Pound Sterling Forecast

Well, just when Friday was looking kind of quiet, Germany have lost their president… This suggests to me that as we have been saying for a very long time on here there is much, much more to this European crisis than is being let out of the bag.

I think the Euro Zone is in complete crisis and it is going to take heroic economic performance to resolve it, political instability does effect a currency and this indeed will not help the Euro and investor confidence.

Happy Friday Readers! Despite a pretty rough week for sterling we are still very close to a 17 month high for buying euros. Today at 09.30 however we have the important UK retail sales data release which is predicted to show a contraction in UK consumer spending habits. I expect this will actually cause the pound to lose some ground in early morning trading..

Months of uncertainty over the US economy is turning to confidence as recent US data has showed unemployment decreasing. New Home sales yesterday showed a recovery and benefit claims also dropped. The US is seen as a barometer of the global economy and signs the US recovery is underway helped lift confidence late afternoon. The US dollar weakened as investors looked to other assets creating some excellent opportunities, close to the best since November. At 13.30 today we have US Inflation Data which could be a big market mover. If you are buying dollars be aware that the market may take an unexpected twist late on.

Staying in North America also at 13.30 we have Canadian Inflation Data. The Loonie has been making gains on a weaker pound and if we see signs Canadian Inflation is rising, you may see the CAD strengthen in afternoon trading. 

If you are making any kind of currency transfer it is well worth your while getting in touch with us before you make any final decisions. This site has helped thousands of people save thousands of pounds on their currency exchanges. Speak to me direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

This week is sure to be a lively one, below is what is due out and what I feel may happen:

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

The biggest news last week was the UK embarking on a further £50bn QE, which caused some sterling weakness but by and large because it was expected did not majorly weaken the pound. The Greek parliament has now passed its latest austerity measures, which has led to widespread violence as the move is deeply unpopular by the Greek public. A sign of things to come down the line?

The strong start to the year for UK manufacturing and industry according to the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) means the UK will not re-enter recession although other surveys have pointed towards recession. Which will it be? Well I personally would agree with the CBI and feel we will avoid a double dip recession. That won’t necessarily translate into strength for the pound however as Unemployment has continued to rise and there is also the threat of a Eurozone recession weighing on the UK. It is good to be able to provide a positive forecast for the UK and the pound however!

We won’t have the official figures for Q1 2012 GDP until April 25^th but this Wednesday sees Unemployment Data which could well move the market. Unemployment has continued to rise in the UK despite £325 bn of QE so far injected and the government will be under real pressure to see this situation change soon or risk their credibility.

In Europe the political fallout from Greece will continue to grab headlines and we could see an interesting week for the Euro depending on German GDP figures released Wednesday whilst also on Wednesday morning we have Eurozone GDP which will probably show the Eurozone in recession.

Overseas we have the G20 summit starting Friday which could well provide further information on how Greece will be managed and in the US we will have the Federal Reserve Minutes which may provide further information on the outlook for the US dollar.

If you have any currency transfers to make be it this morning or in the future, please feel free to get in touch. I can keep you posted on what is happening on the markets and ensure your funds get transferred quickly, safely and securely at a commercial exchange rate.

GBPEUR Outlook – This has been rather stagnant for the past month and due to the QE decision and also the Greek austerity measures is certainly touching the lowest points for anyone buying euros in the last month. BUT this is still much higher than your average rate last year and I still think represents a good opportunity. With UK unemployment still rising and the prospect of a double dip recession we could see still some further sterling weakness in the coming weeks. Wednesday could be a key date as we have not only German and Eurozone GDP but also The Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report. Let me know if you have a trade and I can make sure you are kept aware of movements that will affect your rate.

GBPUSD Outlook – Following last month’s news the Fed will keep rates on hold until probably late 2014, the dollar has kept up its position and has now approached a 4 month low against the pound. As always events in Greece and Europe could move the Dollar according to risk sentiments. Like last year I would expect the Dollar to weaken if investor’s confidence returns but it is worth pointing out that we are no further ahead with a solution to Europe’s debt problems. Is the returning confidence misplaced? If you have any USD trades I can keep you posted on current trends and events that will move the market.

AUD / NZD / ZAR – There has been a real return to higher risk investments of late and we have seen the Aussie and the Kiwi strengthen. This is on the back of good data coming from China and the weakness of the pound. The Rand too has strengthened massively against the pound and is close to highs touched in September. If you are holding any of these currencies and considering selling back to sterling, you are looking at some very favourable levels. Speak to me find out how we can help move your funds quickly and safely at commercial exchange rates.

If you need to make any currency transfers and would like any further information on any currency pairing feel free to get in touch and we will make sure you know all the ins and outs surrounding your exchange and get the very best rate. You can use the contact form or contact me direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk

As the old saying goes if you put your head above the parapet, prepare to be shot! Against my predictions we have seen further QE but the pound has gained about half a cent from today’s earlier lows. This is more than likely due to the fact this was expected and it wasnt perhaps as bad as the possible £75bn of asset purchases some expected. I did point out however the status quo could lead to sterling strength and this is what has happened..

