Tuesday - For sterling the first major data release will be tomorrow morning in the name of public sector net borrowing. This release captures the amount of new debt held by the UK government. We are expecting levels to come out worse than last month’s release so sterling exchange rates could take a hit tomorrow morning.

Wednesday morning will bring the biggest data release for the UK with the Bank of England’s Minutes. This really will be key as it will indicate how many members of the MPC voted for QE and by how much. If their is any indication that some members wanted more than the £50 billion then it may bring some sterling weakness as further stimulus could be on the cards in the future.

The last major release will be on Friday with revised Q4 GDP figures. This is as big a release as they come. It is expected to show a contraction in growth for the UK economy and if Q1 for 2012 comes out the same then the UK will officially be in a recession. because we are expecting a contraction this Friday the losses may not be so sever for the pound but you may be wise to act well before this release.

For the pound against a host of other currencies you may be interested in the following releases.

Germany and the EU – With a host of data from PMI to GDP rates will be extremely volatile this week. The real key mover will be events in Greece. If they cut their budget which is pretty much expected and receive the agreement for their bailout then expect to see some good Euro strength. This will be key for clients looking at selling back their Euros. Be ready to act quickly though if there is a spike in the market as it may not be around for long!!!

For the US it is a pretty quiet week compared to normal. They have presidents day today so no releases and then over the rest of the week there is some home sales and jobless claims. I expect that the USD will have a range bound from 1.56-1.59 this week. if you see a movement above the 1.59 capitalise on the gain.

Australia – RBA minutes released early hours of Tuesday morning. Same as in the UK and if no indication of further rate cuts down under expect the Aussie to continue its rise of all time highs against the pound.

If you would like to discuss any major data release with us so you can find out how it may affect your currency transfer please feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I think the Euro Zone is in complete crisis and it is going to take heroic economic performance to resolve it, political instability does effect a currency and this indeed will not help the Euro and investor confidence.

Months of uncertainty over the US economy is turning to confidence as recent US data has showed unemployment decreasing. New Home sales yesterday showed a recovery and benefit claims also dropped. The US is seen as a barometer of the global economy and signs the US recovery is underway helped lift confidence late afternoon. The US dollar weakened as investors looked to other assets creating some excellent opportunities, close to the best since November. At 13.30 today we have US Inflation Data which could be a big market mover. If you are buying dollars be aware that the market may take an unexpected twist late on.

Staying in North America also at 13.30 we have Canadian Inflation Data. The Loonie has been making gains on a weaker pound and if we see signs Canadian Inflation is rising, you may see the CAD strengthen in afternoon trading. 

If you are making any kind of currency transfer it is well worth your while getting in touch with us before you make any final decisions. This site has helped thousands of people save thousands of pounds on their currency exchanges. Speak to me direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

This morning – Inflationary data has been released for the U.K (09:30am)

13:30pm Retail Sales (USA) – One for those with an interest in the Dollar this afternoon with Retail Sales figures being released. Many top analysts still believe the Dollar will launch a fight back in the coming weeks and months, and some believe the Dollar will have a strong year (making it more expensive to buy). Expectations for this release is an improvement and personally I feel the release will be good, but not quite as good as expected however this isn’t a huge release so no major market movement expected from this one.

21:45 Retail Sales (New Zealand) – This one will effect the ever strong New Zealand Dollar, which has had a great few months (Not so great for Britons with money to shift over there). The data covers the last quarter of 2011 and expectations are for a drop, this may lead to a short term spike against the new Zealand Dollar however in my opinion unless we see real global uncertainty again soon the the NZD will stay reasonably strong.

23:30 Consumer Confidence (Australia) – A late release for Australian Dollar followers which will show the confidence levels of individuals have in the economy and how things are going in Australia, many clients I speak to say all is not as rosy as is being made out over in Australia unless you are in the mining industry, but lets see what this brings, personally much like the NZD I feel the AUD will stay strong unless something major happens worldwide.

Tomorrow 08:00am (German GDP) – A key indicator as to how the largest economy involved in the Euro is performing, this is followed up at 10:00 by GDP data for the European Monetary Union. A bad release for Germany may indicate that the worst is yet to come as the EMU is expected to release a negative figure for Q4 of 2011.

Tomorrow 09:30am (U.K Unemployment) – A flurry of unemployment data for the U.K which is not expected to be too good (yet again). If you have Pounds and wish to buy a foreign currency it may be prudent to seriously consider your options before this release.

