Category Archives: AUD
Sterling has another exceedingly volatile day against Euro, Dollar and all majors – Global markets remain fragile (Daniel Wright)
It has been yet another busy day on the trading floor and we have seen yet another volatile 24 hours for Sterling exchange rates.
Markets around the world appear to be exceedingly nervous at present and there is a little worry that we may have one hell of a storm brewing ahead.
In the past year we have seen issues with the European economy, issues with the Chinese economy, oil prices dropping off, bank share prices plummet and the potential of any interest rate hike for the U.K slowly but surely be kicked further and further down the road so it is no surprise that the markets are acting a little out of the ordinary.
My personal opinion is still that Sterling is a little undervalued however when you do see negative movements like we have witnessed of late then the question does start to arise of how much further can it drop before we see a recovery? We all wish we truly knew the answer to this question as we would make a great deal of money…
The key with these sort of situations if you are due to be making a large exchange is to make sure you protect your position. Many people fall into the trap of thinking that they have to carry out their currency needs in one large chunk, and to time that correctly is almost impossible, along with the fact that you leave yourself extremely exposed.
If you are in the position that you do need to buy or sell a large quantity of currency for your business or indeed for the purchase or sale of a property then it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly so that I can work together with you to try and maximise your money. I have been assisting clients in this position for nearly 10 years and I have been writing on this site for over 5 years so I am well positioned to not only help you get top commercial rates of exchange but also to ensure you have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side at all times.
If you are stuck in a tricky position due to the latest movements and you are finding that you are stuck on your own with nowhere to turn the feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be more than happy to call you personally. You can email me on email@example.com or call me on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours of 08:30am – 18:00pm (please ask for Daniel Wright). You do not need to be based in the U.K for us to be able to help you.
It seems the only currency that Sterling had any gains against yesterday was on GPB/AUD, as rates for buying Euros (GBP/EUR) and for buying Dollars (GBP/USD), saw a fourth consecutive negative day in the currency markets.
This was seen most prominently in rates to buy Euros, which have come down by over 1% each day this week, and a total fall over the past 5 business days of nearly 6 cents.
The reasoning behind this hasn’t really changed since mid-December, it has simply become more obvious; the British economy is slowing.
Due to flooding and slowdown in global growth, alongside falling prices for commodities such as oil, growth forecasts for the UK have been revised downwards across most sectors – particularly for manufacturing, industrial and retail.
What’s most concerning compared to December is that we are also beginning to see a slow-down in the financial services sector as well, which has been hit for continuous slides in global stock and commodity prices. Mass sell-offs of shares is hitting the confidence in the UK financial sector to continue to perform and make-up for shortfalls elsewhere in UK GDP, which is translating into weaker confidence in the Pound.
George Osborne himself said that this would be the most difficult year for the UK economy since the financial crisis, and immediately his words have become prophetic since we’re only into the second week of February.
A global slowdown is not a short-term phenomenon, and particularly against the Euro the Pound is in for a difficult year with the Eurozone beginning to finally benefit from the emergency financial stimulus they introduced in January 2015. Their growth figures are up which is why Sterling has performed the worst against the Euro in recent weeks.
I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy in the short or medium term (3 months), should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.
Whilst the outlook is concerning, currency markets rarely move in a straight line, and opportunities may present themselves in the short-term after such significant movements. Any favourable exchange rates reached can actually be fixed to avoid further harmful movement affecting your transfer.
Anyone looking to purchase Sterling can do the same, and I will explain how best to ride any further movements in your favour expected to their peak in the time period you have to complete your transfer. firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling’s struggles have continued this week and despite a slight recovery against the USD, the general trend has certainly been negative. The downward spiral coincided with the start of 2016 and the Pound has failed to replicate the good feeling of last year and this has been reflected in the current exchange rates.
GBP/EUR rates have dropped below 1.30 today and as I’ve discussed in previous posts, this is a key resistance level for the Pound. If we see another aggressive move for the EUR the Pound may struggle to break back through it and whilst my underlying feeling has been that the Pound would start to find some support, the current trend is concerning for those clients holding GBP.
It is slightly better news for those clients looking to purchase USD, with the Pound fighting back over the past 48 hours. The pair is floating around 1.45 having spent most of last month closer to 1.40. Poor employment figures in the US have helped to stem the flow but based on the current economic climate in the UK, I am not anticipating this positive spike to continue. As we move through the year we may see Sterling improve, as the US elections are likely to cause some uncertainty and the hope for those clients holding GBP is that 1.40 will provide some protection if the rates do start to drop again.
Much of the focus this week has been on the UK and with key data releases yesterday, investors were dubbing it ‘Super Thursday’. Unfortunately it was anything but and the Pound suffered as a result. The Bank of England’s (BoE) UK Inflation Report made for grim reading and with BoE governor Mark Carney cutting growth forecasts in the UK, I’m not expecting a major improvement for Sterling in the short-term.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the reception team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com
Sterling has lost value against the majority of major currency pairings. This is due to the factors listed below:
- The EU referendum, during times of political uncertainty the currency in question will weaken. With no resolution for some time this will weigh heavily on the Pound.
- Poor Retail Sales Figures
- Poor Manufacturing Data
- Well below Par Inflation – Inflation currently sits at 0.1% and the target is 2%
- China’s slow down in Growth
The Euro has benefited from China’s slow down with many Investors flooding back to the Euro. This is due to carry trading, where an investor would borrow a currency at a low interest rate, eg the Euro and invest in a riskier currency eg AUD,NZD for higher returns. The global uncertainty sparked by the situation in China has caused investors to panic and move back to the Euro. This combined with the poor data has caused GBP/EUR to drop from 1.42 in December to the low 1.30s where we sit now. It is definitely going to be difficult for Sterling to recover. A big swing could occur if the head the ECB implements lager monthly increments in the Quantitative Easing (QE) Program.
QE is essentially pumping money into a struggling economy in order to stimulate growth. The first opportunity for this to occur will be March. For that reason if I was a Euro seller I may consider moving before. The key data release this week will be the BOE interest rate decision on Thursday. If there is a change in the MPC vote we could see swing si in GBP/EUR value. If you would like a more detailed forecast taking in to account your personal currency requirement please do not hesitate to get in touch using the contact details below.
Due to the Fed introducing a rate hike in December and indicating further rate hikes in 2016 I do not think there is much hope for the Pound against the Greenback for the foreseeable future. I think the general trend will be a drop in Sterling value. There will no doubt be small Spikes in favour of the Pound but it you will have to follow the markets very closely in order to take advantage of these windows of opportunity. Watch out for Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday afternoon which is renowned for creating market volatility. If you would like an expert opinion on when would be a wise time to move on your trade please do drop me an email.
The RBA recently decided against a rate cut despite China’s growth slipping to a twenty-five year low. The Aussie currently stands firm.I do not think a rate hike is out of the question in March however which could bring Sterling back towards the 2.10 level. AUD sellers have to be particularly wise in order take advantage of their trade. Keep in mind resistance levels when you are choosing your target rate.
Timing a trade correctly is vital to maximising your return, with the help of a broker you can expect to be kept up to date with vital data releases and market movement. My clients have been extremely happy with the way their trades have worked out as of late and I would would take pleasure in assisting any new clients with their trade. I will also guarantee to beat any competitors exchange rate. If you have a currency requirement I would recommend getting in touch by e-mailing me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading my blog it is greatly appreciated I look forward to hearing from you.
The week ahead for Sterling exchange rates – Economic data of interest and contract types that may assist you (Daniel Wright)
So we have another busy week ahead for Sterling exchange rates including an interest rate decision for Australia tonight, Unemployment data for New Zealand tomorrow night, Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday lunchtime followed by Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday afternoon.
There is indeed plenty for the market to feel off of this week and I would expect some fairly large swings, especially for the Antipodean currencies (Australian and New Zealand Dollar) overnight early in the week. With the possibility of such large movements overnight it is key that you have protection in place should you be looking to carry out a currency exchange in the near future.
All the writers here at Pound Sterling Forecast work for a currency brokerage with a turnover of over half a billion Pounds a year, which means we have access to fantastic rates of exchange. Even if you feel you are getting a good deal elsewhere at the moment I would be extremely surprised if we couldn’t do better for you. You can email me (Daniel Wright) the creator and main editor of this site on email@example.com with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be happy to contact you personally. You can also call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (please ensure you ask for Daniel Wright).
We have a number of contract types that can help you during such volatile times including the following:
Forward contract: This is where you can lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to two years in advance with just a small deposit. This is really handy for anyone buying or selling a property overseas that would like to protect some or even all of their funds against currency fluctuations. I see time and time again clients agreeing to purchase a property overseas and putting down a deposit only to find themselves in a tricky situation later down the line when coming to pay for the balance on the property because the rate has dropped so much. For some reason even the most sensible people decide to effectively gamble thousands of Pounds based purely on hope over actually having knowledge that an exchange rate will go their way. firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like more information.
