Category Archives: AUD

Flat week for Sterling so far with little economic data out – What does the rest of the week hold? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly slow start to the week against all major currencies, as we have seen very little in the way of economic data released leading towards the end of the month.

We do have a few points of note later on in the week mainly concerning Europe, Canada and America.

Swiss employment figures are however due at 08:15am tomorrow morning which is one point of note for anyone following the Swiss Franc.

Shortly after that we have German unemployment figures at 08:55am which although is a fairly important release however it appears no change in unemployment rates is expected but any differential to the expectation of 6.7% could lead to a volatile morning for the Euro.

later on in the day at 13:30pm we do have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show growth over in the states during a specific period and can actual lead to market volatility for all major currencies as it may have an effect on global attitude to risk.

Friday we round the week off for the Euro with European inflation and employment  figures with year on year inflation expected to come out at 0.8%   and unemployment to remain at 11.5% (much worse than that of the U.K and US).

Canada release their GDP figures later on in the afternoon at 13:30pm and one thing to be fairly wary of is month end flows which we do tend to see fairly often on the last day of the month. This can cause volatility for all major currencies in any direction so Friday is a good day to ensure you have someone watching the market for you.

If you do not currently use a currency broker or you feel you could be getting a little more out of the broker you currently use in terms of exchange rate and service then it may be prudent to contact me directly.

I pride myself on keeping clients fully up to date with market movements and our exchange rates have won numerous awards so I would be surprised if I couldn’t save you money too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the service and quote you if you wish.

Can we save you money and beat your current quote for currency exchange? Why not try us out, I would be surprised if I cannot beat any bank or brokerage rate which means more money in your pocket (Daniel Wright)

I have had thousands of clients contact me through this site over the past five years and almost every single one has ended up making a saving using the company I work for over their current provider.

When it comes to an online platform for example, generally I would steer clear of using those as although they are fairly convenient, you have nobody working on the rate for you therefore tend to find you aren’t getting the best exchange rate you can.

Also, if you have been using a broker for many years then in my experience, like with anything in life it pays dividends to get a comparison once in a while even if you are fairly comfortable as it is highly unlikely that your exchange rate will be as sharp as it possibly can be.

The beauty of our service is that we are not tied to a particular margin therefore it means that there should be no reason why I can’t make sure I save you enough money to make sure it is worth your while using us, if I can’t then I will be totally honest and tell you to carry on with your current provider – For two minutes of your time getting in touch there really is nothing to lose.

I have clients ranging from small companies buying stock from China to larger companies millions of  Pounds overseas regularly along with private clients sending regular payments over for mortgage payments to premier league footballers buying a villa in Spain.

Feel free to email  me (Daniel Wright) today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your needs and a contact number and I will contact you straight away to let you know what I can offer and how the service works. We have won numerous national awards for our exchange rates and level of customer service so if you have found the information on this site of use so far it would be well worth you getting in touch.

Are you placing too high an expectation on sterling exchange rates rising?

So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.

I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.

Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!

For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

 

Bank Of England Minutes Show Mixed View On Interest Rates 7-2; Sterling Rallies (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound has been under pressure since last weeks Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report whereby the prospect of an interest rate hike was pushed back as predicted.  This was reinforced by yesterday’s fall in inflation from 1.9% to 1.6% (the figure had been expected at 1.8%), so it would suggest inflation is not a concern for the moment that would require an interest rate hike to curb it.

However the Bank of England Minutes just published showed a split of 7-2 in favour of holding rates, and sterling has rallied back this morning.  The news still suggests we are a way off a hike as it will take 5 members to approve it, however it does make it a bit more likely than it was prior to this announcement.  I still think we need a consistent period of positive data to merit an interest rate hike and expect this to occur in early 2015, so I wouldn’t expect sterling to rocket up any time soon  This news is more likely to simply provide sterling some support and relief from the sell off over the previous week rather than recover all the losses since the end of July.

