With the Scottish Referendum now out of the way, and most UK data of late being reasonably positive, it looks as though market focus will switch to the Euro. There are mortgage approvals and Public Sector Borrowing figures out for the UK tomorrow morning, but I don’t expect any radical movements for the pound unless these are wildly different to expectations.
With various bits of European data out tomorrow morning, they may have an influence, particularly if German PMI data is poor. More German IFO data on Wednesday may reinforce a view of how Europe’s largest economy is faring but all the big European releases are next week with EU GDP revisions, German unemployment and EU inflation, and the ECB rate decision on Thursday. If inflation is low, or the ECB indicate that further intervention is likely then the Euro could come under a lot more pressure, so Euro sellers will need to be very aware of what is coming up. Conversely if Mario Draghi can wave his magic wand and convince markets everything is ok as he has done many times in the past, we may see the pound lose some of its recent gains against the single currency. Likewise if inflation is very low and other European indicators improve then we may see the same result.
Given how much hinges on the next few weeks for the Euro, it would be worth getting in touch early if you need to make a currency transfer, particularly if you are selling a property in Europe and want to get the best exchange rate. Please feel free to email Colm at [email protected] and I would be happy to explain how our services work and run through some options that may suit you and help save you money.
