Category Archives: USD

Sterling remains stable in slow week for economic data (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has made minor gains against most majors this week so far however important economic data is extremely thin on the ground and I would expect this to be the case during trading tomorrow as well.

Sterling exchange rates had a very volatile ride over the majority of September as investors and speculators alike geared themselves up for what may come from the Scottish referendum. Now that the dust appears to have settled on that matter we have seen a little Sterling strength against most major currencies as we have a little certainty both regarding the economy and politically bought back to the market.

The Pound is close to a half a year high against the Australian Dollar today though which is refreshing news for anyone looking to buy Australian Dollars in the coming days and weeks, whilst sat on the cusp of a two and a half year high against the Euro and the highest rate against the Dollar for the past few weeks so if you are looking to buy foreign currency then now certainly isn’t the worst of timing.

Tomorrow is again extremely quite with regard to economic data so unless any major surprises crop up I would expect a fairly range bound day which could actually be the ideal time to take a moment to get in touch with us directly should you have an up and coming currency transfer to make involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound.

I can help you personally with either and do not only pride myself on an efficient level of service but also on beating the exchange rates of banks and other currency brokers, so anyone that does contact me through this site can ensure that I will do my very best to make sure they make a significant enough saving to use the company I work for rather than their current  provider.

All you would need to do if you would like a quote or more information on the service I can provide is to email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you personally to let you know how I can assist you.

Will the Recent Trend of GBP Strength Continue? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have continued on an upward curve since the Scottish referendum results last week, news which helped alleviate uncertainty from the market. Sterling hit a fresh two year high, providing EUR buyers with further opportunities and although we have seen rates dip slightly this morning, GBP/EUR continues to float around 1.27 on the exchange. This positive momentum is a continuation of last weeks’ trend and follows a couple of extremely volatile weeks for the currency pair. The EUR had started to improve against Sterling and at its recent high briefly broke through 1.24 on the exchange, before the now well documented events of last week took hold and helped push rates back up to their current levels.

The question for many clients now is whether we will see a sustained period of GBP strength against the single currency, or will the EUR find support around the current levels?

Personally I feel it will be very difficult for the current trend to continue, as regardless of the market conditions the Bank of England (BoE) will not want to see Sterling’s value rocket. When we also consider that there may well have been an overreaction to last week’s referendum results and I believe we will see the EUR find support around the current levels and may even make a move back towards 1.26.

GBP/USD rates have also fluctuated more aggressively than usual of late, with the USD strengthening significantly against the Pound over recent weeks. As previously discussed the USD has continued to move away from the recent four year lows, even threatening to put pressure back on 1.60 at its recent high. Since then the Pound has started to realign itself and moved back through 1.63 but I do not expect this trend to continue for long and I feel it is far more likely we will see GBP/USD rates back around 1.60 by Christmas than back above 1.65.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates at 2 Year High (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have this week hit a 2 year high following the decision by Scotland to stay part of the United Kingdom. 

The main question though is that will this strength last or will we see profit-taking during the next few trading sessions?

UK Mortgage Approvals as well as Public Sector Net Borrowing are due out at 930am this morning which could see a bit of movement and personally I feel that the UK housing market has shown recent signs of slowing which could be highlighted with the mortgage data out shortly. Therefore, I think we could see a small fall for the Pound.

Data is relatively thin on the ground this week following a very busy and volatile fortnight for GBPEUR exchange rates. With the Scottish referendum now decided the market will look again to economic releases that might affect exchange rates.

German services PMI data has come out marginally better than expected which has given the Euro a small amount of strength against Sterling this morning.

Moving the focus over to GBPUSD rates we have manufacturing US manufacturing PMI data published this afternoon as well as a speech by FOMC member Jerome Powell.  His comments may affect US Dollar and therefore trigger a short term movement positive or negative trend.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Scotland decides on NO – What impact has this had on the Pound and what may we see for Sterling in the coming weeks? (Daniel Wright)

Scotland decides to stay in the U.K

Following an extremely volatile few weeks for the Pound we finally have the decision from the Scottish referendum and Scotland has decided to stay with the United kingdom giving the pound a little strength against most major currencies.

