Category Archives: Sterling strength

Sterling Steadies at Near 4 Month High (James Lovick)

After an excellent rally for the last week the pound is finally hitting resistance at these higher levels. GBP EUR peaked just above 1.32 and is now sitting 1 cent lower whilst GBP USD is struggling to break 1.47. We should be coming to the end of the Remain campaign’s announcements as rules have now kicked in which prevent the government from issuing any further big publications to support their cause. The markets have now started to price in a greater chance that Britain will remain in the EU as a result of recent polls and bizarrely; looking at the odds at the bookmakers – The bookies don’t always get it right though!

As these new developments have now been priced in to the market then it means that any new developments from the Leave campaign are yet to be felt in the price of the pound. As such there is considerable more risk that the pound will see falls in the coming weeks in the run up to 23rd June. For anyone selling Euros or any other currency then my view is that there should realistically be some better opportunities approaching. The question is whether clients in this situation will be able to hold their nerve with almost another full month to go in what I feel could be one of the most volatile periods the pound will ever see.

When the Swiss National Bank removed it’s Swiss Franc peg it held with the Euro at the beginning of last year it created market movements by as much as 40% in a single day! Considering the scale of what this referendum actually means in Britain and Europe then exchange rates are open to extreme volatility. Anyone with a currency requirement would be wise to look at protecting themselves against the uncertainty by securing funds or part of funds well in advance of the referendum date.

Data after the Bank Holiday weekend includes Purchasing Managers Index data for the construction, manufacturing and services sectors as well as house price numbers. Sterling exchange rates are however more likely to be driven by referendum politics. European data is much more plentiful with inflation numbers and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday which is likely to cause a stir.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling at the Mercy of EU Referendum Polls (Daniel Johnson)

Yesterday The pound gained strength against the majority of major currencies. This was due to impressive retail sales data, positive inflation figures and the remain camp gaining significant momentum in the polls for the EU referendum. GBP/EUR hit a twelve week high at 1.32. GBP/USD 1.47 and GBP/AUD 2.05.

A Daily Telegraph poll show that 55% of the UK population wish to stay, 42% wish to leave with the remainder undecided. What was surprising however was that the remain camp had support from the majority of over 65s. Their findings also revealed that those in the undecided camp were twice as likely to vote to remain in the EU than to leave.

The Institute of Fiscal studies also announced that if the UK were to leave the EU the UK would face an extra two years of austerity. GDP would decline and there would be additional borrowing costs which would result in losses of £20-40bn.

The polls will be a key factor as to Sterling market position up until the day of the vote 23rd June. It is important to note that Sterling crashed a few days before the Scottish referendum and the general election.

We have seen a slight decline today for Sterling against most currencies due to poor GDP figures which has been caused by businesses unwilling to trade due to the uncertainty created by a possible Brexit. GBP/CAD fell more significantly due to the increase in oil price.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and by doing so I can beat any competitors rate of exchange. I am willing to provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. Fell free to drop me an e-mail at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Simply let me know the currency you are trading, time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of the trade. Thank you for reading my blog.

UK GDP Figures Halt the Pound’s Rise (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound’s recent rise came to an abrupt end this morning, following the release of the latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The official reading came out at 2%, which was under market expectation and the Pound immediately lost value as a result.

GBP/EUR dropped back to 1.3131 at today’s low and despite the recent improvement, I still feel the Pound remains in a fragile state. The markets seem to be moving off rumour as much as fact and with the upcoming referendum likely to cause further uncertainty, it is very difficult to predict exactly how things will unfold. Sterling did receive a boost earlier this week following the release of the latest EU poll, which indicated the Remain camp had a healthier lead than many thought.

I did anticipate a move up to the current levels ahead of next month’s referendum and despite the rise I still feel the polls we are seeing are likely to be fabricated. There will certainly be further developments on both sides before the final votes are cast on June 23rd and for this reason I wouldn’t be gambling on another major spike for GBP. It may be that following this morning’s poor data that Sterling has hit its glass ceiling.

