Sterling continues to fall following Theresa May’s comments (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has a rough start to the week

Following Theresa May’s comments this weekend, where she hinted toward a hard Brexit sterling has fallen heavily with GBP/EUR sitting in the 1.14s and GBP/USD in the 1.21s.  She stated during a Sky News interview that she would consider giving up free trade for control over immigration.

I think more important however will be the ruling in regards to the supreme court judgement on whether parliament will get to vote on the triggering of article 50. If parliament do get the vote it is probable there will be a soft brexit, with temporary trade deals in place while negotiations take place. This eventuality should cause the pound to rise.

If parliament do not get the vote a hard brexit becomes the probable outcome and this could result in trade negotiations being troublesome and elongated. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the EU recently resigned  due to what he considers to be unrealistic estimations on how long brexit will take. The current target for a full exit from the EU is two years, Sir Ivan thinks it will be nearer ten.

I would expect the the supreme court ruling to come through between the 12th-17th January, keep your eyes on developments on the case as this could have major implications on the value of the pound.

UK data releases that could effect Sterling short term

Tomorrow will see the release of UK manufacturing data where I would expect to see an improvement which could cause some respite for the pound. GDP figures are also released on Wednesday and I would again expect a slight improvement. Please be aware however that any news from the supreme court judgement is likely to outweigh these data releases.

If you have a currency requirement I will happily assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will provide a comparison against your current provider and also formulate a trading strategy to suit your individual needs. You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with a broker from Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over sixteen years with the highest credit rating and one which is also registered with the FCA. Please do get in touch by e-mailing me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs.

Pound slides as May comments lead to ‘Hard Brexit’ being more likely (Daniel Wright)

Sterling exchange rates have taken quite a tumble in early morning trading today, following comments from Prime Minister Theresa May over the weekend suggesting there is a higher possibility of us looking for a ‘hard brexit’ and that control of our borders appeared to be a higher focus than remaining in the single market.

Why does a hard brexit weaken the Pound?

A hard brexit leads to Sterling weakness because it could seriously hamper trade for the U.K and a report from the centre for economics and business research discovered that all sectors that create wealth for the economy would be negatively effected. Obviously a lot would depend on any agreements that get put in place but these may take a great deal of time and the worry is that it is highly doubtful that any agreement that is eventually sought does not end favouring one sector over another, which would mean someone will end up missing out.

What this does create is uncertainty for all sectors within U.K trade and uncertainty is extremely bad for an economy, a company and most importantly for a currency so this has led to the Pound dropping off and losing value all morning so far.

Supreme Court decision to change things?

One factor that may turn around the form of the Pound is the eagerly awaited Supreme Court decision on whether to overturn the need for Thesera May to have to put the triggering of Article 50 through Parliament before moving forward.

Should the Supreme Court stick with the original decision then there is a chance members of Parliament will aim for more of a say in how things are handled which may stop a full on ‘hard brexit’ and could also slow down the process a little which would hopefully give the Pound back a little strength.

On the flip side, a decision to overturn the original result may kick the Pound whilst it is down and the Sterling exchange rates may get even weaker again.

They are back together on January 11th and we expect to see a decision in the few days after this, what this does mean is that if you have a currency exchange to carry out you need to be poised and ready to react quickly.

If you are fairly busy day to day and you do not have time to watch the rates (which move by the second) then why not let one of our dedicated, helpful and friendly brokers do this for you. We have a variety of tools available to assist you in maximising your rate of exchange including rate alerts, limit orders and forward contracts.

Should you need to carry out a currency exchange involving any major currency for you business, a property purchase/sale or any other reason then feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk personally. Please leave a brief overview of what you need to do and I will personally contact you to discuss the options available and to tailor a game plan. Please note we do not deal in cash or travel money. You can also call our trading floor on 01494 787 478 please quote Pound Sterling Forecast and ask to speak Daniel Wright.

