Category Archives: AUD

Italian referendum this weekend to be key for exchange rates early next week (Daniel Wright)

So another referendum is due to happen this weekend, this time over in Italy. Unlike the recent one in the U.K this is not a vote to leave the EU but a vote on constitutional reform.

This is extremely key as it may result in another heavy bout of uncertainty for Italy should the vote got the wrong way for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has already warned that should the vote go against him and stop him from making certain changes that he feels he need to make then he would be looking to step down.

We already have various economic issues for Italy, most notably the banks who appear to be struggling and walking a bit of a tightrope, so should we then see huge political uncertainty added to Italian woes then the Euro may have a bad start to next week and you may potentially see GBP/EUR exchange rates go above 1.20 again in trading early next week.

Considering exchange rates against the Euro were lingering around the 1.10 mark merely a few weeks ago, anyone looking to buy Euros must be looking at the markets with a small smirk on their face as their pending purchase has got a lot cheaper recently.

Sunday night/Monday morning will be the next point of interest for anyone with a Euro interest and with so many other large decisions pending within Europe over the next few months I firmly believe the next 12 months are going to be extremely testing for the Euro.

We cannot forget there is also an election in Austria this weekend too with the far right party holding a great chance of success, causing more issues politically within the area.

All of these referendums and elections will impact all major currencies as we will see alterations in global attitude to risk, so the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR may lose strength and those that are perceived as safer havens may gain ground if results cause uncertainty.

If you have any currency to exchange, no matter where you are based then we can help you out here. Should you wish to have a friendly, proactive and experienced broker on your side then we always welcome new clients to get in touch. I have personally been assisting clients moving money overseas and bringing money back for nearly 10 years so you can be confident that your transaction will be dealt with smoothly, securely and at the best rate of exchange.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk should you be in this position and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to speaking with you.

Another Volatile Day for Sterling! (Matthew Vassallo)

It was another volatile day for Sterling yesterday, with the Pound spiking up to a high of 1.1956, before retracting back towards 1.18 by close of European trading.

The Pound received another welcome boost following apparent comments made by Boris Johnson, regarding the free movement of people within the UK following our upcoming Brexit. This immediately gave the Pound market support, with GBP/EUR rates spiking off the back of it. Johnson was quick to speak out against this and claimed he had in fact never made the statement and the Pound lost value as quickly as it had gained it.

There were further comments made by Brexit secretary who clarified the government’s stance to some extent, by claiming the UK would consider contributing to the EU budget in order to guarantee the best possible access for goods and services to Europe. This more official statement is likely to help support the Pound over the coming days but whether it is enough to push GBP/EUR rates back towards the 1.20 mark is unclear.

Yesterday’s rates were the best in over three months for those clients holding GBP and I’m still of the opinion that clients should be looking at these short-term improvements as a window of opportunity. I’m still not convinced that any further Sterling strength will be sustainable under current market conditions, with so much uncertainty still engulfing the UK economy. We still have no clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit and with the high court ruling in regards to the triggering of Article 50 still to be ratified by the Supreme Court, who knows what the state of play will be, come the start of 2017.

Sterling has gained over 4 cents in the past few weeks, which on a £100,000 GBP/EUR exchange would be the equivalent of an additional 4000 EUR and considering how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors, this could the opportunity clients have been waiting for.

For the more risk adverse this month’s Italian referendum could put additional pressure of the Eurozone economy. If the Italian public vote NO to the reforms then current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to step down, which could pave the way for the far right party to gain support. This would increase the likelihood of a another referendum on Italy’s future participation in the EU and the EUR could come under pressure as a result.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro and Dollar rates soar from Boris and David’s comments (Joshua Privett)

Fresh two and a half month highs were reached earlier today on buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates following surprising and contentious comments made by the men spearheading the Brexit project.

David Davis and Boris Johnson, the Brexit Secretary and the Foreign Secretary respectively, have come out this morning seemingly having taken a U-turn on key positions which financial markets pounced on immediately. At its peak GBP/EUR bridged 1.1950, GBP/USD breached 1.2690 and GBP/AUD just pipped over 1.7150.

Financial markets have made no secret that they want the UK to remain part of the single market. Collectively there is greater appetite for investment in the Pound if they know the transition away from the EU is expected to be gentler – hence the term ‘soft Brexit’.

