Category Archives: USD
Italian Referendum causes the Pound to strengthen
On Sunday we saw Sterling gain strength following the result of the Italian referendum. Matteo Renzi has made the decision to resign following much needed reform failing to be passed. With Italian bad bank loans in excess of €360bn, Renzi was prepared to provide support. With Italian politics in limbo and the new government not necessarily sharing Renzi’s willingness to help the potential for pressure on these banks has caused investors to lose faith in the Euro and move elsewhere. GBP/EUR briefly broke 1.20 providing the best levels for selling Sterling in several months.
Despite the pound falling slightly since these highs it may still be wise to take advantage of current levels. With trade negotiations post Brexit still shrouded in uncertainty the pound could be headed for sharp falls. The Supreme Court Judgement relating to whether the government will get a vote on the triggering of article 50 will be being broadcast live, traders could be ready to move in an instant news is released and could cause volatility on the market.
Data Releases of Consequence
European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision 8th December
On Thursday we will see the ECB interest rate decision, although I expect to see no movement in interest rates. Draghi will be under pressure to divulge his plans on Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone in a bid to stave off deflation. The current program is due to end in March. The program is currently not having the desired affect, but were it to be removed deflation becomes a very real possibility which could be catastrophic for the Euro. Draghi will surely lengthen the program and could possibly increase monthly increments which could create an opportunity for Euro buyers.
US Interest Rate Decision 14th December
The 14th December brings the US interest decision. We have recently seen very positive figures from manufacturing and unemployment. Janet Yellen’s position as FED Chair is also being threatened by Trump for her lack of rate hikes so I would be surprised not to see a raise in rates. This will largely have filtered into GBP/USD rates, but once it is confirmed I would still expect Dollar strength. If you are buying dollars I would be tempted to move at current levels.
UK Consumer Inflation Expectations Friday 9th December
Although only an estimate, with the value of Sterling so low, manufacturers and retailers alike will be hiking their prices due to the increased costs of goods bought abroad, which will be passed on to the consumer. There is expected to be a significant rise in inflation so this release could move Sterling value.
If you have a currency requirement it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade will make a huge difference to your return during such volatile times, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at email@example.com. Thank you for reading my blog.
So another referendum is due to happen this weekend, this time over in Italy. Unlike the recent one in the U.K this is not a vote to leave the EU but a vote on constitutional reform.
This is extremely key as it may result in another heavy bout of uncertainty for Italy should the vote got the wrong way for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has already warned that should the vote go against him and stop him from making certain changes that he feels he need to make then he would be looking to step down.
We already have various economic issues for Italy, most notably the banks who appear to be struggling and walking a bit of a tightrope, so should we then see huge political uncertainty added to Italian woes then the Euro may have a bad start to next week and you may potentially see GBP/EUR exchange rates go above 1.20 again in trading early next week.
Considering exchange rates against the Euro were lingering around the 1.10 mark merely a few weeks ago, anyone looking to buy Euros must be looking at the markets with a small smirk on their face as their pending purchase has got a lot cheaper recently.
Sunday night/Monday morning will be the next point of interest for anyone with a Euro interest and with so many other large decisions pending within Europe over the next few months I firmly believe the next 12 months are going to be extremely testing for the Euro.
We cannot forget there is also an election in Austria this weekend too with the far right party holding a great chance of success, causing more issues politically within the area.
All of these referendums and elections will impact all major currencies as we will see alterations in global attitude to risk, so the perceived ‘riskier’ currencies such as the AUD, NZD and ZAR may lose strength and those that are perceived as safer havens may gain ground if results cause uncertainty.
If you have any currency to exchange, no matter where you are based then we can help you out here. Should you wish to have a friendly, proactive and experienced broker on your side then we always welcome new clients to get in touch. I have personally been assisting clients moving money overseas and bringing money back for nearly 10 years so you can be confident that your transaction will be dealt with smoothly, securely and at the best rate of exchange.
Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on firstname.lastname@example.org should you be in this position and I will be more than happy to contact you personally. I look forward to speaking with you.
It was another volatile day for Sterling yesterday, with the Pound spiking up to a high of 1.1956, before retracting back towards 1.18 by close of European trading.
The Pound received another welcome boost following apparent comments made by Boris Johnson, regarding the free movement of people within the UK following our upcoming Brexit. This immediately gave the Pound market support, with GBP/EUR rates spiking off the back of it. Johnson was quick to speak out against this and claimed he had in fact never made the statement and the Pound lost value as quickly as it had gained it.
There were further comments made by Brexit secretary who clarified the government’s stance to some extent, by claiming the UK would consider contributing to the EU budget in order to guarantee the best possible access for goods and services to Europe. This more official statement is likely to help support the Pound over the coming days but whether it is enough to push GBP/EUR rates back towards the 1.20 mark is unclear.
Yesterday’s rates were the best in over three months for those clients holding GBP and I’m still of the opinion that clients should be looking at these short-term improvements as a window of opportunity. I’m still not convinced that any further Sterling strength will be sustainable under current market conditions, with so much uncertainty still engulfing the UK economy. We still have no clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit and with the high court ruling in regards to the triggering of Article 50 still to be ratified by the Supreme Court, who knows what the state of play will be, come the start of 2017.
Sterling has gained over 4 cents in the past few weeks, which on a £100,000 GBP/EUR exchange would be the equivalent of an additional 4000 EUR and considering how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors, this could the opportunity clients have been waiting for.
For the more risk adverse this month’s Italian referendum could put additional pressure of the Eurozone economy. If the Italian public vote NO to the reforms then current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to step down, which could pave the way for the far right party to gain support. This would increase the likelihood of a another referendum on Italy’s future participation in the EU and the EUR could come under pressure as a result.
If you have an upcoming GBP currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.
If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com
The Pound has gained vs the Euro and the US Dollar after mortgage approvals in the UK jumped to over 67,5000 from the estimate of 65,000. This shows that even in the wake of the Brexit vote people are still borrowing and it highlights that the UK economy is still doing well in spite of the vote to leave the European Union back in June.
The good news about UK mortgage approvals is that it is a good indicator as to the overall health of an economy and one of the first sectors to fall in an economic downturn.
Over the weekend we could see a huge amount of volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates when the Italians hold their own referendum on Sunday regarding constitutional reform.
The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suggested that he might step down if the vote does not go his way and political uncertainty often has a big negative impact so if the vote goes the wrong way for Renzi we could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.
Other European countries are going to the polls next year including France and with the right wing Marine Le Pen gaining 20% of the vote according to some recent polls this could see things changing on the continent politically next year.
If you’re in the process of selling your property in France or Spain and are worried about the Euro going in the wrong direction it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future for a small deposit.
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank and also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Pound Sterling Forecast
Since Philip Hammond’s Autumn statement we have seen the Pound rally against the majority of major currencies. Hammond delivered a realistic , non dramatic statement but made it clear he will be attempting to make Britain resilient to any problems that come from a possible exit from the EU.
The pound has hit new buoyancy levels against the majors, but I am not convinced Sterling will continue to rise in value. We have the Supreme Court Judgement which will determine whether the government will get the final say on the triggering of Article 50 which will officially start the process of Britain exiting the EU. Scotland also may get involved, the argument that Scotland will be impacted by the decision bears credibility.
If the decision is that the government will have their say then the possibility of a soft Brexit becomes more likely, this should strengthen the Pound, but will elongate the exit process and Theresa May’s target of leaving the EU by the end of March could well be pushed back. If you are looking to sell the Pound you may wish to consider moving before this event.
Pound to US Dollar exchange rates in detail
The key upcoming event for the US is the interest rate decision on 14th December. Janet Yellen the head of the Federal Reserve indicated at the end of last year that there would be several rate hikes in 2016, but none have yet to materialise. Although the FED is meant to act as a separate entity to the government, the political uncertainty created around who would win the presidency may have been a factor in keeping rates on hold.
Trump has been highly critical of Yellen’s unwillingness to hike rates and has gone as far to threaten her with a more bullish replacement. This could well force Yellen’s hand on December 14th and there is a high probability of a rise in interest rates. If you are buying US Dollars it may be wise to move before the interest rate decision. Keep an eye on Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday as this event is notorious for it’s unpredictability and ability to move markets.
