Category Archives: USD

Where Next for GBP Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has continued to hold its position in the market this week, a trend which has been familiar over recent months. It has been widely discussed how UK economic data has improved sufficiently to bring confidence back in the UK recovery, which in turn has allowed the Pound the opportunity to make significant gains against most of the major currencies through the first half of 2014.

Despite the fact the Pound has fallen away from its recent two year high against the EUR, rates are still sitting above 1.25 on the exchange, providing some of the best buying opportunities of this year. Whilst the EUR has found support around the current levels it is struggling to make any sustained inroads and every time it seems as if a EUR fight back is on, market confidence disappears and the Pound quickly realigns itself.

It’s been a quiet week of economic data releases for both the UK & Eurozone but tomorrow could be key with the latest Eurozone inflation data and unemployment figures, both of which are usually key market movers.

GBP/USD have dropped again this week, as the USD continues its fight back against the Pound. Although this move has been tempered by recent false dawns, it does seem as if the positive momentum being built by the Greenback will continue. GBP/USD rates have moved back below 1.66 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cable back below 1.60 by the end of 2014.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Flat week for Sterling so far with little economic data out – What does the rest of the week hold? (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has had a fairly slow start to the week against all major currencies, as we have seen very little in the way of economic data released leading towards the end of the month.

We do have a few points of note later on in the week mainly concerning Europe, Canada and America.

Swiss employment figures are however due at 08:15am tomorrow morning which is one point of note for anyone following the Swiss Franc.

Shortly after that we have German unemployment figures at 08:55am which although is a fairly important release however it appears no change in unemployment rates is expected but any differential to the expectation of 6.7% could lead to a volatile morning for the Euro.

later on in the day at 13:30pm we do have U.S GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will show growth over in the states during a specific period and can actual lead to market volatility for all major currencies as it may have an effect on global attitude to risk.

Friday we round the week off for the Euro with European inflation and employment  figures with year on year inflation expected to come out at 0.8%   and unemployment to remain at 11.5% (much worse than that of the U.K and US).

Canada release their GDP figures later on in the afternoon at 13:30pm and one thing to be fairly wary of is month end flows which we do tend to see fairly often on the last day of the month. This can cause volatility for all major currencies in any direction so Friday is a good day to ensure you have someone watching the market for you.

If you do not currently use a currency broker or you feel you could be getting a little more out of the broker you currently use in terms of exchange rate and service then it may be prudent to contact me directly.

I pride myself on keeping clients fully up to date with market movements and our exchange rates have won numerous awards so I would be surprised if I couldn’t save you money too.

Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to give you a call to explain the service and quote you if you wish.

GBP Overview (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a mixed week for Sterling, following a run of inconsistent economic data releases. The Pound lost position against the EUR early in the week as UK inflation data came out worse than expected. However, just as it looked as though the EUR may start to build some positive momentum the Pound fought back, following the release of the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. These showed that two of the central banks members had voted in favour of an interest rate hike, news which immediately helped to boost market sentiment in the Pound, moving GBP/EUR rates back through 1.25 on the exchange.

Considering the up and down nature of this particular trading week it shouldn’t have been a surprise when the markets were once again thrown by worse than expected UK Retail Sales figures, which were released yesterday. The effects of this has now culminated in GBP/EUR floating just below the 1.25 level during this morning’s trading , with little movement expected today due to the relative lack of UK & Eurozone activity.

The USD continues to show an improvement against the Pound and following the release of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, the USD moved back under 1.66 on the exchange. This recent trend of USD strength has helped to alleviate some pressure on the green back, which has found itself handicapped by a stagnant economy over recent months.

Are we now finally seeing the recovery many analysts expected the USD to make at the start of 2014 year? I believe we are and the FED’s recent minutes have reaffirmed this belief, indicating that policy makers on a whole are happy with improvements in the job market but more importantly that they may raise interest rates sooner than expected. This news is likely to help the USD continue to strengthen against the Pound, with further gains likely in the short to medium-term. Personally I feel we are now likely to see GBP/USD put pressure back on 1.65, so if you need to purchase USD’s it may be prudent to move sooner rather than later.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currnecies.co.uk

Can we save you money and beat your current quote for currency exchange? Why not try us out, I would be surprised if I cannot beat any bank or brokerage rate which means more money in your pocket (Daniel Wright)

I have had thousands of clients contact me through this site over the past five years and almost every single one has ended up making a saving using the company I work for over their current provider.

When it comes to an online platform for example, generally I would steer clear of using those as although they are fairly convenient, you have nobody working on the rate for you therefore tend to find you aren’t getting the best exchange rate you can.

Also, if you have been using a broker for many years then in my experience, like with anything in life it pays dividends to get a comparison once in a while even if you are fairly comfortable as it is highly unlikely that your exchange rate will be as sharp as it possibly can be.

The beauty of our service is that we are not tied to a particular margin therefore it means that there should be no reason why I can’t make sure I save you enough money to make sure it is worth your while using us, if I can’t then I will be totally honest and tell you to carry on with your current provider – For two minutes of your time getting in touch there really is nothing to lose.

I have clients ranging from small companies buying stock from China to larger companies millions of  Pounds overseas regularly along with private clients sending regular payments over for mortgage payments to premier league footballers buying a villa in Spain.

Feel free to email  me (Daniel Wright) today on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief explanation of your needs and a contact number and I will contact you straight away to let you know what I can offer and how the service works. We have won numerous national awards for our exchange rates and level of customer service so if you have found the information on this site of use so far it would be well worth you getting in touch.

Are you placing too high an expectation on sterling exchange rates rising?

So today the unexpected happened and two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty both voted to raise interest rates citing improvements in the economy and expectations wage growth could soon rise in line with inflation which has been falling. The effects were immediate and sterling spiked up reaching a peak of 1.2546 (GBPEUR) and 1.6679 (GBUSD) offering relief to anyone buying a foreign currency with the pound. The gains were quickly undone however with sterling finishing the day only about 0.1% above the opening on most pairings.

I think this highlights the danger in banking on big improvements in sterling exchange rates in the future. Here we have had the first split vote since 2011 at 7-2 and the effects were rather timid and failed to help lift sterling to the lofty heights we enjoyed a few weeks ago. I think if you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling making some plans now is a wise move since it is difficult to see where any further major boost will emanate from.

Tomorrow are Retail figures plus Government Borrowing data which may all serve to help lift the pound. Both releases were actually negative for sterling last month so if you are in a position to be holding sterling waiting to buy another currency, moving sooner might be the best course of action. To help catch the very best rates we offer STOP LOSS and LIMIT orders which trigger when certain levels are hit. This is often the only way to catch the best rates since the market can move so quickly!

For more information on what is the best approach to your currency situation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I have been working as a currency broker for 5 years and have lots of experience in the planning and execution of international payments. I look forward to hearing from you.

Jonathan

 

Bank Of England Minutes Show Mixed View On Interest Rates 7-2; Sterling Rallies (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound has been under pressure since last weeks Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report whereby the prospect of an interest rate hike was pushed back as predicted.  This was reinforced by yesterday’s fall in inflation from 1.9% to 1.6% (the figure had been expected at 1.8%), so it would suggest inflation is not a concern for the moment that would require an interest rate hike to curb it.

However the Bank of England Minutes just published showed a split of 7-2 in favour of holding rates, and sterling has rallied back this morning.  The news still suggests we are a way off a hike as it will take 5 members to approve it, however it does make it a bit more likely than it was prior to this announcement.  I still think we need a consistent period of positive data to merit an interest rate hike and expect this to occur in early 2015, so I wouldn’t expect sterling to rocket up any time soon  This news is more likely to simply provide sterling some support and relief from the sell off over the previous week rather than recover all the losses since the end of July.

