Category Archives: AUD

GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD sliding, only GBP/USD likely to rise (Joshua Privett)

After a dramatic week for the Pound and the intervention of a sitting US President, GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD are starting to move back down after the near two month highs reached yesterday.

This is likely due to poor UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year, which has caused the dominant story of the positive effects of Obama’s visit on the Remain campaign to fade into the background.

The only reason GBP/USD is on the rise is due to poor US housing data.

With popularity ratings higher than our own PM in the UK, Obama’s initially gentle and then firmer suggestions that the UK will be better off in the EU rather than out of it, has been received overwhelmingly positively by financial markets. Frankly, by a surprising amount.

But Polls are still well within the margin of error, and with such a large swathe of the population still undecided, UK based companies will have to seriously re-evaluate their exposure ahead of the Referendum vote. Similar to February when Boris Johnson announced that he was joining the Leave campaign, mass Pound sell-offs will likely occur unless the Remain camp accrues a commanding lead.

Particularly since whilst the Remain camp are ahead, polls on voter turnout itself favour the Leave camp overwhelmingly.

In the short term there is no additional data out between now and the start of may which is expected to assist Euro buyers, the final two weeks of each month are relatively quiet compared to the onslaught of information at the beginning, so expect severe volatility on GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD next week.

With rates on GBP/EUR down 0.7 cents and rates on GBP/AUD down 1.4 cents from the highs of yesterday, and with UK growth slowing by a third compared to the previous quarter, this dominant narrative will likely see gradual slides on buying rates in the run up to May.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua. We can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return, particularly those whose requirements may be a month or two away.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed to avoid potential drops on the currency markets as we edge closer to the Referendum affecting your transfer.

Those with more immediate requirements can receive a free, competitive quote, whist Euro and Dollar sellers can reach out and I will outline how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge in the short-term. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rallies Following Positive GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rallied again during Wednesday mornings trading, following better than expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures came in above market expectation at 2.1% growth and this helped to boost Sterling’s value further, following a positive run during the first half of the trading week.

GBP/EUR rates jumped following US President Barack Obama’s comments on the weekend, regarding how Britain would be worse off outside of the EU, comments which boosted market confidence and helped to push the Pound up through 1.29 at this week’s high. This move was intensified following this morning GDP figures and a one point it seemed as though GBP/EUR rates may push 1.30, before the EUR found support snapping back towards 1.2850 by the close of European trading.

It was interesting to note that Sterling’s support waned following a report from White House hopeful Ted Cruz who said that the UK should be ‘at the front of the que’ for a trade deal with the US should we choose to leave the EU after June’s referendum. Whilst I will take these comments with a pinch of salt it comes as a stark reminder that despite this week’s reports indicating that we are more likely to stay than leave, no one actually knows what the outcome will be. The markets are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future and I would not be gambling on huge improvements for the Pound beyond the current levels.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Keep Getting Stronger (Ben Fletcher)

After Barrack Obama heavily involved himself with the Brexit over the weekend, the Remain campaign has increased its slender lead. Over the last 20 days there has been an increase in the GBP/EUR rate of nearly 7 cent which means anyone with £200,000 to change has gained over €11000.

The big question moving forward and what most my clients have asked is will the rate continue to strengthen? I think in the next few weeks there is certainly a chance the rate will remain around a similar level however it seems unlikely that the rate will rise into the mid 1.30’s. I believe as we move towards the actual vote itself there will be uncertainty and the rate will fall again. It’s also worth considering that the Leave campaign has only in the last few weeks been allocated their funding so there will certainly be an onslaught coming soon.

Data releases this week

GDP is released for the UK tomorrow which is expected to show a small reduction in both the month on month and year on year results. On Thursday there is a huge amount of Data being released in Europe on Thursday which is not expected to be particularly good, if the rates rise to the 1.30 level I suggest if you need to buy Euros that would be the time and not to wait.

As a side note this week the Bank of Japan on Thursday are potentially going to introduce further negative interest rates. The Japanese Yen as of recent has received a lot of investment and should the interest rate cut take place I would not be surprised to see money invested into Sterling. An influx of investment could certainly mean Thursday morning could be a great Euro buying window.

If you would like to find out further information with regards to my forecast please reach out to me at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have with regards to the GBP/EUR rate.

Sterling exchange rates continue their surprising climb, offering a great short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound made gains across the board again today, following on from what was a surprising rebound last week which has provided those looking to convert Sterling into another currency, with a great short term opportunity.

As we all know, currency exchange rates don’t move in straight lines and I personally view this recent market movement as a short term opportunity to take advantage of, as opposed to the beginning of long term upward trend for Sterling exchange rates.

I’m of this opinion for a number of reasons. Firstly, I’m not sold on the reasoning behind this recent boost to Sterling’s value. It’s being predominantly put down to the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls suggesting that the ‘Remain’ camp is now in the lead, although I think it takes a bit more than this to shift market’s so substantially and I think speculators, looking to make a quick buck have been bargain hunting in large numbers which has driven up Sterling’s value. Once the profit taking begins I think we can expect sharp falls for the Pound once again, similar to those we saw just a few weeks ago at the beginning of the month.

