What will happen to Sterling this week? (Tom Holian)

Pound to US Dollar forecast Bets increase on 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed What could happen to GBPUSD?

Sterling has remained very range-bound since last week against the Euro trading between 1.19-1.20. Tomorrow morning UK Inflation figures come out at 930am with rates expected to drop 1.9% to 1.7% for February coming in at the lowest levels since October 2009. This could weaken the Pound across the board if rates are low as it would mean that interest rates wouldn’t need to go up as soon as expected.

Also out this week is the release of UK Retail Sales on Thursday and Q4 GDP for the final revision. This is the final revision so if there’s any change to the expected release we could see volatility for the Pound later on this week.

The Euro weakened slightly against the Pound during yesterday’s trading session as Eurozone PMI data was poor. However, again at the end of the week German Inflation data is due at 130pm. Low inflation has blighted the Eurozone as of late and this could pile on the pressure for the ECB to look at cutting interest rates soon . Longer term I think we’ll see the Euro weaken against the Pound if inflation continues to remain low. Therefore, if you’ve got a currency requirement to sell Euros it may be worth getting something done sooner rather than later.

Looking to GBPUSD exchange rates we have seen the Dollar strengthen by 2 cents against Sterling over the last fortnight. With the FOMC minutes revealing that the FED could raise interest rates themselves this time next year this helped the Dollar gain. Durable goods figures are due out on Wednesday and are expected to see big gains. If you’re looking to buy US Dollars it may be worth converting this soon prior to Wednesday.

If you have a currency requirement and want to save money compared to using the bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk