Huge Market Movements – Euro close to 1.40 – US Dollar close to 1.50 ! ( Andrew Bromley )

US Dollar ‘Safe Haven’ Still Strengthening

This evenings post will open with the US Dollar, as this afternoons trading concluded a 5 cent movement in the favour of the US Dollar. The key factor is the now overwhelming sentiment that the US will increase interest rates in the summer, backed up by a strong improvement in today’s US employment data. The US Nonfarm Payroll data is the figure of US people employed outside of the farming industry. The figure is incredibly hard to predict and when released at the same time as a reduced level of unemployed state benefit claimants today, the Dollar prospered. At time of print the market sits just above 1.50, definitely a level not expected to be seen! Looking forwards, the US release their Retail Sales figures on Tuesday and unless they are subsequently lower than forecasted, I’d expect the Dollar to stay is this region. The 1.50 level is a trigger for many contracts in the market so if the Retail Sales figures are strong – expect the Dollar to eventually push through.

If you are buying US Dollars I’d be inclined to act ASAP to avoid being stuck in the 1.40s. If you are selling, keep in contact to make sure that you can maximise you exchange. Tie the Dollar strength with the potential for GBP weakness in the build up to the General Election then 1.42 may be on the cards…

Crashing Euro

The Euro seems to be hitting fresh highs every day at the moment, as today saw the pound crash through the 1.39s, on what seems to be an unstoppable drive to the 1.40s. If you’re selling Euros I’d be included to still get my money out of the single currency now – it’s unlikely that a currency as weak as the Euro will make substantial gains against any currency! Part of the US Dollar strength can be linked to investors moving yet more funds out of EUR and in to USD, strengthening the Dollar and weakening the Euro.

As noted above the UK General Election will play a key part in short to medium term exchange rate levels. In my opinion I think that looking at the market trends now, 1.40+ is very definitely on the cards. This however could be put to the test we could see a ‘who is weaker’ test between the currency pair.

If you have an exchange requirement, please feel free to get in touch. Either drop me an email over the weekend with your requirement ( [email protected] ) or call me from 07:30 (UK time) on 01494 787 478.

Have a great weekend…