Category Archives: Sterling weakness
Sterling exchange rates have been reasonably static lately against the major currencies however tomorrow has the potential to be quite a market mover.
We have Australian unemployment figures out overnight tonight followed by Industrial and manufacturing production figures for the U.K tomorrow at 09:30am. The unemployment figures have the potential to shift rates against the Australian Dollar and the production figures may affect the Pound against all majors.
Most importantly we have the Bank of England interest rate decision and any further news on more Quantitative Easing will be extremely key. For those of you that have follwed the market over the past few years it seems that every time Sterling is performing well and heading into the right direction the Government or the Bank of England step in and do something to knock it back down again so you must be aware this is the perfect time for them to do so.
Should tomorrow pass without any surprises I think the Pound may be set for another positive month now that the potential recession is out of the way and focus has turned to other troubled economies hopefully Sterling will become a currency of choice once again.
If you have an upcoming currency transfer involving buying or selling the Pound then feel free to contact me directly as I can assist you with not only getting the very best exchange rate but also a full round service of making the transaction as smooth as possible. If this sounds of interest then please email me directly firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to assist you.
An excellent run of form for sterling has seen us hit a 15 week high against the euro and 11 week highs against the US dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. Is this going to get much better or has this rally run out of steam?
I think that this rally has run out of steam but that does not mean rates are going to just crash back down. Sterling has been given a boost by the improved GDP stats (0.3% growth for Q1) which removes some of the more immediate concerns regarding sterling. In order for the pound to press on we need to see more positive data and next Thursday could be a trigger with Industrial and Manufacturing data plus the NIESR (National Institute of Economic & Social Research) estimate of GDP for April.
If you are considering moving sterling in the next few weeks next week could be fairly pivotal in shaping the future direction for sterling. It is important not just for sterling but due to the releases affecting other currencies. Here is a quick run through of a couple of things to beware of on rates next week.
EURO – Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) are giving a couple of speeches next week including the ECB Monthly Report. There was a story today that the ECB were playing down speculation yesterday rates may be cut further. If any such bold statements are made I expect the Euro to strengthen, but not by much.. The Euro is in the firing line right now. If you are considering any GBPEUR or EURGBP transfers in the future please feel free to contact me for a forecast specific to your requirements. email@example.com
USD – An improved employment outlook for the US today helped the USD to strengthen against sterling but unless the pound comes under pressure I expect GBPUSD to push higher. A speech next Friday by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank in the US, Ben Bernanke could be crucial.
AUSTRALIAN – The Reserve Bank of Australia meet for their monthly meeting next Monday evening where they decide on economic policy. The statement after their meeting may be more indicative of policy as no change is expected. Next week we also have Australian employment data which could move rates. On the whole I expect rates to remain good for buyers, sellers of AUD to buy GBP may wish to move sooner if they don’t see improvements.
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As expected the European Central Bank cut its base rate to a record low of 0.5% from 0.75% earlier today pushing GBP/EUR close to 1.19 for the first time in nearly three months, as Mario Dragji (head of the ECB) indicated he would consider cutting rates further and could not rule out negative interest rates. The move for sterling has been a welcome relief for many and showing little sign of slowing, in fact the pound has now gained 4.3% against the single currency since its low in mid March and a very similar trend has been experienced against a number of major currencies.
Moves against the greenback and Aussie have been even more substantial seeing a shift of 4.5% since mid March against the US dollar and 5.2% against the Australian Dollar in the last month. This makes a significant difference on your money exchange and may represent a strong buy opportunity for some, however I guess the question for many is will this last?
For me I believe this could be the start of a correction for the pound, certainly against the Euro and Australian Dollar but I feel the US dollar is less clear and will remain range bound between 1.53-1.55. Those buying Euros and AUD may get more from the market and I would look for levels to head towards 1.20 for GBP/EUR and possibly 1.55 for GBP/AUD. AUD buyers should watch out for the next RBA meeting (Reserve Bank of Australia) scheduled for Tuesday next week, should the RBA Australia cut interest rates (as some analysts are predicting) we could see a further shift for GBP/AUD, I feel the RBA may also be considering further rate cuts later this year and would expect to see more value for AUD buyers in the coming weeks, particularly should China show further signs of an economic slowdown.
