Category Archives: Predictions

Sterling exchange rates drop to start the day only to recover – Theresa May to speak tomorrow at 11:45am (Daniel Wright)

The Pound had a bad start to the week, dropping against most major currencies in the Asian market session on Sunday night.

By the time we entered the trading floor rates had started to recover a little and U.K Manufacturing data released this morning helped to push the Pound back closer to where we saw it end last week.

Sterling really is having a rough ride of things lately and we are seeing multi month and even year lows against some major currencies. The GBP/AUD rate almost hit its lowest point since 2013 on Sunday night, giving those looking to bring Australian Dollar sellers into Pounds a great opportunity to repatriate their funds.

Now that the dust has settled on an extremely busy trading day we look ahead at what to expect tomorrow.. And it certainly does not look like a quiet one.

We have a flurry of inflation data out over the course of the morning for the U.k, with inflation expected to have risen ever so slightly. This is not a great surprise with the low value of the Pound and the Bank of England to have slight concerns over this so they will be looking to avoid the rise in inflation being too sharp.

The main event of the day will be Prime Minister Theresa may speaking about all things Brexit at 11:45am. Personally I feel we will just here more of the same comments that we have had come out from recent interviews but anyone with a currency requirement involving either buying or selling the Pound should still be poised and ready for action.

Investors and speculators alike will be moving off of every word and looking for any hints on what we are to expect so the market may be extremely volatile during this period and for the rest of the day.

If you are in the position where you are buying or selling a property overseas, your business moves funds between currencies or you have a foreign currency requirement for any other reason then it is key to keep a close eye on rates in the coming days, weeks and months ahead.

We keep our clients fully up to date with market movements and also assist with large foreign exchange transfers too. I created this site over 7 years ago to help people with market information but we also welcome new clients to assist with their money transfers on top of this.

Should you be in the position where you may need our service, you are getting rates from another broker that you don’t feel are the best or you merely want to have an efficient, pro active and friendly broker on your side then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your needs and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Alternatively feel free to call our trading floor on 01494 787 478 and ask for me (Daniel Wright) anytime from 08:30am until 18:00pm GMT.

Will the pound continue to fall? (Dayle Littlejohn)

If you are buying or selling a substantial amount of sterling for the first time, this article outlines the factors impacting the sterling’s value and how to save money when you come to converting.

Throughout 2016, it is likely that anytime you switched on the news, Brexit talks were stealing the headlines. Since the turn of the year, the pound has declined for two main reasons;

The first is that at any point, the Supreme Court will give their verdict to whether UK Prime Minister Theresa May has the power to start the process of leaving the EU, or if she needs to obtain Parliamentary approval. The outstanding decision is sending jitters through investors, which means they are selling their sterling and purchasing safer currencies.

Secondly, during UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s press conference on Sunday 8th January, she stated that she aims to tackle immigration and leaving the single market looks inevitable. The consensus on the market is that anytime a key figure within the UK exclaims that the UK will leave the single market, sterling exchange rates fall.
The week ahead

The Supreme Court decision is looming but they have not released an exact date. Personally, I believe the Supreme Court will rule Mrs May needs Parliamentary approval and therefore this decision will not have a negative impact on the pound. However, if I am wrong and this is the first shock of 2017 the pound could fall like a stone.

On Tuesday 17th January 2017, Mrs May will address the UK public, and no surprise the agenda is Brexit. If she continues with a similar stance to last Sunday, sterling is set to lose further value, which means buying a foreign currency becomes more expensive.

It’s key to note that the Commons Brexit Committee made up of MPs, announced at the end of the trading week that Mrs May must confirm whether she wants in or out of the single market and the Customs Union before Brexit talks begin. Could she give direction this Tuesday?

On a weekly basis, the UK release economic data that shows how well the economy is performing. This week the UK are set to release:

Inflation – Tuesday 17th January 2017

Unemployment and Average earnings – Wednesday 18th January 2017

Retail Sales – Friday 20th January 2017

Since the start of the year economic data has been impressive for the UK. Out of the 13 data releases that tend to have a major impact on sterling 11 releases have exceeded expectations and only trade numbers have shown a decline. This shows to me that economic data is living in the shadows of politics. The economic data releases could cause small spikes for sterling, however, the direction of exchange rates will be dictated by Brexit news.

To summarise if you are buying or foreign currency short-term, there could be spikes in the market to take advantage of, however, the safe option is to convert sooner rather than later. If you are buying the pound I would recommend outlining your requirements to me so I can keep you up to date and then sit back and wait to see how far the pound falls.

When buying or selling the pound you also need to analyse the other currency you are converting before making your final decision. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPEUR, GBPUSD, GBPAUD, etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will provide you with further information drl@currencies.co.uk.