We saw a huge turnout as far as voting goes (84%) which just goes to show how much this has captivated Scotland and divided opinion north of the border. Sterling has had a roller coaster ride against all major currencies over the past few weeks as polls have swung back and forth both ways after we had months of the markets almost assuming we would see a No vote. More importantly what this means for the Pound is that it has bought both economic and political certainty to the U.K for the time being, both of which should give the Pound a little strength in the coming days.

Investors and speculators alike hate uncertainty and the mere fact that the referendum had seemingly been in the balance has been holding Sterling back recently even with fairly solid economic data still being released almost on a daily basis. Sterling exchange rates have moved around three and a half cents from high to low against the Euro, four cents against the Dollar and ten cents against the Australian Dollar in the past two weeks as the markets try to second guess just what would happen with the vote.

Finally on Friday morning the decision came and I am pleased to say the U.K will indeed remain as one and now hopefully politicians and the Bank of England can fully concentrate on pushing the economy forward as a whole, rather than having to unravel an exceedingly complicated tangle that may have cast a grey cloud over the Pound and kept it weak for months to come.

If you find this site of use and would like assistance with any pending currency transfers involving either buying or indeed selling the Pound then feel free to contact me by email with a brief description of what you are looking to exchange and a contact number and I will be happy to get in touch. You can email me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk

So what does this mean for me if I have currency to exchange?

Being an unprecedented situation, nobody really knows the exact impact this will have on Sterling but in my personal opinion I now feel that the Pound will kick on and gain a little strength over major currencies and heads can now turn towards if or indeed when interest rates may rise.

For those looking to sell foreign currency I would say now could be the time to secure your exchange rate. If you take the Euro as an example, it was only a few weeks ago that the European Central Bank not only cut interest rates but also indicated a few changes in Fiscal policy coming up.

Most notable of these is QE (Quantitative Easing). QE can generally weaken a currency once put into place and was one of the big reasons we saw both Sterling and the Dollar weaken a lot over the past few years. In my opinion once the dust has settled over the referendum the focus will come back on to Europe which still has huge problems to tackle and I feel the Euro could be in for a tough time of things.One must remember however we have crossed this bridge before and The Euro is a powerful beast. Only two years ago most analysts expected a rise through 1.30 when the Euro had even more problems than they do today and within a few months it was back below 1.20.

In essence the key thing you need to make sure you do is to keep in close contact with a currency broker no matter what your requirement in these particularly volatile times. Here at FCD we pride ourselves on not only the very best rates of exchange but also in being extremely proactive for our clients, making them aware of any spikes in their favour or drops against them.

We can’t let you know if we aren’t aware of what you are looking to do so make sure you email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally. Sterling is trading at over a two year high against the Euro, a two week high against the Dollar and the highest we have seen against the Australian Dollar since March this year. If you would like to speak with one of our experienced and knowledgeable traders about any currency pairing then feel free to call us on 01494 787 478 or email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to call you personally.

Calm before the storm? (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling reached its highest level against the single currency since August 2012 reaching a peak of 1.273 this afternoon – is this the calm before the storm? With the Scottish independence vote well under-way the market is eagerly awaiting the result of the vote expected for release early Friday morning (expected around 07:00). A yes vote is likely to be catastrophic for the pound with some analysts suggesting as much as a 10% drop in value for sterling, in contrast a no vote will bring a sigh of relief to many and I would look for the pound to fund support in excess of 1% across the major currencies.

Should you wish to remove the uncertainty our trading lines will be open for another few hours and there is still time to help. Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

As against the Euro, sterling has continued its strong rally against the Australian dollar having shifted 10 cents in last 10 days (5.8%). This makes a difference of AUD 20,000 on a £200k transfer.

