Category Archives: Sterling strength
Pound Sterling exchange rates – Once again Thursday is the day that may be key (Daniel Wright)
Sterling exchange rates have been reasonably static lately against the major currencies however tomorrow has the potential to be quite a market mover.
We have Australian unemployment figures out overnight tonight followed by Industrial and manufacturing production figures for the U.K tomorrow at 09:30am. The unemployment figures have the potential to shift rates against the Australian Dollar and the production figures may affect the Pound against all majors.
Most importantly we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and any further news on more Quantitative Easing will be extremely key. For those of you that have follwed the market over the past few years it seems that every time Sterling is performing well and heading into the right direction the Government or the Bank of England step in and do something to knock it back down again so you must be aware this is the perfect time for them to do so.
Should tomorrow pass without any surprises I think the Pound may be set for another positive month now that the potential recession is out of the way and focus has turned to other troubled economies hopefully Sterling will become a currency of choice once again.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer involving buying or selling the Pound then feel free to contact me directly as I can assist you with not only getting the very best exchange rate but also a full round service of making the transaction as smooth as possible. If this sounds of interest then please email me directly djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you.
What will happen next week on sterling exchange rates?
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. jmw@currencies.co.uk
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
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Pound Sterling exchange rates against the Euro – Will we see an interest rate cut today? What effect will it have? (Daniel Wright)
Today is a big day for Europe as we may potentially see an interest rate cut which could lead to further weakness for the Euro.
Exchange rates for the pound against the Euro have remained fairly steady since the big push up following the issue in Cyprus however today has the potential to move rates onwards and upwards once more.
Of course, with so much speculation that this is going to happen there is a huge risk that if we do not see a cut in rates then we may see the Euro gain a little strength quite rapidly as the markets correct themselves – If you have a pending transfer to carry out involving buying or selling the Euro then it is key that you are ready to act fast.
If you would like me to get in touch personally following the decision then feel free to email me djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number for me to call you on.
We also have some construction figures for the U.K this morning which could give a nod to how the second quarter started for the U.K in 2013 -This could affect the Pound against all major currencies – We are currently at an 11 week high to buy the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar which does lead to a great temptation to buy these particular currencies in case we see nthe rates slip back down again.
Personally I think Sterling confidence is up and the Pound may well start to creep in the right direction as I have been saying since the start of this year, however you must also be aware that the pattern tends to be that as soon as Sterling looks like it is finally about to push on something comes out to knock it straight back down again.
If you want to achieve the very best exchange rates, or even to ask me if the rate you are being offered is good before you accept it then feel free to get in touch with me directly – You can contact me by email djw@currencies.co.uk or call me directly on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours, please ask for Daniel Wright.
A fairly quiet week for GBP but what else has the potential to move the markets? (Alistair Ryan)
After a busy week last week for Sterling this week seems as though it is going to be a lot quieter. Last week we saw UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures come out at 0.3%, meaning that the UK avoided going in to another recession and providing a spike for Sterling against most major currencies. There is not a lot of data out for the UK this week, manufacturing data came out better than expected this morning and we saw a small spike for the pound but apart from this there doesn’t seem to be much going on in the UK.
In my opinion there are two data releases this week that have the potential to rock the markets. First up is the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision which will be released at 12:45pm tomorrow afternoon. There is a lot of speculation at present that the ECB are going to cut interest rates to improve their declining inflation. Inflation figures for the Eurozone were released yesterday showing a 0.5% decline. Generally an interest rate cut will increase public spending, in turn boosting growth and inflation. If the ECB chooses to cut their rates then I can see a strong bout of euro weakness against most major currencies, however with so much uncertainty still surrounding the Eurozone I can’t see this holding for very long.
I think that the other major data release this week could be US Non-farm payroll data out at 1:30pm on Friday. This always has the potential to change month by month and has a reputation for moving the markets significantly after its release. It is expected that the figure will be announced at 150,000 but anything other than the expected could cause some significant USD volatility.
We have a number of different contract options available that can help you make the most of spikes in the market, whether they are moving for or against you. If you would like to speak with one of our professional, friendly currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR rates wobble but will an interest rate change GBPEUR forecasts (STEVE EAKINS)
Following the UK avoiding a recession late last week rates spiked up to the highest seen since the end of January. By definition a SPIKE does not last for long and these levels were slowly taken away through Monday and Tuesday trading. Many clients managed to benefit of these spikes following their registration to the SPIKE NOTIFICATION service here. (If this is of interest simply send your contact and transfer details to hse@currencies.co.uk)
But what next for GBPEUR rates of exchange?
Well the next focus point is the European interest rate decision which is released on Thursday afternoon. There is a view that rates may be lowered following pressure from countries trying to balance their debt burdens, Germany’s economy becoming sluggish and inflation falling across the single currency. There are two views in the market as to what would happen if they were cut from the current record low of 0.75% to 0.5%. Firstly traditionally when an interest rate is cut drops investors’ appetite so there is less demand and therefore weakens that currency. The second is that as in this case the suggested drop is so small, it could be seen as a proactive move and actually drive investment making the euro more expensive to buy.
