Category Archives: AUD

Rates still remain steady awaiting the next move regarding Greece (Daniel Wright)

As another day passes without an agreement regarding Greece the GBP/EUR rate of exchange has remained rather steady apart from a quick Sunday night spike once again as covered in the previous article.

This is still having an impact on all major currencies and continues to be the main talking point on the currency markets at present. Any news to do with Greece is having an effect on global attitude to risk which can impact the perceived safer havens (USD,CHF) and also the riskier currencies (AUD,NZD,ZAR).

When it looks like there may be an agreement in place you would expect the safer havens to weaken off, making them a little cheaper to purchase and the riskier currencies to get stronger as confidence and certainty creeps back into the global market.

Should this really blow up and no agreement be made then I would not be surprised to see Sterling head back down towards 1.50 against the Dollar and to potentially break through the 2.10 mark against the Australian Dollar for the first time in many years.

I really do hope for the Greek people that something is resolved soon as for the general public over there this is far from ideal and I really do feel for them.

The next 24-48 hours will be vital not only for Greece but for where currency rates will head next I have no doubt about that. I personally would not be surprised to see something cobbled together to patch over the problems which may give the Euro a little certainty and strength for the time being and that we will be talking about this situation for many months to come!

If you have a currency exchange to carry out either imminently or in the coming weeks or months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as I will be able to help you both with getting a fantastic rate of exchange and with timing the transfer as well.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you to discuss your currency needs.

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Strong (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile week for Sterling, with big swings against most of the major currencies. We saw GBP/EUR rates spike back to an 8 year high before falling away during the week and with global uncertainty due to the Greek crisis, we have seen investors sell off their EUR positions. This has helped boost the USD, which is always considered a safe haven currency in times of global unrest and in turn this has boosted the Greenbacks position against Sterling over the past couple of days.

The biggest swing we have seen however has come today on GBP/AUD rates, which has seen the Pound gain over 2 cents and moved the pair back out to a fresh 6 year high. Australian Retail Sales figures were released overnight and came out worse than expected at 0.3%. This coupled with positive UK data this week has helped boost Sterling’s value and I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current spike and not gamble on such a volatile market.

GBP/EUR rates have dipped from the high of last weekend but still look very attractive for EUR buyers. With so much uncertainty surrounding Greece it is very difficult to predict exactly how the situation will evolve. Personally I feel a deal will be reached next week but with a referendum scheduled for Sunday, when the Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the proposals being put forward by Greece’s creditors, we may find the landscape and market conditions have changed considerably by then.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Just what will happen with Greece and how will this impact sterling exchange rates?

Trying to figure out what is next with Greece is a very difficult thing. We just don’t know how the markets will react when there is such a wide range of outcomes! The sensible thing in this case is to plan for all eventualities I feel and take stock of the current rates. Do not be upset if you find out that the rate you had been expecting and banking on is no longer available next week! Trying to make plans in such an uncertain market is of course no easy feat but something I would suggest doing in this environment.

If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling the current exchange rates are much improved compared to recent years. There is a strong likelihood they could dip once a Greek deal is achieved since many foreign currencies will strengthen as investor confidence returns to the market. The Euro will rise on the back of any positive news for Greece and commodity currencies like the AUD, NZD and CAD will also strengthen. The USD should weaken as it goes against the trend, tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll for the US is the big news for the end of the week. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Currency Exchange Forecast – When to BUY or SELL GBP / EUR / USD ( Andrew Bromley )

Once again Greece is the main on-going focus, with even the BBC printing articles indicating a Greek exit. Sundays emergency referendum has the makings of the ‘beginning of the end’ for the Greek membership of the Eurozone, as Alexis Tsipras (Greek PM) is openly recommending a NO vote. This would essentially cut Greece out of the Euro and Eurozone and a return of the Drachma could be on the cards. I personally do think that the Greek people will vote NO, however the exit from the Eurozone will be a drawn out as their debt negotiations!

I’d be looking to SELL Euros whilst rates are in the 1.40s as there is a much greater risk of rates pushing higher than dropping to say 1.35! Euro buyers may be wise to move when rates push north of 1.4125…

Unspectacular GDP details this morning have not boosted the Pound – neither did the Eurozone inflation figures that were released shortly after…

USD

Key US Nonfarm Payroll figures dominate this weeks USD data, as Dollar holders hope for both an improved unemployment figure and a good amount of new jobs created.

I personally think that the 1.57s are the top of the current trading range with a move back towards the 1.50 level more realistic. Although this won’t be a swift drop I wouldn’t be surprised to see levels get to 1.55 by the end of the week.

The Dollar should also benefit from a flow of currency from Euro holders as fear of a Greek exit will tempt investors to leave the single currency.

If you do have an exchange requirement feel free to get in touch. Either drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk or call the trading line directly on 01494 787 478.

look forward to hearing from you…

 

Greece to leave the Euro? Exchange Rate Forecast – When to BUY or SELL EUR USD – Andrew Bromley

Eurozone – Euro Crisis

2015 is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic years in recent trading history. This weekends shock move towards a Greek debt default has made predicting the outcome even harder. I personally remain of the opinion that Greece will remain in the Eurozone and Euro, but tomorrows repayment of €1.6 Bn Euros looks set to be unpaid. With a payment of over €3 Bn due next month

Greece has declared this week as a public holiday in order to set up for an extraordinary referendum on Sunday as to whether or not to stay in the Eurozone.

Here’s a point to note… The average Greek pensioner has had their payments cut by 40% and are supporting 3 generations. Why would they vote to stay in the Eurozone when there is no light at the end of the tunnel?!

Obviously that is an opinion and realistically what the negotiating parties are attempting to avoid. Could we see yet another extension to say March 2016??

All in all things are pretty bleak for Euro holders, especially those holding their Euros in  Greece. Unfortunately Greece look set to implement capital controls, preventing withdrawals of over €60 per day from leaving the banks. This too little too late as over €1 Bn has been leaving the country daily for the last few weeks, drastically wiping value off of the bank balance sheets.

Those with Euros to sell, you should have nerves of steel if you’re considering holding on! Not only is the Greek situation so dire but if you’re buying GBP, don’t expect the Pound to hand much ground back to the ‘single currency’. With the UK set to raise interest rates in 2016 it should go from strength to strength.

USD Forecast

A tricky Nonfarm Payroll announcement is the key data for the week, this Thursday rather than Friday (due to Independence Day on Friday). I’m personally still in the camp believing a rate hike will materialise in September. A strong ‘print’ for the Nonfarm figures would certainly be good news for the Greenback and would certainly turn some of the analysts against the hike in to a more positive position. Crucially the unemployment rate has worsened over the last few months – it is important to see this improve.

CAD Exchange Rates

A big swing has been seen as the weekend closed in the 1.93s, recovering to the 1.95s comfortably this afternoon. Feel free to take a look at www.cadforecast.com for a more in-depth CAD overview. I personally think the Pound is heading to the 2.0 level but with a few slips en-route. I’d therefore look at fixing whilst the market is 1.95 and above to secure levels that offer currently a 7 year high.

If you have a currency transfer and would like to discuss it feel free to drop me a line. I can assist you in achieving award winning exchange rates, but also simplifying the process…

(The currencies discussed are a snapshot – all ‘major’ currency requirements looked at!)

Either email me – AJB@currencies.co.uk

or call the trading line 01494 787 478 and quote this blog!

Have a good evening

Andrew Bromley

 

 

Greek Bailout Negotiations Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rate continue to be affected by the unstable economic situation in Greece and as a result we have seen the Pound spike back above 1.40 this week. The Greek debt crisis continues to dominate headlines and with no agreement yet in place and with Tuesday’s repayment deadline fast approaching, the situation is looking very grave indeed.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has today resumed talks with Greece’s creditors, in the hope that an agreement can finally be reached after days of unproductive talks. Whilst Greece is trying to provide a reform package that will satisfy its international creditors, it is refusing to budge on key issues including pensions and public-sector wages. This is proving to be a major sticking point and unless Greece will negotiate the IMF’s position is unlikely to change. If an agreement is not reached then Greece will be given no further funds from their bailout package and will default on their debt, a scenario which is likely to spell the end of their participation in the single union.