We also need to consider the Bank of England’s (BoE) position, which has been to continually talk down facets of our economy, which has diluted investor confidence. They are keen to control Sterling’s value in the hope this will boost exports and ultimately narrow our ever growing trade deficit.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of my team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling continues to Rocket

Yesterday afternoon the GBP/EUR rate increased by another cent moving into the 1.31’s for the first time since the start of February. The big question for Euro buyers is if this improvement will continue or will there be a drop in the rate before the referendum?

The bookies and currency markets seem convinced that the Remain campaign has got a significant lead as we enter within a month of the vote.

I am of the opinion that the rate may well improve a little over the coming days, however if there is new information with regards to how the referendum vote may unfold the rate could start to fall again.

The big piece of recent news is that Greece has managed to agree terms to unlock a further €10.3bn in new loans. If there was not a breakthrough in these negotiations there could have been a repeat of last summer where Greece was a day away from being bankrupt. No doubt this outcome will settle the markets.

Today there is a business sentiment data release for Germany which is an early indicator for current conditions and expectations over the next 6 months. Germany is considered the engine room of Europe and having released static GDP figures yesterday I would not be surprised if the release today was potentially negative.

There has been a general expectation that the GBP/EUR rate was going to fall to the 1.20’s before the referendum but since the Remain has taken a lead that may no longer be the case. If the UK do remain there is a belief that the rate could jump above 1.35 almost instantly. If you are looking to sell Euro’s it may be worth considering cutting your losses as it looks ever more likely that Sterling could be very strong in 29 days time.

If you would like to discuss anything with regards to my forecast or any further information with regards to currency, please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk

3 month high on GBPEUR Exchange Rates -Best Rate to buy Euros since early February (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have now broken through last week’s high and are now trading at the best exchange rate to buy Euros with Sterling since early February.

Last Thursday’s opinion poll as well as another one released today has put the Remain camp in the lead against the Leave campaign which has caused huge Sterling strength vs the Euro and created some excellent buying opportunities recently.

UK borrowing has come out higher than expected and typically this would have a weakening effect on Sterling exchange rates against all major currencies but it appears as though market sentiment is favouring Sterling at the moment.

The polls appear to be getting stronger in favour of the UK staying in the European Union but as the vote is democratic it will still be the public who will decide the course of action and therefore I expect to see continued volatility and big swings on Sterling exchange rates in the weeks ahead leading up to June 23rd.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned previously that the risks of leaving the EU could ‘possibly include a technical recession.’

As such an influential figure his opinion is well respected and will give further support to the Remain camp and again another reason for Sterling’s strength vs the Euro following on from comments made earlier today.

On Thursday UK GDP figures are due out on Thursday and any difference compared to the expectation of 0.4% could cause more movement for Sterling vs Euro.

Many of my clients whether buying or selling Euros are organising forward contracts which allow you to fix an exchange rate for the future and effectively removes the risk of where exchange rates may be in the weeks or months ahead.

This is extremely useful if you’re in the process of buying or selling property abroad.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to take advantage of these recent spikes then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

U.K economic data to impact Sterling exchange rates this week (Daniel Wright)

We have had a fairly quiet start to the week so far for Sterling exchange rates, however we may see things liven up as the week continues to progress.

It is important to remember that any news on the referendum may impact the value of the Pound rapidly and out of the blue, so if you have an exchange to carry out in the near future then it is key to have a proactive and sharp currency broker on your side for it.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we aim to give you the very best in market information to ensure you make the right decision to suit your needs.

Tomorrow we have Public Sector Net Borrowing figures due out at 09:30am and expectations are for the figure to increase which would suggest that the Government has slightly more ‘new debt’ than last month if predictions are correct. I actually feel that we may see a slightly more positive figure with the referendum in mind so Sterling may have a good day tomorrow.

