Category Archives: USD

Exchange Rate Forecast – Euro GBP US Dollar ( Andrew Bromley )

The Euro has strengthened today on more positive economic news for the single currency. Yesterday saw an improvement in the Eurozone unemployment figure, and todays improved German Retail Sales figures have helped the Euro further. Following what seems to have been bad news after bad news, the Euro was due a slight improvement. The improvement has been just that – slight! Many market analysts had predicted an improvement of several cents for the Euro, following the announcement of a Greek bailout. Once the bailout was confirmed to be not forthcoming, and to eventually be replaced by a deferment to repayment dates, the markets have adjusted and seem to be heading towards 1.40 rather than 1.30.

I personally feel that levels will stay between 1.3650 and 1.3775 for the short to medium term, prior to potential Pound weakness from the UK General Election. This years General Election is set to be the most open election for many years, with currently no clear party taking favour. If you have an exchange requirement between now and May, you may want to make contact before the market goes berserk!

US Dollar – The Week Ahead

The Greenback regained some of its strength towards the back end of last week, as following her meeting with US Congress, Head of the Fed Janet Yellen was eventually positive again about a US Interest Rate hike. Interest rates are a very goo indicator to the strength of an economy, so the positivity toward an increase subsequently strengthened USD again. I personally feel that we will see the 1.50 levels again as the Pound weakens in the build up to the UK General Election, so US Dollar buyers may wish to ready themselves. This week the US release their ‘Beige Book’ (an economic overview) and US Non Farm Payrolls are out Friday afternoon. This is followed by US Unemployment so the close of the week will be where the action is!

Those buying or selling with GBP should also be wary primarily of Thursdays UK Interest Rate decision. Although no change is expected, it will be very interesting (and potentially market moving) to see if there is any deviation from the Monetary Policy Committee on their thoughts…

If you do have a currency requirement, please feel free to get in contact on 01494 787 478 – please ensure that you ask for Andrew Bromley and quote this blog – that will ensure access to unbeatable exchange rates! Alternatively, drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk – I’ll be in touch with a response.

Will GBP/EUR Rates Hit 1.40? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has continued to perform well against the EUR but there was a drop during yesterday’s trading, despite positive UK Manufacturing data. Usually a bullish reading would have boosted Sterling’s value but with Eurozone unemployment coming out better than expected, this move did not occur. Eurozone unemployment now stands at 11.2%, an improvement over the expected reading of 11.4%, and this helped the single currency to find some much needed market support, spiking by over a cent against the Pound. This move helped eased pressure on the EUR, which until yesterday had been sitting at a 7 year low against GBP.

Will this latest move be another false dawn for the EUR, or will the single currency finally be able to make sustained inroads back towards 1.35? With a busy week ahead I anticipate additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates but I do feel the EUR will continue to find support under 1.40. In fact, if you look at the recent economic data coming from the Eurozone, there has been a marked improvement. With the Greek debt issue seemingly put on ice for the next four months, the markets could well look to this improved data, which in turn could help push GBP/EUR levels back towards 1.35.

The USD made inroads against the Pound yesterday, with Cable rates moving back below 1.54 on the exchange. The Pound has found support around 1.50 after a huge swing for the USD over recent months, with the pair trading almost 20 cents lower than it was towards the end of last summer. Personally I feel the pair will now be range-bound in the low 1.50’s until either the BoE or FED change their monetary policy stance, or perhaps look at raising interest rates.

GBP/CAD rates have fluctuated over the past month, with Sterling gaining some momentum following a positive run of economic data for the UK. With the pair now trading comfortable above 1.90 for a sustained period and reaching a high of 1.9536, we are seeing some of the best exchange rates of the past 6 years! Many clients are now hoping that we will reach 2 but I do feel a huge amount of resistance will be met under this level.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk 

GBP-EUR and GBP-USD having a tense morning… (Matthew Vassallo)

The post below reflects an interesting relationship currently being acted acted out between the US Dollar, Euro and Sterling.

In the first few hours of trading this morning it seemed the ground gained against the Euro for Sterling was being lost rapidly. But this has since recovered. Indicating that such a poor day for the Euro has caused investors to fly out of the single-currency at even the slightest movement in their favour. Once the bailout extension for Greece is officially ratified, there will be a corrective pullback. There is still time for 1.37 to be tested again today while the German Government is ratifying the new agreement with Greece. However, since there is simply an extension on the bailout and no long-term agreement, the corrective pull-back will not be as large as previously envisaged, as investors will only approach the single currency on small short term positions, rather than large, long term ones which cause the larger shifts in currency markets.

