Exchange Rate Review (Tom Holian)

The pound set to make it a hattrick of daily gains versus the dominant dollar

This week all eyes will be on what will happen with interest rates as the Bank of England, European Central Bank & Federal Reserve all meet to decide their next policy. Focusing on the BoE it is unlikely after last month’s announcement that either interest rates or QE will be changed but if Mark Carney provides any hints to forward guidance then expect volatility. Immediately after his first meeting Sterling Euro & Sterling USD exchange rates dropped by 1% during the afternoon session. However, following the publication of the BoE minutes we saw the original losses regained for the Pound.

Thursday sees the ECB interest rate decision due at 1245pm with the press conference to follow shortly afterwards. Again it is unlikely that policy will change this month as typically very little happens during August but the meeting due to start at 130pm will provide us with clues as to future policy.

My personal feeling is that the US Federal Reserve Meeting is the key announcement for the week. If they decide to taper their current QE programme we could see some Dollar strength and therefore Euro weakness so if you’re thinking about buying Euros you may wish to move your currency prior to the announcement tomorrow night. For a free quotation from an fx specialist then contact me directly Tom Holian [email protected] with ‘FREE QUOTE’ in the subject matter of the email.

Overnight we saw the AUD weaken by over 1% against Sterling as recent poor data from both China & Australia has created another argument for cutting Australian interest rates. If this is the case we could see GBPAUD exchange rates hit 1.70 during August but expect the boost to be short lived. If you’re thinking about transferring Australian DOllars and would like a free quote please contact me via email Tom Holian [email protected] with ‘FREE QUOTE’ in the subject matter of the email.