Whilst Carney has come under fire in the media for flip-flopping on when interest rates may go up, however I think some people are missing the point.  It isn’t so much when rates will rise that he is focussing on but the fact that increases will be small and measured  ie people and businesses can make longer term investment plans on the back of this rather than worrying that borrowing costs might shoot up 2% in a year and risk a panic or another bust!

There are still areas of concern for the pound including the deficit (let’s see how Public Borrowing comes out on Thursday), and the Scottish Referendum.  Whilst I do not expect Scotland to vote yes, I think this issue needs to be resolved to remove uncertainty hanging over sterling.  To this end I think current levels for the pound represent pretty good value against the Euro, Kiwi, and Aussie for now and would be tempted to buy.  Dollar buyers may want to see what comes out of the FOMC Minutes this evening before making a decision.  If you would like help with a currency transfer or find out what exchange rate we can offer, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

 

Inflation Falls leads to Sterling Falls (Tom Holian)

As predicted in one of my previous posts Sterling has begun to fall recently against both the Euro and the US Dollar. This morning saw the eagerly anticipated release of inflation data for the UK. The CPI showed a fall from the expected 1.8% to 1.6%.

Good news for rail passengers as this directly affects how much their train tickets will cost next year but not good news for those looking to buy Euros or Dollars with Sterling. The Pound fell against both the Dollar hitting its lowest point against the dollar since April – and the Euro following the release of the inflation figures.

During July there was a lot of suggestions that interest rates may go up sooner than the markets currently expects but with inflation now falling to its lowest level in many months this means that an interest rate hike may be off the agenda for longer than previously expected.

Tomorrow sees the release of the Bank of England minutes. With 9-0 the expectation any change could see a fightback for the Pound but personally I think this would be rather unlikely.

Moving the focus over to the US all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes due tomorrow evening. With the taper due to end in October I think we’ll see further Dollar strength against both the Euro and Sterling following the release of the data.

Since mid-July Sterling has fallen by 6 cent against the Dollar as by as much as 4% which is the difference of £4,600 on a currency transfer of USD200,000.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank or another currency broker then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Pound Sterling Forecast – Economic data out the first few days this week and how it may move exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

A very slow start to the week for Sterling today with very little economic data or news for the markets to move off.

This will more than likely be the calm before the storm this week though as there is plenty of data for investors and speculators alike to get their teeth into which will no doubt cause quite a lot of volatility for most major currencies.

Tonight - Overnight we see the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) meeting minutes and the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) inflation expectations, out at 02:30am and 04:00am respecively. RBA Governor Stevens has seemingly turned a corner lately with his comments on the strength of the Australian Dollar and appears to be a little happier with the way things are going, leading to the Australian Dollar gaining some strength back against the Pound and knocking the GBP/AUD rate back below 1.80. Stevens is also due to speak on 00:30 Tuesday night as well.

Tomorrow – Tomorrow morning we see a key inflation release from the U.K which could easily lead to a bumpy ride for Sterling followers during the course of tomorrow morning. Inflation had beejn at 1.9% which is just about below the Government target of 2% so any minor alterations to this, especailly to the upside could give the Pound a morning boost, as one way to lower would be to raise interest rates, so a figure of 2% or above may lead to a little speculation of a rate hike coming a little closer. Of course, comments from the Governor of the Bank of England last week may well cut this potential out.

Later in the day it is the turn of the States for their inflation data, interstingly also expected to come out at 1.9% so if you have an interest in the Dollar be sure to keep a watchful eye on the market shortly after 13:30pm – Or why not email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I can monitor things on your behalf.

Wednesday – Wednesday morning we have the Bank of  England minutes from the last BOE interest rate decision. No major expectations from this one however it does really have the potential to throw up a surprise or two and news that any of the 9 members of the Bank of England now are voting in favour of an interest rate hike may give also Sterling a shift up in the right direction.

Later in the evening we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Commitee) minutes, again very similar to the BOE minutes seen a little earlier on this will show how the Fed voted in terms of rate movements and what they discussed at the last interest rate decision, last time around we saw one memebr of the Fed vote in favour of a rate hike which did give the Dollar a little boost.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out and you want to achieve the very best rates of exchange either for your company or a personal transaction, along with highly valuable market knowledge then why not contact me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

Even if you currently use another broker you may be surprised at how much you can save by getting in touch as a small improvement on an exchange rate can make a big difference to you.