 

 

 

Sterling strength expected later in the week, Euro and Dollar sellers should be looking to act soon (Joshua Privett)

It’s been a fairly uneventful beginning to the year on the currency markets, with Sterling exchange rates against the Euro and the US Dollar moving heavily each day, yet by close of business we’ve tended to find ourselves back where we started.

GBP/EUR has reamined around the 1.16/17 mark, GBP/USD has held quite firmly at 1.23, and GBP/AUD around the 1.68-1.70 range.

This exchange rate behaviour is indicative of a market awaiting some very important news.

I hate to flog a dead horse for our regular readers by continuing to address the upcoming Supreme Court decision and the implications this will have for the Pound, but it is incredibly pertinent to anyone planning to buy or sell Sterling for a foreign currency. Not just over the next few weeks as we await the verdict, but over the next few months in the run up to the triggering of Article 50.

For those who are not aware, the Supreme Court is currently ruling an appeal of November’s Judicial Court decision to allow Parliament to vote on the enactment of Article 50 – the formal process to leave the EU.

As in November, financial markets should react well to the decision to involve Parliament in the Brexit process. The Pound’s value increases with investors gaining confidence that Parliament’s involvement will mean the Brexit process will be delayed to some degree due to cumbersome Parliamentary procedures, and that this increases the likelihood of a softer exit from the EU.

You can also argue that Parliament’s involvement means that the aims of the negotiations and how well they will progress will be much more public. This permits greater confidence to invest in the Pound as investors and financial institutions will have a greater understanding of what trajectory the UK economy, and therefore the Pound, will be taking in the medium-term.

The expectation is that the Supreme Court will uphold the initial conclusion of the Judicial court a few months ago. Based on November’s currency movements, this will likely cause 1-2 cent improvements on GBP/EUR, similar gains on GBP/USD, and likely larger positive spikes on GBP/AUD due to the volatile nature of the currency pairing.

The verdict is expected between the 12-17th of January, so if you are a Euro or Dollar seller, it may be wise to move ahead of this coming Thursday to avoid being caught up in any sudden and unannounced spikes in Sterling value when we are told the decision.

Furthermore, on Wednesday data sets for manufacturing and industrial sectors of the UK economy, and a first look at growth for the final quarter of last year, will be released in the morning for markets to react to.

The manufacturing sector has enjoyed a resurgence following the sudden devaluation of the Pound in June, and growth in the UK economy has shown on mutliple occasions since the June vote to Leave the EU to be resiliant to the economic shocks this had entailed.

So, in short, very good news is expected to be provided to Euro, US Dollar and Australian Dollar buyers in the short-term. Two major events are expected to make your transfers more profitable, which is why anyone looking to conduct a Sterling purchase, even over the next few months, should look to how you can secure these still historically favourable exchange rates before Wednesday.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current exchange rates can be fixed in place for anyone wanting to prebook their currency transfer later in the year at current exchange rates.

Sterling Outlook for 2017 (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates have started the year poorly having fallen against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

Since rallying just before Christmas the Pound has been on the back foot as uncertainty continues surrounding the issue of Brexit and the ‘will we won’t we’ impact of leaving the single market.

At the moment Prime Minister Theresa May is suggesting that if we are not able to have full control of our borders then she will look to leave the single market and this is one of the main reasons for Sterling’s recent demise against both the US Dollar and even more so against the Euro.

This week the Pound has continued to struggle even though both construction and services data have come out better than expected.

However, the fears continue to mount owing to the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote which will affect how the Bank of England may react in the future.

Next Wednesday the UK will announce both Industrial and Manufacturing data which have in recent times caused big movements for Sterling exchange rates particularly vs the Euro.

Any signs of negative data could cause Sterling to fall and I think with the political uncertainty continuing this will clearly weigh heavily on the Pound over the next few weeks.

