Category Archives: USD

Is Sterling’s rebound coming to an end? (Joseph Wright)

It would appear that the surprisingly bullish run for Sterling exchange rates is now slowly coming to an end, as we’re beginning to experience daily falls for GBP exchange rates against some of the other major currencies.

After ending the month of April in such a strong fashion the Pound is having quite a negative start to May, having fallen as low as 1.2628 from the GBPEUR peak of 1.2900 last month which was close to a 3 month high.

I personally believe the falling GBPEUR exchange rate is currently the most reflective of Sterling’s true value, as the Pound has actually gained against the Aussie Dollar due to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates from 2% down to the record low of 1.75%. Similarly, cable (GBPUSD) has so far managed to hold on to it’s recent gains mostly due to USD weakness, as the markets are beginning to price in the unlikelihood of an interest rate hike anytime soon. Had it not been for the weakness in USD and AUD for the reasons previously stated, I think that we could have seen GBP fall against both so far in May.

Sterling had been boosted as the ‘Brexit’ polls indicated a strong ‘Remain’ lead around the time of US President Barack Obama’s recent trip to the UK. Barack Obama, Christine Largarde and Mark Carney have all recently lent their support to the ‘Remain’ campaign and warned the UK of the risks moving forward and this helped swing the polls in favor of a vote to remain within the Eurozone.

I feel that the positive sentiment surrounding Sterling is now beginning to wain, and with poor manufacturing data coming out of the UK yesterday (UK manufacturing activity fell in April for the first time since 2013) along with UK GDP falling in the first quarter of this year, I won’t be surprised to see Sterling fall once again in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

This morning will see the release of UK Construction Data at 9.30am which could provide some direction for GBP exchange rates which are currently flat so far. With a quiet week for financial data releases I’m expecting investor sentiment to continue to drive GBP exchange rates this week, and anyone with a GBPUSD currency requirement should be aware that Non Farm Payroll figures are out this Friday which could cause volatility around the time of its release. Feel free to get in contact if you would like to discuss this news release in further detail.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency, it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible, you can also call me directly on 01494 787 478.

Sterling slips to start off the week as Brexit concerns weigh on the Pound – RBA to change rates in Australia tonight? (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have had a fairly bad day against most major currencies, while many brits have been spending their bank holiday sorting out the garden.

It appears that a few Brexit concerns are creeping back into the market and without London markets being open to defend the Pound it has dropped off against the board.

I still feel that Sterling is going to have a good May and that although it is an easy pitch for many to say that the Pound will crumble I think we may start to see the remain campaign start to edge closer to victory as those in the leave campaign still have failed to be able to offer a firm and solid answer as to what would happen if we left. The truth is of course nobody knows and they will not know until they have negotiated so voting to leave will be a gamble and I feel a lot of people are starting to realise this.

The U.S economy has started to drop off a little giving the Pound a good boost against the Dollar and overnight tonight we have a key moment for the Australian Dollar. Later on we have the RBA Interest rate decision and although it is doubtful that we will see a cut in rates you cannot rule it out. Should we see a cut for Australia then the Australian Dollar may weaken off quite a bit overnight.

If you have the need to buy or indeed sell Sterling for your business, due to a property purchase/sale or for any other reason then it is important to have a proactive broker on your side and one that can get you the very top levels of exchange – It is very easy to settle for second best in this market but it is key to realise that even the slightest improvement in a rate of exchange can save you a huge sum of money.

If you would like to have a brief discussion with me (Daniel Wright) as to how I will be able to assist you with any pending currency exchange then feel free to email me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk  and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally. We can cater for people inside our outside of the U.K and carry out bank to bank transfers.

With GBPUSD rates hitting a 4 month high what should we expect for Sterling vs US Dollar exchange rates during May? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the US Dollar has gradually seen an improvement during April owing to a number of different factors.

With President Obama coming over to the UK recently and stating that he would prefer to see the UK remain part of the European Union this has helped to give the Pound some support vs the Greenback as the Brexit vote appears less and less likely.

The US economy has continued to improve slowly with unemployment looking strong. However, it was only a few months ago that the US were expected to raise interest rates as many as 4 times during 2016 but recently we have seen a change in expectation to just twice.

