Category Archives: USD

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has had a mixed week on the markets so far following a run of inconsistent economic data releases. Despite GBP/EUR spiking back to 1.27 on the exchange, I do not anticipate any major spikes for GBP against either the EUR or USD from the current position. With UK inflation now at a five year low, coupled with our growth forecast being cut for 2015 means the Pound is likely to struggle, especially in the short-term.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence figures came out as expected today and were up on last month’s figure and this is also likely to help the EUR to find support around 1.27 and I still feel it is far more likely that we will see GBP/EUR move back towards 1.25 than spike up to 1.30 and considering we are still trading very close to a two year high on the pair, I would be tempted to consider my position around the current levels if you do have an upcoming EUR purchase.

GBP/USD is currently floating around 1.60, with the USD spiking yesterday following the US FED’s decision to end their current Quantitative Easing programme. This is an indication that the US economic recovery is now moving ahead of the UK’s and I would be very surprised if GBP/USD moves back through 1.60 for any sustained period in the lead up to Christmas.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

How will UKIP affect sterling?

UKIP continue to make gains in polls and are certainly likely to be a thorn in the side of the more established parties, indeed they already have been. But is this more a reflection of the tough times ahead for the UK (and the pound) or a flash in the pan protest vote?

UKIP have the power to severely undermine confidence in sterling. there is tremendous uncertainty posed by a party with no solid economic idea from what I have seen. Aside from promising to withdraw from Europe and playing on peoples immigration fears it is difficult to find concrete policy. Let it be known that any withdrawal from Europe would have wide reaching consequences for the UK economy and hence the pound. Whilst it might be welcomed we examine the relationship with Europe the economic benefits of being part of Europe should not be underestimated.

We shall learn much more about the true effects of UKIP on the pound in the next few months as we have bi-election and then the General Election in May 2015. The effect on sterling from increased political uncertainty will undoubtedly be negative and anyone hoping to see sterling keep climbing in 2014 and beyond might be disappointed.

To keep up to date with the pound and how important events affect your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP Dips Following Poor UK Retail Sales Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has dipped during Thursday morning’s trading following the release of the latest UK Retail Sales figures. With figures dropping in September by 0.3%, it is another indication that all is not well with the UK economy and it now seems as if our recovery is stagnating. With inflation falling to a five year low recently and on-going concerns over the knock effect the Eurozone slowdown is having on the UK economy, we may find that GBP struggles to make any further sustained inroads against the EUR.

Tomorrow is likely to be a key date for investors, as we have the latest set of UK Gross Domestic Product figures. A country’s GDP figure gives investors a key insight into the overall performance of that particular economy and with UK growth expected to fall in Q3 from 0.9% to 0.7%, we may find that the Pound continues to come under pressure as we head into the weekend.

GBP/USD rates dipped again during yesterday’s trading with a sustained move under 1.60 now looking likely in the short-term. The USD was boosted by better than expected US inflation data released yesterday and with question marks now hanging over the UK economic recovery, I do feel as if the USD is likely to gain further market support. Cable exchange rates have traded above 1.60 for so long that a correction is well overdue in my opinion and I wouldn’t be surprised to the USD put pressure back on 1.55 by Christmas.

Following the devastating events in Canada over the past days, which have reminded the world of the dangers we still face by terrorism, the focus has shifted away from their economy. RBC Governor Poloz cancelled a speech last night, as the country came to grips with the tragedy.

Looking at any knock on effects for their currency and GBP/CAD rates dipped during yesterday’s trading, despite the fact the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) interest decision came out as expected, with the central bank keeping their base interest rate on hold at 1%. Whilst this was widely anticipated their subsequent monetary policy statement indicated the Canadian economy was seeing ‘renewed vigour’ in consumer spending and the real estate market since July.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with you current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Retail sales tomorrow morning and growth figures on Friday to be key for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

Tomorrow morning we see the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K followed by GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures on Friday morning.

Retail Sales are expected to have dropped off a little and growth figures are due to show economic growth for the third quarter of 2014 to be at 0.7%.

Sterling has had a fairly flat week as far as currency movements go so these next few days may give us a grandstand finish.

If you are looking to exchange foreign currency in the next few days or indeed weeks then feel free to get in touch with me directly, even if you want a quick comparison to make sure you are getting the most for your money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally.

Sterling Sees Slight Rally Versus The Euro Today (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling has rallied back against the Euro this morning despite UK public borrowing increasing again.  10 year bond yields showed an improvement suggesting there is demand and we have the Bank of England Minutes tomorrow morning.  Indeed with US inflation and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision tomorrow if could be quite a busy day for currency transfers to North America, and have a big impact on global confidence.