Whilst Carney has come under fire in the media for flip-flopping on when interest rates may go up, however I think some people are missing the point.  It isn’t so much when rates will rise that he is focussing on but the fact that increases will be small and measured  ie people and businesses can make longer term investment plans on the back of this rather than worrying that borrowing costs might shoot up 2% in a year and risk a panic or another bust!

There are still areas of concern for the pound including the deficit (let’s see how Public Borrowing comes out on Thursday), and the Scottish Referendum.  Whilst I do not expect Scotland to vote yes, I think this issue needs to be resolved to remove uncertainty hanging over sterling.  To this end I think current levels for the pound represent pretty good value against the Euro, Kiwi, and Aussie for now and would be tempted to buy.  Dollar buyers may want to see what comes out of the FOMC Minutes this evening before making a decision.  If you would like help with a currency transfer or find out what exchange rate we can offer, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – Economic data out the first few days this week and how it may move exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A very slow start to the week for Sterling today with very little economic data or news for the markets to move off.

This will more than likely be the calm before the storm this week though as there is plenty of data for investors and speculators alike to get their teeth into which will no doubt cause quite a lot of volatility for most major currencies.

Tonight - Overnight we see the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) inflation expectations, out at 02:30am and 04:00am respecively. RBA Governor Stevens has seemingly turned a corner lately with his comments on the strength of the Australian Dollar and appears to be a little happier with the way things are going, leading to the Australian Dollar gaining some strength back against the Pound and knocking the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.80. Stevens is also due to speak on 00:30 Tuesday night as well.

Tomorrow – Tomorrow morning we see a key inflation release from the U.K which could easily lead to a bumpy ride for Sterling followers during the course of tomorrow morning. Inflation had beejn at 1.9% which is just about below the Government target of 2% so any minor alterations to this, especailly to the upside could give the Pound a morning boost, as one way to lower would be to raise interest rates, so a figure of 2% or above may lead to a little speculation of a rate hike coming a little closer. Of course, comments from the Governor of the Bank of England last week may well cut this potential out.

Later in the day it is the turn of the States for their inflation data, interstingly also expected to come out at 1.9% so if you have an interest in the Dollar be sure to keep a watchful eye on the market shortly after 13:30pm – Or why not email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I can monitor things on your behalf.

Wednesday – Wednesday morning we have the Bank of  England minutes from the last BOE interest rate decision. No major expectations from this one however it does really have the potential to throw up a surprise or two and news that any of the 9 members of the Bank of England now are voting in favour of an interest rate hike may give also Sterling a shift up in the right direction.

Later in the evening we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) minutes, again very similar to the BOE minutes seen a little earlier on this will show how the Fed voted in terms of rate movements and what they discussed at the last interest rate decision, last time around we saw one memebr of the Fed vote in favour of a rate hike which did give the Dollar a little boost.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out and you want to achieve the very best rates of exchange either for your company or a personal transaction, along with highly valuable market knowledge then why not contact me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Even if you currently use another broker you may be surprised at how much you can save by getting in touch as a small improvement on an exchange rate can make a big difference to you.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

UK GDP as expected, where to focus now? (Mike Vaughan)

This mornings revised GDP figures were as expected coming in at 0.8% and causing little reaction for the pound, something that is also likely to be seen with the Euro due to the European bank holiday. Lately the Euro has reached a near one month high against the pound having shifted back nearly two cents since the lows seen in July creating, in my opinion, a good opportunity for anyone selling Euros.

Looking at the US dollar and recently the greenback has had somewhat of a resurgence against the pound having rallied 3% since mid July. For me this is a trend that could well continue.

With the prospect of an interest rate hike in the UK this year highly unlikely and some of the data sets in the UK starting to slow, the pound is now on the back foot. To compound this the data from the US is improving and with the end of the FED’s tapering of QE in sight (last taper scheduled for October) I believe rumours will begin to circulate regarding when the FED may raise interest rates and it is this speculation that for me will drive the dollar (in the same way that it lent support to sterling earlier this year). For this reason should you be buying dollars you may wish to assess your position now.