For those looking to buy the US dollar I would certainly consider 1.55 to be viewed as good value and feel this has the potential to move back towards 1.50, although data of late from the US has been weaker than many expected which has pushed cable close to 1.56. Tomorrow watch out of US non-farm payroll figures that are expected to show a strong increase from last month, something again that could lend support to the dollar in tomorrows afternoon session. Much of the dollars moves will come down to perceived appetite for risk and I think with the market still so jittery losses for the dollar will slow and would expect levels to shift back in the dollars favour, I would expect US dollar sellers to get more value in the coming weeks.
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Pound Sterling exchange rates against the Euro – Will we see an interest rate cut today? What effect will it have? (Daniel Wright)
Today is a big day for Europe as we may potentially see an interest rate cut which could lead to further weakness for the Euro.
Exchange rates for the pound against the Euro have remained fairly steady since the big push up following the issue in Cyprus however today has the potential to move rates onwards and upwards once more.
Of course, with so much speculation that this is going to happen there is a huge risk that if we do not see a cut in rates then we may see the Euro gain a little strength quite rapidly as the markets correct themselves – If you have a pending transfer to carry out involving buying or selling the Euro then it is key that you are ready to act fast.
If you would like me to get in touch personally following the decision then feel free to email me firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number for me to call you on.
We also have some construction figures for the U.K this morning which could give a nod to how the second quarter started for the U.K in 2013 -This could affect the Pound against all major currencies – We are currently at an 11 week high to buy the Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar which does lead to a great temptation to buy these particular currencies in case we see nthe rates slip back down again.
Personally I think Sterling confidence is up and the Pound may well start to creep in the right direction as I have been saying since the start of this year, however you must also be aware that the pattern tends to be that as soon as Sterling looks like it is finally about to push on something comes out to knock it straight back down again.
If you want to achieve the very best exchange rates, or even to ask me if the rate you are being offered is good before you accept it then feel free to get in touch with me directly – You can contact me by email email@example.com or call me directly on 01494 787 478 during U.K office hours, please ask for Daniel Wright.
Wow, what a busy day on the markets and indeed on our trading floor following much better than expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures released for the U.K.
The Pound has gained against all major currencies as figures released were much better than expected coming out at 0.3% growth instead of the expected 0.1%.
This has provided a great buying opportunity for anyone looking to buy foreign currency – If you have a pending currency transfer to carry out then feel free to call me immediately firstname.lastname@example.org with a brief overview of your requirement and a number for me to call you back on. We specialise in getting the very best rates of exchange for bank to bank transfers so it is worth sending a quick email over for a comparison against your bank or current provider, we may save you hundreds if not thousands.
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Our trading floor predictions for tomorrow – GDP figures and the high/low against the Euro (Daniel Wright)
I thought it may be interesting to quiz a group of traders on our trading floor regarding their thoughts on what we may see tomorrow for the U.K GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures and where this may put rates during the day against the Euro.
The general feeling appeared to be growth for the U.K – Only just however, below below are the predictions of the traders we polled – if you fancy making your own prediction then email it to me
firstname.lastname@example.org why not see if you can beat the traders, we may even give away a prize if anyone is spot on!
Personally I feel we may see 0.1% growth as expected just about avoiding recession and that the market will creep up a little but will not absolutely rocket as many people do already expect the U.K to just about tiptoe around the R word.
If we are technically back in a recession you would imagine the Pound may drop considerably so it is key to have protection in place if you are close to budget on your overseas purchase – You can place a stop loss order (setting yourself a worst case scenario to be bought out automatically) or book some of your funds on a forward contract (booking a rate for a date in advance for a small deposit) Email me directly if you want a full explanation on these free contract types or just want assistance and the best exchange rates on any currency transfers. Catch me on email@example.com with a brief explanation of your requirements and a number to call you back on and I will be more than happy to help.
Our predictions – Just goes to show how close this is!
How will tomorrow pan out? Email me your prediction firstname.lastname@example.org
GBPEUR rates anticipate GDP figures tomorrow, currency news, buying euros, selling euros, pound sterling forecast (Steve Eakins)
Regular readers will be well aware of the potential market moving release tomorrow morning. UK GDP figures are released first thing at 9:30 which will confirm whether or not the UK is back into recession. Before large releases like this the market moves to price in the expected result, in this case this happened in yesterday’s trading when GBPEUR rates climbed to a 2 week high.
So what next for exchange rates?
How will GDP effect GBPEUR exchange rates?
