GBPAUD exchange rates have kept up their trend of recent Aussie Dollar weakness and rates are the highest in many weeks as the Aussie government announce they are expecting a deficit this year so if you’re interested in reading more click this link Weaker economic growth from China since the turn of the year has also negatively affected the AUD exchange rate and therefore if you need to buy Australian Dollars it may be worth taking advantage of these current spikes.

GBPZAR and GBPNZD exchange rates have all felt the effect of the problems globally and we have seen Sterling improve by over 2% against these two currency pairs this week and many are targeting GBPNZD to hit 1.90 and GBPZAR  to hit 14.5. I for one would not be surprised if these figures are hit during next week but if so may not last for long.

Next week the Bank of England releases its minutes next Wednesday and on Thursday the UK releases its revised GDP figures so if you have a currency transfer to make feel free to get in touch Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk and I’d be more than happy to provide a free quote.

Jobs data out for the UK yesterday was a bit of a mixed bag. It was announced that although the number of unemployed people had risen, the overall percentage of people out of work fell. It is usually the way in the UK that as soon as some positive data comes out there is another data release out to counteract it. Although this may not be an extremely bad stat for the UK it does highlight that there is still a lot of work to do but we are going in the right direction.

I generally feel that we will see more Sterling strength in the near future as it seems that we are seeing a lot more positive data coming out of the UK at present. We have recently seen better than expected figures for Manufacturing, Construction and Services and I believe that unless something drastic happens in any of the main sectors the pound will gain some more ground.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement we have a number of different contract options that can help safeguard your funds against market movements. If you would like to speak with one of our specialist, friendly currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk

So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates?

Near future – EURO buyers may want to hold off till tomorrow when we have the last big data release for GBPEUR this week when the Eurozone confirms their Consumer Confidence figures for April.  The expectation is for this data to show a contraction so rates may climb further for GBPEUR following this news which is released at 10 am BST. Euro sellers may want to move before hand as a result.

Medium term – Next week we have UK Production Price Index, UK Retail figures, Bank of England minutes, UK GDP figures and UK Mortgage approvals.  Expectations for these releases will be more concrete on Monday so keep reading here for the latest forecasts and updates on these releases.  This should help highlight potential buy and sell opportunities when it may be the best time to trade through next week.

Longer term – A lot hinders on the new Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that starts his post at the end of June.  He may want to come in with an instant impact changing interest rates or the current asset buying program.  It may the beginning of July when we see this and is already expected to be an interesting event that may give direction to exchange rates for the following few months.

If you are in the currency market and are interested in a more personal view on how the above events could affect you, feel free to contact us on the normal number (01494 787 478) or myself personally, Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

If you would like more information on a particular subject or on events surrounding your particular transfer please speak with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the UK leave the EU? Expect pressure on sterling due to political uncertainty. Markets and investors want certainty in their investments. Fears of the damage a split Tory government, the rise of UKIP and a broken coalition would do to UK business weighed on sterling yesterday. Can Cameron tackle the ghost of conservative past and deal with the question of Europe? It is doubtful I have to say and this will weigh down the pound.

UK Growth Last months data was impressive and welcome but 0.3% is not anything to get too excited about. True the latest data sets have all been positive but the marginal improvements on what were dire figures still have a long way to go. Ultimately the UK’s stagnant housing market (particularly outside London) needs invigorating – Construction is the main drag in recent years. The second revision of growth figures at the end of the month could easily be a market mover.

Depending on which currency pair you are trading there will of course be many other things to move the market. Looking in my crystal ball (which has been pretty clear lately) I cannot see significant gains for GBP against the majors. Maybe a cent or two? Once again I see more danger of things dropping as the confidence of the last few weeks wears off.

If you have a transaction to consider I would be interested to speak to you explain the market and offer our services with a view to getting you the best deal. For more information please email on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you!

- Today 09:30 BST - Australia will release its yearly budget. This will be keenly viewed as the Australian government faces questions about its handling of the economy ahead of elections later this year. With the economy having been affected by weaker global forecasts and in particular from China, for which the Australian economy is heaviliy reliant, the outcome of the budget could be very interesting. Some analysts say that while the mining sector has been the driving force behind Australia’s steady economic expansion, other parts of the economy have stagnated or grown much less quickly. A key reason has been the strength of the AUD and the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) have been open in highlighting their concerns and may act to devalue the dollar, potentially good news for those buying dollars.

-  Wednesday 10:00 BST- anyone with an interest in the Euro should watch out for EU GDP figures. Figures are expected to stay at -0.9% but any deviation from the expected figure and watch out for volatility on Euro exchange rates.