We have nothing of great note on Wednesday and then will see growth figures on Thursday morning be the next piece of economic data that we are expecting to have an impact. 0.4% is the figure that analysts are expecting to see for economic growth and any deviation from this may lead to a volatile trading morning.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

GBP exchange rates open the week flat, will Sterling hold on to it’s recent gains? (Joseph Wright)

With the recent gains made by Sterling exchange rates many may have wondered over the weekend whether they’d missed the boat. Fortunately for those that didn’t take advantage last week, they still have the opportunity of selling their Pounds at surprisingly good levels considering next month the UK public will be voting on it’s political future.

Having hit a 3 month high last week, GBP/EUR is still trading above 1.2900 at the central level and personally I think there could be some short term support at that level as the pair bounced back up above 1.2900 after briefly dropping as low as 1.2893 earlier today. Expect the fears over Greece’s bad debt to help Sterling hold it’s ground although should we hear of a turn in the polls/bookies regarding the EU Referendum next month, I’ll expect GBP to spike downwards against all major currencies.

Earlier in the month GBP/USD, commonly know as cable, hit a 4 month high and since then once again Sterling is more or less holding on to those gains. I think anyone with an upcoming currency requirement involving selling GBP to buy USD should be well aware of how an Interest Rate hike from the Fed will effect the pair, and how likely that hike is likely to occur and when.

Sterling is likely to see weakness in the event of an Interest Rate hike in the US when compared with Sterling, and analysts have currently got an increase in the rate next month at 30% so we shouldn’t rule out those chances. Odd’s are at 60% for September so for GBP sellers, it may be in your best interest to begin organizing your US Dollar purchase sooner as opposed to later.

Major events which could affect GBP exchange rates and potentially erode Sterling’s recent gains consist of Tuesday’s Public Sector Net Borrowing for April, and UK GDP figures on Thursday. Both figures will be held under high scrutiny within the market place and expect big movements should either figure come out far from analysts expectations.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you have to make, and ensure you’re getting the best rates possible with high levels of client security, feel free to get in touch with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call on 01494 787 478 and ask reception for Joseph on the Sterling desk. 

Sterling exchange rates cool off after a very bullish week, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

After the week we’ve just had I’m expecting next week’s trading session to be very interesting for Sterling exchange rates, and hopefully by this time next week we’ll have more clarity as to which direction the Pound is moving.

In the meantime I believe those looking to sell GBP in order to purchase other major currencies such as US Dollars, Euro’s or Australian Dollars for example, have been presented with some surprisingly good entry levels, especially when we consider that the EU Referendum is just around the corner and that event is what’s been weighing on Sterling’s value for most of this year.

This week Sterling hit it’s strongest level against the Euro for 3 months, and this was mostly due to the UK bookies now claiming that there is a 70% likelihood of the UK remaining within the Eurozone.

This news has been well received by the marketplace as historically speaking, political uncertainty weighs on the value of the underlying currency, therefore the bookies and polls suggesting that the UK public has already made its decision has resulted in a strong Pound as investors and speculators become less tentative when buying Pounds (or buying financial asset’s denominated in Pounds).

Today, Sterling has weakening across the board as many would have expected. Having gained so much ground on it’s peer’s this week I felt that it was inevitable that Sterling exchange rates would cool off today, particularly this afternoon, as day traders and speculators alike take their profits which would then drive down the value of Sterling somewhat.

Next week I’m expecting Sterling to continue to ease off as I struggle to justify the likes of GBPEUR trading above 1.30 with such a historic vote around the corner, and I think anyone with a currency requirement involving selling Pounds should consider making that transfer sooner as opposed to later.

If you would like to discuss an upcoming currency exchange you have to make, feel free to contact me on 01494 787478, just ask reception for Joseph. I work for one of the UK’s longest standing specialist currency brokers. We can save clients thousands when compared with the high street banks and also offer a lot more than just award winning exchange rates and high levels of security. Next week see’s the release of some key data which could swing exchange rates so we can also discuss how these events could effect your exchange if you like. You can also contact me by email on jxw@currencies.co.uk 

Buying Euros? Rates Drop from Recent Highs (James Lovick)

The pound has seen excellent gains against both the Euro and the US dollar this week although levels are turning back once again which is to be expected in these markets with a UK referendum on EU membership just one month to go. Sterling had seen added benefit after the latest poll on Wednesday put the Remain camp some way in front as well as stronger wage growth numbers, something the Bank of England are very interested in.

