Category Archives: Sterling strength

Economic data out this week to impact your currency exchange (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost a Happy New Year to all of our regular readers along with those visiting the site for the first time!

We have had a slow start to the year for Sterling exchange rates, very much like the past few weeks where the Pound has dropped off a little against most majors but there is plenty for the market to get its teeth into this week that may turn that trend around.

Tomorrow morning we have PMI Construction data for the U.K for December, and with the weather in December being considerably better than that of last year I would not be surprised to see a slight improvement year on year.

Later tomorrow evening we also have the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision. This can impact all major currencies as any comments on future interest rate changes may lead to a great deal of money moving around the world.

on Thursday morning we have Markit services PMI for the U.K in December. With the services sector being responsible for a large part of the growth figures in the U.K this can also be extremely important and expectations are for a slight drop off from the previous month, however I would not be surprised to see something a little more favourable in what may be a good week for Sterling exchange rates.

Finally on Friday we have another fairly bit data release over in the U.S in the form of Non-Farm Payroll data. Non-Farm data is the number of people in Non-agricultural employment (due to this being seasonal) and can have a huge impact on global attitude to risk.

Predictions for this data release can be way out so the market may price in one result yet the release can be quite a bit different so if you have the requirement to move any currency anywhere in the world then it is worth keeping your eye on the market at 13:30pm on Friday afternoon.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only pride ourselves on providing regular and non-biased market information but we all work for one of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the U.K too.

If you have a currency requirement either now or in the coming months and you would like to maximise your exchange rate then we can also help with that too.

Feel free to contact me personally with  brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you. We deal with bank to bank exchanges ranging from smaller sums up to multi-million Pound transactions, unfortunately we cannot assist with travel money.

All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you at the earliest possibility.

 

What to expect for sterling exchange rates early 2017 (Dayle Littlejohn)

What you need to know about Brexit and the impact of Brexit on exchange rates

Throughout 2016 ‘Brexit’ was the main talking point for sterling exchange rates and I expect this trend to continue for at least the next two quarters.

When the UK public voted out of the European Union the consensus was that the UK would also be leaving the single market.

However the High Court ruled UK Prime Minister Theresa May does not have the power to invoke Article50 and therefore leave the single market.

The Prime Minister disagreed with the High Court ruling and last month took her case to the Supreme Court in hope that the decision will be overturned. The verdict is set to be released some point this month.

It’s important to realise Brexit is complex, however if you are buying or selling pounds in the upcoming months we have seen trends over the last 7 months that should help your decision making.

When the UK voted out of the EU in June and as a country we were under the impression we would exit the single market GBPEUR and GBPUSD plummeted to lows of 1.10 and 1.2190.

As soon as the High Court ruled that an exit from the single market will occur once Theresa May has approval from Government (very unlikely this would materialise) GBPEUR and GBPUSD increased to highs of 1.2015 and 1.2750.

Looking ahead to the Supreme Court decision this month, I believe there are two outcomes to exchange rates once we hear the verdict.

If the Supreme Court rule in favour of the High Court an exit from the single market becomes unlikely and therefore the pound makes gains against all of the major currencies.

If the Supreme Court overturn the High Court an exit from the single market could occur as early as March and therefore the pound plummets to lows we saw only 3 months ago.

How can I help you?

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients rates of exchange that they won’t be able to achieve by using their own bank.

Property purchases and sales are my area of expertise, therefore if you need to purchase a foreign currency or you are about to complete on a sale abroad, today is the day to get in touch to discuss your options and to get an understanding of how we can save you as much money as possible.

When purchasing currency it’s crucial to analyse both the currencies you will be trading, as your 2nd currency will also have an impact on the pair.

Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Sterling still struggles as investors seek a safer haven to bring in the new year (Daniel Wright)

The Pound is not having the greatest end to 2016, particularly against the Dollar.

It appears investors and speculators are stepping away from Sterling and taking their profits after a slight gain seen by the Pound over the past few weeks of trading.

As we ease into the final few days of the year there are no major signs that this will turn around so if you have a foreign currency to purchase with Sterling in the next few days it may be prudent to look at doing something sooner rather than later.

As we move into 2017 the main focus will be on the actions of the Supreme Court and whether or not they do decide to overturn the ruling over article 50. Sterling exchange rates may move suddenly straight after the result is released and following this I would not be surprised to see yet another bout of jawboning, speculation and issues hanging around the matter that will no doubt add to the market volatility.

My personal opinion is that although this may be a potential banana skin, I feel the Pound is still greatly undervalued and that Sterling exchange rates should have a good recovery to look forward to, we just need to get all of the negative press out of the way first!

