Category Archives: AUD

Will the pound fall or rise next week?

Next week could be a very challenging time for sterling exchange rates! We will enter the month of April, the month before the UK’s General election. This event is widely predicted to cause GBP losses and anyone buying or selling the pound should really take stock of the excellent improvements in their favour this year.

The pound has struggled in recent weeks as the prospect of raising interest rates by the Bank of England moves out further. Lower Inflation has meant there is less need to raise interest rates and comments by Andy Haldane, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates may need to fall rather than raise did little for confidence this week. Hence the reason GBP rates fell this week.

Mark Carney turned the coin over with comments an interest rate hike was in fact more likely, hence GBP strength today. Such volatility underlining the sensitivity markets can have to comments and economic data. On the whole the pound is up at multi year highs against the Euro, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Rand. The only currency the pound is struggling against is the US dollar!

All in all the exchange rate is likely to fall next month at some point owing to the uncertainty of the election. This will impact both buyers and sellers of the pound so making plans in advance is in my opinion sensible. For more information on all of your options please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling’s Value Continues to Fall (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s value has fallen this week against almost every major currency and it now looks like we have seen the end of the recent GBP momentum. Only a couple of weeks ago the Pound hit a fresh 8 year high against the EUR, sitting at over 1.42 on the exchange. However, a poor run of economic data, including weak Manufacturing and worse than expected unemployment figures, has halted the Pound’s rise and pushed GBP/EUR rates down by over 6 cents from the recent high.

Whilst I always felt that a realignment was likely, this week’s move has been extremely aggressive and proves how fickle the currency markets can be. It is likely that the recent talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras & German Chancellor Angela Merkel have helped ease pressure on the EUR, with both now agreeing the Greece needs structural reforms if it going to continue as part of the single union.

We also need to remember the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on the matter, as they have become concerned about how the Pound’s rising value would negatively affect UK exports. These fears were confirmed recently with UK factory orders falling to a 2 year low. The central bank have already indicated we will not be seeing a UK interest rate hike any time soon and I now feel it is unlikely that GBP/EUR rates will move back through 1.40 in the short-term.

Looking ahead and UK Retail Sales figures are released tomorrow and are expected to show an improvement. This could help the Pound find some support, although if figures are worse than expected then I anticipate the Pound’s slide to continue.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rate movements today – Quiet week for economic data this week (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost our sincere condolences to anyone involved in the air crash today, always deeply saddening to hear such news.

Regarding currency, we have seen another fairly stable day for Sterling against the Euro and Dollar yet with fairly sharp drops against the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

We saw inflation figures out earlier this morning which immediately knocked the Pound as inflation dropped to a rather concerning 0% against market expectations of dropping down to 0.1%.

The inflation issue remains a concern for the Bank of England, along with the fact that Manufacturing figures at the start of the week showing the U.k manufacturing levels are really down.

This may be partially down to the fact that Sterling has been so strong against the Euro of late which has possibly led to European clients of U.K businesses seeking to buy their goods and services from elsewhere in Europe instead of from the U.K as Sterling is just so expensive for them.

With this in mind it is no surprise that the 1.40 level for GBP/EUR did not stick around for long and although there are many problems still within Europe I personally still do not see Sterling gaining significant ground against the Euro in the coming weeks, so if you have a pending requirement to buy Euros for your business or to purchase a property overseas then it may be prudent to look at making a purchase soon rather than potentially seeing another boat of opportunity sail away.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Exchange Rate Forecast – USD Forecast – Currency News ( Andrew Bromley )

Greece Making The Headlines Again

German Chancellor Angela Merkel met yesterday evening with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to discuss the Greek Debt. It is clear that even though extension to certain bailout payments have been granted, Greece is still struggling financially and is pulling out even the most drastic measures to change that. There are on-going reports that With the Greek Bailout situation potentially back in the limelight, Euro buyers should ensure that they are watching their position.

 

GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

UK Factory Orders yesterday showed a reduction to the lowest figure for 24 months, confirming fears that exports are starting to struggle. The main factor for the reduced figures is the strong pound over the weak Euro, meaning Eurozone partners are being priced out of the market. Factory output is currently reported as being at 2008 levels – a serious cause for concern.  We have seen in the past the BOE (Bank of England) act swiftly to boost export opportunities by ‘talking down’ the value of Sterling. I therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Carney (BOE Governor) make this move sooner rather than later to bring the Pound down – potentially in his address on Friday at 08:45. UK ‘Consumer Price Index’ (Inflation) figures are released at 09:30 today and again a slight reduction is expected. Inflation is moving further and further from the target of 2.0%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound weaken due to the impact of lower Oil prices, so ensure that you are ready to act swiftly if you haven’t already!

