Category Archives: USD

Sterling Sees Slight Rally Versus The Euro Today (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling has rallied back against the Euro this morning despite UK public borrowing increasing again.  10 year bond yields showed an improvement suggesting there is demand and we have the Bank of England Minutes tomorrow morning.  Indeed with US inflation and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision tomorrow if could be quite a busy day for currency transfers to North America, and have a big impact on global confidence.

I can’t see any additional members of the BofE MPC voting to join the two dissenting members to raise interest rates in the UK – if anything UK data has tailed off over the last month and with the Chief Economist of the Bank of England suggesting rates would go up in the middle of next year, sterling has been held back recently.  A surprise vote to hike could really provide a shot in the arm for the pound, however I think this is unlikely – sterling in my view is going to be reliant on more problems in Europe to see a big increase in the short term versus the single currency.

If you need to make a currency transfer, and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Pound Sterling Forecast – The Week ahead for Sterling exchange rates (Daniel Wright)

There are plenty of points of interest for those following Sterling exchange rates this week so below is a summary of what lies ahead and how it may affect your rate of exchange this week. Please do remember that if you find our information useful then we do also carry out currency exchange for clients looking to buy or sell foreign property, businesses that have the need for foreign exchange and all sorts of different reasons so it is well worth getting in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by email on djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like access to award winning exchange rates and customer service.

Tomorrow is reasonably quiet for most major currencies similar to today, however for those following the Australian Dollar you should be aware that deputy Governor of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) speaking this morning at 09:55am which, depending on what he says may lead to a little market volatility for AUD exchange rates throughout the course of the morning. Overnight we saw a flurry of economic data from Chinas including growth figures which came out than expected and have indeed give the AUD a little already today.

Wednesday is when the data really starts to hot up and we have data that may affect GBP, USD, CAD, AUD and NZD rates of exchange so if you are looking to trade any of these currencies in the near future you need to make us aware so we can get in touch if there is a large movement. Feel free to email me Daniel Wright directly on djw@currencies.co.uk or to call us on 01494 787 478 so that we can act as your eyes and ears on the market and highlight any buying opportunities.

U.K starts the ball rolling at 09:30am with the Bank of England minutes from their last interest rate decision. The minutes will basically let us know how the 9 members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted at the latest decision in terms of interest rate change. Any change in favour the number of members voting in favour of an interest rate hike could give the Pound a boost and if we have fewer members opting for rates to rise, Sterling may drop substantially.

At 13:30pm we have inflation data from the States and expectations are for a slight drop from 1.7% to 1.6%. We may see a little Dollar weakness if inflation levels are any lower than this level, just like we saw a week ago for Sterling when rates plummeted following a much lower than expected CPI level.

Canada quite possibly has the most to offer in terms of economic data on Wednesday with Retail Sales, Interest rate decision, rate statement and a press conference all out between 13:30pm and 16:15pm. Retail Sales are expected to have improved slightly which may push the Canadian Dollar back down toward the 1.80 level but do be cautious that with the rate statement and during the press conference a dip may be temporary as any negative comments could knock the Canadian Dollar straight back down again.

The Antipodean currencies then take center stage with Governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens speaking at 22:00pm and inflation data coming out for New Zealand at 22:45pm. Both of these data releases are out overnight any many regular readers will remember it was only a short period of time ago that the RBA Governor commented that he felt the AUD was overvalued which led to sharp movements for the Australian Dollar overnight. If you are looking to buy or sell AUD or NZD then it may be prudent to look at one of our various contract types including a limit order or stop loss, contact me to find out how these options work.

Sterling then takes the reigns for the rest of the week with Retail Sales figures due on Thursday morning and GDP (Gross Domestic product) data due on Friday morning. Expectations are for Retail Sales to have dropped off a little and for our growth figures also to have retracted ever so slightly which may give the pound a tough end to the week.

If you would like to make the very most of your money then it is extremely important you have a proactive broker on your side with access to great rates of exchange. Feel free to contact me direct by email djw@currencies.co.uk or calling 01494 787 478 and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

 

UK Interest Rates to remain low (Tom Holian)

Sterling has fallen recently off the back of a lot of uncertainty within global markets as fears increase of slowing global growth, the impacts of Ebola and a UK interest rate hike being pushed back.

Sterling vs Euro ended the week above 1.26 as the Eurozone has also had its fair share of problems including Germany announcing big problems with their own growth statistics.