The markets reacted with levels breaking above 1.30 for GBP EUR and over 1.46 for GBP USD. My view is that this is a short term spike which is similar to the spike seen a few weeks ago when US President Barack Obama visited Europe and made his view very clear that Britain should remain in the EU.

Rates are incredibly attractive all things considered for buying Euros and US dollars but once again we are seeing resistance at these higher levels. I struggle to see levels much higher for the pound in the current climate with so much more to inevitably be seen in this referendum. Economic data has been considerably softer of late including a much weaker manufacturing sector and steel industry which has been well publicised.

Considering the recent softening in the economy as shown in the recent GDP numbers which fell to 0.4% then my view is that data will continue to be softer as we approach 23rd June. Whilst the referendum may have some part to play in all of this, the recent slowdown may simply be case of the UK economy is adjusting to new pension changes as well as higher wage costs due to the introduction of the national living wage let alone the overall global economic slowdown.

The referendum does inevitably have a part to play so next week’s data will be important. UK GDP is released next Thursday and may see a slide lower from 0.4% to 0.3%. This would be in line with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecast and I feel there is likely to be a fall here.

This would be sterling negative and it would be most unlikely that the figure would come in higher than 0.4%. As such there is much greater risk for a weaker figure and so the risk is to the downside with sterling weakness much more likely to be expected next week.

Selling Euros:

For anyone selling Euros, rates are still historically attractive despite the recent movement this week. However there are likely to be some better selling opportunities around the corner. This week has certainly given sellers a serious panic with the sudden surge in the price of sterling but already things are settling down. Softer data next week from the housing sector and GDP numbers could start the fall in the price of the pound, yet again.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling or any other major currency and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Boost to buying Euro and Dollar rates for second consecutive day (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has now broken through several benchmarks on most major currencies, with buying Euro rates breaching 1.30, and GBP/AUD now well above 2.0 for the first time since February.

The Pound’s recovery has caught the eye of many potential buyers. GBP/EUR was almost 9 cents lower only a month ago, GBP/USD has now established itself north of 1.45, and GBP/AUD has gained near on 20 cents in a single month.

A combination of political and economic factors are the root cause for this sudden turnaround.

Economically speaking the UK has had a fantastic few days with all of the good news of the month seeming to come out within a relatively short period. Wages, unemployment, and most recently this morning retail sales figures have seen positive news eclipse some of the UK’s questionable growth data released at the start of the month.

Furthermore, some confident strides ahead for the remain camp have made some investors a little more confident about the outcome of the looming Referendum. But the mistakes in the polls during the May election haven’t been forgotten, and with the traditional margin of error being plus or minus 3%, there’s still not enough conviction for Sterling to breach much higher for the moment, which explains why the Pound’s rally tailed off this afternoon.

With no economic news of note out tomorrow and no releases on the polls until next week, this very gradual negative loss on buying rates for anyone holding Sterling will likely continue as profit taking after the big movements this week governs changes in buying rates for Euros and Dollars.

Unless the Remain camp gains a hefty lead the Pound is likely to be coming under further pressure as we edge closer to the vote itself. With debates and speeches lined up for the beginning of the month, it’s fair to say that the heavy campaign season hasn’t even begun. Anyone waiting to buy foreign currency, particularly after the opportunities gifted to many buyers over the last 7 trading days, has to have a very strong economic argument if they are expecting many further gains on the marketplace in the short-term.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement between now and Referendum should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to start a dialogue around a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your foreign currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and a brief discussion could save you thousands on your transfer. These current levels available today can also be fixed in place for any planned transfers in the future to completely avoid the risk of waiting for the exchange rates available to you later in the year when you wish to conduct your transfer.

Anyone considering buying Sterling with a foreign currency can also do the same, and I will explain how best to approach the coming weeks to ride the expected movements in your favour to their completion.

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