I think the latter is more probably personally, however I am also leaning towards them not actually lowering rates this week. Either way the release will be key for ANYONE with a currency transfer to make as the Governor of the European Central Bank will be taking questions on the matter driving rates over the press conference so make sure you are close to a computer or have a broker actively keeping an eye on your situation as the news breaks. To put this event into contents it could move the markets by upwards of 1.5 cents adding £1,700 onto a €150,000 purchase.
If you would like to keep up to date on the event or to talk through how this could affect your currency exposure, speak to the experts. Feel free to get in contact with myself or the team here. My name is Steve Eakins and I am one of the elite traders here. Call on the normal number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
U.K GDP figures better than expected!
Wow, what a busy day on the markets and indeed on our trading floor following much better than expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures released for the U.K.
The Pound has gained against all major currencies as figures released were much better than expected coming out at 0.3% growth instead of the expected 0.1%.
This has provided a great buying opportunity for anyone looking to buy foreign currency – If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out then feel free to call me immediately djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your requirement and a number for me to call you back on. We specialise in getting the very best rates of exchange for bank to bank transfers so it is worth sending a quick email over for a comparison against your bank or current provider, we may save you hundreds if not thousands.
Why not join our mailing list too, I keep clients fully up to date with market movements and offer an extremely proactive service ensuring you can get on with your busy day without having to worry about what is happening on the market – we do that for you.
Once again, djw@currencies.co.uk is where you can make an enquiry – I look forward to hearing from you.
Crunch time for the UK, will recession be avoided? Exchange rate forecasts (Mike Vaughan)
As my colleagues post highlights opinion in the office is entirely divided. The majority of traders believe a 0.1% figure will be released and this in turn should lend support to sterling exchange rates as a result. I for one have predicted this and hope for a better day pushing GBP/EUR above 1.18, GBP/USD towards 1.54 and GBP/AUD pushing closer to 1.50 – a trigger point for many AUD buyers.
Of course the decision will be a close one and many of those with an interest in the money markets will be keeping a very close eye on the 09:30 release. The office has a range of predictions from 0.1% to – 0.2%. To avoid recession we need to see 0% or better, something that may give the economy a much needed boost. Of late data in the UK has been somewhat better with the only exception retail sales, but these have been affected by unseasonably poor weather, something you cannot legislate for. Today could prove incredibly volatile, should you wish to remove this uncertainty then get in touch early on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Although UK GDP data is likely to dominate today’s trading, other data to watch out for will include the following:
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 – expecting to show a slight decrease possibly lending support to the US dollar this afternoon.
Overnight we have the interest rate decision from Japan – expected to stay on hold at 0.1% and should cause little movement for GBP/JPY but watch out for the Bank of Japans monetary statement that will follow. This will outline the policies the BofJ will have in store and could have an impact on riskier currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR as the JPY is often used in conjunction with these currencies through he use of a carry trade. This is when investors borrow in a low yielding currency i.e. JPY and look for higher grossing currencies such as AUD, NZD and ZAR. It is a risky trade as the exchange rate movement can remove any gains from the higher yield offered and as a result economic sentiment from Japan could adversely affect the riskier currencies. I for one feel further opportunities will be seen for buyers of the AUD, NZD and ZAR in the coming few days and weeks.
To finish off the week watch out for annualised US GDP at 13:30 tomorrow. Expected to show a strong improvement which should drive cable rates back towards 1.51/52 to finish off the working week.
Should you have an upcoming trade to arrange and you would like to discuss the market in more detail and how we can help you achieve a competitive commercial rate of exchange then please get in touch. We are here to help. Please email with your particular currency requirement and I will happily get in contact to discuss your options to help you maximise your trade. Email mgv@currencies.co.uk
Our trading floor predictions for tomorrow – GDP figures and the high/low against the Euro (Daniel Wright)
I thought it may be interesting to quiz a group of traders on our trading floor regarding their thoughts on what we may see tomorrow for the U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures and where this may put rates during the day against the Euro.
The general feeling appeared to be growth for the U.K – Only just however, below below are the predictions of the traders we polled – if you fancy making your own prediction then email it to me
djw@currencies.co.uk why not see if you can beat the traders, we may even give away a prize if anyone is spot on!
Personally I feel we may see 0.1% growth as expected just about avoiding recession and that the market will creep up a little but will not absolutely rocket as many people do already expect the U.K to just about tiptoe around the R word.
If we are technically back in a recession you would imagine the Pound may drop considerably so it is key to have protection in place if you are close to budget on your overseas purchase – You can place a stop loss order (setting yourself a worst case scenario to be bought out automatically) or book some of your funds on a forward contract (booking a rate for a date in advance for a small deposit) Email me directly if you want a full explanation on these free contract types or just want assistance and the best exchange rates on any currency transfers. Catch me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your requirements and a number to call you back on and I will be more than happy to help.