Should you be selling AUD then the current shift of three cents may represent a good return. Levels are trading at a three month high for AUD/GBP and with the RBA minutes released overnight Tuesday next week, then these levels may not hang around too long. Any hint towards an interest rate cut by the RBA and the current AUD strength could be evaporated very quickly. Also looking at the recent trend between this pair and I would expect a correction back towards 1.80 soon.

To get more insight into the currency service we provide and to discuss the various contract types we can offer then please get in touch. With access to commercial rates of exchange we aim to undercut any other financial institution and save our clients money. Please email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and  see how our service can help you. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling suffers following Mark Carney’s comments – Pound weakness against all majors (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a fairly bad couple of days following reasonably negative comments from the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney during the BOE inflation report.

Carneys comments included the fact that he felt the strong Pound was creating a headwind for exports and becoming damaging and that there was a “heightened uncertainty” about slack in the economy.

Mark Carney also declined to comment on the precise timing of an interest rate hike and that there  is no numerical threshold for wage growth that will trigger a rise in interest rates.

This all followed news earlier on in the morning that average earnings had dropped off a little which is bad news for the U.K economy and may well hold back a rate hike.

Apart from a number of other factors, one of the key elements to contribute towards the U.K hiking interest rates and the Pound possibly starting to see good strength off the back of this is wage inflation keeping in line or above general inflation. If the figure stays below then even if people are earning slightly more, the price of goods and services is actually going up at a faster pace therefore they are actually worse off and a rate hike would not be particularly helpful.

This all is a little concerning for anyone looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound for either their company, to purchase an overseas property or indeed for any other reason they may need to send money overseas. The recent rise in the value of Sterling had generally been surrounding both good solid economic data along with growing speculation of an interest rate hike coming closer and with data dropping off a little and the Governor of the Bank of England not being so positive then the Pound could have a grey cloud over it again for a little.

For those who don’t know an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates can be negative and with the market moving on speculation as well as fact you can see quite large movements on any comments such as we heard this morning.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and an overview of what your requirements are and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to explain how I may be able to assist you.

Sterling weakened so now are the best rates to sell Euros & Dollars to buy the Pound (Ben Amrany)

The pound has had a very bad day weakening significantly against most of the majors. Comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney saw the pound fall from highs of  1.2632 to a low of 1.2468 against the Euro. The Dollar was a similar theme falling from 1.6843 down to 1.6685 and some the biggest losses were against the southern hemisphere currency with over a 1% drop against the Australian & New Zealand Dollar along with the Rand.

Have the wheels come off for sterling exchange rates? 

The Quarterly Inflation Report by the Bank of England dampened the hopes of any future interest rate rises in the UK as markets are now expecting that first rate to be no earlier than February 2015 while prior to the report we were expecting a rate hike as early as November. The report also slashed its wage growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.25% That forecast comes as official figures showed average wages excluding bonuses grew by 0.6%

Wage increase is one of the biggest concerns for the BoE before raising these interest rates. Carney’s also commented that the value of the pound has been to high and it has been effecting UK businesses and their exports of late.  So I ask. is this the start of the decline after we have witnesses really good gains in the last year. Nothing continues to go up for ever and this Friday the GDP figures will give us a good indication if the pound can recover today’s losses.

We expect to see growth for the UK economy but the key for the pound will be determined by whether growth is above or below 0.8% for the quarter and 3.1% for year on year.

