second Quarter of this year – the first such look at this data. This is a major market mover, and will also be the first look at how the run-up to the Brexit vote affected the Eurozone as well.

It is easy to forget just how much the news of the Brexit has affected the value of the Euro as well. There is a reason why GBP/EUR levels sit at 3 year lows whilst buying Dollar levels have collapsed to 31 year lows. This data will certainly be illuminating, and seems more likely than not to be assisting Eurozone buyers.

Little data of note will be released concerning the value of the US Dollar today, but anyone with a New Zealand Dollar requirement is set to see some very attractive buying levels tomorrow, with the heavy expectation of a rate cut there overnight.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Whilst the heaviest movements are not expected until the end of the week, there are a number of options to be explored with a currency exchange specialist ahead of such an event to allow you to ensure any tempting opportunities are seized.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for any considering buying foreign currency in the near future and are worried about potential falls later in the month, and as we enter September,

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss any upcoming requirements – whether that be business, or expected revenues from overseas property sales – and a brief conversation could save you thousands on your transfer. Please feel free to call 01494 787 478, and ask the reception team for Joshua to be put through to my line.

Or you can fill in the form below and I will get in touch with you as soon as possible.