Category Archives: Sterling strength

What really lies ahead for sterling exchange rates?

The rollercoaster ride of 2016 on sterling exchange rates is far from over! There are still numerous events up ahead to trigger large unexpected swings that will impact the value of your currency purchase, have you made any plans for this? Understanding how markets react, all of your options and having a helpful hand to guide you through will offer a real advantage to securing the best rate of exchange.

Economic data in the UK is not the main driver for the pound, the big factor is political concerns relating to the Brexit plus attitutudes to the UK viewed from a global perspective. Take the USD this week, we saw a big devaluing in the value of sterling for no real reason other than the fact the USD was appreciating in value in the face of a possible US Interest rate rise. Sterling was sold off as traders backed the buck – more on this later. Numerous data sets showing a relatively healthy UK economy should be taken with a pinch of salt until we get the firm economic data for the the quarter since the Referendum next month.

Sterling exchange rates will remain volatile and lacking direction until we get clear direction from the UK Government as to when Article 50 will be triggered. For now clients buying and selling the pound will have to contend with the mixed messages emanating from politicians. Theresa May has said she is in no rush to trigger Article 50, Boris Johnson indicated this week it might be early 2017 – and was soon lambasted for saying this.

Looking at some of the big banks predictions on sterling rates offers little help. Lloyds are predicting 1.20 by the year end whilst Dankse Bank are showing 1.08! All in all if you are looking to buy the pound there are likely to be further improvements between now and the New Year. Much will of course depend on which currency you are holding on what happens. If you are selling US Dollars will a Trump Presidency send the USD into freefall? Or will the steady hand of Clinton see the US raise interest rates at Christmas? If you are selling Euros will a decline in Eurozone economic activity trigger a further round of Quantitative Easing by the ECB? Or will renewed confidence in the region stem from uncertainty elsewhere?

It is currently the best time to buy the pound with US Dollars in 30 years and the best in 3 years with Euros. This isn’t great news if you are holding pounds looking to US Dollars, Euros or any other currency but as you can see things could get easily get worse for sterling.

In such an uncertain market with no clear direction a careful examination of all of your options including the Stop Loss and Limit order is crucial. A Stop Loss limits any losses if rates fall, a Limit order guarantees a price if rates rise. A forward contract allows you to lock in today’s rate for settlement up to 18 months in the future. me

It is almost six months ago today I was asked to speak on the BBC regarding the Brexit. At the time I suggested that on a Leave vote the UK economy would not just wither away. I pointed to the hundreds of thousands of businesses and consumers doing trade across border and highlighted how even on a Leave vote those links would remain. I discussed with the interviewer how nothing would change quickly and markets would have time to digest any news following an initial shock. All of this has so far proved true and it is with confidence I predict that the coming months will not see any fundamental changes in the situation, I believe that will all be reserved for 2017. However there will be lots of movement on the pound as the markets react to all manner of speculation and rumour just like it has since and leading up to the vote.

If you wish to discuss all of your options, the market and what to look out for on the rates please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am Chief Analyst and Associate Director of the UK’s largest privately owned foreign exchange PLC brokerage and have been working for our company for 7 years of the 17 it has been in business. If you have a transaction to make I will discuss with you all of the options available and everything happening in the market to help you maximise your exchange rate. Even if you believe you have everything covered it might be useful for another pair of eyes to have a look to provide some useful information.

 

Buying Euro and Dollar rates see some support today after a nervous week (Joshua Privett)

Today has been the first day since last Friday where the net result for the day is actually in the green for anyone considering buying Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars. Whilst the gains are not enough to send anyone jumping around the room, it is a signal to markets that the narrative surrounding the Pound has changed.

Part of this is that there has been some positive news today from the UK itself, with confirmation that car manufacturing numbers have reached a record high post-Brexit producing a diamond from what has been a rough week for Sterling across the board.

