Category Archives: AUD

Have you prepared for the Yes vote? Crazier things have happened….

The pound looks likely to continue to rise as the outcome of the referendum is priced in more heavily to be a No vote. Investors are betting that it will indeed be a No vote and this should cause GBP strength. I personally feel a Yes vote is being discounted far too easily…

I think we are looking at greater chance of a Yes vote for the following reasons

- Demographics of the people being polled. I think naturally the more affluent Scots will be the ones most likely to respond to the polls. The Yes voters are less likely to care about the economic arguments and favour the Yes vote for Nationalistic and emotive reasons. I

-  The ‘Braveheart’ factor. Once put in the booth and owing to the way the question is framed will many a Scot feel inclined to support their Scottish heritage or the less understood British roots?

Some reports have factored the losses for sterling at 10% if it is a Yes vote. I personally would expect around 5% losses if we see the Yes vote but with a further decline longer term once the vote has been digested. Sterling is favoured because they expect the UK to raise rates next year, losing Scotland may lead to more QE and we could be at 1.15 on GBPEUR by Christmas, 1.50 on GBPUSD.

I think the Yes vote is being too heavily discounted and suggest anyone considering making a currency exchange in the coming weeks and months utilise a Stop / Loss and Limit order. Simply put this guarantees you wont lose more than you need and if it spikes higher you get the better rates.

To discuss strategies to maximise your exchange rate please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a specialist foreign exchange broker in the UK assisting clients all over the world manage their FX strategy.

Market volatility set to continue in the run up to the Scottish Independence vote on the 18th (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have found some support today as the latest poll for the Scottish independence vote suggested the vote for no was creeping ahead of the yes camp. This volatility is set to continue in the run up to the vote on the 18th.

With so much focus on this vote it is easy to forget the important data releases that are still scheduled. Tomorrow’s data is focused mainly on the Euro Zone and US with employment figures and industrial production data released by Eurostat at 10:00 tomorrow morning, followed by the important US retail sales data state side at 13:30.

Retails sales data is expected to show a good improvement and should in theory lend support to the greenback. It is important to keep an eye on all data sets as it is very easy to simply focus on one area. Of course the Scottish referendum vote is the main driver for sterling currently but should you like an overview of other important releases and the potential impact they might have on your currency transfer then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

AUD

Following the pounds losses earlier this week (due to Sundays poll suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was taking the lead in the Scottish referendum) the pound has rebounded five cents or nearly 3% since Monday. The move came about as the latest opinion poll puts the ‘no’ vote at 53%  - for me the vote is likely to be a no and it is this that I believe will lend more support to sterling and push levels back though the 1.80 level. For this reasons should you be selling AUD then current rates should still look like an opportunity.

Overnight the Australian unemployment data fell to 6.1% from 6.4% but did little to affect the AUD exchange rate suggesting the current market is dominated by the movement of sterling. This volatility is set to continue for the next week until the vote passes on the 18th.

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478. To help you make the most of your currency it is important you get as much information as possible. Our market knowledge is available for any client and we are happy to assist with any bank to bank money exchange not matter how big or small. For more information please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Scottish referendum still holding Sterling back – Pound exchange rates remain volatile ahead of key vote (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a shaky few weeks against most major currencies mainly due down to the current saga surrounding the Scottish referendum and what we may see following it.

We currently have a huge amount of uncertainty both surrounding the U.K economy and indeed politically as long as we are still unsure about which way this decision will swing. Personally I still feel we will see a no vote and this may well bring certainty back to the market along with strength back to the Pound.

For those people looking to sell foreign currency to buy Sterling this does really bring a huge temptation to take advantage of current levels and to look at securing a level fairly soon, of course there is the option of taking the gamble and seeing if either the result is Yes for Scotland which may bring further Sterling weakness or indeed if the no vote does weaken away the Pound further.

The problem with a situation like this is that it is not very easy to predict at all therefore you just don’t know exactly what may happen, the reason a yes vote could seriously knock Sterling is because it will throw up all sorts of complications with fiscal policies, we won’t even know if Scotland will take the Pound or be allowed to and political uncertainty will be rife.

