Today is likely to be a very busy day for anybody with a currency need as we have at 9.30 today the Bank of England Minutes and UK unemployment rate. Both of these are likely to have a large bearing on the value of the pound and I am hopeful they could help trigger a resurgence. Later this afternoon we have UK Chancellor George Osborne unveiling the latest budget, although I suspect he will not make any huge announcements given that next year is an election year and he is likely to keep his powder dry until then. However he could help reinforce market confidence in sterling if he reaffirms the UK’s commitment to deficit reduction and how growth forecasts are being revised up.
I think the jobs figures could be the real key as if there is a slight improvement here then interest rate hike expectations for the UK could be brought forward and see the pound rally. Any improvement from 7.2% should trigger this so be prepared especially given how much GBP EUR rates have fallen in little over a week.
European data yesterday was disappointing for the single currency and there isn’t huge amounts of scheduled data out in Europe this week, but I am surprised the Euro is still so strong. This may be in part due to USD weakness as investors seek somewhere to put their money. Given we also have the US Federal Reserve Minutes out this evening there could be big swings in USD EUR rates which in turn will impact on sterling exchange rates. If you do have a currency transfer and want to get a better rate than your bank, please feel free to contact Colm by email at [email protected] or calling me on 01494 787 478 (ask for Colm) and I would be happy to help.