Over the last 36 hours there has been a lot of data to take in for GBPEUR traders. Generally the picture has improved for the UK and weakened for Europe resulting in GBPEUR levels climbing. In summary we have seen a majority of Europe confirming that they have seen negative growth in the last quarter, even the engine room of Europe, Germany, only scraped some growth of 0.1%. Over all Europe is now in its longest recession since records started back in the 90’s. The UK side also had bad news with unemployment climbing even though the number of people claiming benefits actually fell. The Quarterly Inflation Report yesterday also confirmed a more positive growth prospect for the UK which is now expected to grow just over 1% this year.
Today we have seen consumer confidence coming out for Europe which reported figures as expected resulting in little movement in the markets. Traditionally in the build up to a data release the market will price in the expected release meaning that when the real figures come out markets will not move much. However if the data is different from expectation we see the rates price this in quickly creating a SPIKE in the market; whether it is better or worse will determine the direction of the move.
My view is that the Pound and the Euro will probably remain rather range bound over the next few days, trading between 1.1750-1.1850. It does seem that the single currency is going to continue to be in trouble for some time to come. Growth is still negative for a majority as a massive 17 million people are unemployed across Europe. (No wonder some MP’s want out of the Eurozone.) People will have to return to work for the euro to gain any real strength and there is a similar picture for the UK economy long term.
Events to watch out for over the next 7 days are:
- UK Production Price Index,
- UK Retail figures,
- Bank of England minutes,
- UK GDP figures, and
- UK Mortgage approvals.
Along with a few key reports from Europe. This data could move the market by upwards of 2 cents next week adding a potential cost of £2,200 on a €150,000 purchase.
If you want to be kept up to date on these releases and would like some assistance with a currency transfer feel free to contact me here, Steve Eakins via email at [email protected] or on the normal telephone number. Our award winning service has been helping people save money on their exchange for over 13 years so I am sure we can help you to. Simply put if we could not save you money we would not be in business. It could be an email that saves you thousands….
Look forward to hearing from you.