Our predictions – Just goes to show how close this is!
| Dealer | GDP | HIGH/LOW |
| JMW | -0.30% | 1.1684 |
| SPE | 0.40% | 1.218 |
| CAB | 0.20% | 1.195 |
| ATR | 0% | 1.1889 |
| THE | -0.10% | 1.1862 |
| MGV | 0.10% | 1.185 |
| JLL | 0.10% | 1.184 |
| CMG | 0.20% | 1.1837 |
| HJR | 0.10% | 1.1811 |
| BMA | 0.10% | 1.1786 |
| AJB | 0.10% | 1.1765 |
| MTV | 0.10% | 1.1631 |
| ASP | -0.10% | 1.1625 |
| TRH | -0.10% | 1.158 |
| PFH | -0.20% | 1.154 |
| DJW | 0.10% | 1.182 |
| HSE | 0.10% | 1.178 |
How will tomorrow pan out? Email me your prediction djw@currencies.co.uk
Sterling strength across the board! Will it last until Thursday? (Jonathan Watson)
Sterling is finding better support against most currencies as a positive GDP figure is expected on Thursday. This is of course good news or bad news depending on what you need to do! A positive figure will not in my opinion be enough for sterling to shake the blues but, it may be enough to provide anyone hanging on for dear life with a little sweetener in their price!
The pound has been suffering this year and it is likely this pressure will remain. Economically the UK is in a mess! What has improved lately is the economic conditions in the US which will help UK businesses. Europe on the other hand is on the cusp of worse troubles and with less orders for UK businesses as a result, sustained economic growth from business in the months and years ahead will be difficult. You have been warned!
I suggest therefore if you are considering moving on a currency transaction you pay particular attention to what happens this Thursday. Earlier in the year I wrote about the three key issues to beware of on the pound this year. You can read the post here. The three issues were the EU referendum, the triple A rating and the triple dip recession. Two of those topics have come true, in two days time we will find the answer to the third. The pound is absolutely on the edge!
Expectations are swaying daily but the general consensus seems to be we have narrowly avoided the dip. Such data is notoriously difficult to predict and as such I expect the pound to be very volatile in the coming 48 hours. Do not mistake the UK avoiding the triple dip for proof of a return to the rates we saw last year or earlier this year. The outlook remains negative and this is why I feel anyone selling sterling for another currency should really take stock now!
If you have an exchange to consider in the next couple of weeks Thursday’s data is very much worth being aware of. Our proactive personal service aims to ensure our clients get the best information relevant to their requirements. We are currency specialists with many years experience assisting and guiding both private and corporate clients through their transfers. We offer an unbeatable rate of exchange and it is very rare any of us would be beaten on price by another company or the banks.
If you would like to check your price or learn more about how it all works please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly. We can quickly speak over the phone and I can explain exactly how it works and offer a quick assessment on your position.
My email address is jmw@currencies.co. uk and I look forward to hearing from you!
Anticipation Builds Ahead of Key Date for UK Economy (Matthew Vassallo)
Thursday should be a key fixture in the diary of anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, as this is when the latest set of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be released. These will determine whether the UK economy has fallen back into official recession and whilst these figures could well be revised in the coming months, the initial market reaction will most likely mirror the result.
Personally I cannot see GBP gaining much momentum even if we do avoid recession, although there will be an element of market confidence returning to the Pound and it should stabilize. If we do in fact find ourselves back in a recession then the Pound will struggle to make any serious inroads against the major currencies and provided the Eurozone doesn’t throw up any nasty surprises (something which sounds unlikely given the recent history), then we are likely to see Sterling move back towards 1.14.
The EUR has tried to strengthen recently amid this on-going negativity but is constantly hampered by its own economic problems, which are prevalent and deep rooted throughout the Eurozone economy. It is almost a guarantee that we will hear of further unrest, whether it be in Cyprus or one of the larger nations such as Spain, France or Italy (just take note of the on-going political debacle and lack of a cohesive government). All of these nations have the ability to spark a further financial crisis should their economies collapse and unfortunately at times the Eurozone seems as if it is held together by nothing more than empty promises and increasingly harsh austerity measures.
GBP/USD rates have levelled out slightly recently although the USD continues to hold firm against the Pound, despite a small fight back from GBP recently. Despite the recent worse than expected non farms payroll data, the US economy does seem to be moving in the right direction and it is likely that we will see continued USD strength throughout Q2 of this year. I feel GBP will struggle to break back through 1.55 anytime soon, although a move back under 1.50 is now unlikely based on historical data.
The NZD continues to look strong against GBP with rates hovering around 1.80 for some time now. Many clients looking to purchase NZD will more than likely have been holding out for a move back towards 1.90, or maybe even 2 but personally I feel even 1.90 may be an unrealistic target, especially in the short to medium-term.
With the UK on the verge of a further recession and the NZD buoyed by a strong AUD and strong exports, it is likely we will see GBP/NZD range bound between 1.78-1.85 over the coming weeks.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.