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange in the coming days, weeks, months or indeed years then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. The company that we all work for assists clients with large currency exchanges day in, day out and we have a base of over 90,000 satisfied clients.

We pride ourselves on highly competitive rates of exchange along with the very top level of customer service, and I would be extremely surprised if we could not save you money over your bank or current broker, along with offering you a smoother service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally to discuss the various options available to you and answer any questions or queries you may have too. I look forward to speaking with you.

Sterling’s Value Drops Ahead of Christmas Slowdown (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has started to lose value over the past 48 hours, with a downturn against both the EUR & USD.

The Pound has performed much better recently, in line with an improved run of economic data emanating out of the UK. Despite on-going concerns surrounding our future growth prospects due to our upcoming Brexit, the UK economy does seem to be moving forward more positively and this has been reflected in Sterling’s value.

GBP/EUR rates touched 1.20 on more than one occasion recently and GBP/USD was putting pressure on 1.28 only a few weeks ago.

However, since then GBP/EUR have retracted towards 1.17 with the Pound finding a lot of resistance around the 1.20 mark, whilst GBP/USD rates have slipped alarmingly below 1.23. This proves how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors and it will take a lot more than a run of positive economic figures to convince the markets that the UK economy can move forward sustainable following our Brexit next year.

This is likely dominate market sentiment for months, possibly even years to come and as such I would be wary about putting too much faith in sustainable Sterling strength. Until we have a clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit the uncertainty that this has created will handicap any major advances for the Pound in my opinion.

I do feel as we move into 2017 and assuming we do get some factual information released about how the UK economy will move forward post Brexit, that economic issues manifesting themselves inside the Eurozone will inadvertently push Sterling’s value up. However, I would be prepared to gamble on this and as such I would be taking advantage of the 4-5 cent improvement seen for those clients holding the Pound over the past month.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

When shall I Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

I feel long term we will see Sterling rally against the Euro, I feel it is chronically undervalued at present. The only reason the pound is below 1.20 is due to the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. The key factor in the pound’s value is trade negotiations, which currently leaves the nations economy in uncertainty. The High Court Judgement as to whether the government will vote on the triggering of Article 50 is due to complete in early January and this will determine whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. A hard Brexit would weaken the pound substantially. If you have to buy Euros short term and wish to eliminate any risk from your trade it may be wise take advantage of current levels.

Medium to long term as trade negotiations become more apparent Sterling should gain strength. The Euro also has some serious underlying problems which could rear their head. Political uncertainty  caused by the emergence of right wing groups could cause weakness. Also we have Italian Banks bad loans in excess of €360bn, A debt crisis in Greece and shockingly low inflation. Any of these factors could severely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

Following the FED’s decision to hike rates and forward planning indicating there could be as many as three more. I think the US dollar has further ground to gain on Sterling. The Dow is finishing at record highs and economic data is very strong. If I had to buy Dollars I would be moving quickly.

If  you have a currency requirement it is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board we can keeo you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

Sterling not feeling the festive spirit in the lead up to Christmas (Daniel Wright)

The Pound does not appear to be too jolly in the lead up the Christmas showing slight losses against most major currencies so far this week.

We have a few key economic data releases in the next few days and with slightly thinner trading levels during this time of year you can see larger swings than normal off the back of normal economic data.

For anyone that has a currently requirement coming up in the next few weeks you must be aware that leaving a position open over the festive season can be a risky strategy, especially if you are not going to be fully available to watch the markets or transfer funds should there be a big movement in your favour or against you.

Public sector net borrowing figures have been released this morning for the U.K were a little worse than expectations and we also have Consumer Confidence figures out overnight tonight and GDP (Growth) figures on Friday morning.

This is not to forget that we also have the on-going and well publicised Brexit talks and the pending Supreme Court decision on article 50 which will no doubt lead to  a large market movement. Expectations on the result of this decision are for early in January but as 2017 has shown us surprises can pop up and things do get leaked so do not be surprised if the market starts to move on rumours well in advance of this coming out.

All in all this year has been fairly jam packed with big political and Economic information which we hope we have kept you fully up to date with. If you carry out currency exchanges through your bank or a broker at present and you find our market information useful then why not give us a try. We do not only pride ourselves on providing up to date and non-biased market information but we also offer fantastic rates of exchange and a high level of customer service at the brokerage we work for too.

Pound Sterling Forecast has been running for 7 years and the brokerage we work for has been running for 17 years so we have a wealth of experience in assisting clients with currency exchanges so will be more than happy to help.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Pound hangs around pivotal points against a number of major currencies (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates are currently sat around a number of key levels which we may see broken through over the course of trading next week.

