Pound Sterling Forecast

Sterling exchange rates fell yesterday to a 3 week low against the greenback falling back into the 1.59 territory. This is a something that I personally feel could continue, particularly with the continuing unrest in Europe. With the US dollar still very much the global currency of choice (mainly as so many commodities are priced in dollars) during times of unrest the dollar will normally outperform most majors. I for one feel this trend is close to happening as investors digest the problems facing Spain (their bond prices reached a record high for 2012 on Monday at 6.218%). This is creeping ever closer to the 7% levels at which Greece, Portugal and Ireland had to seek bailouts and with Spain potentially a much larger problem, I really feel this will weigh on the Euro (I would expect levels to remain above 1.25 heading towards 1.26 and beyond in the short term).

For this reason I too think the US dollar will begin to find support as investor’s look to move their money to the relative safety of the dollar and we could easily see a move back towards 1.58 in the coming days. For the best exchange rates on your transfer and to discuss the various contracts we can offer in an attempt to maximise your currency exchange then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Greece heads back to the polls as Hollande officially takes over from Sarkozy

Greece is set to go to the polls again after days of coalition talks failed to produce an agreement on a new government, on the day the new French president Francois Hollande was officially sworn into office. Mr Hollande said he was aware of the challenges ahead, including the debt crisis, and vowed to “open a new path in Europe”.

Mr Hollande called for  “a compromise” over the German-led focus on austerity as the way out of the Eurozone, however in on goings in Greece still appear to be dominating the Eurozone and the Euro.

At the elections on 6th May, the results showed a majority of Greek voters backing parties opposed to austerity plans demanded by the EU and IMF in return for two bailouts. Polls suggest the leftist Syriza bloc, which came second in the 6th
May vote and rejects all further cutbacks, could become the largest party after a new election. Syriza wants to renegotiate the bailout package but also wants to keep Greece in the euro.

However European leaders say they will cut funding for Greece if it rejects the bailout agreed in March. This would effectively mean bankruptcy for Greece and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble again ruled out amending the agreement. The Greek president Karolos Papoulias will meet all political leaders at 13:00 local time (10:00 GMT) on Wednesday to put in place an interim government until the new vote, which is expected to take
place on 10th or 17th June.

I feel this will continue to heap pressure on the Euro and any Euro sellers, certainly if funds are not liquid, may wish to consider a forward contract to guarantee their rate in advance. For Euro buyers this is potentially good news, however for anyone with an interest in GBP/EUR look out for the unemployment figures and Bank of England Inflation report at 09:30 and 10:30 respectiveley.

What now for the Aussie, Kiwi and Rand?

Recent moves against these three currencies have been dramatic to say the least. Since the year lows in February we have seen the pound gain 9.5% against the Aussie, 9.7% against the Kiwi and 10.8% against the Rand. On a transfer of £200k between the high and low during this time this makes a respective difference of AUD 29,400, NZD 41,400 and ZAR 288,000. Is it time to take advantage?

This recent trend must be somewhat of a relief to the many clients and individuals emigrating to that part of world. I personally feel with the volatility in Greece this trend could continue in theshort term. But to use the analogy of an elastic band, I do feel these currencies could snap back at any point. However until a degree of stability is restored in Greece (Christine Legarde head of the IMF was quick to rule out a breakup of the Euro) this run may continue, just make sure you are in a position to take advantage.

To dicuss the this report and my views or to run through yoru individual exchange requirement then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478

The Pound has started the week off fairly strongly once again against most major currencies as European woes continue and global risk seems to be getting lower by the hour… I know my shares are certainly tumbling off the back of this news too which is quite depressing!

Pretty much daily now we are seeing new problems either economically or politically throughout the Eurozone and it looks like this trend could easily continue.

We have France with a new President seemingly unwilling to get involved with austerity, Greece not being able to agree on anything, Spain bailing out their banks and a whole host of other problems dotted around.

Nothing is set in stone and suprises can pop up at any point on the currency market but with the Pound seemingly being used as a safer haven and all of the above actually happening personally if i had Euros to sell I would be looking at doing something fairly rapidly.

Regarding buying the riskier currencies it does become tempting to at least hedge your bets and book half of your requirement so that you can at least guarantee yourself half of your funds at a rate that would have been fantastic around six weeks ago.

If you were planning on using your bank for the exchange then i can assist you, likewise if you currently use a broker I am only one email away for you to compare to make sure you really are getting the best rate of exchange for your transfer.

Feel free to get in touch with me directly djw@currencies.co.uk or join or mailing list by filling in the form at the top right hand corner of this page, only this morning I helped a client who has ended up with over £12,000 more of Australian Dollars since he has been following this site both in terms of holding off from booking out a rate when we were a lows a few weeks back and getting a much better rate of exchange than his bank now he has decided to book out his currency.

Sterling exchange rates have fallen slightly this morning but are still set to post strong gains across the board this week, continuing a run that has now seen the pound set some levels not seen for a good while. Notably reaching a high not seen since November 2008 against the Euro, remaining close to a seven month high against the greenback (USD) and trading at year highs against the AUD and NZD. However it is not just the so called major currencies that the pound has posted strong gains and I thought the below table would make interesting reading for regular followers of this website.

Working for one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers I come across a number of different clients with varying requirements predominantly dominated by the majors. Remember, at Currencies.co.uk we are happy to assist you with the exchange and transfer of money for a huge variety of reasons such as property, emigration, investments, cars, weddings, hotel bills, imports and exports to name but a few. So, if you, a friend, relative, colleague or your business have currency exposure that you have not already discussed with a broker then email me directly to mgv@currencies.co.uk  – alternatively call 01494 787478 and ask for Mike quoting PSF.

To finish off lets take a look at the data today to keep a close eye on:

This morning at 09:30 we have UK PPI (Producer Price Index) data – figures expected to fall sharply from 1.0% to -1% – this could hamper to the pounds recent run this morning.

At 13:30 we have US PPI data – expected to post a small fall from 0.3% to 0.2% – this could cause some small dollar weakness in the afternoon session but I would expect this to be minimal.

Finally also at 13:30 we have Canadian unemployment figures, expected to increase from 7.2% to 7.3% – watch out for the loonie (CAD) to weaken a touch this afternoon, potential creating some good buy opportunities.

To discuss the best way to exchange your foreign currency and to discuss my personal views email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

It has been a very mixed day for sterling exchange rates against a host of major currencies. While sterling has been strengthening to fresh highs against the riskier currencies (THREE AND A HALF YEAR HIGH AGAINST THE EURO, 2.0567 AGAINST THE KIWI DOLLAR, 1.6049 AGAINST THE AUSSIE DOLLAR, 12.9315 AGAINST THE RAND) it has weakened against some of the safer haven currencies(1.6066 AGAINST THE US DOLLAR, 1.4895 AGAINST THE SWISS FRANC)

Now for the pound, economic data seems to be making very little difference to how the exchange rate performs. Late last night retail sales data showed a decline over the course of the year. This had little effect on the excellent gains the pound has recently made. Most clients that have an imminent exchange are though capitalising on the improvement for sterling especially as we have another big announcement by the Bank of England tomorrow. We are not expecting much out of the interest rate decision but we must always be wary of the dreaded QE scenario. If more than 50% of the members do vote in favour of QE then sterling could weaken slightly. You may not want to take this risk with the excellent rates compared to a month ago and you are more than welcome to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk before the decision so we can help you make a saving over your high street bank or any other broker that you may have used in the past. Just ask for Ben and I will make sure that I answer your enquiry as quickly as possible.

Looking forward there is always the chance that sterling could continue its trend of rising against the Euro and the southern hemisphere currencies but I feel it will be fairly range bound against the USD and CAD. If you need to SELL any major currency to buy sterling I would be very cautious and fairly worried. The way the pound has performed if the trend continues your losses really could add up. If you are sitting on Euros for instance hoping that the market will reverse and drop back below 1.20 I think it is extremely unlikely and you may be prudent to move sooner rather than later as the losses may continue.

If you would like to speak with me regarding any currency pair we can look at the options that are available to you to help you maximise your exchange. The authors on this site work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK. We have been trading for over 12 years and have assisted thousands of clients make significant savings. If you have never used a broker and would like more information on the personal service that we provide please do feel free to email me. If you have used a broker in the past then challenge us to help beat their rate so you make an even bigger saving over the high street banks. You can contact me (Ben Amrany) at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can then look at the currency pair in question to help you decide when is a good time to convert your funds.

Ben Amrany

If you need to make a transfer into a foreign currency then now may be the ideal time to seriously consider your options. The Pound is the highest it has been against a basket of major currencies for over 35 months. If you have a larger sum to do it may be prudent to hedge your bets and look at securing half of your currency whilst rates are at such great levels.

Sterling Euro

We now have not only Economic problems but also political problems throughout Europe which will no doubt cause big issues in the coming weeks and months. Of course part of the reason that we will have seen rates move up so much of late is the markets reacting in advance so I would be surprised to see the markets completely rocket in the right direction, there may be a little further to go but it would be prudent to at least partly take advantage of this 3 and a half year high.

Sterling Dollar

Fairly range bound of late and I think this pairing has been in the background with Europe and the ‘riskier currencies playing a much bigger part in the play. Most analysts are predicting the Dollar to strengthen back as it is seen as a safer haven in times of low global confidence and I’m sure we will see plenty of that in the near term.

Sterling Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand

Many that have moved overseas in the past year or so will be watching these currency pairs with a smile on their face, and those selling to bring back into Sterling may wish to seriously consider their options in case this trend continues.

Personally it is a coin toss – Further rate cuts in Australia may lead to      further weakness for the AUD however some of this move may be in anticipation of that. European problems will weigh these currencies down and I’m fairly sure there are more of those to come. The one thing to remember though is not to get greedy. Those who contacted me initially saying they would love to get 1.60 should look at putting in a limit order at
that level.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make be it large or small, private or corporate then feel free to get in touch with me directly and I will be happy to help you not only get a better rate than you are currently receiving from your bank but a much better level of service too. I can be reached on djw@currencies.co.uk

Both France and Greece are the talking point this morning following election results that may now weigh heavilly on the Euro in the coming weeks and months.

France’s new socialist Presidente Francois Hollande and his anti austerity agenda may now lead to huge disruption for progress in this European debt crisis as he appears to be against Angela Merkel and previous President Sarkozy’s measures and this may cause political troubles throughout Europe. political instability is one of the main factors that can effect a currency and it would not surprise me to see the Euro continue to struggle (not crash but struggle).

This will cause jitters for the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand and may lead to further weakness for these particular currencies this week. once again actual economic data appears to be in the background and political problems are not only front page news on currency websites but front page news accross the world.

I can see this really causing big problems (not quite world war three) but not a million miles away. If you are selling a property in Europe and are worried about rate movements then perhaps you are right, I still somehow have clients holding off and waiting for rates to improve and if you look at the facts and figures then it would not surprise me to see rates stay like this or get worse for a period of time.

If you are concerned about the current market conditions and want to have an experienced and friendly currency broker on your side throughout this crisis then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to assist you in timing (however I cannot directly advise) and getting  you the best rate when you do book out your currency. I reguarly better clients rates by enough to make it worthwhile changing over and will be happy to add you to my ever growing list of clients.

The Pound has once again had an encouraging week against most of the majors as confidence in Sterling is still fairly high – Even with a technical recession hanging over our heads investors seem to be able to see past that and in my opinion the U.K is being seen as “The best of a bad bunch” hence the minor confidence and strength in the Pound.

French elections will weigh heavilly on the Euro over the weekend, and the pending results may lead to an extremely volatile start to the week for those buying or selling Euros. Many of my clients I speak to in France believe that there looks to now be only one winner, and his relationship with Angela Merkel is about as solid as North and South Korea, so if he is elected expect fireworks for the European Debt crisis in the coming months.

Today is fairly important for those with a Dollar interest and indeed interest in the ‘riskier’ currencies such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand. Non Farm Payroll data is essentially the number of people in Non agricultural employment over in the States and is a key indication as to how their economy is performing.

The reason it is Non agricultural is because these jobs may be seasonal and do not give a fair representation of the employment figures. The reason it can cause quite a lot of volatility is because predictions are made in advance and these can be wildly out… As many of our regular readers will know the markets move onb rumour as well as fact, and should the figure come out quite a way from predictions the market does correct itself rather swiftly.

The reason this effects the AUD, NZD and ZAR and pretty much most majors is because as i’m sure you can imagine it will effect attitude to risk and will lead to rapid movements of large amounts of money globally in what generally presents a volatile end to the week.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out either now or in the coming months and you would like me to personally assist you and get you a better rate than your bank or current broker then email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk – I now receive 30,000 unique visitors per month to this site and if you are finding it useful and of interest then why not get in touch and see how else I can help?

I look forward to speaking with you soon, and for those in the U.K enjoy your Bank Holiday weekend

Sterling has continued its recent resurgence hitting a 33 month high against a basket of currencies on a trade weighted basis. This has included a notable high against majors such as the Euro (a 22 month high), US dollar (7 month high), AUD and NZD (year highs). To me these must represent some fantastic buy opportunities and may well come as a welcome relief to many. For those with an upcoming requirement involving Sterling watch out for UK PMI for the services sector at 09:30. The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector and captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. Figures above 50 show expansion and below contraction, we are expected a release of 54.2 showing expansion but these would be down on April’s figure of 55.3 so may cause the pound to weaken a touch. We have also seen Nationwide house price data released overnight with figures falling from 0.5 to -0.2% – possibly why the pound is down against most currencies this morning.

ECB Interest Rate Decision

For anyone with an interest in the Euro keep an eye on the European Central Bank and their respective interest rate decision at 12.45BST. Expectations are for a rate hold at 1% but the press conference held by President Mario Draghi at 13:30BST should be viewed with caution. I am sure the situation in Spain will be high on the agenda and clues may be given as to future monetary policy and as to what the ECB projects for the coming weeks and months. Should Draghi take a positive (bullish) tone watch for Euro strength in the afternoon session. Subsequently any negative sentiment and expect the reverse. The period before and after the Presidents speech is a notoriously volatile time, anyone risk averse may well look to avoid this contact Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk to discuss your transfer and the potential outcomes.