- Wednesday 09:30 BST – UK unemployment figures expected to stay at 7.9%

- Wednesday 10:30 BST – Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report and Mervyn King press conference. The BofE publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. Watch out for any clues with regards to QE, I personally believe the Bank will stay firm on its current p[olicies until the new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July.

- Friday 00:45 BST – Japan GDP release, expected to show an increase from a flat 0% to 0.7%.

- Friday 13:30 BST -  to finish off the week on Friday we have inflation figures and unemployment data from the US at 13:30 BST.

As you can see we have plenty of data released for the rest of the week. To be kept up to date with the impact these data sets may have for your individual requirement then please contact me and I will happily run though my forecasts and run through the various contracts we can offer to help maximise your currency exchange. I am very confident I can help achieve a better rate than your current provider. Please call the office on +44 (0)1494 787478 or email me (Mike) with a brief overview of your requirement and I will gladly contact you to help with your money exchange. I can be reached at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Those of you that have an interest in GBP/EUR the next couple of days could be vital for how the currency pair performs. Tomorrow morning at 7am Germany are releasing some key inflation figures followed by the ZEW survey which shows the sentiment between investors and analysts. Often this can be a market mover and I personally feel this may give the pound an opportunity to push up to the late 1.18’s possibly 1.19. If you are selling Euros you may wish to look at securing your funds today before this may occur to stop your recent losses.

On Wednesday we will see some of the major European countries release their GDP figures. GDP is a measure of how their economy is performing and over the last couple of weeks the UK has posted a healthier picture which has strengthened the pound significantly since the Cyprus event with a gain of around 4.5%

All of the countries bar from Germany is expected to show a contraction in their economic growth. So if they do post some better than expected figures then it is on Wednesday morning that we may potentially see the Euro gain against a host of majors.

Now in the UK this Wednesday the quarterly inflation report out at 10.30 may give the pound a boost. It seems that the BoE are slowing down their QE programme. If they give any hints in their report that they are happy with the rate of inflation and the slow economic recovery this could boost the pound and recover some of the losses seen against the USD.

Could we hit 1.20 against the Euro? It would be the highest level seen this year and if we do I would highly recommend securing your Euros.  Let me know your thoughts by emailing me at bma@currencies.co.uk

Wednesday also brings a raft of unemployment figures. Unemployment is slightly falling as the slow recovery in the UK kicks into force but with 7.9% still expected to be unemployed we will need to see a fall in this figure for the pound to rise.

Please do be cautious if you have a currency transfer to make. These are two of the key releases which can cause the pound to be very volatile against a host of currencies. If you have a transfer to make in the next few weeks Wednesday’s
release may give you an indication if you should hold out a little longer before making your conversion.

If you do require exchanging funds then please do inform em of your requirement and I can explain the options available to you plus inform you how you can get a btter rate than through the banks. Just email me at bma@currencies.co.uk with your requirement and I will talk you through the options that are available to you.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR news

Following the UK holding interest rates steady at 0.5%, where they have been for over 5 years, and the asset buying program at a steady £375 billion exchange rates stayed steady.  The pound did however see a boost following better than expected data from the manufacturing sector which pushed GBPEUR rates up to a 7 day high.  Across the channel the European Monthly report had no surprises within it and eyes are now focussed on Italy, Spain, Germany and France who release their data on unemployment and GDP figures early next week. My view is that GBPEUR rates could climb up to 1.20 in the coming weeks and that 1.20 is probably more likely compared to seeing a fall down to 1.1650.

As a result I would suggest that the current levels offer an opportunity for euro sellers and euro buyers may want to hold off.  However rates of exchange never move in a straight line and there will be opportunities in the coming weeks for both buyers and sellers  who can move quickly.  The SPIKE NOTIFICATION service offered here is for this purpose – if you have not registered yet email your details including your contact details and situation to hse@currencies.co.uk. When a SPIKE takes place we will notify you so you quickly so that you can take advantage of the peaks in your favour.

Otherwise if you are a regular reader of these updates, one of over 1500 visitors a day, and you are yet to get in contact to discuss your personal situation feel free to contact us.  Call 44 (0) 1494 787 478 or email hse@currencies.co.uk for a friendly no obligation chat with one of our currency experts about how the coming events in the financial market could affect your currency transfer.

Thank you for reading,

Steve Eakins

This outcome was very much forecast and the market did very little as a result as many analysts expect little to come from the BofE until new governor Mark Carney takes over from Mervyn King in July. Following the release the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released its forecast for GDP for the last three months to include April, the figures showed a stronger than expected level of 0.8% continuing the recent positive tones coming from the UK, something that could lead to sterling strength against a number of major currencies.

