To summarise GBPEUR rates have had a range of nearly 7% this year making a €200,000 purchase over £12,000 more expensive if timed poorly. This drop can be attributed to a combination of; Global risk appetite changing which has pushed the euro up and the pound down, concerns about a UK referendum on EU membership, plus a growing concern that the UK could be heading towards a triple dip recessions. Many clients are asking me is this pound weakness going to continue?
I personally think that they will yes. I think GBPEUR is more likely to fall in the next 7 days to 1.16 rather than climb to 1.18. Next week data from the UK include: Production Price Index, Retail figures and a Quarterly Inflation Report. These will all be looked at keenly as any negative data will increase the possibility of the UK falling into recession and so weaken the pound which is what I expect to happen.
As a result I would urge anyone with Euros or Dollars to buy in the near future to put a plan in place to limit their exposure. Read up on the available contract types available please get in contact on the normal telephone number or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
FYI – Potential Euro weakness in the near future currently could come from either Spain due to fraud allegations in government, or Italyas their election heats up. I personally see these as only small stories with potentially little impact on future exchange rates however.