Pound Sterling Forecast

Pound Sterling Forecast - Expert opinions on foreign exchange

UK General Election crucial to Sterling value (Daniel Johnson)

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A particularly difficult period to trade Sterling

It appeared to be a shrewd move by Theresa May to call a snap election while the opposition was so weak. A conservative victory is deemed to be the safer option for the UK economy, which is why we saw an advance in Sterling  value against the majority of major currencies following the announcement.

Since then however, May has shot her self in the foot by attacking her core voters. The elderly will now have to pay for their own home care or care home if they have in excess of £100k in assets. This has caused many to change their vote. On the other hand Corbyn has gained popularity, particularly amongst the younger voters with sweeping changes to the education system which would greatly reduce student fees. The conservative lead has now been slashed and it will be difficult to for the conservatives to gain a majority victory.

Historically, the currency in question weaken 24hrs-48hrs before the vote due to political uncertainty.

If the conservatives win I would expect the pound to rally. A hung parliament is a possibility with Labor gaining ground. If we do see a hung parliament I would expect the pound to lose further value.If a coalition is required it may be difficult for the Tories to find allies due to what happened to the Liberal Democrats during the last coalition. If Labour were to form a coalition there is the possibility it could be with more than one party. All the parties have differing manifestos and getting anything through parliament could be very problematic. We have Brexit to deal with, we need a strong, decisive government to negotiate some of the most challenging deals in the last fifty years. A coalition, unable to work together could be catastrophic for Brexit negotiations.

If you are trading during this period you need an experienced broker on board in attempt to maximise the return on your trade during such a volatile period. If you would like my assistance then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly. I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the most competitive rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference, so for the sake of taking a couple of minutes to email me you may find you yourself saving hundreds, if not thousands of pounds. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Sterling exchange rates rocky ahead of election (Daniel Wright)

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The Pound has been that little bit more volatile than usual in the past week or so as investors and speculators heads now turn towards the upcoming election on 8th June.

As an election approaches you tend to find a currency will get a little nervy and this is exactly what we are witnessing with the Pound at present.

Sterling is moving every time a new poll is released and the latest set of polls are suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party are gathering momentum and clawing back ground on a daily basis.

The reason this is leading to the Pound losing value is mainly due to the fact that this could make brexit talks that little more complicated to carry out for the Government, especially if we end this election with a hung Parliament.

Theresa May initially called the election with the view that she had a great chance of taking a large majority, this would have made her life that little bit easier when trying to push through brexit plans.

All this is currently causing is a great deal of uncertainty and for those that are regular readers you will be fully aware that uncertainty is generally a very bad thing to have for a currency, and with brexit, a pending election and a slightly stuttering economy the U.K is rife with uncertainty which is starting to weigh down on the Pound.

My personal opinion is that we will see Sterling make a fight back in the coming weeks, I have no Political allegiances personally, however I feel that the Conservative party are further ahead than is being suggested and that they will win with a majority. This should then give Sterling exchange rates a good solid boost shortly afterwards, but do beware that over the past year or two we have seen many surprises pop up, so this is certainly not set in stone!

If you have a currency exchange to make involving buying or selling the Pound then what is important is that you have an experienced, proactive and helpful broker on your side. Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only offer up to date market information but all of our writers also work for one of the largest brokers in the U.K.

Even if you are already in contact with  another broker or have a premier account with your bank it would be rare that we cannot get you a better rate, along with helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free, no obligation discussion or quote feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site by email on djw@currencies.co.uk or by calling 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours. We can help people from all over the globe and will be more than happy to contact you personally.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Sterling drops as YouGov poll indicates a Hung Parliament in next week’s General Election! (Joseph Wright)

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At 10pm last night the most recent poll released from YouGov sent Sterling exchange rates downward, as the gap between Labour and the Conservative party has slimmed over the past week.

Sterling had originally gained off the back of Theresa May’s (UK Prime Minister) plans to call an election on the 8th of next month, as financial markets expected a clear majority for her Conservative party and this expectation of political certainty strengthened the Pound. In the wake of her calling an election the Pound hit an 8-month high against the Aussie and Canadian Dollars, almost hit 1.20 against the Euro and was seen comfortably trading above 1.30 against the US Dollar.

Over the past week the Pound has slipped as the lead for the Conservative Party has slimmed, and last night news of a potential hung parliament spooked markets and the trend has continued this morning.

Moving forward I’m expecting to see the Pound continue to come under pressure between now and the 8th of June when the election takes place, and should polls show an even tighter race or even a Labour majority then I think we can expect to see Sterling trading towards the lower end of it’s current trends.

Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date with the latest data out of the UK, or if you wish to discuss the current Sterling exchange rate trends.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates slip as election uncertainty heightens (Joshua Privett)

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Buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange tumbled on Friday before the bank holiday weekend with new polling figures smashing the expectation of a pending Conservative landslide.

The Labour comeback in the public mind is staggering given the twenty plus point lead identified at the beginning of the campaigning period by the same polling company which is now saying it is closer to 4%.

With only 10 days left now to polling day, this truly is cruch time for anyone with a Euro, US Dollar or Australian Dollar buying or selling requirement.

Previously the positive elements for the Pound of a Conservative victory (continuation in policy, stability in Brexit negotiations, an elected PM with a mandate for negotiating on the UK’s behalf) had been priced in, as we can see now financial institutions are uncertain towards the result.

4% was the average the Remain camp were ahead in the polls before the EU Referendum…

So moving forward, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD will continue to be influence by the changing tie of UK polls, but unless the Conservatives re-establish a sizeable lead, it’s likely the Pound will continue to deteriorate with the lack of certainty towards the election’s outcome.

So far with the bank holiday we can see the Pound recovering slightly after the more severe losses on Friday, but such movements are a common minor rebalancing.

Anyone with a Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar requirement in the immediate term may be wise to contact me to discuss a strategy on how to approach the vote to secure any targetted peaks and ensure you are better protected from any downside risk.

It could even be that the slight resurgence on exchange rates recorded today will be the best buying levels available before the election itself.

I have never had an issue securing more commercial exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere. Contact me over the bank holiday weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk while markets are closed for a short discussion concerning your personal situation.

 

Sterling Falters as Brexit Negotiations Sour (Matthew Vassallo)

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Sterling has come under pressure once again during Monday’s trading, with reports surfacing that Brexit negotiations have already hit a wall already.

The UK have said they are willing to step away from negotiations, which backs up the Prime Minsters tag line that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

The Pound has seen its value tumble in recent days, with GBP/EUR now trading under 1.16. Although it has held its position around 1.30 against the USD, this is more to do with the negative Trump effect in my opinion, as it is down against most of the other major’s.

Commodity currencies such as the AUD & NZD have thrived, gaining over a cent during the day’s trading and the question now is whether the Pound will find enough confidence over the coming days to recover these losses.

I have continually advocated that clients look for short-term opportunities in the current market and the recent downturn is testament to this.

No one can predict exactly how a currency pair will evolve but with so much uncertainty surrounding the UK, in regards to what deal we will negotiate in our exit from the EU and upcoming general election, now is not the time to be gambling on a consistent upward trend for Sterling.

The reasons attributed to today’s fall are twofold. The weekends polls showed that Labour have gained against the Conservatives and with a Torrie landslide likely priced into Sterling’s current value, this has shaken the market somewhat. Regardless of the likely outcome, any deviation from the expected market result will generally have a negative effect. This means those clients holding the Pound could be susceptible to further losses, should the expected result start to waver and if lessons are to be headed form last year’s key votes, the expected result should never be taken for granted.

This negative feeling was compounded today as reports regarding a Brexit bill that could end up costing the UK up to $112 billion. Whilst this is likely to be an inflated figure, it is clear that the EU expect us to pay a huge compensation bill during our Brexit separation.

This immediately forced UK negotiators onto the back foot and report this afternoon indicated the UK were willing to step away from any deal.

Whilst this outcome is highly unlikely to the fact it would be of detriment to both us and the EU, it is clear that negotiations are going to be long and arduous. If we are falling at the first hurdle, where do we expect to be two years down the line when things get really tough?

These issues lead me to the conclusion that Sterling’s value is likely to remain unstable for months if not years to come and any further spikes should be snapped up by investors and clients alike. There is no telling how much further the Pound could fall and whilst I thought we had found some sort of foothold in the market, today’s developments are a stark reminder how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates whittling away ahead of the weekend (Joshua Privett)

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The gains made by the Pound yesterday from a remarkable turnaround in the retail sector last month have already dwindled, with buying Euro and Dollar rates of exchange falling away by half a cent from yesterday’s highs.

With almost no economic performance statistics to hit the wire today, and with little political news of note (at least from the UK side of these pairings, we all know the intense spotlight that Trump is currently under), this market movement becomes a question of psychology.

As I have written numerous times on this website, the beginning and end to the week can bring some abnormal trading patterns into the marketplace, namely due to the effect global time differences and staggered entry into the weekend brings to a trading arena filled with an immeasurable number of participants.

One thing to remember about traders is that the value of their portfolio changes by the second, and buying and selling Euro and Dollar exchange rates in particular shift. The profit they have accrued during the week must be consolidated, either in a safe currency, or by buying alternative assets outside of currency.

Some currencies are viewed to be more stable than others. Despite a strong, well, very strong showing for the Pound on Thursday with retail sales growth doubling expectations, the UK election is still around the corner whereby Brexit negotiations will then enter full swing. As such this year the Pound has suffered regularly during this period.

Investors sometimes race to be the first to sell as they are not at their desk to protect their positions. For example when UK markets close around 6 pm North American markets will continue to run for another few hours. This sell off of Sterling is the harmful factor, with its value crumbling with reduced demand.

As such anyone with a very short-term requirement to buy Euros, US Dollars, or Australian Dollars with Sterling may be wise to contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Joshua to discuss a live price for your transfer and avoid being ‘last to the party’.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a short conversation could save you a healthy sum on your next transfer.

Anyone with a slightly longer term transfer can also contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in the run up to the election aimed at maximising your currency return.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates suffer heading into the weekend (Joshua Privett)

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Speculative trading has once more rained on the parade of Euro and Dollar buyers who had enjoyed a steady stream of improvements since the announcement of the General Election in April.

Heading into the weekend trading patterns become abnormal. Regular readers will have to forgive me but I will address this quickly.

Speculators at high street financial institutions are the actors who move the exchange rates by buying and selling hefty volumes of currency for profit. However, these traders still have to sleep and go home.

On Friday at 6pm, UK traders leave for the weekend. However,  North American markets are still open and active due to the time difference. As such, to protect their positions when they are away from their desks and to ensure UK traders don’t come back to their desks on Monday morning to dramatic losses, they try to hold onto the most stable currencies they can.

Due to the negative press the Pound received on Thursday with the modest growth outlooks for the UK economy, and lack of appetite for interest rate hikes, the Pound’s slide made it an unattractive currency to hold. Slowing demand explains why buying Euro rates fell at the end of UK trading below 1.18.

So what next?

The positive news for Euro and Dollar buyers is that when trading resumes next week the Pound takes some form of bounce back. The mountain of cheap Sterling is too much to resist for the buy back trend to not begin first thing.

Current expectations, however, is for a general deflation in Sterling’s overall value next week. There is little economic news to be released, and the UK election campaigning will not be ramped until high gear until the following week.

As such this current negative narrative established from the Bank of England last Thursday is expected to continue to weight on the Pound’s value in the short term.

Anyone with a Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar requirement in the immediate term may be wise to seize any resurgence occuring throughout Monday. I am in a position to assist in the timing of your purchase.

Similarly, anyone who has the time to wait for UK election polling to begin to influence Sterling’s value as we get within throwing distance of polling day, should contact me to discuss a strategy on how to approach the vote to secure any targetted peaks and ensure you are better protected from any downside risk.

I have never had an issue securing more commercial exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere due to the multiple counterparties I buy through. Contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk while markets are closed for a short discussion concerning your personal situation.

 

Will the Bank of England help keep the Pound rising this week?

