Category Archives: AUD
Sterling got a bit of a shot in the arm following service sector PMI this morning, as although the figure was slightly lower than last month, it will still very good. The news suggests that the largest part of the UK economy is still on the right track so I am not unduly worried about any big losses for the pound in the near future, and whilst we do have the Bank of England decision tomorrow I feel this will be somewhat of a non-event. With no data of note in the next couple of days for the UK it will largely depend on the data releases for other currencies so what should we be looking out for?
Overnight we have retail figures for Australia. In the last couple of days we have had very clear guidance from the governor of the RBA that further changes in interest rates are unlikely and my view has been that current levels on GBP AUD are excellent buying opportunities because I don’t see the pound surging up (as the BofE aren’t going to increase any time soon), or the Aussie Dollar tumbling again (as the RBA are now on hold). Aussie GDP for Q4 has been revised up, so if retail figures are good I think the AUD will gradually settle against the pound this week. We do have Chinese data out over the weekend, and jobs are still a big area of concern in Australia, but I think anyone holding off for another big surge in the Aussie may be disappointed.
Today we have seen good service data and retail figures for Europe and following Friday’s better than expected inflation data it is still unclear what Mario Draghi may say at the ECB press conference tomorrow afternoon. Recently he has expressed concern that the longer inflation remains at a low level, the harder it will be to turn around, so there is still an element of risk that the ECB may feel the need to act. I think it is unlikely tomorrow but I am expecting a volatile day during the course of the press conference as journalists probe for any hint of a future policy change. We have seen some Euro weakness this afternoon but anyone buying or selling Euros in the near future should be on red alert tomorrow just in case.
The US Dollar still remains very weak as the Fed remain cautious about the pace of tapering QE and Non Manufacturing and employment figures this afternoon were on the weaker side of forecasts, although recent bad weather has a lot to answer for. However Friday is the next key date with the release of the non-farm payroll figures. The creation of new jobs is one of the big measures that the Fed are using to determine an appropriate monetary policy, and so far the rate of improvement has been modest. With the issue over energy costs caused by the crisis in the Ukraine, and the ever present debt debate in the US, there are a lot of potential banana skins for the Dollar, but I feel it is only a matter of time before the economy stateside picks up enough to increase the rate of tapering, and when we get closer to the pricing in of a US interest rate hike (probably hike late next year in my view) then USD EUR rates should move back under 1.35, and sterling slip back to the early 1.60′s.
The Bank of Canada left rates on hold today and pretty much said growth in Canada had been a bit better than expected, although was broadly in line with forecasts, and inflation was likely to be below target for some time. They did acknowledge there was a downside risk to inflation which had led some to believe the BOC would cut rates, and this threat hasnt been completely lifted but I would say it is now unlikely as long as Canada and the US keep growing. Canadian jobs figures also come out on Friday, but if anyone was hoping for another sharp weakening of the GBP CAD rate then they may be out of luck in the near term- worth buying at current levels in my view.
The Kiwi has fought back a little against the pound in the last week and a combination of growth forecasts and increasing inflation concerns have allowed the NZD to strengthen as New Zealand is the main economy expected to raise interest rates at some point later this year. With dairy exporter Frontera making huge strides in China there seems little sign of the Kiwi economy waning, I think the only warnings for the Kiwi would be a sudden downturn in Chinese demand , or a huge increase in the pace of US tapering. To this end keep a close eye on this weekend’s Chinese CPI and the US jobs data on Friday. Snap up buys over NZD$2 in my view.
If you need to make a currency transfer and would like help with how to get the best exchange rate then please feel free to email Colm at firstname.lastname@example.org or call 01494 787 478 as I would be more than happy to explain how our services work completely free of charge and with no obligation on your part. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sterling exchange rates slipped yesterday on softer construction data. Although still experiencing expansion it slipped from 64.6 to 62.6 in January and house building grew at its slowest pace in four months. The real test will be the impact these figures might have on GDP data, and this could well give a slight correction to the pound. Looking at data today we have UK PMI data for February for the services sector. This is also expected to show a small decline month on month and does pose a small risk for the pound this morning, this is scheduled for release at 09:30.
Looking at the Euro – EU GDP data is released this morning at 10:00. Figures will be the final revision of Q4 2013 and expected to show an increase from 0.1% to 0.3%, something that could lend support to the Euro this morning. Retail sales are also due for release with an improvement from a negative 1.6% to a positive 0.8%
Across the pond cable rates (GBP/USD) have settled around the 1.67 level. Today we have the FED beige book which will give a report on the current US situation including business sentiment and overall economic growth. A positive report could lend support to the greenback in anticipation of Fridays important jobs data. Friday will see non-farm payroll figures at 13:30 and with a positive reading expected (although forecasted figures are often way off the mark) look for the dollar to have a strong end to the weak.
Finally looking towards the Australian Dollar. This morning’s GDP data came in better than expected and has seen the Aussie push back into the 1.85 territory. I still feel any strength for the Aussie should be seen as an opportunity for those selling AUD as I still believe the currency is set to have a tough time throughout the course of the year. Yes this morning’s figures were positive but the RBA governor stated that the dollar is still high by historical standards suggesting the central bank is still not comfortable with the position of the AUD. Anyone buying AUD I believe will find more value in the coming weeks.
Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like to discuss the current market trends and the timing of your transfer then please get in touch. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have multiple contracts to help our clients maximize their exchange. To find out more information on the full currency service we provide please email Mike at email@example.com
Australia leave interest rates on hold – Tension still apparent in Ukraine – A little construction data for the U.K to set the scene for the day for Sterling (Daniel Wright)
Last night Australia left their interest rates on hold at 2.5% which was expected and this has led to the Australian Dollar holding fairly steady in trading overnight and this morning.
Personally I feel any Australian Dollar movement in the coming days will be based on two factors – GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures tonight and the ongoing situation between Russia and the Ukraine. Should things really start to get bad over there then global attitude to risk will no doubt be affected and this could lead to investors and speculators starting to drop the ‘riskier’ currencies like a stone which may lead to Australian Dollar weakness.
This morning we have the release of Construction data for the U.K which could be the first good indication as to how much the dire weather conditions have actually impacted on the economy.
The rest of the trading day is looking fairly quiet so depending on what we see from this release, this may set the scene for the rest of the day for the Pound assuming no major surprises crop up… which you can never rule out with all that is going on globally right now.
As mentioned in my post yesterday the week really starts to hot up tomorrow so if you are looking to carry out a currency transaction involving wither buying or selling the Pound then it may be prudent to contact me directly as I can help you both with timing your transfer and getting a better rate than your bank or current broker when you do decide to book out your currency.
To get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly then feel free to email me on firstname.lastname@example.org with a description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.
Good morning to all of our regular readers, we have a fairly busy week ahead for Sterling as we enter into March. on top of this, the current situation in the Ukraine is starting to impact on global attitude to risk which is starting to weaken currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
This morning saw mortgage approvals data out for the U.K and we had the best figures we have seen since November 2007 which has given the Pound a minor boost to start off the week. Sterling could well remain supported throughout the day as there is little else out for the U.K today however do be aware of head of the ECB (European Central Bank) Mario Draghi speaking at 14:00pm and some economic data for the States throughout the afternoons trading.
Overnight tonight we have the Australian interest rate decision and statement which could lead to a volatile evening for Australian Dollar exchange rates. The rest of Tuesday is again fairly quiet on the economic data front so unless any surprises crop up i would expect a fairly flat trading day however followers of the AUD should once again be wary that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) or growth figures are released overnight too.
Wednesday is when the week really starts to hot up, starting off with a flurry of data for Europe including growth figures and PMI at around 10:00am along with the inflation report hearings for the U.K at exactly the same time. Later on in the afternoon has the potential to be of interest for those looking buy or sell Canadian Dollars as we have the Canadian Interest rate decision at 15:00pm – Although no change in rates is expected all eyes will be on this release and the statement that comes with it. To round the afternoon off we have manufacturing data out for the States, also at 15:00pm and the Federal Reserve beige book out at 19:00pm which could lead to a little USD volatility.