So the cheap Pound is boosting exports, but this is struggling to challenge the dominant narrative surrounding the Pound which has been interest rates. But again, we are seeing some respite in this area for Euro and Dollar buyers.

The reason for the slide on the Pound which this website has extensively covered was due to the heavy hints last Thursday that there may be a further interest rate cut in the UK before the turn of the year. Coupled with the profit taking activities by speculators on Friday afternoons, the effect this had on the Pound was severe with 2 cent losses on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD last Friday.

The pressure was also piled on Sterling as the USA were on the verge of actually raising rates yesterday evening, yet shied away at the last moment. Indirectly, this would have made the Pound seem like a less attractive commodity by comparison if the Dollar had raised interest rates. The avoidance of this means the Pound won’t be losing value in this area due to decreased demand.

Tomorrow the main attraction for currency markets will be business confidence figures in the Eurozone for their service and manufacturing sectors, which are set to slow a slight decrease from previous months due to some of the recent slowdowns recorded in Eurozone’s powerhouse economy – Germany. This should creating tempting opportunities on GBP/EUR to compliment the 0.7 cent rise seen today.

However, Friday profit taking should come around the corner once more for anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, whether buying Euros or Dollars.

As the above paragraph alluded to, on Fridays high street traders who have been speculating heavily on the currency markets all week must allocate their profits in a stable currency whilst they are away from their desks. This protects their gains whilst markets are still operating from 6-11pm on Friday and 2-6am on Monday before they return. The Pound has been anything but stable in recent weeks, so we are seeing demand for it plummet during this period, and therefore its value by association.

So based on the current expectations Euro buyers in particular could see some improved opportunities during the first part of tomorrow, yet Euro and Dollar buyers alike will likely suffer.

If you have a GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirement in the short to medium term I strongly recommend contacting me this evening or tomorrow morning on jjp@currencies.co.uk whilst markets are quieter to discuss the options open to you to ensure any tempting peaks which emerge tomorrow are reached, and that your currency purchase is safeguarded from any particularly adverse movements.

With the expected volatility tomorrow a well timed transfer could save you thousands on an upcoming purchase, and I will highlight that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere in the past.

Euro or Dollar buyers can also fix the rate of exchange ahead of an upcoming transfer, essentially pre-booking your currency, to avoid seeing the budget of any future purchase being eaten into.

Euro and Dollar sellers alike can also get in contact to discuss the potential to secure any highs reached to buy the Pounds during the final hours of the week, as you can secure a desired level should it become available even for a few moments outside of UK trading hours. You can fill out the form below and I respond as soon as I am able to.

 

When will we see Sterling bounce back? (Daniel Johnson)

Pound Forecast

The media have been very negative following the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. At some points the fear mongering has been overbearing. However the damage has now been done and now it is time to keep calm and carry on. Although poor UK data is filtering through, I think Sterling is chronically undervalued at present and although there may be further falls the pound short term, I think the Pound will gain strength against all major currencies medium to long term. A pound rally will not be quick, trade negotiations will be long and arduous. It is estimated over two thousand skilled negotiators will be needed to get all the deals sewn up. Australia is one of the most forthcoming countries with regards to getting trade deals in place and it is estimated that will take two-and-a-half years.  So although I think the pound will recover, but do not expect 1.30 anytime soon on GBP/EUR.

The US rate decision was a non-event as predicted , despite the FED meant to be acting as a separate entity to the government I can’t help but think the election influenced the decision on  a rate hike. If Trump gets in expect USD to lose value due to his radical ideas regarding trade deals and immigration.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

Sterling exchange rates drop once again as hopes of a ‘soft brexit’ fade, so where will the Pound go from here? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is facing increasing pressure at the moment as the impact of the UK’s upcoming exit from the EU is unsettling financial markets.

Sterling exchange rates dropped substantially as soon as it was announced that the UK electorate had voted to leave the EU, with the GBP to USD exchange rate dropping to a 31 year low, and the GBP to EUR exchange rate dropping to a 3 year low along with many other major currency pairs.