10:30am – (Mervyn king’s speech) Mr King seems to be very good at making the Pound weaken, whether it be on purpose or not  and those that have tracked Sterling over the past few years will indeed be well aware of this, certainly one to watch with interest… In my opinion Wednesday will be the most volatile day and I expect it to be poor for Sterling.

Thursday – Overnight (Australian Unemloyment Rate) No huge changes to unemployment expected in Australia however as always expect the unexpected in this market!

09:00 – ECB monthly Report - The European Central bank will release their monthly report on Thursday morning, this will give an indication as to how they plan to deal with the economy in the coming monthand what has happened in the past month, we may see a hint as to whether or not we can expect another cut in interest rates as has been mentioned of late, if this is mentioned with an indication for next month, we may see Euro weakness following it.

Friday 09:30am – U.K Retail Sales (January) How well did the retail sector perform after Christmas, I feel the U.K tightened their belts during this period and it would not surprise me to see another poor start to the day for the Pound.

12:00pm Canadian Inflation data – The Bank of Canada release inflation data at noon, slight rise to 0% is expected and any change from this could lead to movements either way… again we do appear to be range bound against this currency however I feel that sub 1.55 is just around the corner unless the U.K can bring us an unexpected good week.

13:30pm U.S Inflation- Inflation time for the States to round off the week, personally I feel this won’t be a big one for the markets unless something major is thrown into the mix.

In short I think the Pound will find it tough this week, if you have a bank to bank transfer to make from sterling to a major currency or from a major currency to Sterling then contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk to make sure you really are getting the best exchange rates for your transfer along with the highest level of customer service and efficiency. I look forward to hearing from you.

The strong start to the year for UK manufacturing and industry according to the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) means the UK will not re-enter recession although other surveys have pointed towards recession. Which will it be? Well I personally would agree with the CBI and feel we will avoid a double dip recession. That won’t necessarily translate into strength for the pound however as Unemployment has continued to rise and there is also the threat of a Eurozone recession weighing on the UK. It is good to be able to provide a positive forecast for the UK and the pound however!

We won’t have the official figures for Q1 2012 GDP until April 25^th but this Wednesday sees Unemployment Data which could well move the market. Unemployment has continued to rise in the UK despite £325 bn of QE so far injected and the government will be under real pressure to see this situation change soon or risk their credibility.

In Europe the political fallout from Greece will continue to grab headlines and we could see an interesting week for the Euro depending on German GDP figures released Wednesday whilst also on Wednesday morning we have Eurozone GDP which will probably show the Eurozone in recession.

Overseas we have the G20 summit starting Friday which could well provide further information on how Greece will be managed and in the US we will have the Federal Reserve Minutes which may provide further information on the outlook for the US dollar.

If you have any currency transfers to make be it this morning or in the future, please feel free to get in touch. I can keep you posted on what is happening on the markets and ensure your funds get transferred quickly, safely and securely at a commercial exchange rate.

GBPEUR Outlook – This has been rather stagnant for the past month and due to the QE decision and also the Greek austerity measures is certainly touching the lowest points for anyone buying euros in the last month. BUT this is still much higher than your average rate last year and I still think represents a good opportunity. With UK unemployment still rising and the prospect of a double dip recession we could see still some further sterling weakness in the coming weeks. Wednesday could be a key date as we have not only German and Eurozone GDP but also The Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report. Let me know if you have a trade and I can make sure you are kept aware of movements that will affect your rate.

GBPUSD Outlook – Following last month’s news the Fed will keep rates on hold until probably late 2014, the dollar has kept up its position and has now approached a 4 month low against the pound. As always events in Greece and Europe could move the Dollar according to risk sentiments. Like last year I would expect the Dollar to weaken if investor’s confidence returns but it is worth pointing out that we are no further ahead with a solution to Europe’s debt problems. Is the returning confidence misplaced? If you have any USD trades I can keep you posted on current trends and events that will move the market.

AUD / NZD / ZAR – There has been a real return to higher risk investments of late and we have seen the Aussie and the Kiwi strengthen. This is on the back of good data coming from China and the weakness of the pound. The Rand too has strengthened massively against the pound and is close to highs touched in September. If you are holding any of these currencies and considering selling back to sterling, you are looking at some very favourable levels. Speak to me find out how we can help move your funds quickly and safely at commercial exchange rates.

If you need to make any currency transfers and would like any further information on any currency pairing feel free to get in touch and we will make sure you know all the ins and outs surrounding your exchange and get the very best rate. You can use the contact form or contact me direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Overnight the pound has finally seen a small gain of 0.7% against the Aussie due to pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its interest rates. This week the markets were expecting the RBA to cut its interest rates down to 4% and when they did not the AUD strengthened further.

