Pound Sterling Forecast

Well, just when Friday was looking kind of quiet, Germany have lost their president… This suggests to me that as we have been saying for a very long time on here there is much, much more to this European crisis than is being let out of the bag.

I think the Euro Zone is in complete crisis and it is going to take heroic economic performance to resolve it, political instability does effect a currency and this indeed will not help the Euro and investor confidence.

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

Since the turn of the year the pound has constantly weakened against the Aussie Dollar. With Australia pretty much recession proof compared to the ongoing issues in the UK the pound has weakened to a 27 year low against AUD.

Overnight the pound has finally seen a small gain of 0.7% against the Aussie due to pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its interest rates. This week the markets were expecting the RBA to cut its interest rates down to 4% and when they did not the AUD strengthened further.

Global events in Europe, China & the US has a massive effect on how the Australian Dollar performs. Investor sentiment can mean that the purchase or sell off of Aussies can move the rates quickly and vigorously in either direction. After all it is the investors risk currency of choice.

If you require buying or selling the Aussie Dollar to buy any major currency then you must keep a close eye on Greece and China. The more bad news that comes out of either economy and we should see Aussie weakness. This however is not set in stone. Australia’s biggest exports are to China and events in Europe help investors decide to increase or decrease their risk.

With current levels up at 1.4792 against the pound I can see a range bound of 1.46 up to a high of 1.50 over the next week. If you are buying Aussie Dollars with the rates of exchange so low you must make sure that you get the best return on your funds.

Here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com we will do everything we can to offer you our expert opinion on all things currency and challenge you to see if we can make you a saving on your exchange. Please contact me bma@currencies.co.uk to compare our rates with your high street bank.

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someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

As the old saying goes if you put your head above the parapet, prepare to be shot! Against my predictions we have seen further QE but the pound has gained about half a cent from today’s earlier lows. This is more than likely due to the fact this was expected and it wasnt perhaps as bad as the possible £75bn of asset purchases some expected. I did point out however the status quo could lead to sterling strength and this is what has happened..

Utilising QE will help the UK’s slow road to recovery to remain loosely on track and should mean that if we do enter any recession this year it should not be too bad. The Eurozone as we know is one of the biggest threats to not just the UK’s recovery but also the global recovery. This batch of QE should support the pound for what may still be a very challenging year ahead due to overseas issues.

Always expect the unexpected on the markets. We have had QE but the pound is currently trading at the high of the day against most currencies!

If you would like any further information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Following on from Jonathan’s post and to show just how undecided even the most ‘in the know’ people are, I personally feel we will see QE at 12:00 and some Sterling weakness….. Who will come out on top with this one, myself or Jonathan?????

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… djw@currencies.co.uk

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Good afternoon all, there are once again growing rumours that the SNB may be close to devaluing the CHF once again as it has been extremely close to their 1.20 benchmark against the Euro of late.

Last time the SNB did theis the Swiss Franc lost around 10 cents against Sterling in about an hour and has not recovered back since, so those of you earning your wages in CHF may wish to consider various options inclusive of a forward contract to lock in your rate of exchange for the coming year just in case this does happen.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Good Afternoon,

The pound witnessed some excellent gains against the Euro today spiking at 1.2098 before dipping back down to 1.2054 at time of writing.

The main reason for the movement is mainly due to events in Greece. It seems that time is running out on Greece to implement their austerity measures and Greek politicians are arguing as to how to cut their public sector GDP by around 3 billion Euros. The politicians need to sign this off otherwise they will not receive the 130 billion Euro bailout package
that is due.

France & Germany have come out with very hard comments pressuring financially troubled Greece to quickly complete deals to cut its debt and impose more unpopular austerity measures.

For clients that need to buy or sell Euros now is a very tricky time. With the amount of uncertainty out there at the moment I would suggest if you are buying Euros to capitalise on the uncertainty and achieve some of the best levels we have seen for a year or so.

Today’s movement of nearly a cent from high to low goes to show that even the markets don’t know what is around the corner and if there is a resolution for Greece soon (In my opinion there will be) you should act quickly as the rate can drop very quickly once the pound has spiked.

With the interest rate decision out on Thursday if the dreaded QE does happen then sterling could easily dip below 1.20 once more. It was only a few days ago that sterling exchange rates hit a low of 1.1899. Don’t get caught out holding out for a little bit more to get your fingers burnt. Please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can discuss your requirement and the options that are available to you.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have
saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting
up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can
also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions you may have.

I look forward to speaking with you.

The pound has continued its mixed performance according to on going international sentiments. I think it is fair to say that the poor state of the UK and its finances is hampering any kind of major comeback. On the data front the key market  mover will be whether or not we see QE this Thursday, but there is also a host of other data including Manufacturing and Industrial Production data as well as Trade Balance data. House price data this morning showed a small 0.6% increase in the last month according to Halifax, although they are down 1.8% on last year. Last weeks PMI data was generally positive but I think the underlying sentiments show that the UK is suffering. The recent run of not so bad data may mean any further QE is on the backburner for the time being however.

Against the Euro the pound is still touching the excellent highs seen for most of the year. Aside from the above data the key news story will surely be the outcome over Greece. I feel focus will be on not only Thursday’s QE decision but also whether or not the ECB cut rates on Thursday. There is definitely the chance of some big movements around this time as investors second guess the outcomes. It is worth noting that GBPEUR has been range bound at 1.19-1.2150 in the last month which is not massive when you consider the continued pressures on both currencies. We may well see the rate break out of this range this week depending on the outcomes of the above events.

Whichever way the market moves we can help secure preferential and commercial rates of exchange. For a full discussion of all the events affecting your trades please feel free to contact me direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk