Category Archives: USD

Sterling Exchange Rates Remain Strong (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been another volatile week for Sterling, with big swings against most of the major currencies. We saw GBP/EUR rates spike back to an 8 year high before falling away during the week and with global uncertainty due to the Greek crisis, we have seen investors sell off their EUR positions. This has helped boost the USD, which is always considered a safe haven currency in times of global unrest and in turn this has boosted the Greenbacks position against Sterling over the past couple of days.

The biggest swing we have seen however has come today on GBP/AUD rates, which has seen the Pound gain over 2 cents and moved the pair back out to a fresh 6 year high. Australian Retail Sales figures were released overnight and came out worse than expected at 0.3%. This coupled with positive UK data this week has helped boost Sterling’s value and I would be very tempted to take advantage of the current spike and not gamble on such a volatile market.

GBP/EUR rates have dipped from the high of last weekend but still look very attractive for EUR buyers. With so much uncertainty surrounding Greece it is very difficult to predict exactly how the situation will evolve. Personally I feel a deal will be reached next week but with a referendum scheduled for Sunday, when the Greek public will decide whether or not to accept the proposals being put forward by Greece’s creditors, we may find the landscape and market conditions have changed considerably by then.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Mixed day for Sterling on the Markets as we await progress on Greek talks (Joshua Privett)

For once reason the main highlight for the day wasn’t Greece and the Eurozone, but rather the USD.

Today is always an incredibly volatile period on the monthly calender where a swathe of employment figures for the US economy are released. In this instance it was a mixture of positive and negative news. But the markets were expecting an entirely positive day, so the Dollar actually weakened against most major currencies. Non-farm payroll data came out much lower than expected, but it still was enough to nudge the employment rate even lower. This shows that positive data, the kind that would even make it into news headlines, does not necessarily translate into favourable buying rates. For more information on how this data affects USD and CAD buying rates click here.

Polling data released today suggested that the Greeks would vote to accept their creditors demands in order to receive bailout money. This is only preliminary, and after the recent UK election polling data is no longer treated with the same certainty it once was. But it was enough to cease all of the capital flying out of the Eurozone in the face of the Greek crisis. This capital had previously been boosting the value of Sterling artificially on the markets, however, now that it has stopped the ‘bubble’ has started to deflate. As such Sterling dipped below 1.40 briefly today, making a lot of Euro buyers nervous that this was a sign of things to come.

Personally I feel that dropping rates aren’t necessarily a sign that the Greek crisis is over, people are simply buying Euros while the rates are so cheap, which increases the value of the Euro through increased demand. Unfortunately, this means those who don’t buy early have to pay more.

I would recommend that those who have a Euro requirement to email me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk detailing your situation and your timeline for when you need to complete a transfer. I can give you some tailored advice, and this will allow us to stay in contact directly during what is likely to be a dramatic and unpredictable few days on the political scene. You will have access to my views throughout the day, rather than general snippets from these posts once or twice per day.

Similarly if you have a USD requirement and your plans were changed today, email me for more information on where the rates will likely be when you require a transfer and/or for a free quote.

Just what will happen with Greece and how will this impact sterling exchange rates?

Trying to figure out what is next with Greece is a very difficult thing. We just don’t know how the markets will react when there is such a wide range of outcomes! The sensible thing in this case is to plan for all eventualities I feel and take stock of the current rates. Do not be upset if you find out that the rate you had been expecting and banking on is no longer available next week! Trying to make plans in such an uncertain market is of course no easy feat but something I would suggest doing in this environment.

If you need to buy a foreign currency with sterling the current exchange rates are much improved compared to recent years. There is a strong likelihood they could dip once a Greek deal is achieved since many foreign currencies will strengthen as investor confidence returns to the market. The Euro will rise on the back of any positive news for Greece and commodity currencies like the AUD, NZD and CAD will also strengthen. The USD should weaken as it goes against the trend, tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll for the US is the big news for the end of the week. For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Currency Exchange Forecast – When to BUY or SELL GBP / EUR / USD ( Andrew Bromley )

Once again Greece is the main on-going focus, with even the BBC printing articles indicating a Greek exit. Sundays emergency referendum has the makings of the ‘beginning of the end’ for the Greek membership of the Eurozone, as Alexis Tsipras (Greek PM) is openly recommending a NO vote. This would essentially cut Greece out of the Euro and Eurozone and a return of the Drachma could be on the cards. I personally do think that the Greek people will vote NO, however the exit from the Eurozone will be a drawn out as their debt negotiations!