The overwhelming point to consider for anyone holding Sterling is that we are about to enter potentially the most volatile trading period for 5 years. The UK General Election is wide open with an outcome incredibly hard to predict. A hung parliament is a distinct possibility – the last hung-parliament carried huge losses for the Pound. Parliament is set to break for ‘recess’ on Monday 30th March, so expect the Politicians to then hit the campaign trail with vengeance!

 

Australian Dollars at Record Short Term Lows

The Aussie has seen a huge backing following the US Dollar weakening this weekend. As the old saying goes, ‘When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold’, very definitely the case here. US Dollar investors will buy Australian Dollar bonds as the potential returns are greater, meaning the influx of funds strengthens the currency. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia have stated on several occasions that they will act to avoid the currency becoming overvalued, generally by cutting Interest Rates. Therefore, if you are selling AUD I’d do so sooner father than later. If you’re buying, get in contact to make sure that you are ready to take advantage of a spike…

USD Forecast – What to Expect for the Rest of the Week

Following last week’s bold move in to the mid-1.40s, Dollar buyers have had a slight improvement. Janet Yellen (Chair of the US Federal Reserve) stated that, ‘Policy makers aren’t rushing to raise Interest rates’.  This has subsequently seen the Dollar lose the gains made, and puts a big focus on to data releases this week. This afternoon the US releases Inflation data (12:30) and tomorrow afternoon Durable goods figures (also 12:30). The week is capped off on Friday afternoon with the US Gross Domestic Product figure so all in all still a very busy week for the Greenback.

 

New Zealand Dollar – When will we see 2.0 again?

The New Zealand Dollar has seen a huge improvement over the last 30 day (as noted in the above table), gaining back roughly 10 Cents against the Pound. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced on 12th March that Interest rates were not going to be cut on this occasion, and more recently a primary Kiwi Bank (NAB) have been very ‘bullish’ in their Exchange Rate forecast. NAB has indicated that due to good returns harvested from investing in NZD, the NZ Dollar should have a period of strength. However, this should be seen as a window, rather than the norm. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler has the power to halt a rampant Kiwi Dollar by cutting Interest Rates so I don’t think it will be too long until a return north of the 2.0 mark is seen. If you are Selling Kiwi it may be worth making a move…

Please feel free to contact me direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 – please quote this blog and ask for me – Andrew Bromley. Alternatively, email me on AJB@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Volatile (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling exchange rates have remained volatile throughout the trading week, following some key data releases for the UK & abroad. GBP/EUR rates have dipped again during Friday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.3768 at the low. The Pound had started to gain further momentum earlier this week but with UK unemployment coming out worse than expected, it was quickly halted in its tracks.

The latest UK budget was also announced this week and whilst I’m sure it will continue to be dissected over the coming days, the general consensus was positive and it certainly has reinforced the belief that the UK economy is continuing its recovery at a steady pace. Growth forecasts have been improved for next year and 2016 and the positive feeling is likely to continue into the second quarter of this year.

However, despite this positivity the Pound has failed to improve on the high of last week and we are now in fact trading  almost 5 cents lower than the high of last week, a key indication to me that Sterling’s recent momentum is slowing. I feel the Pound will now struggle to break back above 1.40 in the short-term, with the BoE keen to control Sterling’s value for fear of alienating our trade partners. It is also likely that we are seeing a general realignment following a sustained rise for the Pound and for this reason I would be very tempted to consider my position around the current levels if I had EUR to purchase over the coming weeks.

It’s been a busy week for Cable exchange rates with the latest FED interest rate decision and monetary policy statements.  The FED modified their stance on interest rates during their statement, although their base has remained unchanged for the time being. They removed the word ‘patience’ from their regular statement, language that was seen as an indication that a rate change would not be seen for at least a few months.

There was a huge amount of volatility on GBP/USD rates during the decision and subsequent statement, with Sterling hitting a high of 1.5068, before falling back sharply by almost two cents.

The FED still said that it wants to see ‘further improvement’ in the US labour market before raising their base rate but it does now seem this is far more likely to happen in the US before we see the BoE do something similar in the UK.

Despite this more positive outlook Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen did not commit to any specific timeline and sceptics may argue this statement does not tell us anything new. However, considering the weak run of data that came out of the US recently, including poor Retail Sales figures, many analysts will argue this is the first step towards a US rate hike over the coming months.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro creeps down from 1.40 – Market poised on Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and RBA minutes confirm future interest rate cut is probable (Daniel Wright)

An interesting day on the currency markets for Sterling, seeing the rate come down from 1.40 against the Euro, finished the day in the mid 1.47s against the Dollar and ended close to 1.94 against the Australian Dollar.

Earlier this morning European inflation figures were one of the main drivers for a little Euro strength which has been an extremely rare occurrence over the past few weeks. This gave those looking to sell Euros a brief opportunity to achieve a slightly better price and showed again just how important it is to buy on spikes when they occur and not to get greedy and miss out.

There is every chance we may see the rate push back through 1.40 but it is key to remember that if you are buying Euros then you are almost already a whopping 10% up on the rate at the turn of the year so if you are in the process of buying a property overseas with Euros it may be prudent to at least lock in a portion of your funds as there are still plenty of issues that could bring the rate back down… One being the election.

If you are looking to buy or indeed sell Euros in the near future and you would like my assistance and to get not only award winning exchange rates but a high level of customer service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Anyone in the position of selling Dollars will be pleased with the last few weeks movements as we saw the rate burst through the 1.50 mark for the first time in a few years. Tomorrow we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement which will be a key indicator as to when the Fed may look to raise interest rates and could lead to quite a volatile evening for the Dollar.

For Australian Dollar followers the RBA commented last night in their latest meeting minutes that they would cut interest rates if they needed to in the future which suggests there is every chance of an interest rate cut and the Australian Dollar to weaken again in the coming months.

An interest rate cut is generally seen as negative for a currency and a hike in rates is generally positive and with exchange rates moving on speculation as well as fact even the slightest hint of a cut or hike can lead to quite a lot of market movement.

Tomorrow is an extremely busy day for those with Sterling to exchange to or from any other currency. We have the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision at 09:30am and the budget at 12:30pm so be sure to keep a keen eye on the rates on and shortly after these times.

Once again if you have an exchange to carry out then I welcome all new clients and can generally get better exchange rates than any other company out there so even if you are already set up with a broker there is a good chance you can still save money. All you need to do to get in touch is email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a number and an explanation of what you are looking to do and I will make sure I get in touch.

Are GBP/EUR Rates Heading Back Below 1.40? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling spiked towards a fresh 8 year high against the EUR earlier this week, with rates moving through 1.42 at the high. The Pounds’ recent momentum has shown no real signs of slowing but this trend will not last for ever, despite the aggressive move we’ve seen for GBP since the turn of the year. Market conditions can change rapidly and with the European Central Bank (ECB) having already laid out their plan for aggressive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE) up until 2016, it will be interesting to note how the markets react to this moving forward. We need not forget that the UK economy was injected with aggressive rounds of monetary stimulus at a time when our economic recovery was slowing and it has the desired effect. Any similar outcome for the Eurozone is likely to see the EUR snap back and when it does, the current highs are likely to look very attractive.

In my opinion it does feel as if Sterling is riding the crest of a wave but with far more scope for improvement on the EUR side, when consider recent market history, then it could be playing a dangerous game assuming this ride will last indefinitely. I don’t anticipate any sustained run for the EUR under current market conditions but I do feel the EUR will gain support sooner rather than later and a move back below 1.40 is likely over the coming weeks.

It is a fairly quiet day in terms of economic data for the UK, although Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney is speaking later today and any insight into the BoE’s stance and upcoming targets, are likely to cause additional volatility on GBP exchange rates.

We can offer various contract options, including forward contracts and limit orders, which are designed to maximise the market value and protect clients form future negative moves in the market.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Exchange Rate Forecast – GBP – Euro – US Dollar Prediction ( Andrew Bromley )

EURO FORECAST

The Euro seems to be slipping off of a cliff without a rope – up a creek without a paddle if you will! The markets are still digesting the spending of the Eurozone Central Bank across the collective economies, with particular focus on Greece. Greece is still a concern as the terms put forward by the Syriza party are still considered too fluffy and there is obviously still a huge amount of distrust there. In my opinion the Euro is the weakest of the major currencies by some distance. When compared to the Pound following the commencement of UK Quantitative Easing (GBP EUR hit Parity), I’d get my funds out of the Single Currency post haste! It is worth being cautious tomorrow morning at 08:00 as Eurozone Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at 08:00…

GBP FORECAST

All currency exchanges that include the Pound should be very wary of the looming General Election and associated build up. I personally think it is incredibly hard to call now for GBP EUR as to whether or not the Pound will be pushed back significantly. The very worst scenario for the UK would be a government focused on things other than the economy – especially leaving our key trading partner the EU. Therefore should parties other than the Conservatives have a good run, be prepared for some Pound weakness. This weakness is not guaranteed to move GBP EUR however! Next week George Osborne announces what could be his last budget, and will be a vital tool for election success (or failure). In his last major address at the end of 2014 he cut Stamp Duty and pumped more money in to the NHS. It will be interesting to see if he has any other big announcements that could talk those sitting on the fence in to voting Conservative.

USD FORECAST

Following the major gain for the US last week on the back of improved employment statistics, the next key date is Thursday. The US has been hit hard in key areas of late and it will potentially be seen in the retail sales figures released. We may see the Dollar slip a small amount, however my overall opinion for the US Dollar is on-going strength. The Federal Reserve were more positive about an interest rate increase in the State this Summer so don’t be surprised to see levels in the 1.49s soon. During the Election build up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see levels go even lower in to the 1.40s!

If you have Dollars to buy, I’d get them bought ASAP. There’s no point in my opinion risking a slight improvement in rate against the worlds ‘Safe Haven’ currency when it is performing like this!

Finally, those with a New Zealand Dollar exchange – be aware that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their Interest Decision at 20:00 UK time – will there be a change from the current 3.5%??

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to get in touch to discuss. With GBP EUR crashing through 1.40 and GBP USD testing 1.50, markets are incredibly volatile and worth having an extra pair of eyes on the markets!

Direct Dial to the trading floor 01494 787 478 ( Please quote this ‘Blog’ and ask for Andrew )

Alternatively email me directly AJB@currencies.co.uk

Have a good evening…

Andrew Bromley

 

GBP/EUR Rates Hit Fresh 7 Year High! (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked back up to a fresh 7 year high, following a dip during the early part of the trading week. It’s a busy week in terms of data for both the UK and the Eurozone but as we head into the weekend, current market conditions remain heavily weighted in favour of the Pound.

With Mario Draghi giving his latest public address yesterday, it was always likely to cause additional volatility on the pair and so it proved. The EUR did strengthen during the early part of his speech before the Pound recovered and this trend has continued into Friday’s trading, with GBP/EUR rates hitting 1.3890 at today’s high. With the ECB embarking on their 60 billion Quantitative Easing (QE) programme next week, the next few months are likely to prove decisive, in determining the upcoming trend on GBP/EUR exchange rates. If the QE programme proves fruitful then there is a strong case to be made that the EUR will finally gain some sustained market support but if the current woes continue, then a move through 1.40 is still a possibility.

GBP/AUD rates have taken a slight hit during the latter part of the trading week, with rates now floating around 1.94 on the exchange. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets by keeping interest rates on hold at 2.25%. The expectation was for a cut to 2% but concerns over house prices has caused them to reconsider and with GDP falling below their 3% target, the AUD has found life tough going of late. A possible catalyst for the recent improvement is likely to be linked to positive Chinese data, which indicated that growth forecast were above expectation and due to Australia’s trade links to China, this has helped push GBP/AUD rates away from the recent 6 year lows.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Important economic data out tomorrow for those with an interest in Euros and Dollars (Daniel Wright)

Although quiet for the U.K tomorrow brings us two fairly important pieces of economic data from both Europe and the U.S with European growth figures and U.S Non-Farm payroll data due out at 10:00am and 13:30pm respectively.

The final revision for growth figures during quarter 4 of 2014 is due out at 10am and expectations are for the figure to have been revised up a little which may lead to a little Euro strength to end off what has been a torrid week for Euro exchange rates.

Later on in the day we have U.S Non-Farm Payroll data which is a data release important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR. Non-Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non-agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.

This release can cause quite a lot of volatility because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out. The market moves on rumours and predictions as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from initial predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as I am sure you can imagine it will affect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents an interesting week to say the least without any surprises popping up during the course of it.

If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me (Daniel Wright) directly djw@currencies.co.uk I welcome all enquiries for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.

 

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