Category Archives: Sterling strength

UK votes to Leave! Sterling Slides! What next?

The people have spoken and the UK is out. Whilst at the time of writing it is mathematically possible it would mean almost every vote would have to be Remain, statistically impossible! Sterling has hit 1.3218 on the USD nearly 12% down on yesterday. Sterling has hit 1.2012 against the Euro over 9% down and GBPAUD has slipped 10% nearly hitting 1.79!

If you have a transaction to consider involving buying or selling the pound now is the time to be making some plans from this largely unexpected movement! If you wish to run through or discuss anything this morning please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Great rates are available if you’re worried about today’s vote

Are you worried about the outcome of the EU Referendum? Despite polls, bookmakers and investors alike placing their faith in a Stay, there is always the possibility that they could be wrong. After all, polls are not always indicative of final results and if bookmakers were always right, they wouldn’t lose.

Take the Ireland VS Italy Euro game yesterday, Italy were 2:1 to win, as it happened, they lost to Ireland at 10:1, and there is nothing suggesting that they could be wrong again.

The market, unknowingly continued to trade right into the maelstrom of the recession 8 years ago, mistakes happen.

To add to this, the polls are tight, some show remain ahead, others show lead ahead, some even show a 50:50 split which doesn’t add to confidence.
If we look at current exchange rates, GBPEUR is trading at 1.30, back in April rates were as low as 1.23, a low not seen in over 2 years. In the event of a Brexit, we could return to these times.

More interestingly, GBPUSD is trading at 1.48 and similarly to GBPEUR, rates 2 months ago were at a record low since the recession, a Brexit could see rates return to these lows.

And then there is GBPAUD, which is flirting with the 2.0 range, rates prior to 2015/early 2016 we hadn’t seen since 2009, rates we may not see if the UK opt out of the EU.
The point is this, Sterling is on a high with less than a day before the results, if the UK leave the EU, the Pound could weaken drastically. If you don’t want to risk an opportunity like this, email rdl@currencies.co.uk so I can help you with your currency needs.

Buy Pound Sterling now before it becomes more expensive

It’s almost like the results of the Referendum have already come to light. Investors are piling into the Pound, the bookmakers have upped their odds again of a Remain and the polls yet again, put Remain in the lead.

As it stands, these factors in my opinion, scream BUY Sterling now!

It’s been said again and again that the Pound will soar in the event of a Remain, and this is likely to ring true based on the market movements, confidence in a Remain vote is good for Sterling.

Do you have Euros to sell for Sterling? Current exchange rates of 0.76 are still attractive given that a remain vote could push the currency pair into the lower 0.70’s, rates not seen since the end of last year. The same could be said for US Dollar sellers, levels of mid 0.60’s could be tested in the event of a Remain possibly lower, given the FED’s latest reports on slower US economic growth, pushing hopes of a FED hike back further. These levels again, have not been seen since prior to the new year.

UPDATE 12:30pm
This morning we have witnessed market movements of more than half a cent in favour of GBP, USDGBP has fallen 0.7 cents in the space of 4 hours whilst EURGBP fell half a cent between 10am and 10:30am. Confidence in a Remain is still gaining momentum so in the event you have a requirement for Sterling, email rdl@currencies.co.uk sooner rather than later.

The best way to predict the future is to create it!

The next 48 hours and next week could see excessive volatility on sterling exchange rates with swings of up to 10% not unexpected. If you are considering a currency exchange in the next few weeks or months the decision today and tomorrow could change your rate dramatically, now is not a time to be too complacent! On a Leave vote the pound could slip by up to 10 or 15% according to some reports whilst a Remain vote will see the pound rise by I would say 5-8%. At the moment the market has priced in a roughly 70% chance of a Remain vote so the big risk in this event will be the Leave vote which would seer the rates fall so dramatically. If you are considering a trade currently and wish to check your exchange rate or get some useful information on options please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

A Leave vote will signal big changes and uncertainty as the pound will be subject to big changes in the UK’s relationship with Europe and the wider world. The Brexiteer argument will suggest this will open up new opportunities but I don’t think anyone can deny the potential negative impact a vote to Leave on the economy. At the moment we just don’t know exactly what will happen in the future and therefore I would suggest a Leave vote is the big risk to the pound.

If you are considering a transaction in the future I would strongly suggest making some plans in advance is a very sensible move to try and avoid the risk of losing a great deal of money. Excessive volatility on the exchange rate could cause great distress and hanging on to see what happens might prove very costly. We are working around the clock to support anyone who has a currency transfer to consider, if there is anything you are looking to do or to receive information on please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

How will the Referendum Result Affect GBP Exchange Rates?