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The pound has defied most expectations and is much higher against all the majors (and most of the minors) as it shrugs off the Brexit blues. Somewhere between Theresa May confirming we wants a hard Brexit and calling a snap General Election, sterling has rocketed. Who would have thought? The improved certainty over the pound can of course only carry it so far so the big question is what lies ahead next for sterling exchange rates and how can you maximise your currency exchange in this period? News this week could easily change the picture, if you have a transfer buying or selling the pound then this news

Between the highs and the lows in 2017 GBPEUR has improved 7 cents, GBPUSD 9 cents, GBPAUD 16 cents and GBPNZD 19 cents! These are some absolutely amazing statitsics and food for thought for clients buying these currencies concerned. There are equally impressive improvements across the board. In the main this is down to improved economic data and a confidence in the end result for the UK. By calling the election and moving the next General Election until 2022 it means Theresa May has much more time to negotiate and will not be forced into accepting a poor deal to appease voters ahead of what would have been the 2020 General Election. Such good feeling is based on sentiment and with many years to go before we get to that point there is of course plenty of potential for surprises and shocks which could upset the pound!

This week is vital as we have the ‘Super Thursday’ releases of the Bank of England Interest Rate decision and the Quarterly Inflation Report. The pound could easily struggle here if we see the UK’s growth forecast lowered but overall I expect an upbeat Bank of England and sterling to rise. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound making some plans in advance is sensible to try and capitalise on the volatility. Sterling is performing very well but there are plenty of risks ahead including the UK’ s General Election and of course the prospect of Brexit negotiations turning sour.

We offer a personal proactive service to assist with the timing and planning of any currency exchanges that you will need for the future. If you have a transfer to consider and would like to discuss the current market and best rates please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Events that could affect the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

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GBP/EUR – Pound to Euro exchange rate forecast

French Election impact on GBP/EUR

Macron is now clear favourite following the first round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, is a huge threat to the Euro with plans to ditch the single currency altogether. She has also stated her intention to hold a referendum in a bid to leave the EU. If she was to gain power expect the Euro to plummet in value.

The market moves on rumour as well as fact and I am of the opinion that a Macron victory is already factored into current GBP/EUR buoyancy levels, I think that if Macron does gain power there would be a slight improvement in Euro value, but nothing significant.

UK Election effect on the Pound

I think the UK election will be a very similar scenario to the French election. Theresa May has pulled a very shrewd move by calling an election while competition is so weak, a move Sun Tzu would be proud of. Usually, a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken, but on this occasion Sterling strengthened upon the announcement due to the conservatives being so far in front in the polls. This is seen as a positive for the UK economy which caused an increase in investor confidence. I think if Theresa May gains power I would expect a small movement in Sterling favour, but nothing significant.

Is 1.20 a resistance point?

We have seen GBP/EUR get very close to 1.20 in the last six months only for the market to readjust, last week it hit 1.1994. If you have a Euro requirement short to medium term it is important to keep this in mind rather than having too optimistic a target.

GBP/AUD – Pound to Australian Dollar rate forecast

GBP/AUD 7 month high

It is looking tempting for Australian Dollar buyers as present. We are witnessing a seven month high. I think there is potential for further gains for Sterling however due to the housing bubble down under and Australia’s heavy reliance on the Chinese. Data from china has been poor of late and has contributed to a weakening Aussie. Your time scale will be crucial in timing your trade.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to get in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile times. If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally.

If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and timescale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Feel free to take a look at our UK election guide here.

Sterling remains fairly flat as we start to see the first sets of economic data from April (Daniel Wright)

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The Pound has remained reasonably stable over the course of this week so far, hanging in the 1.29s against the USD and in the 1.18s against EUR.

The next few mornings will be key for Sterling’s performance as the week goes on as we will start to see the first releases of economic data for how the U.K economy performed in April.

On top of this we have some key economic data releases from the States with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. A change in interest rates for the U.S cannot be ruled out but at present it is unexpected to happen this evening. The monetary policy statement will be of most interest as it will suggest what the plan is for future interest rate change for the States. This will impact all major currencies as it can alter global attitude to risk and lead to quite a bit of market volatility.

This morning we are due out construction data for the U.K and tomorrow morning we are due to have services data, both are due out at 09:30am. These releases will have a fairly large impact on our overall growth figures so will be of key importance, expectations are for both to have dropped down a little but for them to still remain reasonably positive.

All in all I expect a slightly quieter week for the Pound than recent weeks, but with the French election and potential surprises popping up at any money is is always import to keep an eye on the exchange rates during this strange period around the globe.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.