Category Archives: Sterling strength

Greece to leave the Euro? Exchange Rate Forecast – When to BUY or SELL EUR USD – Andrew Bromley

Eurozone – Euro Crisis

2015 is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic years in recent trading history. This weekends shock move towards a Greek debt default has made predicting the outcome even harder. I personally remain of the opinion that Greece will remain in the Eurozone and Euro, but tomorrows repayment of €1.6 Bn Euros looks set to be unpaid. With a payment of over €3 Bn due next month

Greece has declared this week as a public holiday in order to set up for an extraordinary referendum on Sunday as to whether or not to stay in the Eurozone.

Here’s a point to note… The average Greek pensioner has had their payments cut by 40% and are supporting 3 generations. Why would they vote to stay in the Eurozone when there is no light at the end of the tunnel?!

Obviously that is an opinion and realistically what the negotiating parties are attempting to avoid. Could we see yet another extension to say March 2016??

All in all things are pretty bleak for Euro holders, especially those holding their Euros in  Greece. Unfortunately Greece look set to implement capital controls, preventing withdrawals of over €60 per day from leaving the banks. This too little too late as over €1 Bn has been leaving the country daily for the last few weeks, drastically wiping value off of the bank balance sheets.

Those with Euros to sell, you should have nerves of steel if you’re considering holding on! Not only is the Greek situation so dire but if you’re buying GBP, don’t expect the Pound to hand much ground back to the ‘single currency’. With the UK set to raise interest rates in 2016 it should go from strength to strength.

USD Forecast

A tricky Nonfarm Payroll announcement is the key data for the week, this Thursday rather than Friday (due to Independence Day on Friday). I’m personally still in the camp believing a rate hike will materialise in September. A strong ‘print’ for the Nonfarm figures would certainly be good news for the Greenback and would certainly turn some of the analysts against the hike in to a more positive position. Crucially the unemployment rate has worsened over the last few months – it is important to see this improve.

CAD Exchange Rates

A big swing has been seen as the weekend closed in the 1.93s, recovering to the 1.95s comfortably this afternoon. Feel free to take a look at www.cadforecast.com for a more in-depth CAD overview. I personally think the Pound is heading to the 2.0 level but with a few slips en-route. I’d therefore look at fixing whilst the market is 1.95 and above to secure levels that offer currently a 7 year high.

If you have a currency transfer and would like to discuss it feel free to drop me a line. I can assist you in achieving award winning exchange rates, but also simplifying the process…

(The currencies discussed are a snapshot – all ‘major’ currency requirements looked at!)

Either email me – AJB@currencies.co.uk

or call the trading line 01494 787 478 and quote this blog!

Have a good evening

Andrew Bromley

 

 

1.43 on the markets! Two days to save the Euro!

GBPEUR has rocketed as Asian markets open and investors begin dumping the Euro in anticipation of the two most important days in the history of the Euro. What happens now will decide not just Greece’s fate but also the rest of the Eurozone. Sterling is benefitting rising against all currencies so far but to make a firm prediction on just what will happen is incredibly difficult.

There is a simple formula to follow here. As the uncertainty increases with no deal the Euro will weaken and the pound should rise. This will only be true up to a point where if Greece leaves the Euro the UK would suffer some financial losses. The USD will rise as it has done possibly significantly if Greece does leave. The commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD are struggling with the uncertainty too!

If a deal is struck then the Euro should recover and sterling which had benefitted from safe haven funds, weaken. A deal is what I believe will happen because I don’t think the alternative is worth contmeplating! One thing is for sure the next couple of days are significant for anyone with a currency transfer to consider. If you wish to get the latest news and understand more about what is and will drive your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

We are here to provide information but also offer a service for international money transfers at the best exchange rates. If you wish to learn more and check your exchange rates please contact me and I hope you see your rate!

Jonathan

jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Business hours 00 44 1494 787 478

Time is running out for the Greeks (Tom Holian)

With just days to go for the Greeks to come up with their next repayment of EUR1.6bn to the IMF time appears to be running out.

All of the recent meetings during June have all ended with no resolution.

Another meeting takes place today involving Eurozone finance ministers and German chancellor Angela Merkel has urged the Greeks to take the deal on offer which she has described as an ‘extraordinarily generous offer.’

The most recent deal on offer would have released over EUR15bn which EUR1.8bn would have been available immediately allowing them to pay the IMF debt due by Tuesday.

A real sticking point is that Europe wants bigger spending cuts and change to pensions which so far Greece has been adamant that they will not change. The Syriza party which came in a few months was billed as an anti-austerity party but it faces huge international pressure to change.