Limit order: If there is a particular rate of exchange you would like to achieve but the market just is not there yet then you can place a limit order into the market. This order is free and can be cancelled or amended at any time you like as long as it has not gone through, but basically means that if at any time 24 hours a day/7 days a week your rate becomes achievable then your currency will be bought out automatically and we will just contact you to let you know the good news. email@example.com if you would like more information.
Stop Loss: This contract type is handy if you are working to a tight budget and cannot afford to go any lower than a particular rate and works in a similar way to the limit order above, yet will trigger should your buying rate hit your chosen lowest possible point. Some clients like to ‘chase the market up’ and raise their stop order on a daily basis when the market is moving in the right direction for them. firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like more information.
I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you.
|09:30||UK||GBP||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||51.8||51.9|
|09:30||UK||GBP||Consumer Credit (Dec)||£1.300B||£1.476B|
|09:30||UK||GBP||Mortgage Approvals (Dec)||69.60K||70.41K|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Dec)||0.4%|
|13:30||US||USD||Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (MoM) (Dec)||0.1%||0.1%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Income (MoM) (Dec)||0.2%||0.3%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Spending (Dec)||0.1%||0.3%|
|13:30||US||USD||Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Dec)||0%|
|13:30||US||USD||Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) (Dec)||1.3%|
|14:30||CA||CAD||RBC Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||47.5|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||52.7||52.7|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||48.0||48.2|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Prices Paid (Jan)||34.0||33.5|
|15:00||US||USD||Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec)||0.6%||-0.4%|
|16:00||EMU||EUR||ECB President Draghi’s Speech|
|18:00||US||USD||Fed’s Stanley Fischer speech|
|TUESDAY, FEB 02|
|03:30||AU||AUD||RBA Interest Rate Decision||2%||2%|
|03:30||AU||AUD||RBA Rate Statement|
|08:15||CH||CHF||Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)||-1.3%||-3.1%|
|08:55||DE||EUR||Unemployment Change (Jan)||-7K||-14K|
|08:55||DE||EUR||Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan)||6.3%||6.3%|
|09:30||UK||GBP||PMI Construction (Jan)||57.6||57.8|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||Unemployment Rate (Dec)||10.5%||10.5%|
|21:30||US||USD||API Weekly Crude Oil Stock||11.4M|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Unemployment Rate (Q4)||6.1%||6.0%|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Employment Change (Q4)||0.8%||-0.4%|
|21:45||NZ||NZD||Participation Rate (Q4)||68.6%|
|WEDNESDAY, FEB 03|
|00:00||NZ||NZD||RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech|
|00:30||AU||AUD||Trade Balance (Dec)||-2,500M||-2,906M|
|01:45||CN||CNY||Caixin China Services PMI (Jan)||50.2|
|02:30||JP||JPY||Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech|
|08:00||EMU||EUR||Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting|
|08:15||ES||EUR||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||54.5||55.1|
|09:00||EMU||EUR||Markit PMI Composite (Jan)||53.5||53.5|
|09:00||EMU||EUR||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||53.6||53.6|
|10:00||EMU||EUR||European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts|
|13:15||US||USD||ADP Employment Change (Jan)||195K||257K|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit PMI Composite (Jan)||53.7|
|14:45||US||USD||Markit Services PMI (Jan)||53.7|
|15:00||US||USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)||55.1||55.3|
|15:30||US||USD||EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 29)||8.383M|
|23:50||JP||JPY||Foreign bond investment (Jan 29)||¥475.3B|
|23:50||JP||JPY||Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Jan 29)||¥-189.2B|
|THURSDAY, FEB 04|
|00:30||AU||AUD||National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4)||0|
|06:45||CH||CHF||SECO Consumer Climate (3m) (Q1)||-18|
|08:00||EMU||EUR||ECB President Draghi’s Speech|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb 4)||0.5%||0.5%|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb)||£375B|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Monetary Policy Summary|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Unchanged||8||8|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Cut||0||0|
|12:00||UK||GBP||BOE MPC Vote Hike||1||1|
|12:00||UK||GBP||Bank of England Minutes|
|12:45||UK||GBP||BOE’s Governor Carney speech|
|13:30||US||USD||Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 29)||278K|
|15:00||US||USD||Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)||-2.6%||-0.2%|
|22:30||AU||AUD||AiG Performance of Construction Index (Jan)||46.8|
|FRIDAY, FEB 05|
|00:30||AU||AUD||Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Dec)||0.5%||0.4%|
|00:30||AU||AUD||RBA Monetary Policy Statement|
|05:00||JP||JPY||Coincident Index (Dec||111.9|
|05:00||JP||JPY||Leading Economic Index (Dec)||103.5|
|13:30||US||USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)||190K||292K|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jan)||2.5%|