There was a slight rebound as a number of particularly positive business surveys within key UK industries showed that a weaker Pound had actually boosted economic output within the UK in it’s new post-brexit-vote environment. That rebound has now been reversed as we edge closer to those 52 week lows, and I think it’s worth noting that cable (GBP/USD) has now dropped back below the key psychological level of 1.30 which may trigger further falls for the pair.

Now that it’s common knowledge that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will likely invoke Article 50 towards the beginning of next year, hopes of a prolonged ‘soft exit’ have dwindled and this is being reflected within currency markets as the Pound weakens pretty much on a daily basis at the moment.

Those with an upcoming currency exchange requirement which involves converting pounds into another major currency, may wish to consider moving on that sooner rather than later as many economists have predicted parity for GBP/EUR, our clients are still comfortably in excess of 10 cents from this level so moving now may be a wise decision come later in the year/next year.

Today’s major news release will be the most recent Fed Reserve Bank Interest Rate decision, and although no change is expected a move by the Fed is likely to create volatile trading conditions which we would usually trade around with our clients, as sensitive news releases such as this one can widen exchange rates and our sole purpose is to obtain great rates for our clients.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Sterling Under Pressure – When Should I Sell my GBP Position? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rates have dropped over the past week, with a run of inconsistent UK economic data handicapping any further advances for the Pound. GBP/EUR & GBP/USD in particular have shown sharp drops, with both pairs falling below 1.16 and 1.30 respectively at today’s lows. This has caused concern for those clients holding Sterling positions but as I alluded to in my previous posts, the Sterling strength seen earlier this month proved not to be sustainable. As such, any clients who did not protect their positions will now be questioning whether we will see a recovery over the coming weeks.

Whilst it is very difficult to predict exactly how the market will evolve, it has become clear that investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound is extremely low. Sterling positions remain fragile and as such I would not be prepared to gamble on an improvement, when there is no tangible evidence to support it. The silver lining for those clients holding GBP is that the Pound did find a foothold at the beginning of the month and this was not anticipated or predicted. This is further proof of how unpredictable the current markets can be and how investors are reacting to rumours as much as fact and this makes forecasting increasingly difficult.

With so much uncertainty hanging over the UK economy it’s no real surprise to see the Pound struggling. We keep hearing different opinions of when Article 50 will be triggered, which will ultimately trigger our Brexit, and these range from February 2017 to the end of 2018 or even beyond. This is what is causing investors to sell off their GBP positions and as such the Pound’s value is decreasing. Until this market uncertainty is removed I feel there will be a cap on how far Sterling can rise and whilst it’s difficult to pin point an exact benchmark this could be as low as 1.80/1.85. Whilst these levels seem very attractive in the current climate are you prepare to gamble on a potential 10 cent loss in order to gain only a few? These are the questions investors and clients need to ask themselves because whilst market conditions can change quickly and aggressively, there is no easy way to gauge how long the current trend will last.

A key decision now will be whether or not the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates again before the end of the year. With the markets now seemingly leaning towards this occurring, if it does come to fruition, expect things to get worse for the UK economy and ultimately the Pound before they get better.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one, then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the UK, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me Matthew Vassallo directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – We can help you exchange your currency too! (Daniel Wright)

We now have well over 150,000 readers a month and many of them have actually contacted us over the years asking for help with their exchange.

Every writer on this site works for one of the longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K and many readers aren’t aware that not only is it more likely that we can get you a much better price than your bank or the broker you have chosen to use, but we also pride ourselves on offering an extremely personal service, where you are allocated your own broker here that will help you along every step of the way.

We have a huge turnover, so our buying power is generally greater than others which we pass on to our clients and we do not just try and get you to do the deal as soon as possible just so that we can move on to the next one, we take great care in giving you all the information out there to help you make the best possible decision for you personally.