This morning the Pound has taken another bashing as it is emerging that the Yes vote may have taken a further lead therefore Sterling has dropped a little further.

If you are concerned about what the next week or so may bring and you wish to maximise your rate of exchange then it is key that you have an experienced currency broker on your side. I can assist clients with requirements ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound transactions and always welcome new enquiries. The company I work for has also won numerous awards for both our rate of exchange and customer service. All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

 

GBPEUR update – Scottish vote and ECB policy change – Why and forecasts

Sterling levels have been volatile this week with some of the largest swings that we have seen this year. At the beginning of the week we have a YOUGOV poll highlighting the uncertainty created due to the Scottish vote in lass that 2 weeks’ time now.  This saw the value of the Pound fall significantly by over 1 ½ cents in 24 hours, adding a significant cost to any purchase for people.  Following that we have had the European surprise the market by introducing new policy to tackle the climbing inflation across the Eurozone.  This was not really expected until next month as the Europeans need time to agree any significant change. QE was expected later this year but Mario, the head of the bank, did not have the committee behind him to make that change so went down another path. Interest rates were lowered to the lowest levels on record, the overnight base rate on deposits was decreased in an effort to get the banks to lean outwards and he importantly signed off on buying more debts. The last element was really the game changer, the Eurozone has managed to decrease its deficit by nearly €80 billion euros over the last few years and he hinted that these gains could be lost in an effort to create growth. So really he suggested he will spend upwards of €80 billion to try and create growth.  All rather scary and a desperate call to action by the bank to stop deflation across the 14 member states. You can correctly imagine that this was really EURO negative meaning we end the week close to where we started it.

These swings really highlight the importance on timing and how expensive it can be to simply ignore this.  For example I have helped a number of clients move money over this volatile time and compared the worst and the time we traded they saved over €8,000.  The equivalent to 3 months wages of the average Brit, it takes a long time to earn, pay tax and save that amount of money so respecting this timing tool is in my opinion invaluable.

The next question is if you have not traded when will be the best time to do so?

Well there is still a host of data due this month giving opportunities. I think however the general trend will be negative, the uncertainty for Sterling’s prices moving forward with the Scottish vote I think will take centre stage. So if you have money to transfer in the next few weeks or months you will need to make a decision based on your thoughts if they leave the UK or not. If they do, which I admit seems unlikely it could significantly change the market price by tens of cents. If they stay I am hopeful that the losses we see in the run up will be recovered over time.

If you want to move beforehand to avoid the risk, or perhaps you plan to do some to limit your exposure, we have UK data on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

Feel free to get in contact if you would like more personal information or if you would like some views on what to do in your particular situation.

I can be contacted directly on email – hse@currencies.co.uk

Have a great weekend.

Sterling falls as the Pound falls out of fashion due to Scottish referendum polls easing closer – Weakness for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A quick update from me to let you know that Sterling has been falling for the past 24 hours, following news from the polls over in Scotland that the referendum is currently a lot closer than had been thought. The reason this has led to the Pound dropping is because it has now cast a grey cloud over the U.K both in terms of economic and political uncertainty – Both factors that can have quite an impact on the strength of a particular currency.

With the referendum due on the 18th September we may we be set for an extremely volatile few weeks for Sterling so it is imperative that if you have the requirement to either buy or sell foreign currency in the coming weeks or indeed months then you should let me know exactly what your need will be. We have many tools here designed to assist you with getting the most out of your money ranging from being your eyes and ears on the market and informing you of movements either in your favour or against you, to forward contracts, limits orders and stop losses.

GBPEUR

Sterling is actually trading almost 10% higher now against the Euro than it had been last summer (see graph) so if you are in the process of buying a property in Europe even with the drop exchange rates are still extremely favourable. We have a couple of key economic data releases still to come out this week with the Bank of England interest rate decision tomorrow at 12:00pm, the European Central Bank interest rate decision at 12:45pm and the ECB press conference from 13:30pm onwards. The ECB press conference can actually lead to an extremely volatile period for the Euro, and the main focus will be on whether or not they do decide to take any action with QE (Quantitative Easing).

