GBPEUR rates have fallen continually already this year losing over 2%. It currently is at its lowest level seen in over 9 months, but will it continue? This week there is not as much economic data being released and as a result should not be as many surprises. The busy days this week are Tuesday and Thursday. Tomorrow we have UK Retail indicators, UK Productivity and UK Industrial data, 12 data releases in total. The general forecasts are for a slight improvement for the UK economy and so could be the opportunity for euro buyers to save some pennies. Sellers of the euro however may want to move before hand to limit their exposure to seeing a lose while trading at these 9 month highs.
On Thursday Retail figures are released for the UK both Month on Month (MOM) and Year or Year (YOY.) Retail equates to over 60% of the UK so is keenly watched. This is also expected to show an improvement so buyers may want to wait till then but I personally think this will be priced into the market tomorrow making Tuesday potentially the day to buy.
Wild cards this week include:
- French politics
- Italian political race
- Commentary from the European Central bank
- News with regards to the US debt ceiling
Each of these could surprise the market resulting in a 2 cent movement similar to GBPEUR rates at the end of last week. Costing euro buyers potentially another £2,600 on a €200,000 purchase.
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