There are a number of contract types we offer, these include forward contracts, stop losses and limit orders and these are all designed to help you avoid adverse movement in the markets and to take advantage of any spikes in the market for you should they occur.

Most writers on this site have been with the company for over ten years now, so our wealth of experience can be extremely valuable when you are trying to make a decision on when to buy currency for your business or property transactions.

I (Daniel Wright – The creator of the site) am currently taking on new clients, we deal with exchanges ranging from £5000 up to multi million pound exchanges for celebrities and high net worth individuals, all in the strictest of confidence.

If have been reading the information on our site for a long period of time and you feel that I may be of use to you on an imminent exchange, or indeed one later in the future then you can get in contact with directly by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do so that I can prepare a summary of how we can proceed and then give you a call. Even if you are using another broker at present it would be highly unlikely that I will not be able to get you a better deal and a much more efficient level of service.

I look forward to speaking with you!

 

 

Sterling Drops Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a busy day for investors, with a host of key UK economic data releases taking centre stage. The markets were primed as the latest Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision was released, along with the subsequent minutes. This was preceded by UK Retail Sales figures, alongside a host of Eurozone and US inflation data released throughout the day.

Whilst the BoE decided to keep rates on hold at 0.25% as widely anticipated, it was the summary and minutes which caused the markets to shift. The BoE remained very cautious in their address and left themselves open to a further rate cut if necessary. The fact they mentioned this could come before the end of the year threw the markets into chaos and the Pound took a hit across the board as a result.

Sterling immediately lost value against the EUR & USD. GBP/EUR fell towards 1.17 at the low, whilst GBP/USD fell below 1.32. This once again proves how fragile the UK economy remains and how investor confidence remains cautious at best. For this reason, I continue to stress to any clients holding Sterling positions that they should be looking to protect themselves at every opportunity, as uncertainty breads fear and fear is likely to cause the currency in question to contract.

The Pound had lost value yesterday against both currencies following poor UK inflation data but this slide was halted following better than expected UK Retail Sales figures this morning. We have seen a run of extremely inconsistent data for the UK and whilst it did finally find a foothold in the market after some strong Manufacturing & Construction figures, it was not enough to protect Sterling form the inevitable drop off.

Whilst so much uncertainty continues to engulf the UK economy, which seems to be stuck in a relative state of limbo, the Pound will struggle to make a sustainable impart against either the EUR or USD under current market conditions.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one, then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the UK, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Exchanging Euros for Pounds hit it’s best level since August today, will the Pound continue to decline? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling fell pretty much across the board during today’s trading session, as the currency is coming under increasing pressure after posting some worse than expected economic figures recently.

Yesterday the Inflation figure (the consumer price index released by the Office for National Statistics) demonstrated that inflation isn’t growing at the pace expected by economists and financial analysts, and the Pound immediately weakened in the aftermath of the news release, and once again today the currency has been on the decline.

The falls are understandable as the Pound has been propped up by some very positive recent business surveys which saw the Pound climb between 4-5 cents against both the US Dollar and the Euro as well as other major currency pairs, but it’s the hard data like yesterdays figure which is bringing Sterling sellers back down to earth as the recent gains have been almost wiped out over the past couple of days.

Those with a currency requirement involving converting Pounds into another major currency, may wish to consider making that exchange sooner as opposed to later as if the current trend continues we may see all of the Pounds recent gains wiped out. The trend for GBP/EUR is currently negative and over the past couple of days we’ve witnessed the Pound trading at it’s lowest level against the Euro since August.

On the other hand, any of our clients, or potential clients looking to convert Euros/US Dollars/Aussie Dollars etc into Pounds are looking at levels close to between a 3 to 30 year high. Our brokerage offers improved rates of exchange than the high street banks do so get in touch if you would like to find out how you can make some extra money on a currency exchange you’re planning. It’s free and takes just a couple of minutes although it could end up saving you thousands of Pounds.

If you want to be kept up to date on the markets and you would also like to ensure that you are getting the very top levels of exchange for an imminent currency transfer or even a longer term one then I can help you with this.

