Category Archives: AUD

Will this sterling rally keep going?

The pound has had a very turbulent start to 2017 being pulled from pillar to post on all fronts. What started as a reasonably positive year as markets expected a quick Supreme Court decision to help lift sterling soon gave way to Theresa May attracting headlines over her hard Brexit approach. The roller-coaster continues next week with the Supreme Court case being released Tuesday at 09.30 am. Then on Thursday we have the latest UK GDP data. All in all a busy week, how will sterling react?

Most commentators expect the Supreme Court decision will lead to sterling strength as the court upholds the previous decision by the High Court to force Theresa May to seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. My personal view is this will be the case and sterling could enjoy a very good start to next week. GBPEUR could hit 1.16-1.17, GBPUSD could hit 1.24-1.25, GBPAUD could hit 1.65-1.66. If you have a transfer to consider then making some plans in advance is well worthwhile to capitalise on the volatility. I do feel any spikes will be short-lived so if you need to buy a foreign currency with the pound making some plans sooner rather than later is the best way forward.

As the market has ‘priced in’ the good news the real risk here is if the previous decision is rejected. Most commentators have reported that this is the big risk, sterling is more likely rise than fall. but if it falls it could be a big all! We have learnt in the last few weeks that nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates, things can change very quickly. The best way to limit your exposure is to make yourself aware of any pending exchanges you might have and we can monitor the market and offer you some practical assistance with the timing of your plans.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I have worked for nearly ten years helping clients buy and sell foreign exchange. Whether buying or selling an overseas property or paying foreign currency invoices I can help business and private clients. Even if you deal with another currency broker it is important to point out that all companies are not the same. I am very confident I can undercut any exchange rate you are offered from another currency broker as well as offer you some insight into the timing and planning of your transaction.

The one certainty to me is that pound sterling rates will remain volatile. I would be very interested to hear from you to offer some help with this volatility and help you to maximise your currency transfer. Please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting in the future.

Jonathan Watson

Exchange rates for buying Euros and Dollars hold onto gains with Supreme Court decision date released (Joshua Privett)

This nervous market has delivered something rarely seen in this post-Brexit landscape…rates for buying Euros and Dollars have held their value after a powerful day for Sterling on Tuesday.

For those unaware, Theresa May delivered a very measured and confident speech yesterday which received praise from global financial markets, shown by the massive buy up of Sterling which saw GBP/EUR, GBP/USD (in particular), GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD benefit. Sterling to US Dollars saw its biggest single daily rise since October 2008.

And what was the root cause? The fundamental point that was taken away from May’s speech, at least from a currency perspective, was that she was paving a course for the Brexit where Parliament was heavily involved.

Parliament is seen as a moderating actor. One which will delay rather than accelerate, and one which we urge caution rather than extreme measures. Whatever your politics the currency world has shown repeatedly that they wish to avoid a quick and hard exit from the EU, and this anxiety translates into a weaker Pound. Hence why this news caused the complete opposite effect on the Pound yesterday.

The fact that May took the time to say that Parliament will vote on any final deal with the EU is suggestive of continual consultation. Whether Parliament will be consulted on the triggering of Article 50, the beginning of the formal process to leave the EU, will be decided by the Supreme Court next Tuesday at 9:30am.

Given the line May took, and the fact that the heavy favourite is for the Supreme Court to uphold the initial Judicial Court decision in November, the Pound could see further improvements in the medium term.

However, Euro and Dollar buyers should be mindful that each weekend further political reactions can be expected to the Brexit. Not just from Theresa May but her European counterparts who have already expressed their own tough rhetoric. When she last discussed a hard Brexit GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD fell by 1.2% as a collective average, and the very prominent example of when Hollande and Merkel said the UK’s aims were completely unrealistic, the October flash crash saw a 3%+ drop in all buying rates within a few hours.

The closer we get to March, arguably the more twitchy and nervous your will find this marketplace. Easily changeable, and with greater downside risk than positive improvement for foreign currency buyers.

USD buyers are the only ones who may enjoy greater variance in the forecasts, but that is because Trump is considered such a considerable wildcard.

As such the sensible option for anyone planning a transfer should be either to take advantage of the recent gains, or see next Tuesday as a final point of opportunity – as after this, there is little more to be decided until the official commencement of the process to leave the EU in March. Effectively this should create a ‘sweet spot’ of opportunity for Euro, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, and Canadian Dollar buyers before this period begins.

Sterling buyers, based on your personal timeline of course, do not seem to face the same degree of urgency, with the likelihood for a nervous market to produce sudden opportunities to buy the Pound fairly cheaply being quite high.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also speak to me directly on the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception to speak with Joshua.

