Category Archives: Sterling strength

GBP’s value expected to fall

Sterling’s values have been rather changeable this week with a movement of over 1.5% so far. European news has really taken the lead at the beginning of the week and the Uk is set to finish it. Earlier today UK RETAIL figures were released and as expected published a concerning fall in the amount of shopping which took place in September. Retail is a huge part of the UK economy and its recovery as it is said to be a consumer based recover.  This fall was put down to the warmer weather stopping the annual purchase of winter clothes in the shops.  Tomorrow is another key day for Sterling with UK GDP figures being released in the morning. Data from the UK this month has missed expectations on nearly every area as the uncertainty in Scotland last year impacted the market and the GDP figures tomorrow are expected to be no different. Levels are expected to fall steeply which could have a big impact on the value of Sterling and any currency transfer that YOU may have to do.  It’s my personal view that levels currently will be the top end of the range expected for the rest of the week and the month of October so if you have a currency transfer to make you may wish to move in the near future to avoid any disappointment.

Longer term and into next month I do think there is some optimism as economic data in the UK should improve. There are no guarantees however and with a building concern about the health of Europe and Germans situation I would remain wary. Germany is expected to be close to a recession this quarter as trade with Russia impacts their economic situation. (Was it not Russia who was the target not Europe with these sanctions?)  These is actually having an impact on the value of the pound as investment has fallen this month. This has been down to the global view that the UK is so dependent on the health of the single currency. Lots of topics to watch going forward certainly.

If you would like more information on any of the information above and how this could impact your situation make sure to contact us or myself directly on hse@currencies.co.uk

Look forward to hearing from you and happy trading!

GBP Dips Following Poor UK Retail Sales Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has dipped during Thursday morning’s trading following the release of the latest UK Retail Sales figures. With figures dropping in September by 0.3%, it is another indication that all is not well with the UK economy and it now seems as if our recovery is stagnating. With inflation falling to a five year low recently and on-going concerns over the knock effect the Eurozone slowdown is having on the UK economy, we may find that GBP struggles to make any further sustained inroads against the EUR.

Tomorrow is likely to be a key date for investors, as we have the latest set of UK Gross Domestic Product figures. A country’s GDP figure gives investors a key insight into the overall performance of that particular economy and with UK growth expected to fall in Q3 from 0.9% to 0.7%, we may find that the Pound continues to come under pressure as we head into the weekend.

GBP/USD rates dipped again during yesterday’s trading with a sustained move under 1.60 now looking likely in the short-term. The USD was boosted by better than expected US inflation data released yesterday and with question marks now hanging over the UK economic recovery, I do feel as if the USD is likely to gain further market support. Cable exchange rates have traded above 1.60 for so long that a correction is well overdue in my opinion and I wouldn’t be surprised to the USD put pressure back on 1.55 by Christmas.

Following the devastating events in Canada over the past days, which have reminded the world of the dangers we still face by terrorism, the focus has shifted away from their economy. RBC Governor Poloz cancelled a speech last night, as the country came to grips with the tragedy.

Looking at any knock on effects for their currency and GBP/CAD rates dipped during yesterday’s trading, despite the fact the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) interest decision came out as expected, with the central bank keeping their base interest rate on hold at 1%. Whilst this was widely anticipated their subsequent monetary policy statement indicated the Canadian economy was seeing ‘renewed vigour’ in consumer spending and the real estate market since July.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with you current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.

Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.

Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Will it be a busy and positive end to the week for the pound?

Early indications suggest yes! The pound has clearly been the favourite currency of 2014 as the UK leaves its counterparts behind with solid economic growth and economic policies all pointing towards raising interest rates. For me this trend is not finished and whilst the pound has clearly come slightly unstuck this October (the month economic realities often hit home, remember the Wall St crash?) longer term sterling really should remain the investors choice.

Risks remain from the Eurozone slowdown (40% of the UK’s overseas trade is with the Eurozone) and a general deterioration in the global economic outlook but on balance the UK is benefiting from improved domestic demand and whilst it may be that sterling does dip a little more as interest rate expectations are pushed back, I still believe the UK will raise interest rates ahead of the United States. I therefore view any dip in sterling as a buying opportunity well worth capitalising on.

Tomorrow’s Retail figures will be a big indicator as to whether or not the this domestic demand is sustainable and Friday’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will again be very indicative of just exactly how the UK is faring, I would personally expect sterling to fall tomorrow but rise Friday. If you are considering an upcoming exchange why not speak with me to learn a little more about the forecast?

What exactly should I do? I cannot unfortunately tell you exactly what to do or when to buy the currency, no one can! I can however keep an eye on the rates for you and highlight improvements and upcoming events which will affect the exchange. The uncertainty of the foreign exchange market means making firm decisions is impossible and it is only by speaking with a true specialist you can fully understand what may happen down the line.

For more information please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Gains against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Euro exchange rates have picked up today in advance of tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes. In recent months 2 of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee have voted for a rate rise but with CPI data out recently showing a fall to 1.2% this has put off a rate hike into the future.

However, if the minutes do show another vote of 7-2 we could see Sterling strength as it goes to show that there is some appetite for a rate hike for the UK at some stage.