On Friday the chief economist at the Bank of England Andrew Haldane has suggested that interest rates are likely to remain low for ‘some time’ as fears increase over the disparity between wage inflation and growth. However, the good news is that he did say growth is set to be the fastest of any major economy this year which helped to boost Sterling against the Dollar and Euro.

The big problem for the Eurozone continues to be the worries about inflation. Currently the figure is at just 0.3% which means it will be difficult for growth on the continent. The ECB has also acted twice in the last two months firstly with a rate cut in September and more monetary easing this month. Suggestions are that this could carry on next month which is likely to cause Euro weakness against both the Pound and US Dollar.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling news

  • October was always going to be a difficult month for the pound with economic news reflecting September’s Scottish Referendum which sapped business and consumer confidence. This week the dollar climbed to a one year high against the pound and the euro too recently hit a one month high against sterling as September’s Inflation data caused the pound to slide. This is I believe presenting a good short term opportunity to sell euros and dollars for the pound, if you have such a requirement please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy to help you maximise your exchange rate.
  • Ebola! The UK currently only has 28 beds for specifically treating Ebola infected patients. Were the virus to spread rapidly throughout the UK or Europe, public services would be under immense pressure and financial markets would become very volatile. The UK’s Chief Medical Officer has stated current protection for the UK is sufficient but with £125m pledged so far to fight the situation in Sierra Leone alone, the unknown cost and impact of the virus on the currency markets should not be underestimated. If you have an important transfer in the future it is always wise to consider every angle, please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and ask to speak with me Jonathan to keep up to date.
  • If the Ebola crisis really picks up I would expect the USD to strengthen and this could be very beneficial for anyone selling USD for the pound. The Euro might weaken in such a scenario and higher yielders like the Aussie and CAD might weaken too. For the latest news and information please contact me  on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Where Next for GBP Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for GBP exchange rates, with a negative trend developing against the EUR & USD. The Pound was performing well against the EUR, hitting a fresh two year high only a couple of weeks ago. However, as often happens the currency markets have proved their unpredictability and since that high we have seen the EUR make significant gains, strengthening by over 3 cents and providing EUR sellers with some much needed respite.

GBP/EUR have levelled out this morning and are currently floating around 1.25 on the exchange but personally I feel it will be difficult for the Pound to regain this lost ground, unless we find another catalyst which will push Sterling back up, or more likely in my opinion, further negative news that may drag the back EUR down. Whilst we are well aware of the on-going economic struggles inside the Eurozone, it did seem as if the UK economy was rising above this and our recovery was above expectations and at worst certainly on track. Last week’s negative comments by UK Chancellor George Osborne, along with very poor inflation figures earlier this week have started to shift market opinion and the Pound may now struggle to gain any momentum in the short-term.

GBP/USD rates have also levelled out this morning but once again the recent trend has been USD strength with Cable breaching the 1.60 barrier earlier this week, a defining statement in my opinion. I do believe a move back towards 1.55 is on the cards and as we move into 2015 I anticipate GBP/USD will continue to trade under 1.60.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

UK Unemployment Boosts Sterling (Colm Gilhooly)

UK unemployment has dropped again this morning helping sterling recover some of the ground it lost after yesterday’s weak inflation figure.  However it is unlikely to affect the longer term interest rate forecasts with most analysts predicting it will happen in Summer 2015 rather than Spring.  Sterling has had a bad couple of weeks but that is coming from a significant peak on the Euro, and a US Dollar that is finally beginning to find its feet as predicted a few months back.

We have US retail sales figures this afternoon which will have a big impact on the Dollar so Cable buyers should watch this closely.  A speech by Mario Draghi tonight may also have a big impact on the Euro- it looks increasingly likely that the ECB have to embark on a much wider asset purchase program to combat very low inflation which could spark more Euro weakness.  To this end anyone buying euro may want to hold on as sterling still has a chance to take advantage of this despite the negative trend of late.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

U.K inflation data weakens Sterling in morning trading (Daniel Wright)

Inflation data released this morning for the U.K has led to a drop in the value of the Pound as figures came out much lower than expectations.

The worry was that inflation figures may have dropped off a little however the actual figure released was a lot lower than had been predicted.

Lower inflation will lead to the potential of an interest rate hike being put back a little further and an interest rate hike generally is seen as positive for the currency concerned and with the markets moving on speculation as well as firm economic releases.