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

UK GDP as expected, where to focus now? (Mike Vaughan)

This mornings revised GDP figures were as expected coming in at 0.8% and causing little reaction for the pound, something that is also likely to be seen with the Euro due to the European bank holiday. Lately the Euro has reached a near one month high against the pound having shifted back nearly two cents since the lows seen in July creating, in my opinion, a good opportunity for anyone selling Euros.

Looking at the US dollar and recently the greenback has had somewhat of a resurgence against the pound having rallied 3% since mid July. For me this is a trend that could well continue.

With the prospect of an interest rate hike in the UK this year highly unlikely and some of the data sets in the UK starting to slow, the pound is now on the back foot. To compound this the data from the US is improving and with the end of the FED’s tapering of QE in sight (last taper scheduled for October) I believe rumours will begin to circulate regarding when the FED may raise interest rates and it is this speculation that for me will drive the dollar (in the same way that it lent support to sterling earlier this year). For this reason should you be buying dollars you may wish to assess your position now.

Should you be selling AUD then the current shift of three cents may represent a good return. Levels are trading at a three month high for AUD/GBP and with the RBA minutes released overnight Tuesday next week, then these levels may not hang around too long. Any hint towards an interest rate cut by the RBA and the current AUD strength could be evaporated very quickly. Also looking at the recent trend between this pair and I would expect a correction back towards 1.80 soon.

To get more insight into the currency service we provide and to discuss the various contract types we can offer then please get in touch. With access to commercial rates of exchange we aim to undercut any other financial institution and save our clients money. Please email me with a brief overview of your particular requirement and  see how our service can help you. Please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling suffers following Mark Carney’s comments – Pound weakness against all majors (Daniel Wright)

Sterling has had a fairly bad couple of days following reasonably negative comments from the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney during the BOE inflation report.

Carneys comments included the fact that he felt the strong Pound was creating a headwind for exports and becoming damaging and that there was a “heightened uncertainty” about slack in the economy.

Mark Carney also declined to comment on the precise timing of an interest rate hike and that there  is no numerical threshold for wage growth that will trigger a rise in interest rates.

This all followed news earlier on in the morning that average earnings had dropped off a little which is bad news for the U.K economy and may well hold back a rate hike.

Apart from a number of other factors, one of the key elements to contribute towards the U.K hiking interest rates and the Pound possibly starting to see good strength off the back of this is wage inflation keeping in line or above general inflation. If the figure stays below then even if people are earning slightly more, the price of goods and services is actually going up at a faster pace therefore they are actually worse off and a rate hike would not be particularly helpful.

This all is a little concerning for anyone looking to buy foreign currency with the Pound for either their company, to purchase an overseas property or indeed for any other reason they may need to send money overseas. The recent rise in the value of Sterling had generally been surrounding both good solid economic data along with growing speculation of an interest rate hike coming closer and with data dropping off a little and the Governor of the Bank of England not being so positive then the Pound could have a grey cloud over it again for a little.

For those who don’t know an interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for the currency concerned and a cut in rates can be negative and with the market moving on speculation as well as fact you can see quite large movements on any comments such as we heard this morning.

If you have a requirement in the future but you do not yet have the full availability of funds you can book out a forward contract. This is where you can book a rate out for up to a year in advance with just a small deposit, removing the risk of the currency market making your purchase any more expensive in the future.

This is ideal if you are in the process of buying a property overseas as you can know exactly how much the property is going to cost you today and eliminate the risk of the Pound dropping away again and missing out on this great opportunity.

I look forward to speaking with you if you have any questions or queries or you would like to book out a rate of exchange. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a contact number and an overview of what your requirements are and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally to explain how I may be able to assist you.

This site is protected by Comment SPAM Wiper.