Thursday we have interest rate decisions for both the U.K and Europe at 12:00 and 12:45pm respectively so watch out for any surprises cropping up during this period, more important for Sterling/Euro exchange rates on Thursday will be the speech and press conference by head of the European Central Bank at 13:30pm which can create some short, sharp buying and selling opportunities… if you are looking to buy or sell Euros this week and you would like to be made aware of an opportunity that arises then feel free to email me directly with a brief description of what you are looking to do on email@example.com and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally.
Friday focus turns to Switzerland, Canada and the States with a flurry of Swiss data out early in the morning, Canadian unemployment figures out early afternoon and the more often than not volatile data rel;ease of Non Farm Payrolls for the States at 13:30pm.
Non Farm payrolls and have an effect on all major currencies as not only can predictions be way out but it also affects global attitude to risk so watch out for this at the end of the week.
I personally work for a currency exchange brokerage which has won numerous awards for our rates of exchange and customer service, we are regulated by the FCA (formerly FSA) and we pride ourselves on getting better rates than not only the banks but our competition too. If you find my website of interest then feel free to email me directly with any requirements you have and i will not just price match but will make sure you get a saving if I can achieve it for you, I have helped thousands of clients save money over their current broker over the past few years and I look forward to helping you too – All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will contact you personally.
Sterling has had a solid day to end the week against the Australian Dollar and US dollar but posted heavy losses against the Euro. The pounds losses against the Euro cam about following better than forecast inflation figures. Since reaching a one year high of 1.2270 in January, the pound has since struggled to keep consistent momentum against the single currency remaining range bound between 1.20-1.22 throughout the course of February. Again this pattern has continued with levels testing 1.22 this morning before falling below 1.21.
Recently deflation has been a major concern for Europe. This is decrease in the general price level of goods and services and is viewed as real concern in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral. This has been putting pressure on the Euro, however with this morning figures showing inflation levels had not fallen at the pace many had expected has taken some of the pressure off Draghi and the ECB. If the figures had been weaker it may have left Draghi with little option but to cut interest rates, however this scenario is now less likely and hence the stronger showing for the Euro.
Looking at the USD, todays GDP release was as expected falling from 2% to 1.3% month on month. This along with Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday has pushed cable (GBP/USD) though 1.67 and just a cent below a four year high. Long term I believe the dollar will find support and would look for a push back towards 1.60. It will take a little time for Yellen to impose herself and a continuation of the FED’s approach on QE should lend support to the greenback long term. For anyone buying US dollars the current market is showing some value.
Should you have an upcoming bank to bank money exchange to arrange and you would like assistance with your transfer then please get in touch. When making your decision about the timing of your transfer it is best to get as much information as possible. To find out more about the currency service we provide and the various contracts we can offer then please get in touch on 01494 787478. Alternatively email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and I will happily get in touch to run through your options and to discuss the current market trends. Email Mike at email@example.com
Sterling exchange rates at fantastic levels for buying foreign currency – Will these rates last? (Daniel Wright)
GBP-EUR rates closing in on 12 month high once again
GBP-USD rates near to a 4 and a half year high
GBP-CAD rates near 5 year high
GBP-AUD Near 4 year high
Great time to buy!
Sterling exchange rates are currently at great buying levels compared to what we saw available throughout the course of 2013 as shown above!
We have an exciting year ahead with plenty going on in the market and as always I shall endeavor to keep you all full up to date with all the action.
This week has been fairly quiet on the economic data front, and exchange rates have been fairly flat.
Next week brings the start of March and what this means is that we will start to see the releases of economic data from February. One thing to really bear in mind is that throughout most of February parts of the U.K were almost at a standstill – With terrible flooding virtually shutting down entire towns and villages, not to mention seriously affecting transport links.
In my opinion this must have really weighed heavily on the economy and it could start to show in the coming weeks. Of course the U.K has been on the charge of late in terms of economic data so a slight halt in progress could easily push Sterling down a little again.
Of course you never really know just what is coming next for the Pound as many of you will be well aware, but this is certainly a potential point to take on board if you are looking to buy foreign currency in the coming weeks.
If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.
This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.
I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. All you need to do is email me directly on firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you.
Sterling has had a fairly flat week across the board and has struggled to breach rates of 1.22 against the Euro, 1.67 against the US Dollar and 1.86 against the AUD. The rates have been fairly flat due to not a great deal happening of a positive note for the UK economy. We had the GDP figures out this morning and the ONS showed that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2013. This was unchanged from the previous estimate. However the estimate for growth in 2014 as a whole was cut down to 1.8% from 1.9%. These figures have stopped sterling exchange rates really pushing on.
Against the Euro I would expect to see the pound rise over the next two trading days as there is a lot of data out from Germany which could assist a spike for the pound. We have their unemployment figures out tomorrow and then their inflation figures on Friday. If inflation continues to fall this will heap pressure on the Euro and will make things worse for Euro sellers. If you are buying the Euro then trading on spikes in the market may well be the way to go to capitalise on the favorable movement.
If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at email@example.com
Sterling values have been under a little pressure through the course of February following a much better month in January. The reason for this slight fall is that economic data is published for the previse month and compared to the month before that. So this month we have seen January’s data and the market has compared this to December which was boosted by the Christmas period. As a result Januarys data looked poorer resulting in the value of Sterling being pulled down slightly. This has been the reason for a majority of the down days for Sterling this month. The last of these important data releases comes this morning when the last revision of Q4 2013 UK GDP figures are released. This is expected to see a fall compared to previous estimates which in turn could make the Pound fall in value within the next hour. As a result if you are trading this week it may be prudent to move beforehand.
If however you have weeks to time you trade it may be prudent to wait, the reason for this is because the medium and long term trend for Sterling remains positive. Even though the rate at which the UK economy has been growing is expected to have slowed it is still miles ahead of the Europeans and the US. Along with that it remains very likely that the Bank of England will be the first to raise interest rates compared to the EU and the FED. This is boosted demand for the Pound and with this additional levels of investment is resulting in the value of the Pound to go up. The Europeans are also expected to release some new policies at their next meeting a week tomorrow in an effort to tackle their falling inflation. This again could weaken the euro meaning we can secure euros at a better price.
It is the above information that can make a huge difference on your currency transfer and again goes to show the importance and indeed benefit of using a currency broker for any currency transfer. For example this week so far timing a trade of £1000,000 buying USD when timed correctly could have made you an additional $4,200. For more information feel free to contact myself Steve Eakins via email at firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling the number on this page asking for myself. Medium and long term trends remain positive for GBP holders however timing a trade over a short period can also add additional euros to your purchase.
Currently sterling is well supported largely due to the strong likelihood of the UK raising interest rates next year. Investors are taking up positions on sterling in anticipation of better returns in the future. 80% of currency transactions are speculative and whilst this is not a topic we deal in for clients , it is a topic that is extremely relevant in determining future market movements for our clients.
Longer term sterling appears bound to increase significantly as the prospect of ultra low interest rates becomes the past. The pound has been flirting with 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis which when you consider interest rates have been at rock bottom for 5 years makes sense.
Since we won’t actually see any actual hike for some time there is certainly a good chance of more GBP weakness but it will be in pockets and not reflective of a greater downward trend. If you are going to need to purchase the pound in the future moving sooner is I believe the best course of action. Please contact me directly for assistance in sourcing the best rates and the optimum peaks to trade on. I assure you of being able to beat the banks and currency brokerages.
Many of my clients selling say Euros and Dollars after a property sale are quibbling over the fact they are trading at multi year lows. I wholly sympathise with these clients because when you do the calculation on the losses selling six figure sums in the last year they are substantial. But if you look further back say at the 10 year and 5 year figures you will see current rates are not so bad.
Take Mr Smith in France for example, who may have purchased there when rates were say 1.50. Imagine buying a 200,000 Euro property at 1.50. This would have cost you 133333.33 GBP. Fast forward ten years and unfortunately he has had to sell to come back to the UK and had to take a hit on the price. He had to sell for 175,000 Euros and was not happy at having lost 25,000 on the price. However he managed to get 1.20 on the rate which means his 175,000 Euros are actually worth 145833.33 GBP. Suddenly it is not such a bad deal and when he considers all the fun times he had there, the whole experience has actually not been too bad!
This just shows the importance of exchange rates when considering overseas transactions. Sterling is at a very good level now which may yet improve. Understanding what is driving exchange rates is critical to getting the best deal. For more information on the forecast for your particular situation please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on email@example.com