Category Archives: Sterling strength

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

Sterling Rallies Following Positive GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rallied again during Wednesday mornings trading, following better than expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures came in above market expectation at 2.1% growth and this helped to boost Sterling’s value further, following a positive run during the first half of the trading week.

GBP/EUR rates jumped following US President Barack Obama’s comments on the weekend, regarding how Britain would be worse off outside of the EU, comments which boosted market confidence and helped to push the Pound up through 1.29 at this week’s high. This move was intensified following this morning GDP figures and a one point it seemed as though GBP/EUR rates may push 1.30, before the EUR found support snapping back towards 1.2850 by the close of European trading.

It was interesting to note that Sterling’s support waned following a report from White House hopeful Ted Cruz who said that the UK should be ‘at the front of the que’ for a trade deal with the US should we choose to leave the EU after June’s referendum. Whilst I will take these comments with a pinch of salt it comes as a stark reminder that despite this week’s reports indicating that we are more likely to stay than leave, no one actually knows what the outcome will be. The markets are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future and I would not be gambling on huge improvements for the Pound beyond the current levels.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Ahead of GDP Numbers Expected to Fall (James Lovick)

The pound has seen an excellent run across all of the major currencies although that rally appears to be running out of steam after another last push higher throughout yesterday. GBP EUR in particular is showing signs that the rally may not push much higher from here.

This morning sees the release of eagerly awaited GDP numbers for the first quarter of 2016. Economic data for the manufacturing and construction sectors have performed badly in recent months and we are expecting this to show in the numbers released this morning. In fact the figures were so bad last month for industrial and manufacturing production that there is a real concern that the economy has seen a sizeable drop in output. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have forecast a reading of just 0.3% this morning. There forecasts of the official figures are usually very accurate so I struggle to see a good outcome for the pound this morning. A figure at 0.3% should carry some risk for the pound and anything lower would be particularly worrying.

As far as the EU referendum is concerned there will inevitably be increased volatility as we approach 23rd June. This is a major political situation for Britain to find itself in. What I find interesting is that the Leave campaign have so far had very little to say on the matter. On the other hand the Remain campaign have now used and published all the major institutions economic forecasts to support their cause including the OECD outlook this morning. They have now also had the benefit of US President Barack Obama and his extremely pro EU comments which were borderline threatening when suggesting we would be at the back of the queue when negotiating any new trade deals. They have also had their leaflet drop to every home in Britain. I don’t feel this lack of action from the Leave campaign so early on in the campaign is coincidental. I would expect to see very strong campaigning from the Leave campaign from here on and if done convincingly should see some major headwinds for sterling going forward.

Buyers of Euros in particular may wish to consider taking advantage of the 5 cent gain in the last two weeks for GBP EUR. Considering rates distinctly looked like they were heading below 1.20  for this pair just a fortnight ago highlights the kind of  downward pressure on sterling but there is clearly a win opportunity at the moment for anyone holding sterling.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement either buying or selling with any other currency and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Keep Getting Stronger (Ben Fletcher)

After Barrack Obama heavily involved himself with the Brexit over the weekend, the Remain campaign has increased its slender lead. Over the last 20 days there has been an increase in the GBP/EUR rate of nearly 7 cent which means anyone with £200,000 to change has gained over €11000.

The big question moving forward and what most my clients have asked is will the rate continue to strengthen? I think in the next few weeks there is certainly a chance the rate will remain around a similar level however it seems unlikely that the rate will rise into the mid 1.30’s. I believe as we move towards the actual vote itself there will be uncertainty and the rate will fall again. It’s also worth considering that the Leave campaign has only in the last few weeks been allocated their funding so there will certainly be an onslaught coming soon.

Data releases this week

GDP is released for the UK tomorrow which is expected to show a small reduction in both the month on month and year on year results. On Thursday there is a huge amount of Data being released in Europe on Thursday which is not expected to be particularly good, if the rates rise to the 1.30 level I suggest if you need to buy Euros that would be the time and not to wait.

