Bank of England Minutes (Tom Holian)

GBP USD Slips Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

The Bank of England minutes came out as expected this morning with a 9-0 vote to hold interest rates this month. This has done little to affect Sterling vs Euro exchange rates this morning and eyes now turn to this afternoon when the Eurozone releases its Consumer Confidence survey. This is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity and a higher than expected reading could see further Euro strength this afternoon. Expectations are for -14.4.

Tomorrow morning there is a whole raft of data for the Eurozone including the following

Unemployment survey
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI
The above will give us an insight into how Europe is performing and personally I expect to see some positive movement for the Euro as GBPEUR drop to their lowest level seen since late August. EURUSD exchange rates have hit their highest level this year as confidence dwindles in the US and confidence returns to the single currency.

The weakness and instability seen recently for the US and the uncertainty surrounding the US debt ceiling that affected almost 1 million public sector workers has meant that investors have sold off Dollars and bought Euros. This has led to Euro strength across the board in particular against the Dollar and Sterling.

Friday will be key for Sterling exchange rates as the UK releases one of the most eagerly anticipated announcements in the form of Quarter 3 Gross Domestic Product figures. Analysts are hoping for a movement of 1.5% year on year and anything lower could have an impact on Mark Carney’s Forward Guidance policy and the Bank of England’s stance on interest rates and further Quantitative Easing.

European Retail Sales also come out on Friday so after a relatively quiet start to the week in terms of volatility I expect to see more movement towards the back end of this week.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading and if you have a currency transfer to make and want to get better exchange rates then feel free to contact me for a free quote Tom Holian [email protected]