Beginning to see a pattern? GBP/CAD, and indeed most CAD pairings apart from USD/CAD have been fluctuating almost parallel to volatile week suffered on the oil markets. The short spike yesterday morning which brought rates up to 2.03 alongside lowered oil prices then corrected in the other direction as oil recovered from its overnight lows.
With 2.02 GBP/CAD now firmly established on the markets it seems that the run the Canadian Dollar has had against its currency pairings as of late is not one which will be corrected in the short term now that the rates have recorded further downward progression.
The oil price has been swinging wildly due to its tied fortunes with stock market health and futures on the price of oil. This movement back in favour for oil has followed the FTSE 100 closing 0.2% higher and stopping the recent slide on selling stocks.
Furthermore, it seems that low oil prices have not been harming Canadian export markets. There has been no change on the previous month where $45bn worth of goods were exported, so once again the Canadian economy is proving it can hold onto market share and this enforces further downward pressure on GBP/CAD rates.
All eyes are now looking forward to the release of Canadian unemployment figures tomorrow. We are expecting a slight fall, but this has already been priced in the market, the figures would have to come out incredibly badly for rates to move back in the favour of Canadian Dollar buyers.
I strongly recommend that anyone looking to buy CAD in the short term to move ahead of the data release at 12:00 GMT tomorrow – should these positive exports follow to its conclusion that fewer jobs were cut than expected, then the CAD will strengthen and GBP/CAD will come under further pressure. Call me for a free quote on 01494 787 478 ahead of the event, of email me on [email protected]