Johnson, as was shown all over major newspapers today, has stated privately to ambassadors that he was ‘all for’ free movement of people. And David Davis has stated that the UK will likely continue to pay for preferential access to the single market today in a statement in the House of Commons.

An utter reversal on both Government and Boris’s own public opinions stated recently, and the greater likelihood of a softer Brexit suggested in the comments saw the Pound soar against all major pairings, with buying Euros and US Dollar buyers being the key winners.

However, as the day waned on the ‘run’ on the Pound began to lose its momentum and eventually fell back heavily. Speculators taking profit from such serious movements today are seen as the root cause.

Moving forward, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD exchange rates will need to navigate the upcoming Italian Referendum and US non-farm payroll figures.

The US figures are to be released tomorrow lunchtime and the Italian Referendum results are expected on Monday.

The referendum will be key for buying Euro rates as a NO result will likely mean the rise of the far right over in Italy, and create further questions marks regarding the Eurozone’s future. Polls are currently neck and neck, but heavy movement is expected on Monday either way. As such a premium will be put on being able to move quickly on Monday to secure tempting levels or protect yourself from any sudden downturns.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a foreign currency requirement using Sterling should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer to safeguard it from any adverse movements and to discuss how best to seize any particularly tempting levels which emerge in the short term.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

I will also remind our regular readers that if you are looking to be securing an exchange rate for a future purchase based on the recent improvements in the Pound, this is easily done using a forward contract, whereby the rate is pre-booked at today’s levels to be utilized for a later date. Again simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss this further.

Sterling exchange rates enter December in good health, but will the Pound continue to climb? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is entering the new month in a much stronger position than it entered November, after the currency gained an impressive 4.5% against the Euro through last month as well as performing well against a number of other major currencies.

Yesterday afternoon the Pound spiked upward against the Euro, as did the US Dollar, after both UK GILT (bonds issued by the UK government) and US government issued bond yields both increased in anticipating of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank, (ECB) and also expectations of an aggressive fiscal plan by the US President elect Donald Trump.

Whilst complicated the result was Sterling strength across the board.

People planning on converting Pounds into another major currency such as the US Dollar, the Euro or the Australian Dollar for example have been presented with a much more attractive opportunity than this time last month, due to the Pounds unexpected gains off the back of the unexpected election of Trump.

Personally, I think the Pound may gain further on the Euro as we enter December and the Italian Referendum this weekend may be the catalyst. If the Italian Prime Minister (Matteo Renzi) is unsuccessful in his plan to change the Italian constitution in order to reform the banking system in Italy, I think we could see further Euro weakness as soon as next week. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated on this topic.

Those in the process of buying property abroad or moving large amounts of money internationally have the chance to save thousands if we compare the Pounds value now compared with just a month ago, and with the help of a specialist currency exchange brokerage like ourselves we can help clients get even more for their money as our rates can improve on the banks offerings by between 1-4%.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me over the phone on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe if I don’t answer myself. 

 

The ‘Trump Train’ market surge fades but Sterling manages to hold on to it’s gains, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has surged across the board through November for a number of reasons, with the main catalysts being the likely delay to invoking Article 50 and beginning the Brexit process, and Trumps election victory in the US boosting sentiment surrounding the UK economy.

Those planning on converting Pounds into another foreign currency have been dealt a good hand this month, as the Pound has gained clawed back quite alot of it’s losses since the Brexit vote.

This month alone the Pound has gained 5 cents vs the US Dollar and 7 cents vs the Euro. In monetary terms a £200,000 GBP to EUR currency exchange is now gaining an additional €15,000+ in the space of 30 days which just highlights the importance of timing large currency conversions.

As a specialist currency brokerage we’re here to monitor the currency markets on behalf of our clients, and in volatile trading conditions like we’ve seen this month our service can really save clients large amounts of money due to the assistance with timings and reacting to market movements.

There will be manufacturing and construction figures released later this week which could affect GBP exchange rates depending on their outcome, and if you are planning a currency exchange between the Pound and another major currency and would like to plan around these events, do get in touch regarding timings and exchange rates.

The Pound has so far held onto it’s gains made this month, but currencies do tend to fall quicker than they climb and if some ‘Hard Brexit’ related news is released there is a chance the Pound could lose some or even all of it’s recent gains.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. 

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478. 

Why should you contact us here at Pound Sterling Forecast? (Daniel Wright)

Over the past seven years we have had many clients contact us to see if we can assist them both with the timing of their currency exchange, but also with saving money over their bank or other currency brokerages.

