Category Archives: Sterling strength
After initial wobbles early this morning, sterling has consolidated its gains before the Easter break. Most UK news of late including retail figures and unemployment, has all been exceptionally good, allowing the pound to make headway against most of the majors. However the gains are being limited by the fact the Bank of England is still highly unlikely to adjust interest rates before the second quarter of 2015.
The UK markets will be closed tomorrow and on Monday, however many other countries will be open for business as usual so we could still see some movement although I suspect sterling will be reasonably well supported because of the recent jobs news. We have Australian next Tuesday evening so I am hoping we can break back into the 1.80 barrier for GBP AUD, and whilst European inflation figures recently were just about passable, I am hopeful that next week’s Markit PMI could trigger further weakness for the single currency.
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As we head to the long Easter weekend the pound has begun to show some signs of positivity, notably against the Euro and US dollar with rates at a near four year high against the greenback. Prior to this the pound had seen some volatile times against a host of currencies and in particular the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.
In fact earlier this week the pound was trading at its lowest level against the Australian Dollar since November last year having shifted over 7% from the highs of January. This makes a difference of 24k AUD in a little over three months on a £200k money exchange. Looking at other currencies and the market is also proving very volatile against the NZD having shifted over 5% since February and the ZAR with the pound being some 6% down on this year’s high of 18.81.
Since these lows the pound has shifted back towards 1.80 against the AUD following strong UK unemployment figures yesterday which are now below the 7% level sitting at 6.9% and the sentiment coming from the RBA minutes that maybe they are not as comfortable as originally suggested with the current value of the Australian Dollar. For me this pair is now likely to settle around the 1.80 range.
To finish off the working week the UK has little in the way of data releases with initial jobless claims from the US at 13:30 the major data of note. Should you need to get anything locked in before the Easter weekend then there is still time. Registration is free and carries no obligation and can be done on-line all in a matter of minutes. Contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike firstname.lastname@example.org
Sterling has pushed up today against the Euro creating the best rate to buy Euros for a few weeks. This is following on from some very positive next from the UK unemployment sector which saw a fall to 6.9% which is the best in years and below the original figure set out by the Bank of England as an indicator of when to increase interest rates. However, as unemployment has dropped over the last few months Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that unemployment will not be the prime reason to change interest rates.
However, any signs that the UK economy is on the rise is good for Pound as a whole and this is the reason why Sterling has shot up against the US Dollar testing 4 year highs and also why Sterling Euro exchange rates have been on the up today.
The unemployment figures were the best they’ve been for five years with 2.2 million people currently out of work. Average earnings have also picked up during the last three months and have outstripped inflation for the first time since 2010. Therefore, this is likely to promote consumer confidence which ultimately means more spending which in turn will drive UK economic growth.
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The Pound has had a really good morning against all major currencies this morning following much better than expected unemployment figures for the U.K and also news that after six long years wage growth has now overtaken inflation.
Both of these factors have led to a spike in the market for Sterling which is great news for anyone looking to buy foreign currency in the near future.
If you are in the process of buying a property overseas then your dream home abroad has indeed just become a little cheaper for you!
We have some European inflation data out shortly and then this afternoon we have the Canadian interest rate decision and statement so keep a keen eye on exchange rates between 3-4pm this afternoon.
Personally I think the Pound has the potential now to kick on once again as long as we see this positive trend continue in terms of economic data.
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It’s been a quiet day for the Pound on the currency markets, with little movement against both the EUR and USD. GBP/EUR rates continue to float around 1.21 on the exchange and the markets seem to be waiting for guidance before making their next decisive move. With concerns over France’s economic health and the very real threat of deflation hanging over the region, you can make a very good case that Sterling is more likely to find further market support from its current position than the EUR.
However, there is a is a case to be argued that the EUR, when considering its recent history against GBP, has far more scope for improvement than the Pound. If the negative issues raised earlier in this post can be resolved then you do feel the EUR could go on a run and break back through 1.20 for a sustained period.
Personally I feel GBP will continue to be well supported in the market, in line with the improvements we are seeing in the UK economy. Any move towards 1.25 against the EUR is likely to find market resistance but it will be difficult for the EUR to make a decisive move under 1.20, based on the current market conditions.
We have seen a positive spike during Tuesdays trading against both the AUD and NZD, following loses against both currencies last week. With China’s economy starting to show signs of improvement and their demand for Australia’s raw materials once again starting to increase, we may find the AUD can gather market support over the coming weeks and help to control Sterling’s recent gains.
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Next week we have a fairly busy start with key inflation data on Tuesday morning for the U.K followed by unemployment figures on Wednesday, keep checking back here for further information on how this affects the strength of the Pound.
Sterling was well supported during the early part of the trading week, following the release of better than expected UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production data. These positive figures helped to push GBP/EUR levels through 1.21 on the exchange and this good feeling was reinforced by the NIESR’s prediction that UK GDP would grow at 0.9% for the first three months of this year, the fastest pace at which our economy has grown since 2010.
Thursday was also an important date in the diary as we had the latest BoE interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, both of which stayed at their current levels. A monthly report by the ECB seemed to help ease pressure on the EUR and rates have dipped back under 1.21 as we move towards the end of the trading week.
GBP/AUD rates have dipped below 1.80 on the exchange, as the AUD continues to move away from its four year low against GBP. An announcement this week that Australia and Japan have agreed a trade deal is also likely to reinforce this positive feeling. The deal between Australia and Japan has been in negotiation for seven years and is seen as key to future trade between the two economies. The agreement in place will lower tariffs on key imports and it is the first time Japan have negotiated such an agreement with another major economy.
It’s been well documented that the AUD has found life tough going due to a slowdown in China’s demand for their raw materials and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was keen to see the AUD lose value, in order to help boost exports. Following the market loses witnessed against Sterling over the past twelve months the RBA recently stated that they would not be cutting their base interest rate further and this seems to have steadied the ship.
It now seems the markets have found a level in which GBP/AUD rates seem to be fluctuating and if GBP/AUD rates did spike above 1.80 again I would be very tempted to consider my position.
If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org.