Category Archives: USD

Positive GDP figures do little to boost Sterling, is it all doom and gloom from here? (Joseph Wright)

Followers of Sterling exchange rates got a bit of a surprise this morning after UK GDP figures came out better than expected . According to the Office for National Statistics UK GDP rose 0.6% in the second quarter of this year, and with the ‘Brexit’ occurring right at the end of the 2nd quarter it may be the last reading of an economic improvement for some time in the UK.

Those hoping for an improvement in the value of Sterling may be feeling a little deflated at the moment, as this morning’s GDP figures will be the last recording of how the UK economy was performing prior to the ‘Brexit’. Many had hoped for an upward spike in Sterling’s value off the back of the figures coming out better than expected by analysts, but that hasn’t happened and my personal feeling is from this point onward it may be some time until Sterling is boosted off the back of good economic performance in the UK.

As recent as last Friday the UK released Service and Manufacturing data for the first time since the ‘Brexit’. Those economic news releases make it difficult to remain optimistic as the uncertainty surrounding the UK has begun to damage the economy, with economic activity falling to it’s lowest level since 2009 according to those figures released.

With today’s positive news doing little to nothing for Sterling’s value I’m expecting any further negative news releases to impact the Pounds value quite heavily.

Those concerned over the falling rate of Sterling’s value may wish to consider making their conversions sooner as opposed to later, as prior to the ‘Brexit’ many renowned analysts predicted parity for GBP/EUR exchange rates, and GBP/USD has already fallen to a 31 year low with potential for the pair to fall further.

The next key date for Sterling will be the 4th of August, many are expecting an interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee on that date and should that occur, it’s likely the Pound will fall further so pencil that date into your diary.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy or sell a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also call in directly and ask reception for Joe on 01494 787 478.

 

 

 

Will UK GDP Figures Boost Sterling’s Value? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling exchange rates continue to hang in the balance, ahead of this morning’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. With an improvement on the previous figure expected, we could see Sterling start to put pressure back on 1.20 against the EUR and 1.32 against the USD. However, there is also an argument to make that the improvement has now been factored into the current market and we are only likely to see an aggressive move if the official reading comes outside of the 0.5% growth expected.

It’s a strange time for those clients holding Sterling, with the initial fallout from the Brexit now digested by the markets. Whilst the Pound has gained some traction following some political stability in the UK and the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision not to cut interest rates this month but there is still a feeling that we see further slippage at any time. The Pound remains extremely fragile and I do not expect any sustained improvement, or increased investor confidence under current market conditions. It is far more likely that the Pound’s value will be boosted by other factors, most prominently any downturn in other economies, such as the Eurozone. If investor confidence wains over the coming months, which is highly likely due further economic problems on the horizon for Greece & Italy, the EUR will start to lose value. This in turn will benefit the Pound but I do not see any major advances against either the EUR or USD in the short-term.

It may be prudent for those clients holding GBP to protect themselves ahead of the BoE’s next interest rate decision on August 4th. With a rate cut highly likely in my opinion and a possible increase in monetary policy (QE), the recent gains seen for Sterling could be short-lived.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk   

Sterling exchange rates in for a testing August? Will we see Sterling weakness? (Daniel Wright)

Following on from a fairly turbulent few weeks Sterling has found itself reasonably stable against most major currencies over the last week or so but will that trend continue?

The key issue is what happens next with the Bank of England and whether or not we do see an interest rate cut at the next Bank of England interest rate decision a week on Thursday.

It does look more likely now that we will be seeing a cut which may lead to a further drop in the value of Sterling. An interest rate cut is generally seen as bad for a currency as it makes it less attractive to investors. We have indeed seen only this morning that a few banks have confirmed that they will potentially start to charge their business clients to hold money should the Bank of England end up entering into the realms of negative interest rates.

On top of this, as we enter August we will start to see the release of economic data for July (the first full month since we voted out) which will start to really show the initial signs of what the referendum vote meant for the economy.

A lot of businesses and the general public held back following the result of this vote so it would not be a great surprise to see economic data next month to be fairly poor and Sterling to feel the brunt of that so the next few weeks are a time to approach with caution.

There are plenty of other issues to be aware of around the world inclusive of the Italian Banks, the U.S election and the horrendous acts of terror that keep on happening, so be aware that at any time the markets can move rapidly and in any direction.

On Friday evening we also have banking stress tests released on Friday night at 9pm which is one to really look out for. The fact that this data is being released outside of trading hours suggests to me that we may well have quite a lot of problems that have been discovered and that they do not want the market to over react upon the release, therefore they are giving the market the weekend to calm down before trading. All European banks are being tested so be aware that this may lead to big market swings when the Asian markets open on Sunday night.