Even the mere mention of it may weaken the Euro slightly but of course beware that if they rule it out in the short term then the Euro may strengthen further. Finally on Friday at 13:30pm we have Non-Farm Payroll data over in America. This release can have an effect on all major currencies as it can change global attitude to risk so no matter what your need it is well worth having an eye on the market on Friday afternoon.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future. This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity. I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange.

IF YOU ARE RECEIVING THESE REPORTS AND FIND THEM OF USE THEN WHY NOT CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR A FREE, NO OBLIGATION TRADING FACILITY TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH YOU CAN SAVE OVER YOUR BANK AND CURRENT BROKER. IT TAKES JUST TWO MINUTES TO COMPLETE AND MAY SAVE YOU £1000s!

Flat week for Sterling so far with little economic data out – What does the rest of the week hold? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly slow start to the week against all major currencies, as we have seen very little in the way of economic data released leading towards the end of the month.

We do have a few points of note later on in the week mainly concerning Europe, Canada and America.

Swiss employment figures are however due at 08:15am tomorrow morning which is one point of note for anyone following the Swiss Franc.

Shortly after that we have German unemployment figures at 08:55am which although is a fairly important release however it appears no change in unemployment rates is expected but any differential to the expectation of 6.7% could lead to a volatile morning for the Euro.

later on in the day at 13:30pm we do have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show growth over in the states during a specific period and can actual lead to market volatility for all major currencies as it may have an effect on global attitude to risk.

Friday we round the week off for the Euro with European inflation and employment  figures with year on year inflation expected to come out at 0.8%   and unemployment to remain at 11.5% (much worse than that of the U.K and US).

Canada release their GDP figures later on in the afternoon at 13:30pm and one thing to be fairly wary of is month end flows which we do tend to see fairly often on the last day of the month. This can cause volatility for all major currencies in any direction so Friday is a good day to ensure you have someone watching the market for you.

If you do not currently use a currency broker or you feel you could be getting a little more out of the broker you currently use in terms of exchange rate and service then it may be prudent to contact me directly.

I pride myself on keeping clients fully up to date with market movements and our exchange rates have won numerous awards so I would be surprised if I couldn’t save you money too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the service and quote you if you wish.

Can we save you money and beat your current quote for currency exchange? Why not try us out, I would be surprised if I cannot beat any bank or brokerage rate which means more money in your pocket (Daniel Wright)

I have had thousands of clients contact me through this site over the past five years and almost every single one has ended up making a saving using the company I work for over their current provider.

When it comes to an online platform for example, generally I would steer clear of using those as although they are fairly convenient, you have nobody working on the rate for you therefore tend to find you aren’t getting the best exchange rate you can.

Also, if you have been using a broker for many years then in my experience, like with anything in life it pays dividends to get a comparison once in a while even if you are fairly comfortable as it is highly unlikely that your exchange rate will be as sharp as it possibly can be.

The beauty of our service is that we are not tied to a particular margin therefore it means that there should be no reason why I can’t make sure I save you enough money to make sure it is worth your while using us, if I can’t then I will be totally honest and tell you to carry on with your current provider – For two minutes of your time getting in touch there really is nothing to lose.

I have clients ranging from small companies buying stock from China to larger companies millions of  Pounds overseas regularly along with private clients sending regular payments over for mortgage payments to premier league footballers buying a villa in Spain.

Feel free to email  me (Daniel Wright) today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your needs and a contact number and I will contact you straight away to let you know what I can offer and how the service works. We have won numerous national awards for our exchange rates and level of customer service so if you have found the information on this site of use so far it would be well worth you getting in touch.

Are you placing too high an expectation on sterling exchange rates rising?

So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.

I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.

Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!