GBP/EUR

Sterling exchange rates have shown a marked improvement against the single currency since the year low of 1.1370 in March. Since this time the market has peaked at 1.19 (a shift of 4.5%) but has now remained range bound between 1.1750-1.1850 since the start of May. But what now for GBP/EUR?

For me I believe the pound will begin to find further support and may break through the 1.20 barrier heading into June, however I believe when Mr Carney takes over his reign as the head of the Central Bank then I believe he will look to impose himself immediately and look to extend QE to help boost the UK economy further. Should we see this then I would expect Sterling exchange rates to fall back towards the 1.18 territory as a result. For this reason anyone looking to buy Euros I feel you may get better value in the weeks to come but those selling may wish to consider their options.

GBP/USD Exchange Rates

As against the Euro, sterling has seen a mini-recovery against the greenback rallying from the year low of 1.489 in March to 1.559 earlier this week. This again represents a 4.5% shift in less than two months and to me represents a strong buy opportunity.

For me I feel GBP/USD is reaching a peak and would expect levels to fall back towards the 1.52/53 level as again the pound is likely to come under threat from future expectations regarding QE. I also feel it is a matter of time before problems in Europe re-surface and the major benefactor is likely to be the USD.

For those looking at GBP/USD in the coming days watch out for a speech from Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon at 13:30 – positive tones from Bernanke are likely to lend support to the US dollar this afternoon.

Has the Aussie bubble burst?

In the last month the pound has rallied close to 9 cents against the AUD following weaker sentiment from China, and the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting interest rates earlier this week. This is creating some great opportunities for AUD buyers a trend that may continue.

For anyone selling AUD I would still urge you to take advantage of rates that are historically still very favourable. The average trade price for GBP/AUD for the last year sits around 1.54, so with levels currently at 1.52 you are still ahead of the game. For me the current trend and sentiment from Australia is a concern and I would expect rates to move towards 1.55 as I feel the central bank is still concerned about the strength of the Aussie and the impact this is having on the value of Australian exports. I would not be surprised to see another interest rate cut within the next 3 months, something that could devalue the AUD further.

Should you have an upcoming money exchange to arrange and you would like more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email me (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Looking at what may occur today I feel it is safe to state that we will not see the Bank of England raise interest rates. Where all sterling buyers and sellers should be cautious is with the QE decision. Due to the fact that the UK posted better than expected growth figures to avoid a triple dip recession last month I personally feel that the Bank will hold off from initiating any further QE this month. Having said that if they do unexpectedly pump more money into the economy then you may find that the pound will be under a lot of selling pressure and make your currency purchase more expensive if you are buying Euros or Dollars.

If  you are looking at buying sterling with your Euros or Dollars then you may be wise to look at your options this morning. If no QE happens then the pound may start to slightly strengthen again. At the end of last week sterling was looking like it may break through the 1.19 level but could not get through this resistance level. Could today be the day where this happens.

If you are looking at buying Euros or Dollars I would see what happens this afternoon with the release of the growth (GDP) figures. After last month’s worries of falling back into a triple dip recession which was missed you may find that this afternoons data could give the pound a further boost. Do feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk or call me in the office on 01494 787478  and ask for Ben Amrany to discuss your requirement and the options that are available to you. If you are concerned about what lays ahead for the pound we can help you minimise your risk to exchange rate fluctuations.

An overview of the pound in general has seen the currency gain quite significantly after the dreadful start to the year. Before the Cyprus event GBP/EUR was down at 1.13 and we hit a low of around 1.48 against the USD. Now the rates are hovering around 1.1825 versus the Euro and 1.5550 versus the US Dollar. The gains are much welcomed and if you feel that the pound is spiking and you are looking at capitalising in the near future let me know what your requirement is and I will look at helping you with your conversion by making you a significant saving on the rate of exchange over your high street bank.

My contact details are below should you want some assistance.

Thank you for reading.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

Personally I always felt that we would avoid recession by the skin of our teeth and whilst this has proved to be the case, predicting how GBP/EUR rates will fare over the coming months is becoming an increasingly difficult task. The recent volatility we have seen on GBP/EUR looks set to continue, as investors will be pulled between Sterling and the EUR depending on the latest set of economic figures, or the next doom and gloom speech by key political figures.

Despite the on-going negativity we should see the recent spike against the EUR and the USD as a major positive for all those looking to purchase those currencies. We have seen GBP/EUR rates spike over 2 cents in the past couple of weeks and we have seen GBP/USD move all the way through 1.55, when only a couple of months ago we were trading in the low 1.50′s. When you have an economy as weak and fragile as our own any positive movement should be valued and if I were buying either of those two currencies, I would be looking closely at my options based on the current market levels.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.