However, with only 8 months to go this seems less and less likely especially when you consider that the US will go to the polls later this year and to interfere with economic policy would be a surprise if it happens late into the election period.

On Wednesday the US releases both unemployment figures as well as Trade Balance data and although I would expect to see strong unemployment data I think the Trade Balance data could cause a wobble for the US economy.

With the global economy having slowed in recent times I would not be surprised to see a fall in this figure which ultimately could cause the Dollar to weaken vs Sterling.

Indeed, EURUSD exchange rates are at their best level since May 2015 which has also helped to give GBUSD rates a lift with rates now trading at their highest level to buy US Dollars since January 2016 or a 4 month high.

Friday is likely to be the most volatile day for GBUSD exchange rates as we see the publication of US non-farm payroll data which is often the biggest market mover of the month.

Any signs of a possible fall could lead to even better rates for GBPUSD so if you’re looking to buy US Dollars in the short term then it could be worth waiting to see what happens on Friday afternoon.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Is the bullish run for GBP exchange rates now over? (Joseph Wright)

As the end of the week approaches it would seem like Sterling’s rebound is coming to an end, as across the board Sterling is generally down today as it was yesterday as well.

Sterling has recently been boosted by a number of world leaders such as IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and US President Barack Obama all suggesting that Britain is better off remaining within the Eurozone, and this has been reflected within the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls as the ‘remain’ camp are seeing a significant lead and this has boosted risk sentiment towards the UK moving forward and therefore, Sterling strength.

Those looking for the best time to convert Sterling into Euro’s may wish to consider doing that sooner rather than later, as since GBPEUR tested the 1.2900 trading level a few times earlier this week, it’s since been on a slow decline downwards which is something I’m expecting to continue in the lead up to the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June.

Although Sterling’s upwards trend has begun to slow against the Dollar, the slowdown has been far less abrupt than GBPEUR’s and I think we could see some further strength in the rate of cable before market jitters and political uncertainty once again take over in the Referendums lead up. I’m not expecting to see the inter-bank rate go higher than 1.50 before June the 23rd but I do think it could test the late 1.40’s before returning to its longer term downward trend.

In recent times Sterling has performed well on UK bank holidays due to the thin volumes traded. Those with a interest in a strengthening Pound will hope the currency get’s off to a good start off the back of this as the beginning of May is going to be busy on the financial data front, with plenty of scope for volatility and potential Sterling weakness.

Next week see’s the release of US Non-Farm Payroll Figures, US Manufacturing, AUD Interest Rate Decision, EU Producer Price figures and US Unemployment data just to name a few of the biggest potential movers of currency markets. Although none of the data sets mentioned apply specifically to the UK economy, all have the potential to swing GBP based currency pairs so they’re worth paying attention to as the currency market is a zero sum game and there will always winners or losers.

If you would like to discuss the weeks major events, or an upcoming currency requirement you have involving GBP, it’s worth getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to take advantage of award winning exchange rates and high levels of client security. You can also speak to me over the phone by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joseph.

GBP/EUR, GBP/AUD sliding, only GBP/USD likely to rise (Joshua Privett)

After a dramatic week for the Pound and the intervention of a sitting US President, GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD are starting to move back down after the near two month highs reached yesterday.

This is likely due to poor UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year, which has caused the dominant story of the positive effects of Obama’s visit on the Remain campaign to fade into the background.

The only reason GBP/USD is on the rise is due to poor US housing data.

With popularity ratings higher than our own PM in the UK, Obama’s initially gentle and then firmer suggestions that the UK will be better off in the EU rather than out of it, has been received overwhelmingly positively by financial markets. Frankly, by a surprising amount.

But Polls are still well within the margin of error, and with such a large swathe of the population still undecided, UK based companies will have to seriously re-evaluate their exposure ahead of the Referendum vote. Similar to February when Boris Johnson announced that he was joining the Leave campaign, mass Pound sell-offs will likely occur unless the Remain camp accrues a commanding lead.

Particularly since whilst the Remain camp are ahead, polls on voter turnout itself favour the Leave camp overwhelmingly.

In the short term there is no additional data out between now and the start of may which is expected to assist Euro buyers, the final two weeks of each month are relatively quiet compared to the onslaught of information at the beginning, so expect severe volatility on GBP/EUR and GBP/AUD next week.