For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

 

Bank Of England Minutes Show Mixed View On Interest Rates 7-2; Sterling Rallies (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound has been under pressure since last weeks Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report whereby the prospect of an interest rate hike was pushed back as predicted.  This was reinforced by yesterday’s fall in inflation from 1.9% to 1.6% (the figure had been expected at 1.8%), so it would suggest inflation is not a concern for the moment that would require an interest rate hike to curb it.

However the Bank of England Minutes just published showed a split of 7-2 in favour of holding rates, and sterling has rallied back this morning.  The news still suggests we are a way off a hike as it will take 5 members to approve it, however it does make it a bit more likely than it was prior to this announcement.  I still think we need a consistent period of positive data to merit an interest rate hike and expect this to occur in early 2015, so I wouldn’t expect sterling to rocket up any time soon  This news is more likely to simply provide sterling some support and relief from the sell off over the previous week rather than recover all the losses since the end of July.

Whilst Carney has come under fire in the media for flip-flopping on when interest rates may go up, however I think some people are missing the point.  It isn’t so much when rates will rise that he is focussing on but the fact that increases will be small and measured  ie people and businesses can make longer term investment plans on the back of this rather than worrying that borrowing costs might shoot up 2% in a year and risk a panic or another bust!

There are still areas of concern for the pound including the deficit (let’s see how Public Borrowing comes out on Thursday), and the Scottish Referendum.  Whilst I do not expect Scotland to vote yes, I think this issue needs to be resolved to remove uncertainty hanging over sterling.  To this end I think current levels for the pound represent pretty good value against the Euro, Kiwi, and Aussie for now and would be tempted to buy.  Dollar buyers may want to see what comes out of the FOMC Minutes this evening before making a decision.  If you would like help with a currency transfer or find out what exchange rate we can offer, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – Economic data out the first few days this week and how it may move exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A very slow start to the week for Sterling today with very little economic data or news for the markets to move off.

This will more than likely be the calm before the storm this week though as there is plenty of data for investors and speculators alike to get their teeth into which will no doubt cause quite a lot of volatility for most major currencies.

Tonight - Overnight we see the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) inflation expectations, out at 02:30am and 04:00am respecively. RBA Governor Stevens has seemingly turned a corner lately with his comments on the strength of the Australian Dollar and appears to be a little happier with the way things are going, leading to the Australian Dollar gaining some strength back against the Pound and knocking the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.80. Stevens is also due to speak on 00:30 Tuesday night as well.

Tomorrow – Tomorrow morning we see a key inflation release from the U.K which could easily lead to a bumpy ride for Sterling followers during the course of tomorrow morning. Inflation had beejn at 1.9% which is just about below the Government target of 2% so any minor alterations to this, especailly to the upside could give the Pound a morning boost, as one way to lower would be to raise interest rates, so a figure of 2% or above may lead to a little speculation of a rate hike coming a little closer. Of course, comments from the Governor of the Bank of England last week may well cut this potential out.

Later in the day it is the turn of the States for their inflation data, interstingly also expected to come out at 1.9% so if you have an interest in the Dollar be sure to keep a watchful eye on the market shortly after 13:30pm – Or why not email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I can monitor things on your behalf.

Wednesday – Wednesday morning we have the Bank of  England minutes from the last BOE interest rate decision. No major expectations from this one however it does really have the potential to throw up a surprise or two and news that any of the 9 members of the Bank of England now are voting in favour of an interest rate hike may give also Sterling a shift up in the right direction.

Later in the evening we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) minutes, again very similar to the BOE minutes seen a little earlier on this will show how the Fed voted in terms of rate movements and what they discussed at the last interest rate decision, last time around we saw one memebr of the Fed vote in favour of a rate hike which did give the Dollar a little boost.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out and you want to achieve the very best rates of exchange either for your company or a personal transaction, along with highly valuable market knowledge then why not contact me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Even if you currently use another broker you may be surprised at how much you can save by getting in touch as a small improvement on an exchange rate can make a big difference to you.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

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