If below forecasts we may see the pounds trend from today continue and a target of 1.2450 may occur so you may be wise to secure your funds before this key release. GDP is one of the biggest factors that affect the pounds movements and while we are still trading at very attractive levels now may be a wise move to act and secure your funds.

if you are looking at buying or selling the pound please feel free to email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will introduce myself and the service we can offer a little more formally. Rates can be up to 4% better than the banks and we will help youtry and time your exchange.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

Busy week for the pound. How to get the best deal on your foreign exchange? (Mike Vaughan)

GBP/EUR

Over the past 12 months we have seen the UK economy start to stabilise after a long period of stagnation and weak growth forecasts. This in turn has given analysts reason to believe the Bank of England will raise interest rates, something that has lent support to sterling over the past few months. I still believe it is too early for the UK to raise the base rate and it is unlikely we will see anything from the central bank until at least the first quarter of 2015, this combined with a slight slowdown in recent UK data (retail sales, construction figures) could mean the pound will stabilise. Remember we are still some 11 cents better than levels in 2013………………

Whilst Eurozone productivity continues to remain unbalanced, we will find that UK exports are negatively affected and this of course could hinder our own recovery moving forward. We also need to consider that the Bank of England (BoE) will be wary about the Pound gaining too much strength, for fear of alienating our main trading partners (Eurozone) even further.

**Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should be keeping a close eye on the release of tomorrow’s UK’s construction and industrial production figures at 09:30 and Thursday’s Bank of England and ECB interest rate meeting at 12:00 and 12:45 respectively – all of which are likely to be key market movers**

GBP/USD

Cable rates pushed close to a five year high in July reaching above 1.72 and creating some fantastic buy opportunities. In the past few weeks however there has been a real shift with the greenback having gained just shy of 4 cents. Much of this can be attributed to the slightly softer UK data of late combined with improving sentiment from across the pond. A key area the FED have been focusing on has been the jobs market and with last week’s non-farm payroll data showing another good improvement this could be the shift the dollar needs.

As mentioned above a major reason the pound has strengthened has been due to interest rate speculation and this same scenario could now lend support to the dollar. Earlier this year the FED hinted that they may consider raising interest rates 6 months after the end of their bond buying stimulus program. The end of the US tapering and the final reduction of £15bn is scheduled for October and following this it is likely the focus will turn to when the FED may decide to raise interest rates.

Key market mover this week: US Trade Balance figures Wednesday at 13:30 and Thursday’s initial jobless claims at 13:30

Australian Dollar

The current GBP/AUD see-saw is continuing with neither currency looking to take a strong foothold over the other. Looking back since March and the market has traded a relatively small range between 1.79-1.83.

Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates at 2.5% as expected. In the accompanying statement the RBA governor Glenn Stevens pointed to a period of stability with interest rates and moved away from the idea of a cut later this year, pushing rates close to the 1.80 level this morning. For me the period of stability between these two is likely to continue and any shift towards the higher range should be seen as an opportunity for AUD buyers.

Look out for the RBA monetary statement overnight on Friday

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – Australian Interest rate decision tonight and a flurry of U.K data tomorrow and Wednesday (Daniel Wright)

An interesting night overnight for those following Australian Dollar exchange rates as we have the Australian interest rate decision along with the rate statement shortly after.

RBA Governor Stevens seems to be constantly changing his mind about the strength of the Australian Dollar being negative for the economy or not so this release could quite easily cause quite a bit of overnight movement depending on what he now says, it is doubtful we will have any change in interest rates but the statement for future policy may be key.

Tomorrow morning there is plenty of European services data throughout early morning trading, followed by Markit Services data for the U.K at 09:30am. For anyone with an interest in New Zealand Dollars employment figures for New Zealand are also out at 23:45pm.

Wednesday morning brings an important start to the day for the U.K with Industrial and Manufacturing production data coming out at 09:30am which will be a key indicator as to how the economy performed throughout July and can lead to quite a bit of market movement.

Later in the day we have the NIESR (National Institute of Social and Economic Research) GDP Estimate. This can also be quite a large market mover as the NIESR are usually fairly close with their predictions.

We also have interest rate decisions on Thursday for both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, we will cover this further later in the week.

If you are looking to carry out a currency transfer either during the week or in the coming months then it would be well worth you getting in touch with me directly.

The brokerage I work for offers award winning rates of exchange and great level of customer service, you would deal with me personally from start to finish too so I will be happy to keep you up to date with the very latest market movements. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to help you.

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