With the Supreme Court judgment due to come out later this month until we have some form of resolution I think the Pound could fall lower against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

If you’re in the process of needing to send money to Europe and buy Euros then it may be worth be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked in the industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I save you money on exchange rates when buying or selling currency but I can also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will sterling rise or fall on the Supreme Court decision?

The pound is fairly stable and range bound at present as markets keenly await the next direction of the Brexit. We are all eagerly awaiting the next bits of news over the Supreme Court decision and it is this which will determine the more immediate direction on the currency pairing. If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling understanding what is happening and being ready to react is the best way to capitalise on this news. At the moment we do not know when the decision will be released and this is keeping the market nervously on its toes.

Essentially upholding the previous High Court decision should see the pound rally but I think the gains will be limited. My personal expectation is for this to lead to sterling gaining up to 2% against its counterparts. If the decision goes for the government sterling will fall because I believe markets have very much priced in ‘good news’ that the previous decision would be upheld. If it falls in this scenario sterling could lose up to 4% as it becomes apparent a hard Brexit is more likely again. Sterling might retest the kind of levels we saw back in October last year.

GBPEUR Focus

After the Supreme Court decision attention will still remain on the Brexit and any good news for sterling will be shortlived in my opinion. There will still be many unanswered questions and as the resignation of Sir Ivan rogers, the UK’s Ambassador to the EU shows there is scope for further political casualties. Attention towards the end of the quarter will focus on the likelihood of Theresa May triggering Article 50 plus the Dutch and French elections. I expect GBPEUR could trade between 1.12 – 1.23 depending on the various outcomes here. If you wish to trade at these levels and wish to be kept informed of developments please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPUSD Focus

The big news on the US dollar is the likelihood of further interest rate rises. A strong jobs report has given rise to expectation we could see further interest rate hikes soon and GBPUSD has dipped. I expect GBPUSD to trade between 1.14 and 1.25 in the coming weeks. As you can see I feel the US dollar will be strengthening.

If you have a currency transfer involving sterling and wish to optimise your position with some expert insight and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk. I work as a currency specialist and have appeared on BBC News discussing Brexit and the impact on the currency markets. I would be very happy to hear from you and answer any questions and help you with your situation.

Thank you for reading, I hope to hear from you soon.

UK economic data shows improvement however the pound declines (Dayle Littlejohn)

UK economic data this week has performed very well. Markit Manufacturing released Tuesday started the momentum with a release of 56.1 compared to last months 53.6. Wednesday’s PMI construction numbers also exceeded expectation with 54.2 compared to the consensus of 52.8 and yesterdays Markit Services numbers finished the run nicely with an improvement to 56.2. Many analysts actually believed a decline into the 54s was expected for the service numbers.

With economic data impressing you would have thought the pound would have gained momentum this week, however this has not been the case. It seems the pound is going through a jittery period due to the Supreme Court verdict this month.

The feel on the market is for a sharp fall if the Supreme Court overturn the High Court decision. However on the other hand we could see the pound gain momentum if UK Prime Minister Theresa May has to seek Parliament approval before triggering Article50 and start the process of leaving the EU.

UK economic data to look out for next week is NIESR GDP numbers at 3pm Tuesday and Manufacturing and Industrial production released Wednesday morning.

When buying or selling the pound you also need to understand the factors that will be impacting the other currency. Feel free to email me the currency pair you are converting (GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCHF etc) the reason for your conversion (company invoice, buying a property) and I will email you with my forecast for the currency pair and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk.

For the readers reference the company I work for on a daily basis save clients money on currency transfers. If you are planning a transfer and are using your bank or another brokerage, I would reccomend getting in touch for a forecast and at the same time compare of exchange rates. This is free of charge and will take you a few minutes.

 

Sterling remains under pressure despite positive data release, is this a sign of things to come? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has come under pressure today despite the UK economy posting some better than expected figures in an important sector of the UK economy.

After beginning the day negatively the Pound received a slight boost this morning as Services PMI data came out better than analysts had expected. The data showed that sentiment within the services sector is positive, which is important for the UK economy as the services sector amounts to more than two-thirds of the countries economic output.

In normal market conditions it wouldn’t be unusual to see the Pound spike upward off this news, and although it attempted to the currency is currency down against all major currency pairs with the exception of the US Dollar, which has dropped in value today also across the board.

Those concerned with the value of the Pound should pay close attention to the outcome of the Supreme Courts decision on whether or not the government needs parliamentary approval before beginning the Brexit process.

This topic appears to be the biggest mover of currency pairs involving the Pound and the Euro could also feel the effects of the decision. The outcome is scheduled to be released between the 12-17th of this month and I expect expectations of the decision to effect Sterling’s value between now and then.

Other than this, economic data could also weigh on Sterling’s value especially if it disappoints considering what happened today. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss any upcoming news releases and how they could effect your upcoming currency exchange requirement.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in touch with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

You can also call in to speak with me on 01494 787 478, just ask reception for Joe. 

 

Sterling Exchange Rates Slide as Brexit Fast Approaches (James Lovick)

The pound as of this morning is firmly back under pressure against most of the major currencies with Brexit now fast approaching having started 2017. GBP EUR has slipped to below 1.17 this morning and this is most likely as a result of the new appointment of Sir Tim Barrow as the UK’s new Ambassador to the EU. The drop in sterling in my view is likely to be attributable to the perception that this change of Ambassador could help Theresa May push for the “hard” Brexit option which the markets generally perceive as high risk for sterling and hence the weakness in the pound.

Politics will be a central theme for sterling exchange rates as we approach 31st March, the date by which UK Prime Minister Theresa May will formally give notice that Britain is leaving the EU. Developments over Brexit are changing virtually by the day and this is having a real impact on the price of sterling. For up to date information and guidance with regards timing a currency exchange then feel free to make contact and we can try and assist.

Although European politics will have a major part to play for Euro exchange rates, the first major election in the Netherlands won’t be held until March. My view is that these European elections could be very damaging for the Euro although for the next three months it is Brexit which is likely to be the major driving force and which steals the headlines.

As such those clients needing to buy Euros are more likely to be hindered by the nervousness and uncertainty over Brexit over these next few months. Those clients holding pounds needing to buy Euros or US dollars for example are unlikely to see major improvements but there will be some opportunities in these markets. For those clients that need to buy sterling and are selling Euros then there could be some sizeable gains to be taken advantage of as we approach 31st March,.

On a more upbeat note the pound has received some small positive releases from the manufacturing and construction sectors following very strong Purchasing Managers Index surveys for these sectors. The numbers arrived better than expected in both cases which highlights optimism for the British economy.

However UK household borrowing has now risen to the highest levels since the financial crisis of 2008. This is a worrying development especially at a time when interest rate policy by central banks is at a turning point. News like this is not going to help drive the pound higher when debt levels are at such high levels.

If you would like further information on any of the major currencies to include GBP, EUR USD, AUD and NZD and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Exchange rates for buying Euros and Dollars showing mixed results to begin the New Year (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has begun the year without much clear direction following what had been quite a difficult festive period for buying Euro and Dollar exchange rates.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have shown some gains whilst anyone with an Australian Dollar interest has suffered the most so far in 2017, with a loss of 3 cents on GBP/AUD recorded within the past 48 hours.

Frankly, this is a return to some normality on currency markets. With the Brexit dominating headlines for the final 6 months of last year, markets were remaining flat until any little piece or morsel of news came our regarding the mechanics of the Leave process, and many other events were largely ignored.

Some are now arguing that markets have adjusted to this new ‘reality’ of a long and pro-longed Brexit negotiation and are beginning to return to some semblance of normality. Rates to buy Euros, US Dollars and Australian Dollars now seem to be paying attention to daily releases in economic performance data which had largely been ignored for the last 6 months when determining the value of each major currency.