We have also seen the Euro weaken off lately and the reason for this is extremely low inflation figures leading to the risk of deflation, one of the ways they are looking at to combat this is by introducing QE (Quantitative Easing) which as many regular readers will know generally is seen as very negative for the currency concerned as it is essentially printing more money and injecting it into the economy.

We still have quite a busy week ahead with a few interesting points of note including unemployment figures for the U.K tomorrow (predicted to have improved to 6.1%) and U.S Retail sales figures tomorrow afternoon. For those with an interest in the Euro you should be aware of President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speaking at 8:00am tomorrow morning which could move Euro exchange rates in advance of trading lines opening.

if you have a currency transfer to carry out in the coming  days, weeks or indeed months then it may be prudent to contact me directly as the company I work for has not only won awards for our exchange rates but also our customer service. You can contact me directly on  Djw@currencies.co.uk please leave a contact number and a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be happy to get in touch.

Eurozone Slowdown Will Affect UK Economic Recovery (Matthew Vassallo)

UK Chancellor George Osborne has issued a warning that the UK economic recovery will be affected by the slow down inside the Eurozone. This announcement is likely to have a knock on effect for the Pound, which may now struggle to regain the highs witnessed against the EUR last week. GBP had pushed up to a fresh two year high against the single currency last week but has since seen its market position slide, as the single currency found support and realigned back under 1.27 this week.

Looking ahead and the key question now, where next for GBP/EUR exchange rates? Personally feel it will be difficult for GBP to breach the two year high witnessed last week under the current market conditions and it may well be that the markets are now waiting for the next key economic decision before making another decisive move. I think we are more likely to see GBP/EUR back around 1.25, than we are to see a move back up towards 1.30, so I would certainly be considering my position if I had an upcoming EUR purchase around the current levels.

Despite the positive moves seen for the USD over recent weeks the US Federal Reserve (FED) were keen to dampen hopes of an interest rate hike anytime soon. This news is likely to temper any further aggressive moves for the USD over the coming days, as it was anticipated that the FED were likely to raise interest rates before the Bank of England (BoE).

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates on Hold (Tom Holian)

The Bank of England has again kept UK interest rates on hold this month and chose not to extend the amount of QE which currently stands at £375bn. My personal feeling is that we will not see a rate rise until after the election due in May.

Even though the BoE are independent I think that it will be very difficult for them to change rates in the run up to next year’s election. With inflation in the UK having fallen recently it means the BoE is less likely to change interest rates anytime soon.

Indeed, British policymakers appear to be looking cautiously at the performance of the Eurozone which could have a negative effect on the British economy if that continues tro slowdown. The Eurozone is the largest partner for the UK so if Sterling remains at these levels it is less attractive for Europe to trade goods and services from the UK.

In my opinion the Federal Reserve is the most likely central bank to increase rates first and I think this will come within the next 6 months if the US economy continues to gain momentum.

This could see US Dollar strength which then creates Euro weakness providing British clients with excellent opportunities to buy Euros which are still very close to a 2 year high.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Is Sterling Losing Its Shine? (Colm Gilhooly)

Some of the shine has come off the pound lately as UK data is still good but probably not strong enough to suggest the economy is going from strength to strength.  House price figures overnight showed an increase, and the NIESR, who produce unofficial UK GDP data, suggest the UK economy grew by 0.7% which although hardly sets the world on fire, still suggests the UK is heading in the right direction.

However behind the headline figure there are still areas of concern that have been enough to cause sterling to falter.  UK Manufacturing figures showed just a 0.1% increase with a big slow down in August in the auto sector, and there are still a lot of signs that the UK economy needs rebalancing.  Indeed, the reason Moodys downgraded the UK’s AAA status was sluggish growth forecasts and no sign the government will meet its own deficit reduction targets.  With an election next year there is bound to be some uncertainty over the economic plans for the UK.

One to watch tonight will be Aussie jobs data and the US FOMC minutes, with the former having the potential to cause big swings due to a smaller population, and the later likely to have an impact on global monetary policy and currency values in general.

With all this in mind I feel current GBP USD and GBP EUR rates represent very good value, and have partly relied on previous Dollar and Euro weakness rather than just sterling strength.  It may well be worth considering buying your currency now, or forward booking your exchange rate.  If you need to make a currency transfer, and want to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work.

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