The drama over the US Dollar yesterday has caused many to question when the US will raise interest rates. The FED after seeming to be unified now seems quite divided on the issue, one quoted saying that Yellen, Chair of the FED, cannot wait until we have a completely healed labour force and an inflation rate bang on 2% before raising interest rates. This is boiling down to the political incentive to rise to the short term demands of American citizens, and the economic duty to make sure that their currency does not become too overvalued. If it does, banks will have to pay out higher interest rates while receiving less foreign business for their financial services (as the USD will be so expensive).

As many are waiting to pounce on opportunity, rather than passing it up and waiting until a clearer idea is established on the Federal Reserve’s timeline to raise interest rates, conflict in America is actually causing Dollar strength. The ground gained against the USD is now being lost. 1.55 is not available anymore, and 1.53 has already been achieved today. Buyers of USD should act now. With our election getting closer and closer, these rates now present an excellent buying opportunity before we begin to test 1.50 once more.

Similarly, this strength in the US economy is causing the CAD to be bolstered from recent lows, so those with CAD requirements should act while the opportunity to buy above 1.9 is still present!

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk for a free quote, or call straight into the trading floor and ask for Matthew on 01494 787 478.

GBP-EUR Best Rates – 1.37 breached comfortably and still available at the close of trading today ( Andrew Bromley )

A seemingly quiet day today with little movement on the markets, with everyone largely sitting tight waiting for the tedious process to unfold over the agreement on a bailout extension before any more movement could be expected, was suddenly and sharply shattered.

The reason for this was a culmination of events and data unfolding in the US, as well as a very nervous atmosphere on global markets.

Over the past few days Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Chair, has been presenting a rather dovish tone to her testimony regarding the US’s current economic situation and monetary policies. The delay to raise interest rates, in her opinion, was a prudent policy in light of undesirable levels of inflation and a still recovering labour force. It is also a rational approach to controlling the value of your currency – in a world of weak global growth and an economy still healing from the credit crunch, to have an extremely strong currency when your service and export sectors need to be affordable is damaging to long term growth.

So her testimony over the past few days was met with acceptance by the markets, with the GBP-USD rates breaching 1.55 comfortably, as well as the Euro rallying slightly. Then her gambit failed.

Her hearings were presided over by politicians who wish to be seen to be acting in the interests of the people, who clearly want interest rate rises after years of unsatisfactory returns from banks. They jumped on the inflation data released today which showed promising improvements even with low oil prices. What the market saw was Janet Yellen having to go on the defensive about not raising interest rates, repeatedly stating the FED was an independent body and not bound by politics. This kind of pressure put on the FED saw investors rush back into the US Dollar, after being dismayed by recent testimony, as well as repetitive announcements of delayed interest rates. In a world of weak global growth, investors are more eager to pounce on opportunities than ever.

Of course, the most desperate investors currently are those holding Euros. With worries that the single currency was going to weaken further (back to pre-2007/8 levels), many jumped hungrily on the assumption that the timeline to raise interest rates in the US would be shortened.

As the USD-EUR is the most traded currency pair in the market, the secondary effect of such a large capital flight out of the Euro was to cause a short term boost to the value of Sterling against the Euro up to a fresh 7 year-high of 1.377!

However, we must not lose sight of the main reason why the rates are this high…Greece. Once the uncertainty is completely lifted, and investors know the Quantitative Easing Program in the Eurozone can then commence and move forward, the rates will see a corrective pullback. Similar to Janet Yellen, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is of a similar mindset to controlling our currency value against our largest trading partner to ensure the stability of our own recovery.

This secondary effect today was a gift to Euro purchasers, and a further frustration to those selling and waiting for an agreement with Greece to be ironed out and signed.

Those looking to buy Euros, ahead of the German ratification of the Greek bailout extension tomorrow, and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote on 01494 787 478 – ask for Andrew. ajb@currencies.co.uk 

Sterling has an extremely stable day with limited movement against all majors (Daniel Wright)

Today we have seen a fairly quiet day on the markets for Sterling followers with little economic data out and no real big headline hitters from Europe or the States.

Tomorrow has the ability to be very different with a few major points of note to be aware of.

Early morning we have German unemployment figures which could have a great impact on the Euro. Expectations are for no change at 6.5% but the key will be if we see the actual figure come out any different. many economies have surprised us with their unemployment figures in the past few months so it would not be a great shock to see a little improvement and finally a good day for the Euro.

For anyone that has an interest in the Pound, it is important to note that we have GDP figures for the U.K out at 09:30am. These figures are the final revision for Quarter 4 of 2014 and expectations are for a slight revision downwards so Sterling may struggle a little against all majors in trading tomorrow morning.

Later in the day we have inflation figures for both Canada and America, both at 13:30pm which will no doubt lead to a volatile afternoon for their two respective currencies. The Canadian Dollar has gained strength over the past 24 hours as comments from the Bank of Canada that interest rates will remain static for the foreseeable future, which gave the CAD a boost.

If you are looking to exchange any major currency and you want to make sure you are getting the most for your money (even if you already are using a broker) then it is always well worth contacting me for a quote. I regularly have people contact me through this site that find out they are not getting the best price they can and for the sake of two minutes writing me an email it is well worth getting a quote, just like buying anything it is always worth comparing.

You can email me (Daniel Wright) the owner and editor of this site directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to give you a call and help you save a great deal of money.

Greece and the Euro, Yellen and the Dollar – What happened today and how will the market react?

Greeks gain a provisional agreement

The on-going Greek saga appears to be set to continue for at least a few months as this afternoon we saw a provisional agreement confirmed by the Eurogroup. They have agreed to proceed with national procedures with a view to reaching a final decision on the extension which may be up to four months.

This agreement had little effect on Euro exchange rates as it had been widely expected for the past few days.

The next question really is how do I see the Sterling/Euro exchange rate moving in the coming weeks following this announcement? One of the main reasons the Euro has weakened over the past six weeks or so has been down to uncertainty, which has been heightened by the media hype and constant coverage over Greece. In essence the problem has not gone away it has merely been delayed for a few months.

The fact though that it has been essentially swept under the carpet could see the Euro slowly creep back a little and personally a move back below 1.34 would not be a great surprise to me.

Mario Draghi is set to speak later today at 15:30pm in a quiet day for economic data destined to be focused on Greece once again.

If you have a currency requirement in the near future and are happy with current buying levels (7 year high) then there is a great option available to you known as a forward contract. This useful contract option allows you to lock into a rate of exchange for anything up to a year in advance, paying merely a small deposit initially and then the balance on or before whichever date has been agreed, this is absolutely vita if you are working to a fairly tight budget. If you feel this may be of use to you or you just want to see how I can help with any currency transaction in terms of getting you a better rate and level of service then please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to explain how this handy market tool works.

 Janet Yellen’s Comments give us little to work off of

Janet Yellen (Head of the Federal Reserve) testified yesterday and had many questions thrown at her surrounding interest rate hikes and when we may start to see them for America.

The main comments to pull from a long conference were that she insisted that the Fed should not be chained to decisions and that although the U.S recovery is on solid ground, there are still concerns surrounding inflation and the labour market which is not yet fully healed.

Yellen mentioned that she could not see a hike for the next two meetings which pushes us back until at least May and could lead to a little Dollar weakness in the coming days and push back above the 1.55 level. If you are looking to either buy or sell Dollars in the near term and you want to achieve the very best rate along with a highly efficient service then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) directly djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back in touch personally.

Is a Resolution With Greece Close? (Matthew Vassallo)

Whilst the on-going concerns in Greece continue to dominate headlines, the key question is whether or not a resolution is close? Whilst GBP/EUR rates continue to creep up the uncertainty remains but I do feel a resolution will be found, even if it’s only short-term. Greece’s creditors, in particular Germany, will not want Greece to default on their debts and leave the EUR, so I feel at the moment there is a lot of cat and mouse being played before a likely 11th hour resolution. In fact Greece have now put together a list of proposed reforms, which they hope will help to secure a four month loan extension and keep the wolf from the door for a while longer. These reforms include combating tax evasion and the smuggling of fuel and tobacco but whether these are enough to satisfy its creditors happy is not yet known.

With GBP/EUR rates hitting a fresh 7 year high this week it is clearly an attractive time to purchase EUR and whilst it will take a complete shift in market conditions for the EUR to gain any sustained support, any resolution with Greece, even a temporary one, could be the catalyst for this shift.