For example Sterling enjoyed strength to begin the year when performance figures for our manufacturing sector were through the roof (as a cheaper Pound encourages buyers to come to the UK’s shores), and the Euro benefited from similarly positive inflation figures released at 10:00 this morning. This explains the roller-coaster on GBP/EUR over the past few days as both have gained value against the other.

A medium-term look at Sterling exchange rates still sees potential opportunity between the 12-17 January when it is expected the Supreme Court decision on Parliament’s role in leaving the EU will be decided.

The heavy expectation is for the Supreme Court to uphold the Judicial Court’s decision in November to allow Parliament the vote on triggering Article 50, which contributed to the strong Sterling boost that month – and is why most major financial institutions expect a mirroring of this Sterling strength in January.

In the short-term, we can look to economic data for clues on forecasts for Sterling Euro, Sterling US Dollar and Sterling Australian Dollar exchange rates.

The key piece of data this week will be Friday’s unemployment figures in the US, which will send ripples throughout the financial markets, and if last month’s was anything to go by, will likely present further opportunities for Euro and Australian Dollar buyers alike.

With a positive short-term view for anyone buying a foreign currency, and the anticipation of medium term gains, anyone looking to sell Euros, US Dollars or Australian Dollars will be wise to look at their options to protect an upcoming transfer into Sterling from becoming more expensive.

Anyone with a foreign currency purchase later on in the year would be best placed to monitor the markets over the next few weeks, and if you do not wish to leave yourself exposed in the run up to the triggering of Article 50, can secure an exchange rate there and then if any tempting opportunities emerge, whether for an immediate transfer or one planned for the future – it is a simple process to pre-book your currency using the exchange rates available that day.

I strongly recommend that if you have a planned transfer either to buy or sell Euros or Dollars before April this year, you should contact me overnight whilst markets are quiet on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I will respond as soon as I am able to discuss a strategy for your transfer to ensure tempting levels are seized quickly, and that your upcoming transfer is protected from any prospective dips in the marketplace.

Furthermore, I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation should save you thousands on an upcoming transfer. I am happy to provide a quote for your transfer to demonstrate this.

I have had quite a few new clients recently who said their previous broker suggested they had to move immediately with the formal Brexit proceedings looming, but in this market, as has been proven in recent months, there are still heavy opportunities for foreign currency buyers even in the next few weeks.

 

 

Where Next for Sterling Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound made gains against its EUR counterpart during the first day of 2017 trading, following positive UK Manufacturing data released yesterday morning.

The figure came in well above market expectation and this immediately gave Sterling a boost, although it still struggled to make any significant impact against the USD.

GBP/EUR rates spiked by over a cent, with the pair hitting 1.1792 at this morning’s high. This has once again presented those clients holding Sterling with an opportunity and considering the recent volatility on the pair and the fact Sterling is struggling to sustain these improvements, I would be very tempted to take advantage if I had a short-term GBP/EUR requirement.

We are still no closer to understanding how we will facilitate our exit from the EU, when Article 50 is triggered (assuming the timeline remains the same) in March. This market uncertainty has been a huge weight around the UK economies shoulders and as such the Pound has struggled to make sustainable improvement against the major currencies.

With the debate continuing to rumble on as to whether we are going to see a soft or hard Brexit, the market and investors are continually having to second guess the likely outcome. This means that any improvements for the Pound have been relatively short-lived and this was one of the main reasons I felt clients who were holding Sterling positions should be looking to take advantage of any short-term spikes.

The UK economy remains extremely fragile and whilst any information released by UK Prime Minister Theresa May regarding how we will facilitate our Brexit, is likely to help remove some of this uncertainty, so far we are yet to hear any real plan or long-term vision.

Looking ahead and we have UK Construction data out this morning followed by Services figures on Thursday, so expect further movement for Sterling over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make, we have a team of experienced brokers who can help guide you through this turbulent market and provide you with the best exchange rates under any market conditions. If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to call us on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

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