I’d be looking to SELL Euros whilst rates are in the 1.40s as there is a much greater risk of rates pushing higher than dropping to say 1.35! Euro buyers may be wise to move when rates push north of 1.4125…

Unspectacular GDP details this morning have not boosted the Pound – neither did the Eurozone inflation figures that were released shortly after…

USD

Key US Nonfarm Payroll figures dominate this weeks USD data, as Dollar holders hope for both an improved unemployment figure and a good amount of new jobs created.

I personally think that the 1.57s are the top of the current trading range with a move back towards the 1.50 level more realistic. Although this won’t be a swift drop I wouldn’t be surprised to see levels get to 1.55 by the end of the week.

The Dollar should also benefit from a flow of currency from Euro holders as fear of a Greek exit will tempt investors to leave the single currency.

If you do have an exchange requirement feel free to get in touch. Either drop me an email to AJB@currencies.co.uk or call the trading line directly on 01494 787 478.

look forward to hearing from you…

 

Greece to leave the Euro? Exchange Rate Forecast – When to BUY or SELL EUR USD – Andrew Bromley

Eurozone – Euro Crisis

2015 is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic years in recent trading history. This weekends shock move towards a Greek debt default has made predicting the outcome even harder. I personally remain of the opinion that Greece will remain in the Eurozone and Euro, but tomorrows repayment of €1.6 Bn Euros looks set to be unpaid. With a payment of over €3 Bn due next month

Greece has declared this week as a public holiday in order to set up for an extraordinary referendum on Sunday as to whether or not to stay in the Eurozone.

Here’s a point to note… The average Greek pensioner has had their payments cut by 40% and are supporting 3 generations. Why would they vote to stay in the Eurozone when there is no light at the end of the tunnel?!

Obviously that is an opinion and realistically what the negotiating parties are attempting to avoid. Could we see yet another extension to say March 2016??

All in all things are pretty bleak for Euro holders, especially those holding their Euros in  Greece. Unfortunately Greece look set to implement capital controls, preventing withdrawals of over €60 per day from leaving the banks. This too little too late as over €1 Bn has been leaving the country daily for the last few weeks, drastically wiping value off of the bank balance sheets.

Those with Euros to sell, you should have nerves of steel if you’re considering holding on! Not only is the Greek situation so dire but if you’re buying GBP, don’t expect the Pound to hand much ground back to the ‘single currency’. With the UK set to raise interest rates in 2016 it should go from strength to strength.

USD Forecast

A tricky Nonfarm Payroll announcement is the key data for the week, this Thursday rather than Friday (due to Independence Day on Friday). I’m personally still in the camp believing a rate hike will materialise in September. A strong ‘print’ for the Nonfarm figures would certainly be good news for the Greenback and would certainly turn some of the analysts against the hike in to a more positive position. Crucially the unemployment rate has worsened over the last few months – it is important to see this improve.

CAD Exchange Rates

A big swing has been seen as the weekend closed in the 1.93s, recovering to the 1.95s comfortably this afternoon. Feel free to take a look at www.cadforecast.com for a more in-depth CAD overview. I personally think the Pound is heading to the 2.0 level but with a few slips en-route. I’d therefore look at fixing whilst the market is 1.95 and above to secure levels that offer currently a 7 year high.

If you have a currency transfer and would like to discuss it feel free to drop me a line. I can assist you in achieving award winning exchange rates, but also simplifying the process…

(The currencies discussed are a snapshot – all ‘major’ currency requirements looked at!)

Either email me – AJB@currencies.co.uk

or call the trading line 01494 787 478 and quote this blog!

Have a good evening

Andrew Bromley

 

 

1.43 on the markets! Two days to save the Euro!

GBPEUR has rocketed as Asian markets open and investors begin dumping the Euro in anticipation of the two most important days in the history of the Euro. What happens now will decide not just Greece’s fate but also the rest of the Eurozone. Sterling is benefitting rising against all currencies so far but to make a firm prediction on just what will happen is incredibly difficult.

There is a simple formula to follow here. As the uncertainty increases with no deal the Euro will weaken and the pound should rise. This will only be true up to a point where if Greece leaves the Euro the UK would suffer some financial losses. The USD will rise as it has done possibly significantly if Greece does leave. The commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD are struggling with the uncertainty too!

If a deal is struck then the Euro should recover and sterling which had benefitted from safe haven funds, weaken. A deal is what I believe will happen because I don’t think the alternative is worth contmeplating! One thing is for sure the next couple of days are significant for anyone with a currency transfer to consider. If you wish to get the latest news and understand more about what is and will drive your exchange please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

We are here to provide information but also offer a service for international money transfers at the best exchange rates. If you wish to learn more and check your exchange rates please contact me and I hope you see your rate!