All of the writers here work for one of the largest brokerages in the U.K and between us we have over 70 years experience of helping people send money overseas or bring money back for property purchases, property sales, business transactions or any other reason that involves a currency exchange.

We do not deal with holiday money or cash transactions unfortunately but we do pride ourselves on the very highest level of customer service along with seriously good rates of exchange.

Most of our traders have been doing this longer than our competitors have existed, so by contacting us here at Pound Sterling Forecast you can have the peace of mind that not only will you get a great rate, but your transaction will be handled smoothly and efficiently by a team that know exactly what they are doing.

We love providing our regular readers with up to date and important market information on this site and welcome all new enquiries with a personal response as soon as we possibly can.

Looking at the economic calendar we are fairly thin on the ground for data over the next few days as the month ends but do be wary as you can see fairly large swings for currencies as you near the end of the month as larger corporations net off positions and we start to see month end flows.

If you would like to be kept fully up to date with market movements or you would like to save money on any pending currency exchange you have then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call or reply to you email and answer any questions or queries that you may have. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

Profit taking undermines the Pound – where next for GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD? (Joshua Privett)

Like clockwork speculative trading on Friday has attacked some of the Pound’s heavy gains against the Euro and the Australian Dollar in particular over the past 3 weeks.

After breaching fresh 10 week highs just on Thursday, the Pound was hit on two fronts on Friday.

Firstly, harsh words from the Maltese Prime Minister about the upcoming negotiations with the EU were enough to upset a clearly hypsersensitve market at the moment.

Sterling recouped some of those losses when it was quite clear it was an overreaction to those comments. Though you can’t blame investors for jumping the gun…the last time a few leaders from the Eurozone made comments like that it was the beginning of October and it caused a flash crash on the Pound, with GBP/EUR falling 4 cents as an example.

Following this, the rollercoaster continued for buying Euro and Dollar rates, and the reasoning points to worrying expectations for exchange rates in the latter part of next month.

Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. Essentially many traders are not at their desks so will likely buy up ‘safe haven’ currencies such as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar to avoid coming back to work in January to see hard earned profits lost.

The expected mass sell off of Sterling is why companies and individuals are already planning to protect themselves during this period.

A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday as investors sell off their Sterling to protect themselves heading into the weekend when they are not at their desk.

The fact that this continues to happen is why anyone with a buying Euro, US Dollar, or Australian Dollar requirement should be wary of the Christmas period.

 

If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.

I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.

To avoid the inherant risk of the Christmas period, I would remind our regular readers that you can also ‘pre-book’ your currency at today’s rates for a later period to avoid navigating particularly volatile periods when you have a planned currency exchange in 2017.

Will the pound rise or fall in December?

The pound has had an amazing few weeks going from one of the world’s worst performing currencies to one of the world’s best performing currencies. Investors were bracing themselves for a dreadful finish to a bad year for the pound but now the outlook is a little rosier. Of course the performance of the pound will be interesting to you depending on which currency you are buying or selling against the pound. December has some very important global events alongside key news at home, all of which will shape sterling exchange rates. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound soon or in 2017 December is a key month to be making some plans ahead of!

EURO (GBPEUR) – The Italian Constitutional Referendum is on the 4th December and could easily see a big unwinding of Euro positions. This could give Euro buyers with pounds a nice early Christmas present! The Euro may weaken as political uncertainty in the region becomes a concern, the referendum is on constitutional reform but is turning into a vote on the popularity of Matteo Renzi the current Italian PM. On the 8th December the European Central Bank meet to discuss further QE (Quantitative Easing) measures which could also weaken the Euro.

December is shaping up to be a very volatile month for the Euro. The pound has just hit fresh 2 month highs against the Euro but will this last or could it go even go higher? For more information on this particularly uncertain pair please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk. We could hit over 1.20 so if you are looking to buy at 1.20 or more please let me know.

US Dollar (GBPUSD) – The fallout from Donald Trumps election victory continues mainly in emerging markets but the ascent of the US dollar seems almost unstoppable. One event that could easily half the strength of the US dollar is December 14th the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. With markets pricing in over 90% probability of the US raising their interest rate to 0.75% global markets will be bracing themselves for this important wide reaching event. Expect further US dollar strength but this might lead to unexpected swings on GBPEUR and GBPUSD and investors move funds in and out of the US dollar.