Pound to Euro exchange rates in detail
With current levels close to 1.18, a near two month high it is tempting to perform your trade if you are selling Sterling with the Supreme Court judgement and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision early in December. Many econimists are predicting that Mario Draghi the Head of the ECB will let slip his plans for future Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping moneyinto an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB is currently injecting €80bn a month into the Eurozone. The current program is due to end in March, but with little change of inflation I would be surprised to see QE not continue. There is also the possibility of an increase in monthly increments. If news does filter through on 8th December this could be what the gambling Sterling seller could have been waiting for.
If you have a currency trade it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital, If you have an experienced broker on board they can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free individual trading strategy. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better almost every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at email@example.com. Thank you for reading my blog.
Executive Dealer – Foreign Currency Direct PLC
Over the past seven years we have had many clients contact us to see if we can assist them both with the timing of their currency exchange, but also with saving money over their bank or other currency brokerages.
All of the writers here work for one of the largest brokerages in the U.K and between us we have over 70 years experience of helping people send money overseas or bring money back for property purchases, property sales, business transactions or any other reason that involves a currency exchange.
We do not deal with holiday money or cash transactions unfortunately but we do pride ourselves on the very highest level of customer service along with seriously good rates of exchange.
Most of our traders have been doing this longer than our competitors have existed, so by contacting us here at Pound Sterling Forecast you can have the peace of mind that not only will you get a great rate, but your transaction will be handled smoothly and efficiently by a team that know exactly what they are doing.
We love providing our regular readers with up to date and important market information on this site and welcome all new enquiries with a personal response as soon as we possibly can.
Looking at the economic calendar we are fairly thin on the ground for data over the next few days as the month ends but do be wary as you can see fairly large swings for currencies as you near the end of the month as larger corporations net off positions and we start to see month end flows.
If you would like to be kept fully up to date with market movements or you would like to save money on any pending currency exchange you have then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) personally on firstname.lastname@example.org and I will be more than happy to give you a call or reply to you email and answer any questions or queries that you may have. I look forward to speaking with you.
Like clockwork speculative trading on Friday has attacked some of the Pound’s heavy gains against the Euro and the Australian Dollar in particular over the past 3 weeks.
After breaching fresh 10 week highs just on Thursday, the Pound was hit on two fronts on Friday.
Firstly, harsh words from the Maltese Prime Minister about the upcoming negotiations with the EU were enough to upset a clearly hypsersensitve market at the moment.
Sterling recouped some of those losses when it was quite clear it was an overreaction to those comments. Though you can’t blame investors for jumping the gun…the last time a few leaders from the Eurozone made comments like that it was the beginning of October and it caused a flash crash on the Pound, with GBP/EUR falling 4 cents as an example.
Following this, the rollercoaster continued for buying Euro and Dollar rates, and the reasoning points to worrying expectations for exchange rates in the latter part of next month.
Profit taking and protective trading will likely see the Pound undercut quite heavily as markets relieve themselves of riskier currencies ahead of the Christmas period when trading winds down. Essentially many traders are not at their desks so will likely buy up ‘safe haven’ currencies such as the Swiss Franc and US Dollar to avoid coming back to work in January to see hard earned profits lost.
The expected mass sell off of Sterling is why companies and individuals are already planning to protect themselves during this period.
A more muted version of this actually happens every Friday as investors sell off their Sterling to protect themselves heading into the weekend when they are not at their desk.
The fact that this continues to happen is why anyone with a buying Euro, US Dollar, or Australian Dollar requirement should be wary of the Christmas period.
If you are planning a currency purchase involving the Pound, it is certainly worth your time contacting me on email@example.com to order to explore the options open to you to seize any peaks which emerge on GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD and GBP/USD, and to safeguard your transfer from any unexpected turns in global politics and the financial world.
I offer my customers a proactive service to make sure you remain a well informed purchaser and avoid being ‘last to the party’ when attractive levels for buying or selling suddenly emerge. I also work for one of the UK’s leading currency exchange brokerages who provide highly competitive currency exchange rates.
To avoid the inherant risk of the Christmas period, I would remind our regular readers that you can also ‘pre-book’ your currency at today’s rates for a later period to avoid navigating particularly volatile periods when you have a planned currency exchange in 2017.