It’s a relatively quiet week in terms of economic data, so it is likely that tomorrow’s speech by ECB president Mario Draghi and Thursday’s UK GDP figures will dominate headlines as we head towards the weekend.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Greece Bailout – Terms Agreed – Euro to Strengthen? USD Forecast ( Andrew Bromley )

The Pound hit fresh 7 year highs against the Euro today, the day high being 1.3650. This comes despite the very real possibility that Greece will finally have succeeded in delaying its request to negotiate bailout terms. You’d have though this as positive news for the Eurozone as a whole, as a confirmed direction for the troublesome Greeks has been craved! Overnight progress is expected to be made with Mario Draghis announcement at 14:00 potentially giving an indication of an extension to bailout terms. Watch This Space!

The US Dollar has a rocky week ahead, as FED Governor Janet Yellen has to answer questions from Congress on the state of the US Economy. January saw rates as low for GBP USD as 1.50 as the FED had indicated an interest rate hike in early 2015. However, the most recent FED minutes were less ‘bullish’, with comments linked to the rate hike being more reserved. The indications now are for the decision to be ‘mid-year’ at the very earliest, providing what could be a good window for USD buyers. This week also has US Inflation data on Thursday and GDP figures Friday – expect a busy rate!

If you do have a currency requirement, please feel free to get in contact on 01494 787 478 – please ensure that you ask for Andrew Bromley and quote this blog – that will ensure access to unbeatable exchange rates! Alternatively, drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk – I’ll be in touch with a response. Remember – there are methods of taking advantage of current rates without having to make full payment immediately for the currency!

Have a good evening – Let’s see what impact Greece has tomorrow!

 

Markets Preparing for Exchange Rate Crash!

A Euro correction is potentially around the corner – this afternoons trading saw a swing from 1.3620 down to the late 1.34s. The world is waiting to see if Greece can secure an extension to its current loan agreement, with the next key payment date being Saturday 28th. As there is the associated time pressure, there is currently a huge amount of market speculation, leading to erratic jumps for Euro linked exchange rates on the announcement of good and bad news. Tie this in with the attempts to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine, and you have a pretty serious melting point that the whole world should look at seriously.

The Greek extension and subsequent bailout will make in my opinion major strides over the weekend, as with the time running so fine the easiest option is to essentially just put it off and fix it later. Therefore as the Euro gained ground this afternoon against the Pound, I’d be inclined to say that a conclusion is becoming closer – good news for those selling Euros. That being said the ‘good news’ could only be a window of improvement of 2 – 3 cents, and not a drop back in to the 1.20s. I personally feel that with the Pound on slightly firmer footings, the trend will eventually be a push back to the 1.36s and above. This is until the looming UK General Election starts to mix things up!

As I noted above, a careful eye should be cast on events in Ukraine. The US are intending to re-start their trading relationship with Russia and the Ukraine ceasefire will be key. However Russia seem to be the belligerent at the moment and seem to be testing everyone’s nerves – only this week the BBC reported the Russian ‘Bear’ bomber flying off of the coast of Cornwall. Worrying stuff! Those with a US Dollar position would be wise to pay a very close eye on proceedings, as this Ukraine news could be profound.

With these very large events currently dominating the global news scene, the more regular monthly economic data releases tend to be taking a less well documented position. That being said they are still key to market movements so not worth ignoring!

If you do have a currency requirement, please feel free to contact me to run through it. I am contactable from 08:30 Monday morning (UK time) on 01494 787 478 – please ensure that you ask for Andrew Bromley and quote this blog – that will ensure access to unbeatable exchange rates! Alternatively, feel free to drop me an email over the weekend to AJB@currencies.co.uk – I’ll be in touch with a response. Remember – there are methods of taking advantage of current rates without having to make full payment immediately for the currency!

Euro sellers – fingers crossed for some good news

Euro buyers – seriously consider getting Euros bought before the impending Greek news!!

Have a great weekend

Andrew Bromley

GBP Forecast, how can I avoid the uncertainty of Greece? Watch out for the election too!

Sterling has risen against most currencies except the Euro in 2015 as UK economic data falls short of expectations. I think it important to note that some 40% of the UK’s trade is with the Eurozone and therefore the slowdown in the Eurozone economy will impact the British economy as well. Making plans in uncertain markets is never a bad idea! The pound could come under some strong selling pressures due to the UK General Election in May, however if selling Euros to buy sterling who is to say how weaker the Euro will be by then!

A Stop Loss order will automatically execute when the rate drops to a lower level than desired (protecting against losses) whilst a Limit order triggers when your desired higher rate is reached. Exchange rates change every second and such contracts guarantee your price even if the rate is just hit for a second. Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information on achieving the best rates.

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