We have the Pound sat near 1.20 against the Euro, 1.25 against the Dollar, 1.70 against the Australian Dollar and 1.80 against the New Zealand Dollar.

Economic data for the U.K still continues to be solid post referendum and although there is the potential banana skin of article 50 and the supreme court decision hanging over the head of the Pound it does appear that the Pound is creeping back into fashion.

All 9 members of the Bank of England voted in favour of no change to interest rates on Thursday and I personally feel that the only thing holding the Pound back from being a great deal stronger is the uncertainty hanging over its head over the supreme court issue. This has the potential to knock the Pound back down again so anyone looking to exchange currency in the near term may wish to protect themselves from being caught out.

In my opinion I would not be surprised to see Sterling have a good week next week, we have thinner trading levels during the festive season so markets can move a little more than normal and i cannot see anything too negative hitting the Pound in the next week or so of trading.

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months ahead then here at Pound Sterling Forecast we can help you get both better exchange rates and an exceedingly high  level of customer service too.

You are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site 7 years ago on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you and deal with you personally.

 

Sterling Rallies – Will This Trend Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has rallied against most of the major currencies of late but the key question now is whether this trend will continue?

Despite the recent improvement I do feel that the on-going saga surrounding the UK’s upcoming Brexit will continue to drive market sentiment and as such the Pound is likely to be handicapped, at least to some extent, over the coming months. The UK economy seems to be holding up well at present, with a strong run of economic data supporting Sterling’s recent rise.

However,  this is masking a deep concern amongst investors as to how we are actually going to facilitate our exit from the EU and with no information yet provided by UK Prime Minister Theresa May, investors are currently shooting in the dark when it comes to predicting how the UK economy will react in months and even years to come. A report yesterday alluded to any trade deals post Brexit taking up to 10 years to negotiate and these are not exactly ideal economic conditions to support a sustainable rise for Sterling.

The UK economy remains fragile and whilst the Pound has clearly found a foothold in the market, in particular against the EUR, I’m not convinced that the current trend will continue at any great pace.

GBP/EUR rates remain marooned under 1.20, with the single currency finding a lot of protection around this key resistance level and with GBP/USD rates back under, we are hardly out of the woods yet. The USD has been well supported and this week’s interest rate hike by the US FED will only help to solidify it’s potions and with the High Court ruling surrounding the triggering of Article 50 still clouding investors decision making, I would not be prepared to gamble on the current market.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency requirement and are concerned about the recent market volatility, then we can help guide you through these turbulent times, by providing assistance with any currency transfers that you may require. Our award winning exchange rates and market insight are available to all, so please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk if you have any currency related queries.

 

US Interest Rates up by 0.25% (Daniel Johnson)

Last night saw the US interest rate decision. Janet Yellen the Head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year there would be as many as four rate hikes during 2016. None of which materialised, she has been branded with a very  cautious reputation. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity, I can’t help but think the FED’s caution was due to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election.

Trump has been very vocal about his wish to raise rates and has gone as far as to threaten Yellen’s position. Rates went up by 0.25% as anticipated so there was little movement on the GBP/EUR. Yellen stated after the hike that there would be up to three hikes this year, this can be taken with a pinch of salt as with most forward guidance.

Many investors left the Euro for US dollar due to safety and of course an increase in return. The dollar rallied against the Euro, but as mentioned earlier there was no great shakes on GBP/EUR.

With all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit trade negotiations and 1.20 seeming to be a resistance barrier if I was buying Euros I would be tempted to take advantage of current levels.

The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If  you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Sterling Exchange Rates after US Rate Hike (James Lovick)

The US raised interest rates last night by 0.25% as widely expected which marks a one year anniversary since that last 0.25% interest rate hike. The pound has seen little market reaction from the news so far but going forward the decision by the Fed to hike does show its will to steer the rest of the world in this direction and away from Quantitative Easing.

This morning sees UK retail sales numbers for November which could create volatility for the pound. My view is that November may actually see a weaker number on the high street which could see the pound fall this morning. The milder winter in my opinion is likely to have meant less shoppers on the high street although Black Friday may have bumped up the numbers.

However it could mean a bumper December figure when the figures are released in the New Year.

At lunchtime the Bank of England will be meeting to announce and changes to monetary policy. A change in the form of a rate cut or rate hike is highly unlikely although any comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are likely to direct the price of the pound. The announcement is always one to be aware of as his comments can create high volatility!

Rates for GBP EUR are still trading almost 10 cents higher than one month ago which has presented a good opportunity for those clients needing to buy Euros. Similarly rates fro GBP USD are almost 7 cents higher but struggling to climb much higher for this pair.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement either buying or selling pounds and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk