Category Archives: USD

Will the pound fall or rise next week?

Next week could be a very challenging time for sterling exchange rates! We will enter the month of April, the month before the UK’s General election. This event is widely predicted to cause GBP losses and anyone buying or selling the pound should really take stock of the excellent improvements in their favour this year.

The pound has struggled in recent weeks as the prospect of raising interest rates by the Bank of England moves out further. Lower Inflation has meant there is less need to raise interest rates and comments by Andy Haldane, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates may need to fall rather than raise did little for confidence this week. Hence the reason GBP rates fell this week.

Mark Carney turned the coin over with comments an interest rate hike was in fact more likely, hence GBP strength today. Such volatility underlining the sensitivity markets can have to comments and economic data. On the whole the pound is up at multi year highs against the Euro, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Rand. The only currency the pound is struggling against is the US dollar!

All in all the exchange rate is likely to fall next month at some point owing to the uncertainty of the election. This will impact both buyers and sellers of the pound so making plans in advance is in my opinion sensible. For more information on all of your options please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Cameron vs Miliband – Exchange Rate Forecast – ( Andrew Bromley )

Euro buyers had a shock window of opportunity yesterday evening, with that window still currently slightly open…

After poor UK export data this week analysts have predicted an artificial weakening of the Pound, in order to kick-start sales of goods to our Eurozone counterparts. As the Euro has been the weakest major currency and our key trading partner – we’ve suffered as a result. Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) is in Frankfurt this morning, discussing all things debt. Although no surprises have surfaced, Carney has mentioned that he thinks the next Interest rate move will be an increase, strengthening the Pound.

I personally would be inclined to take advantage of this spike, as the short to medium term future for the Pound looks bleak. Cameron vs Miliband last night shows a genuine start to the political timeline, with the pound expected to start falling shortly. Parliament breaks for the Election from next week so expect the slander to begin!

 

The US Dollar has had a very rocky past week, as speculation is still rife for both a summer and autumn interest rate hike! Janet Yellen (Chair of the US Federal Reserve) indicated that an April rate hike wouldn’t happen, however couldn’t rule out a hike in June. I personally think that the overwhelming direction for the Dollar is positive – good news for Dollar sellers!

If you’d like to take advantage of the current market positions, even if you don’t have full funds available now, I can help! Booking your exchange rate for say a property purchase in the future can be a very wise thing to do, as the last thing you want is for the market to crash and you can’t afford the house! Feel free to contact me on 01494 787 478 or email me directly AJB@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling’s Value Continues to Fall (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling’s value has fallen this week against almost every major currency and it now looks like we have seen the end of the recent GBP momentum. Only a couple of weeks ago the Pound hit a fresh 8 year high against the EUR, sitting at over 1.42 on the exchange. However, a poor run of economic data, including weak Manufacturing and worse than expected unemployment figures, has halted the Pound’s rise and pushed GBP/EUR rates down by over 6 cents from the recent high.

Whilst I always felt that a realignment was likely, this week’s move has been extremely aggressive and proves how fickle the currency markets can be. It is likely that the recent talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras & German Chancellor Angela Merkel have helped ease pressure on the EUR, with both now agreeing the Greece needs structural reforms if it going to continue as part of the single union.

We also need to remember the Bank of England’s (BoE) stance on the matter, as they have become concerned about how the Pound’s rising value would negatively affect UK exports. These fears were confirmed recently with UK factory orders falling to a 2 year low. The central bank have already indicated we will not be seeing a UK interest rate hike any time soon and I now feel it is unlikely that GBP/EUR rates will move back through 1.40 in the short-term.

Looking ahead and UK Retail Sales figures are released tomorrow and are expected to show an improvement. This could help the Pound find some support, although if figures are worse than expected then I anticipate the Pound’s slide to continue.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling exchange rate movements today – Quiet week for economic data this week (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost our sincere condolences to anyone involved in the air crash today, always deeply saddening to hear such news.

Regarding currency, we have seen another fairly stable day for Sterling against the Euro and Dollar yet with fairly sharp drops against the Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.

We saw inflation figures out earlier this morning which immediately knocked the Pound as inflation dropped to a rather concerning 0% against market expectations of dropping down to 0.1%.