As a specialist currency broker myself and a number of my colleagues regularly post on this blog to assist and help individuals and business’s a like make an informed decision as to when is best to exchange. Through years of market experience we get a feeling as to what data sets affect the market and can help pass this market knowledge on to prospective clients. Ultimately the decision is always yours but should you have an upcoming requirement and would like to run through the data that might affect your exchange in the coming weeks then please do not hesitate to contact me. As well as taking time to write and post on this blog I also work for one of the UK’s largest independent brokers www.currencies.co.uk offering a number of contracts tailored to each individuals requirements. I would be more than happy to discuss these contracts with you and can be reached on 01494 787 478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Following better than expected mortgage approval data and not too terrible PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data we have seen Sterling have yet another gravity defying start in early morning trading.

The Pound is up against pretty much all majors, not by a huge amount but it is still up. Personally I feel that the sudden confidence in Sterling is due to it now being the best of a bad bunch…. Surely any investor with their head screwed on would be wary of the Euro at present and with the potential of QE3 hanging over the head of the Dollar the Pound surely steps forward… Even if we are technically in a recession at present.

The question really is how long will this last??? We have seen Sterling have a few decent spurts like this over the past few years, yet only ended up disappointed with it fizzling out thanks to poor negative movements from the Bank of England who seemingly get twitchy when the Pound gets too strong.

The sensible option in this market is to use a Stop Loss order… This is where you set yourself a worst case scenario in the market e.g 1.22 – If rates should start to drop[ away and that level become your trading level even for a second then your currency is automatically purchased for you, however the order (as long as it is not filled) can be moved at any time so if rates are creeping up you can always ‘chase the market’ up and keep increasing your bottom figure.

The good thing with this is that you know what your worst case scenario is for example the minimum your Euro purchase will cost, the bad part is if the market should jump down to the point your currency is bought and then fly back up again then you have secured your currency and the deal is done. For the less riskier client though this is ideal as you do get to see how the market pans out without losing too much if the market should drop away.

If you want more information on this then feel free to contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk

The pound lost slightly today in early morning trading due to PMI Manufacturing data coming out worse than expected. The figures still pointed to a sector in expansion, but were not a strong as predicted. This release makes tomorrow and Thursday’s PMI data key for anyone buying or selling the pound this week.

These PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) surveys are a snapshot of the relevant sector and provide the most up to date information relating to an economy. They are of course not definitive, but for anyone looking to make a transfer this week or month, they could well set the pace. Don’t forget technically the UK is in recession. The next revision is not until 24th May, but with the currenct estimate at -0.3%, will take quite some upgrading to boost the UK’s current outlook.

Tomorrow at 09.30  we have UK PMI Construction. Construction was the sector that apparently dragged the UK down last quarter and it is expected that this sector like Manufacturing this morning will be slowing down. Tomorrow morning we also have German PMI Manufacturing and German Unemployment. As the biggest Eurozone economy this is well worth being aware of if considering a Euro trade. We are still at close to a 20 month high buying euros with sterling but these data sets could easily change the course for the day.

On Thursday at 09.30 we have UK PMI Services. As with today and tomorrow’s PMI data the Service sector too is expected to be slowing down. As the key concern for the UK is growth, further negative news could really hamper the pound and even cause it to lose value. Thursday afternoon sees the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision which could well stoke some movements on GBPEUR and EURUSD. And talking of the dollar, we have perhaps the biggest release of the week on Friday with US Non – Farm Payroll. This can move the market on all currencies as investors move money according to what they think may happen. If you are making or considering any currency exchanges it really is worth being aware now of what may happen so you do not miss out.  Exchange rates move every few seconds and we can help not only limit your exposure using our wide range of contracts options and making sure you are up to date with the latest movements, but also make sure your trades go through at the very best commercial rates, above that offered by other brokers and banks. Feel free to make a comparison with anyone of the team directly or by using the contact form on the right hand side. We always go that extra mile for clients who contact us via this site!

And I must say Congratulations go to Daniel for some excellent predicitions yesterday! This just goes to show how by listening to us clients can save money. Of course there are no guarantees but because of our inner knowledge of what actually drives exchange rates we can make what can turn out to be pretty accurate predictions.

As well as the above data there are many more releases concerning the USD,  AUD,  NZD and CAD! If you would like any further information I will be happy to personally assist. You can call me direct on 01494 787 478  or if you prefer email via jmw@currencies.co.uk

We look forward to hearing from you