Global events in Europe, China & the US has a massive effect on how the Australian Dollar performs. Investor sentiment can mean that the purchase or sell off of Aussies can move the rates quickly and vigorously in either direction. After all it is the investors risk currency of choice.

If you require buying or selling the Aussie Dollar to buy any major currency then you must keep a close eye on Greece and China. The more bad news that comes out of either economy and we should see Aussie weakness. This however is not set in stone. Australia’s biggest exports are to China and events in Europe help investors decide to increase or decrease their risk.

With current levels up at 1.4792 against the pound I can see a range bound of 1.46 up to a high of 1.50 over the next week. If you are buying Aussie Dollars with the rates of exchange so low you must make sure that you get the best return on your funds.

Here at www.poundsterlingforecast.com we will do everything we can to offer you our expert opinion on all things currency and challenge you to see if we can make you a saving on your exchange. Please contact me bma@currencies.co.uk to compare our rates with your high street bank.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information.

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used
someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly bma@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Utilising QE will help the UK’s slow road to recovery to remain loosely on track and should mean that if we do enter any recession this year it should not be too bad. The Eurozone as we know is one of the biggest threats to not just the UK’s recovery but also the global recovery. This batch of QE should support the pound for what may still be a very challenging year ahead due to overseas issues.

Always expect the unexpected on the markets. We have had QE but the pound is currently trading at the high of the day against most currencies!

If you would like any further information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Either way I feel some sort of announcement will be made surrounding it which in turn may lead to a tricky afternoon for Sterling.

Let me know your thoughts… djw@currencies.co.uk

Going against the grain I think there is a good chance we will not see further QE today. Even though there is a general concensus that more QE is necessary at some stage – Mervyn King, the Governor of the BoE said so – a recent run of data for the start of this year has shown improvements in manufacturing and construction. PMI data has reported readings above 50 indicating growth. If I were an MPC member I would vote for no change in the current asset purchases programme until we see next months data. If I am right we could see the pound strengthen as the pound weakened yesterday on the back of anticipation of further QE (like it did in January). If I am wrong I would not expect any major change as this has to an extent already been priced in to the value of sterling.

Looking to the Eurozone however I would not be suprised to see an interest rate cut. The Eurozone looks more likely to be about to enter a dangerous recession because of the economies that are suffering. I think the ECB therefore needs to cut rates to promote growth because that is what is lacking and damaging not just the ‘PIGS’ but the rest of the Eurozone and the world.

To give you a quick background, we are currency brokers and have been in the industry for years, this site was set up set up two years ago to give clients simple but informative information and now have 20,000 people a month stop by for information. 

Last year we had thousands of people get in touch with us through the site, of which hundreds have already used us and we have saved them money over their high street bank or current broker, you can get in touch with us by clicking here and setting up a free, no obligation trading facility to get a quote within minutes…. There is no harm in comparing rates even if you have used someone else for years – Just like buying car insurance you need to always shop around. You can also email me directly jmw@currencies.co.uk with any questions or queries.

I look forward to speaking with you.

Just as things had looked like getting better for the pound against the Euro spiking at 1.2098 a couple of days ago, sterling has crashed down to 1.1920 today. Euro exchange rates spiked against most major currencies bringing back better opportunities to sell your Euros to buy GBP or USD. We have been looking at events in Greece for days now wondering if they will find a resolution to cut their spending to the tune of 3 billion Euros which will enable them to get the desperatelyneeded bailout funds they require.

It seems that Greece has finally agreed to the austerity cuts but what will happen with Euro exchange rates? The issues in Europe are far from being over. To many countries are in too deep but this latest resolution will probably strengthen the Euro against a range of currencies in the very
near term. I do not see long term Euro strength and we may see the pound weaken to 1.17/1.18ish over the course of the next week and the USD to weaken to 1.34. I would then expect to see the Euro weaken to levels of 1.20+ against the pound and dip back below 1.30 against the USD.

If you are selling Euros to buy any major currency you may find that today’s agreement may bring that small glimmer of light for you to achieve that little bit more than what has been available over the last two months. Don’t let this opportunity pass you by. Feel free to contact me at bma@currencies.co.uk and we can look at your personal situation and see what options may be suited to your circumstances. In terms of the rate we will offer you please compare what we can offer you to your bank. We will do our upmost to make you a significant saving over your high street bank. Please call us to get a comparison rate.