Well as the market seems to have priced in the expectation that the UK has avoided a recession by a cats whisker if the true figure comes out as expected I don’t imagine we will see rates move much, it might climb by 0.25% but I think it would be unlikely to see anything more. If the figure comes out negative and the UK returns to a recession I would expect a big fall, potentially cents which would add a significant cost for any euro, dollar buyers. The last potential outcome, however doubtful is if the figure comes out better than expected, showing a growth of 0.3% or higher. In this situation I would expect rates to climb significantly.
If I was a client looking at moving money within the next fortnight I would certainly be aware of tomorrow and have a plan in place ready to take any advantage, limit any loss or to shrink my exposure. When this news breaks out the markets will move very quickly so if you are looking at trading on the event make sure you are in a position ready to go beforehand. Register for SPIKE notifications by contacting us here via email email@example.com with a summary of your situation and full contact details.
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Sterling is finding better support against most currencies as a positive GDP figure is expected on Thursday. This is of course good news or bad news depending on what you need to do! A positive figure will not in my opinion be enough for sterling to shake the blues but, it may be enough to provide anyone hanging on for dear life with a little sweetener in their price!
The pound has been suffering this year and it is likely this pressure will remain. Economically the UK is in a mess! What has improved lately is the economic conditions in the US which will help UK businesses. Europe on the other hand is on the cusp of worse troubles and with less orders for UK businesses as a result, sustained economic growth from business in the months and years ahead will be difficult. You have been warned!
I suggest therefore if you are considering moving on a currency transaction you pay particular attention to what happens this Thursday. Earlier in the year I wrote about the three key issues to beware of on the pound this year. You can read the post here. The three issues were the EU referendum, the triple A rating and the triple dip recession. Two of those topics have come true, in two days time we will find the answer to the third. The pound is absolutely on the edge!
Expectations are swaying daily but the general consensus seems to be we have narrowly avoided the dip. Such data is notoriously difficult to predict and as such I expect the pound to be very volatile in the coming 48 hours. Do not mistake the UK avoiding the triple dip for proof of a return to the rates we saw last year or earlier this year. The outlook remains negative and this is why I feel anyone selling sterling for another currency should really take stock now!
If you have an exchange to consider in the next couple of weeks Thursday’s data is very much worth being aware of. Our proactive personal service aims to ensure our clients get the best information relevant to their requirements. We are currency specialists with many years experience assisting and guiding both private and corporate clients through their transfers. We offer an unbeatable rate of exchange and it is very rare any of us would be beaten on price by another company or the banks.
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Thursday should be a key fixture in the diary of anyone with an upcoming currency requirement, as this is when the latest set of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be released. These will determine whether the UK economy has fallen back into official recession and whilst these figures could well be revised in the coming months, the initial market reaction will most likely mirror the result.
Personally I cannot see GBP gaining much momentum even if we do avoid recession, although there will be an element of market confidence returning to the Pound and it should stabilize. If we do in fact find ourselves back in a recession then the Pound will struggle to make any serious inroads against the major currencies and provided the Eurozone doesn’t throw up any nasty surprises (something which sounds unlikely given the recent history), then we are likely to see Sterling move back towards 1.14.
The EUR has tried to strengthen recently amid this on-going negativity but is constantly hampered by its own economic problems, which are prevalent and deep rooted throughout the Eurozone economy. It is almost a guarantee that we will hear of further unrest, whether it be in Cyprus or one of the larger nations such as Spain, France or Italy (just take note of the on-going political debacle and lack of a cohesive government). All of these nations have the ability to spark a further financial crisis should their economies collapse and unfortunately at times the Eurozone seems as if it is held together by nothing more than empty promises and increasingly harsh austerity measures.
GBP/USD rates have levelled out slightly recently although the USD continues to hold firm against the Pound, despite a small fight back from GBP recently. Despite the recent worse than expected non farms payroll data, the US economy does seem to be moving in the right direction and it is likely that we will see continued USD strength throughout Q2 of this year. I feel GBP will struggle to break back through 1.55 anytime soon, although a move back under 1.50 is now unlikely based on historical data.
The NZD continues to look strong against GBP with rates hovering around 1.80 for some time now. Many clients looking to purchase NZD will more than likely have been holding out for a move back towards 1.90, or maybe even 2 but personally I feel even 1.90 may be an unrealistic target, especially in the short to medium-term.
With the UK on the verge of a further recession and the NZD buoyed by a strong AUD and strong exports, it is likely we will see GBP/NZD range bound between 1.78-1.85 over the coming weeks.
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