How to save money

The company I work for helps the client understand the factors that are influencing the currency pair they are trading, whilst having the ability to offer exchange rates that the client wouldn’t be able to receive with their own bank. We have been in business for over 17 years and on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. Feel free to drop me an email or alternatively you can call the trading floor Monday morning and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn to discuss your options 0044 1494 787 478.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend and I look forward to speaking with you Monday morning.

** People are deal with on a daily basis are sole traders, financial directors, property buyers and sellers **

Sterling Euro rates hit lowest point since November (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have continued to tumble during the week with GBPEUR rates now at their lowest point to buy Euros since early November 2016.

The Pound has also fallen against all major currencies with big losses seen vs the US Dollar and the Australian Dollar.

The Pound has struggled as it appears, at least for the moment, that we could be facing a hard Brexit which means we may not necessarily remain in the single market which has sent shockwaves through the currency markets and therefore Sterling has fallen.

Personal debt per household has continued to rise and this means that with inflation also set to rise it may be difficult for the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the future as this could cause further problems and this has resulted in weakness for the Pound.

Indeed, Bank of England member Andy Haldane went on to say ‘interest rates are still very low, and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future.’

On the continent the Eurozone’s leading economy Germany has announced strong economic data in the form of GDP which came out at 1.9% for 2016 which was better than expected.

As the Eurozone’s strongest economy this has led to the Euro strengthening against the Pound creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Next week Prime Minister Theresa May is set to address the nation on Tuesday and hopefully we will have the announcement of the recent Supreme Court judgement coming soon.

However, MPs have been explicit in that they want Theresa May to clarify her position with regards the single market before any Brexit talks can begin.

With the continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit I feel there are further problems ahead for the Pound vs the Euro as well as other major currencies so if you need to send money abroad in the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also able with my experience to help you with the timing of your transfer.

To find out more or if you’d like a free quote when buying or selling currency then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling exchange rates still looking shaky as we await news on Supreme Court – On the plus side a trade deal with New Zealand may be agreed (Daniel Wright)

As most of our regular readers will be more than aware, Sterling exchange rates have had a pretty torrid time this week, with the pound dropping to its lowest point on a trade weighted basis since October.

We have seen Sterling almost drop below 1.20 on against USD, 1.13 against EUR, 1.60 against AUD, 1.70 against NZD, 1.20 against CHF and it is sat below 1.60 against the Canadian Dollar as I write this!

The uncertainty caused by comments from Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend and during the week are still causing investors and speculators to remain shaky over the Pound, and economic data has not done anything to provide a backup like it has been over the past few weeks.

The key talking point now is just what will the Supreme Court decide to do? As previously mentioned this decision matters a huge amount not only because it will show us what the next steps will have to be for article 50 being invoked, but it will also more than likely lead to lots of MP’s having their say afterwards and every single comment has the potential to move the market considerably.

On Tuesday we also have Prime Minister Theresa May speaking about Brexit, which makes me wonder whether or not she is expecting to have a result from the Supreme Court before then, if we do then Sterling is set for an extremely busy week.

One positive for the Pound today was news that we appear to have all but agreed a trade deal with New Zealand, and it appears that this is ready to go as soon as possible after Brexit. A number of major economies are stepping forward and happy to do business with the U.K which is no great surprise to me.

More and more good news like this that comes out during this long winded process should only lead to the Pound getting stronger, we just need to get over the potential banana skin of the Supreme Court and Article 50 being invoked first.

If you are in the position where you need to carry out a large currency exchange either imminently or in the coming weeks and months then it is extremely important to have an experienced and proactive broker on your side. Most brokers out there will only try and convince you to buy or sell your currency as soon as possible but we are here to help you try and make the right decision for you.

Should you feel that I could be of assistance then I deal with both business clients and private individuals that need large currency transfers and would be more than happy to help you too. I created this site over 7 years ago and have helped thousands of clients that have contacted me save money over their bank or current broker.

All you need to do to make a simple enquiry is to email me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of what you need to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

A tough week for sterling (Dayle Littlejohn)

UK Prime Minister told Sky last week that she didnt want to keep bots of the EU which confirmed she plans to remove the UK from the single market. The pound has been in a steep decline since. The PM has blamed the press for the pounds demise however I believe if she continues with her tone exchange rates will fall.

She is set to hold another press conference Tuesday, with the agenda simply Brexit. Many leading economists and CEOs of businesses within the UK have warned the PM that she needs to give clear direction in the upcoming weeks.  HSBC leading officials have gone one step further and warned the PM that her actions could push the bank to move their headquarters to Paris, which means many jobs would be lost for the UK.