I can’t see any additional members of the BofE MPC voting to join the two dissenting members to raise interest rates in the UK – if anything UK data has tailed off over the last month and with the Chief Economist of the Bank of England suggesting rates would go up in the middle of next year, sterling has been held back recently.  A surprise vote to hike could really provide a shot in the arm for the pound, however I think this is unlikely – sterling in my view is going to be reliant on more problems in Europe to see a big increase in the short term versus the single currency.

If you need to make a currency transfer, and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

UK Interest Rates to remain low (Tom Holian)

Sterling has fallen recently off the back of a lot of uncertainty within global markets as fears increase of slowing global growth, the impacts of Ebola and a UK interest rate hike being pushed back.

Sterling vs Euro ended the week above 1.26 as the Eurozone has also had its fair share of problems including Germany announcing big problems with their own growth statistics.

On Friday the chief economist at the Bank of England Andrew Haldane has suggested that interest rates are likely to remain low for ‘some time’ as fears increase over the disparity between wage inflation and growth. However, the good news is that he did say growth is set to be the fastest of any major economy this year which helped to boost Sterling against the Dollar and Euro.

The big problem for the Eurozone continues to be the worries about inflation. Currently the figure is at just 0.3% which means it will be difficult for growth on the continent. The ECB has also acted twice in the last two months firstly with a rate cut in September and more monetary easing this month. Suggestions are that this could carry on next month which is likely to cause Euro weakness against both the Pound and US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling news

  • October was always going to be a difficult month for the pound with economic news reflecting September’s Scottish Referendum which sapped business and consumer confidence. This week the dollar climbed to a one year high against the pound and the euro too recently hit a one month high against sterling as September’s Inflation data caused the pound to slide. This is I believe presenting a good short term opportunity to sell euros and dollars for the pound, if you have such a requirement please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy to help you maximise your exchange rate.
  • Ebola! The UK currently only has 28 beds for specifically treating Ebola infected patients. Were the virus to spread rapidly throughout the UK or Europe, public services would be under immense pressure and financial markets would become very volatile. The UK’s Chief Medical Officer has stated current protection for the UK is sufficient but with £125m pledged so far to fight the situation in Sierra Leone alone, the unknown cost and impact of the virus on the currency markets should not be underestimated. If you have an important transfer in the future it is always wise to consider every angle, please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan to keep up to date.
  • If the Ebola crisis really picks up I would expect the USD to strengthen and this could be very beneficial for anyone selling USD for the pound. The Euro might weaken in such a scenario and higher yielders like the Aussie and CAD might weaken too. For the latest news and information please contact me  on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Where Next for GBP Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for GBP exchange rates, with a negative trend developing against the EUR & USD. The Pound was performing well against the EUR, hitting a fresh two year high only a couple of weeks ago. However, as often happens the currency markets have proved their unpredictability and since that high we have seen the EUR make significant gains, strengthening by over 3 cents and providing EUR sellers with some much needed respite.

GBP/EUR have levelled out this morning and are currently floating around 1.25 on the exchange but personally I feel it will be difficult for the Pound to regain this lost ground, unless we find another catalyst which will push Sterling back up, or more likely in my opinion, further negative news that may drag the back EUR down. Whilst we are well aware of the on-going economic struggles inside the Eurozone, it did seem as if the UK economy was rising above this and our recovery was above expectations and at worst certainly on track. Last week’s negative comments by UK Chancellor George Osborne, along with very poor inflation figures earlier this week have started to shift market opinion and the Pound may now struggle to gain any momentum in the short-term.

GBP/USD rates have also levelled out this morning but once again the recent trend has been USD strength with Cable breaching the 1.60 barrier earlier this week, a defining statement in my opinion. I do believe a move back towards 1.55 is on the cards and as we move into 2015 I anticipate GBP/USD will continue to trade under 1.60.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

UK Unemployment Boosts Sterling (Colm Gilhooly)

UK unemployment has dropped again this morning helping sterling recover some of the ground it lost after yesterday’s weak inflation figure.  However it is unlikely to affect the longer term interest rate forecasts with most analysts predicting it will happen in Summer 2015 rather than Spring.  Sterling has had a bad couple of weeks but that is coming from a significant peak on the Euro, and a US Dollar that is finally beginning to find its feet as predicted a few months back.

We have US retail sales figures this afternoon which will have a big impact on the Dollar so Cable buyers should watch this closely.  A speech by Mario Draghi tonight may also have a big impact on the Euro- it looks increasingly likely that the ECB have to embark on a much wider asset purchase program to combat very low inflation which could spark more Euro weakness.  To this end anyone buying euro may want to hold on as sterling still has a chance to take advantage of this despite the negative trend of late.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

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