Sterling has been on a roller-coaster ride this week, with all eyes now firmly fixed on tomorrow’s EU referendum. The Pound has spiked this week against all the major currencies following a YouGov poll on the weekend, which indicated that the Remain camp had taken a small lead. The markets are in disarray at the moment and we are seeing aggressive spikes off the back of these pre-referendum polls, which are not always a great indicator of the overall opinion.

Personally I do feel we will see a Remain vote but I am not overly confident of this and I certainly wouldn’t be placing a wager on it. I feel the key question now for clients and investors alike, is what is the likely reaction to each result?

I do feel that a Remain vote will solidify Sterling’s position but whether we will see an aggressive move up against the EUR in particular I’m not so sure. I feel the markets are now pricing in the likelihood that we’ll stay and therefore a small rise is possible but I doubt it will be ground-breaking. I think it is far more likely that we will see the Pound nosedive should a Leave vote come to fruition and this is my concern for those clients holding the Pound, who are gambling on a positive result.

Even the Leave campaigners have accepted that there will be a period of economic instability and this is more than likely to heap pressure onto the Pound. Therefore I would be extremely tempted to secure any Sterling positions ahead of the referendum result, which is due out early Friday morning.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to secure a rate ahead of the EU referendum results on Friday, or are keen to discuss the currency market conditions and forecasts ahead of a future exchange, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for Matt.

Sterling Euro exchange rates and the impact of the EU referendum (Tom Holian)

We are now just one day away from when the voting starts in what is arguably one of the biggest events in UK economic history. The EU referendum has made headline news for weeks with the polls still extremely close.

Sentiment concerning either a Remain or a Leave vote has caused big swings for Sterling Euro exchange rates during the last few weeks and with the Remain camp appearing to be in the lead at the moment if we see the vote coming out in favour of remaining on Friday morning I think we will see Sterling strengthen vs the Euro.

However, the amount of positive movement for Sterling may be limited if the voting is very close.

According to the most recent betting odds it seems as though Scotland is heavily in favour of voting to stay in the European Union and as with the general election last year it may be the Scots who have the deciding vote.

I personally expect to see a Remain vote but as the decision is ultimately decided by the public then the outcome is still uncertain until at some point on Friday.

Many of my clients have already purchased their currency owing to the volatility in the days ahead or are considering buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date and removes the risk of where markets may up end up following the EU referendum results.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 and experienced the credit crunch, Scottish referendum and the various general elections we could see even further volatility on GBPEUR rates depending what happens when the results are announced.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on your exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBPEUR rates forecast ON THE RESULT OF THE BREXIT VOTE

Sterling rates have SPIKED. The Pound has climbed over 2 cents against the single currency and 3 cents against the dollar. GBPUSD climbed by its biggest daily amount in over 7 years and GBPEUR was a similar record breaking day with the largest movement this year. If you want to take advantage of these gains you can do this within as short as time as 10 minutes – get in contact via email at hse@currencies.co.uk if this is of interest.

The reason for these gains was driven by a change in the Polls suggesting the ‘Remain’ campaign is back in the lead. The vote is now only 72 hours away with initial results expected to start being released from 7 am on Friday. This is the main talking point in the market at the moment and indeed the main driving factor on the market.  Last week we were 3 cents lower for GBPEUR levels so this current level shows quite an opportunity. Moving forward we can either expect to see rates continue to climb if the next poll suggests the same outcome, with a ‘Remain’ win. Alternatively profit of the speculators and traders could be taken out of the market resulting in rates dropping down again.  As per usual, when we see movements of this level the peak is normally quickly thereafter when the SPIKE is at its top.  Here we offer SPIKE notifications for exactly this reason, helping our clients achieve closer to the top of the market.

On the result of the news on Friday, rates may either climb if the Uk stay in the EU or crash if they vote to leave. If you are a buyer of GBPEUR or GBPUSD and rolling over this event then in either case actiong quickly on Friday will be key. If it is a REMAIN the best levels will be on the first spike, if it is a LEAVE then we expect rates to continue to fall for a few days as the ramifications are calculated. As a result ‘pulling the plaster off quickly’ may be the best tactic.