As a side note this week the Bank of Japan on Thursday are potentially going to introduce further negative interest rates. The Japanese Yen as of recent has received a lot of investment and should the interest rate cut take place I would not be surprised to see money invested into Sterling. An influx of investment could certainly mean Thursday morning could be a great Euro buying window.

If you would like to find out further information with regards to my forecast please reach out to me at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have with regards to the GBP/EUR rate.

Sterling recent climb – is this the best level to buy EUROS? – STEVE EAKINS

The value of the Pound has risen dramatically over the last 2 days,  it has been the single biggest and most consistent positive movement we have seen this year. The reason for this gain is following the visit by Barack Obama and his positive stance on the Brexit and the impact it could have on trade.  The leave campaign who are wanting us to leave the EU have been suggesting that we would turn away from the EU and towards the US for trade and commerce.  That has somewhat been destroyed by the President of the United States following his visit. He stated that why would they prioritise a trade agreement with a smaller country rather than dealing with the European block. When he left the UK he flew to Germany to work on that said trade agreement.

This stance has somewhat changed the polls of the potential result to the referendum in less than two months with a stay in vote the favourite result by a distant.  This makes the uncertainty of a leave win less likely and therefore Sterling has started to recover.

As we get closer to the Brexit I can certainly see rates dropping down once more but I think it is rather unlikely as to whether we will see the lows of 1.10 that some have forecasted.

In the nearer future watch out for UK GDP figures which are released tomorrow on Wednesday. This will give the market a better idea of how the impact and uncertainty of the Brexit has impacted the economy and commerce.  The market is expecting a fall which could be reflected in Sterling’s value.

Rates currently sit at the best levels to buy the euro that we have seen for nearly 3 months, buying £200,000 worth of euros now gets you over €5,800 compared to a week ago and €11,250 compared to three weeks ago.

To have a discussion about how to take advantage, forecasts and indeed how the market could impact your situation please get in contact. Email myself STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rates continue their surprising climb, offering a great short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound made gains across the board again today, following on from what was a surprising rebound last week which has provided those looking to convert Sterling into another currency, with a great short term opportunity.

As we all know, currency exchange rates don’t move in straight lines and I personally view this recent market movement as a short term opportunity to take advantage of, as opposed to the beginning of long term upward trend for Sterling exchange rates.

I’m of this opinion for a number of reasons. Firstly, I’m not sold on the reasoning behind this recent boost to Sterling’s value. It’s being predominantly put down to the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls suggesting that the ‘Remain’ camp is now in the lead, although I think it takes a bit more than this to shift market’s so substantially and I think speculators, looking to make a quick buck have been bargain hunting in large numbers which has driven up Sterling’s value. Once the profit taking begins I think we can expect sharp falls for the Pound once again, similar to those we saw just a few weeks ago at the beginning of the month.

Also, I think that US President Barack Obama’s recent statements underlining the UK Government’s desire for the UK to stay within the Eurozone has been met well by the marketplace, boosting sentiment for the short term. Once again I’m not expecting this sentiment to last, as it will only take one celebrity or person of significance to lend their support to the ‘Leave’ campaign and leave us with similar market conditions to those just after Boris Johnson opted to support the ‘Leave’ campaign, when Sterling rates of exchange dropped sharply.

There are many arguments in favor of remaining within the Eurozone, and the current polls are suggesting that the UK will. But irrespective of these factors it’s highly likely that we’ll continue to experience headwinds in the lead up to the 23rd of June when we have our vote, therefore investors will need to take advantage of the opportunities that arise in that time and as I’ve previously stated, I think that the current buying opportunities on the likes of GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD will be short term.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 if you would like to discuss anything in further detail, just ask for Joseph. 

 

Will Sterling continue its recent good performance against both the Euro and the US Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has seen solid gains vs the Euro and the US Dollar during the course of last week and the expectations are that we could see further gains this morning.

US president Obama has spoken out in favour of the UK remaining part of the European Union and has suggested that if the UK leaves the EU it could cost as much as £10bn.