Should you have a currency exchange coming up in the near future and you want to make the most of your money then feel free to get in touch with me at any time today or this week to discuss the options available to you, including a forward contract where you can lock in a rate for anything up to a year in advance for just a small deposit.

Should you be in the process of buying a property, sending money overseas for your business or exchanging currency for any other reason then it is well worth getting in contact with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site directly. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and a contact number and I will be more than happy to deal with you personally.

Will the Pound get any stronger against the Euro and Dollars? (Joshua Privett)

The short answer is that if the Pound does strengthen against the Euro and the various Dollars available for purchase, it will most likely be before August.

Today the Pound took a heavy hit with some frankly morbid news about post-Brexit business conditions in the UK. Economic activity in the UK has deteriorated to a 7 year low in the weeks which have followed a Brexit vote. This was also the largest fall in a single month on record.

Manufacturing and service sectors saw a serious decline in output and orders. The only other occurrences when negative economic outlook was this poor was during the global financial crisis, the dot com bubble burst, and the Asian financial crisis.

Yet luckily for Euro and Dollar buyers the fall was contained to about 1%. Much of the current news for the UK is priced into the current value of the Pound so further negative news isn’t having as dramatic an effect as three weeks ago.

However, these individual data releases can add up, and eventually weight heavily on the value of any currency.

The first two weeks of each month sees the release of economic performance figures from the previous month, and understandably is where you can get some of the heaviest currency movement for the month. The data released today was allowed to be seen early as this was a preliminary survey, rather than the exact figures to be released next month.

This is why I mentioned the beginning of August as a red-flag for Euro and Dollar buyers as the Pound will likely be facing some heavy criticism during this period.

In the meantime, Euro buyers may see some respite with the release of stress test results on European Banks. With the recent news of Italian Banks facing a debt crisis, these results may paint a picture of instability and therefore create opportunity before August.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a currency requirement should contact me jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro or Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place to avoid the downside risk in August affecting your transfer. As such a brief discussion could save you thousands on your currency exchange.

Euro and Dollar sellers, who have some time to play with, should also reach out to discuss how to approach the next few weeks in order to make sure any peaks with emerge within the time frame you have to complete your transfer are maximized.

BOE Interest Rate Decision and QE could Weaken the Pound (Daniel Charles Johnson)

Sterling Overview

With the appointment of Theresa May as new Prime Minister and a firm cabinet now in place. I would expect a gradual rally for Sterling against most major currencies. There is however the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision on 4th August. There is a high chance of a rate cut from the already record low of 0.5% to 0.25%. This is common knowledge so I would not expect a massive drop in the Pound’s value as it may well be factored into the market. What could damage Sterling is if Mark Carney the governor of the BOE decides to implement Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. He has £150bn at his disposal so if there is an announcement expect the Pound to fall in value. If you have to move short to medium time it may be wise to move before this date.

GBP/AUD

If you are an Aussie Dollar seller it is difficult to justify hanging on until 4th August. There is a rate decision due down under on the 2nd August and there is the chance of a cut which will weaken the Aussie. With current levels the best since September 2014 I would be looking to take advantage of current levels. To procrastinate could prove costly.

If you are an Aussie buyer potentially you could wait for the decision on 2nd August to see if there is a cut and GBP/AUD moves in your favour and then trade after the announcement on 2nd or 3rd avoiding a potential fall on 4th August.

GBP/EUR

Mario Draghi, the Head of the European Central Bank today announced the possibility of a QE increase later in the year. This has seen GBP/EUR to move above 1.20. If you are a Euro buyer I would be looking to move before the 4th August, the highest we have been since the EU referendum is 1.21 so 1.20 doesn’t look like a bad time to bite the bullet.

Euro Sellers wait until after the interest rate decision and then get your trade done. Following Draghi’s comments the Euro is in a precarious position, especially when you throw the Greece and Italy situation into the mix.

GBP/USD

USD buyers, trade before the 4th August. Sellers wait until the decision on the 4th then trade. You are currently selling at the best levels since 1985.  It is a no brainer.

