Sterling values have been rather changeable this week as the dust settles and markets wind up for the next round of economic data. This morning we have already had UK Manufacturing and productive figures for the UK which has started the day negative, and I expect this trend to continue until the end of the week. These figures were down as a result of holidays over the summer months, something we often see most years. Later this afternoon we have UK GDP figures also released which are also expected to be negative so I personally would not be surprised to see Sterling’s value fall through the day.
Tomorrow we have UK Interest rate decision, no change is expected however the market will be keenly watching the vote results. This is the vote by the Monetary Policy Committee which vote for change in policy, there are nine members and a majority wins. Last month they votes 8-1, one for a hike and 8 for not. It is expected to be the same again tomorrow which will probably result in rates staying steady, if however there is a fall to 9-0 expect sterling rates to fall. So again tomorrow I expect rates to stay steady or fall by a big bit.
This all points towards rates falling this week rather than climbing, good news for UK Pound buyers but not sellers.
Next week this trend however will probably turn around as Greece comes back in to the market with their election on the 20th. The last week of the month focus will be on the US and their potential interest rate and then next month it’s the IMF deal.
These events are what drives market trends, the general direction that exchange rates will run. It is our job here to help our clients with timing transfers, so deciding on the strategy for transfers but also then looking at the micro economic data which drives rates day by day.
If this service sounds of interest, if you would like live prices or more information on what could be impacting you moving forward, please feel free to get in contact. My name is STEVE EAKINS and you can email me directly if you wish at [email protected]
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