Not only do we give clients up to date market information but we all work for one of the largest and longest serving currency brokerages in the U.K, so even if you have dealt with your current broker or bank for a long time I would be surprised if I could not show you a saving over what they are offering you – You can email me (Joseph Wright) directly on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally to discuss the various options we have available to you.

Inflation data to be key tomorrow with unemployment taking centre stage on Wednesday (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow  morning we have the release of inflation data from Europe first thing and from the U.K and this will be key for how the day pans out for both the Pound and Euro exchange rates.

Inflation can be a key data release and will no doubt show how much movement there is for a change in fiscal policy along with how an economy is performing.

On Wednesday morning we have unemployment and claimant count data for the U.K – Should we continue to see positive moves forward from ‘Brand Britain’ post referendum then the Pound may be in for a seriously good week… Any back tracking and investors and speculators will no doubt start to lose confidence and the momentum that Sterling has currently gained may well start to slip along with the rate of exchange.

Thursday may be the busiest day of all, with the Bank of England interest rate decision and U.K Retail sales figures.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out over the course of the week or indeed in the near future then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly as I should be able to save you a great deal on your exchange rate, even if you have al;ready been dealing with a broker for a long period of time it is rare that we cannot show a client a saving.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form below and I will personally get in touch to explain in more detail.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates set for further improvements this week (Joshua Privett)

Euro and Dollar buyers are already seeing some improvements this morning after some concerning dives at the back end of last week.

 

After a slow day today with little news to swing, GBP/EUR, GBP/USD or GBP/AUD either way, markets already seem to be looking ahead to later in the week and Tuesday will be when the ball really begins to roll for the week.

German inflation data should crack the already thinning armour on the Euro’s value, as the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy continues to flounder in this key area when measuring a currency’s value.

This should be complimented by the polar opposite in the UK with own inflation data which, after close to 15 months of consecutively underwhelming data, has had a sudden turnaround since the Brexit in June. It seems a healthy mixture of a cheaper Pound, increased summer consumer activity, alongside the gradual rise in oil prices is putting the UK back on course for its yearly target of 2% inflation.

On Thursday, we shall also have the Bank of England interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement. In August Euro and Dollar buyers will remember how this triggered a 2.5% loss on Sterling’s value in the space of three business days when the Bank cut interest rates.

Yet now the outlook for the UK economy is more cheerful. Business confidence surveys have seen the largest single-month improvement in over 25 years, and Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, was echoing these sentiments and praising the effects of the BOE’s recent economic intervention at a deposition to Parliament last week.

Should he echo those noises in the press conference, this increased confidence from the man at the helm of the UK economy should recoup some of the recent losses on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD since the Referendum.

However, there is a wildcard. UK unemployment data will be released on Wednesday which will be our first look at this area since the Leave vote (as notice periods have to be filled if there have been any job cuts or hiring freezes). Whilst forecasts are for job losses and a rise in those claiming unemployment benefits, the expectation is for a relatively small impact. But we have been surprised in this area before. There were a number of articles of job cuts at major financial institutions following the Brexit, and the wildcard is how many of these, and people in other sectors, managed to land on their feet immediately?

 

Just due to the sheer volume of information set to come out this week, anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me today on my direct line – 01494 787 478 – to discuss the options open to you to make sure any opportunities which emerge over the week are seized before any market snap-backs, and to ensure you are protected as you ride this marked sentiment against any adverse movements. If I am on the phone one the reception team will answer and try to put you through if I will be available within a few moments

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere by other currency exchange brokerages, and particularly high street banks. As such, with assistance in timing your transfer a brief conversation could save you a significant percentage on your upcoming Euro or Dollar purchase.

Euro and Dollar sellers can also get in contact to hear a live quote immediately, given that the outlook for this week seems largely detrimental for anyone considering moving a foreign currency into Sterling. You can also email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk or fill out the form below.