The inflation issue remains a concern for the Bank of England, along with the fact that Manufacturing figures at the start of the week showing the U.k manufacturing levels are really down.

This may be partially down to the fact that Sterling has been so strong against the Euro of late which has possibly led to European clients of U.K businesses seeking to buy their goods and services from elsewhere in Europe instead of from the U.K as Sterling is just so expensive for them.

With this in mind it is no surprise that the 1.40 level for GBP/EUR did not stick around for long and although there are many problems still within Europe I personally still do not see Sterling gaining significant ground against the Euro in the coming weeks, so if you have a pending requirement to buy Euros for your business or to purchase a property overseas then it may be prudent to look at making a purchase soon rather than potentially seeing another boat of opportunity sail away.

If you have the need to exchange any currency in the coming days, weeks or months then it is key to have a proactive and efficient currency broker on your side for it. The company we work for has won awards both for our exchange rates and customer service so even if you are already set up with a broker it may be well worth you getting in touch with me directly and should save you money.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Exchange Rate Forecast – USD Forecast – Currency News ( Andrew Bromley )

Greece Making The Headlines Again

German Chancellor Angela Merkel met yesterday evening with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to discuss the Greek Debt. It is clear that even though extension to certain bailout payments have been granted, Greece is still struggling financially and is pulling out even the most drastic measures to change that. There are on-going reports that With the Greek Bailout situation potentially back in the limelight, Euro buyers should ensure that they are watching their position.

 

GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

UK Factory Orders yesterday showed a reduction to the lowest figure for 24 months, confirming fears that exports are starting to struggle. The main factor for the reduced figures is the strong pound over the weak Euro, meaning Eurozone partners are being priced out of the market. Factory output is currently reported as being at 2008 levels – a serious cause for concern.  We have seen in the past the BOE (Bank of England) act swiftly to boost export opportunities by ‘talking down’ the value of Sterling. I therefore wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Carney (BOE Governor) make this move sooner rather than later to bring the Pound down – potentially in his address on Friday at 08:45. UK ‘Consumer Price Index’ (Inflation) figures are released at 09:30 today and again a slight reduction is expected. Inflation is moving further and further from the target of 2.0%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pound weaken due to the impact of lower Oil prices, so ensure that you are ready to act swiftly if you haven’t already!

The overwhelming point to consider for anyone holding Sterling is that we are about to enter potentially the most volatile trading period for 5 years. The UK General Election is wide open with an outcome incredibly hard to predict. A hung parliament is a distinct possibility – the last hung-parliament carried huge losses for the Pound. Parliament is set to break for ‘recess’ on Monday 30th March, so expect the Politicians to then hit the campaign trail with vengeance!

 

Australian Dollars at Record Short Term Lows

The Aussie has seen a huge backing following the US Dollar weakening this weekend. As the old saying goes, ‘When the US sneezes, the World catches a cold’, very definitely the case here. US Dollar investors will buy Australian Dollar bonds as the potential returns are greater, meaning the influx of funds strengthens the currency. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia have stated on several occasions that they will act to avoid the currency becoming overvalued, generally by cutting Interest Rates. Therefore, if you are selling AUD I’d do so sooner father than later. If you’re buying, get in contact to make sure that you are ready to take advantage of a spike…

USD Forecast – What to Expect for the Rest of the Week

Following last week’s bold move in to the mid-1.40s, Dollar buyers have had a slight improvement. Janet Yellen (Chair of the US Federal Reserve) stated that, ‘Policy makers aren’t rushing to raise Interest rates’.  This has subsequently seen the Dollar lose the gains made, and puts a big focus on to data releases this week. This afternoon the US releases Inflation data (12:30) and tomorrow afternoon Durable goods figures (also 12:30). The week is capped off on Friday afternoon with the US Gross Domestic Product figure so all in all still a very busy week for the Greenback.

 

New Zealand Dollar – When will we see 2.0 again?

