Category Archives: USD

Sterling Exchange Rates Slide as Brexit Fast Approaches (James Lovick)

The pound as of this morning is firmly back under pressure against most of the major currencies with Brexit now fast approaching having started 2017. GBP EUR has slipped to below 1.17 this morning and this is most likely as a result of the new appointment of Sir Tim Barrow as the UK’s new Ambassador to the EU. The drop in sterling in my view is likely to be attributable to the perception that this change of Ambassador could help Theresa May push for the “hard” Brexit option which the markets generally perceive as high risk for sterling and hence the weakness in the pound.

Politics will be a central theme for sterling exchange rates as we approach 31st March, the date by which UK Prime Minister Theresa May will formally give notice that Britain is leaving the EU. Developments over Brexit are changing virtually by the day and this is having a real impact on the price of sterling. For up to date information and guidance with regards timing a currency exchange then feel free to make contact and we can try and assist.

Although European politics will have a major part to play for Euro exchange rates, the first major election in the Netherlands won’t be held until March. My view is that these European elections could be very damaging for the Euro although for the next three months it is Brexit which is likely to be the major driving force and which steals the headlines.

As such those clients needing to buy Euros are more likely to be hindered by the nervousness and uncertainty over Brexit over these next few months. Those clients holding pounds needing to buy Euros or US dollars for example are unlikely to see major improvements but there will be some opportunities in these markets. For those clients that need to buy sterling and are selling Euros then there could be some sizeable gains to be taken advantage of as we approach 31st March,.

On a more upbeat note the pound has received some small positive releases from the manufacturing and construction sectors following very strong Purchasing Managers Index surveys for these sectors. The numbers arrived better than expected in both cases which highlights optimism for the British economy.

However UK household borrowing has now risen to the highest levels since the financial crisis of 2008. This is a worrying development especially at a time when interest rate policy by central banks is at a turning point. News like this is not going to help drive the pound higher when debt levels are at such high levels.

If you would like further information on any of the major currencies to include GBP, EUR USD, AUD and NZD and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Exchange rates for buying Euros and Dollars showing mixed results to begin the New Year (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has begun the year without much clear direction following what had been quite a difficult festive period for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have shown some gains whilst anyone with an Australian Dollar interest has suffered the most so far in 2017, with a loss of 3 cents on GBP/AUD recorded within the past 48 hours.

Frankly, this is a return to some normality on currency markets. With the Brexit dominating headlines for the final 6 months of last year, markets were remaining flat until any little piece or morsel of news came our regarding the mechanics of the Leave process, and many other events were largely ignored.

Some are now arguing that markets have adjusted to this new ‘reality’ of a long and pro-longed Brexit negotiation and are beginning to return to some semblance of normality. Rates to buy Euros, US Dollars and Australian Dollars now seem to be paying attention to daily releases in economic performance data which had largely been ignored for the last 6 months when determining the value of each major currency.

For example Sterling enjoyed strength to begin the year when performance figures for our manufacturing sector were through the roof (as a cheaper Pound encourages buyers to come to the UK’s shores), and the Euro benefited from similarly positive inflation figures released at 10:00 this morning. This explains the roller-coaster on GBP/EUR over the past few days as both have gained value against the other.

A medium-term look at Sterling exchange rates still sees potential opportunity between the 12-17 January when it is expected the Supreme Court decision on Parliament’s role in leaving the EU will be decided.

The heavy expectation is for the Supreme Court to uphold the Judicial Court’s decision in November to allow Parliament the vote on triggering Article 50, which contributed to the strong Sterling boost that month – and is why most major financial institutions expect a mirroring of this Sterling strength in January.

In the short-term, we can look to economic data for clues on forecasts for Sterling Euro, Sterling US Dollar and Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates.

The key piece of data this week will be Friday’s unemployment figures in the US, which will send ripples throughout the financial markets, and if last month’s was anything to go by, will likely present further opportunities for Euro and Australian Dollar buyers alike.

With a positive short-term view for anyone buying a foreign currency, and the anticipation of medium term gains, anyone looking to sell Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars will be wise to look at their options to protect an upcoming transfer into Sterling from becoming more expensive.

Anyone with a foreign currency purchase later on in the year would be best placed to monitor the markets over the next few weeks, and if you do not wish to leave yourself exposed in the run up to the triggering of Article 50, can secure an exchange rate there and then if any tempting opportunities emerge, whether for an immediate transfer or one planned for the future – it is a simple process to pre-book your currency using the exchange rates available that day.