Major Volatility expected ahead of Supreme Court Judgement and Theresa May Speech (Daniel Johnson)

Supreme Court Judgement imminent

Today there are expected to big swings on the currency market. It would not be surprising to see the decision from the Supreme Court Judgement arrive before Theresa May’s speech at 11.45am. If it is not however, the PM’s speech will become even more important as she well have a good idea as to the outcome and her speech could give hints to investors. I think it is probable that parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50 and this should be seen as positive for Sterling as it would point toward a softer brexit. Temporary trade deals could be in place while new deals are negotiated.

If they do not get the option to vote on article 50 it would mean the UK could well be moving toward a hard brexit. This is what Theresa May is indicated is her preference. The current target for a full exit from the EU of two years would be even more unrealistic and the uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK economy would damage investor confidence considerably. Sir Ivan Rogers recently resigned from his position as UK ambassador to the EU stating the exit strategy is insufficiently planned and trade negotiations could take as long as a decade.

Theresa May to deliver Brexit Plans

Theresa May’s Speech commences at 11.45am and she is set to reveal plans for exit from the EU. It is expected that she will tell other European countries that the UK wishes to trade as freely as possible but she does wish to have a full exit, a further hint toward Britain leaving the single market. May stated during a Sky news interview last weekend she would be willing to sacrifice free trade in order to have control over immigration.

The speech will be watched very carefully by investors and high levels of volatility are expected. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker in order to maximise your return. We have contract options available to suit your individual needs and can notify you of opportune moments to get the most from your transfer. If you already have a currency provider I will provide a comparison and I am very confident in showing you a significant saving. If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

 

 

Sterling exchange rates drop to start the day only to recover – Theresa May to speak tomorrow at 11:45am (Daniel Wright)

The Pound had a bad start to the week, dropping against most major currencies in the Asian market session on Sunday night.

By the time we entered the trading floor rates had started to recover a little and U.K Manufacturing data released this morning helped to push the Pound back closer to where we saw it end last week.

Sterling really is having a rough ride of things lately and we are seeing multi month and even year lows against some major currencies. The GBP/AUD rate almost hit its lowest point since 2013 on Sunday night, giving those looking to bring Australian Dollar sellers into Pounds a great opportunity to repatriate their funds.

Now that the dust has settled on an extremely busy trading day we look ahead at what to expect tomorrow.. And it certainly does not look like a quiet one.

We have a flurry of inflation data out over the course of the morning for the U.k, with inflation expected to have risen ever so slightly. This is not a great surprise with the low value of the Pound and the Bank of England to have slight concerns over this so they will be looking to avoid the rise in inflation being too sharp.

The main event of the day will be Prime Minister Theresa may speaking about all things Brexit at 11:45am. Personally I feel we will just here more of the same comments that we have had come out from recent interviews but anyone with a currency requirement involving either buying or selling the Pound should still be poised and ready for action.

Investors and speculators alike will be moving off of every word and looking for any hints on what we are to expect so the market may be extremely volatile during this period and for the rest of the day.

If you are in the position where you are buying or selling a property overseas, your business moves funds between currencies or you have a foreign currency requirement for any other reason then it is key to keep a close eye on rates in the coming days, weeks and months ahead.

We keep our clients fully up to date with market movements and also assist with large foreign exchange transfers too. I created this site over 7 years ago to help people with market information but we also welcome new clients to assist with their money transfers on top of this.

Should you be in the position where you may need our service, you are getting rates from another broker that you don’t feel are the best or you merely want to have an efficient, pro active and friendly broker on your side then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your needs and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Alternatively feel free to call our trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for me (Daniel Wright) anytime from 08:30am until 18:00pm GMT.

Sterling exchange rates still looking shaky as we await news on Supreme Court – On the plus side a trade deal with New Zealand may be agreed (Daniel Wright)

As most of our regular readers will be more than aware, Sterling exchange rates have had a pretty torrid time this week, with the pound dropping to its lowest point on a trade weighted basis since October.

We have seen Sterling almost drop below 1.20 on against USD, 1.13 against EUR, 1.60 against AUD, 1.70 against NZD, 1.20 against CHF and it is sat below 1.60 against the Canadian Dollar as I write this!

The uncertainty caused by comments from Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend and during the week are still causing investors and speculators to remain shaky over the Pound, and economic data has not done anything to provide a backup like it has been over the past few weeks.

The key talking point now is just what will the Supreme Court decide to do? As previously mentioned this decision matters a huge amount not only because it will show us what the next steps will have to be for article 50 being invoked, but it will also more than likely lead to lots of MP’s having their say afterwards and every single comment has the potential to move the market considerably.