As for UK economic data since the turn of the year, figures have been strong however the pound has declined. It just shows that politics/ Brexit is outweighing economic data releases.

If you have a foreign currency to buy this month I would recommend getting in touch to discuss your options as I expect the pound will fall in value once more after the PMs press conference Tuesday.

When buying or selling the pound you also need to understand the factors that will be impacting the other currency. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would reccomend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.

 

Why is the Pound losing value at the moment, and will it continue? (Joseph Wright)

Brexit jitters are continuing to weigh on the Pounds value, with the currency losing a substantial amount of value over the past week across the board of major currency pairs.

Currency markets were already weary of the Pounds future price movements as we await the outcome of the Supreme Courts impending decision on whether or no the UK Government requires parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit.

These fears were exacerbated over the past weekend as a much talked about interview offered the marketplace an insight into the UK PM’s plans for the Brexit. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May alluded to prioritising the control of immigration, as opposed to focusing on retaining the UK’s access to the single market.

Moreover, May commented that the UK cannot keep ‘bits’ of EU membership and this comment has fueled the fire of bearishness towards the Pound at the moment.

It’s for these reasons that we’ve seen the Pound soften over the week, and the sell-off accelerated this afternoon after May announced that she will be giving another major speech on her Brexit plans on Tuesday of next week.

I personally think that the Supreme Court decision will have been announced by then, so there’s a possibility we could see a lot of volatility between GBP exchange rates between now and then.

Until then, I think that anyone with a currency exchange requirement involving the Pound should pay close attention to the Supreme Court decision. The likelihood is that if the Government is successful in their appeal we can expect to see the Pound fall further, as the Government plans on invoking Article 50 at the end of March and there polices generally lean towards a ‘Hard Brexit’.

On the other hand if they’re unsuccessful the general consensus is that the Pound could get a lift. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date with the outcome of the Supreme Court’s decision, as of yet we have no definitive time as to when this announcement will be made.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also speak to me directly on the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception to speak with Joe.

Brexit Uncertainty Causing Sterling to Weaken (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has come under pressure this week following comments made over the weekend by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, regarding how she wished the UK to facilitate our exit from the EU.

She stated the UK would look towards a “hard Brexit”, which ultimately means that we will be cutting nearly all ties with the EU. This has caused investors to panic and the markets have reacted accordingly, with the recent loses against all the major currencies a result of this.

Despite these obvious fears May also mentioned she wanted the best deal for the UK in terms of leaving the EU but stated that we will not be keeping part membership and we were going to break off completely. This means that trade deals and immigration rights will need to be renegotiated and this causes a huge amount of market uncertainty.

Market uncertainty is a currencies killer and this is why the Pound is fighting an uphill battle. Talk of Brexit and how we will facilitate this is likely to drive investor confidence and in turn the Pound’s value for months if not years to come.

These comments were clouded somewhat by UK Chancellor Philip Hammond who admitted no decision had yet been made as to whether the UK would stay in the single market post Brexit. It may be that the Prime Minister is trying to give herself a strong bargaining positon ahead of negotiations with the EU but wither way we just don’t have enough information to hand to make a firm decision either way.

I would not be gambling on the current market and with the UK economy so fragile in the minds of investors and GBP/EUR falling back below 1.15 at yesterday’s low, it may be time to secure your Sterling position and remove the uncertainty surrounding the whole debacle.

With the Supreme Court meeting again today we could get a decision regarding the triggering of Article 50 at any time, so it would be wise for anyone with a Sterling currency requirement to keep in close contact with their personal currency broker, to ensure any opportunities that arise are not missed.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make and you are looking for the best exchange rates available, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

We can provide key market information and analysis ahead of any transfer, whilst keeping you up to date with all the latest market movements. We help our client to time their exchange to maximise the market value available and have awards for our exchange rates and service.

If you would like to contact am directly I can be emailed on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

When is the Supreme Court case in the UK and how will this affect the pound?

The pending UK Supreme Court case in the UK is critical to the short term movements on sterling exchange rates and clients with a requirement to buy or sell the pound should be making plans around this. Expectations for the initial reaction to the decision are reasonably clear but once the decision is made we will then be faced with a whole new set of questions over the next direction for the Brexit vote. Markets have loosely priced in the expectation the previous decision will be upheld but there are no guarantees!

If the previous decision is upheld then the pound should rise. GBPEUR could hit 1.17-1.18, GBPUSD upper end would be 1.25, GBPAUD 1.70 and GBPNZD towards 1.80. The pound could easily fall up to 4% if the court case does not go the way markets have been predicting. There is a very strong chance we could be looking at rates on GBPEUR retesting 1.10-1.12 territory whilst on GBPUSD we could slip below 1.20. GBPAUD may drop below 1.60 and GBPNZD below 1.70.

