All credit to https://smallmodcons.blogspot.com/2011/11/uk-misery-index-suggests-more-unrest-to.html for a great article – Please check out the site as I have found it most interesting.
This chart shows the UK “Misery Index” (Inflation rate plus unemployment rate
percentages) since the 1970s. I’ve overlaid the major incidents of civil
unrest (of which there have been a steady stream) along the way. Click on the
image to see it full size so you can read the labels; (I’ve used black and white
on the labels to break them up visually, but the two colours don’t signify
anything other than a crowded chart).
The dotted horizontal line plots
our current point on the chart, 13.3, so we can compare past with
present. Looking at the trend above and below this line, it seems that we are
possibly at an inflection point. We spent much of the 1970s and ’80s above this
point and I count 10 riots between 1975 and 1985. Contrast that with the last 15
years, which have been below our current point on the chart. Although we’ve had
demonstrations against the Iraq and Afghan wars and other political protests in
that time, I only count 3 riots on the chart; excluding the most recent ones in
November 2010 and August 2011, both of which happened soon after the misery
index took a huge leap towards the line of reckoning.
In short it seems
that below, say, 13, on the misery index, people are inclined to protest against
governments but once we go over that level, the tendency to start rioting
instead of marching with banners increases rapidly. Given that the economic
forecast for the near future indicates no growth on GDP in the coming quarter
and unemployment is set to rise next year as government cuts take effect, it
seems reasonable to expect that more rioting, on a larger scale than those we
saw in August, is an inevitability (and possibly a regularity) in 2012.
Worringly, the graph seems to be currently trending in a similar pattern
to that of the early 1970s, just before the 3 day week was enforced on the back
of an oil crisis. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that severe this time round. But
with Europe looking set to implode any day now, a crumbling USA and unrest
building all over the world, the next year doesn’t seem to offer many rays of
Sit tight, be right.