On Tuesday we also have Prime Minister Theresa May speaking about Brexit, which makes me wonder whether or not she is expecting to have a result from the Supreme Court before then, if we do then Sterling is set for an extremely busy week.

One positive for the Pound today was news that we appear to have all but agreed a trade deal with New Zealand, and it appears that this is ready to go as soon as possible after Brexit. A number of major economies are stepping forward and happy to do business with the U.K which is no great surprise to me.

More and more good news like this that comes out during this long winded process should only lead to the Pound getting stronger, we just need to get over the potential banana skin of the Supreme Court and Article 50 being invoked first.

If you are in the position where you need to carry out a large currency exchange either imminently or in the coming weeks and months then it is extremely important to have an experienced and proactive broker on your side. Most brokers out there will only try and convince you to buy or sell your currency as soon as possible but we are here to help you try and make the right decision for you.

Should you feel that I could be of assistance then I deal with both business clients and private individuals that need large currency transfers and would be more than happy to help you too. I created this site over 7 years ago and have helped thousands of clients that have contacted me save money over their bank or current broker.

All you need to do to make a simple enquiry is to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Sterling Exchange Rates Uncertain ahead of Supreme Court Ruling (James Lovick)

The pound is on the cusp of a very volatile and symbolic period. The Supreme Court ruling on whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May must consult Parliament is expected imminently and if it is not made this week then realistically it will be offered next week some time.

Considering how much is riding on this decision then I feel that the judges will want to move as quickly as possible in producing the outcome. This topic has been discussed at length on this blog but for me at this point in time the verdict will be the single largest driver for the price of sterling as we approach the end of March. The problem is that nobody know what the outcome will be which is why the markets are likely to react wildly.

Any clients looking to move a sizeable amount of currency in either direction would be wise to get in touch to be able to take advantage of the market volatility expected in the coming days. Those clients needing to sell Euros could potentially see a very good opportunity around the corner. Similarly those needing to sell Australian dollars may also see a win outcome on the exchange rates.

Should Theresa May win the appeal then the pound is likely to see a very sharp fall which may be seen over the course of a few days. A good few percent could be wiped off sterling’s value very quickly and it will dampen hopes of those opposing groups which are gathering momentum which are trying  to keep Britain in the single market.

Data is light for the UK today with no economic releases either today or tomorrow. Those client with a GBP USD requirement see a host of data this afternoon to include US jobless claims, import / export data and speeches from some of those policy makers on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The dollar is also likely to be impacted by this latest mind-blowing surrounding President-elect Donald Trump which has supposedly been produced by Christopher Steele, the former British MI6 agent. The former agent is now on the run in fear and this story may have some mileage in it yet.

GBP EUR has seen a poor start to the year although things have stabilised marginally with a lift yesterday and another jump higher this morning taking levels for his pair 0.5% higher to 1.1550.

If you would like further information on buying or selling pounds and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling tentatively up but US Dollar steals spotlight away from buying Euro exchange rate gains (Joshua Privett)

The very politicized landscape for 2017 has struck the currency markets once more, with Sterling gaining strength following very encouraging economic performance news, but still losing out heavily to improvements on the US Dollar and Australian Dollar today.

I’m sure many of the readers here would have seen the news coming out in the last 24 hours about the alleged ties between Trump and Russia. Rather than Russia seeming to be the outside actor influencing the election, there is now talk of the Trump campaign team and Russia actively working together.

What does this have to do with exchange rates?

The value of the US Dollar is heavily linked to the Australian Dollar, and today was the confirmation hearing for the US Secretary of State. With all of this news, markets were worried he would flounder and create an issue for his confirmation hearing. Quite the opposite. He confirmed the party line and seemed to allude to a continuation of previous foreign policy under Obama (i.e. critical of Russia), and market confidence in the Dollar soared, taking the Australian Dollar with it.

So US Dollar and Australian Dollar sellers were gifted some tempting exchange rates from this sudden situation found in the US and the way it was dealt with.

The positive news today for the Pound, however, is still suggestive of further improvements for Sterling in the medium-term. The Supreme Court could be released any day from tomorrow now that they are back in session, and the anticipated result should improve Sterling’s buying power against its major currency pairings.

As in November, when the initial ruling from the Judicial Court stated that Parliament must be consulted to trigger Article 50, rates for buying Euros and Dollars soared.

However, as we edge closer to Article 50 being triggered, this is causing heightened anxiety surrounding the Pound. The sudden drop in the Pound on Monday in reaction to Theresa May’s very vague and hardly shocking comments in an interview on Sunday.

So with the risk of May and other European leaders having to make more and more comments on the aims of the negotiations as we edge closer to March, it can be argued that the clear result of the Supreme Court decision could bring a ‘sweet spot’ on buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates in particular before we edge further into this period of heightened political risk to the value of the Pound.