With rates on GBP/EUR down 0.7 cents and rates on GBP/AUD down 1.4 cents from the highs of yesterday, and with UK growth slowing by a third compared to the previous quarter, this dominant narrative will likely see gradual slides on buying rates in the run up to May.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Joshua. We can discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return, particularly those whose requirements may be a month or two away.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current levels can be fixed to avoid potential drops on the currency markets as we edge closer to the Referendum affecting your transfer.

Those with more immediate requirements can receive a free, competitive quote, whist Euro and Dollar sellers can reach out and I will outline how best to safely ride the expected movements in your favour to any peaks which emerge in the short-term. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rallies Following Positive GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling rallied again during Wednesday mornings trading, following better than expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures came in above market expectation at 2.1% growth and this helped to boost Sterling’s value further, following a positive run during the first half of the trading week.

GBP/EUR rates jumped following US President Barack Obama’s comments on the weekend, regarding how Britain would be worse off outside of the EU, comments which boosted market confidence and helped to push the Pound up through 1.29 at this week’s high. This move was intensified following this morning GDP figures and a one point it seemed as though GBP/EUR rates may push 1.30, before the EUR found support snapping back towards 1.2850 by the close of European trading.

It was interesting to note that Sterling’s support waned following a report from White House hopeful Ted Cruz who said that the UK should be ‘at the front of the que’ for a trade deal with the US should we choose to leave the EU after June’s referendum. Whilst I will take these comments with a pinch of salt it comes as a stark reminder that despite this week’s reports indicating that we are more likely to stay than leave, no one actually knows what the outcome will be. The markets are likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future and I would not be gambling on huge improvements for the Pound beyond the current levels.

If you have an upcoming GBP currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Keep Getting Stronger (Ben Fletcher)

After Barrack Obama heavily involved himself with the Brexit over the weekend, the Remain campaign has increased its slender lead. Over the last 20 days there has been an increase in the GBP/EUR rate of nearly 7 cent which means anyone with £200,000 to change has gained over €11000.

The big question moving forward and what most my clients have asked is will the rate continue to strengthen? I think in the next few weeks there is certainly a chance the rate will remain around a similar level however it seems unlikely that the rate will rise into the mid 1.30’s. I believe as we move towards the actual vote itself there will be uncertainty and the rate will fall again. It’s also worth considering that the Leave campaign has only in the last few weeks been allocated their funding so there will certainly be an onslaught coming soon.

Data releases this week

GDP is released for the UK tomorrow which is expected to show a small reduction in both the month on month and year on year results. On Thursday there is a huge amount of Data being released in Europe on Thursday which is not expected to be particularly good, if the rates rise to the 1.30 level I suggest if you need to buy Euros that would be the time and not to wait.

As a side note this week the Bank of Japan on Thursday are potentially going to introduce further negative interest rates. The Japanese Yen as of recent has received a lot of investment and should the interest rate cut take place I would not be surprised to see money invested into Sterling. An influx of investment could certainly mean Thursday morning could be a great Euro buying window.

If you would like to find out further information with regards to my forecast please reach out to me at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to answer any questions you may have with regards to the GBP/EUR rate.

Sterling exchange rates continue their surprising climb, offering a great short term opportunity? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound made gains across the board again today, following on from what was a surprising rebound last week which has provided those looking to convert Sterling into another currency, with a great short term opportunity.

As we all know, currency exchange rates don’t move in straight lines and I personally view this recent market movement as a short term opportunity to take advantage of, as opposed to the beginning of long term upward trend for Sterling exchange rates.

I’m of this opinion for a number of reasons. Firstly, I’m not sold on the reasoning behind this recent boost to Sterling’s value. It’s being predominantly put down to the most recent ‘Brexit’ polls suggesting that the ‘Remain’ camp is now in the lead, although I think it takes a bit more than this to shift market’s so substantially and I think speculators, looking to make a quick buck have been bargain hunting in large numbers which has driven up Sterling’s value. Once the profit taking begins I think we can expect sharp falls for the Pound once again, similar to those we saw just a few weeks ago at the beginning of the month.