The New Zealand Dollar has seen a huge improvement over the last 30 day (as noted in the above table), gaining back roughly 10 Cents against the Pound. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced on 12th March that Interest rates were not going to be cut on this occasion, and more recently a primary Kiwi Bank (NAB) have been very ‘bullish’ in their Exchange Rate forecast. NAB has indicated that due to good returns harvested from investing in NZD, the NZ Dollar should have a period of strength. However, this should be seen as a window, rather than the norm. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler has the power to halt a rampant Kiwi Dollar by cutting Interest Rates so I don’t think it will be too long until a return north of the 2.0 mark is seen. If you are Selling Kiwi it may be worth making a move…

Please feel free to contact me direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 – please quote this blog and ask for me – Andrew Bromley. Alternatively, email me on AJB@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Pound Weak Against Euro – Dollar Weakened – Currency Forecast – Andrew Bromley

The Pound has suffered today against the Euro, as markets anticipate movement ahead of Mario Draghis announcement at 14:00. Draghi (Governor of the Eurozone Central Bank) is up in front of the Eurozone ‘Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs’. Draghi will be recapping the implementation of Quantitative Easing, plus a general overview of Eurozone Finances. These statements often have a big impact of exchange rates, so tread carefully! The remainder of the day for the Euro has Euro consumer confidence figures at 15:00, followed by a meeting between Angela Merkel and Alexis Tsipras. Merkel and Tsipras plan to trash out yet more finer details on the Greek bailout so an impact on Euro trading tomorrow AM could be seen.

The US Dollar lost some of it’s gains last week, following many predictions that the Interest Rate hike could be delayed until September. USD holders should be cautious of short term movements due to speculation and data announcements, as realistically the longer term outlook is for further USD strength. Therefore if the market spikes to 1.50 and above this could be an excellent time to purchase the Greenback. If I were looking to sell Dollars in the short to medium term, I’d be inclined to act when markets push towards the 1.45 region. We saw this level nearly happen last week when poor UK employment figures, so with a strong Dollar in the build up to the UK General Election, this should be achievable. The remainder of the week for the pair has UK and US Inflation figures tomorrow, US Durable Goods figures on Wednesday and the US Gross Domestic Product reading on Friday.

If you have an exchange requirement and would like to discuss in more depth, please feel free to either email me AJB@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 – It is worth quoting this blog and my name Andrew Bromley – this will ensure you are dealt with on the best possible ledger!

Andrew Bromley

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Volatile (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling exchange rates have remained volatile throughout the trading week, following some key data releases for the UK & abroad. GBP/EUR rates have dipped again during Friday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.3768 at the low. The Pound had started to gain further momentum earlier this week but with UK unemployment coming out worse than expected, it was quickly halted in its tracks.

The latest UK budget was also announced this week and whilst I’m sure it will continue to be dissected over the coming days, the general consensus was positive and it certainly has reinforced the belief that the UK economy is continuing its recovery at a steady pace. Growth forecasts have been improved for next year and 2016 and the positive feeling is likely to continue into the second quarter of this year.

However, despite this positivity the Pound has failed to improve on the high of last week and we are now in fact trading  almost 5 cents lower than the high of last week, a key indication to me that Sterling’s recent momentum is slowing. I feel the Pound will now struggle to break back above 1.40 in the short-term, with the BoE keen to control Sterling’s value for fear of alienating our trade partners. It is also likely that we are seeing a general realignment following a sustained rise for the Pound and for this reason I would be very tempted to consider my position around the current levels if I had EUR to purchase over the coming weeks.

It’s been a busy week for Cable exchange rates with the latest FED interest rate decision and monetary policy statements.  The FED modified their stance on interest rates during their statement, although their base has remained unchanged for the time being. They removed the word ‘patience’ from their regular statement, language that was seen as an indication that a rate change would not be seen for at least a few months.

There was a huge amount of volatility on GBP/USD rates during the decision and subsequent statement, with Sterling hitting a high of 1.5068, before falling back sharply by almost two cents.

The FED still said that it wants to see ‘further improvement’ in the US labour market before raising their base rate but it does now seem this is far more likely to happen in the US before we see the BoE do something similar in the UK.

Despite this more positive outlook Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen did not commit to any specific timeline and sceptics may argue this statement does not tell us anything new. However, considering the weak run of data that came out of the US recently, including poor Retail Sales figures, many analysts will argue this is the first step towards a US rate hike over the coming months.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Important News for GBPEUR buyers and sellers in the next 24 hours!