However, I am still of the opinion that this scenario remains unlikely, certainly in the short-term. The IMF & ECB have remained steadfast in their support of Greece’s continuation as a member of the EUR and far too time, energy and most importantly money has been thrown at the situation for them to allow to implode. ECB President Mario Draghi will not want to lose Greece on his watch and my instinct tells me that they will most likely come to an 11th hour solution, which will sweep this under the carpet for another 6 months until we find ourselves in a similar situation again.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Currency Forecast – EUR USD Forecast – Andrew Bromley

Pound / Euro Forecast

Another huge day for the Eurozone today, as the world watches and awaits news of a bailout. The ‘Grexit’ news is being heavily coved by all forms of press, both local and international, making the negotiations impact the market with greater effect. This morning has seen GBP-EUR creep over the 1.40 level, as traders on European markets move the markets with their trades. Although my on-going belief is that Greece will secure a resolution (in my opinion an extension to March 2016), don’t expect it to be a smooth ride! Even yesterday Alexis Tsipras provided unacceptable negotiation documents to the European Heads of State, delaying the meetings yet further!

Should Greece secure or look set to secure a bailout, expect the Euro to strengthen somewhat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction back to the 1.35 level but realistically only once all outstanding aspects (State Pensions etc) have been sorted. At the same time however one shouldn’t ignore the risk of ‘capital controls’ being imposed. Capital Controls are a limit on withdrawal from state banks as at the moment there is over €1 Bn leaving Greek Banks every day! This would be a tragedy for those holding Euros in Greece, currently an incredibly risky location for your currency!

I personally think that with rates within roughly 1 cent for their recent high, the risk of a rapid decline in rates far outweighs the potential gain of a further cent on the exchange rate. I’d therefore be Buying Euros as soon as possible. If you are selling Euros, the first thing I’d do is get them back to ‘Blighty’ where they are safe! Once repatriated, I’d then be looking to secure a rate to SELL should the market hit 1.36 or less.

With the general outlook for the UK positive and an interest rate hike due in early 2016, I don’t think that exchange rates will dip much below 1.35. Euro sellers should look at this as a potential opportunity to sell before rates push on!

USD Exchange Rate Outlook

The next move for the US Dollar is one of the most heavily published and talked about moves across all media forms. There are many analysts indicating that the Interest Rate increase would strengthen the Dollar too much and subsequently do damage to US Exports. I personally feel that although the Rate Hike would prevent some economic risks, the Federal Reserve will still go ahead. Former murmurings had been for either a June or September hike – I am very much in the camp expecting a hike in September and feel that 1.50 and below is more of a realistic direction for the pair. The Fed have formally indicated that data will guide the decision to hike and with improved ‘Nonfarm Payroll’ figures and retail sales, good progress is being made. We did see a slight slip in the Unemployment rate, however I wouldn’t be surprised if that is corrected at the next print in early July.

USD traders should be wary of Durable Goods figures this afternoon and US GDP figures tomorrow at 13:30.

If I were buying USD I’d be taking advantage of current levels and if selling, aiming for levels either side of 1.50 depending on the timescale available…

Finally, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar traders should seriously consider their position in the market! Rates are hitting dizzy heights as the global demand in the commodities slows and impacts their economies. I feel threat the NZD will potentially fall back to the 2.20 level and AUD to 2.0 so in my opinion – buy the Dollars now!!

It is also worth looking at buying CHF (Swiss Francs) and Canadian Dollars as rates are incredibly favourable! 

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to get in touch. There are various options available should you not have the full amount of funds in your account at this time (almost buy now pay later).

Either drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 (please quote this blog).

Have a good day!