Data from Australia has been relatively light this week highlighting how dominant sterling has been and just how the Scottish independence vote is influencing the value of the pound. With voting having started this morning and the results scheduled for 07:30 tomorrow morning, the next 24 hours are likely to be extremely volatile. I for one believe the ‘no’ camp will prevail and this is bound to lend further support to sterling and I would look for a shift towards 1.85.

Overnight the RBA bulletin gave little insight as to future monetary policy but I still believe the RBA will be uncomfortable with the value of the dollar and this 10 cent shift will have been a welcome move

To get assistance with your foreign exchange and to get the best deal on the market email Mike for more information at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Scottish Referendum still dominating the headlines and causing wide swings for sterling exchange rates. (Ben Amrany)

So we are getting closer and closer to the key Scottish referendum tomorrow. The markets over the last couple of weeks have been extremely volatile purely on the back of will the YES or NO campaign be victorious. We are expecting voting to start tomorrow with the decision filtering through in the early hours of Friday morning.

The way that I see it is as follows. There is likely to be a major reaction for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a massive sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

One of the main reasons why the pound could decline by so much and for so long should the YES campaign win would be due to the reaction from the Bank of England. Interest rate hikes could be pushed back further from the expected Spring 15 target and another bout of Quantitative easing has been muted to get the markets moving should the unlikely happen. This could be disastrous for those looking at buying EUR, AUD, NZD & USD.

For those looking at selling the pound the risk to gain ratio is not worth taking the gamble on what may occur. With the polls so close at the moment the risks of losing thousands of the currency you need to buy by waiting until after the vote could be extremely costly and we have seen many clients capitalise on the current rates due to the uncertainty. Although we believe the NO vote to independence will happen it is not inconceivable that the polls and bookies are incorrect and we could be in for one of the largest historical shocks of our time.

So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then speak with myself Ben Amrany and I will explain the options available to you and how best to minimise any risks you have on the currency.  You can email me at bma@currencies.co.uk 

In other news the Minutes from the Bank of England’s last interest rate decision showed no change in the voting with a split of 7-2 not voting for a rate hike. Unemployment also dipped slightly which assisted the pounds gains so now eyes will be firmly on retail figures tomorrow and that key vote.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

 

 

 

The Scottish Referendum, Inflation, Jobs, Bank of England, AND US Federal Reserve All Impacting On GBP Exchange Rates (Colm Gilhooly)

Where to start today?  The Scottish Referendum, EU inflation, UK jobs, Bank of England Minutes, US inflation, and the Federal Reserve rate announcements all fighting for headline space so let’s be quick.

No change from the Bank of England as expected, but UK unemployment rates have fallen again which is good news for the UK economy.  EU inflation was either on or slightly above forecast depending on which measure you look at, although it still won’t be significant enough for the ECB to be able to say their recent measures are working quite yet.  Later today we have US inflation, with the Fed Reserve decision due at 7.00 this evening UK time- US data of late has been getting better and there is a chance the Fed may signal they are getting closer to an interest rate rise.  If this is the case it could be a shot in the arm for the Dollar, although a more dovish stance could see the Dollar give up some of its gains.

All of this is being dwarfed by the Scottish Referendum- recent polls put the No Campaign ahead at 52% and sterling rallied over the last 24 hours.  However the margin for error is still too great for markets to have any certainty.  The general guide seems to be that a No vote on Thursday will see sterling experience a relief rally and gain some ground.  A Yes vote however could see a sharp drop in sterling’s value as markets and bookmakers are still pricing in a No vote at present.
To this end, and with so much at stake, why not get in touch and see what rates and contract options we can offer?  You can even fix your exchange rate for a date in the future if you are worried about the upcoming volatility.  Simply email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Have you prepared for the Yes vote? Crazier things have happened….