Tomorrow is the UK budget and some Unemployment data which could mean some volatility. Rates have already dropped due to comments by the Bank of England Governor the pound is overvalued. The ray of hope would be tomorrow night’s US Federal Reserve meeting where we will learn more about the prospect of the US raising their base interest rate. One driver of Euro weakness has been USD strength. As the USD strengthens much of the funds are arriving from the Euro (as EURUSD is the most heavily traded currency pairing) and this means further USD strength should mean more Euro weakness.

So if you are prepared to risk further losses holding on for later in the week is an option, if you are concerned and would be upset at it dropping further moving sooner is probably best. Longer term the UK election seems likely to cause GBP weakness and current levels are significantly improved from the last few weeks, months and years. In my opinion therefore representing an excellent buy opportunity.

Is this useful? I am very confident I can save you money over other brokers and the banks. Registering takes a minute online and we can be quoting you a live price to buy your currency within minutes of you contacting us. Even a small difference on the price you receive from your broker could be a big difference in the currency you receive. Please email me jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more!

Exchange Rate Forecast – Pound Drops to 1.39s – UK Budget Build Up ( Andrew Bromley )

GBP-EUR

The Pound hit a short term low today of 1.3956 as the Euro kicked back following a positive response to Quantitative Easing. It has been confirmed that €9.751 Billion was successfully invested in week one, showing the markets how much faith the Eurozone Central Bank have in its collective economies. With the UK Budget announced on Wednesday, I’d expect a very rocky build up followed by a short period of Sterling strength. I personally believe that this is George Osborne’s best chance to assist David Cameron in convincing undecided voters to choose Tory. As the Tories are the party most likely to grow the economy, the Pound should prosper. However, markets will be over-analysing every aspect of the Budget, so there is no guarantee to stability. Some Market Analysts are predicting major Sterling weakness from Wednesday, as realistically it is the first big move for any party. Watch this space is an understatement – make sure that your position in the market is secure!

USD Forecast

Those that have not sold Dollars just yet could be in for a rocky road this week, as there are several key events to be wary of. Following todays poor US manufacturing figures, the next milestone is housing figures at 12:30 tomorrow afternoon. Every piece of US Data is massively scrutinised at the moment, with the aim of second guessing the next US Interest Rate hike. Predictions are for Q2 / Q3, so we are nearing the event swiftly. The Federal Open Market Meeting (FOMC) Minutes are released late Wednesday evening (following the UK Budget), so clues may be contained then as to when…

I personally have predicted GBP USD slipping to the 1.45 mark and below. The current 20 month low is 1.4750 so with either positive FOMC minutes or an unpopular Budget, this is a real possibility. That being said, rates are at incredibly favourable levels currently. Only you can decide if the risk of GBP strength is worth the reward of yet further improvements in the rate…

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk – I am more than happy to run through your requirement with you. Alternatively, call the direct line to the trading floor – 01494 787 478

Andrew Bromley

 

Are GBP/EUR Rates Heading Back Below 1.40? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling spiked towards a fresh 8 year high against the EUR earlier this week, with rates moving through 1.42 at the high. The Pounds’ recent momentum has shown no real signs of slowing but this trend will not last for ever, despite the aggressive move we’ve seen for GBP since the turn of the year. Market conditions can change rapidly and with the European Central Bank (ECB) having already laid out their plan for aggressive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE) up until 2016, it will be interesting to note how the markets react to this moving forward. We need not forget that the UK economy was injected with aggressive rounds of monetary stimulus at a time when our economic recovery was slowing and it has the desired effect. Any similar outcome for the Eurozone is likely to see the EUR snap back and when it does, the current highs are likely to look very attractive.

In my opinion it does feel as if Sterling is riding the crest of a wave but with far more scope for improvement on the EUR side, when consider recent market history, then it could be playing a dangerous game assuming this ride will last indefinitely. I don’t anticipate any sustained run for the EUR under current market conditions but I do feel the EUR will gain support sooner rather than later and a move back below 1.40 is likely over the coming weeks.

It is a fairly quiet day in terms of economic data for the UK, although Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney is speaking later today and any insight into the BoE’s stance and upcoming targets, are likely to cause additional volatility on GBP exchange rates.

We can offer various contract options, including forward contracts and limit orders, which are designed to maximise the market value and protect clients form future negative moves in the market.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

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