If you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is key during such a volatile  times, If you have a veteran broker on board he can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would like me to help with your trade I will be happy to help. Let me know the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the UK and as such I am in a position to beat nearly every competitors rate of exchange. You would be looking at around a 4% saving in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Will the pound keep rising? GBPEUR and GBPUSD Forecast

The answer to this question is probably not. That is because whilst we have just lately had some good news to help sterling find a boost, there are still a number of challenges ahead which sterling will need to overcome in order to remain at this better rates. some of you might laugh at me calling any sterling exchange rate as better but we are much better on most currency pairs than the lows seen only a couple of weeks ago. GBPEUR is now back over 1.20 and GBPUSD has recently hit 1.34. The recent sterling strength is down to two key factors, the appointment of Theresa May and also the lack of any interest rate cut by the Bank of England last week. Theresa May has made clear any Brexit negotiations or invoking of Article 50 are long term so therefore despite the recent bounce for the pound I think economic rather political factors will now play a much greater role on sterling exchange rates. The prospect of an interest rate cut and any QE from the Bank of England (which are predicted for as early as August 4th) could be the big drag between now and Christmas. To learn more on the implication of this on your currency exchange please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR 

If this happens then the pound could easily retest the lows of 1.15 seen at the beginning of July, I would suggest a new bottom could easily be reached in the lower teens or perhaps 1.11-1.12 but for this to happen there would need to be some very bad economic data and recession for the UK. This lower view was the consensus only last week but financial markets and sterling have benefitted from a relief rally as we avoid the ‘worst case’ scenarios and against their own indications the Bank adopts a more cautious tone.

If the Bank of England surprises markets and fails to adopt any stimulus measures in August and September we could easily see sterling rise higher over 1.20 settling in the lower 1.20’s. There are other factors keeping the Euro weaker including the Italian banking issue plus uncertainty over Greek debt repayments. The Euro is still not performing too well struggling against most currencies except of course the pound. 1.25 seems very distant but couldn’t be ruled out should investor concerns over the Euro flare up again and the pound finds further favour.

GBPUSD

As with GBPUSD any QE or interest rate cut by the Bank of England is the more immediate focus and this would send sterling down to retest the 1.27 level seen two weeks ago. Depending on the amount of QE, extent of interest rate cuts or any worse economic news I wouldn’t be wholly surprised to rule out 1.24-1.25. Some forecasters have GBPUSD at 1.20 by the year end but I don’t think that is likely. Rates of 1.25 ish were on most forecasters predictions but the change of tone from Theresa May’s appointment and the lack of cuts so far has helped the pound.

GBPUSD could easily rise to 1.35 territory if the Bank of England fail to act once again and with the US Election in November investors will soon start to begin pricing in the prospect of a Donald Trump Presidency. Such uncertainty combined with a stable pound could possibly see 1.40 again but as with GBPEUR hitting 1.25, it seems very distant.

If you have a currency exchange buying the pound, Euros or dollars then it makes sense to explore all of your options. Every situation is unique and we offer a free information service to help you plan and manage your exposure to the currency markets. I Jonathan Watson work as Associate Director and Chief Analyst for one of the UK’s top currency brokerages and would be very interested to hear from you and offer some assistance with any bank to bank transfers in and out of the UK for business or personal clients from £10,000 to the multi millions.

For more information please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk, I am very confident I can give some useful insight and if you need it a very sharp exchange rate that will save you money over the banks and typical currency broker exchange rates. Any information is completely free, please email me and I will get back in touch immediateley.

 

Will Sterling’s Recovery Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has gained value against all the major currencies during Wednesday’s trading, following this morning’s official UK Unemployment rate. The figure of 4.9% came out better than expectation and this helped to boost Sterling’s value against the EUR & USD.

GBP/EUR rates spiked back towards 1.20, hitting 1.1990 at today’s high, whilst GBP/USD rates reached 1.3197 before slipping slightly by close of European trading. Whilst the recent improvement for the Pound has been welcomed by many, I’m still not convinced that we will see a sustainable recovery under current market conditions.

The catalyst for Sterling gains was brought about following last week’s decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to keep UK interest rates on hold at 0.5%. This, alongside the political stability bough about by Theresa May’s appointment as Prime Minister, has helped boost Sterling’s value and the key question now is will we see this recent improvement continue and if so will it be sustainable?

Personally I feel the Pound is likely to find life tough going for the most part, at least until we are given a clearer picture of how and when we are going to facilitate our ‘Brexit’ from the EU. This does not mean that the currency will move in a straight line and there will be opportunities for both buyers and sellers but my overriding feeling is that we are unlikely to see an aggressive spike, so therefore it may be wise to protect any short to medium-term Sterling positons and not risk a further downturn, in what has become an increasingly fragile and uncertain market.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Outlook Uncertain over Brexit and August Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

Despite an excellent rally for the pound last week against all of the major currencies we are now seeing some resistance at these higher levels just below 1.20 for GBP EUR and 1.31 for GBP USD. There are two main reasons for these recent rapid gains – The formation of a new Conservative government with Theresa May as Prime Minister and also the decision from the Bank for England to not raise interest rates last week.

By ending the conservative leadership contest some two months early, this has given much greater political clarity which was absolutely needed. This single change may even help keep Britain out of recession as we move further forward into this uncertain period.