GBPUSD exchange rates have been some of the most volatile in 2016 moving over 30 cents between the high and the low. If you are looking to buy or sell the pound and US dollar then please contact me to discuss the market in depth and all of your options. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a further breakdown of the outlook and best available rates on this volatile pairing.

Jonathan Watson in action!

Jonathan Watson 

I Jonathan Watson have worked as a currency specialist for almost ten years helping business and private clients maximise their currency exchanges. I can offer a full overview of the market and highlight all the important events and your options to help limit your currency exposure. I would be delighted to hear from you and have a chat about our services and how we might help.

To contact Jonathan please email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. Jonathan has appeared on BBC News discussing the EU Referendum and has been quoted in the FT, The Times The Telegraph and many more. 

Buying rates for Euros and Australian Dollars testing new highs, but GBP/USD lagging behind (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has had a fantastic two weeks to say the least after what had been heavy drop after heavy drop on buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange. We are now entering a period of stability following a stint where in two weeks the market has moved more than the last three months combined for GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD.

Buying Euro rates in particular have been the main beneficiary from this recent movement, being hit by a Trump Presidency from two angles which explain the 7% plus gains since November 9th.

Due to the special relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro, a stronger Dollar tends to draw capital away from the Euro. Whilst Trump is a wildcard his very public support for a US interest rate hike in December is fueling heavy Dollar interest, with investors in the Euro diverting their attention to the other side of the Atlantic. The Euro thus deflates as disinterested parties go elsewhere.

Furthermore, the expectation of a change in the US stance of a hostile Obama to a supportive Trump for the UK leaving the European Union has also buoyed market confidence in a better result for the UK in upcoming negotiations.

Now that the Autumn statement has passed, with Hammond’s praise of the positive impact of the Bank of England’s interest rate cut and increase in monetary stimulus suggestive that further emergency stimulus is not necessary in the UK since the vote, the Pound can move forward at its gradual pace of improvement barring any political surprises.

Without much economic data out between now and the beginning of December when the cycle begins once again with a fresh look at November, buying Euro and Australian Dollar rates will likely continue to benefit from a stronger Pound.

Apart from the unknowable factor which is the Supreme Court’s decision over the role of Parliament in the Brexit to be decided on December 10th, red flags and flashing sirens are abound for anyone with a GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD, or GBP/USD requirement in the latter part of December.

Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday, so feel free to have a look at rates on Friday afternoon to see if this materializes and get a better understanding of how markets are functioning at the moment.

In the meantime, Sterling buyers may be wise to move quite quickly if the time period for your transfer does not allow for you to wait for this latter December period.

Conversely Euro and Australian Dollar buyers may be wise to monitor market rates over the next few weeks, particularly in the run up to December 10th.

If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.

I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.

I will answer your email as soon as I am able to since time can very regularly be of the essence when it comes to currency queries. Please feel free also to contact me 01494 787 478 during office hours (8:30-6pm) and ask the reception team to be put through to my line (Joshua).

 

Sterling exchange rates boosted after the Autumn Budget, will the Pound continue to strengthen? (Joseph Wright)

The current levels for converting Pounds into other major currencies are surprisingly attractive when we consider the outlook for the Pound just a few weeks ago.

I think that people planning on converting their Pounds into another major currency, for a property purchase for example, have been dealt a fortunate hand as the Pound hit a 2-month high yesterday on a trade weighted basis, whereas just a few weeks ago the pound was trading at over 5 year lows against the Euro and at over 30 year lows against the US Dollar.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is now trading closer to 1.20 than 1.10 after gaining 7 cents off the back of Donald Trump’s election victory. The UK economy, and therefore the Pound, has been boosted by the ‘Trump train’ after his warm words about the relationship between the UK and US in his campaign. Barack Obama had previously said the UK would be at the back of the queue on business deals whereas Trump said the opposite, and Trump also has a number of interests in the UK.

The gains for the Pound against the Euro specifically are extensive, making a €200,000 purchase £10,650 cheaper.

The Pound was boosted further yesterday afternoon after the Autumn Budget sprung no surprises. I do think that those planning on converting Pound into another major currency should watch the rates and news as the Pound could come crashing down quicker than it’s risen as is usually the case.

If you are planning a currency conversion involving the Pound, it’s worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in and ask reception to speak with me (Joe) on 01494 787 478.