I strongly recommend that if you have a planned transfer either to buy or sell Euros or Dollars before April this year, you should contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I will respond as soon as I am able to discuss a strategy for your transfer to ensure tempting levels are seized quickly, and that your upcoming transfer is protected from any prospective dips in the marketplace.

Furthermore, I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation should save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I am happy to provide a quote for your transfer to demonstrate this.

I have had quite a few new clients recently who said their previous broker suggested they had to move immediately with the formal Brexit proceedings looming, but in this market, as has been proven in recent months, there are still heavy opportunities for foreign currency buyers even in the next few weeks.

 

 

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound made gains against its EUR counterpart during the first day of 2017 trading, following positive UK Manufacturing data released yesterday morning.

The figure came in well above market expectation and this immediately gave Sterling a boost, although it still struggled to make any significant impact against the USD.

GBP/EUR rates spiked by over a cent, with the pair hitting 1.1792 at this morning’s high. This has once again presented those clients holding Sterling with an opportunity and considering the recent volatility on the pair and the fact Sterling is struggling to sustain these improvements, I would be very tempted to take advantage if I had a short-term GBP/EUR requirement.

We are still no closer to understanding how we will facilitate our exit from the EU, when Article 50 is triggered (assuming the timeline remains the same) in March. This market uncertainty has been a huge weight around the UK economies shoulders and as such the Pound has struggled to make sustainable improvement against the major currencies.

With the debate continuing to rumble on as to whether we are going to see a soft or hard Brexit, the market and investors are continually having to second guess the likely outcome. This means that any improvements for the Pound have been relatively short-lived and this was one of the main reasons I felt clients who were holding Sterling positions should be looking to take advantage of any short-term spikes.

The UK economy remains extremely fragile and whilst any information released by UK Prime Minister Theresa May regarding how we will facilitate our Brexit, is likely to help remove some of this uncertainty, so far we are yet to hear any real plan or long-term vision.

Looking ahead and we have UK Construction data out this morning followed by Services figures on Thursday, so expect further movement for Sterling over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make, we have a team of experienced brokers who can help guide you through this turbulent market and provide you with the best exchange rates under any market conditions. If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to call us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Economic data out this week to impact your currency exchange (Daniel Wright)

First and foremost a Happy New Year to all of our regular readers along with those visiting the site for the first time!

We have had a slow start to the year for Sterling exchange rates, very much like the past few weeks where the Pound has dropped off a little against most majors but there is plenty for the market to get its teeth into this week that may turn that trend around.

Tomorrow morning we have PMI Construction data for the U.K for December, and with the weather in December being considerably better than that of last year I would not be surprised to see a slight improvement year on year.

Later tomorrow evening we also have the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from their last interest rate decision. This can impact all major currencies as any comments on future interest rate changes may lead to a great deal of money moving around the world.

on Thursday morning we have Markit services PMI for the U.K in December. With the services sector being responsible for a large part of the growth figures in the U.K this can also be extremely important and expectations are for a slight drop off from the previous month, however I would not be surprised to see something a little more favourable in what may be a good week for Sterling exchange rates.

Finally on Friday we have another fairly bit data release over in the U.S in the form of Non-Farm Payroll data. Non-Farm data is the number of people in Non-agricultural employment (due to this being seasonal) and can have a huge impact on global attitude to risk.

Predictions for this data release can be way out so the market may price in one result yet the release can be quite a bit different so if you have the requirement to move any currency anywhere in the world then it is worth keeping your eye on the market at 13:30pm on Friday afternoon.

Here at Pound Sterling Forecast we do not only pride ourselves on providing regular and non-biased market information but we all work for one of the top foreign exchange brokerages in the U.K too.

If you have a currency requirement either now or in the coming months and you would like to maximise your exchange rate then we can also help with that too.

Feel free to contact me personally with  brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you. We deal with bank to bank exchanges ranging from smaller sums up to multi-million Pound transactions, unfortunately we cannot assist with travel money.

All you need to do is email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you at the earliest possibility.

 

Sterling still struggles as investors seek a safer haven to bring in the new year (Daniel Wright)

The Pound is not having the greatest end to 2016, particularly against the Dollar.

It appears investors and speculators are stepping away from Sterling and taking their profits after a slight gain seen by the Pound over the past few weeks of trading.

As we ease into the final few days of the year there are no major signs that this will turn around so if you have a foreign currency to purchase with Sterling in the next few days it may be prudent to look at doing something sooner rather than later.

As we move into 2017 the main focus will be on the actions of the Supreme Court and whether or not they do decide to overturn the ruling over article 50. Sterling exchange rates may move suddenly straight after the result is released and following this I would not be surprised to see yet another bout of jawboning, speculation and issues hanging around the matter that will no doubt add to the market volatility.