The US is the UK’s biggest export destination as a country and is worth approximately £3.5bn and we currently pay very low tariffs when dealing directly with the US.

A vote to leave could mean higher tariffs and trade barriers similar to those experienced by China, Brazil and India.

It appears as though Obama’s visit and comments have come at just the right time for those campaigning to stay in the European Union and this has brought about Sterling strength.

On Wednesday the UK releases GDP for the first quarter of 2016 and this could set the tone for Sterling exchange rates for the rest of the month.

Economic data has been very mixed over the last 3 months and this particular data set will make very interesting reading for anyone looking to make a currency transfer involving Sterling.

The Greek issue to still causing uncertainty and a recent Eurogroup meeting did not manage to resolve things so another emergency meeting is set to be announced in an attempt to stop them from defaulting on their next repayment due to the European Central Bank in July. This could see GBPEUR rates improve.

The US Federal Reserve meet on Wednesday night and this could impact GBPUSD rates as the Fed have recently been tipped to raise interest rates twice this year so any hints of this coming anytime soon could see Dollar strength vs Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates hit a 6 week high and chances of a Brexit? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has extended its gains against both the Euro and the US Dollar this week as momentum gathers behind the Remain vote.

The International Monetary Fund, UK government, Bank of England governor and even President Obama have all spoken out in favour of the UK staying in the European Union and with so many influential people and institutions behind the campaign I think it will be difficult to see anything changing when the EU referendum takes place on June 23rd.

However, what is clear is that there is also an appetite for the Leave vote and looking at recent polls they are still very close. Therefore, I fully expect to see the currency markets to remain uncertain during this time.

The Greek issue has recently hit the headlines again with the country due to make its next repayment by the end of July and the recent Eurogroup meeting has raised concerns that the Greeks may default on their next payment.

When the Greek crisis originally occurred this saw Euro levels fall and the problems currently occurring have caused the Euro to weaken and I expect Sterling Euro exchange rates to improve during the early part of the week.

On Wednesday the UK announces GDP figures for the first quarter of 2016 and I think this could show signs of the UK slowing down so any gains for Sterling are likely to come early in the week.

The Chancellor has missed his borrowing target and with average earnings having fallen recently this is why I expect GDP figures to be low. Therefore, if you need to buy Euros then it may be worth organising before Wednesday’s data.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Buying the Euro at it’s peak – When to buy the Euro

The pound has been pushing up against the euro recently, with a new 8 week high reached only this morning.  Central levels are now over 1.27 which when compared to only 10 days ago is quite an improvement. 2 weeks ago rates were 5 cents lower meaning that levels now should be and are being seen as an opportunity. To put it to scale, on a £200,000 transfer you are now getting in excess of €8,000 more.  This positive movement is the largest that we have seen through 2016 and has not been matched since September 2015.  It goes again to highlight the current opportunity, even without a crystal ball trying to forecast future change rates currently are attractive for euro buyers.

To take advantage of this current high please get in contact now, data later this afternoon is expected to pop the bubble. Contact myself STEVE EAKINS on hse@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Later today we have the update from the European Central Bank (ECB) with regards to their economic situation. Remembering that only last month they went through a host of changes. Speaking to a lot of people in the industry it seems very unlikely that there will be any other changes introduced this afternoon. It is a lot more probable that they will use the opportunity to ‘sell’ the euro, reassuring traders views on the the euro and making it more value and therefore expensive to buy.

Longer term, within the next 10 days, we have the start of May with the next round of economic data being released. As we move closer to the Brexit with now only 2 months to go we could see some more uncertainty being reflected in Sterling’s value. Longer term you have to review the posts that have been going up here for weeks; the argument is fairly strong that as we get closer to the Brexit vote sterling’s value will fall.

Saying that however currency rates do not move in a straight line and waiting for a short term opportunity is normally wise, the current level today is a prime example of what can be achieved with a pro-active approach.

For more information or indeed to register for such opportunities please feel free to contact me, Steve Eakins, via hse@currencies.co.uk

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Steve Eakins) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on HSE@Currencies.co.uk   and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside or outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

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