The pound looks likely to continue to rise as the outcome of the referendum is priced in more heavily to be a No vote. Investors are betting that it will indeed be a No vote and this should cause GBP strength. I personally feel a Yes vote is being discounted far too easily…

I think we are looking at greater chance of a Yes vote for the following reasons

- Demographics of the people being polled. I think naturally the more affluent Scots will be the ones most likely to respond to the polls. The Yes voters are less likely to care about the economic arguments and favour the Yes vote for Nationalistic and emotive reasons. I

-  The ‘Braveheart’ factor. Once put in the booth and owing to the way the question is framed will many a Scot feel inclined to support their Scottish heritage or the less understood British roots?

Some reports have factored the losses for sterling at 10% if it is a Yes vote. I personally would expect around 5% losses if we see the Yes vote but with a further decline longer term once the vote has been digested. Sterling is favoured because they expect the UK to raise rates next year, losing Scotland may lead to more QE and we could be at 1.15 on GBPEUR by Christmas, 1.50 on GBPUSD.

I think the Yes vote is being too heavily discounted and suggest anyone considering making a currency exchange in the coming weeks and months utilise a Stop / Loss and Limit order. Simply put this guarantees you wont lose more than you need and if it spikes higher you get the better rates.

To discuss strategies to maximise your exchange rate please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a specialist foreign exchange broker in the UK assisting clients all over the world manage their FX strategy.

A Volatile Week for the Pound (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a volatile week for GBP, with uncertainty surrounding the Scottish referendum having a negative impact on the Pound. We started the week with news of a poll that had the vote at 51% in favour of Scottish independence and this sent the markets into panic mode, with GBP/EUR rates dropping by over a cent. Since then we have heard mixed opinions from various figureheads but it does seem as if the initial poll was distorted and in fact the No vote was still the preference of the majority.

GBP/EUR rates are now reflecting this opinion, with a move back towards 1.26 during yesterday’s trading. We’ve also heard from Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark carney this week, who indicated we may see an interest rate hike in the UK by Spring 2015. This is the first time he has given a specific timeframe and this news also helped to support Sterling recovery, from the early week losses against both the EUR & USD.

GBP/USD rates have also seen a number of spikes this week with the USD still holding firm in the low 1.60’s, as it continues to realign itself against GBP after a rocky few months. It now seems inevitable that we will see GBP/USD head back below 1,60 on the exchange and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this before the end of the year.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Market volatility set to continue in the run up to the Scottish Independence vote on the 18th (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have found some support today as the latest poll for the Scottish independence vote suggested the vote for no was creeping ahead of the yes camp. This volatility is set to continue in the run up to the vote on the 18th.

With so much focus on this vote it is easy to forget the important data releases that are still scheduled. Tomorrow’s data is focused mainly on the Euro Zone and US with employment figures and industrial production data released by Eurostat at 10:00 tomorrow morning, followed by the important US retail sales data state side at 13:30.

Retails sales data is expected to show a good improvement and should in theory lend support to the greenback. It is important to keep an eye on all data sets as it is very easy to simply focus on one area. Of course the Scottish referendum vote is the main driver for sterling currently but should you like an overview of other important releases and the potential impact they might have on your currency transfer then please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

AUD

Following the pounds losses earlier this week (due to Sundays poll suggesting the ‘yes’ vote was taking the lead in the Scottish referendum) the pound has rebounded five cents or nearly 3% since Monday. The move came about as the latest opinion poll puts the ‘no’ vote at 53%  - for me the vote is likely to be a no and it is this that I believe will lend more support to sterling and push levels back though the 1.80 level. For this reasons should you be selling AUD then current rates should still look like an opportunity.

Overnight the Australian unemployment data fell to 6.1% from 6.4% but did little to affect the AUD exchange rate suggesting the current market is dominated by the movement of sterling. This volatility is set to continue for the next week until the vote passes on the 18th.

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478. To help you make the most of your currency it is important you get as much information as possible. Our market knowledge is available for any client and we are happy to assist with any bank to bank money exchange not matter how big or small. For more information please email Mike mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

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