With the ongoing uncertainty this is creating excellent opportunities to buy Euro at close to 8 year highs.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The Greek Deadline is nearly upon us! (Daniel Johnson)

Greek ministers failed to find a solution regarding Greece’s debt crisis. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has stated that the relationship between the two parties is reaching breaking point and it now appears that we’re almost at a stalemate. Greece has until Tuesday to repay the IMF €1.6bn or face a default and a possible ‘Grexit’.

If you a Euro buyer I think you are in an excellent position, buying in the 1.40s is an incredible rate to purchase at. Euro sellers however it is a serious gamble to hang on, if there is a Grexit you could be in an awful spot for a long time.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

 

Relatively quiet day on the markets sees some analysts looking ahead into 2016 (Joshua Privett)

After months of massive market swings today was a day where everything ‘fell into place’ on the currency markets. We are still in limbo concerning the Greek crisis, all US data releases came in as expected (no surprises = no change in currency rates), and no dramatic political events dominated news coverage. This has given many market participants a chance to finally take a breath and look at their current position.

We are very close to 8 year highs for GBP-EUR rates, it’s easy to see that there is a lot more room for the rates to come down than continue to push into new highs. We have been shown already just how much these current rates depend on the financial crisis in Greece. Previously when a deal has been close the rates have swung down almost 5 cents in the space of a week of trading.

Tuesday, when Greece finally are forced to make a deal before a debt repayment to the IMF is due, will likely produce the same result. A substantial chunk of the uncertainty surrounding the Euro at the moment will be removed, causing investors to flock to the single currency once more, looking for easy returns when the currency starts to gain value. Those looking to buy Euros, personally I would be looking to move before the weekend to secure these historic highs and avoid any good news revealing itself over the weekend and dampening any rate you were looking to achieve. Euro sellers should find some tempting opportunities next week after a weeks of dismay at where the rates have been travelling.

Similarly with the GBP-USD and GBP-CAD (Canadian Dollar) both are at historic highs recently, with the USD at the best it’s been in 2015 and the CAD the best in 7 years, those looking to purchase either should seriously consider doing so ahead of any future requirements. Why wait when the Pound will likely be held in check by a struggling Eurozone, weakening its appeal compared to its partners over the Atlantic? For more information on current trends click here.

With buying opportunities across the board, those looking to use Sterling as a purchasing currency should consider locking in the rates as they currently are in a forward contract. This can peg the rates for up to 12 months, or as short as a few weeks, so that you do not leave yourself exposed for what is expected to be an incredibly volatile end of the month. Even a movement of 1 cent could make property purchases thousands of pounds more expensive, it makes little sense to gamble on further gains when the rates available are so attractive. Email me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk for more details, tailored advice to your situation, and a free quote on your transfer.

*Special Report*

With some analysts focussing entirely on the short term – e.g. ‘Consensus expectations are the Euro could rally sharply if Greece strike a new debt relief deal’, others are starting to consider the more long-term implications. Researchers at Commerzbank see gradual climbs towards 1.45 for the Euro in 2016.

This is mainly due to Euro weakness they believe, as Sterling is expected to struggle against all other currencies due to disinflationary growth. So we will not necessarily perform strongly on the currency markets, but we won’t be as bad as our counter-parts in the single currency. So a mixed report, showing this volatility will be continuing heavily. We will have a lot to write about, and you will have a lot to consider. I would not take such predictions at face value, the markets are currently so volatile that forecasting more than 3 months in advance is a stretch, but it is interesting to highlight just how unrepresentative GBP-EUR rates can be for the general strength of Sterling across the board.

 

Greek Bailout Negotiations Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rate continue to be affected by the unstable economic situation in Greece and as a result we have seen the Pound spike back above 1.40 this week. The Greek debt crisis continues to dominate headlines and with no agreement yet in place and with Tuesday’s repayment deadline fast approaching, the situation is looking very grave indeed.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has today resumed talks with Greece’s creditors, in the hope that an agreement can finally be reached after days of unproductive talks. Whilst Greece is trying to provide a reform package that will satisfy its international creditors, it is refusing to budge on key issues including pensions and public-sector wages. This is proving to be a major sticking point and unless Greece will negotiate the IMF’s position is unlikely to change. If an agreement is not reached then Greece will be given no further funds from their bailout package and will default on their debt, a scenario which is likely to spell the end of their participation in the single union.

However, I am still of the opinion that this scenario remains unlikely, certainly in the short-term. The IMF & ECB have remained steadfast in their support of Greece’s continuation as a member of the EUR and far too time, energy and most importantly money has been thrown at the situation for them to allow to implode. ECB President Mario Draghi will not want to lose Greece on his watch and my instinct tells me that they will most likely come to an 11th hour solution, which will sweep this under the carpet for another 6 months until we find ourselves in a similar situation again.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling Euro breaks past 1.40 as predicted (Tom Holian)

If you’ve been reading my previous articles then you’ll not be too surprised to see Sterling gain vs the Euro today as the Greek saga continues.