Theresa May will be visiting Berlin today to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and also French President Francois Hollande to open some very early dialogue between the leaders. It will be interesting to see the tone between them all later today as it is likely to have repercussions for both the pound and the Euro. If there are renewed suggestions that Europe will be tough on Britain then this is likely to see the pound weaken. I personally feel things may start to look more upbeat so there may not be too much ground for the pound to lose here.

The next essential date in the diary is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday 4th August. As interest rates were not cut as that markets had anticipated there is a growing expectation that action will be taken in August. Even Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond yesterday reiterated that Mark Carney has said there will be a package of monetary measures forthcoming.

For me this should keep the pressure on the pound from here on as two individuals have made clear the intention. If we don’t see a rate cut then we are probably looking at more Quantitative Easing which is also sterling negative. For anyone selling Euros this particular period could present you with some of the best opportunities.

Inflation data yesterday arrived slightly higher than expected but was not enough to drive the markets with these larger forces at work.

If you find this post useful and you have a currency requirement either now or in the future then it is well worth you getting in contact with me (James Lovick) personally. I work for a brokerage that has won numerous awards both for our rates and customer service and I would be quite surprised if I could not better the rates you can achieve with your current choice of provider.

It only takes a moment to get in touch and you may save thousands of Pounds so feel free to email me (James Lovick) on jll@currencies.co.uk with a description of your requirement and a contact number and I will contact you as soon as I can.

Inflation and unemployment figures key for where the pound heads next (Daniel Wright)

We have seen a  fairly quiet day on the trading floor today with little in terms of economic data for the markets to feel off of, however the next two days there are a few big releases for the markets to get their teeth into.

The Pound has been sat just above and just below what I see as a pivotal point against the Euro of 1.20. I feel that if we see Sterling break above this level then the Pound may push up by a couple of cents.

Tomorrow morning we have inflation data out at 09:30am and with inflation being one of the key factors involved in interest rate changes, investors and speculators alike will be watching  to see the results.

Following on from this we have the unemployment rate on Wednesday morning, also due to be released at 09:30am. Expectations are for unemployment to remain steady at 5% so any deviation from this level will no doubt lead to the Pound being particularly volatile.

I personally still feel that the weakness for Sterling will not last, of course there are banana skins ahead that could lead to the odd drop off, but in my opinion Sterling has slightly overshot the runway and should be a little stronger than it is at present.

We do not only offer out up to date and insightful market information but if you have a currency exchange to carry out involving any of the major currencies and you would like to speak with me personally then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk – I deal with clients buying and selling properties overseas, business transactions, high-net-worth individuals and premier league footballers on a daily basis so would be happy to assist you too in the strictest of confidence.

It only takes two minutes to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk to get a comparison and those few moments spent may save you a great deal of money as it is very rare that I cannot better someones rate of exchange and in this current market it is even more important to make the most of your money.

Buying Euro and Dollar rates finish the week under pressure (Joshua Privett)

After a day of relative stability for buying Euro and Dollar rates before the close of play on Friday, they were sudden falls on the final part of the afternoon which created a concerning picture for some.

The devestating and tragic attacks in Nice understandably hit buying Euro rates the heaviest, with a full Cent drop in the value of the Euro early Friday morning until it was confirmed that the threat had been contained and the terrorist killed.

In total the Pound has had a net gain of around 3% for buying Euro and Dollar rates since the beginning of last week. The stability came from the sudden announcement of a new Prime Minister and Government to deal with the Brexit and the current shocks from the referendum reverberating through the economy.

Yet, with no new news, the Pound still struggled late Friday afternoon. This is down to speculative trading more than anything else.

On Friday afternoons you tend to see the phenomenon of profit-taking on currency markets. Speculators at high street institutions who move hundreds of millions each day are the true market movers, and many wish to consolidate their profits to end the week.

Whilst the Pound has recovered somewhat, it is only a week since the heavy slides of last week were last recorded. The Dollar seems to still be the currency of choice which is why we saw its value saw as the week ended, with serious capital flowing into the USD.

Yet this is not necessarily the end to the Pound’s strengthening trend. Junior Ministers were appointed in the UK over the weekend. The likes of Australia have called immediately for trade deals with the UK, the positive news to counteract the recent negative tirade hasn’t ended.

USD and Euro sellers are still seeing some fantastic opportunities, and may be wise to move sooner rather than later to secure those gains.

I can provide a live, competive quote for your exchange, and can describe the process of bringing funds back to the UK at more competitive rates than those offered by the high street banking world.

Simply email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk, and I can also assist Euro and Dollar buyers to create a strategy for your transfer to maximise your currency return.

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