Utilising QE will help the UK’s slow road to recovery to remain loosely on track and should mean that if we do enter any recession this year it should not be too bad. The Eurozone as we know is one of the biggest threats to not just the UK’s recovery but also the global recovery. This batch of QE should support the pound for what may still be a very challenging year ahead due to overseas issues.

Always expect the unexpected on the markets. We have had QE but the pound is currently trading at the high of the day against most currencies!

If you would like any further information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Following on from Jonathan’s post and to show just how undecided even the most ‘in the know’ people are, I personally feel we will see QE at 12:00 and some Sterling weakness….. Who will come out on top with this one, myself or Jonathan?????

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… djw@currencies.co.uk

Good Morning Readers, today has the potential to be a very busy day for anyone buying or selling the pound as all eyes focus on the Bank of England (BoE) and whether or not they will embark on yet more QE. Quantitative Easing  essentially weakens the currency concerned as the money supply is increased and the last two times this has been announced the pound has tumbled by a good few cents and pence against practically every currency! QE is a ‘shot in the arm’ for an economy and many would argue that it is just what the UK needs at the moment. This site is all about our opinions and forecasts and I personally don’t think we will see QE today. We could see the pound make some small gains because of this. If you are looking at doing any deal buying or selling the pound I would plan for all eventualities however… Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst! You can speak to me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to find out all of your options ahead of today’s announcements.

Going against the grain I think there is a good chance we will not see further QE today. Even though there is a general concensus that more QE is necessary at some stage – Mervyn King, the Governor of the BoE said so – a recent run of data for the start of this year has shown improvements in manufacturing and construction. PMI data has reported readings above 50 indicating growth. If I were an MPC member I would vote for no change in the current asset purchases programme until we see next months data. If I am right we could see the pound strengthen as the pound weakened yesterday on the back of anticipation of further QE (like it did in January). If I am wrong I would not expect any major change as this has to an extent already been priced in to the value of sterling.

Looking to the Eurozone however I would not be suprised to see an interest rate cut. The Eurozone looks more likely to be about to enter a dangerous recession because of the economies that are suffering. I think the ECB therefore needs to cut rates to promote growth because that is what is lacking and damaging not just the ‘PIGS’ but the rest of the Eurozone and the world.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information. 

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly jmw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Today was one of the busiest days on the trading floor this year and mainly due to the big decline in sterling exchange rates. When there is major movements in rates that is when we are at our busiest either helping clients decide to capitalise on a gain or stop their loss. The pound took a big
hit against nearly every major currency the day before the big interest rate decision in the UK & Euro Zone. All our regular readers will be well aware of what may occur tomorrow should the Bank of England initiate any further QE. The decision is at 12pm tomorrow so please keep in close contact with us so we can be your eyes and ears on the market.

Just as things had looked like getting better for the pound against the Euro spiking at 1.2098 a couple of days ago, sterling has crashed down to 1.1920 today. Euro exchange rates spiked against most major currencies bringing back better opportunities to sell your Euros to buy GBP or USD. We have been looking at events in Greece for days now wondering if they will find a resolution to cut their spending to the tune of 3 billion Euros which will enable them to get the desperatelyneeded bailout funds they require.

It seems that Greece has finally agreed to the austerity cuts but what will happen with Euro exchange rates? The issues in Europe are far from being over. To many countries are in too deep but this latest resolution will probably strengthen the Euro against a range of currencies in the very
near term. I do not see long term Euro strength and we may see the pound weaken to 1.17/1.18ish over the course of the next week and the USD to weaken to 1.34. I would then expect to see the Euro weaken to levels of 1.20+ against the pound and dip back below 1.30 against the USD.

If you are selling Euros to buy any major currency you may find that today’s agreement may bring that small glimmer of light for you to achieve that little bit more than what has been available over the last two months. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by. Feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can look at your personal situation and see what options may be suited to your circumstances. In terms of the rate we will offer you please compare what we can offer you to your bank. We will do our upmost to make you a significant saving over your high street bank. Please call us to get a comparison rate.

If you are one of the 26,000 regular readers a month that
finds our currency updates both insightful and interesting then you will be
pleased to know we can actually assist you with any currency transfers you may
have, from smaller transfers of £1000 up to multi millions we have the right
department to be able to both save you money and offer you a better service
than your bank or current broker.

Even if you are happy with your current provider it is
always worth getting a comparison. I am confident that we will be able to get
you a better rate and I hope you would find our award winning personal service
much better than what you are currently getting.

Do feel free to click here and
open up a free, no obligation trading facility writing Pound Sterling Forecast
in the box confirming how you heard about us, and one of the highly experienced
writers of this site will be in contact with you personally to discuss your
requirements and explain how we can help.