Also, I think that US President Barack Obama’s recent statements underlining the UK Government’s desire for the UK to stay within the Eurozone has been met well by the marketplace, boosting sentiment for the short term. Once again I’m not expecting this sentiment to last, as it will only take one celebrity or person of significance to lend their support to the ‘Leave’ campaign and leave us with similar market conditions to those just after Boris Johnson opted to support the ‘Leave’ campaign, when Sterling rates of exchange dropped sharply.

There are many arguments in favor of remaining within the Eurozone, and the current polls are suggesting that the UK will. But irrespective of these factors it’s highly likely that we’ll continue to experience headwinds in the lead up to the 23rd of June when we have our vote, therefore investors will need to take advantage of the opportunities that arise in that time and as I’ve previously stated, I think that the current buying opportunities on the likes of GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD will be short term.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 if you would like to discuss anything in further detail, just ask for Joseph. 

 

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

The pound hits its strongest level so far in April… will this last? (Jonathan Watson)

If you are looking to buy a foreign currency with the pound we currently have the best rates to buy Euros and US Dollars with pounds since 30th March! Given that sterling looked close to really sliding into the doldrums only 2 weeks ago this change of circumstance for clients looking to buy or sell the pound has taken many by surprise. The big question is of course will this continue and what can I expect next? Well I think the pound will enjoy a period of fragile stability susceptible to moves lower on bad news but equally supported from the fact the worst fears have not yet and may not yet be realised. If you are buying a foreign currency with the pound I think taking serious stock of this current improvement is very sensible to avoid the risk of further losses down the line.

The recent move higher is clearly not going to last forever! It is almost as if everyone has forgotten that just around the corner is the UK Referendum on EU membership and this could be a major event to move markets and upset the current trend of positive news for sterling. It does appear that the current positive news might not last forever and so if you need to buy currency with the pound making some plans now is sensible.

Tomorrow is the all important Eurozone Interest Decision which is likely to lead to volatility on GBPEUR but may also impact GBPUSD and GBPAUD too. The Eurozone is struggling to maintain a consistent front in terms of its economic position. There is lots of speculation as to whether or not there will be further Interest Rate cuts or further Quantitative Easing. Mario Draghi, President of the ECB has stated he will not need to use these instruments again but markets are predicting they will.

The last ECB meeting on the 10th March saw nearly 4 cents worth of movement on GBPEUR which played havoc with client’s best plans. If you are planning any currency transfers in the coming months making some plans in advance is a wise move! We offer a number of options and a personal proactive service to try and help you get the most from the market.

For more information on the market and what options may suit your position  best please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

All eyes on the European Central Bank this Thursday -Sterling exchange rates in form today (Daniel Wright)

Following another positive day for Sterling exchange rates against most major currencies, it does appear that the Pound is slowly coming back into fashion.

We had very little in terms of economic data out today however there does appear to be a feel good factor surrounding Sterling this week so far. With the Government hell bent on having the U.K remain in the EU I feel that this is what will end up happening and that the markets are starting to correct themselves a little accordingly.

All eyes will no doubt now be on head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi on Thursday as we have the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference at 12:45pm and 13:30pm respectively.

THis release can impact all major currencies and last time we had the ECB press conference, GBP/EUR moved by over 4 cents throughout the afternoon so expect market volatility on Thursday. A 4 cent movement would mean buying €100,000 would cost you an extra £2400 or get £2400 cheaper if it goes the right way for you.

It is highly important to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side during releases such as this and we can help you on that front. We have a range of contract options available including a limit order where you can set a particular rate you wish to buy at, and if you do get a sudden spike then it gets bought automatically.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

What can we expect this week for the pound? (Jonathan Watson)

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Jonathan speaking on BBC NEWS 24 in February

Great British Pound (GBP)

Important news this week for sterling is  Unemployment data on Wednesday which is expected to remain stable at 5.1%, this has been one of the key strengths of the UK economy, if the predicted rise in average earnings from 2.1 – 2.3% rings true sterling could be in for a good day on Wednesday! Thursday is Retail Sales figures which are always a volatile release and can impact markets, if you don’t see the sterling move you are looking for on Wednesday then this could be the one to watch.

In summary sterling should remain in a better position this week, the pound has slipped in recent weeks but found some form last week with better than expected Inflation data and better news concerning the government. David Cameron’s dreadful previous week was recovered from the worst points and a particular damning report by the Treasury on the Brexit has reconfirmed the governments position potentially further aiding the Remain camp. I expect this report and better UK data to help give the pound a lift by the end of the week but a lift that will be rather fragile when we (and financial markets) take into consideration the Referendum only 9 weeks away!

EURO (EUR)

A fairly tame start to the week with some Construction and Current Account figures gives way to a busy end of the week as Friday sees Manufacturing and Services data for the Eurozone. Thursday is the key date for the Euro however as we have the European Central Bank decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The last meeting saw almost 4 cents movement in the afternoon and whilst I don’t expect quite the volatility this is usually a volatile time as markets digest Mario Draghi’s assessment of the Eurozone. Following the ECB bazooka of low interest rates and QE last month Inflation has risen which should give Mario Draghi cause for cheer and possibly help the Euro rise.

In Summary the Euro looks set to remain strong but might lose some ground to a stronger pound on Wednesday. Thursday is the key date so if you need to buy Euros moving before Thursday might be sensible, GBPEUR buyers have received almost 3 cents improvements from the lows of April which given the uncertainty ahead should not in my opinion be dismissed too easily.

United States Dollar (USD)

This week is a range of mid tier releases in the US focusing on Housing Starts (Tuesday), Home Sales data (Wednesday) and Jobless Claims (Thursday). The dollar had weakened on the news the Fed were resigned to just the two rate hikes this year but has now found traction again. Two hikes is better than none and with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone still focused on ‘easing’ measures the dollar is still top of the class.

In summary there remains a good chance that the dollar will strengthen further against the pound longer term but this is sterling’s week. If you need to buy dollars with the pound taking advantage of any spike this week is I believe the best way forward.

Do you have a currency transaction to consider involving the pound? If so this week could see a return to favour which given the Referendum ahead is I believe something well worth taking advantage of! For more information on events to be aware of surrounding your currency transaction please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling exchange rates – What to expect next week (Daniel Wright)

We have a number of key data releases out next week around the world, not to forget any further news on the referendum that may throw a little into the mix.

The real key focus for anyone looking to buy or sell Euros will be the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference due out on Thursday afternoon. Investors will be looking for any change in fiscal policy and also just as importantly any indications on future decisions.

Monday, APR 20

24h EMU EUR IMF Meeting
21:45 NZ NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)
21:45 NZ NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q1)
14:00 US USD NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)
TUESDAY, APR 19
01:30 AU AUD RBA Meeting’s Minutes
09:00 DE EUR ZEW Survey – Current Situation (Apr)
09:00 DE EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr)
09:00 EMU EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Apr)
12:30 US USD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
12:30 US USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 AU AUD RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
15:00 CA CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
WEDNESDAY, APR 20
06:00 DE EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
06:00 DE EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
09:00 CH CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations (Apr)
n/a DE EUR 10-y Bond Auction
23:50 JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (Apr 15)
23:50 JP JPY Foreign bond investment (Apr 15)
THURSDAY, APR 21
01:30 AU AUD National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q1)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
08:30 UK GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Mar)
11:45 EMU EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr 21)
12:30 US USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 8)
12:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 15)
12:30 US USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
12:30 EMU EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
13:00 US USD Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
14:00 US USD CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Mar)
FRIDAY, APR 22
04:30 JP JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Feb)
07:30 DE EUR Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
07:30 DE EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
07:30 DE EUR Markit Services PMI (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Business Climate (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Current Assessment (Apr)
08:00 DE EUR IFO – Expectations (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit Services PMI (Apr)
08:00 EMU EUR Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Mar)
13:30 CA CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Mar)
13:45 US USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
13:45 US USD Markit Services PMI (Apr)
13:45 US USD Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
17:00 US USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

If you have a currency exchange to carry out and you would like to know how all of these releases may impact your rate of exchange then we can explain everything to you and help you save a great deal of money.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

How can I protect myself from a falling exchange rate?

There are many options to buy currency which can be very useful with sterling exchange rates as volatile as they currently are. This year has seen the pound fall as fears over the outcome of the EU Referendum have led to investors selling off their sterling holdings. Exchange rates are likely to slip further in the coming weeks as investors fears increase over just what exactly the Brexit entails. This means that if you are buying a foreign currency in the future there is a strong likelihood your exchange rate will get worse and making some plans in advance is sensible.

Buy Now

The best way to predict the future is to create it! As tempting as it is to hang on when considering a foreign currency transaction this can prove very costly if rates unexpectedly move against you and the EU Referendum is just the kind of event to trigger large unexpected sterling losses. Even if you don’t need your funds at this moment making plans to be able to buy your currency now or on any spikes is the sensible thing to do. It is often those least prepared who get the worst deals, unfortunately sitting on your hands hoping exchange rates will magically rise can cause real upset.

In or Out?

The actual outcome is of course important but in the coming weeks and months as we approach the date the market is pricing in the worst case scenario of Brexit. According to some reports GBPEUR could be trading as low as 1.15, GBPUSD 1.30,GBPAUD 1.60 and GPBNZD 1.80. This is the worst end but looking back at how good exchange rates were last year would anyone have predicted the levels currently on offer?

Exchange rates move every second and understanding the forecast can help you to get a better deal. Making plans in advance is always a good idea so for some top tips on how to fix your exchange rate for up to one year and access to the very best commercial exchange rates please get in touch with me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk