EU Referendum and impact on GBPEUR!

Will the Pound manage to break 1.30 against the US Dollar this week?


I was very pleased this week to be asked to feature on the BBC talking about the pound and foreign exchange. This was a big boost to my confidence and our credibility in predicting currency movements. Expectations are now for sterling to fall further in the coming weeks and months as the pressure of political uncertainty continues to weigh on GBP. If you are buying the pound rates could yet go further in your favour although next month is possibly a tricky one if you are selling or buying Euros with pounds.

March sees the European Central Bank meet on the 10th March with a high expectation we will see some further QE or Quantitative Easing. This expectation could easily cause the Euro to weaken which would present better opportunities for anyone selling the pound and buying Euros. However if you have Euros to sell (maybe after a property or sale or because you or your business gets paid in Euros) you could miss out on these 18 month highs.

According to the forecast GBPEUR should rise next month, I would say at the highest to say 1.34. This would be if the QE is more than expected or if the ECB also cuts interest rates sharply. If the ECB fails to cut or meet expectations (like they did in December) I would predict lows of 1.20 on GBPEUR. Monday 29th February will be an interesting day because we have Eurozone Inflation data which will give us some ideas on what to expect in March from the ECB. After March I think the EU Referendum will weigh further on GBPEUR and depending of course on what has happened rates could easily retest the lower 1.20’s. In short the pound is likely to remain under pressure, with the Scottish Referendum and last year’s General Election much of the weakness for the pound was in the weeks leading up the event. With the vote on the 23rd June there are many more months ahead which the pound is likely to struggle to perform well in.

If you have a transfer to consider involving sterling and wish for some information on what is happening and what could happen as we approach the Referendum and after please email me Jonathan Watson on This would not just be for GBPEUR transfers it would also be for GBPUSD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, GBPZAR, GBPCHF, and many more. If you have a currency transfer involving sterling 2016 is a pivotal year for the pound and making plans is a very wise move. I look forward to hearing from you and answering any emails.