Last night’s discussions did not end with a deal and with only a week away from their payment to the IMF the clock is ticking faster and faster resulting in Euro weakness.

We are now at the 2nd best exchange rate for buying Euros in 8 years creating some excellent buying opportunities to send money overseas.

The Greek news is dominating the market and until this is resolved we could see some further gains but we could still be days away from a deal being reached.

I think a deal will be in place by the end of the month which is likely to settle global currency markets and bring some certainty to the situation but until then if you have to buy Euros it is worth taking advantage of these current highs.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Currency Forecast – EUR USD Forecast – Andrew Bromley

Pound / Euro Forecast

Another huge day for the Eurozone today, as the world watches and awaits news of a bailout. The ‘Grexit’ news is being heavily coved by all forms of press, both local and international, making the negotiations impact the market with greater effect. This morning has seen GBP-EUR creep over the 1.40 level, as traders on European markets move the markets with their trades. Although my on-going belief is that Greece will secure a resolution (in my opinion an extension to March 2016), don’t expect it to be a smooth ride! Even yesterday Alexis Tsipras provided unacceptable negotiation documents to the European Heads of State, delaying the meetings yet further!

Should Greece secure or look set to secure a bailout, expect the Euro to strengthen somewhat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correction back to the 1.35 level but realistically only once all outstanding aspects (State Pensions etc) have been sorted. At the same time however one shouldn’t ignore the risk of ‘capital controls’ being imposed. Capital Controls are a limit on withdrawal from state banks as at the moment there is over €1 Bn leaving Greek Banks every day! This would be a tragedy for those holding Euros in Greece, currently an incredibly risky location for your currency!

I personally think that with rates within roughly 1 cent for their recent high, the risk of a rapid decline in rates far outweighs the potential gain of a further cent on the exchange rate. I’d therefore be Buying Euros as soon as possible. If you are selling Euros, the first thing I’d do is get them back to ‘Blighty’ where they are safe! Once repatriated, I’d then be looking to secure a rate to SELL should the market hit 1.36 or less.

With the general outlook for the UK positive and an interest rate hike due in early 2016, I don’t think that exchange rates will dip much below 1.35. Euro sellers should look at this as a potential opportunity to sell before rates push on!

USD Exchange Rate Outlook

The next move for the US Dollar is one of the most heavily published and talked about moves across all media forms. There are many analysts indicating that the Interest Rate increase would strengthen the Dollar too much and subsequently do damage to US Exports. I personally feel that although the Rate Hike would prevent some economic risks, the Federal Reserve will still go ahead. Former murmurings had been for either a June or September hike – I am very much in the camp expecting a hike in September and feel that 1.50 and below is more of a realistic direction for the pair. The Fed have formally indicated that data will guide the decision to hike and with improved ‘Nonfarm Payroll’ figures and retail sales, good progress is being made. We did see a slight slip in the Unemployment rate, however I wouldn’t be surprised if that is corrected at the next print in early July.

USD traders should be wary of Durable Goods figures this afternoon and US GDP figures tomorrow at 13:30.

If I were buying USD I’d be taking advantage of current levels and if selling, aiming for levels either side of 1.50 depending on the timescale available…

Finally, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar traders should seriously consider their position in the market! Rates are hitting dizzy heights as the global demand in the commodities slows and impacts their economies. I feel threat the NZD will potentially fall back to the 2.20 level and AUD to 2.0 so in my opinion – buy the Dollars now!!

It is also worth looking at buying CHF (Swiss Francs) and Canadian Dollars as rates are incredibly favourable! 

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to get in touch. There are various options available should you not have the full amount of funds in your account at this time (almost buy now pay later).

Either drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 (please quote this blog).

Have a good day!

Andrew Bromley

 

Is the Greek Debt Issue going to be resolved? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have started to fall in the last hour as the rumours increase that a debt resolution will take place this evening.

The Eurogroup meeting has been dubbed an emergency by German Chancellor Angela Merkel this weekend so it suggests that a resolution may indeed take place.

The currency markets have been rather jittery this afternoon and if a deal is reached overnight I expect to see a dramatic strengthening of the single currency vs Sterling.

However, the previous meetings have all ended with no agreement and if the deal isn’t ratified this could result in the Greeks defaulting on their repayment due to the IMF by the end of this month.

Eurozone data out tomorrow comes in the form of manufacturing and services and with the data being negative recently if there is no deal overnight I expect to see Euro weakness vs the Pound following this data release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.