The Euro weakened again this week and yesterday reached its WEAKEST POINT in over 17 months!!!! A majority of this can be put down to Sterling strength however concerns in Europe continue to have an impact. My view is that these current levels will be the highest we see for the rest of the month. In 2 weeks time when both central banks either side of the channel meet is the next large event. The Europeans are again talking about introducing a new policy to tackle inflation, a topic that has been discussed every month for the last 6 with nothing new happening. As a result I personally think trading before the event on the rumour rather than fact will give traders the best price, something we have seen every month for the last 3.
The UK Bank of England is not expected to release anything however as the housing bubble grows and becomes more of a concern new policies may be introduced to cool the market. This could be anything from a direct attach on mortgage offerings, like a raising the minimum deposit needed, to a flat interest rate hike, however un likely. So there is something to be wary off.
So in summer; if you are a buyer of GBPEUR this month I would move now, if I was a seller this month I would move next week, if I had longer 6 weeks as a buyer I would wait 2 weeks but if I was a seller I would still move next week as the trend remains negative. Sellers are only going to get light relief over the next 6 weeks and I cannot see any event which could really provide any recovery in the rates in the favour of sellers….
I hope the above helps but please get in contact if you would like more information. I can also provide a quote to make sure you are getting the best price.
Contact the auther – Steve Eakins – via email at [email protected]