|13:30||US||USD||Unemployment Rate (Jan)||5%||5%|
|13:30||US||USD||Labor Force Participation Rate (Jan)||62.6%|
|13:30||US||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)||0.3%||0.0%|
|13:30||US||USD||Trade Balance (Dec)||$-43.0B||$-42.4B|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Unemployment Rate (Jan)||7.1%|
|13:30||CA||CAD||Net Change in Employment (Jan)||22.8K|
|15:00||CA||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan)||42.5|
|15:00||CA||CAD||Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jan)||50.3||49.9|
|18:00||US||USD||Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count||498|
|20:00||US||USD||Consumer Credit Change (Dec)||$16.00B||$13.95B|
I have no doubt this will be a busy week, please do feel free to get in contact with more information on the above or if you have an exchange you with to carry out and you would like to know what rate we can offer you. You can call me on our trading floor 01494 787 478 or email me directly email@example.com and I look forward to assisting you.
Sterling had an incredibly difficult period in January. Rarely is it that currency market movements make the news but the dramatic falls on rates to buy Euros and various Dollars was hard to ignore.
To gain an understanding for how GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD will fare next month it would be invaluable to look back to how the UK economy performed during December and January.
The first few weeks of each month normally see the largest movements for exchange rates on the Pound. This is because the first two weeks are when data for output in various sectors of the economy are tallied and released for the previous month – causing the value of the economy’s currency to change wildly based on how positive or negative the figures released paint the UK to global markets.
This is why the first few weeks of January saw the most serious slides for Sterling’s value, as December was was proven to be a very testing month.
Due to the flooding in the North, West, and later on parts of the South-East, industrial and manufacturing output slowed dramatically.
Even retail sales during the holiday period only grew at a fifth of what was expected.
With the flooding having continued into January, I would not be surprised that the latest set of figures to be released over the coming weeks will be displaying the UK in a fairly unflattering light.
Furthermore, January had seen the added hit to the financial service industry – the engine room of the British economy.
Deteriorating news coming out of China caused the second serious panic on global stock markets since October. With more capital going out of financial markets than going into them, we could see an added dimension to Sterling’s current weakness this month which will create testing times for Euro and Dollar buyers.
I strongly recommend that anyone with foreign currency to buy using Pounds in the coming months should contact me on firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels for Euros and Dollars can be fixed to avoid any further currency movements making your future purchase more expensive.
Another fairly quiet day on the markets today for those with an interest in buying or selling Sterling, however tomorrow I would expect to see a little more volatility.
The last working day of the month can lead to sharp movements without warning as we see month end flows…. basically companies and funds netting off positions in advance of a new month. Quite often on the last working day of the month Sterling can become quite volatile against all major currencies as we see this happen , so it is important if you have a fairly imminent transfer to make that you keep in close contact with a proactive broker.
Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only give you up to date market information but we can help you with exchanges too. We can get the very top levels of exchange on the markets due to our vast buying power and we pride ourselves on helping our clients with the timing of when they exchange their currency. If you would like me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site and a Director at Currencies.co.uk to help you with a transaction or merely to give you a quote then feel free to email me personally on email@example.com and I will be more than happy to get straight in touch.
Economic data of note tomorrow is European inflation data, out at 10:00am (expectations are for a jump to 0.4%) which may give the Euro a little boost if matching that figure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall short and to offer an opportunity to purchase Euros at a slightly better rate.
Later in the day we have U.S Growth figures – These are due out at 13:30pm and expectations for this is a level of 0.8%. This release can impact all major currencies as they may alter global attitude to risk.
For those with a Canadian Dollar interest we have growth figures for Canada at exactly the same time so be aware we may see a little volatility shortly after this period.
If you are looking to exchange any currency in the near future then it is well worth getting in touch with me. You can call me during U.K office hours on 01494 787 478 (Please ask for Daniel Wright) or you are welcome to email me with a description of what you need to do on Djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to put together a game plan together with you.