It was confirmed this morning that Public Sector Net Borrowing for the UK has increased to £11.8bn in September an increase of £1.6bn compared to twelve months before.

Typically if borrowing is on the rise it is not that good news for the UK but I think the currency market is seeing a rise in investor confidence for Sterling.

UK Retail Sales are due on Thursday at 930am and expectations are for 2.8%. Anything higher could see Sterling rally against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a  free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

Sterling Sees Slight Rally Versus The Euro Today (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling has rallied back against the Euro this morning despite UK public borrowing increasing again.  10 year bond yields showed an improvement suggesting there is demand and we have the Bank of England Minutes tomorrow morning.  Indeed with US inflation and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision tomorrow if could be quite a busy day for currency transfers to North America, and have a big impact on global confidence.

I can’t see any additional members of the BofE MPC voting to join the two dissenting members to raise interest rates in the UK – if anything UK data has tailed off over the last month and with the Chief Economist of the Bank of England suggesting rates would go up in the middle of next year, sterling has been held back recently.  A surprise vote to hike could really provide a shot in the arm for the pound, however I think this is unlikely – sterling in my view is going to be reliant on more problems in Europe to see a big increase in the short term versus the single currency.

If you need to make a currency transfer, and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

UK Interest Rates to remain low (Tom Holian)

Sterling has fallen recently off the back of a lot of uncertainty within global markets as fears increase of slowing global growth, the impacts of Ebola and a UK interest rate hike being pushed back.

Sterling vs Euro ended the week above 1.26 as the Eurozone has also had its fair share of problems including Germany announcing big problems with their own growth statistics.

On Friday the chief economist at the Bank of England Andrew Haldane has suggested that interest rates are likely to remain low for ‘some time’ as fears increase over the disparity between wage inflation and growth. However, the good news is that he did say growth is set to be the fastest of any major economy this year which helped to boost Sterling against the Dollar and Euro.

The big problem for the Eurozone continues to be the worries about inflation. Currently the figure is at just 0.3% which means it will be difficult for growth on the continent. The ECB has also acted twice in the last two months firstly with a rate cut in September and more monetary easing this month. Suggestions are that this could carry on next month which is likely to cause Euro weakness against both the Pound and US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling news

  • October was always going to be a difficult month for the pound with economic news reflecting September’s Scottish Referendum which sapped business and consumer confidence. This week the dollar climbed to a one year high against the pound and the euro too recently hit a one month high against sterling as September’s Inflation data caused the pound to slide. This is I believe presenting a good short term opportunity to sell euros and dollars for the pound, if you have such a requirement please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy to help you maximise your exchange rate.
  • Ebola! The UK currently only has 28 beds for specifically treating Ebola infected patients. Were the virus to spread rapidly throughout the UK or Europe, public services would be under immense pressure and financial markets would become very volatile. The UK’s Chief Medical Officer has stated current protection for the UK is sufficient but with £125m pledged so far to fight the situation in Sierra Leone alone, the unknown cost and impact of the virus on the currency markets should not be underestimated. If you have an important transfer in the future it is always wise to consider every angle, please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan to keep up to date.
  • If the Ebola crisis really picks up I would expect the USD to strengthen and this could be very beneficial for anyone selling USD for the pound. The Euro might weaken in such a scenario and higher yielders like the Aussie and CAD might weaken too. For the latest news and information please contact me  on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR levels continue to fall steeply – when to trade?

GBPEUR levels have been very volatile over the last few weeks. In fact we have seen them have their most volatile period since the crash in 2008 this month with levels swinging over a cent a day and an overall movement between the high and the low of over 4 cents. This has made a huge difference to the costs of purchased anything from the single currency. There has been a number of topics and stories released which has started this negative trend. This included interest rates change being pushed back, IMF concerns about the UK’s growth next year, the highlight of risk being linked with Euro and Euros general demise and uncertainty. This created the fall initially but thereafter so many traders got involved in the swing it changed sentiment in the market that pushed levels down this week too. It seems there is a growing concern about the future globally as stock markets have fallen significantly, it was on Wednesday when we saw the largest day drop in European stock of over 6 years.

GBPEUR levels have dropped nearly every day this week with the only exception being yesterday when inflation date from Europe gave only some light relief for anyone buying the single currency.

Moving forward I would remain wary and I do think there is a big chance this negative trend will continue with levels ending the month lower than where we are today.  Economic data for the UK, reporting on September, continues to be negative due to the uncertainty last month with the Scottish vote. Plus with concerns building about the future for the single currency, Germany falling into a recession due to sanctions with Russia and Germany stopping QE, I would be concerned if I was a GBPEUR buyer.

If I was a GBPEUR trader this month I would definitely be putting myself into a position to move very quickly and I would probably look at limiting my exposure.  If I was a EURGBP trader I would also want to be ready to go and to take advantage of the movement in your direction.

If you would like more information about the potential timing of your transfer, and the stories to watch out for please feel free to contact myself directly. My email address here is hse@currencies.co.uk and I will get back to you personally, my name is Steve Eakins.

Alternatively if you would like to utilise the tools we have access to including RATE ALERTS and SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS please feel free to get in contact in the same way.

Have a good weekend.

Steve

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