GBPEUR rates remain within touching ground of the highest levels seen for many years and a lot of my clients are asking now when to trade?
It is a difficult decision to make as no one has a crystal ball however you can be “guides” by the economic data releases and the expectation for each. These certainly help when you are trying to time a trade within a short period of time. If however you have the option to wait for a period over 3-4 weeks it makes it more difficult and really you should be 100% comfortable with the risk you carry by waiting. If you are not simply limit your exposure to a level that you are. My this I mean you can put rate alerts in the system of limit order, these allow you to either be notified or automatically secure a contract when rates reach a certain point. For example if you have done your maths on 1.24 and you don’t want anything lower. The other choice you can make it to whether or not it could help to split the transfers you need to make. So if you have 3 months and £300,000 to transfer you may say well that’s do the first half now and ride the other, you may be very risk averse and say let’s buy all now or even 75%. Move this amount until you get to a level that you are comfortable to risk.
Forecast wise this week I expect GBPEUR levels to remain fairly flat with little movement in the next 24 hours. The close on the month on Thursday could shake markets temporally but eyes should really be on European inflation data. Inflation has been keenly watched and is a very influential data set in the eyes of the European Central bank and could easily change forecasts on future policy change at the highest level.
Longer term we start the new month and the UK economic data release cycle starts again next week with a host of data release. All of which will have a forecasted release which will be priced into the market beforehand giving assistance on better days than others. It is only when data miss or exceeds these forecasts that we see the market move quickly when they price in the new information, this is referred to a SPIKE in the market as these are shortly lived. SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS are available here as one of the services we offer. This notifies you when these opportunities are available. To register email [email protected] with your full details and situation to be accepted to this service.
If you would like any more information on anything talked about above, or simply wish to know our live prices for a comparison please contact the author STEVE EAKINS via [email protected]