Jonathan

jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Business hours 00 44 1494 787 478

The Greek Deadline is nearly upon us! (Daniel Johnson)

Greek ministers failed to find a solution regarding Greece’s debt crisis. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has stated that the relationship between the two parties is reaching breaking point and it now appears that we’re almost at a stalemate. Greece has until Tuesday to repay the IMF €1.6bn or face a default and a possible ‘Grexit’.

If you a Euro buyer I think you are in an excellent position, buying in the 1.40s is an incredible rate to purchase at. Euro sellers however it is a serious gamble to hang on, if there is a Grexit you could be in an awful spot for a long time.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

 

Relatively quiet day on the markets sees some analysts looking ahead into 2016 (Joshua Privett)

After months of massive market swings today was a day where everything ‘fell into place’ on the currency markets. We are still in limbo concerning the Greek crisis, all US data releases came in as expected (no surprises = no change in currency rates), and no dramatic political events dominated news coverage. This has given many market participants a chance to finally take a breath and look at their current position.

We are very close to 8 year highs for GBP-EUR rates, it’s easy to see that there is a lot more room for the rates to come down than continue to push into new highs. We have been shown already just how much these current rates depend on the financial crisis in Greece. Previously when a deal has been close the rates have swung down almost 5 cents in the space of a week of trading.

Tuesday, when Greece finally are forced to make a deal before a debt repayment to the IMF is due, will likely produce the same result. A substantial chunk of the uncertainty surrounding the Euro at the moment will be removed, causing investors to flock to the single currency once more, looking for easy returns when the currency starts to gain value. Those looking to buy Euros, personally I would be looking to move before the weekend to secure these historic highs and avoid any good news revealing itself over the weekend and dampening any rate you were looking to achieve. Euro sellers should find some tempting opportunities next week after a weeks of dismay at where the rates have been travelling.

Similarly with the GBP-USD and GBP-CAD (Canadian Dollar) both are at historic highs recently, with the USD at the best it’s been in 2015 and the CAD the best in 7 years, those looking to purchase either should seriously consider doing so ahead of any future requirements. Why wait when the Pound will likely be held in check by a struggling Eurozone, weakening its appeal compared to its partners over the Atlantic? For more information on current trends click here.

With buying opportunities across the board, those looking to use Sterling as a purchasing currency should consider locking in the rates as they currently are in a forward contract. This can peg the rates for up to 12 months, or as short as a few weeks, so that you do not leave yourself exposed for what is expected to be an incredibly volatile end of the month. Even a movement of 1 cent could make property purchases thousands of pounds more expensive, it makes little sense to gamble on further gains when the rates available are so attractive. Email me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk for more details, tailored advice to your situation, and a free quote on your transfer.

*Special Report*

With some analysts focussing entirely on the short term – e.g. ‘Consensus expectations are the Euro could rally sharply if Greece strike a new debt relief deal’, others are starting to consider the more long-term implications. Researchers at Commerzbank see gradual climbs towards 1.45 for the Euro in 2016.

This is mainly due to Euro weakness they believe, as Sterling is expected to struggle against all other currencies due to disinflationary growth. So we will not necessarily perform strongly on the currency markets, but we won’t be as bad as our counter-parts in the single currency. So a mixed report, showing this volatility will be continuing heavily. We will have a lot to write about, and you will have a lot to consider. I would not take such predictions at face value, the markets are currently so volatile that forecasting more than 3 months in advance is a stretch, but it is interesting to highlight just how unrepresentative GBP-EUR rates can be for the general strength of Sterling across the board.

 

Greek Bailout Negotiations Continue (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rate continue to be affected by the unstable economic situation in Greece and as a result we have seen the Pound spike back above 1.40 this week. The Greek debt crisis continues to dominate headlines and with no agreement yet in place and with Tuesday’s repayment deadline fast approaching, the situation is looking very grave indeed.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has today resumed talks with Greece’s creditors, in the hope that an agreement can finally be reached after days of unproductive talks. Whilst Greece is trying to provide a reform package that will satisfy its international creditors, it is refusing to budge on key issues including pensions and public-sector wages. This is proving to be a major sticking point and unless Greece will negotiate the IMF’s position is unlikely to change. If an agreement is not reached then Greece will be given no further funds from their bailout package and will default on their debt, a scenario which is likely to spell the end of their participation in the single union.

However, I am still of the opinion that this scenario remains unlikely, certainly in the short-term. The IMF & ECB have remained steadfast in their support of Greece’s continuation as a member of the EUR and far too time, energy and most importantly money has been thrown at the situation for them to allow to implode. ECB President Mario Draghi will not want to lose Greece on his watch and my instinct tells me that they will most likely come to an 11th hour solution, which will sweep this under the carpet for another 6 months until we find ourselves in a similar situation again.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What is around the corner?