To ensure you make the most of this particular opportunity, a premium will be put on being able to move quickly over the next few weeks. There are a number of options through a currency exchange specialist which makes sure you are never ‘last to the party’ when more tempting buying opportunities arise, as they are rarely available for long.

You can contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximizing your currency return and protecting it from any sudden pitfalls, which can occur in this marketplace with little warning.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

Sterling continues to fall following Theresa May’s comments (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has a rough start to the week

Following Theresa May’s comments this weekend, where she hinted toward a hard Brexit sterling has fallen heavily with GBP/EUR sitting in the 1.14s and GBP/USD in the 1.21s.  She stated during a Sky News interview that she would consider giving up free trade for control over immigration.

I think more important however will be the ruling in regards to the supreme court judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50. If parliament do get the vote it is probable there will be a soft brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while negotiations take place. This eventuality should cause the pound to rise.

If parliament do not get the vote a hard brexit becomes the probable outcome and this could result in trade negotiations being troublesome and elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned  due to what he considers to be unrealistic estimations on how long brexit will take. The current target for a full exit from the EU is two years, Sir Ivan thinks it will be nearer ten.

I would expect the the supreme court ruling to come through between the 12th-17th January, keep your eyes on developments on the case as this could have major implications on the value of the pound.

UK data releases that could effect Sterling short term

Tomorrow will see the release of UK manufacturing data where I would expect to see an improvement which could cause some respite for the pound. GDP figures are also released on Wednesday and I would again expect a slight improvement. Please be aware however that any news from the supreme court judgement is likely to outweigh these data releases.

If you have a currency requirement I will happily assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will provide a comparison against your current provider and also formulate a trading strategy to suit your individual needs. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over sixteen years with the highest credit rating and one which is also registered with the FCA. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs.

Sterling strength expected later in the week, Euro and Dollar sellers should be looking to act soon (Joshua Privett)

It’s been a fairly uneventful beginning to the year on the currency markets, with Sterling exchange rates against the Euro and the US Dollar moving heavily each day, yet by close of business we’ve tended to find ourselves back where we started.

GBP/EUR has reamined around the 1.16/17 mark, GBP/USD has held quite firmly at 1.23, and GBP/AUD around the 1.68-1.70 range.

This exchange rate behaviour is indicative of a market awaiting some very important news.

I hate to flog a dead horse for our regular readers by continuing to address the upcoming Supreme Court decision and the implications this will have for the Pound, but it is incredibly pertinent to anyone planning to buy or sell Sterling for a foreign currency. Not just over the next few weeks as we await the verdict, but over the next few months in the run up to the triggering of Article 50.

For those who are not aware, the Supreme Court is currently ruling an appeal of November’s Judicial Court decision to allow Parliament to vote on the enactment of Article 50 – the formal process to leave the EU.

As in November, financial markets should react well to the decision to involve Parliament in the Brexit process. The Pound’s value increases with investors gaining confidence that Parliament’s involvement will mean the Brexit process will be delayed to some degree due to cumbersome Parliamentary procedures, and that this increases the likelihood of a softer exit from the EU.

You can also argue that Parliament’s involvement means that the aims of the negotiations and how well they will progress will be much more public. This permits greater confidence to invest in the Pound as investors and financial institutions will have a greater understanding of what trajectory the UK economy, and therefore the Pound, will be taking in the medium-term.

The expectation is that the Supreme Court will uphold the initial conclusion of the Judicial court a few months ago. Based on November’s currency movements, this will likely cause 1-2 cent improvements on GBP/EUR, similar gains on GBP/USD, and likely larger positive spikes on GBP/AUD due to the volatile nature of the currency pairing.

The verdict is expected between the 12-17th of January, so if you are a Euro or Dollar seller, it may be wise to move ahead of this coming Thursday to avoid being caught up in any sudden and unannounced spikes in Sterling value when we are told the decision.

Furthermore, on Wednesday data sets for manufacturing and industrial sectors of the UK economy, and a first look at growth for the final quarter of last year, will be released in the morning for markets to react to.

The manufacturing sector has enjoyed a resurgence following the sudden devaluation of the Pound in June, and growth in the UK economy has shown on mutliple occasions since the June vote to Leave the EU to be resiliant to the economic shocks this had entailed.

So, in short, very good news is expected to be provided to Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term. Two major events are expected to make your transfers more profitable, which is why anyone looking to conduct a Sterling purchase, even over the next few months, should look to how you can secure these still historically favourable exchange rates before Wednesday.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current exchange rates can be fixed in place for anyone wanting to prebook their currency transfer later in the year at current exchange rates.