Also, I think that US President Barack Obama’s recent statements underlining the UK Government’s desire for the UK to stay within the Eurozone has been met well by the marketplace, boosting sentiment for the short term. Once again I’m not expecting this sentiment to last, as it will only take one celebrity or person of significance to lend their support to the ‘Leave’ campaign and leave us with similar market conditions to those just after Boris Johnson opted to support the ‘Leave’ campaign, when Sterling rates of exchange dropped sharply.

There are many arguments in favor of remaining within the Eurozone, and the current polls are suggesting that the UK will. But irrespective of these factors it’s highly likely that we’ll continue to experience headwinds in the lead up to the 23rd of June when we have our vote, therefore investors will need to take advantage of the opportunities that arise in that time and as I’ve previously stated, I think that the current buying opportunities on the likes of GBPEUR, GBPUSD and GBPAUD will be short term.

If you are planning to use GBP to buy a foreign currency it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible. You can also contact me directly on 01494 787 478 if you would like to discuss anything in further detail, just ask for Joseph. 

 

Will Sterling continue its recent good performance against both the Euro and the US Dollar? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has seen solid gains vs the Euro and the US Dollar during the course of last week and the expectations are that we could see further gains this morning.

US president Obama has spoken out in favour of the UK remaining part of the European Union and has suggested that if the UK leaves the EU it could cost as much as £10bn.

The US is the UK’s biggest export destination as a country and is worth approximately £3.5bn and we currently pay very low tariffs when dealing directly with the US.

A vote to leave could mean higher tariffs and trade barriers similar to those experienced by China, Brazil and India.

It appears as though Obama’s visit and comments have come at just the right time for those campaigning to stay in the European Union and this has brought about Sterling strength.

On Wednesday the UK releases GDP for the first quarter of 2016 and this could set the tone for Sterling exchange rates for the rest of the month.

Economic data has been very mixed over the last 3 months and this particular data set will make very interesting reading for anyone looking to make a currency transfer involving Sterling.

The Greek issue to still causing uncertainty and a recent Eurogroup meeting did not manage to resolve things so another emergency meeting is set to be announced in an attempt to stop them from defaulting on their next repayment due to the European Central Bank in July. This could see GBPEUR rates improve.

The US Federal Reserve meet on Wednesday night and this could impact GBPUSD rates as the Fed have recently been tipped to raise interest rates twice this year so any hints of this coming anytime soon could see Dollar strength vs Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD all rise before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Buying rates for Euros and Dollars saw some truly uplifting gains ahead of the weekend, with GBP/EUR being the standout performer, reaching 1.28 for the first time in almost two months.

Euro buyers, and anyone with GBP/USD, or GBP/AUD requirements, can lay their thanks for this turnaround squarely at the feet of Obama’s visit to the UK, and the overall positive impacts markets feel this will have on the likelihood of the UK remaining part of the EU.

Obama himself is even more popular than our own PM here, and his firm representation of the international community’s support for a Britain stronger in Europe is fully expected to translate into votes.

Particularly since his additional statements over the weekend that a UK outside of the EU would go to the back of the queue for trade deals with the US – the decision to leave is now a graver one.

At least, this is clearly how markets reacted to the news, which is why Sterling was up against all major currencies.

Polls are, however, still alarmingly close. Most recently it was 39% apiece for the Leave and Remain camps, with 12% of the population undecided and the rest likely not to vote.

Once May arrives companies will have to seriously consider their financial exposure in the run up to the June vote. We already saw mass sell-offs of the Pound in February when Boris Johnson joined the Leave campaign, and any repeats will see similar falls on GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and GBP/AUD as demand for Sterling wavers.

Over the weekend markets will be closed but recent poll data will be released for markets to trade on and react to come Monday morning. Obama’s visit may simply result in a short-term bump as he leaves the UK later toda.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro or Dollar buying requirement should contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk

If you email me with a brief description of your upcoming need for currency over the next few months, and the best number to reach you on come Monday morning, I can then contact you directly once markets open.

I can convey how the most recent poll data has effected trading, and whether the more negative tone of the latter part of Obama’s visit will cause any reverse in trend as the week continues for Euro and Dollar buyers alike. We can then discuss a strategy for your transfer based on this to maximise your Euro and Dollar return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and Euro or Dollar sellers can also get in contact to discuss your options .

 

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