My personal opinion is that although this may be a potential banana skin, I feel the Pound is still greatly undervalued and that Sterling exchange rates should have a good recovery to look forward to, we just need to get all of the negative press out of the way first!

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange in the coming days, weeks, months or indeed years then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally. The company that we all work for assists clients with large currency exchanges day in, day out and we have a base of over 90,000 satisfied clients.

We pride ourselves on highly competitive rates of exchange along with the very top level of customer service, and I would be extremely surprised if we could not save you money over your bank or current broker, along with offering you a smoother service.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) by emailing djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally to discuss the various options available to you and answer any questions or queries you may have too. I look forward to speaking with you.

Sterling’s Value Drops Ahead of Christmas Slowdown (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has started to lose value over the past 48 hours, with a downturn against both the EUR & USD.

The Pound has performed much better recently, in line with an improved run of economic data emanating out of the UK. Despite on-going concerns surrounding our future growth prospects due to our upcoming Brexit, the UK economy does seem to be moving forward more positively and this has been reflected in Sterling’s value.

GBP/EUR rates touched 1.20 on more than one occasion recently and GBP/USD was putting pressure on 1.28 only a few weeks ago.

However, since then GBP/EUR have retracted towards 1.17 with the Pound finding a lot of resistance around the 1.20 mark, whilst GBP/USD rates have slipped alarmingly below 1.23. This proves how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors and it will take a lot more than a run of positive economic figures to convince the markets that the UK economy can move forward sustainable following our Brexit next year.

This is likely dominate market sentiment for months, possibly even years to come and as such I would be wary about putting too much faith in sustainable Sterling strength. Until we have a clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit the uncertainty that this has created will handicap any major advances for the Pound in my opinion.

I do feel as we move into 2017 and assuming we do get some factual information released about how the UK economy will move forward post Brexit, that economic issues manifesting themselves inside the Eurozone will inadvertently push Sterling’s value up. However, I would be prepared to gamble on this and as such I would be taking advantage of the 4-5 cent improvement seen for those clients holding the Pound over the past month.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

When shall I Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR

I feel long term we will see Sterling rally against the Euro, I feel it is chronically undervalued at present. The only reason the pound is below 1.20 is due to the electorate’s decision to leave the EU. The key factor in the pound’s value is trade negotiations, which currently leaves the nations economy in uncertainty. The High Court Judgement as to whether the government will vote on the triggering of Article 50 is due to complete in early January and this will determine whether there is a hard or soft Brexit. A hard Brexit would weaken the pound substantially. If you have to buy Euros short term and wish to eliminate any risk from your trade it may be wise take advantage of current levels.

Medium to long term as trade negotiations become more apparent Sterling should gain strength. The Euro also has some serious underlying problems which could rear their head. Political uncertainty  caused by the emergence of right wing groups could cause weakness. Also we have Italian Banks bad loans in excess of €360bn, A debt crisis in Greece and shockingly low inflation. Any of these factors could severely weaken the Euro.

GBP/USD

Following the FED’s decision to hike rates and forward planning indicating there could be as many as three more. I think the US dollar has further ground to gain on Sterling. The Dow is finishing at record highs and economic data is very strong. If I had to buy Dollars I would be moving quickly.

If  you have a currency requirement it is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board we can keeo you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. If you would would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

Sterling not feeling the festive spirit in the lead up to Christmas (Daniel Wright)

The Pound does not appear to be too jolly in the lead up the Christmas showing slight losses against most major currencies so far this week.

We have a few key economic data releases in the next few days and with slightly thinner trading levels during this time of year you can see larger swings than normal off the back of normal economic data.

For anyone that has a currently requirement coming up in the next few weeks you must be aware that leaving a position open over the festive season can be a risky strategy, especially if you are not going to be fully available to watch the markets or transfer funds should there be a big movement in your favour or against you.

Public sector net borrowing figures have been released this morning for the U.K were a little worse than expectations and we also have Consumer Confidence figures out overnight tonight and GDP (Growth) figures on Friday morning.

This is not to forget that we also have the on-going and well publicised Brexit talks and the pending Supreme Court decision on article 50 which will no doubt lead to  a large market movement. Expectations on the result of this decision are for early in January but as 2017 has shown us surprises can pop up and things do get leaked so do not be surprised if the market starts to move on rumours well in advance of this coming out.