If you want to move quickly on the result make sure to get in contact – email me now, before you forget with a summary of your situation and your contact details so you can get ready to act from 7am on Friday morning UK time. Email me now at hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD surges above 1.46 and GBP/EUR heads for 1.30 as Brexit risk falls ( Daniel Wright)

If you wanted proof that the EU referendum was creating a volatile market look no further than the current GBPUSD rates. Cable exchange rates have moved almost 3 ½ cents up in the last 24 hours owing thanks to the pollsters boosting the remain probability.

The latest poll indicated a 3-point lead for the Remain camp which has cushioned Sterling ahead of Friday’s results. Despite confidence in a remain vote it is worth noting that the last few polls have all put Leave in the lead, therefore I would still exercise caution in the event you have an outstanding currency exchange requirement.

I am still of the opinion that the Remain camp will pull through. In this event I would predict GBPUSD exchange rates to push through the 1.50’s, levels not seen since Janet Yellen announced her 4 rate hikes back in December of 2015. With a remain vote I expect GBPUSD rates to continue to follow a positive trend until the FED fulfill their promise.

The next question is when will the FED hike rates? As we know the potential for a Brexit turned Yellen away from a hike in June although US economic releases have been mixed and inflation still sits well below the 2% target. Pound to US Dollar exchange rates could remain attractive until a hike decision in September possibly later due to the US election.

In the event the UK withdraw from the EU I envisage this to be negative for many economies due in most part to the uncertainty and impact it may have on commodity prices. If investment moves away from the UK to safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar, we could see unwarranted strength for the Dollar which would impact commodity economies. This in turn could also impact the odds of a FED hike this year. Another factor to consider is the impact it may have on the Eurozone, the UK leaving the EU is likely to negatively impact the Euro, if the UK withdraw from the EU, further budget would be required from the remaining EU nations to fill the financial hole the UK has left behind.

We wait with anticipation for the results on Friday but hope that a Remain unfolds, those looking to purchase currency with Sterling may be in for a treat.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service.

If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

Sterling on the rise against the Euro following opinion poll (Tom Holian)

We are now only a few days away from one of the biggest political and economic events in the UK’s history when the UK goes to vote in the EU referendum on Thursday.

Votes should be in by early Friday morning depending how close the voting is and with the most recent YouGov poll showing a marginal lead for the Remain vote at 44% compared to 43% this has caused Sterling to rally against all major currencies including the Euro and the US Dollar.

The vote will be crucial to how Sterling Euro exchange rates will move in the near future but the outcome is currently far too close to call. Therefore, one thing is likely is that we will see big movements for the currency pair between GBPEUR rates.

Personally, I expect to see a Remain vote when the results are announced and I base this on the fact that so many important institutions are backing a Remain vote including the Bank of England, International Monetary Fund and the European Union to name but a few.

I have worked in this industry since 2003 and have been present during the credit crunch, Scottish referendum and various general elections during this period and all have caused big movements for Sterling exchange rates but arguably this event could be even more volatile.

If you have a currency requirement involving Sterling and Euro and are worried about the potential risk that the next few days may bring then it may be worth looking at a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

The impact on currency of the Brexit vote (Tom Holian)

If you’re looking to either buy Euros or sell Euros then we could be in for one of the biggest events for years on the foreign exchange markets this week.

Many people are extremely concerned of what may happen when the UK votes on the EU referendum on Thursday and we should know the outcome by early Friday morning.

Having personally worked in the currency markets since 2003 I have worked during the credit crunch era, the Scottish referendum and the various general elections during this time but this week we could even bigger movements for GBPEUR rates compared to these previous events.

Over the last 3 weeks Sterling has come under huge pressure vs the Euro falling by as much as 7 cents from the high to the low. This has been caused by the uncertainty of the Brexit vote and the Leave campaign has certainly gained a lot of momentum during this time.

I have been writing these articles on this particular subject for some time now and I personally expect the UK to vote to Remain in the European Union and if so we could see the Pound recover some of these losses.

The various opinion polls have shown the Leave campaign in the lead but often when people want change they are more vocal about the subject and also the polls are relatively small compared to the many millions who will vote next week. Indeed, the polls for both the Scottish referendum and the general election were completely different to the eventual outcome.

However, what is crucial is how close the vote may be as if we see only a small minority in favour of staying in this could cause further uncertainty for Sterling as there is clearly an appetite for change with the UK’s relationship between the European Union.

For anyone worried about the potential outcome of the referendum there is always the option of buying a forward contract which means even if you don’t have the full amount of money available or don’t have to make a payment for a few months then you can fix your exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer due soon then contact me for a brief explanation of the process of how I can help you save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank.

I look forward to hearing from you. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

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