What is just around the corner on exchange rates? Well it would appear that sterling is in line for further improvements as investors frustrations with the lack of progress with Greece and the inconsistency of US economic data persist. Don’t get me wrong the UK is hardly setting the world on fire and there is still the mammoth debt mountain to overcome, but at least the UK has control over its economic policies and the economy is growing. As so often is the case on exchange rates it is not a case of which is the best but which isn’t the worst! Below is a light summary on our most heavily traded and reported currencies, I hope you find the information useful. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist foreign exchange dealer assisting private individuals and business with their foreign exchange exposure. If you are buying or selling a foreign currency and wish for some useful insight and finding out if a better rate is possible please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

STERLING The pound has been performing well as economic data continues to show improvements in the Unemployment rate and growth in the all important service sector which comprises 75% of the UK economy and therefore UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). With the UK election out of the way and a stable business friendly government in power the UK and the pound should continue to benefit from uncertainty elsewhere. The hallowed path back to raising interest rates is still rocky but recent Bank of England comments have suggested a rate hike as early as August. Sterling is up at multi year highs against most currencies so there are strong arguments to lock in these levels to remove the risk. If you need to sell or buy the pound and wish to learn of important events that will affect your exchange rate please call me on 01494 787 478 and ask to speak to Jonathan. Alternatively email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

EURO The Euro has come unstuck this year as years of inaction over Greek debt issues finally catch up. I believe a deal will be struck but the uncertainty is weighing heavily on investors confidence and the Euro will struggle to make too much of a comeback. Greece will remain in the Euro but we probably won’t know exactly if this ‘deal’ will go ahead until next week. The Euro will of course rise once the deal is agreed but all Greece’s creditors are doing is postponing the problems for another day. If you need to sell Euros I would suggest moving sooner to get into a more stable currency like sterling to avoid the risk of further losses. The next few days are going to be vital for the Euro so if you are looking to buy or sell Euros please contact me to discuss and be kept up to date with the latest news.

US DOLLAR US GDP has shown the US  is struggling and despite strong improvements in the US labour market the expectations the US would be raising interest rates in 2015 are looking ever more uncertain. Further improvements or deteriorations in the US economy will be the key determinant in whether or not we actually see a rate hike this year, the Federal Reserve have confirmed this. Don’t forget the US dollar reacts to global uncertainty, if investors are worried about what is happening in the future they will buy dollars to ‘hedge’ against the uncertainty. There is correlation between USD strength and increased Greek uncertainty. If you need to buy or sell the USD I think it more likely the the dollar will be weaker in the future, particularly against a rising pound.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR The Aussie is likely to strengthen in the near term as it has weakened significantly in recent months which will undoubtedly have helped boost Australian exports. China is performing well and I expect once a Greek deal is finalised the Australian dollar will rise. Longer term we might see the Aussie weaken if they cut their base interest rate but Glenn Stevens  Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently stated slack in the economy will not be picked up by cutting further their base rate. I would expect a further rate cut perhaps towards the end of the year but suggest buying Aussies sooner particularly since the rate is so good at over 2 AUD per GBP!

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR The Kiwi has weakened any may yet have further to fall with the currency experiencing a major sell off owing to lower demand for the currency following the rate cut to 3.25% earlier this month. With further easing on the cards by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further falls seem likely. If you need to sell Kiwis I would suggest moving sooner as painful as it might be. Please contact me for more information on the timing of such transfers.

CANADIAN DOLLAR All the commodity currencies have been under pressure in the last few weeks, the CAD is no exception. On balance further CAD weakness seems probable as economic activity of their main trading partner the US slows and we also see Oil prices much lower in 2015 than previous years.

SOUTH AFRICAN RAND The Rand has weakened significantly as commodities suffer and political uncertainty continues to put pressure on the South African currency. Unfortunately any path back to strength for the Rand will be shortlived and if buying or selling this volatile currency I suggest making plans in advance.

What next? The pound is likely to rise further against most currencies as the scenarios above play out. Unfortunately there are never any guarantees on exchange rates and the only way to really know your price is to buy. The timing of when to do that is critical however and arming yourself with information is the best way to make an informed decision.

My name is Jonathan and as well as writing the blogs, have been quoted in national newspapers and helped thousands of clients with their foreign exchange payments. Whether moving overseas and making a one off payment or moving back to the UK making plans with your foreign exchange payments is key to getting the most for your money and making your life less stressful.

I am very confident I can offer some expertise and information to make your life easier plus save you some money in the process. For further information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

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