All in all this year has been fairly jam packed with big political and Economic information which we hope we have kept you fully up to date with. If you carry out currency exchanges through your bank or a broker at present and you find our market information useful then why not give us a try. We do not only pride ourselves on providing up to date and non-biased market information but we also offer fantastic rates of exchange and a high level of customer service at the brokerage we work for too.

Pound Sterling Forecast has been running for 7 years and the brokerage we work for has been running for 17 years so we have a wealth of experience in assisting clients with currency exchanges so will be more than happy to help.

Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Pound sees tentative rises for buying Euros and Dollars ahead of the thinner trading of the Christmas period (Joshua Privett)

Buying Euro, USD and Australian Dollar exchange rates have shown a noticeable uptake ahead of the Christmas period with rates above the 1.19 level on GBP/EUR, and above 1.70 on GBP/AUD being realized ahead of markets closing for the weekend.

The gains against the Euro and Australian Dollar in particular this week were due to a lower demand for these currencies which sucked away some of their recent, and frankly over-inflated, value. The clear driving force behind this movement is attributed to the historic rise in interest rates in the US, only its second time the FED have been do so since the financial crisis.

The USD/EUR currency pairing is the most heavily traded in the world – frankly because they are the two most widely used currencies globally. So as a rule of thumb, due to the large amounts of transfers and exchanges concentrated between the pair, when one of the two currencies suddenly gets a large boost in demand, as we saw this week, the other loses value through a corresponding slackening in demand. This is why GBP/EUR briefly managed to maintain its vantage point above the 1.19 level.

The interest rate on the Australian Dollar is at record lows but still much higher than elsewhere at 1.5%, compared to the UK’s at 0.25% as an unfortunate example. However, it is traditionally seen as an unstable currency due to its links to the commodities market, so when you have a safe-haven currency which raises its base interest rate rate, investors like to opt for this safer option, and the sell-off of Aussies for US Dollars is why USD/AUD gained today, as well as GBP/AUD – tipping over the 1.70 level for the second time this week.

Moving forward however, Euro and Dollar buyers have the phenomenon of profit taking to deal with as unusual end of year market forces take hold of exchange rates over the next few weeks.

At the close of the year, and what a year it has been, traders have to consolidate their profits in a stable currency for the rough 2-week period when they are away from their desks. This protects their capital from any adverse movements in what are normally ‘safe-haven’ currencies, so that when they come back to the desks the amount of capital they are managing hasn’t been worryingly eaten into. Of course the Pound is anything but stable at the moment and will likely suffer in the sell-off that ensues.

As such anyone with a buying Euro or Dollar requirement may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid the hefty amount of risk which should be piled onto Sterling in the very near term.

Since Trump became President in November, Euro buyers have gained over 11 cents in the marketplace for GBP/EUR and 10 cents on GBP/AUD. Meaning that in real terms on a £100,000 transfer buyers have gained an additional €11,000 or $10,000 in the space of 6 weeks. Understandably, the popular option at the moment is to consolidate those gains.

The turn of the New Year has many forks in the UK and therefore the Pound between January and March which are difficult to account for ahead of time, and markets will be factoring this in to the price of Sterling moving forward which could end up being expensive for anyone with a planned Euro or Dollar based obligation to meet in the New Year.

Sterling buyers of course may consider the opposite and play the currency markets by ear as we edge closer to the Christmas period to try at catch the market at any peaks which emerge.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and a foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk over the weekend in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Pound hangs around pivotal points against a number of major currencies (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates are currently sat around a number of key levels which we may see broken through over the course of trading next week.

We have the Pound sat near 1.20 against the Euro, 1.25 against the Dollar, 1.70 against the Australian Dollar and 1.80 against the New Zealand Dollar.

Economic data for the U.K still continues to be solid post referendum and although there is the potential banana skin of article 50 and the supreme court decision hanging over the head of the Pound it does appear that the Pound is creeping back into fashion.

All 9 members of the Bank of England voted in favour of no change to interest rates on Thursday and I personally feel that the only thing holding the Pound back from being a great deal stronger is the uncertainty hanging over its head over the supreme court issue. This has the potential to knock the Pound back down again so anyone looking to exchange currency in the near term may wish to protect themselves from being caught out.

In my opinion I would not be surprised to see Sterling have a good week next week, we have thinner trading levels during the festive season so markets can move a little more than normal and i cannot see anything too negative hitting the Pound in the next week or so of trading.

If you are looking to carry out a currency exchange in the coming days, weeks or months ahead then here at Pound Sterling Forecast we can help you get both better exchange rates and an exceedingly high  level of customer service too.

You are welcome to contact me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site 7 years ago on djw@currencies.co.uk and i will be more than happy to contact you and deal with you personally.