The biggest problem is knowing when this case will be decided. With the Supreme Court reopening tomorrow from their recess period the news could come as early as tomorrow. I expect it will be between tomorrow and next week which gives clients looking to buy or sell sterling a small window of opportunity to plan in.

In order to maximise such an opportunity the best strategy in such a market is number one to be prepared and number two to understand your options. My order book is currently very high with ‘Limit’ and ‘Stop / Loss’ orders. A ‘Limit’ order allows you trade at a higher level whilst a ‘Stop / Loss’ order allows you to protect your rate should the market fall. In such an uncertain and potentially volatile market I feel the best way forward is to use a combination of the above tools to help limit your exposure and trade on any improvements.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish for some assistance with the timing and planning of any exchanges please feel free to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position and preferably a phone number so I can quickly contact you.

Thank you for reading this post and I look forward to answering any questions on the markets or the services we can provide.

Jonathan Watson

 

Sterling continues to fall following Theresa May’s comments (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has a rough start to the week

Following Theresa May’s comments this weekend, where she hinted toward a hard Brexit sterling has fallen heavily with GBP/EUR sitting in the 1.14s and GBP/USD in the 1.21s.  She stated during a Sky News interview that she would consider giving up free trade for control over immigration.

I think more important however will be the ruling in regards to the supreme court judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50. If parliament do get the vote it is probable there will be a soft brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while negotiations take place. This eventuality should cause the pound to rise.

If parliament do not get the vote a hard brexit becomes the probable outcome and this could result in trade negotiations being troublesome and elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned  due to what he considers to be unrealistic estimations on how long brexit will take. The current target for a full exit from the EU is two years, Sir Ivan thinks it will be nearer ten.

I would expect the the supreme court ruling to come through between the 12th-17th January, keep your eyes on developments on the case as this could have major implications on the value of the pound.

UK data releases that could effect Sterling short term

Tomorrow will see the release of UK manufacturing data where I would expect to see an improvement which could cause some respite for the pound. GDP figures are also released on Wednesday and I would again expect a slight improvement. Please be aware however that any news from the supreme court judgement is likely to outweigh these data releases.

If you have a currency requirement I will happily assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will provide a comparison against your current provider and also formulate a trading strategy to suit your individual needs. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over sixteen years with the highest credit rating and one which is also registered with the FCA. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs.

Pound slides as May comments lead to ‘Hard Brexit’ being more likely (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have taken quite a tumble in early morning trading today, following comments from Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend suggesting there is a higher possibility of us looking for a ‘hard brexit’ and that control of our borders appeared to be a higher focus than remaining in the single market.

Why does a hard brexit weaken the Pound?

A hard brexit leads to Sterling weakness because it could seriously hamper trade for the U.K and a report from the centre for economics and business research discovered that all sectors that create wealth for the economy would be negatively effected. Obviously a lot would depend on any agreements that get put in place but these may take a great deal of time and the worry is that it is highly doubtful that any agreement that is eventually sought does not end favouring one sector over another, which would mean someone will end up missing out.

What this does create is uncertainty for all sectors within U.K trade and uncertainty is extremely bad for an economy, a company and most importantly for a currency so this has led to the Pound dropping off and losing value all morning so far.

Supreme Court decision to change things?

One factor that may turn around the form of the Pound is the eagerly awaited Supreme Court decision on whether to overturn the need for Thesera May to have to put the triggering of Article 50 through Parliament before moving forward.

Should the Supreme Court stick with the original decision then there is a chance members of Parliament will aim for more of a say in how things are handled which may stop a full on ‘hard brexit’ and could also slow down the process a little which would hopefully give the Pound back a little strength.

On the flip side, a decision to overturn the original result may kick the Pound whilst it is down and the Sterling exchange rates may get even weaker again.

They are back together on January 11th and we expect to see a decision in the few days after this, what this does mean is that if you have a currency exchange to carry out you need to be poised and ready to react quickly.

If you are fairly busy day to day and you do not have time to watch the rates (which move by the second) then why not let one of our dedicated, helpful and friendly brokers do this for you. We have a variety of tools available to assist you in maximising your rate of exchange including rate alerts, limit orders and forward contracts.

Should you need to carry out a currency exchange involving any major currency for you business, a property purchase/sale or any other reason then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk personally. Please leave a brief overview of what you need to do and I will personally contact you to discuss the options available and to tailor a game plan. Please note we do not deal in cash or travel money. You can also call our trading floor on 01494 787 478 please quote Pound Sterling Forecast and ask to speak Daniel Wright.

 

 

 

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