Andrew Bromley

 

Rates hinge on political negotiations over the weekend, and into the start of next week (Daniel Wright)

An extremely strong week for Sterling against all major currencies, and surprisingly a potential ‘Grexit’ did not play a part. Extremely strong wage growth which came in at 1.2% for last month meant that the timeline for the UK raising interest rates moved forward significantly. The knock on effect of this was Sterling strength across the board, as a result we now have hit 1.40 just before the end of trading today.

The Greek situation will be governing rates by the start of next week. While it has deteriorated I am still confident that a Grexit is unlikely. Thousands gathered in Athens to stay in the Euro. A last minute deal is simply expected so that the Greek delegation can maximize what they want out of an agreement. To default and leave the Euro will be ruinous. But market uncertainty in the meantime may push rates a little bit higher. It is best to play it by ear and watch the news. Call 01494 787 487 on Monday morning and ask for Daniel, I will have a clearer picture of the situation and what the roadmap for currency rates will be for the week, which I can share so we can manage your currency requirement effectively.

The main winners this week were those looking to buy USD. While a potential interest rate rise for the UK was moved closer from the horizon, the opposite was true for the US. This was a result of a dovish stance presented by the FED following poor inflation, wage growth, and no change in unemployment for the month. The rates are now the best they have been in 2015. Because the rates are so favourable, I would encourage people who have a Dollar requirement to try and move sooner rather than later.

It is very hard for currency exchange rates to break 1.60. Normally the markets start to buy dollars while the rates are still favourable and this causes the rates to fall once more. What I would suggest is emailing me over the weekend on djw@currencies.co.uk to discuss setting limit orders on rates slightly higher then they currently are at 1.585, to try and get the most Dollars possible with your sterling and before the markets begin to correct themselves. Even if that rate is hit for a second before the Dollar begins to strengthen again, you can buy at the high of the market, something few manage as the market has been so volatile recently.

Another winner this week has been GBP/CAD rates. Now at a 7 year high, demand for more information on the Canadian Dollar has led to a sister site purely dedicated to this currency to be developed. Click here for expert opinions on buying and selling opportunities for the Canadian Dollar.

Exchange Rate Forecast – US Dollar – Euro ( Andrew Bromley )

GBP Rally

The Pound had an incredibly strong trading day yesterday as positive sentiment from the Bank of England Minutes tied in with and exit from ‘Deflation’. The Bank of England removed from it’s on-going statement an indication that they could either raise or lower interest rates, meaning analysts have strengthened their predictions to an Interest Rate hike around the turn of the year. This helped the Pound to gain roughly 1 cent against the Euro (towards the 1.40 level) and nearly 2 cents against the Dollar (at time of print rates are in the 1.58s). Although it is clear that the Bank of England have a good understanding as to how to guide the UK Economy forwards, it must be noted that the failing sectors (primarily UK exports) are failing due to the strength of the Pound against weakening currencies. I would tread very carefully when gambling on achieving 1.42 buying Euros and 1.60 on the US. If these levels do materialise they wont be around for long!

USD Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve kept the rate hike on the back burner last night, in line with expectation. Speculation has cooled of late as to the timing of the hike and is a question of when not if. The US recorded a strong print of ‘Nonfarm’ jobs and had previous months figures revised up, but the feeling in the press is that the strong US Dollar has had a negative impact on the US economic progress. I personally feel that the US will align for a hike in September as although there is a chance of a negative impact, it provides a greater level of flexibility for monetary policy. It should be noted that a vast amount of the USD weakening has been from speculation and comments from market analysts, with the only weighted statement coming in May from IMF President Christine Lagarde. The FED don’t tend to care what external sources are saying, so if the plan is to hike in September expect that to happen! Last nights meeting carried no market settling statement so it will be interesting to see the minutes in two weeks time!

This afternoon is US Inflation data with an expectation for improvement. There’s a good chance that the Dollar could gain back some of its lost ground.

 

If you have an exchange requirement please feel free to get in contact. We are able to assist with most major currencies, be it buying now or fixing a rate for the future.

Feel free to drop me a line on 01494 787 478 (please quote this blog) or email me AJB@currencies.co.uk

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